MLB Weekly Preview: 7/31 – 8/6

In the following MLB weekly preview, you will find a hitter breakdown for all 30 teams, two-start and overall pitching rankings and the latest IL info to dominate Fantasy Baseball…

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MLB GAME BREAKDOWN GRID

NOTES: This upcoming week is a juicy one. Many teams have seven-game schedules (12), which have been few and far between lately. Sixteen teams get six games, so we’ll do some digging to see what edges lie with them. Let’s figure out the best way for you to attack and get yourself a win in Week 19. Of course, several pieces of this MLB Weekly Preview are subject to change with the Trade Deadline looming. For up-to-date activity and roster changes, Ray does a tremendous job tracking transactions and offers immediate analysis of fantasy game impact.

➡️RAY’S MLB TRADE DEADLINE DIARY IS LIVE & FREE!⬅️

Five-Game Week: DET (@PIT – 2, TBR – 3), OAK (@LAD – 3, SFG – 2) ← B2B five-game weeks… I’d be furious if it weren’t the A’s!

A Few Areas to Target

This section identifies hitters to stream, fringe-bat tiebreakers, platoon edges and studs set up for a huge week!

Strange Brew
The Brewers (@WSH – 3, PIT – 4) are one of the teams playing seven games in seven days this week. And just look at those mouth-watering matchups! There have been plenty of cold Brews in Milwaukee lately. As a team, they’ve only scored 40 runs in the last 18 days. But remember, it’s not about what their hitters have done, but what they will do. If we select the right ones to target this week, we’ll hit paydirt with K-dirt. The Nats and Bucs pitching staffs have given up the first and second-most runs in baseball for July. Already, new Brewer Carlos Santana (12% rostered in Yahoo, 20% in ESPN, 54% in Fantrax Dynasty) is acclimating himself quite nicely in his new digs with a long fly on 7/30. Recently, he was red-hot while in the Pirates clubhouse and brings insight from Pittsburgh.

However, Santana isn’t the only Brewer bat to target this week. Since making his MLB debut, Sal Frelick (41% Yahoo, 16% ESPN, 74% Fantrax) has been as advertised. He’s scored eight runs and has a 7:5 BB/K ratio. He has hit a home run as well, but the power expectations need to be tempered a bit. He hit just 15 home runs in 805 career minor league games and profiles similar to Andrew Benintendi. The batting average should stay high, and he’s got enough speed to steal double-digit bases for the rest of the season. Look for him to have a solid all-around week as the lefty bat will face five righty starters in seven games. 

In July, William Contreras has a .346 batting average with 11 XBH and 17 RBI. Last time I checked, that is some good production from the catcher spot. His 19.4% strikeout rate on the season is a career-low. His 51.5% hard-hit rate and 76.4% contact rate are also career marks. The power has been down, but I have zero complaints. He is a top-10 catcher and should be starting in all formats this week!

Snake Eyes
Arizona hits the road this week for a four-game set with division foe San Francisco Giants while tacking on a three-game Interleague matchup with the Twins. Oracle Park (Statcast Park Factor: 98, t-18^th) represents a negative park shift for the D-backs, but the state of San Fran’s pitching could negate that lol. Plus, we target Target Field as we will see below. Despite leaving Chase Field this week, the D-backs are rattling on the road this year with 270 runs (4^th MLB). They’ll also face at least five right-handers on the bump with a possible sixth in an opener. Against RHP, they have a .772 OPS as a team.

Alek Thomas (2% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 40% Fantrax) is what we call in the DFS world a free square. However, his lefty bat has been fierce in the Arizona lineup. In his last 12 games, Thomas is hitting .277 with seven XBH, eight runs scored and six RBI. He’s a better points play, as his barrel rate isn’t great and can hurt you in the power department. There have been some trade rumblings around Thomas, but if he’s not, he should be a sneaky good producer in Week 19. For deeper leagues, consider Emmanuel Rivera (2% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 40% Fantrax) at third base/corner infield. In July, he’s hitting .245 with three home runs, and he’s scored seven runs in 16 games. For the year, he has an excellent 91.4 MPH average exit velocity, and his 50.6% hard-hit rate is a pleasant surprise, resulting in some XBH.

Quick Hitters…

• NYY (TBR – 3, HOU – 4; 2 L / 5 R): Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton get home-field advantage all next week and are bound to hit some long flies. Young rookie Anthony Volpe is picking up the pace with hits in six of his last eight games, and old fogy DJ LeMahieu has too. They can help, but my belief wanes, especially since Yankee Stadium has favored the pitcher, and both opponents feature quality arms. Yet, a returning Aaron Judge stirs the drink. #LetsRock
• BOS (@SEA – 3, TOR – 3): BoSox get six opposing righty starters this week, making it a great week to play Jarren Duran and Triston Casas along with their fellow lefty mainstay batters. 
• TOR (BAL – 4, @BOS – 3): Blue Jays are saved due to a trip to Fenway Park (109 SPF, second). However, Daulton Varsho has been a big-time disappointment in his first year north of the border. His .211 BA and .630 OPS are the lowest since his first 100 ABs in the bigs. He is regularly sitting against fellow lefties now after initially handling them. And in the last two weeks, he is slashing .194/.250/.233. You can’t even start him as a catcher right now. 
• LAA (@ATL – 3, SEA – 4; 7 RHP!): Truits Park is currently equal to Great American Ball Park in SPF at 104 (t-5^th). God bless Georgia humidity unless you’re a resident in Atlanta. Also, Angel Stadium plays well for hitters (100 SPF, 118 HR, 120 3B) and not just for the great Shohei Ohtani. Hunter Renfroe is slashing .259/.331/.882 at home with 11 of his 16 long flies. Delicious Mickey Moniak (57% Yahoo, 24% ESPN, 66% Fantrax) and Mike Moustakas (5% Yahoo, 2% ESPN, 20% Fantrax) put the “Mmmmm” in must stack with all of those righties.
• TEX (CHW – 3, MIA – 3; 1 L / 5 R): Let’s root for an open roof! #ALWAYSTEXAS
• HOU (CLE – 3, @NYY – 4; 1 L / 6 R): Another one of those teams with below-average park factors for hitters yet edges in XBH. With seven games against some meaty pitchers, you are starting your Astros studs!
• WSH (MIL – 3, @CIN – 3: 2 L / 4 R): Nats continue to be an excellent streaming source as their hot young offense shineS in the second half. Nationals Park promotes baserunners, and Great American Ball Park is self-explanatory. Jeimer Candelario (46% Yahoo, 19% ESPN, 81% Fantrax), Luis Garcia (17% Yahoo, 12% ESPN, 63% Fantrax) and Joey Meneses (51% Yahoo, 21% ESPN, 77% Fantrax) all worked out last week. CJ Abrams truthers are reaping the benefits right now. 
• ATL (LAA – 3, @CHC – 3; 2 L / 4 R): Good hitting park factors, plus they catch the easy side of each team’s rotation.
• PHI (@MIA – 4, KCR – 3; 2 L / 5 R): Poor hitting park factors, so temper expectations or go with other seven-game options. Phils do have favorable matchups, but Sandy Alcantara remembered how to pitch.
• STL (MIN – 3, COL – 3; 2 L / 4 R): Busch Stadium is third in SPF with 106. Joe Ryan has been struggling, and Colorado’s staff is laughable.
• COL (SDP – 3, @STL – 3; 2 L / 4 R): Only thing better would be all six at Coors!

If You Stink of Desperation Due to the Injured List…
People may have forgotten about key Minnesota Twin hitters on the waiver wire. MIN (@STL – 3, ARI – 3; 1 L / 5 R) enjoys great hitting park factors all week despite playing a league-average six games. First, they travel to Busch Stadium (106 SPF, third) to take on the Cards. Secondly, they head home to Target Field (102 SPF, t-7^th), which has been an extra-base hit factory. Alex Kirilloff (38% Yahoo, 10% ESPN, 76% Fantrax) is slashing .289/.327/.689 with 9 XBH, 4 HR and 14 RBI over the last two weeks. Shoulder soreness kept him from the lineup for a day last week, so be sure to check his health status before making the addition. He’s come back with some whiffs and has a 34.7% strikeout rate in the sample (26.5% K rate on the year).

If your league grades strikeouts harshly, you could instead (or alongside) stream Max Kepler (6% Yahoo, 4% ESPN, 41% Fantrax). He too has been hot over the last two weeks: .319/.340/.553. Bur Kepler comes with a tidy 21.8% K rate. Lastly, if Edouard Julien is available in your league (50% Yahoo, 11% ESPN, 68% Fantrax), it would be smart to swoop him up for 2B, MI or Utility. Julien has a .359/.490/.641 slash line with a triple, three home runs, a stolen base and a 9:13 BB:K ratio over the last two weeks. The lefty will see his fair share of playing time with five righties on the mound to a lone lefty starter. This also aids Kirilloff and Kepler!

See also Cubs, Chicago (CIN – 4, ATL – 3).

Places to Avoid

At first glance, Oriole hitters look like a no-brainer with seven games – @TOR – 4, NYM – 3. Not so fast! The overall SPF at Rogers Centre does them no favors, and their home park has been league-average most of the year. I like them to get hits at home versus the potential post-trade deadline carcass of a Mets pitching staff. However, the beginning of the week will be difficult.

After a brief renaissance, Anthony Santander has hit the skids again – 6/48 (.125) last 13 games. With the health of the Orioles Outfield, he is forced to trot back out there, game after game, which makes him a reliable source of ABs, but that’s about it. I don’t see it getting better based on the schedule this week. Despite being 9/25 (.360) with 4 XBH against Hyun Jin Ryu & Yusei Kikuchi, the BvP is poor everywhere else. Furthermore, his xBA is 25 points lower, xSLG is 55 points lower, and xwOBA is 25 points lower. His barrel rate is down a smidge too, from 11.6% last season to 10.9% this year, making his increase in hard-hit rate matter less.

Austin Hays is DFT right now – Don’t fucking touch. He’s batting .190 with an unsightly .510 OPS, .095 ISO and .223 wOBA despite a .244 BABIP for July.  

IMPORTANT PARK FACTORS

**2023 Statistics**

*As of 7/30/23 – Statcast data via Baseball Savant. Also, Ray Flowers compiled an excellent piece focusing on the total bases produced at each ballpark (including lefties and righties). If you need more information than what appears above, I suggest you check it out!

TOP TWO-START PITCHERS

IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE – SUPERSCRIPT NUMBER IS OVERALL RANK

1. Zac Gallen⁵ (@SFG, @MIN)
2. Framber Valdez⁷ (CLE, @NYY) ⬅️ Valdez will lose his second start due to the acquistion of Justin Verlander and the returning José Urquidy. Not exactly a bad thing so he can rest up from his no-no!
3. Corbin Burnes⁹ (@WSH, PIT)
4. Tyler Glasnow¹² (@NYY, @DET)
5. George Kirby¹⁶ (BOS, @LAA)
6. Pablo López²⁰ (@STL, ARI) ⬅️ Dallas Keuchel will enter the Twins’ rotation on 8/6 due to Joe Ryan’s inury. López will instead take the ball on 8/7 @DET.
7. Dylan Cease²¹ (@TEX, @CLE) ⬅️ As of this writing, Cease is the probable pitcher for 8/2 @TEX and is not in line for a two-start week. However, after trading away Giolito and Lynn, they may have to move Cease up to 8/1 with Jesse Scholtens used over this past weekend. Hoping I’m right here! Nope, I was not. Scholtens will pitch 8/1 with Cease’s name in trade mix. Although word is he stays and pitches on 8/2 @TEX.
8. Sandy Alcantara²⁵ (PHI, @TEX)
9. Justin Steele³⁴ (CIN, ATL)
10. Marcus Stroman³⁶ (CIN, ATL)
11. Charlie Morton³⁸ (LAA, @CHC)
12. Chris Bassitt³⁹ (BAL, @BOS)
13. Freddy Peralta⁴⁰ (@WSH, PIT) ⬅️ I should have kept it the way I orginally had it. Brewers will indeed give Peralta the extra day rest by brining back Brandon Woodruff on 8/6.
14. Brayan Bello⁴¹ (@SEA, TOR) ⬅️ Chris Murphy should pitch in bulk behind John Schreiber on 8/5, and Nick Pivetta is in line to start on 8/6, which indeed does push Bello’s second start to next week.
15. Taijuan Walker⁴⁵ (@MIA, KCR)/
16. Alex Cobb⁴⁶ (ARI, @OAK) ⬅️ Illness pushes Cobb to 8/1 and likely out of his second start this week. The tandem of Jakob Junis & Alex Wood was mildly successful in his stead and may go again in Oakland. Cobb is the official starter for 8/6 on MLB.com as of 10:30am ET. Looks like Gabe may switch back now that Cobb is feeling well. And lefty Wood would line up to face the Angels and slow Shohei Ohtani down, if that’s even possible!
17. Kyle Bradish⁴⁷ (@TOR, NYM)
18. Jon Gray⁴⁸ (CHW, MIA) ⬅️ Gray could gain a second start if Martín Pérez leaves rotation. Instead, Andrew Heaney⁸¹ will gain the second stanza with Perez leaving rotation. Heaney will now start on 8/1, and Gray moves to 8/5, providing him with a cushy twelve days of rest. Something may be up with Gray after getting knocked around lately. Maybe Gray & Perez will be used in tandem; nothing confirmed, just conjecture.
19. Andrew Abbott⁵² (@CHC, WSH)*
20. Ranger Suárez⁵⁵ (@MIA, KCR) POV SPECIAL
21. Bryce Miller⁵⁷ (BOS, @LAA)*

*INNINGS WATCH: Andrew Abbott enters Week 19 with 115.2 IP between Double-A, Triple-A and the Majors. Over his previous two professional seasons (Double-A & below), he fired 120 (2021) and 118 innings (2022). He is probably nearing his innings max, so utilize him while you still can! Also, Bryce Miller is 38 innings away from his 2022 total.

Other Options: Carlos Rodón⁶³ (TBR, HOU), Kyle Gibson⁶⁶ (@TOR, NYM), J.P. France⁷³ (CLE, @NYY) POV SPECIAL, Seth Lugo⁷⁴ (@COL, LAD), Lance Lynn⁸⁰ (OAK, @SDP), Edward Cabrera^AAA (PHI, @TEX), Griffin Canning^IL (@ATL, SEA), Johan Oviedo⁸⁹ (DET, @MIL), Miles Mikolas⁷¹ (MIN, COL*) ⬅️ Pending appeal (would only count on the first start, but Jack Flaherty will only start on 8/2 for sure.

Danger Zone: Matt Manning¹⁰⁰ (@PIT, TBR), José Quintana¹³⁸ (@KCR, @BAL) POV SPECIAL, Chase Silseth¹⁴⁰ (@ATL, SEA), Jake Irvin¹⁴⁷ (MIL, @CIN), Ryne Nelson^NR (@SFG, @MIN), Ben Lively^IL (@CHC, WSH), Zack Greinke^NR (NYM, @PHI), Austin Gomber^NR (SDP, @STL), Noah Syndergaard^NR (@HOU, CHW)*, Jesse Scholtens^NR (@TEX, @CLE)

*Syndergaard gets a new lease on life in Cleveland with the Guardians. Thanks, but no thanks. Was actually having a good start before having a comebacker hit his lower right leg. Confirmed for 8/5.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS FOR JULY 31 – AUG 6

SP TRADE UPDATES…

Michael Lorenzen is now a Phillie and will start on 8/3 @MIA. Philadelphia will roll with a six-man rotation until 8/15 (Week 21), when they play five games. Cristopher Sánchez & Ranger Suárez are on the bubble, but Lorenzen does have mulit-inning relief experience as well. Also, Aaron Nola will now face KCR on 8/4. I’d say it’s bonus, but KC has been on a nice little run of late.

MLB WEEKLY PREVIEW | INJURED LIST REPORT

Besides names that appear elsewhere, here is the latest injury news on a few of your fantasy studs.

This just in…

Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers – 15-day IL, Right Forearm Strain (Retro 7/27)

The struggling Eovaldi has made one start since the All-Star break. At first, it was a rest issue with a dip in velocity, but everything was fine. Then it was elbow soreness which cost him another start, but the MRI was clean. Now, it’s a forearm strain. Everything is not fine. Newly acquired Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery will keep the Rangers rotation afloat. Yet, those who roster Eovaldi need to wait and see what the doctors say.

Taylor Ward, Angels – 60-day IL, Facial Fractures

Ward was hit in the face by a pitch from wildman Alek Manoah and had to be carted off the field this past weekend against the Blue Jays. Ward went to the hospital for further testing, and he was diagnosed with facial fractures. He’s expected to need surgery, and Angels manager Phil Nevin said there’s no timetable for his return. Ouch! The Angels have brought in Randal Grichuck and  C.J. Cron from Colorado to stem the tide of a crumbling lineup.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers – DTD, Hamstring

Martinez was in the Dodgers’ lineup on 7/30, but he was replaced by Chris Taylor before Martinez took his first at-bat. J.D., who has dealt with hamstring issues this season, was scheduled for an MRI to determine the severity of the injury and how long he might be out. Meanwhile, teammate Will Smith (DTD, Left Elbow Contusion) was replaced by Austin Barnes in the fourth inning of the series finale after he was hit on the left elbow by a pitch in the first inning. Smith said X-rays on the elbow were negative. Not to lump on, but Mookie Betts was scratched from game two of the series due to right ankle soreness. He remained out of the lineup on 7/30 and is listed as DTD. Aren’t we all? Hopefully a day off on 7/31 will cure all that ails. 

Ha-Seong Kim, Padres – DTD, Right Shoulder Jam

In their series finale, Kim collided with catcher Sam Huff as he scored on a sacrifice fly. Kim dove headfirst into the plate and jammed his right shoulder as he collided with Huff’s knee. Kim exited the game, though the team was optimistic that he wouldn’t miss extended time. Fortunately, San Diego begins their six-game week on Monday for Weekly Leagues.

Jonathan India, Reds – 10-day IL, Plantar Fasciitis (Retro 7/29)

India was placed on the 10-day injured list with plantar fasciitis in his left foot — one day after he was scratched from the Reds’ lineup. Rookie shortstop Matt McLain could slide over to second base, with Elly De La Cruz shifting from third base to shortstop. Spencer Steer is the main benefactor here for fantasy with third base.

Medical Updates…

• Starling Marte, Mets: Marte is no longer experiencing the waves of migraines that sidelined him in the second half of July. He intends to travel with the team for its Aug. 1-3 road trip to Kansas City and stands a good chance of being activated there.
• Nestor Cortes, Yankees: Cortes (left rotator cuff strain) tossed four scoreless innings for Double-A Somerset on 7/28, permitting two hits and one walk while striking out five (49 pitches/36 strikes). Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Cortes “looked really good to me.” He will pitch one more rehab start on either 8/2 or 8/3, putting him on track for activation 8/7-8 @CHW (Week 20). UPDATE: Cortes announced earlier today he was cutting his rehab early for a return this weekend against the Astros. Seemed odd at the time, and know we know why after the Domingo Germán announcement. Kudos to being a good teammate and respecting privacy. Easy to forget these guys are people who battle real issues like you and I. Cortes will pitch on 8/5 vs. HOU on seven days rest.
• Max Fried, Braves: In what might have been his final rehab start, Fried (left forearm strain) tossed 4.1 innings and threw 79 pitches for Triple-A Gwinnett on 7/29. He allowed two runs and struck out four batters. Fried could be activated to start on 8/4 against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, but the Braves haven’t officially announced their plan yet. 
• Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marlins: Chisholm (left oblique strain) began a rehab assignment with Single-A Jupiter on 7/30, and depending on how he looks, he could be activated on 7/31.
• Zach Eflin, Rays: The Rays got some good news on 7/30 when Eflin (left knee discomfort) said he was planning to start as scheduled on 8/1 at Yankee Stadium.
• Brandon Woodruff, Brewers: Woodruff (right shoulder strain) will make his next start with Triple-A Nashville, probably on 8/1, barring a setback. After that, Woodruff expects to have a conversation with the club about whether he needs more rehab starts or he is ready to rejoin the Major League rotation on 8/6. His staffmate Wade Miley (left elbow discomfort; 32% rostered in Yahoo, 9% in ESPN, 57% in Fantrax Dynasty) will return from the IL on 8/2 in our nation’s capital to take on the Nats. UPDATE: Woodruff made his third rehab start on 8/1 at Triple-A Nashville (4.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 K, 72 PIT, 43 STK). His next start should be with the Brewers on 8/7 (Week 20).
• The Clayton Kershaw saga continues… Kersh will face live hitters again in another sim game on 8/3. The Dodgers can afford to bring him along even slower now that they have the services of Lance Lynn. If Kershaw has another successful session, we may see him with the Dodgers in Week 20.

POV SPECIAL – SP STREAMS OF THE WEEK

→ Ranger Suárez⁵⁵, LH PHI (@MIA, KCR; 28% rostered in Yahoo, 26% in ESPN, 79% in Fantrax Dynasty) – Your league-mates may have moved on from Suárez due to a rough July, but they may not be aware of what’s going on “behind the scenes.” Despite giving up 11 runs in his last 17 innings, he had a quality start vs. San Diego and was unlucky vs. Baltimore. I like the improved control (6 K to 1 BB last start), and we had success streaming a lefty Phillie last week! Also, his 3.85 FIP (3.98 xFIP) and .325 BABIP prove his unluckiness and allow for positive regression. Park Factors in Miami and Philly favor the pitcher. Yet, he has a tough start versus Miami and then one against the atrocious Royals. There is some risk, but you should start him in most leagues.

UPDATE: Suárez’s next start pushes to next week with Lorenzen entering rotation.

Honorable Mention: J.P. France⁷³, RH HOU (CLE, @NYY; 44% Yahoo, 18% ESPN, 64% Fantrax), José Quintana¹³⁸, LH NYM? (@KCR, @BAL; 11% Yahoo, 4% ESPN, 52% Fantrax) – Will Quintana still be a Met? If so, I like him in 14-16 team leagues. He has been good since returning from the IL and now has a fantastic start to begin the week and a mediocre one to end it. The Royals have been one of the worst teams in baseball. That is enough to use Quintana in most formats. UPDATE: France will lose his second start due to the acquistion of Justin Verlander and the returning José Urquidy. He or Urquidy may be on the outside looking in as far as a rotational spot unless HOU goes with a six-man rotation.

One-Start Pitcher: Paul Blackburn¹⁰⁸, RH OAK (SFG; 4% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, 28% Fantrax) – Stream a pitcher from Oakland, you say? I, too, like to live dangerously. But there is good reason to stream Blackburn. In case you haven’t noticed. And going by recent attendance at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, you haven’t. Blackburn has strung together a nice pair of starts against the Astros and Rockies in Coors. Despite a 4.83 ERA from blowups against Boston, his 4.11 xERA, 3.58 FIP, 4.15 xFIP and 4.21 SIERA paint a clearer picture. And this Giants’ lineup is not equal to that of Boston’s. For July, San Fran has had a 24.7% K rate, which heightens the ceiling of Blackburn’s league-average 22.8%. What’s key is his respectable 7.3% BB rate. When he’s keeping free runners off, good things happen (40.8% GB rate, 34.9% FB rate).

For deeper leagues, I like resurgent lefty Steven Matz^NR, STL (COL; 15% Yahoo, 3% ESPN, 45% Fantrax). He has more opportunities in St. Louis now.

For more streaming options on the mound AND at the plate, visit Ray’s FAAB Values!