Last week was actually not bad and the article did pretty well except for Rahm not being able to putt and Scheffler falling apart on Sunday. Other than that, we had the 1st and 2nd place guys in the article, and we had Cameron Smith’s outright so that helps. The Sunday Showdown article also did well, and I made some money this week which seems like I haven’t all year. Now we move back to the states to Minnesota to play the 3M open at TPC Twin Cities. Let’s get into the course breakdown.
Course Preview
This week we are in Minnesota for the 3M open which has been played here in 2021, 2020 and 2019. Looking at the past winners you will see two bombers won it in Cameron Champ and Matthew Wolff. Alongside that the year Wolff won was with Bryson finishing second. Now even knowing those things a lot of the guys up on the leaderboards are not bombers, and the 2020 champion Michael Thompson is far from a bomber. You will need to be fairly accurate off the tee and be good on approach shots to succeed here. Plenty of birdies will be available at this course as long as your T2G game is on point. This course plays as a 7,431 par 71 with four par 3’s, eleven par 4’s and three par 5’s. The par two of the par 5’s yield 40+% birdie rate and the other one is sitting at 36%. Six of the par 4’s yield a 20+% birdies rate making this course gettable in many aspects. The green here are pretty big measuring at 6,500 square feet yielding over a 70% GIR rate, which is massive. These greens are fairly easy to read so it may come down to who can be better setup from the fairway and a putting contest.
Stats I am Looking at
- SG: OTT
- SG: APP
- BoB Gained/Opps Gained
- Par 5 scoring
- SG: P
- Driving distance (Slightly)
Player Breakdown
Hideki Matsuyama (Cash/GPP)
A lot of people are going to be pushing this spot to Finau because he sets up very well this week but I am going to be a lot heavier on Hideki this week. I just love how he sets up for this course. He comes in 2nd in BoB gained and also 1st in Opps gained so he will be scoring this week. Also, a course that fits both Bryson/Wolff also fits Matsuyama and both of those guys are good on this course.
Sahith Theegala (Cash/GPP)
Played decent last week but kind of fell off. Comes in 7th in my model this week with him being 17th in BoB gained and 21st in opps gained. He is also 5th in Par 5 scoring so I am willing to go back to him this week hoping he will be able to score in bunches.
Adam Hadwin (Cash/GPP)
Hello darkness my old friend, I have gotten him right a couple times, but I have also got him wrong a lot and at this price you have to be spot on with the research. My research tells me he should do very well this week. Hadwin comes in 11th in my overall model with 10th in Opps gained and 11th in BoB gained. Along with that he has finished 6th and 4th at this course over the past three years. Has also played well all the comp courses.
Maverick McNealy (GPP)
He has massive upside this week but also can miss the cut and that is just how he plays. Comes in 4th in my model with him being 8th in opps gained and 4th in BoB gained. I like him to be able to score but we also need a good finish from him at this price tag.
Davis Riley (Cash/GPP)
Has been on a role lately and comes in 8th in my model with him being 2nd in BoB and I believe he will do well even though he might be chalky this week.
Cameron Davis (GPP)
The only reason he is listed as GPP only is just that I am scared about where he will finish this week. Can he finish top 10? Yes of course, but can he also finish 30th and not pay off this price tag? Also, yes and that is what scares me because we know he can make a lot of birdies and his best putting surface is bent but by no means safe.
J.T Poston (Cash/GPP)
The Postman is back this week and he just won at the John Deere which is a comp to this course. While that doesn’t mean he will win here, it does mean he can do well at this course. He finished 28th last year and I think he has room for much more given his recent form and his stats lining up.
Martin Laird (Cash/GPP)
If Steele really is going to be chalky this week, then Laird is the direct pivot off of him for me. He won’t go out and just drop birdie after birdie, but he ranks 20th in opps gained and 33rd in par 5 scoring. If he can drop some of those birdies, he can easily finish top 25 this week and out score Steele.
Nick Hardy (Cash/GPP)
This seems like a week where he could make the cut and finish top 30. He won’t win for you, but he can help you win some money. He finished 30th
Chris Gotterup (GPP)
Comes in at 5th in my model for this week with being 6th in opps gained and 18th in BoB gained. He should be able to put himself in some good opportunities to score this weekend.
Brendon Todd (Cash/GPP)
If it comes down to a putting contest you will want Tood this week, His form is not the greatest but if he can find the approach game, he will do good on the back of that putter.
Adam Svensson (Cash/GPP)
I am very high on him this week and he will show you all why. His irons are good and while his putter isn’t great his best surface is Bent. He has finished top 20 here in 2019 and has played a couple of the comp course very well. Also, he is 19th in opps gained along with 6th in BoB gained in this field.
Emiliano Grillo (GPP)
He could easily miss the cut this week I fully understand that, but he does have upside whenever he plays especially in a lower tier field. Finished 3rd here in 2020 and a missed cut last year but this will be a gpp play only.
Wyndham Clark (Cash/GPP)
His stats pop big time this week coming in 9th in my overall model and is really good in par 5 scoring, his biggest issue this week is going to be that putter. Golfers have said these greens are easier to read so if he finds a way to gain strokes putting this week he will do great.
Lucas Glover (GPP)
Has a top 10 here and also has a few great weeks at the comp courses. We will know on Thursday which Glover we get to see but let’s hope his wife wants him to win at this course so we can get him through the cut and another top 10 for us.
Austin Smotherman (Cash/GPP)
Comes in 3rd in my overall model this week with being 4th in opps gained along with 13th in BoB gained. Smotherman also has some good distance to fit this course, but his biggest issue is that putter and is what’s keeping him from doing great some weeks.
Chesson Hadley (GPP)
Has a 10th and a 5th in two of his last three events. Maybe coming back into a little bit of form and while the comp courses have been nice to him. He really hasn’t had the greatest success here.
Matthias Schwab (Cash/GPP)
Stats won’t show up as the greatest but does have a 32nd here and has a 16th at the john Deere along with a 7th place finish at The Honda classic.
Tom Hoge (GPP)
Talk about some of the worst form you can have coming into this tournament. We have to give him a break on some of those because some were some tough courses that he didn’t suit that well. Hoge comes in 12th in my model with him coming in 2nd in opps gained and 8th in BoB gained.
Patton Kizzire (Cash/GPP)
Has not missed the cut at this course the last three years and his form at the comp courses also brings me to like him as well and think he is safe along with some upside.
Sam Ryder (GPP)
Will always have upside like you can see from his last two years at the Honda where he has two top 10s. Also, at this course he has made the cut two of the last three times and were not awful finishes.
Ryan Moore (Cash/GPP)
Give me all the Ryan Moore this week. You can call me crazy all you want but he is really good at easy courses and has done very well at the comp courses. He has a top 12 here along two missed cuts but course history here is not a huge deal.
Satoshi Kodaira (GPP)
Stats line up for him but is not great at this course or the comp courses. He will give himself opportunities coming in 10th for opps gained but we will need him to play well all week. When he makes the cut at tournaments, he usually does well.
Vaughn Taylor (GPP)
Super inconsistent but he is a good easy course person and can make birdies in bunches. The issues usually is he will do well two days but then kind of fall apart. Comes in 6th in opps gained.
GPP Core
- Maverick Mcnealy
- Ryan Moore
Slate Edge
- Ryan Moore
