In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a game breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…
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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID
UPDATE: BAL SHIFTS TO 3 L / 4 R. WSH SHIFTS TO 2 L / 4 R.
NOTES: We are entering the downslope of the season. Recharged from a few days of respite and fanfare, we are ready to put our heads down and work all the way to a fantasy championship. Beginning this week, most teams will have 67-68 games left on the season, and we are getting them in this week. Matter of fact, MLB is handing out seven-game weeks like flyers and cards on the Vegas strip. If you’ve been to Las Vegas, you know what I’m talking about. Just over half of MLB teams play seven games, and except for the four teams listed below, the rest of the teams play six. Unfortunately, other than the areas we will discuss in a bit, there aren’t many clear-cut targets based on home/road splits.
Five-Game Week: CHW, MIN, NYM, STL
A Few Areas to Target
Slap the Taste Out Yo Mouth
If you look at the last two games before the break and the 28-5 onslaught in their return to action, the Red Sox have been outscored 55-8. That’s a knockout punch stronger than Deebo’s from Friday. The team will attempt to dust themselves off, staying at Fenway Park for the whole week (CLE – 4, MIL – 3). Fenway is currently third in overall Park Factor according to Statcast (109), above average in all hitting areas. However, they may be minus their star slugger J.D. Martinez, who has sat out two consecutive games due to back spasms (as of 7/23). If rest takes care of the issue and he’s ready to go in the new week, this is a man who loves his home cooking. And with three lefties on the docket, I like his fellow righties to do some damage, too.
Lone Star State of Mind
The Astros play seven games (@OAK – 3, SEA – 4) this week against some suspect starting pitchers. Adam Oller and his 8.56 ERA will make a spot start on 7/25. Cole Irvin, while pitching beautifully of late, has regression in store for him (4.71 xERA, .255 BABIP) and will have faced Houston in three of his last four starts. I expect Yordan, Altuve, Tucker, Bregman and company to tee off in these matchups. Chas McCormick (<1% rostered in redraft, 21% dynasty) has been hitting the ball well, especially against lefties. They’ll face Irvin as well as Robbie Ray, so McCormick could be a sneaky way to get a piece of the Astros’ offense, especially if you are covering for an injury.
Trolley Dodgers
LA has a seven-game week in prime hitting environments (WSH – 3, @COL – 4). If you look below at the park factor chart provided by Statcast, Nationals Park doesn’t stand out as strong as last year. #humidor Yet, the park is on the hitter’s side in two key areas: doubles (101) and home runs (106). The park has been rising up the leaderboard as the days get warmer – it doesn’t get much hotter than this heat wave! Obviously, we like our Dodger hitters in Coors Field: 111 PF (2nd), 118 2B, 198 3B, 113 HR.
Speaking of the Rockies, they too play seven this week with six games at Coors Field (first game of the week is the last of a four-game set in Milwaukee). Furthermore, they could see up to four left-handed starters, making it a great week to play C.J. Cron, Connor Joe (60%, 85%), Brendan Rodgers (71%, 94%) and Randal Grichuk (45%, 69%).
Sneaky Marlins
Ok, this is a volume play more than anything. Miami plays seven games this week (@CIN – 4, NYM – 3), and the pitching matchups are ok at best. However, Joey Wendle (12%, 53% – SS/2B/3B/CI/MI eligible) back at the top of the lineup has been beneficial for the Marlins and potentially your fantasy squads, as well. Wendle has six hits in his last 13 at-bats before his game on 7/23. Jesús Aguilar (34%, 60% – 1B/DH/UTL) is another streaming option that has been hitting the ball well. Lastly, Miami promotes prized prospect JJ Bleday (<1%, 39%) to play left field with Jorge Soler hitting the IL (lower-back spasms) – it’s going around… see JDM. Coincidentally, the Marlins are scheduled to face six right-handed starters. Damn, the more I think about it, this is more than just volume plays. My own recommendation snuck up on me!
O Canada
While being home all week presents advantages for Toronto (STL – 2, DET – 4), our focus here is the visitors. Or, more appropriately, the “non-visitors.” Players who are not vaccinated can’t travel to Toronto and will be placed on the restricted list, which is often announced the morning of the first game.
For the Cardinals, we need to be concerned here. Already bereft of games this week, any hitter who is unvaccinated will be down to three games! According to Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “Sources say that the Cardinals have three or four players who have not been vaccinated against COVID-19 and can’t cross into Canada. It appears none of them are starting pitchers. So that narrows it to position players and relievers. It is suspected that one or two of the unvaccinated players are prominent regulars.” Please, God, if you’re listening… don’t let it be Paul Goldschmidt or one of the Nolans! Ray and I will drop word in Discord when we hear anything, and article will be updated with news from St. Louis and eventually Detroit. UPDATE: WHAW!
IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS
2022 Statistics
*As of 7/23/22; Statcast data via Baseball Savant
TOP TWO-START PITCHERS
IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK
- Shane McClanahan5 (@BAL, CLE)
- Aaron Nola8 (ATL, @PIT)
- Max Fried9 (@PHI, ARI)
- Carlos Rodón12 (@ARI, CHC)
- Tony Gonsolin16 (WSH, @COL)
- Sean Manaea22 (@DET, MIN)
- Pablo López28 (@CIN, NYM)
- Jordan Montgomery33 (@NYM, KC)
- José Berríos37 (STL, DET)
- George Kirby42 (TEX, @HOU)
Other Options: Josiah Gray52 (@LAD, STL), Taijuan Walker54 (NYY, @MIA), Corey Kluber55 (@BAL, CLE), Nick Pivetta67 (CLE, MIL), Trevor RogersIL (@CIN, NYM), Merrill Kelly80 (SF, @ATL), Ranger Suárez84 (ATL, @PIT)
*Paolo Espino jumps ahead of Josiah in rotation, but BOTH will have a two-start week with Erick Fedde hitting the IL. Walker will gain a second start in a short week for the Mets with them rocking a four-man rotation. Ex-teammate Noah Syndergaard63 could also have two starts this week (add TEX), however, I am skeptical. Much like Shohei Ohtani, LAA has been sticking to a once-a-week rule as he is returning from TJS. I believe José Suarez will get the start vs. TEX. UPDATE: I was right about Thor not having a two-step. But instead of Suarez, Chase Silseth will be called upon to start 7/30, pushing Reid Detmers to 7/31.
Danger Zone: Zach Plesac85 (@BOS, @TB), Nick Lodolo87 (MIA, BAL), Germán Márquez89 (CHW, LAD), Zack Greinke112 (LAA, @NYY), Dylan Bundy123 (@MIL, @SD), Andre Pallante115 (@TOR, @WSH), Jakob Junis122 (@ARI, CHC), Jake Odorizzi124 (@OAK, SEA), JT Brubaker127 (@CHC, PHI), Chris Flexen131 (TEX, @HOU), Andrew Heaney141 (WSH, @COL), José Suarez150(@KC, TEX), Spenser WatkinsNR (TB, @CIN), Adam OllerNR (HOU, @CHW), Glenn OttoNR (@SEA, @LAA), Kyle FreelandNR (@MIL, LAD), Drew HutchisonNR & Garrett HillNR (SD, @TOR), Josh WinckowskiNR (CLE, MIL)
*This will be the third time in a row OAK faces Odorizzi. Even the worst offenses can make adjustments and take advantage of a pitcher, as we saw in the second stanza on 7/17. Borderline call, but I’m passing with SEA’s offense humming. Heaney’s two-start status is contingent on him returning from IL on 7/26. UPDATE: Lodolo moves ahead of Hunter Greene in rotation and picks up the two-step. Same for Bundy and Chris Archer. Heaney likely to return on 7/27 instead of 7/26. (7/29) With the return of Kyle Bradish, BAL pushes Watkins to next week.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JULY 25 – 31
UPDATE: Tyler Anderson will pitch one day later @COL with Heaney delayed a day. Mitch White was called back into service.
Pitching Spotlight
Let’s do something different this week in our spotlight. With the August 2 Trade Deadline looming, we are left wondering where some of our fantasy pitchers will call home in the coming days. Pitchers’ fantasy values can rise and fall depending on their landing spots. More often, a starting pitcher’s value will rise when traded to a contender, but what if he goes to pitch in Fenway Park, Truist Park or Dodger Stadium (see ‘Park Factors’)? If a lowly team’s closer is sent packing to a top team to set up their current closer, well, you know. However, any bullpen arm is viable for a save these days, while holds are rightfully carrying more and more value in fantasy leagues. With that being said, let’s look at some names that have been floating out there in Twitter wars and beat writer columns and then evaluate their chances of being dealt.
Frankie Montas – This crown jewel of the Trade Deadline is slightly dented from spending time on the injured list thanks to shoulder inflammation. However, it wasn’t long ago when Montas took a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Mariners. Interested teams will want to make sure they’re not dealing for damaged goods. Assuming he posts adequate (and healthy!) performances following the break, teams will be all-in for the power arm of Montas. Plus, he is still under team control through 2023. Montas is as good as gone unless Oakland plays hardball, trying to get what they should have gotten by trading Montas earlier in the season. I see him going to Minnesota, who has been interested in him ever since the lockout. The need is even greater now. They have loaded Double-A depth to work a deal, possibly Austin Martin or right-handers Simeon Woods Richardson and Matt Canterino.
Luis Castillo / Tyler Mahle – Castillo’s 2022 salary is $7.35 million. He is not a free agent until after the 2023 season. These two factors alone are why you constantly hear Castillo’s name in trading rooms. Despite the allure of Montas, it is Castillo who is the top arm of the trade market right now. Now, add in a poor Reds season, and he’s as good as gone. It will be all about whether the Reds can get the right package. And if Cincinnati doesn’t get the right price, they have another alluring arm in Mahle.
Castillo’s value is high for a pitcher who has been sensational over the past month. Since returning from the shoulder injury, he has a 2.77 ERA (3.24 xERA) and 1.08 WHIP in 13 starts. Over his last four starts, the ERA is an even 1.00 with 33 strikeouts to nine walks. Braves, Rays and Yankees were three of those teams! Most noteworthy, Castillo’s four-seam fastball is back in the 98-99 range, while the changeup remains pure filth. Meanwhile, Mahle’s value could go way up by leaving Great American Ball Park. He sports a 4.99 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP at home, while those same metrics are 3.83 and 0.98 on the road. Like Montas, Mahle will need to demonstrate good health coming off an IL stint. However, after missing only a minimum of 15 days, Mahle has less to prove.
I can see Castillo wearing Yankee pinstripes, while Mahle will get a bit of a positive park shift joining the Phillies staff yet still pitch in a sandbox for his home games.
Noah Syndergaard – Are we talking about this dude again during a trade deadline? Yup. Syndergaard has been mostly solid this year and will be a free agent after the season. He has posted a 4.00 ERA in 14 starts but doesn’t have the same kind of velocity he had before his Tommy John surgery. As a result, it’s affected his strikeout rate, as he’s only struck out 58 batters in 74.1 IP. His salary also might hinder his trade value, as he’s making $21 million this year. But if the Angels eat some of his contract, I can see him moved to a contender. A reunion with the Blue Jays, perhaps? 🤔
Carlos Rodón – Some said the White Sox were wise to let Rodón walk in free agency despite an outstanding 2021. With a lengthy injury history, the argument carried weight. However, Rodón said, “Hold my beer!” The All-Star has a 2.66 ERA with 131 strikeouts over 105 innings and didn’t miss a start in the first half. It’s this last point that makes him a trade candidate. Rodón is reaching an innings threshold that would allow him to opt out of the final year of his two-year, $44 million contract and re-enter free agency this offseason. San Fran is on the playoff bubble after a rough stretch before the All-Star Game (4-14). If the slide continues, they could become sellers and have a major trade chip who they could lose should the 29-year-old opt-out. So, the likelihood here is dependent on team performance, and thus, Rodón’s future is TBD.
Luis Patiño – IKR! I was as surprised as you are to read Patiño’s name in a column. The Rays are in a prime spot in the AL Wild Card race, so why would they deal a young arm full of potential. Well, they need another bat… badly! Tampa will be without Wander Franco’s services for another 4-6 weeks. Meanwhile, the Rays have been rich in pitching depth with Shane McClanahan having a Cy Young season, Drew Rasmussen providing his usual consistency, Corey Kluber turning back the clock with steady pitching, and Jeffrey Springs having a stand-out season. With a lot of depth behind these main arms, I guess the Rays could sacrifice a pitcher who should have plenty of innings available down the stretch. However, with Shane Baz out with an elbow injury, I say he stays put. I’m excited to see this kid reach his lofty potential!
UPDATE: Patiño was sent down to Triple-A Durham after giving up three runs in four innings Sat. I get it has been rough coming back, but a little extreme, no? Could this be to package him for Juan Soto???
José Quintana – With a one-year deal in place, Quintana is one of the most likely Pirates to be traded at the Deadline. Now 33 years old, Quintana was putting together a career year with a 2.54 ERA through his first nine starts, averaging more than five innings per outing, which is a big deal in 2022 baseball. However, since the calendar turned to June, he has a 5.48 ERA (despite a 3.45 FIP), and he’s coming off two rough starts against Milwaukee and Colorado. This could reduce the return he would give the Pirates, but he has time to build up his value. I think he will move, and depending on the landing spot, his “streamability” could come in clutch down the stretch.
David Robertson – The Cubs closer is reliving his Yankee and White Sox days in Chicago after only throwing 18 innings from 2019-2021. The 37-year-old could either fill the closer role or be a setup man for a contender. Robertson has reached the postseason seven times in his career and can provide this experience for a team who is struggling in locking down games (i.e. Twins, Red Sox, Mariners, Cardinals). The last one there is slightly unlikely based on those two teams’ rivalry, but the others are likely as well as teams with established closers looking for a bridge.
Robertson’s deal is uber cheap and attractive to clubs. He should be gone, and like Rooster & I discussed in our MLB Seasonal Chat on Discord, now is a good time to move Robertson before he gets traded. Target guys who share the role or would be the heir apparent once their team’s closer would possibly be traded (i.e. Dany Jiménez, more on Oakland below). Also, the newly signed Trevor Rosenthal (SF) is an intriguing stash. See Ray’s Closer Grid for more potential targets.
Lou Trivino – Lastly, Trivino has a voluminous arsenal for a relief pitcher with five pitches, which makes him extremely versatile for interested clubs. His three million dollar salary and team control for two more seasons beyond his deal create the allure. The 6.59 ERA is ugly but also a byproduct of early-season struggles, which led him to lose his job to the aforementioned Jiménez. However, there’s still plenty to like with his 2.99 xFIP, 3.00 SIERA, 3.99 xERA and a 28.9% strikeout rate in 27.1 IP. Any acquiring team should be happy to have him. Meanwhile, Jiménez (IL, strained right shoulder) is working his way back after missing a month plus. He completed a 30-pitch bullpen session on 7/20, Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle reports, and is in the final stages of his rehab program.
Other Potential Trade Deadline Arms: Martín Pérez, Madison Bumgarner, Chad Kuhl, Michael Pineda, Daniel Bard/Alex Colome, Michael Fulmer/Andrew Chafin
MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT
Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.
Rafael Devers – 10-day IL, Hamstring (7/23)
Devers hits the 10-day injured list with right hamstring inflammation, a day after exiting the team’s series-opening game versus Toronto. It’s perceived that Devers picked up the injury while legging out a double as he didn’t seem to be at 100 percent running the bases. Rookie infielder Jeter Downs should see regular playing time at third while Devers is out. Or the team could shift Bobby Dalbec to 3B with Christian Vázquez playing first against left-handed starters. It will be hard to replace Devers’ production. He leads the AL in hits (113) while ranking second in BA (.324), XBH (54) and runs scored (62) and third in slugging (.602) and OPS (.981). Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have a higher WAR than Devers’ 4.6. This one hurts; hopefully, we hear it’s short-term.
Julio Rodríguez – DTD, Hamstring
This one is a head-scratcher. After being mysteriously scratched on 7/22, Manager Scott Servais revealed the 21-year-old jammed his wrist on the last Sunday before the break. Rodríguez missed his second consecutive post-ASB game due to left wrist soreness. Servais said the team’s athletic trainers aren’t comfortable with Rodríguez playing until he can swing a bat at 100%. Didn’t look too bad in the Home Run Derby, though. 🤔 Meanwhile, teammate Mitch Haniger (high right ankle sprain) began a rehab assignment at High-A Everett. He has been on the injured list since 4/30 but could be back by the end of this month or in early August.
Byron Buxton – DTD, Right Knee
Categorize this as “sounds like bad news but is really good news.” Buxton received a platelet-rich plasma injection on 7/20 to promote healing in his right knee, which is going through a bout of patellar tendinitis. This is a smart move to keep the oft-injured Buxton on the field more. Minnesota hopes he will be ready to begin the week in Milwaukee. Be sure to monitor.
Max Meyer – 15-day IL, Sprained Right Elbow
Meyer had to come out of his second career MLB start after only 10 pitches due to right elbow discomfort. An all-too-familiar scene saw Meyer grimace and then signal to the Miami dugout with his glove for a trainer. MRI results indicate he could miss more than the minimum. “If I feel any discomfort … I’ve got to be honest with myself and the staff,” Meyer said after the game. “I know I want to get back out there and do what I can, but I think that we need to take care of all the elbow stuff right now so I don’t have to deal with it in the future.” He had ulnar nerve irritation earlier in the year while with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp (AAA). Reports indicate this is his first experience with arm issues in his college and pro careers.
Reinforcements are on the way. Both Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo could be back the first week of August after successful rehab outings. Both pitchers should throw one more rehab before being activated, but there lies a slim possibility either could return this week (on a limited pitch count) instead of a final rehab start. Second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. is not so fortunate. A CT scan revealed a stress fracture in his lower back. He is expected to miss six weeks.
Steven Matz – 15-day IL, Torn Left MCL (Surgery pending)
Matz had to exit his start against the Reds in the sixth inning with a left knee strain. He was making his first start for St. Louis since 5/22 due to a shoulder injury. This latest ailment occurred when he tried to field a ground ball and left the field limping noticeably and seemingly favoring his ankle. This news is much worse, however, and he’ll miss more time. Dakota HudsonIL is eligible for activation on 7/30 and will slot into Matz’ slot whenever he does return. On the offensive side, Harrison Bader (plantar fasciitis) experienced more pain in his right foot during his first game with Triple-A Memphis and was out of the lineup the following day. According to manager Oliver Marmol, the chances of Bader rejoining the Cardinals in Toronto this week are slim.
POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK
→ Keegan Thompson96, RH CHC (PIT, @SF; 36% rostered in redraft, 60% dynasty) – Thompson has a 3.43 ERA on the season (3.75 FIP, 4.23 xFIP, 4.02 SIERA, 3.94 xERA). He has excelled with his fastball, which has had great movement and is generating a 33.5% CSW. This is a significant improvement from last year’s 26.3%. His offspeed and breaking pitches have also gotten hitters whiffing when delivered outside the zone. Pittsburgh is second in MLB with a 25.5% strikeout rate (25.2% vs. RHP, third). Thompson has faced the Pirates on three occasions this season (15 IP, 2 GS), posting a 0.60 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 9.60 K/9. Really like that start.
Traveling to San Fran will be a tougher task, especially since Keegan has been much better at Wrigley Field (2.84 Home ERA, 4.40 Away). But I’m not overly worried about their offense. If they try to play the lefty-righty platoon game, which they will, there is a big surprise. Thanks to his cutter, Thompson has been better against lefties than righties this year (.227/.338/.341 vs. LHP, .253/.312/.412 vs. RHP). UPDATE: Turns out Cubs play it smart to limit Keegan’s innings and road exposure. They’ll swap him for Adrian Sampson in the rotation.
Lastly, I want to utilize Thompson before we lose him as a starting pitcher. He’s up to 81.1 IP on the season, towering over his combined 68 combined 2021 innings between Triple-A and the Majors.
Honorable Mentions: Dane Dunning111, RH TEX (@SEA, @LAA; 5%, 59%) – This recommendation is contingent on him returning from IL on 7/26.
Solo Start: Aaron Ashby69, LH MIL (COL, @BOS; 9%, 81%) – Please excuse me if I sound like a broken record, but a majority of fantasy players still have not received the memo. Look, I get it. Ashby has been scuffling of late and used in a variety of ways. The Boston start looms ominously, so I’ll be starting him vs. COL only. My Papi once told me, “Beware of pickpockets and loose women, and always attack the Rockies away from Coors Field!” I expect the break to revitalize this young arm. See Ashby’s stats below in Daily Pitching Matchups. If he could just lower the walks, he’ll start getting touched-up less. He’s carrying a 56.6% groundball rate on top of the low FB%.
For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!