We'd all like to know how our fantasy players are going to do the rest of the year. In this article I'll look specifically at running backs using two measures: fantasy points per game (FP/G) from Weeks 7 to 17 and the change in FP/G between Weeks 1 to 6 and Weeks 7-17.

If you've read my articles for any length of time, you may think they can be too complicated with stats and math and stuff. And you may be right. I hope this piece is a little simpler. But there will be some math.

I went back to 2002 for the data (since the NFL has had 32 teams). I'm used PPR scoring per game: 1 fantasy point (FP) for every 10 yards; 6 FP per TD, and 1 FP per reception. I threw out RBs who played fewer than 3 games in the first 6 weeks of the season and those who played fewer than 5 games in the last 11. And then I limited myself to looking at just RBs who ranked in the Top 50 in FP/G in Weeks 1-6.

First, I calculated the correlation between several stats from the first six weeks with FP/G from Weeks 7 to 17:

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Relationships Between RB Stats in Weeks 1-6 and Their FP/G in Weeks 7-17

Weeks 1-6 Stats

Correlation

R-squared

Yards Per Carry

0.07

0.005

Rushes Per Game

0.53

0.28

Touches Per Game

0.60

0.36

Opportunities Per Game

0.61

0.37