Injury-Adjusted Expected WR Points in 2019

Last week I analyzed what fantasy production we can expect from A.J. Green this year in light of how many games he's missed the past three years. This week, I want to expand that analysis to all veteran WRs.

You might want to read that linked article about Green first, but in expanding the analysis I found a few places to improve on the tables in that article. As a reminder, I'm using point-per-reception (PPR) scoring here, with 10 yards = 1 fantasy point (FP), TDs = 6 FP, and receptions = 1 FP. Also, this study only deals with WRs who will be 24 or older in 2019 (age = 2019 minus birth year) who already have at least three years of NFL experience.

The next table is the first of three similar tables I'll use in building today's analysis:

All WR FPG, 1988-2018

I'm using the same Age Groups as last week, but I've cut down on the Games Played categories. In looking over the data, I found break points in FP/G performance between 36 and 37 GP (over the previous three years), between 43 and 44 GP, and 4...

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Mike Horn
Statistical Analyst

Mike, our resident stat head, has been playing fantasy football for over 15 years and high-stakes leagues for over a decade.  He joined the Fantasy Guru staff in 2005.