I’m a staunch believer in targets and touches being the priority for everything we should be focusing on when forecasting future fantasy production. Volume drives fantasy production. We’ve seen plenty of inefficient players bumble their way to a top fantasy finish due to volume, but it’s rare that efficiency can top volume.
Last year’s prime example of this was Tyler Lockett. Despite Russell Wilson sporting a perfect 158.3 QB Rating when targeting Lockett, the Seattle receiver finished outside the top-12 in fantasy scoring in both PPR and half-PPR settings. He simply didn’t see enough volume.
When we start looking at 2019 projections, it’s important to not just think about volume, but also what kind of role will a player a have in their offense. Nothing provides a bigger swing to a player’s week-to-week fantasy scoring than touchdowns. The six-point bonus that comes from breaking the plane can often be the difference between a winning and losing week.
The problem with touchdown scoring is that they’re often unpredictable. One way we can mitigate this so-called randomness, is by selecting players that often...
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