A review of NFBC ADP for 2022 and Steamer projections (10/1/21-1/9/22)
Now that we created a larger picture of players from last season in ‘2021 ADP vs. Fantasy Baseball Production,’ let’s see how this picture matches up with the ADP leading into the 2022 season. In Part II of my series, we will compare NFBC ADP for 2022 to their Steamer projections in most of the above-linked statistics. But first, let’s address a potential elephant in the room.
How Do Positions Factor into Selection (i.e. Position Scarcity)?
You have to ask yourself, “Do I want the top-ranked player in the scarce positions, or do I want to collect players who will perform the best overall?” The answer is clear. Because, in the end, categorical standings/points accumulate together anyway, right? We don’t get measured per position (at least in most leagues). To draw a comparison to fantasy football, in winning weeks, there are a few players who hit ceiling games while others score in the single digits. Let’s look at Trea Turner. Currently, he has a 1.72 NFBC ADP yet is 54th overall on our list of projected Fantasy Production (FP). Can Turner exceed expectations and projections? Fuck yeah. But can you also draft Xander Bogaerts on the backend of round two or the beginning of round three? Again, the answer is, fuck yeah. Let’s get to it!
Hitters: ISO + wOBA + BB/K = FP
BEST OF THE TOP 100
Oh, look at that… Mr. Soto tops this list, too.
NFBC ADP appears to be more accurate to potential FP than Consensus ADP. Not surprising as this is where the sharps play. However, there are still clear values to be had, and none better than Alex Bregman (95.2 NFBC ADP; 1.655 Projected FP). Other values include Anthony Rendon (110.17; 1.312), Max Muncy (139.47; 1.299), Jesse Winker (108.92; 1.261), Rhys Hoskins (144.91; 1.176) and Yoán Moncada (145.89; 0.977).
Much like the late, great Rodney Dangerfield, Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson get no respect.
Marcus Semien is coming off a season for the ages (.265 BA, 45 HR, 173 H, 115 R, 15 SB). Steamer’s 2022 projected stats equates to a 1.094 FP. Jake Cronenworth was no slouch himself (.266 BA, 21 HR, 151 H, 94 R, 4 SB). His projected FP for 2022? 1.094! This is possibly just a weird coinkydink of numbers. Most noteworthy here is their NFBC ADP: Semien – 29.8, Jake from Rake Farm – 119.82. It’s ok; you can pull your jaw off the ground.
As seen below, Starling Marte (28.17 NFBC ADP; 0.825 Projected FP) has a lot of preseason hype with his trade to New York, but 2021 breakout star Cedric Mullins (28.52; 0.957) is the better value based on Steamer projections.
Both Fernando Tatis Jr. (1.93 NFBC ADP) and Shohei Ohtani (8.17) are projected to produce a 1.136 FP. Do you know who else has the same projection? Aaron Judge (41.17) does, but will he top 145 games played in 2022? He did last year, but before that, you’d have to go back to 2017, his first full season in the bigs.
Bo Bichette (5.08 NFBC ADP; 0.911 Projected FP), Trevor Story (40.97; 0.883) and Austin Riley (53.95; 0.903) are within the same range for projected FP. Who are you taking? Why not take a shot on a kid (Wander Franco – 54.17; 1.153)?
Josh Bell (139.62 NFBC ADP; 1.182 Projected FP) has the Nationals’ first base job all to himself, for now. He also lies in between Carlos Correa (95.17; 1.195) and Jose Altuve (74.12; 1.180) in terms of projected FP. I’m interested in him again no matter what uniform he wears, assuming he sees regular ABs. As the linked article writes, “Bell seemingly rediscovered his better process at the dish. He cut his strikeouts back to their typical range, punching out in only 17.8% of his plate appearances (about five points lower than average and a significant reduction from his 26.5% K rate in 2020). His rate of contact on swings rebounded to 77.4% after cratering to 69% during his down year in 2020. Those better bat-to-ball skills came without sacrificing contact authority. Bell’s average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard contact rate (52%) in 2021 were each career bests.”
If you want J.T. Realmuto (0.872 FP), it will cost you roughly a fourth-round pick at this current juncture. However, Willson Contreras (0.892 FP) would only cost you a ninth-round pick. You will get more plate appearances from Realmuto (as we’ll examine in ‘Drafting a Catcher’ later in Fantasy Guru’s MLB Draft Guide), and Steamer currently has it at 556 PA for J.T. vs. 471 for Willson, which more than likely does not factor in the possibility of a DH in the National League. I don’t feel 85 PA equates to the five-round difference. Additionally, if you want to wait a little longer for catcher, Keibert Ruiz (1.141 FP) will be there for the taking at ~157 in NFBC drafts. While I feel the projected FP is unlikely, the kid is a stud.
Christian Yelich (102.79 NFBC ADP; 1.134 Projected FP) is a prime buy-low bounce-back candidate.
Franmil Reyes and Myles Straw may be teammates along with having the same projected FP (0.929), but the duo gets there in far different ways. Straw’s appreciable 0.54 BB/K is to credit here and pairs well with his projected 22 stolen bags.
WORST OF THE TOP 100
Unless the stolen base is weighted heavily in your league (high point value; individual category), Adalberto Mondesi sucks.
Steamer is down on Jazz Chisholm Jr… Not sure why.
Adolis García should outperform his 0.640 projected FP. I mean, the BB/K is putrid (194 strikeouts in 2021; projected for 201), but he is a pure power hitter at every level, and I see his ISO closer to the .212 mark he posted a season ago. In 529 PA for Triple-A Memphis Redbirds (2019), his ISO was .265. In 2018, the Redbirds saw him smash to the tune of .244 (428 PA).
Javier Báez appearing on both worst lists (2021 & here foreseeing 2022) speaks volumes. Tim Anderson, not so much (see last article).
Pitchers: ERA + WHIP + FIP = FP
*Note: We used my ABA calculations & SIERA last time out, but Steamer doesn’t project those stats, so changed to WHIP & FIP for this analysis.
BEST OF THE TOP 60
Corbin Burnes (10.47 NFBC ADP; 6.87 projected FP) could be the first SP off the board in your league not named Ohtani (more on him next). Yes, New York dwellers Gerrit Cole (8.99; 7.50), Jacob deGrom (23.5; 5.31) and Max Scherzer (16.85; 7.18) could all be selected first too, but all of them have their warts (i.e. age, health, effectiveness) coming into 2022. Based on Steamer projections, Walker Buehler (15.1; 8.72) would be the “mistake.”
We can’t talk about Shohei Ohtani, the hitter, without discussing Ohtani, the pitcher. Considering he had the lowest NFBC ADP at the point of sample size, an 8.65 projected FP doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence despite the strides he took on the mound in 2021 (8.47 FP). However, if you can utilize him in a dual role (as NFBC allows), you are selecting Ohtani for the whole kit and kaboodle. (In the cases where Ohtani is only a pitcher – aka weirdos – his rank/ADP should already be scaled back. If not, consider that Sean Manaea has an NFBC ADP of 152.07 with an 8.60 projected FP.)
In his third MLB season, Logan Webb (56.99 NFBC ADP; 7.87 projected FP) figured it out in a big way. Chucking a 60.9% ground-ball rate certainly helped. As ADP stands now, Webb is a better value than Brandon Woodruff (18.25; 7.87), and I don’t see that changing.
Sandy Alcantara (39.47 NFBC ADP; 8.36 projected FP) may very well be the best pitcher you’ve never rostered. Glad to see him getting some love! Aaron Nola (41.48; 8.23) seldom gets enough love, especially from Philly fans, thanks to his intermittent blowups. However, if he can minimize those rough outings and put it all together, he could be a terrific draft-day value. Lastly, if Steamer projections hold true, Justin Verlander (115.39; 8.34) is gonna crush it in his return from Tommy John surgery. But that would be like him and Kate Upton remaking ‘For Love of the Game’… unlikely.
Steamer does not think the move to Toronto will go well for Kevin Gausman. Returning to the American League East, which once chewed him up and spit him out in Baltimore, is logical causation. However, he is not the same pitcher, and projecting him a full run higher in ERA and almost as much in FIP is downright insulting. After all, the move North of the Border did well for José Berríos (72.65 NFBC ADP; 8.97 projected FP).
A nice drafting pocket I’m seeing is Joe Musgrove (80.5; 8.46), Charlie Morton (94.63; 7.91), Trevor Rogers (95.39; 8.13) and Shane McClanahan (108.32; 8.55). PS: Pablo López (8.10 projected FP) would be a steal at 123.3. PSS: Willing to take a shot on Blake Snell (123.94; 8.27)? I am.
More drafters are selecting Liam Hendriks compared to Josh Hader, yet the latter is projected to do a touch better, just as he performed better last season. Devin Williams factor? Both Liam and Josh are being drafted too early IMO.
Signs continue to point towards Raisel Iglesias (60.32 NFBC ADP; 7.61 projected FP) being a top value and target in the relief category. As we found in our 2021 review, he posted similar FP to the aforementioned Hendricks and Hader. NFBC’ers caught up, however, as Iglesias is now being drafted two rounds later than the two on average. And for 2022, Hendricks and Hader are projected for finer fantasy production (difference of 1.21). But I’ll take a reliever who ranks among Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler, thank you vurry mooch.
Equally as potent, Ryan Pressly gets slept on more often than Iglesias (73.6 NFBC ADP) with similar projected returns (7.54 projected FP). I wrote more about Pressly last time out.
Appears Steamer is projecting a sophomore slump for Emmanuel Clase (65.48; 7.00) in Cleveland. Yet, his FP lies among Burnes and Max Scherzer (16.85; 7.18). Draft this man!
Much like Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson, Edwin Díaz (71.2; 6.87) gets no respect. But that’s what happens when you give up random gopher balls in key situations. Get the big outs 95-99% of the time, and this man would be Mariano-like. . . Yeah, I heard it. 🤷 And speaking of the Yankees, you buying those projections for Aroldis Chapman (82.82; 7.13)? Cause I’m not.
WORST OF THE TOP 60
This author vehemently disagrees with Steamer’s projections for Tyler Mahle (4.25 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 4.18 FIP; 9.72 FP). FYI: his NFBC ADP at sample size… 121.86. Others I disagree with: Chris Bassitt (139.73; 9.3), Ian Anderson (139.9; 9.46)
Alek Manoah (86.39 NFBC ADP; 9.36 projected FP) vs. Dylan Cease (87.15 NFBC ADP; 9.36 projected FP)
In the Windy City, Lance Lynn (62 NFBC ADP; 9.26 projected FP) and Lucas Giolito (40.04; 9.29) are projected to perform about the same for 2022. However, they are not being drafted as such, despite Lynn being set to edge out Giolito.
It’s almost as if Steamer is trying to will Kenley Jansen’s demise into existence. Make your own call there!
After going through the data for the last two articles, the evidence is clear. ADP does NOT indicate resultant fantasy production. While it can be a decent road map, you can go your own way. Hopefully, at the very least, I’ve given you tools in the past two pieces to help make Your Draft Position (YDP) list. Projecting players’ performances may be a fool’s errand in this topsy-turvy world we live in, but if you examine how a player has performed in the past and match it with current trends, we can buck the system…