If you’re interested in this article, first please read my take on the offensive identities (Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3) of all the teams in 2016. That will explain some of the stats in this article, which I will not explain here. As I did last year, I will write a detailed piece on each team.
Dirk Koetter won 9 games in his first year as Tampa' HC and missed the playoffs on a tiebreaker. Not only was this a three-win improvement, it was the Bucs' first winning season since 2010. Since the team got out-scored, they may have over-achieved a bit, but it was a good start for the long-time OC.
Koetter started as an NFL OC in 2007 as Jack del Rio's OC in Jacksonville. After five years there, Koetter moved to Atlanta for three. In 2015, he moved to TB to be Lovie Smith's OC. The front office was happy with the offense but not the overall performance, so it fired Smith and promoted Koetter.
While the 9 wins were good, the offense ranked just 18th in yards and points, so the team did make some off-season moves to upgrade it. DeSean Jackson was added as a deep threat at wideout. O.J. Howard was drafted in the first round to be the starting TE of the future, if not 2017. And a third round pick was spent on WR Chris Godwin and a 5th for RB Jeremy McNichols.
DK = Dirk Koetter's offense
NFL = Average NFL offense
Koetter's first year in JAC and first season in ATL were the two best NFL teams he was on. Mostly, he OC'd mediocre to poor teams. Last year's Bucs probably qualify for the upper fringe of mediocrity. Vegas puts them there again, with an O/U of 8.5 wins. I'd expect the two years in TB to be a solid indicator of what we'll see from Koetter. If the team does breakthrough, or take a step back, there are examples of those kinds of teams in his past, so we can look at them to see the relevant possibilities for the offense.
The Offense Overall