In years past, I’d produce this initial look and I’d get into great detail as to why I think a player’s ADP should be higher or lower. But this year, since people prefer articles that are more concise, and since we’ve already explained our positions on all players in our Player Profiles, and since we’re dealing with ADP trends in our Values/Overvalued articles and with Graham Barfield’s excellent ADP Anxiety articles, I’m cutting this ADP analysis down and focusing on the players who truly stand out ADP-wise.
Here’s my latest look at what I see out there in ADP Land.
For the latest ADP data from 8/16, check the Tools & Downloads page for the excel download.
While the QBs in 2017 do present good value as usual, we’re seeing them get a little more love this year, perhaps due to the fact that the WRs had a so-so year in 2016. Studs like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady are going a little higher than last year (especially Brees; Brady’s ADP is hard to analyze because he had the 4-game suspension last year). That could cause a few choice players to go down as so-so picks in 2017.
Going too early:
- Aaron Rodgers (GB) – When it comes to fantasy drafting, it’s not just about the player; it’s also about his cost. And the closer a QB gets to the top of a fantasy draft the better his chances of going down as a lame fantasy pick are. Drafting Rogers is never a horrible idea, but with myriad high-end options available later, it’s just not a good plan. His ADP is UP to 18 from 20 in late-July, so he’s only getting more expensive. Updated: 8/16
- Andrew Luck (Ind) – Luck as the QB6 (down from 5 in July) is going to be good if he’s healthy, since he’s been a QB1 (top-12) in 75% of his starts since 2014, but even though he’s down a full round from 2-3 weeks ago, I’m passing on him in the 5th round of a 12-team because of major concerns about his shoulder rehab (on PUP still).
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