MLB Weekly Preview: 5/22 – 5/28

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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DOWN ON THE FARM

After the first month and change of game action in 2023, MLB Pipeline made new prospect rankings for our future diamond gems. If you click the link, you’ll find their original ranks for the season as of 1/26/23, along with my thoughts. Here’s the freshly updated Top 100 Prospects list with recent news and notes for the Top 15.

Top 15

1. Jordan Walker, OF/3B, Cardinals

• Since the historical beginning of his MLB career and bewildering demotion, Walker has been struggling for Triple-A Memphis. Maybe the big club knew something we didn’t. In fact, Walker is seven for his last 95 (.073 BA)! He did break out with a three-hit, three-RBI day on 5/14, so hopefully a sign of things to come. He’s still uber-talented and the new top prospect in baseball.  

2. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers

• Chourio is 19 years old and the youngest player at the Double-A level. He has begun tapping into his power. After sitting at just three home in his first 28 games, he has hit two in his past six games, alongside two doubles in the same time frame. 

3. Jackson Holliday, SS, Orioles

• This top-ranked Orioles prospect has an eye-popping 1.196 OPS and .390 BA in 118 at-bats for the Aberdeen IronBirds (High-A)! Also 19 years of age, out of Austin, TX, Holliday was the No. 1 overall pick in 2022. He’s not as far along as Chourio, but Holliday has just as much talent. He was a single shy of a cycle, only to have rain shorten the contest on 5/16. Then, the following night, Holliday had a five-hit, five-RBI, four-run night.

4. Elly De La Cruz, SS/3B, Reds

• After a slow start offensively and beginning the year on the IL, Cruz is batting .271/.367/.588 with six homers and 17 RBI in 20 games. There are still concerns about his game, however. He has only 12 walks to 26 strikeouts in 98 plate appearances. More polished Major League pitchers would exploit the willingness he’s shown in the Minors to chase outside the strike zone. Still, he’s doing things in the Minor Leagues that most MLB hitters have yet to accomplish.

5. Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox

• With the way the Red Sox’s top prospect is dominating, it might not be long before he is promoted to Double-A. Mayer recently completed a 14-for-26 stretch that included six doubles and three homers. For the season, he has a .959 OPS.

6. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Orioles

• Our first major leaguer here in MLB Pipeline’s new ranks – it hasn’t been sunshine and rainbows for Grayson. The 6.57 ERA is ugly. The WHIP is even worse at 1.73. Brighter days may lie ahead with his 3.86 xFIP and 25.9% K rate (10.70 K/9). Strikeouts are not the problem; the walks are (10%, 4.14 BB/9). Reel that shit in, Gray-Rod?!

7. Eury Pérez, RHP, Marlins

• The 6-Foot-8 Monster, as Pérez has been dubbed in the Discord chat, was electric in his MLB debut. He followed that up with another equally impressive start vs. WSH on 5/18: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K. Although not untouchable, and these are not the most prolific offenses, but he’s passing the tests. It will be interesting what the Marlins do once Trevor Rogers and/or Johnny Cueto return from the IL. 

8. James Wood, OF, Nationals

• The IMG Academy product is slashing .282/.366/.564 with five home runs, 20 runs, 26 RBI and five stolen bases through 31 games this season. Wood had a standout game for High-A Wilmington in their 6-5 win on 5/14, going 3-for-3 with a home run, two doubles, two walks, three runs, and two RBI. His 12.8% walk rate is nice. The 29.1% K rate? Not so nice. But he’s 20 years old and far from the majors with time to develop a more discerning eye. The 6’6″ Wood has incredible raw power, which his frame generates. That’s what she said.

9. Jordan Lawlar, SS, D-backs

• Playing for the Double-A Amarillo Sod Poodles, Lawlar sent a ball into orbit in their home loss to the Midland RockHounds. Minor-league ball club names are freaking awesome! He crushed a fastball 471 feet to dead center with an exit velocity of 105 mph. He cleared Hodgetown Stadium into an adjacent parking lot, which is no small feet. Something is brewing out in the desert.

10. Brett Baty, 3B, Mets

• By now, you’re familiar with Baty’s name. Brett was off to a sweet start, peaking at .343/.395/.543 on 5/1. Then, the bat got cold as pitchers adjusted. From 5/3-5/12, Baty hit a buck o’ seven. However, the 23-year-old made an adjustment of his own, keeping his hands quiet and looking center-in. He’s had hits in three of his last five games, with a homer and a multi-hit game. 

11. Evan Carter, OF, Rangers

• Here comes another big boy at No. 11 (fifth-highest riser at +22)! Standing in the box at 6’6″, Carter is learning to use his frame to provide power. The hard work has been paying off, as the 2020 Second-round Pick has four homers and six steals with a .820 OPS over 120 ABs for Double-A Frisco. Recently, Carter laced a two-run triple against Amarillo which showed me two things. One, he has a quick bat, and he’s already getting his barrel through the zone with precision and speed. And two, the wheels, which earned a 60 scouting grade. The ball he struck went down the right-field line but only about 10 feet away from the outfielder, which gave the look of an average double. But Gone in a Flash, Cater wound up on third. He’s going to be an excellent major leaguer. 

12. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies

• Painter’s season halted before it started. He was shut down in Spring Training due to a sprained proximal ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. However, he has been throwing long-toss from 120 feet and every other day from 60 feet. The Phillies remain confident he will rejoin the club this season.

13. Druw Jones, OF, D-backs

• Jones had a slow start to the season, hitting .175 at the plate. Adding injury to insult, he suffered a right quad strain after an awkward step on the first base bag on 4/19. He hit the 7-day IL and has not returned yet. Single-A Visalia is taking it slow with the organization’s No. 2 prospect. Wise move.

14. Diego Cartaya, C, Dodgers

• I’m a little surprised Cartaya maintained his status at 14. The 21-year-old seems to have hit a wall at Double-A, slashing .195/.301/.353. He is a big guy with an explosive swing who also knows how to take a walk. Those things will all play in the bigs, but his 31.3% K rate allows another Dodger prospect catcher, Dalton Rushing, to gain steam in the pecking order. 

15. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

• Crow-Armstrong is batting .276 with four home runs, 10 steals and a .789 OPS in his first taste of Double-A action. As a result, he has moved up 10 spots from January. His epic grand slam on 4/26 was a thing of beauty and showed us a reason for the rise. Crow-Armstrong fouled off 11 pitches, and on the 16^th pitch of the at-bat, he launched the ball over the right field wall to give the Tennessee Smokies an emphatic victory.

As always, if there are any requests for information I can provide or a player/team/topic you would like me to cover, drop a line in our 24/7 MLB Discord chat or hit me up on Twitter, @Rob_Povia.

MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: Many exciting ins and outs to this week’s schedule. Overall, 14 teams will play seven games, while 16 will play six. The great news is no team will be shorthanded with five games. Excuse the hockey reference; I’m watching the Stanley Cup Playoffs as I write these notes. I love hockey almost as much as I love baseball. Alright, enough jibber-jabber about me. Let’s get to this week’s targets. I can hear Scott Bondar’s Dong Detector already going off, as home runs will be plentiful this week!

A Few Areas to Target

If you are new to the article, in this section, we will identify hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

South Park
The animated comedy ‘South Park’ shocked it viewers for 26 seasons before calling it a wrap this March. That’s roughly how long I’ve been recommending Rockies hitters when they are home all week. Colorado (MIA – 4, NYM – 3) may be the home of Stan, Kyle, Cartman and Kenny, but we should look to stream Charlie Blackmon (40% rostered in Yahoo, 21% in ESPN, 76% in Fantrax Dynasty), Jurickson Profar (10% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 53% Fantrax) and Ryan McMahon (49% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 81% Fantrax) in our lineups. The Rockies will face six right-hand starters to one lone southpaw. Also, playing the role of Chef, Mike Moustakas (1% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 9% Fantrax) can be utilized in deeper leagues. On top of the split advantage, Moustakas will handle the majority of the reps at first base with C.J. Cron (back) on the IL.

Red-hot Red Birds Visit Ohio!
St. Louis (@CIN – 4, @CLE – 3) has turn around it’s offense ever since making the dumb-ass move removing Willson Contreras from behind the dish. Maybe it was move similiar to pulling the goalie with five minutes left and down by two goals. Stir the pot! In either event, the offense is humming, and just in time to enjoy some tremendous pitching matchups.

• Brandon Williamson
• Graham Ashcraft
• Ben Lively
• Luke Weaver
• Shane Bieber (He’s ok)
• Tanner Bibee
• Hunter Gaddis

If you were keeping track, that is six righties to one lefty, similar to Colorado. Nolan Gorman has been raging hot and will continue to do so this week! I also like a Tommy Edman–Lars Nootbaar wrap around for your DFS stacks.

Quick Hitters…

• TOR (@TBR – 4, @MIN – 3; 2 L / 5 R) – It’s a mixed bag concerning park factors: Tropicana Field: 91 Statcast Park Factor, 28^th, Target Field: 107 SPF, t-fifth with Busch Stadium.
• TBR (TOR – 4, LAD – 3; 2 L / 5 R) – Poor SPF above, but they’re the best offense in baseball… Active Payroll, $58,080,366.
• DET (@KCR – 3, CHW – 4; 1 L / 6 R) – Kauffman Stadium: 108 SPF, t-third, Comerica Park: 101 SPF, t-14^th… Should be a lot of offense in the DET/CHW series on both sides.
• SEA (OAK – 4, PIT -3; 3 L / 4 R) – I take credit for Teoscar Hernández’s turnaround with last week’s criticism jinx.
• ATL (LAD – 3, PHI – 4; 1 L / 6 R) – Solid home cooking for the Braves. The one lefty is not certain in Cristopher Sánchez, whose schedule lines up with the 5/23 opening in Philadelphia’s rotation. Even if he does make this start, the second is not for certain.
• CIN (STL – 4, @CHC – 3) – Cincy will see at least four if not five left-hand starters.
• SFG (@MIN – 3, @MIL – 4) – Positive Park Shift – Target Field: 107 SPF, t-fifth with Busch Stadium, American Family Field: 106 SPF, t-seventh in comparison to Oracle Park: 100 SPF, t-16^th (league average) The Giants will see six righties, including a potential bulk spot from punching bag Colin Rea.

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
We discussed the Coors Field advantage for the home club (119 SPF, first), and here in Desperation Alley, we turn our attention to the visitors for four games. Miami (@COL – 4, @LAA – 3) has shown a better offense over the past couple of weeks and has some monsters in their midsts. They should feast on the remnants of the Rockies rotation, who have allowed opposing teams to hit .291 with a .360 wOBA at home. They’ve also allowed 27 home runs and 139 runs, which trails only Boston and Oakland. Angel Stadium isn’t quite as friendly but is still t-seventh with a 106 SPF. Both parks offer a tremendous positive shift – loanDepot park (as an editor, this name annoys me): 101 SPF, t-14th.

Finally, the Marlins will see a whopping four left-handed starters in their seven games. As a result, Jorge Soler (40% rostered in Yahoo, 14% in ESPN, 84% in Fantrax Dynasty) makes for an excellent stream this week. In his previous 16 games, he has seven home runs and 17 RBI while hitting .275 and murdering baseballs (90.5 mph average exit velocity, 23.7% barrel rate). For deeper leagues, injuries have allowed Bryan De La Cruz (17% Yahoo, 4% ESPN, 65% Fantrax) to garner some more playing time, and he hasn’t disappointed. He’s hitting .354 with two home runs and seven RBI in May. Also, he’s cut down on the strike outs, making him more appealing for point leagues. De La Cruz could smack .400 with three home runs this week!

Places to Avoid

• WSH (SDP – 3, @KCR – 3): Sit CJ Abrams & Lane Thomas.
• KCR (DET – 3, WSH – 3): Royals face four southpaws this week. As a result, Vinnie Pasquantino will have tough times turning around his struggles. Vinnie P. is batting just .088 with a home run and two RBI with five strikeouts over his last 34 at-bats in nine games since 5/11. Fellow lefties MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto and Michael Massey are also wise sits.

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 5/21/23; Statcast data via Baseball Savant

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Gerrit Cole¹ (BAL, SDP)
2. Spencer Strider² (LAD, PHI)
3. Luis Castillo⁶ (OAK, PIT)
4. Corbin Burnes⁸ (HOU, SFG)
5. Zack Wheeler¹³ (ARI, @ATL)
6. Cristian Javier¹⁴ (@MIL, @OAK)
7. Chris Bassitt¹⁸ (@TBR, @MIN)
8. Yu Darvish²⁰ (@WSH, @NYY) ⬅️ The Friars are still undecided if Ryan Weathers, who will replace Seth Lugo (15-day IL, Calf Strain) in the rotation, will slot right into Lugo’s spot on 5/23 or move Darvish up since he last threw on 5/17. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune says it’s likely Darvish will lead off the week and thus get two starts. Who would you prefer going against the lefty-mashing Yankees? ?
9. Dylan Cease²⁷ (@CLE, @DET)
10. Charlie Morton³² (LAD, PHI)
11. Alex Cobb⁴¹ (@MIN, @MIL)
12. Jordan Montgomery⁴³ (@CIN, @CLE) ⬅️ Adam Wainwright⁷⁶ will move up to pitch on 5/23 @CIN. Matthew Liberatore⁸⁷ is penciled in for 5/24 @CIN unless he’s used out of the bullpen beforehand. If that is the case, Waino could gain the same two-start week as Monty. The team wants to maintain a six-man rotation during this busy stretch of games that goes to 5/30. They will then have two consecutive off days on 5/31 & 6/1, which creates a weird flexibility. UPDATE: Libby was used in relief on 5/21 (24 PIT). He will still start on 5/26 @CLE, and Waino stays at one start for the week.
13. Kodai Senga⁴⁵ (@CHC, @COL?) ⬅️ As of this writing, Senga lines up for two starts. However, NYM have been keeping Senga to a minimum of five days rest as he acclimates to MLB rotations. I suspect a spot start on 5/28, which will also keep Senga from Coors Field. UPDATE: Rather than a spot starter, NYM will just flip Senga and Tylor Megill⁸⁹ in the roation. Megill now gets the two starts (@CHC, @COL). File this under information that should have been brought to our attention YESTERDAY!
14. Bailey Ober⁴⁶ (SFG, TOR)
15. José Berríos⁴⁸ (@TBR, @MIN)
16. Eduardo Rodriguez⁵⁴ (@KCR, CHW)
17. Drew Smyly⁶¹ (NYM, CIN)

Other Options: Eury Pérez⁶⁴ (@COL, @LAA)*, MacKenzie Gore⁷⁰ (SDP!, @KCR) POV SPECIAL, Brady Singer⁷¹ (DET, WSH), Edward Cabrera⁷² (@COL, @LAA)*, Taj Bradley⁷³ (TOR, LAD), Graham Ashcraft⁷⁹ (STL, @CHC), Kyle Bradish⁸³ (@NYY, TEX), Marco Gonzales⁹⁸ (OAK, PIT), Tanner Houck⁹⁹ (@LAA, @ARI), Dane Dunning¹²³ (@PIT, @BAL) POV SPECIAL

*I can see MIA working in a spot starter to give their young arms an extra day. As presently set, the whole staff will be on regular rest during a stretch of 13 straight games. Cabrera’s two-step appears to be safe, but Pérez could lose his due to a spot starter (Tues/Sun). Plus Braxton Garrett⁸⁸ could slide to @LAA if you are deploying him.

Danger Zone: Gavin Stone¹²⁴ (@ATL, @TBR)*, Michael Lorenzen^NR (@KCR, CHW) POV SPECIAL, Josh Fleming^NR (TOR, LAD), Tommy Henry^NR (@PHI, BOS), Hunter Gaddis^NR (CHW, STL), Luis Medina^NR (@SEA, HOU), Luis L. Ortiz^NR (TEX, @SEA)*, Chase Anderson^NR & Austin Gomber^NR (MIA, NYM), Brandon Williamson^NR (STL, @CHC), Colin Rea^NR (HOU, SFG)

*Stone will get the call to replace Dustin May^IL (forearm). He’s a great talent (MLB PIpeline’s No. 44 prospect, Fangraphs’ No. 61, LAD’s No. 4), but these matchups are a tough ask for any rookie! Michael Grove will head from the Taxi Squad to make a full rehab now that Julio Urías^IL (hamstring strain, see IL Report) is also on the shelf. So he won’t be available right away. Bobby Miller (MLB Pipeline No. 19 prospect, Frangraph’s No. 31, LAD’s No. 2) is also an option with the two hurlers down and out, but he hasn’t had enough minor-league innings this season to be viable in my opinion. Unless they roll a bullpen game, LAD may not have a choice on 5/23 but to promote Miller. UPDATE

*Also, Ortiz has been overmatched so far in the bigs and may only get one more start. Vince Velasquez could be good to go after making his first rehab start on 5/20 (4.2 scoreless innings, 63 PIT). However, the team is undecided if they’ll have him throw one more rehab start as of this writing. Either way, it’s a precarious spot, much to my chagrin. UPDATE: Velasquez will return this weekend after only one rehab. However, Ortiz will stay with the big club and pitch on 5/28. Instead, a scuffling Roansy Contreras could head to the pen if a six-man is not employed (doubtful with off days ahead). (5/27) Now VV is hurt again and DTD, so Contreras is TBD, and I’m running out of colors. Also Zach Davies is back in our lives, extinguishing Henry’s second start. Expect either Brandon Pfaadt or Ryne Nelson to be sent down (it is the prior).

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR MAY 22 – 28

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that may already be listed, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs. I will update you early in the week.

This just in…

Logan Webb, Giants – DTD, Back Tightness

Webb worked six scoreless innings on 5/20 before exiting with back tightness. Webb downplayed the issue after the game, but Giants manager Gabe Kapler said the 26-year-old right-hander was still experiencing some soreness the following day and could be sent for an MRI exam. Monitor his status leading up to 7:40 pm EDT lock on 5/22. 

Julio Urías, Dodgers – 15-day IL, Left Hamstring Strain Retro (5/19)

Urías was placed on the 15-day IL with a left hamstring strain. Urías gave up six runs, including four homers, in three innings in his start against the Cardinals on 5/18. (See Top Two-Start Pitchers for rotation replacements)

Justin Turner, Red Sox – DTD, Left Knee Soreness

Turner had to exit the Red Sox’s 6-1 victory in San Diego because of left knee soreness and was out of the lineup for the remainder of the three-game series against the Padres. Sox Manager Alex Cora said that Turner will “hopefully” be back in the lineup on 5/22. His teammate Adam Duvall (distal radius fracture in left wrist) has begun to swing the bat. The righty slugger hit off the tee on 5/19 and hit soft toss on 5/20. Duvall stated his goal is to return the first day he is eligible, which is 6/9 at Yankee Stadium, and Cora didn’t rule it out. “I think there’s a chance, yeah,” Cora said.

Jorge Polanco, Twins – 10-day IL, Left Hamstring Strain Retro (5/18)

The second baseman felt his left hamstring tighten up while running to first base on his fourth-inning groundout in the Twins’ loss to the Dodgers mid-last week. After trying to nurse, Polanco will take 10 to get things straightened out. Edouard Julien was recalled from Triple-A St. Paul and will see time at the keystone sack.

Medical Updates…

• Jacob deGrom, Rangers: deGrom (right elbow inflammation) threw a 25-pitch bullpen session on 5/19. The right-hander said he feels like he’s “turned a corner” and hopes the next bullpen session will include an up-down, but there is still no timetable for his return.
• Tyler Glasnow, Rays: Glasnow (left oblique strain) made his final rehab outing with Triple-A Durham on 5/21 (6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 HRA), which would put him in line to return from the IL against the Dodgers on 5/26 at Tropicana Field.
• Garrett Whitlock, Red Sox: Whitlock (right elbow ulnar neuritis) made the second and final start of his Minor League rehab assignment on 5/;21 for Triple-A Worcester, firing 4.2 scoreless innings. He is likely to be activated by the Red Sox to start on 5/27 @ARI.
• Lance McCullers Jr., Astros: McCullers (forearm) was initially to miss only the first 4-6 weeks of the season. Then, he was expected to return in June. Now, Astros general manager Dana Brown says that McCullers isn’t expected to return from the IL until “somewhere closer to the All-Star break, or after,” Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. Glad I didn’t avoid Hunter Brown during Draft Season!
• Triston McKenzie, Guardians: McKenzie (right teres major strain) made his first rehab start on 5/20 for Triple-A Columbus and pitched three scoreless innings with four strikeouts.
• Tarik Skubal, Tigers: Skubal (flexor tendon surgery recovery) threw another bullpen session on 5/20, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports. A return to the Detroit rotation by late June seems possible.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Dane Dunning¹²⁶, RH TEX (@PIT, @BAL; 50% rostered in Yahoo, 15% in ESPN, 65% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Dunning has a 1.69 ERA to go along with a 2.87 FIP and 3.89 xERA. He is throwing his cutter 28.3% of the time, which is a massive increase from the 11.9% usage a year ago. The pitch is playing well off his sinker, thrown at a 29.1% usage rate. Overall, he has shown a nice balance within his pitch repertoire. Dunning also throws a slider (19.4%), changeup (14.3%), curve (5%) and a rare four-seam fastball (3.9%). Six pitches! This guy thinks he’s Darvish or CBass lol. Anyway, his HR/FB has drastically decreased due to the cutter, and his CSW on the pitch has increased from 27.7% in 2022 to 32.2% this season. Furthermore, he is maintaining his strength – a 50%+ GB rate.

Finally, he gets two decent matchups this week with some great park factors for pitching. PNC Park has a 99 Statcast Park Factor (t-18^th). Also, the once hitters’ havan Camden Yards has a surprsing 91 SPF, tied for second-lowest in MLB.

Honorable Mention: MacKenzie Gore⁷⁰, LH WSH (SDP!, @KCR; 54% rostered in Yahoo, 26% in ESPN, 95% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Besides the revenge narrative, there is much to like about Gore this week. First, Gore’s underlying numbers match his 3.69 ERA – 3.63 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA, 3.73 xERA. Secondly, the velo is up a tick on all of his pitches, and the pitch shade of his curveball and slider has been exquisite. Normally, I would have listed Gore ahead of Dunning, but MacK may not be available in your league, so that’s why he’s here.

One-Start Pitcher: Reid Detmers⁵⁰, LH LAA (MIA; 39% rostered in Yahoo, 31% in ESPN, 88% in Fantrax Dynasty) – In case I’m wrong about Miami’s offense this week, it plays to hedge our bets. Plus, both streaming situations can pay off simultaneously. While not pitching poorly, Detmers hasn’t exactly lived up to our expectations. The ERA has swelled to just short of five. However, he has a 3.45 FIP and 3.81 xFIP, so positive regression is in store. In his last outing against Minnesota, he struck out a whopping 12 batters in 5.2 IP. He had a 39% CSW, which was much improved from his 29.5% on the season. The slider has been electric and finally netting the results we desire.

Ultra Sneaky: Michael Lorenzen^NR, RH DET (@KCR, CHW; 13% rostered in Yahoo, 4% in ESPN, 50% in Fantrax Dynasty)

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Paul Hickey’s FAAB Values!