It's the Workload, Stupid!

We'd all like to know how our fantasy players are going to do the rest of the year. In this article I'll look specifically at running backs using two measures: fantasy points per game (FP/G) from Weeks 7 to 17 and the change in FP/G between Weeks 1 to 6 and Weeks 7-17.

If you've read my articles for any length of time, you may think they can be too complicated with stats and math and stuff. And you may be right. I hope this piece is a little simpler. But there will be some math.

I went back to 2002 for the data (since the NFL has had 32 teams). I'm used PPR scoring per game: 1 fantasy point (FP) for every 10 yards; 6 FP per TD, and 1 FP per reception. I threw out RBs who played fewer than 3 games in the first 6 weeks of the season and those who played fewer than 5 games in the last 11. And then I limited myself to looking at just RBs who ranked in the Top 50 in FP/G in Weeks 1-6.

First, I calculated the correlation between several stats from the first six weeks with FP/G from Weeks 7 to 17:

By "correlation" I technically mean correlation coefficient, which can be a number between 0 and 1, and be positive or negative. If the coefficient...

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Mike Horn
Statistical Analyst

Mike, our resident stat head, has been playing fantasy football for over 15 years and high-stakes leagues for over a decade.  He joined the Fantasy Guru staff in 2005.