Top-10 Reasons to Subscribe to FantasyGuru.com for 2016
Reason #1 – Our credibility, proven track record, and professionalism
With so many sources to choose from, credibility is a very important factor when choosing a fantasy service. We contend that NO fantasy site or service can match us in terms of longevity, credibility, and professionalism, and our track record.
We’ve been publishing since 1995, an eternity in the fantasy industry. In 2016, we’re celebrating our 22nd year in business, and our reputation is impeccable in the industry. Many of our competitors haven’t been playing fantasy football as long as we’ve been publishing this site.
We’ve led the charge in this industry in many ways and were the first to produce many different types of content that are staples in the business now. Here are some
- First fantasy columnists/content providers to ESPN.com (1995)
- First on-air fantasy experts on NFL.com (2002)
- First on-air fantasy analysts for NFL Network (2003)
- First print magazine to interview an NFL player (2003)
- First fantasy sports contributors for Sirius Satellite Radio (2004)
- First fantasy analysts offering real-time analysis during the games on DirecTV’s Fantasy Zone channel (2014).
- (Likely the) First fantasy site to send out a “Breaking News” update (1997)
- (Likely the) First site to use the stock market analogy for fantasy (1995)
- One of the first sites (if not the first) to track pass target numbers (1997)
- One of the first sites to track average draft positions (1999)
- Over the last couple of years, Greg Cosell of NFL Films has emerged as one of the nation’s foremost NFL personnel and matchup analysts. He’s quoted by a lot of other fantasy sites, but he’s actually worked with and consulted for us for a decade.
- We ran our own DFS/Salary cap game starting way back in 2010, introducing many of our readers to DFS/weekly salary cap contests.
Unlike the other fantasy services, we’re on the inside when it comes to the NFL. Members of our staff a talk to NFL players, coaches, agents, and beat writers; we attend events such as the NFL Combines, NFL Draft, and Training Camps with full-credential access; we’re constantly discussing the league with key insiders and analysts who talk to coaches and players and break down coach’s tape. We’re truly a professional staff, and even our other full-timers came from strong NFL backgrounds, having done work for PhiladelphiaEagles.com and NFL Films, while also serving as football editors for Penn State's student-run newspaper.
Here’s a clip of us from 2015 interviewing Raven WR Steve Smith talking about his 2014 season and looking forward to 2015.
We study film! Long-time contributor Greg Cosell produces a weekly column covering the top under-the-radar matchups fantasy players should be looking to exploit each week. This exclusive and unprecedented piece of content utilized Greg's vast knowledge of personnel and matchups - culled from hours and hours of study NFL coach's tape each week - to give our readers an edge over their competitors. In addition, we have several other notable all-22 film analysts assisting us with our analysis.
We’re helping people win in DFS.
Led by our DFS analyst Kevin Adams, an 8-time DFS finalist and 2013 SiriusXM Salary Cap champion (beating out over 7,000 entries), our picks have been on fire in 2014 and 2015, and you can see proof of some success stories by checking out a few of these tweets:
· Our DFS Guru tool helped this user win $30,000 and a ticket to FanDuel’s World Championship (he ended up winning $120k).
· This individual joined the site on a Saturday and used our projections to win $15,000 that weekend.
We've been all over T.V. and radio. In 2014, Publisher John Hansen was asked to be the chief fantasy analyst for the brand-new “Fantasy Zone” Channel on DirecTV, which was the first television show to offer instant fantasy analysis as the games happen with live look-ins and commentary during the games. Hansen also appeared on the Fantasy Fix TV show on Comcast Sportsnet’s local stations, which also aired nationally on DirecTV and on other stations during the NFL season from 2003-2009. You
have also been able to hear FantasyGuru.com’s Hansen hosting “SiriusXM Fantasy Football” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Due in large part to the success of Hansen’s and (Now ESPN’s) Adam Caplan’s shows on Sirius NFL Radio from 2004-2009, the company launched an entire channel devoted to fantasy in 2010 and asked Hansen to host the channel’s signature show, “SiriusXM Fantasy Football.” In addition, Managing Editor Joe Dolan has gained a loyal following hosting the weekend edition of that show as well as the gameday show on Sundays. Hansen and Caplan have also worked as fantasy analysts alongside former NFL player Ron Jaworski on the weekly TV show NFL Fantasy Live and on the NFL Network on the Playbook show, where they appeared alongside former NFL players Sterling Sharpe and Solomon Wilcots. They were also the chief analysts on a DVD the NFL produced for fantasy football in the early 2000s.
We're elsewhere on TV, radio, and in print. We’ve appeared weekly on ESPN Radio and too many (local) radio stations to mention, as well as being interviewed by and quoted in the Wall Street Journal, San Francisco Chronicle, New York Times, Charlotte Observer, Newark Star-Ledger, Wired News, by the Associated Press, and in other publications.
We’ve earned the respect of many in the media. We’ve received testimonials from such high-profile NFL reporters and analysts as Adam Schefter, Jay Glazer, and Ron Jaworski. In addition, we get unsolicited praise from national radio hosts. Check out this clip from Sirius NFL Radio with hosts Adam Schein and Solomon Wilcots who were asked by a caller where they would get their fantasy football analysis.
Even John Madden is a fan. Publisher John Hansen has been appearing on SiriusXM NFL Radio for years now, and in 2010 Madden told the people at Sirius how much he enjoyed Hansen’s weekly spot and Madden was kind enough to cut a quick promo for Hansen’s show on Sirius. Madden was not required to do the clip whatsoever; he gladly took the time.
We published a national fantasy football magazine. FantasyGuru.com Magazine has featured interviews with such marquee NFL players as Marshawn Lynch, LaDainian Tomlinson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Smith, Clinton Portis, and Reggie Bush. In fact, it was the first fantasy magazine to ever feature a player interview. In 2010 we decided to cease publishing the magazine due to skyrocketing costs and also due to a pending lockout in 2011, one that looked problematic for fantasy football magazines.
We’ve even made it on a sitcom! That’s right; the creators of the hit comedy series The League on FXX thought so much of our site and overall fantasy acumen that they wrote us into one of their episodes in 2010. Our own John Hansen and also Adam Caplan appeared in four scenes playing themselves as fantasy football experts hosting their show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Check out the IMDB page for the episode here. We contend that no other fantasy experts can play themselves on TV better than we can.
We’ve proven our savvy in some of the top "expert" leagues on the Internet by winning 30+ championships. Boasting about success in "Expert Leagues" in the fantasy sports industry isn’t nearly as prevalent as it used to be, but our track record over the last 15-20 years is strong. In total, Hansen has won 22 expert leagues, all of them considered high-end in the industry. Managing Editor Joe Dolan has taken home titles in fantasy expert leagues the last five years (2009-2013). Dolan won the 14-team
Host League comprised solely of hosts on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Also, in 2013 we competed for the first time in Fantasy Pros' draft competition (preseason rankings for fantasy drafts) and we came in 3rd overall out of 130+ experts/site. We were also in the top 15% for regular season accuracy.
In 2014, in a 14-team 2-QB expert league that had its draft broadcast on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports radio, our Joe Dolan, Paul Kelly, and Kevin Adams each made it to the semifinals, with Kelly defeating Adams before eventually winning the league. Also in 2014, John Hansen was asked to participate in a “Pros vs. Joes” expert league and Hansen won the league due to late picks of Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry.
In addition, our writers’ articles and fantasy football player rankings have appeared in seven national fantasy football magazines. See what our customers say about our fantasy football player rankings and more.
We merged with footballinjuries.com (2008) to create the most comprehensive fantasy football information service on the Internet. Already one of the oldest and leading fantasy football information sites on the Internet, in 2008 we merged with the highly respected footballinjuries.com.
Footballinjuries.com had been the premier news and injury information service for the previous 14 years and was owned by Steve Cohen, Jay Glazer, and Adam Caplan. FantasyGuru.com subscribers have been benefitting from inside information ever since.
Reason #2 – Our content quality and uniqueness
We're not infallible, but over the last 20 years, you would be hard-pressed to find a more reliable source of fantasy analysis and prognostication anywhere, as our subscribers have come to expect, and our competitors have consistently imitated (or worse, copied). Since 1995, we’ve been on the cutting edge and continue to be.
Some sites are good at regurgitating and offering up a barrage of stats; some are good at collecting a wide variety of opinions to give you the "safest" picks and rankings;
some are good at rewriting newspaper articles available to the general public. Some sites feature writers and individuals who can’t wait to show you how smart they are.
Generally speaking, here’s what we do:
- Offer extensive news and injury updates, but with the inclusion of insider information not found in newspapers (or found in them well after we’ve reported it). We give you not only the information, but also insight into the fantasy implications of the information. When situations aren’t exactly clear or known, we’re giving you the best educated guesses from those close to the situations.
- Utilize our access to legit NFL insiders and events such as the Senior Bowl, NFL Combine, Owners Meetings, etc. and NFL Coaches Tape to offer superior fantasy football analysis and overall coverage.
- Cover football extensively – not just fantasy football – by analyzing personnel and coaching philosophies and how they pertain to and affect fantasy production. In other words, we’re not just using statistics and numbers to analyze players and teams. We’re analyzing talent, offensive and defensive systems, matchups, etc.
- Back up our extensive analysis with the appropriate statistical data, especially unique data that cannot be found in newspapers or on sites like nfl.com and espn.com.
- Cover DFS utilizing our advanced tape study and data analysis along with intelligent and insightful DFS guidance on bankroll management, format and player salary variances, and much more.
- Offer proven and well thought-out "gut feelings" and fantasy instincts culled from two decades of producing our site and, in our publisher’s case, from playing fantasy football since the mid-80s.
- Offer numerous stat-based tools (Points Allowed tool, SOS tool, History tool, etc.) to enhance the user experience even further and aid in the fantasy football decision-making process. Note: In 2016, we’ll be unveiling a brand new stats database with a TON of new features and tools. This will truly be “next level” stuff that will greatly help us contextualize performances and matchups.
- Present our information in a variety of forms, including standard text pages, blogs, message boards, podcasts, Twitter posts, smart phone apps, and more.
- Deliver a ton of content via e-mail and our MyGuru app, plus online on the site, of course.
- And while you will find some difference of opinions among our writers from time-to-time, we mostly offer up a singular message, one carefully analyzed by our staff, aimed at giving our readers a clear picture.
We do all this in a professional and well-written way that is not only informative, but it’s also entertaining (and sometimes even humorous).
We invite you to visit our “What You Get” page to see exactly what you’ll receive as a subscriber. Finally, we should note that, while we have a TON of features that we welcome subscribers to take advantage of, we make it easy for subscribers to utilize as much or as little of our content as they see fit. There’s no need to get overwhelmed with the wealth of information and tools we have to offer. If you want the bare minimum (just the facts, projections, etc.), it’s easy to find and use.
Reason #3 – Our advanced stat tools and tech features
We’ve made major strides in this area over the last couple of years, and in 2016, we’re re-launching the site and offering a brand new and powerful statistical database. This new infrastructure will allow us to implement myriad changes and upgrades in 2016! Stay tuned for details here and on our “What you get” page (we should have all details up by early June).
Here’s just a small sampling of some of the tools our subscribers enjoyed in 2015 and will have access to again this year:
- Draft Guru iPhone/iPad and Android App: Available in 2016 in the early summer for iPhone/iPad and Android phones and tablets, this powerful app is entering its fifth year of existence and is a fantastic tool for mock drafting against the computer, and it’s also set up to be used to track and maximize your own drafts. With constantly updated projections (at least 2X a week) you can rest easy knowing you have all our picks built into advice designed to help you dominate. This app is FREE for subscribers.
- MyGuru iPhone/iPad and Android Phone/Table App – Take us with you and get custom news, practice reports, injury updates, projections, customized starting lineup suggestions, articles, depth charts, and much more right on your smart phone or iPad. This app is FREE for subscribers.
- Draft Guru Software: This web-based software will work on a PC or a Mac and is a fantastic tool for running quick and easy mock drafts or analyzing your real drafts as they happen in real time or after the fact. And the best part? The version of the software posted on our site is synced up with FantasyGuru.com, so all of our
- projections, rankings, and recommendations are built right into the software. As we update our projections twice a week, they are also updated in the software.
- Draft Analyzer Software: For those who prefer this award-winning software, your 2016 subscription will also include a FREE license to the Draft Analyzer Software loaded with our projections.
- 2015 Draft Tool: Using this downloadable, stand-alone Excel program, easily track and manage your online or offline drafts, and use the tool to maximize your Value-Based Drafting and much more.
- 2016 Auction Guru Tool: Using this downloadable, stand-alone Excel program, you can easily dominate your auction! Before your draft, you will enter all the basic info for your league. At the start, the tool will have an estimated “highest bid” for each player. In addition to using our projections as the baseline for dollar values, we’ll actually be incorporating Mike Horn’s 2016 Price Tiers for the various positions into this tool, so it will have 2016-specific auction intelligence built in. As people get drafted, you enter the bid amount and the team they went to. The tool then does real-time update values for players (based on our projections), adjusting for factors like: owners over or under-bidding for players (adjusts value of other guys left), whether people have filled their slots for starters and likely reserves, and other key stuff. It will essentially give you updated “best bids” based on how the draft has gone so far. That is how you will dominate!
- DFS Guru Tool – In 2015, we had our own DFS “alGUrithm” that can help you crunch the numbers and cash in playing DFS. Note: This tool is only available in Excel and requires a separate purchase.
- Guru Database: Deep statistical database of fantasy football information spanning the past 10 years. This gives us the ability to build software to isolate top performers, best matchups, SOS, and much more.
- MyGuru: A personalized portal to all of your fantasy football information. Create your fantasy teams (scoring system, number of starters, roster, etc.) here in minutes, and all season you can view custom information for your players, including player news, customized expert fantasy football projections, suggested starting lineups, and more. If you don’t have time to utilize all our offerings, simple set up your team(s) here in minutes and have all the information you need (injury updates, custom projections, suggested starting lineups) available at the click of a mouse.
- Custom Preseason and In-Season Fantasy Football Projections: Custom built and sortable, expert offensive skill, special team, and IDP projections, strictly based on your scoring system.
- Custom Preseason and In-Season Cheat Sheets - As a bonus, customized rankings can be generated in cheat sheet form (even one-page) for easy access and viewing in the preseason and for each week of the regular season.
- Roster Analyzer: Use this powerful tool to help with your lineup decisions. Set up your scoring systems and how many players you start at each position in MyGuru, and this tool will suggest a starting lineup for you, completely customized to your scoring system.
- Player Comparison Tool – This tool allows users to easily compare players graph form and includes every possible position and stat (as well as fantasy points in your custom scoring system) possible.
- Player Consistency Tool - Use this tool when looking to make trades, pick up off the WW, or for any reason. Easily see a player's consistency in terms of scoring (in your customized scoring system) in graph form.
- Guru Glance – This tool is another way for subscribers to take advantage of a multitude of our database benefits with only one click. While on our site, simply click on a player’s name and you’ll quickly see a ton of useful info like remaining SOS, his history against his next opponent, and much more.
- Stat-Based Projections – Each Tuesday morning, subscribers can view player projections for each upcoming week, based solely on their scoring system(s) and the numbers each defense is giving up to every position.
- Trade Analyzer: Using technology similar to our Roster Analyzer, this tool allows you to enter two sides of a proposed trade, and the tool will then analyze the trade and indicate how favorable or unfavorable the deal is for you.
- Points-Allowed Tool: For all positions, including IDPs, see what teams are giving up the most/least points to each fantasy position in your scoring system(s) over the schedule range you select.
- Strength of Schedule Tool: We measure strength of schedule by looking at the fantasy points allowed by each team to a given position and then summing up and averaging those points over the schedule range you select. The SOS shown can be customized to YOUR league’s scoring system, so it’s SOS in YOUR league.
- IDP Stud Report: Keep track of the defensive leaders easily and effectively. Track all major defensive stats, as well as who’s creating most of the opportunities for their teams, with overall contribution percentages.
- Matchup History Tool: Player rankings that are 100% tied to each player’s past history against this week’s opponent. Plus you can easily view your player’s matchup history versus this week’s opponent. View rankings for each week of the NFL by position, based solely on the players’ fantasy points per game against their opponents for each week of the NFL season. Also view each player’s game logs against a specific opponent going back to 2002.
Note: We are still developing many new tools and enhancements for 2016; everything listed above was offered in 2015, but there will be even more tools offered utilizing our brand new and powerful DB to provide even more information than ever.
Reason #4 - Our comprehensiveness and content delivery
There are hundreds of fantasy football sites on the Internet, but none of them can approach our level of comprehensiveness. As a subscriber, you’ll enjoy a one-stop-shop for fantasy information and analysis you can trust, along with statistical and technical tools. Our preseason and in-season reports cover fantasy from every imaginable angle, and we feverishly update content each day/week. We also provide the most in-depth analysis of NFL teams, coaches, and, of course, players. Statistical and schedule analysis is also a very strong point. There’s much more, too. And unlike competing publications that collect your money, issue you a password, and then leave you completely on your own all year, Fantasyguru.com prides itself in keeping in close contact with its subscribers throughout the season.
Not only that, but we devote extra resources so we have a mailing system that can e-mail our entire subscriber list in less than 5 minutes – even a 100-page e-mail if need be. These e-mails contain a large percentage of the content we post on our site. FantasyGuru.com is a service, not just a site.
Whenever we lift a finger, you'll either be e-mailed the content directly or will be notified by e-mail when we produce new content that is too large to e-mail. By the time the season is over, we'll likely e-mail you 140-150 times with full reports, notification that large reports have been posted online in our subscriber area, and breaking news updates. We'll also produce 2,500 pages of content (with no fluff), 150+ different editorial sections, and 700+ articles or features, total. In addition to keeping in close contact via e-mail, we also provide you with your own username and password, which will enable you to access our premium content whenever and wherever you want.
Reason #5 – Our interactive and multimedia content
In 2007 we began producing weekly and bi-weekly Podcasts, which only enhanced our offerings and provided subscribers with even more information delivered in new ways.
Our John Hansen, who is a radio veteran in this industry, hosts many of our podcasts. Hansen also hosts “SiriusXM Fantasy Football” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. During the season, we’ll produce three different informative podcasts, including our Matchup Podcast with John Hansen joined by a veteran of NFL analysis, Greg Cosell of NFL films and the Senior Producer of the NFL Matchup show that airs on ESPN. We’ve also got you covered with two more weekly podcasts hosted by Managing Editor Joe Dolan covering WW pickups and more. No fantasy site can match our ability to offer some of the most insightful NFL analysis that Cosell brings to the table, since he spends countless hours each week analyzing coach's tape along with Ron Jaworski.
In 2009, we hit Twitter hard, and in our first six years, we’ve as a staff “Tweeted” over 50,000 times (on JUST fantasy football, as of April 2015) and our staff combines to have over 130,000 followers (as of April 2016).
Many of our readers absolutely love our updates, insight, and even our humor on Twitter. Thanks to this tool, we’re able to offer up information, insight, and analysis displayed right on our homepage from anywhere and at any time. This is especially convenient for breaking news. Also, we believe we have the most followers of ANY independently owned (not by a major media company) fantasy information service on the planet.
You can also get updates on our various blogs, podcasts, and more by become a fan of our site on Facebook.
You can also get updates on our various blogs, podcasts, and more by become a fan of our site on Facebook.
We also regularly conduct informative polls, make blog posts readers can comment on, and regularly host expert chat sessions, giving our customers access to our insiders on a wide variety of topics.
Reason #6 – Our longevity and originality
We started publishing in 1995 as a printed, hard-copy newsletter, and in each year that followed, our company has grown by leaps and bounds and has become stronger and
better than the year before. You'd be surprised how many other fantasy services are run by people who also have full-time jobs. Fantasy Football IS our full-time and only job.
Over the last few years, we have seen many, many sites attempting to imitate and duplicate our content. For example, we believe we invented the "Breaking News" e-mail update in 1997 when we sent one out to advise readers to pick up then-rookie Corey Dillon after news broke that starter Ki-Jana Carter was out for the season. There have been many, many examples of other sites copying our content ideas.
We can't control imitation by others, but the fact that we have seen others using our ideas only motivates us to improve our content continually to stay one step ahead of the competition.
Wouldn't you rather get your information and analysis from an original, the service to which the other services subscribe?
Reason #7 – We do more for less, and time is money
First and foremost, we haven't raised our subscription price in our 22 years of publishing. In fact, we continually add more and more content and cool technical features without passing any of the costs along to our subscribers. Our costs to host and manage our site, for example, have increased 500% the last 5-6 years, yet our subscription price remains the same.
And if you’re a previous subscriber, at the end of each season, you’re always able to re-subscribe for the next year at a price that is lower than the going rate right as the season ends. Feel free to review our Subscription Features (the "What You Get" page) for overviews on the 2,500+ pages of content (with no fluff), 150+ different editorial sections, and 700+ articles or features total we will publish in 2015.
And while we certainly do not dispute the fact that there are other sites that are viable and do not charge a fee for information, we contend that no free (or pay) site can approach the level of comprehensiveness offered by FantasyGuru.com. What this means for the user is that he or she would have to search several sites to approach the level of information and analysis contained within FantasyGuru.com.
Since time is money, and users who must search the web for hours upon hours waste a significant amount of time, the alternative would be to subscribe toFantasyGuru.com. With a subscription, all the information – NFL news, injury updates, fantasy analysis, fantasy football player rankings, etc. – that a fantasy player could possibly need is delivered conveniently to his or her e-mail inbox for less than $1 a week.
Reason #8 – Everyone needs an edge these days
Never before has fantasy football been so competitive and difficult to navigate than it is right now – and it’s only going to get more heated and complicated. 10-15 years
ago, it was thought to be a stretch to charge a fee for fantasy information, but we did it successfully then. Now, with more and more companies following our lead and charging a fee for information, subscribing to FantasyGuru.com is not merely a wise investment; many would say it’s a must. Unless you play for low stakes (less than $100), there’s a good chance at least one person in your league is subscribing to our site, and the odds are favorable that he or she is doing well.
If you’re a novice player, you’ll be helped greatly by our insightful analysis and strategies, our fantasy football player rankings and projections, sleeper picks, and all of our news and injury coverage (and more).
If you’re a savvy player, you’ll enjoy the convenience of not having to search multiple sites for info and scramble on Sundays wondering if your star player is going to play. You’ll also appreciate a well-informed opinion to compare with your own (and more). Again, you will not find a better combination of experienced and well thought-out fantasy analysis, inside information, and quality NFL personnel scouting than what we offer at FantasyGuru.com. And finally, you’ll get a noticeable edge by utilizing our various stat-based technical tools.
Reason #9 – Our loyalty to our subscribers
We've never been out to make a quick buck and capitalize on the success of fantasy sports. We want to keep you as a subscriber for a long time, and we work diligently to ensure you're satisfied, understanding that our users expect a constantly improving product. We wouldn't settle for anything less. We have, without a shadow of a doubt, improved our service in each of our 19 years of publishing. We’re constantly tweaking our site design based on reader feedback, and we’re always adding new technical improvements and database-driven upgrades and offerings. And 2015 will be no different, with some major technical enhancements, smart phone app development, more
interaction, and more content than ever, since we have a larger staff than ever.
Our subscription renewal rate is better than 88%, which is very high. Plus, as mentioned above, when you subscribe once at the regular price, you'll forever have the opportunity to renew your subscription at a price substantially lower than "the going rate."
Not only that, but at the end of every season, we welcome subscribers to play in a special playoff league contest and compete against other FantasyGuru.com readers. We will give away cash prizes ($3000 in 2016) and free subscriptions for 2017 and for life.
Reason #10 – Because YOU can be a Fantasy and DFS Guru!
We’ve been in this business a very long time, and we employ not only serious fantasy experts, but also individuals who study coaches’ tape and who cover the league full-
time, so we have a lot to offer. On the DFS side, we approach playing from a variety of analytical and finance angles. From learning how to scout talent to understanding NFL schemes to wading through the coach speak, we can educate you in a way that no other site can match.
Our vision with this site is not that we’re fantasy gurus and you should listen to us; instead, it’s that we can make you a fantasy guru yourself. Armed with the information, analysis, and overall intelligence that we bring to the table, we’re sure to bring your fantasy game to another level. And even if you’re already at a professional level, you’ll still save a ton of time researching the league by just using our site – and you’ll sleep well at night knowing that our information is information you can trust.
We understand it seems ridiculous to some to pay for a fantasy information service, but we’ve been doing this for 22 years and for the 21st time in a row, we’re coming off our best year as a company.
Many of our readers were hesitant to order our service at first, but ultimately they were very glad they did. We encourage you to give us a shot. After two decades in this industry, we know for a fact that there's at least an 88% chance that you will be very glad you did.