Every year, after the season ends, I look back at player performance (in fantasy points (FP)) adjusted by factoring in their strength of schedule (SoS). I want to strip out the effects of difficult or easy schedules in order to better predict player performance next season. I look at all the offensive fantasy positions, starting with QBs.
This method doesn't always work in spotting changes for next season, because so many factors go into a player's performance. For example, if you go back and read last year’s article, you 'll find a mixed bag of calls. Here's my summary from that article:
A few summary comments, just based on this analysis:
- I like Aaron Rodgers to bounce back next year with a more normal SoS.
- Russell Wilson and Cam Newton are legitimate Top 5 QBs.
- Blake Bortles is a Top 10 guy but not a Top 5 QB (compare SOSA FP to SOSA W-L ranks).
- Derek Carr is a decent low-end starting option but you may need to look for other options when he plays top defenses like Denver or KC...
Subscribe NowDon't miss out on the best Fantasy Football information and tools in the business.
#1 in accuracy on Fantasy Pros in 2015-2016 with 1st, 2nd, and 3rd overall finishes in 3 of the last 4 years (out of 140+ experts)
Advanced database and unique statistical tools that are tops in the industry
Credibility and top content with a 23-year track record
FREE roster and scoring system import from your league's site
Mobile-friendly site you can use on your phone
A personal portal to your teams with MyGuru, custom news, projections, etc