QB Production After Career Years

That’s usually why I avoid QBs coming off career years. It’s generally counter-intuitive to believe a player coming off a career year will be undesirable, like Gary Barnidge this year. But career years are called such for a reason: They’re almost never duplicated. These are cases of something unusual happening, which usually means the opposite will occur in the near future.

-- 2016's Lessons Learned

Perhaps not coincidentally, I started thinking about QB "career years" two weeks ago. A lot of the data for this article was put together last week; John's comment in the Lessons Learned article spurred me to write up some of the results.

Because I think there are two questions to be asked. First, what happens to a QB's fantasy numbers the year after a career year? Second, how do we know what just happened WAS a career year?

The second question is much harder to answer and I'm going to put that off for a week. But before le...

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Mike Horn
Statistical Analyst

Mike, our resident stat head, has been playing fantasy football for over 15 years and high-stakes leagues for over a decade.  He joined the Fantasy Guru staff in 2005.