Jeff Mans DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown – Week 1

Welcome to the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown, where Jeff Mans breaks down everything you need to know to build safe, high-floor lineups.

SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE

PLAYERS ADDED TO THE PLAYER POOL:

Sammy Watkins, WR, Packers

Zach Ertz, TE, Cardinas

The more things change, the more they stay the same. 

I am very proud to welcome you to another season of DFS NFL here at FANTASY GURU. That’s right, we are now a one-stop shop of everything fantasy sports, daily fantasy and sports betting. We were working on this plan all last football season, and for those who are just coming back, welcome! 

You are going to notice some differences from what we did on Elite Fantasy the last couple of years. We’ve added a tremendous data section (Elite Data). We have tightened up our optimizer and allowed you to download our projections. We’ve added daily Core 4 Livestreams, a weekly matchup podcast and the Mind of Marsal Podcast (Elite+). We put on an all-day Training Camp with multiple DFS and betting sessions that are still available on demand (Training Camp). 

The one thing that will never change is the in-depth, hard-hitting, say-it-with-your-chest, won’t find it anywhere else analysis that you’ve come to know and love. This article will remain a Friday night staple after the NFL Core 4 Livestream as usual. But my Saturday night DFS chats are going to be moved up early on in the season and will also take place in the brand new “Mans Room” in our Discord. This is a way for us to talk directly with each other instead of just using a keyboard with emojis and GIFs. We will also be rolling out my FULL offensive line and coverage matchups in the form of SMASH Reports this year. You will finally be able to see all of the trenches and coverage matchups from week to week. 

In addition to some of the content and lineup changes this season, I’ve got some REAL good news. We have worked hard this offseason to create opportunities for each of you to have fun, compete hard, and win big prizes. Oh, and we were able to make it completely FREE! 

The first one is the first-ever Super Mans Bowl contest on SuperDraft. As you know, SuperDraft has been our Godsend for us cash game players for the last couple of years, as they have created hundreds of single-entry cash games with NO LINEUP TRAINS. Now, they are hosting the Super Mans Bowl, which is a full-season DFS competition in which we all accumulate points throughout the season. Your point total from each week will be added to your running total. The player with the most total points at the end of 17 weeks will win the grand prize.

Speaking of which, the grand prize is two tickets to Super Bowl 57 and a meet and greet with yours truly. There will be weekly cash prizes and plenty of runner-up prizes, too. But for the cost of NOTHING, you have the chance to win an experience of a lifetime and to meet a dumb-faced radio loudmouth. 

As I always like to do, here is a quick rundown of our DFS NFL schedule this season: 

Every Weekday (5:30pm ET) – The Core 4 Livestream hosted by Kyle Elfrink
Monday – Lineup Review with Patio Joe Baldino
Tuesday – QB Coach with Chris Rose
Wednesday – RB Coach with Ted Schuster
Also Wednesday – Contest Selection with Patio Joe Baldino
Thursday – WR Coach with Tyler Buecher
Friday – TE Coach with Scott Bondar
Also Friday – Cliff’s Notes with Ryan Clifford
More Friday – Cash Game Breakdown (what you are currently reading)
Even More Friday (7pm ET) – Core 4 NFL Livestream hosted by Jeff Mans
Crazy More Friday (9pm ET) – College Football Livestream hosted by Scott Bondar
Saturday – DST Coach with Bearded1InkedUp
Also Saturday – Lineup Coaching with Jeff Mans (Hey, that’s ME!) 
Sunday – NFL Sunday Livestream hosted by Armando Marsal at 11am ET 
Sunday Kickoff Chat – Lineup lock chat with Ted Schuster at 11:30am ET

Now, let’s get down to business. Right now, we are all friends. The excitement of a new NFL season is upon us, and we are glowing with the thoughts of million-dollar paydays and cash game glory. But those of you who have been around here know the truth. By the end of the first quarter of the Sunday games, there will be people attacking me in Discord. I’ll tolerate it for a bit but eventually erupt right back at them. Be warned, that I am not going to take much shit this year. If you don’t trust me and my DFS NFL analysis by now, what are you even doing here? 

You see, this offseason has painted a pretty clear picture to me and those of us who have been previewing this season for the last four months. Our competition has never been worse. It’s almost, er- it IS embarrassing. This was the latest arriving group I have seen in my 18 years of doing this professionally. The analysis, full of propaganda words like “range of outcomes” and “upside,” is the laziest I have ever seen. I have absolutely, positively zero doubts that our competition all year will be almost exclusively lineup optimizers fueled by the same vanilla projections.

If you’ve been with us for the fantasy football draft season, I know that you had to see it. Nobody wanted to actually make a decision on which Green Bay or Kansas City WR will step up to fill the massive vacancies on those teams. Good luck winning in daily fantasy football when your entire goal is to not be wrong. 

So, our objective is simple. Beat the optimizers. To do this, we will focus on single entry, 50/50 contests (as we always do) because they are the Kryptonite of lineup optimizers. We’ll build our bankroll on the backs of these contests, and then use those funds to fuel our tournament entries later on in the season. If we start out poorly, we will continue to wrench and get better. If we start out strong, we will continue to wrench and get better. Because that is what the fuck we do.

The one thing that I ask each of you reading this is to remember that we are a family. It is very much us, the Elite Mafia, against them, the lazy roll out of bed click optimize DFS players. Please do the best that you can to support each other within the confines of these walls. Let’s be helpful to one another in Discord. Let’s celebrate one another’s victories even when our own lineups fall short. We are the mother fucking Elite Mafia. It’s time to get our swagger back. There isn’t another community anywhere in sports, let alone in fantasy sports, that breaks the mold like we do. 

You will have losing weeks this season. You will have a losing streak this season. Furthermore, you will spend multiple Sunday evenings furious at yourself, at me, at our analysts and at each other. My tip for that is to go have consensual sex. If you live alone, rub one out. Do whatever it takes to calm down and remember the goal. We are going to win more than we lose. We are going to make money this season. But, year after year, I watch as our people get so bent out of shape that they start making massive changes to their strategies, their approach and their lineups. That segment of our subscriber base will wind up having a bad year. Those of you who can keep your head, manage your emotions, and not let one week make you forget everything you know will prosper. 

Here is the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown for Week 1

WEATHER

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears – Rain throughout the day with light rain falling during the game. Cloudy with low visibility, soggy, wet, slow playing surface. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders – 50% chance of rain showers during the game. Temperatures in the low-70’s and light winds out of the southeast at 6-8MPH. 

VEGAS

QUARTERBACKS

QB TABLE

WEEK 1 DFS NFL QB BREAKDOWN

Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($8000/$6800/1.2x) – The Eagles beat the Lions 44-6 at Ford Field in week eight last season. The odd thing about this game is that Jalen Hurts had his worst fantasy performance of the season, throwing the ball just 14 times for 103 yards and no touchdowns. He did rush seven times for 71 yards, but that amounted to just 11.22 fantasy points. Basically, the Eagles just ran it right down the Lions’ throats in that game, rushing 46 times for 236 yards and four touchdowns. But this is a much-improved Lions offense and defense here in 2022.

I project this game as being much closer this time around, which will drive up the pass and rush attempts of Jalen Hurts. The Eagles traded for AJ Brown this offseason, and as you can see in our WR coverage matchups, the Lions just don’t have a solution for the Eagles’ new wideout. Dual-threat quarterbacks are our jam in cash games, and Hurts is the best two-way threat this week. 

Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($8500/$7300/1.05x) – Jackson is back to full strength after missing six games last year with back and ankle injuries. He is playing for a massive contract extension this year, and whenever a star player has money on the line, we should use ours to invest in them. Jackson has posted 33.56, 27.5 and 22.0 fantasy points in each of his last three opening weeks. The Jets surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs a year ago. They got a pair of first-round players to install in defense, but a rookie CB who is prone to pass interference and a troubled edge rusher won’t be enough to slow down this Ravens offense. What’s more, the Jets did nothing to slow down tight ends to which they gave up the fifth-most fantasy points against last year. 

Baker Mayfield, Panthers ($6600/$5300/1.55x) – Before you shrug off the revenge game narrative, remember in the opening week of the 2021 season, Panthers QB Sam Darnold put up 21.16 fantasy points against his former team, the Jets. Mayfield is a much better passer than Darnold and gains LT Ickey Ekwonu and RG Austin Corbett to the Panthers offensive line. Mayfield is now in a much more pass-friendly offense with more weapons than he ever had in Cleveland. If you are looking for a super cheap QB that is still cash-worthy, Baker is your Dawg.

Don’t Forget About…

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($8400/$7600/1.1) – Like there is any chance that you will forget about Herbert this or any week. But he is expensive and isn’t as mobile as some of the other choices in this price range. Last we saw Justin Herbert and the Chargers, he was throwing for 383 yards and three touchdowns in taking the Raiders into overtime for the final playoff spot in the AFC. Herbert has averaged 25.0 fantasy points per game in four career games against the Raiders. Las Vegas added firepower this offseason in head coach Josh McDaniels and WR Davante Adams. This game has a real chance to be another pinball machine of fantasy production, and Herbert will be front and center. 

Favorite GPP Play…

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($8700/$7700/1x) – If you wanted a cheaper tournament option, I would look in the direction of Giants QB Daniel Jones against the Titans. If you were paying attention during the fantasy football draft season, you saw Mahomes drop beneath Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and even Lamar Jackson in ADP. Now, all three DFS sites have him priced at the very top of the QB pool, which will make for an easy fade for all of those who faded in seasonal.

But there is good reason for Mahomes being the highest-priced QB. He is the best QB in the NFL. The Chiefs/Cardinals game has the highest expected total, and Kansas City has the highest projected total of the main slate teams. What’s even better, nobody will know who to pair him with in tournaments. Patty Mahomes and Mecole Hardman or Marquez Valdes-Scantling feel like a duo who can lead us to the promised land in Arizona this week. 

SuperDraft Multiplier Play…

Trey Lance, 49ers – 1.4x 

RUNNING BACKS

RB TABLE

O-LINE/D-LINE MATCHUPS (Mans Model – Point System Scale of -100 – 100)
Main Slate Games Only

1. Indianapolis Colts → Houston Texans – 47.8
2. San Francisco 49ers → Chicago Bears – 41.2
3. New Orleans Saints → Atlanta Falcons – 33.3   
4. Philadelphia Eagles → Detroit Lions – 28.9
5. Cleveland Browns → Carolina Panthers – 25.4
6. Miami Dolphins → New England Patriots – 17.7 
7. Baltimore Ravens → New York Jets – 17.5

WEEK 1 DFS NFL RB BREAKDOWN

Jonathan Taylor, Colts ($10,200/$9100/1x) – Taylor destroyed the Texans (and the rest of the league) last season, racking up 143 & 145 yards in his two games against them. He also averaged 26.55 fantasy points in those two games. There is a ton of value options at every position this week, so paying all of the way up to $10K is more manageable this week than it will be regularly. 

Dameon Pierce, Texans ($5400/$4800/1.75x) – I cannot stress enough how much playing seasonal fantasy football can help you win at DFS NFL, especially in the early portions of the season. Pierce is a guy we were all over in the late rounds ever since he was drafted back in April. But he showed well in training camp to the point that Houston released RB Marlon Mack to clear the way for Pierce. Every optimizer in the universe will be spitting out Pierce’s name, so play him with your own caution. If you go chalk in other places, fading Pierce may be the right move for you. But if you want a solid, stable, cheap RB for the week, he is your guy. 

James Conner, Cardinals ($7700/$7000/1.35x) – The DFS pricing gods don’t seem to remember way back in 2021 when James Conner was the RB3 in football while Chase Edmonds was out. Well, no Edmonds – he plays for the Miami Dolphins – and Conner has the Cardinals backfield all to himself. Conner racked up 100-355-7 rushing and 32-30-310-3 receiving in the six games without Edmonds last year while playing 84% of the Cardinals snaps. That 26.1 fantasy points per game average was better than Jonathan Taylor or any other fantasy RB in that span. No, we are not expecting Conner to have quite that large of a workload, but at this mid-tier price in a game with the highest expected total, he is a smash play indeed. 

Saquon Barkley, Giants ($6800/$6100/1.3x) – I am a bit skeptical of Barkley in this new Brian Daboll offense, but I will certainly bite here. This pricing feels like an obvious misstep by DFS companies that are trying to drive up ownership. We have to recognize that Barkley is not the same player he was all the way back in 2018, but that is alright. The Giants are going to use a ton of spread formations with four and five wide receivers on the line of scrimmage. This will give Saquon some very light boxes to run through as well as give him quite a bit of room in the passing game. He doesn’t need to be that dynamic runner he was in his rookie season to leapfrog this salary easily. 

Don’t Forget About…

Joe Mixon, Bengals ($8300/$7100/1.15x) – There are many reasons why I loved Joe Mixon this entire draft season. The Bengals improved their offensive line this offseason, bringing in center Ted Karras, RG Alex Kappa and RT La’el Collins; all of whom were top 25 at their position in run blocking. The Steelers defense can cover and pass rush but had enormous trouble stopping the run last year in surrendering the most rushing yards and highest yards per carry to RBs. The Bengals have always played slow and ran the football when they have a lead under Zac Taylor, and they now have all of the weapons to do this effectively. 

Favorite GPP Play…

Kenyan Drake, Ravens ($5700/$5000/1.65x) – JK Dobbins is likely out for this week, and Gus Edwards begins the season on the PUP list. That leaves journeyman Mike Davis and recently signed Kenyan Drake to carry the load for the Ravens in this perfect game script this week. Drake is a rent-a-back, which is why I would expect a rather large share of the workload this week. Drake has always been an electric runner with the ball in his hands, and with the threat of Lamar Jackson freezing those LBs and safeties, we could see multiple big plays out of him here. His price is low but not low enough that he is an auto-play for the DFS optimizers. You need an actual human brain in order to pull this kind of play. 

SuperDraft Multiplier Play…

A.J. Dillon, Packers – 1.5x

WIDE RECEIVERS

WR TABLE

WR COVERAGE MATCHUPS

Main Slate Games Only

WR/CB MATCHUPS (BASED ON PFF RATINGS – % Rating Difference)

1. Tee Higgins, Bengals → Arthur Maulet, Steelers – 100.0
2. Mike Williams, Chargers → Anthony Averett, Raiders – 100.0
3. AJ Brown, Eagles → Jeff Okudah, Lions – 100.0
4. Deebo Samuel, 49ers → Kyler Gordon, Bears – 100.0 
5. Amari Cooper, Browns → Jaycee Horn, Panthers – 99.6 
6. Kenny Golladay, Giants → Roger McCreary, Titans – 99.5
7. Tyreek Hill, Dolphins → Jalen Mills, Patriots – 99.0 
8. Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers → Jaylen Johnson, Bears – 96.4
9. Justin Jefferson, Vikings → Rasul Douglas, Packers – 96.3
10. Christian Kirk, Jaguars → Benjamin St. Juste, Commanders – 95.5

WORST COVERAGE CORNERBACKS – WR MATCHUP (Mans Model)

1. Jeff Okudah, Lions → AJ Brown, Eagles – 75% Man-Press Coverage
2. Derek Stingley, Texans → Michael Pittman, Colts – 85% Cover-2 Zone
3. Jack Jones, Patriots → Tyreek Hill, Dolphins – 55% Match Zone
4. Kindle Vildor, Bears → Deebo Samuel, 49ers – 70% Cover-2 Zone
5. Tyson Campbell, Jaguars → Terry McLaurin, Commanders – 70% Cover-2 Zone
6. Benjamin St. Juste, Commanders → Christian Kirk, Jaguars – 60% Cover-1 Man
7. Darren Hall, Falcons → Jarvis Landry, Saints – 50% Man Coverage
8. Eric Stokes, Packers → Adam Thielen, Vikings – 75% Cover-2 Zone
9. Marco Wilson, Cardinals → Mecole Hardman, Chiefs – 70% Man Press Coverage
10. Charvarius Ward, 49ers → Darnell Mooney, Bears – 65% Cover-3 Zone
11. Anthony Averett, Raiders → Mike Williams, Chargers – 60% Cover-4 Quarters
12. Mike Hilton, Bengals → Chase Claypool, Steelers – 65% Man Press Coverage
13. Aaron Robinson, Giants → Robert Woods, Titans – 50% Man Coverage
14. Caleb Farley, Titans → Kenny Golladay, Giants – 65% Cover-1 Man
15. Cameron Sutton, Steelers → Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals – 65% Cover-2 Zone

WEEK 1 DFS NFL WR BREAKDOWN

Christian Kirk, Jaguars ($5800/$5100/1.35x) – It’s a bit surprising that a player who commanded a four-year, $72 million contract in the offseason is priced as if he is a WR3. Make zero mistake about it, Christian Kirk is the Jaguars’ number one wide receiver and a player that Trevor Lawrence will lean heavily on this season. This will begin immediately in week one, as Kirk draws the inside coverage of Benjamin St-Juste, who finished 2021 as the #190 ranked CB (out of 208 qualified players) according to PFF last year. Kirk is a receiver who will regularly be a value at the $6500 salary level (on FD), so we are getting a pretty sizable discount here. 

Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($7700/$6800/1.1x) – DFS players are forgetting about Tyreek Hill, and I am here for it. Sure, he doesn’t have Patty Mahomes throwing him the rock any longer, but new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel sold his soul and built his entire offense around Tyreek Hill. We are going to see him getting the ball early and often, usually on quick, timing routes where he has blockers in front of him and room to roam.

Hill is in the Hall of Fame for week one fantasy producers. Since his rookie season (2016) and not counting 2019’s opener where he got hurt on the first drive against the Jaguars, Tyreek has been a sensation. His average stat line in week one is 9-7-136-1.25 or 28.62 fantasy points. He has gone for 133+ yards and/or a TD in every one of those games. The Patriots have redone their entire secondary, and there are massive questions. Tyreek Hill has torched Bill Belichick defenses even when Stephon Gillmore & JC Jackson were in coverage, so the likes of Jalen Stinking Mills and Jack Who The Fuck Am I Jones don’t shake us a hell of difference. 

Michael Pittman, Colts ($7200/$5500/1.35x) – Lovie Smith’s defense did a good job against Pittman last year, limiting him to an 11-8-112-0 stat line combined in two games. But what I am after here is the likelihood of veteran QB Matt Ryan attacking the coverage of rookie CB Derek Stingley. Sure, Stingley is a highly-rated rookie CB, but this is a position that takes years to develop. What’s most interesting to me is that Ryan has a 46.8% (256-548) target rate to outside rookie CBs over the last five years. Though this number seems extremely high, the league average over the last three years is actually 39.8%. So when you take a veteran QB, mix in his number 1 WR, and fold in a rookie CB making his first career start, you have a recipe for fantasy success. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs ($6400/$5200/1.5x) – There are a lot of questions surrounding the Kansas City receiving corps, and that is because this world is made up of a lot of pussies. JuJu Smith-Schuster is definitely the clear WR1 in KC right now, though I believe Mecole Hardman is long for that role myself. But at these lower mid-tier salaries and playing in the highest expected total game, JuJu is a free square in DFS this week. 

Marquise Brown, Cardinals ($6900/$6200/1.35x) – Welcome to the most popular DFS NFL WR of the week, courtesy of the lineup optimizers and vanilla projectionists around the industry. I like Brown, and he definitely is a good play in this spot this week. I was a bit cooler on him before the news of Zach Ertz’s injury (he will play) and Rondale Moore being ruled out for week one. But he will be Kyler Murray’s primary weapon in the passing game this week and obviously has massive upside, as well.

The Chiefs redid their secondary in the offseason, and while their overall coverage capabilities appear better, I think that their safeties (Justin Reid, Bryan Cook) are more susceptible to the big play, which happens to be Brown’s specialty. Hollywood has had some real clunkers against the Chiefs in the past but did get them for a 10-6-113-1, including a 42-yard TD reception, last year in week two. When you’re looking at a player with 40%+ projected ownership who can explode for 25+ points, it is a real tough fade in cash games. 

A.J. Brown, Eagles ($7100/$6400/1.25x) – I am a little worried about this game flow, as the Eagles command quite an advantage in most positional groups here. But the Eagles are sure to want to show off their brand new $100 million wide receiver in the season opener, and the matchup couldn’t be much better. Brown will line up against former third overall pick Jeff Okudah, who has struggled in coverage and staying healthy in his three seasons in Detroit. The Lions play a ton of man coverage, so this matchup will hold throughout the game. Brown may go overlooked a bit this week as his price is high enough not to be a value play but not quite up to the standards of Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman or Terry McLaurin. 

Don’t Forget About…

Sammy Watkins, Packers ($5500/$4700/1.55x) – I was pretty certain that a $6500/$5600/1.4x Mike Honcho (Allen Lazard for you basics) would make the DFS NFL Cash Game Breakdown this week. But alas, he injured his foot in practice three weeks ago and is doubtful to play in week one. Well, shit. If you paid attention to the preseason, you will undoubtedly believe that rookie WR Romeo Doubs would be the one to fill in for the injured Lazard. But Aaron Rodgers and the Packers organization are incredibly slow to give opportunities to rookie wide receivers, favoring veterans at most every turn.

Enter eight-year veteran Sammy Watkins, who has come to Green Bay to try and rectify his career. Watkins was the fourth overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, the same draft that the Packers took Davante Adams at 53 overall. What could have been? Watkins will get his shot here to play the Davante Adams role for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense against a very young and unproven Vikings secondary. He has become a sort of cult hero for his recent week one performances. Watkins has logged a total of 28-20-376-4 in his last three season openers, which comes to an average of 27.2 fantasy points per game. Don’t be surprised when week one Sammy emerges again this year. 

Favorite GPP Play…

Mecole Hardman, Chiefs ($5400/$4600/1.55x) – I wish that I could make a viable case for Hardman in cash games this week. Well, I could, but it wouldn’t quite meet the standards that we like to meet for our wide receivers. Hardman was drafted to replace Tyreek Hill three years ago when Hill was facing serious legal issues. Now, Tyreek is gone, and although JuJu Smith-Schuster profiles as the possession receiver in Kansas City, Hardman is poised for a breakout campaign. He is extremely underpriced here against Marco Wilson, the Cardinals’ weakest cornerback. I’ve guaranteed a touchdown reception from Hardman this week, and if he does that, he’ll be a massive value play in DFS. 

SuperDraft Multiplier Play…

Kadarius Toney, Giants – 1.7x

TIGHT ENDS

TE TABLE

WEEK 1 DFS NFL TE BREAKDOWN

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($8000/$6600/1x) – Please tell me that we are not going to have the ridiculous arguments that plagued us last year when some of you demanded we stop paying up for TE. Kelce’s production will eventually trail off as he is now in his age 33 season, but until we see it, there is little reason to not pay his price tag in DFS. If you want to make the argument that we save a little and still get a premium TE, I will listen. If you want to constantly dig through the bargain bin, count me out. 

Mark Andrews, Ravens ($7900/$6800/1x) – Andrews took the TE crown from Kelce last season, and thus he is just $100 less on FD and actually $200 more on DK in opening week. There is a good argument for both Kelce and Andrews, both revolving around the same premise. Who else is going to catch the ball in Kansas City and/or Baltimore? The Ravens already target the TE more than any other team (36.5%), which means Andrews will be an every-week staple in this space. 

Kyle Pitts, Falcons ($6000/$5700/$1.25x) – So this is where it gets interesting. Pitts is also the only viable receiving option on his team and represents a significant discount in salary. He only scored one TD last year, but we are sure to see a big progression in that department here. New Falcons QB Marcus Mariota has a career target rate to the TE position of 28.27%, fourth best in the NFL (min 1000 pass attempts) behind just Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz. A breakout season is happening for Pitts, so this might be the time to get on board while there is a savings. 

Don’t Forget About…

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($5700/$4500/$1.45x) – Goedert was one of the better TE values during the draft season and is now underpriced entering week one. The Lions surrendered the fifth-most receptions, third-most receiving yards, second-highest completion % and 10^th-most fantasy points to TEs last year. While AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith keep the Lions safeties and corners busy, Goedert will do work underneath and should have no problem paying off this price tag this week. 

Favorite GPP Play…

Darren Waller, Raiders ($7000/$5400/1.2x) – Waller isn’t going to be the fantasy player he was two years ago with the addition of Davante Adams and emergence of Hunter Renfrow. But his red-zone ability is where Josh McDaniels’ offense will primarily deploy him, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him lead Las Vegas in touchdowns this season. The Chargers red-zone defense bleeds in covering TEs as evidenced by them giving up 13 TDs to the tight end position last year. Waller is too expensive when compared to Kelce, Andrews and Pitts, and he isn’t cheap enough to help the rest of our lineup out with salary. That makes him a perfect candidate for our tournament lineups this week. 

SuperDraft Multiplier Play…

Evan Engram, Jaguars – 1.65x

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

San Francisco 49ers ($5000/$4100) – The most expensive DST on the board this week but also one with immense upside. The Bears offensive line is easily the worst in football, and the 49ers were third in pressures and fifth in the NFL in sacks last season. While the Niners lost DT DJ Jones in the offseason, they are still rolling out immense pass rush specialists like Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Fred Warner. The discrepancy of talent here is so vast, when the 49ers DST is on the field, it will feel like they are the ones on offense. 

Los Angeles Chargers ($4000/$3300) – The Raiders will be able to score, but they are going to have a much harder time than most people think against this super defense the Chargers built this offseason. With Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa on the edges and Sebastian Joseph-Day clogging the interior, the Raiders offensive line doesn’t have a chance. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see the Chargers rack up 5+ sacks while holding Las Vegas to 20 or fewer points. At this price, they are one of the better DST options for us this week. 

Indianapolis Colts ($4500/$3900) – This isn’t as big of an advantage as one would think, as the Colts defense isn’t full of playmakers, nor do they generate a ton of sacks. But they do force turnovers and don’t break in the red zone. If you’re just looking for a nice, safe DST but cannot spend all the way up for the 49ers this week, Indy is your choice. 

Miami Dolphins ($3800/$2600) – This is a pretty wild misprice for a top-notch defensive unit. The Dolphins finished third in DST fantasy points last season. They were fifth in sacks, 14^th in interceptions, fourth in fumble recoveries and second in defensive touchdowns last year. They kept their entire defensive staff in place despite hiring Mike McDaniel as their new head coach. The Patriots offense hasn’t done much to improve this offseason and will once again rely on the run game to move the ball. Mac Jones and the Pats passing offense doesn’t have much of a chance, so this creates a nice floor for the Miami DST this week. 

WEEK 1 CORE 4’S