2016 SOS Adjusted QB Scores

Every year, after the season ends, I look back at player performance (in fantasy points (FP)) adjusted by factoring in their strength of schedule (SoS). I want to strip out the effects of difficult or easy schedules in order to better predict player performance next season. I look at all the offensive fantasy positions, starting with QBs.

This method doesn't always work in spotting changes for next season, because so many factors go into a player's performance. For example, if you go back and read last year’s article, you 'll find a mixed bag of calls. Here's my summary from that article:

A few summary comments, just based on this analysis:

  • I like Aaron Rodgers to bounce back next year with a more normal SoS.
  • Russell Wilson and Cam Newton are legitimate Top 5 QBs.
  • Blake Bortles is a Top 10 guy but not a Top 5 QB (compare SOSA FP to SOSA W-L ranks).
  • Derek Carr is a decent low-end starting option but you may need to look for other options when he plays top defenses like Denver or KC...
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Mike Horn
Statistical Analyst

Mike, our resident stat head, has been playing fantasy football for over 15 years and high-stakes leagues for over a decade.  He joined the Fantasy Guru staff in 2005.