This week we take our talents to the Austin country club in Austin Texas for the 64-golfer field for the match play. While this tournament isn’t easy for gambling purposes I will try and give the best info I can to help us all make some money. We have a bracket for the 64 golfers, and you will want to have your 6 golfers all make it to the Elite 8 if possible, so taking multiple golfers in each quadrant is not ideal. Last year only one top seed advanced to group play and our winner was Billy Horschel. This week takes some crazy thinking, and I will break down everything as best as I can and make sure you know that it starts on Wednesday not Thursday this week. LET’S GET TO IT!!
Event Details
Event: WGC Dell match play
Dates: Wednesday March 24th to Sunday March 27th
Field: 64 golfers
Course Breakdown
So, this week is a bit different as stats for the course aren’t the end all be all and you can get away with a guy who doesn’t set up as well, but he can still win his group. Austin country club is a 7,100 Par 71 with 4 par 3’s, 11 par 4’s and 3 par 5’s. a couple of the par 4’s are short and the 13th hole is a high risk high reward hole coming in at 317 yards. We have Bermuda greens over seeded with POA and good putters can take over in match play because it puts pressure on the other golfers. We have another Pete dye design as well this week.
Breakdown by Quadrants
Group 1 and Group 16
Favorites:
Jon Rahm – By a good margin he is going to be the favorite in group 1. Last year her won his group play and beat EVR in round of 16 then lost to Scottie in the Elite 8. I really like him to advance to the sweet 16 and then a great chance to move onto the Elite 8.
Brooks Koepka – While not the same odds to come out of his group I do believe he should be the favorite here in group 16. I don’t love Brooks personally, but you can’t deny the talent he brings to the table. He is 6-5-1 at this golf course for match play which isn’t great, but it is also better then everyone in his group.
Dark horse from the quadrant:
Erik Van Rooyen – If anybody else in this group is going to advance to the sweet 16, I can see him squeaking his way over Brooks and looking at his group we have HV3 who is new here and Lowry who is 2-7-3 all time at this course. If going unique I do not mind EVR in this spot.
Group 9 and Group 8
Favorites:
Bryson Dechambeau – I know he hasn’t really been healthy as of late but if he shows up it is because he is healthy. He would not risk further injury a couple weeks right before the masters. He is the clear favorite in group 9 with only one other guy I believe who can get in over him which is Talor Gooch.
Dustin Johnson – He is fantastic on Pete Dye courses along with putting great on these greens. DJ is 12-8-1 at this golf course and believe he should be locked into the sweet 16 (obviously can lose)
Dark horse from the quadrant:
Mackenzie Hughes – Last year when he played he actually beat some top guys in Webb and Paul Casey but then later losing to Sergio Garcia in the Sweet 16 who is a match play stud. Hughes has a chance to make it to the Sweet 16 and going up against one person who should be Bryson I think he can beat him.
Group 5 and Group 12
Favorites:
Scottie Scheffler – This by no means is going to be a hot take for group 5 but he is the favorite for a reason. He grew up here and as you saw from last year where he came runner up to Billy Ho. He loves this course.
Billy Horsche l– Obviously his name is going to be here. Same quadrant as Scottie so in all reality you will see these two face off in the Sweet 16 and battle it out for the second time.
Dark horse of the quadrant:
Ian Poulter – In all honesty Poulter should be chalky this week. He will be lower priced than both Billy and Scottie. Poulter can get very hot with his putter putting pressure on whoever he plays and also has 9-3 records for this event lifetime. Poulter won his group last year but then went on to lose to Scottie in the sweet 16 who then later finished runner up.
Group 13 and Group 4:
Tyrell Hatton – In all honesty I can see a couple guys winning from group 13, but I don’t love anybody personally. I picked Hatton for this spot because he has the best record and has experience in match play formats.
Patrick Cantlay – Going to be the chalk pick coming out of group 4 for obvious reasons and I am not sure I can see anyone from there beating him.
Dark horse of the quadrant:
Christiaan Bezuidenhout – The guy is just consistent and can give anybody fits. The biggest concern would be if he makes it to the Sweet 16 and plays Cantlay, but should be lower owned in this quad.
Right side of the bracket:
Group 2 and Group 15:
Favorites:
Sergio Garcia – Yes, I have him coming out of group 2 and beating Morikawa. While this will be a tight one, I am sure Sergio has much more match play experience and has gone 12-7-1 here and then we have Morikawa who was in a pretty bad group last year and couldn’t even win a point.
Abraham Ancer – This spot was actually pretty tough for me because group 15 is stacked and hard to pick a definite person. Ancer does set up well though and grew up around here and has gone 4-2 here in the past.
Dark horse of the quadrant:
Bubba Watson – Not really a dark horse, but if I don’t go with Ancer, I will be going with bubba out of this quadrant. These guys have a pretty tough draw here though.
Group 10 and Group 7:
Favorites:
Alexander Noren – This spot was between him and Paul Casey, but I decided to go here. He just sets up so well for this week having one of the most won holes % along with being 11-3 in match play for this course.
Xander Schauffele – I wanted to take Finau but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. I have to side with the better putter in this case and one who has a better record as well even though I can see Finau moving on here.
Dark horse of the quadrant:
Corey Conners – I know I said when I wrote up Noren that Casey could have been there yes but for this I am going with Conners because he should be lower owned and if he is clicking with irons like usual and somehow can putter to even. I can see him getting through to the Sweet 16 with a chance of beating Xander.
Group 6 and Group 11:
Favorites:
Kevin Kisner – Yes, I have him beating Justin Thomas and that could screw me, but he is very good when it comes to match play. He holds a 30.2%-hole win rate and also has a record of 16-6-1. Him being in the same group as JT should lower his ownership.
Adam Scott – I know Spieth is the favorite and plenty of match play experience but I think Scott can take this group potentially and if he does. He has some high upside here.
Dark horse of the quadrant:
Keegan Bradley – Has actually been playing well lately and we all know his irons get very hot and if he can get that putter going as well. He can take this group.
Group 14 and Group 3:
Favorites:
Russell Henley – I know a lot of people like Niemann/Na but I really like Henley in this spot. He has been playing very well and with Kevin na just having a baby and Niemann prone to some mistakes I like him to take this group.
Viktor Hovland – I wanted Zalatoris but I am going to side with one of the best iron players. His putter is God awful but it’s not like Zalatoris is all that much better. Give me Hovland to take this group and the only one who will give him fits is Zalatoris.
Dark horse of the quadrant:
Kevin Na – We all know how hot he can get with the putter and with the irons. He could win this quadrant and I wouldn’t even be that shocked.
Slate Strategy:
Unlike most weeks we have a 64-golfer bracket where guys compete in a match play format while trying to advance from their groups. The optimal way to approach this slate is by taking 6 guys from separate quadrants who can then all make the elite 8. If you take two guys like for example Scottie Scheffler and Billy Horschel, you are limiting your upside because only one of them will get out of the Sweet 16. If anybody has any questions regarding this slate, I will be in the Discord ready to answer anything you have.
Winner’s circle:
Chalk Winner – Jon Rahm
Fun Yolo Winner – Alexander Noren
Twitter is @MFGTrod
