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Week Eight Game Center
Oct. 24, 2008
San Diego (3-4) vs. New Orleans (3-4)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, London, England
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Light rain; Temperature: 60 degrees; Winds: 18 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 60%
Matchup Overview:
Hoist a pint and grab the fish and chips. Those American footballers are back in merry old London town, and these teams are fine practitioners of the art of legally using their hands to move the ball and knocking each other silly without the risk of a red card. Both the Chargers and Saints look to bounce back from discouraging losses, but the Saints will be without Reggie Bush, and they don’t play well away from home (last we looked, Wembley is a long way from Bourbon Street, even though it’s technically a “home” game for the Saints; go figure). They’ll get no sympathy, however, from the travel-weary Chargers. This will be Drew Brees' first game against his former team, so he has some extra motivation, while Philip Rivers has a chance to show that the Chargers made the right choice. It has to be a more entertaining game than last year’s rain-slicked mismatch in London, which set the game back a couple hundred years to Elizabethan times, bloody well right.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Drew Brees (QB, NO) – Brees passed for only 231 yards, with 0 TDs and 1 INT in Week Seven, as he faced a lot of pressure, had to check down a lot, and never got in a rhythm. This week, Brees should find it rather easy to pick apart a passive, soft, and uninspiring Charger defense that has given up an average of 242 yards and .8 TDs to QBs the last four weeks because they haven’t been rushing the passer well at all and their secondary has been playing poorly all season. His starting center is injured, which is a concern, and no Bush is a huge problem because he commands a lot of extra attention from defenses and provides a dangerous receiving presence. But it’s not a difficult matchup for the Saint passing game, Brees still has a nice array of weapons to work with, and the Saints are a passing team with Brees as the catalyst, so healthy digits should be forthcoming from this stud. After all, San Diego’s corners have looked far from energetic and dynamic as of late, and Brees will want to stick it to his former team. All season, QBs have had time to throw and have been very accurate, efficient, and productive against the Bolts.
Antonio Gates (TE, SD) – Gates managed 4/55 on 7 targets in Week Seven, and he appears to be doing a better job of gaining separation from defenders, which is encouraging. In fact, reports from SD are that his toe and foot is feeling better these days. With the Chargers becoming increasingly pass-happy due to their anemic rushing attack, Gates should be active and effective this week. The Saints have allowed an average of just 2/28/.2 to TEs the last four weeks, and they’ve been getting inspired play from their speedy, physical linebackers, so it’s not a cake matchup for Gates by any means. Still, the Saint secondary can be gashed for the big plays because their safeties are a liability in coverage and Gates finds mismatches against almost every defense, so expect success from him in this spot. And keep in mind the last time he played them he got them for 3 TDs a few years ago.
Vincent Jackson (WR, SD) – Jackson continued his productive 2008 campaign, with 4/42/1 on 5 targets in Week Seven, adding a 31-yard run on a reverse for good measure. Rivers consistently looks his way for big plays, and the Chargers have become a rather pass-happy team with their running game sputtering, so we see no reason why the sizeable, speedy Jackson shouldn’t be potent this week against a beatable Saint pass defense that has allowed an average of 11/160/.8 to WRs the last four weeks. He can get behind New Orleans’ sub-par safeties for a big play, as they’ve been torched repeatedly this season. And there’s nothing at all scary about the matchup because the inept Saint secondary doesn’t present much of a challenge. If Chris Chambers plays and draws corner Mike McKenzie, that’s probably a good thing for Jackson. Also, note that Chambers is still not a lock to play, through Thursday.
Philip Rivers (QB, SD) – Rivers’ bottom line of 208 yards with 2 TDs, 1 INT, and 2 lost fumbles in Week Seven was a mixture of good and bad, as he was erratic with his accuracy and decision-making. He puts up multiple TDs most weeks despite his sizeable Jekyll-and-Hyde streak, and he’s been asked to do a lot with his arm with the Charger running game stuck in neutral, so Rivers should have plenty of positive moments this week against a beatable Saint pass defense that has given up an average of 208 yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. After all, the Saint secondary does give up big plays through the air, and they’re weak at the safety position, which means Rivers could strike downfield with ease. His offensive tackles have been struggling to protect him and he really needs his ground game clicking on all cylinders to reach his full potential, but the Saints simply don’t present much of a challenge, as their pass rush is up and down, Their OL shouldn’t have a problem with the Saint ends, so Rivers should have time to throw, plus he matchup is a pretty easy one. Especially since this one could be high-scoring, and since he should have Chambers available, you can him with confidence even though you never know when he’ll go to the dark side.
Marques Colston (WR, NO) – Colston recorded no catches on 4 targets in Week Seven, and he had a pair of drops possibly due to wearing a splint to protect his surgically repaired thumb. Although we’re a little hesitant to list him as looking better than usual, he’s bound to be busy this week with Bush out of the offensive equation, and the pass-happy Saints sure to take to the air plenty. But until we see him get on the same page with Brees, command the rock, and secure the ball without any problems, we’re not expecting an explosion from him. His matchup against a reeling, soft Charger secondary that has allowed an average of 12/117/.5 to WRs the last four weeks isn’t a very challenging one, so he should be able to make some plays. But a return to peak form may be asking a lot, as he showed some serious rust a week ago in his return to the lineup. And boy, does Brees like to spread it around. Still, Colston could easily get into the flow and find this endzone in this very favorable matchup.
Jeremy Shockey (TE, NO) – Shockey registered 5/50 on 7 targets in Week Seven, but he experienced some pain related to his sports hernia, and he admitted he’s not 100% healthy. Even with his injury baggage, he stands an excellent chance of posting rock-solid numbers this week against a reeling, passive Charger defense that has allowed an average of 3/62/.2 to TEs the last four weeks because they’ve had serious issues containing tight ends since the season kicked off. Brees really seems comfortable finding him over the middle, and the simple matchup bodes well for Shockey to find some open real estate in the heart of San Diego’s underachieving defense, so feel free to use him. Keep in mind with Bush out of the lineup, Shockey could see a spike in activity as an underneath weapon, which indicates his reception total could be juicy. Explosive plays down the seam might be out of the question, though, as Shockey will be playing through some pain.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
LaDainian Tomlinson (RB, SD) – Tomlinson was limited to 41 yards with 6/26 as a receiver in Week Seven. The Chargers have been hesitant to feed him massive touches, he’s clearly not his usual explosive self due to his lingering toe issue, and he continues to get poor blocking up front from his big uglies, so he can’t be considered an outstanding play this week against an improved Saint run defense that has given up an average of 85 yards and .2 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. New Orleans’ quick linebackers can prevent him from getting to the second level repeatedly, and the matchup isn’t an easy one (even though the Saints did get run on badly a week ago). Plus, the Chargers simply have not gotten their running game in gear this season. With that said, he’ll need to make some hay in the short passing game and see some goal-line opps to truly come through for you, as gaudy yardage between the tackles probably will be hard for him to come by. The good news here is that the Chargers clearly recognize the need to get him going, and they should try to do just that to keep Brees off the field.
Deuce McAllister (RB, NO) – McAllister looked powerful and explosive (for him) in rushing for 47 yards, with 1/6 as a receiver in Week Seven. With Bush out, McAllister figures to shoulder a heavier load if his surgically repaired knees allow him to do so. That golden opportunity makes him a reasonable play this week against a somewhat soft, and somewhat vulnerable Charger run defense that has given up an average of 103 yards and .8 TDs to RBs the last four weeks, even with his starting center banged up. While Pierre Thomas and Aaron Stecker will chip in meaningfully, particularly in the short passing game, Deuce should be solid, and he’s likely to be involved in goal-line situations due to his strength and physicality. Just keep in mind that at his age, his ceiling is lower than it once was. And remember DT Jamal Williams can effectively clog the middle, where Deuce will be asked to operate.
Chris Chambers (WR, SD) – Chambers should return to the lineup this week after missing the last two games with an ankle injury, so he’s a viable play against a mediocre Saint pass defense that has given up an average of 11/160/.8 to WRs the last four weeks. The Chargers have become a pass-heavy team that takes its shots downfield each game, and New Orleans’ safeties are incredibly vulnerable to the deep ball. Plus, Chambers’ size should give the shaky Saint corners some problems in this good matchup. We’re just hesitant to tout him as a strong play coming off the layoff, and his linger ankle issue limits his upside. And the tall, sure-handed Malcom Floyd has earned the right to more looks as the #3, which may cut into Chambers’ opportunities – assuming he plays, which isn’t a lock yet. Still, the Chargers can’t seem to run it with any consistency, so Chambers if he starts, will be needed in this one, which makes him useable.
Lance
Moore (WR, NO) – Moore remained involved in Week Seven, even with the return
of Shockey and Colston, posting 3/10 on 7 targets. Moore stands a
chance of doing some damage this week against an inept, passive
Charger pass defense that has given up an average of 12/117/.5 to
WRs the last four weeks. Brees should throw the rock all over the
field, as usual, and have success picking on San Diego’s struggling
corners, so Moore’s a good bet to catch a handful of passes in this
favorable matchup, especially since he may be relied on to account
for some of the lost receiving production of Bush, who’s on the
shelf. It’s just that his upside is limited by Brees’ penchant for
spreading the ball around to all his weapons.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
San Diego Defense – This is a very inconsistent defense, and it is coming off a do-nothing game against Buffalo (no sacks or turnovers) in which they got no inside or outside pressure on the quarterback, and their cornerbacks were exposed. It doesn’t get much easier this week against Drew Brees, a tough matchup for any fantasy defense, but at least the Saints have some protection issues that showed up last week, when Brees was under pressure all day from Carolina. And they will likely be without starting center Jonathan Goodwin, which hurts. The weather in London (rain, wind) might put a damper on the Saint passing offense, and Reggie Bush is out, so the Chargers are not to be dismissed totally this week, just not a great play.
Too Risky To Play:
New
Orleans Defense
– This
is a mediocre fantasy defense that is only viable in very favorable
matchups, and that’s not necessarily the case here. The Saints don’t
get a lot of pressure, don’t defend the pass or the run very well,
and don’t score, so what’s left? Well, Philip Rivers is
always capable of the poor decision here or the bad throw there (he
had three turnovers last week against Buffalo), and his passing
attack could be hindered by injuries and bad weather. If that floats
your boat, roll with the Saints. Otherwise, find a better option.
Reaches of the Week:
Devery Henderson (WR, NO) – Henderson got the start in Week Seven and posted 3/80 on 6 targets, continuing his activity as a field-stretcher for Brees. He’s a hit-or-miss guy for fantasy because all he really does is go deep, but we like Henderson as a reach this week against a struggling Charger pass defense that has given up an average of 12/117/.5 to WRs the last four weeks. That’s because San Diego’s lethargic corners and sub-par safeties remain vulnerable to big plays through the air, and their lack of a pass rush makes the Chargers even more vulnerable to the big play. With Brees sure to once again key the offense with a heaping helping of throws and exploit San Diego’s shaky secondary, Henderson should be in a position to register a big gainer or two in this non-threatening matchup if you need some explosiveness. This looks like a matchup in which head coach Sean Peyton will want to take some shots.
History Report:
These teams met last back in Week Nine of 2004 at New Orleans, with the Chargers winning, 43-17.
Lineup Updates:
- With starter Reggie Bush out, RB Deuce McAllister should start and should get 12-15 carries. But backup Aaron Stecker will play and assume more of Bush’s role in the passing game. Backup Pierre Thomas could see some touches as well.
- Charger starting WR Chris Chambers (ankle) was limited again in Thursday’s practice, but the team is optimistic that he’ll be able to play. Backup WR Malcom Floyd would fill in if he can’t play or is limited in the game.
- Saint TE Jeremy Shockey (hernia) was limited in Thursday’s practice, but is expected to start. Shockey isn’t close to 100% and clearly came back at least two weeks too early from surgery.
- Saint WR David Patten has practiced this week and if he can all week, he should be available.
Special Teams Report:
Darren Sproles is the dual-return man, no doubt about it. But traveling to London might force the team to get more players involved in the game to avoid early fatigue. If Sproles gets involved on offense, then Antonio Cromartie could handle a few kick returns. The Saints kicked off just twice in Week Seven but allowed returns of 26 and 22 yards. Sproles faces the Saints new punter Ben Graham. While with the Jets, Graham’s punts were returned 7.2 yards on average. With Reggie Bush out, Pierre Thomas could be more involved on offense. That could open the door for Aaron Stecker to handle kickoffs for the next few weeks. But Stecker could also be involved on offense, thus recently signed Courtney Roby could be in the mix if active for the game. The problem here is that only two of the last 14 Charger kickoffs have been returned for more than 21 yards. Lance Moore will handle punts in Bush’s absence, but he faces a punter who is having an All-Pro season.
Game
Prediction:
Saints 21 Chargers 20
Kansas City (1-5) at New York Jets (3-3)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, East Rutherford, NJ
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Mostly sunny; Temperature: 61 degrees; Winds: 8 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Matchup Overview:
Calling Mr. Favre. The Chiefs are in serious disarray, and not even the toll-free Brett Favre scouting hotline could help Herm Edwards here against his old team. A troubled Chief team featuring a third-string quarterback (Tyler Thigpen), an inactive starting running back (Larry “Not Worth a Spit” Johnson), a disgruntled All-Pro tight end and the second-worst defense in the league must deal with Favre and the Jets coming off that brutal overtime loss in Oakland a week ago. Favre is coming off his worst game of the season, and he has thrown two picks in each of the last two weeks. But RB Thomas Jones is rolling now, and Jones should be salivating (not spitting) at the thought of facing a Chief run defense that allowed the Titans to gash them for 332 yards last week.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Thomas Jones (RB, NYJ) – Jones looked quick and fresh in rushing for 159 yards, with 1/0 as a receiver in Week Seven, showing great lateral movement and elusiveness. Look for Jones to be emphasized this week, get ample touches, and excel against an atrocious Chief run defense that has allowed an average of 212 yards and 2 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. Kansas City’s front seven is a mess, they give up big runs up the middle and to the outside, and they often miss tackles and blow gap assignments, so Jones really couldn’t ask for a better matchup. And considering he piled up over 100 total yards and scored a TD last year against this defense, he’s darn near a shoe-in to go off. Keep in mind it’s not unusual for backs to kill this defense, so you better start Tom Jones.
Jerricho Cotchery (WR, NYJ) – Cotchery had a measly 1/0 on 8 targets in Week Seven, as he was hampered by a leg injury. Assuming he’s good to go this week, Cotchery’s very viable against a less-than-stellar Chief pass defense that has given up an average of 11/152/.7 to WRs the last four weeks and that doesn’t put up much resistance. There’s very little rhythm or explosiveness to the Jet passing game at this point, and the Jets should control this contest with a heavy dose of the run, which could hurt Cotchery, particularly since he’s banged up. But he was productive against the Chiefs last season with 8/76, which instills confidence, and he appears to be better off that Coles this week. And by no means is it a difficult matchup, as the rookie Chief corners and slow Chief safeties can be exploited. Favre’s been dinking-and-dunking rather than stretching the field, but since the Chiefs lack a pass rush, that could chance. It is a good matchup, and Coles is very iffy as of Friday morning, so we’re listing him here in this category.
N.Y. Jets Defense – The Jets are rolling up some fantasy points with their defense (10.5 ppg over the last five), although they didn’t do much last week in what looked like a favorable matchup against Oakland. Still, they get Tyler Thigpen and a brutal Kansas City offensive line here, plus a terrible offense, in general, so you have to give them a chance. DE Shaun Ellis has a sack in five of his last six games, and the pressure up front could result in some big plays in the secondary. Expect NYJ to blitz and get after the inexperienced Thigpen. They could do something in the return game, too, if top threat Leon Washington can learn to catch a punt before starting to run with it. They’re playing at home, probably teeing off on Thigpen with a big lead, so this is a must-play.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Brett
Favre (QB, NYJ) – Favre struggled immensely in Week Seven, throwing for only
197 yards, with 0 TDs and 2 INTs because his O-line did a lousy job
of protecting him. Picks have been a bugaboo for him all season, and
the Jet passing game has been disturbingly limited and vanilla, but
Favre should get in a groove and post nice digits this week against
a suspect Chief pass defense that has permitted an average of 240
yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. He can make a few big
plays on Kansas City’s inept safeties, who can’t cover the back end
to save their lives. And he can pick on the inexperienced Chief
corners, who have been inconsistent. After all, he should have more
time than usual to throw, since the Chiefs have no pass rush to
speak of, and he’s had a lot of success against this defense in the
past. The only concern here is that he may not have to launch an
all-out aerial assault because his ground game should roll. But he’s
viable this week.
Dwayne Bowe (WR, KC) – Even with three different Chief QBs seeing action, the blossoming Bowe found a way to get it done for fantasy in Week Seven, with 7/86 on 9 targets. Clearly, with the ultra-shaky Thigpen likely to start this week, Bowe’s not a sensational play. After all, the Jet defense is physical and aggressive and they play hard, so it could be a tough go for the disgraceful Chief offense as a whole. But he’s the go-to wideout in this offense, and the Chiefs won’t run it consistently, so he figures to be extremely active and moderately productive against a Jet secondary that has given up an average of 17/205/1 to WRs the last four weeks. Matching up against stud CB Darrelle Revis won’t be a walk in the park, though. And Bowe posted a pathetic 1/13 against this defense last year. So even though Bowe is a specimen with great hands, he more than likely won’t be truly potent.
Tony Gonzalez (TE, KC) – Gonzalez had some beautiful grabs in Week Seven, posting 6/97 on 8 targets. Given that he’ll have to make due with the inept Thigpen this week, you shouldn’t expect massive production from him against a Jet defense that has permitted an average of just 3/35/0 to TEs the last four weeks. He’ll be a big factor, no doubt, because the Chiefs won’t run it well. But we don’t trust Thigpen to get him the ball accurately and allow him to battle his way for wholesome YAC, which is why we’re pretty lukewarm on his potential. Fortunately, he had a serviceable 7/64 against the Jets last year, so there’s a glimmer of hope for him in this tougher matchup.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Kolby Smith (RB, KC) – He’ll start for Larry Johnson, who will be out for the second straight week due to off-field issues. In Week Seven, Smith got the start and rushed for 20 yards with 2/5 as a receiver, while change-of-pace back Jamaal Charles rushed for 17 yards with 4/26 as a receiver. The Jet run defense is stout up the middle and tough to penetrate with DT Kris Jenkins playing like a beast, and they’ve allowed an average of just 58 yards and 1 TD to RBs the last four weeks. It’s a terrible matchup and the pathetic Chief O-line could be physically dominated by New York’s aggressive, hard-hitting defense, so Smith isn’t much of a fantasy option, especially with the rookie Charles a good bet to see some passes and some action, since he’s a better option when they are playing from behind, which they will be.
Laveranues Coles (WR, NYJ) – Coles quietly posted 4/51 on 6 targets in Week Seven, suffering as a result of Favre’s inability to get time from his big uglies. The Jets clearly have a limited passing game right now, and they should be able to get by this week with a run-heavy approach, so Coles is essentially just an okay play against a lackluster Chief secondary that has allowed an average of 11/152/.7 to WRs the last four weeks. Of course, the biggest problem with Coles (concussion/thigh) is that he didn’t practice again Thursday and is considered very questionable to play. If he does play, his veteran savvy will help him outmaneuver Kansas City’s rookie corners and catch several balls on possession-type routes, and some red zone love is certainly possible. He needs to practice fully on Friday for us to feel good about him, though. Right now, as of Friday morning, it’s not looking very good.
Too Risky To Play:
Tyler
Thigpen (QB, KC) – Thigpen came off the bench in Week Seven and threw for 76
yards with 21 yards and 1 TD as a runner. He’s a low-end player who
has no business starting in the NFL, so you shouldn’t risk it with
him this week. The Jet pass defense has allowed an average of 275
yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks, and they lack a
threatening pass rush, which means Thigpen will make the occasional
play to Bowe and Gonzalez. But he can’t be trusted for fantasy
purposes because of his limited arsenal of skills, his erratic
accuracy, and the conservative nature of Kansas City’s passing game.
Forget it.
Kansas City Defense – They have virtually no pass rush (1
sack in the last 4 games), Brett Favre is difficult to sack,
anyway, and they can’t stop the run at all. Their only hope is that
Favre’s bad game a week ago (two picks, three sacks, RT Damian
Woody struggling big-time) carries over to this week. But that’s
not likely.
Reaches of the Week:
Leon Washington (RB, NYJ) – Washington scampered for 19 yards and 1 TD, with 3/21 as a receiver in Week Seven. He’s a nice reach this week if you’re strapped for options because the terrible Chief front seven is an undisciplined, soft unit that struggles with tackling and one that permits huge gains on the ground. Considering Kansas City has allowed an average of 212 yards and 2 TDs to RBs the last four weeks, Washington figures to pick up some useful yardage and make a big play on the perimeter as the change-of-pace back in New York’s run-heavy attack. In case you were wondering, Little Leon mustered 80 total yards last year against the Chiefs in his secondary role, and backup Jesse Chatman has been relegated to special team’s duty.
Dustin Keller (TE, NYJ) – This well has ben dry for the last few games, but we’re taking another shot this week. Chris Baker posted 5/42 on 9 targets last week, while Keller mustered just 1/6 on 3 targets, but Baker’s a little banged up this week and it his action was likely a function of the matchup, as the Raiders got to Favre. With the Jet WRs both banged up, Keller’s a definite reach this week against a Chief pass defense that has permitted an average of 3/52/0 to TEs the last four weeks. There’s no question that Kansas City’s lousy safeties can be gashed down the seam for big plays, which gives the athletic Keller some tangible upside potential. If you’re looking to swing for the fences, we submit Keller to you.
History Report:
The 2007 season ended for these teams at the Meadowlands, and the Jets came out on top, 13-10.
Lineup Updates:
- If Jet WR Laveranues Coles can’t play, backup WR Brad Smith would likely start for him. If Cotchery can’t play, backup WR Chansi Stuckey would likely start for him.
- Jet PK Mike Nugent is out again, so veteran Jay Feely will kick again for NY.
- Chief QB Tyler Thigpen starts and will be backed up by new signee Quinn Gray.
- Chief RB Kolby Smith will start for Larry Johnson. Rookie Jamaal Charles will back him up and see carries and pass targets behind him.
Special Teams Report:
Larry Johnson will not play again this Sunday. Even though Jamaal Charles will be involved on offense because of LJ’s suspension, he could once again assist Dantrell Savage and Maurice Leggett on kickoffs. There could as many as six kickoffs sent the Chiefs’ way, and while Savage will handle the bulk of them, the Jets allow an average of just 17 yards per return. In fact, they didn’t allow a return of more than 20 yards in Week Seven. Leon Washington will be lucky to see three kickoffs come his way this week. Still, he should fare well with the limited opportunities. In their last 13 kickoffs, the Chiefs have allowed returns of 36, 27, 24, 25, 31, 30, and 25 yards. In addition, the Chiefs also give up about 30 yards a game on punt returns, so reaching the century mark in combined return yards is a possibility for Washington.
Game Prediction:
Jets 31 Chiefs 10
Atlanta
(4-2) at Philadelphia (3-3)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, Philadelphia, PA
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Sunny; Temperature: 62 degrees; Winds: 12 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Matchup Overview:
You can go home again, especially when you’ve established yourself as a decent NFL quarterback in less than half a season. The Eagles will greet local hero Matt Ryan rudely with their disruptive blitz-happy defense and try to steal the spotlight, at least for a few hours, from that quaint baseball series going on across the street. The rookie Ryan has thrown four touchdown passes and just one interception in his last four games, and he’s shown the ability to come through in clutch situations. But the Eagles have to be equally wary of RB Michael Turner and the league’s second-best rushing attack. The Eagle offense has been up and down, but Donovan McNabb should have more than enough weapons at hand with the return of RB Brian Westbrook and receivers Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown. By the by, the Eagles are 9-0 following a bye week under Andy Reid.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Donovan McNabb (QB, Phi) – McNabb was impressive and sharp in passing for 280 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT in Week Six before the bye. He’ll get several of his key playmakers back in the lineup this week, so look for him to throw it a ton like he always does and beat up on Atlanta’s utterly woeful pass defense, which has allowed an average of 297 yards and 2 TDs to QBs the last four weeks and can only be compared to Swiss cheese. Speed-rushing DE John Abraham can give McNabb’s sluggish offensive tackles problems off the edge, so he could get banged around a bit. But all in all the Falcon pass rush is very weak outside of Abraham, which indicates McNabb should have the time he needs to get in a groove if they can handle the star DE. Plus, Atlanta’s young corners have been exposed as inept cover guys and their safeties have been simply terrible at preventing long gainers, so McNabb should pick them apart with surgical precision and add a few big plays in the vertical passing game for good measure in this cake matchup.
Brian Westbrook (RB, Phi) – Westbrook will return to the lineup this week after being inactive in Week Six before the bye with broken ribs. Although Correll Buckhalter may remain a factor to keep Westbrook from getting overworked and suffering a setback with his mid-section, #36 should get plenty of action as a runner and a receiver and prosper against a pedestrian Falcon run defense that has given up an average of 94 yards and .7 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. Space-eating DT Grady Jackson makes Atlanta’s run defense respectable on the interior, but Westbrook’s bound to make some explosive plays on the perimeter when the Eagle offense moves the ball at will against this inferior defense. And, of course, he’ll see his usual action in the red zone, where he’s basically been money this year. It’s a favorable matchup for Philly’s offense, and by default, Westbrook, so feel free to deploy him.
DeSean
Jackson (WR, Phi) – Action Jackson had yet another striking outing in Week Six
before the bye, with 6/98 on 10 targets. Even with the return of #1
guy Kevin Curtis, Jackson will start and likely stay very
involved, both as an intermediate chain-mover and a lethal
field-stretcher in Philly’s pass-happy offense. With that said, he
has to be considered a stellar play this week against a completely
hapless Falcon secondary that has given up a whopping average of
13/212/1.7 to WRs the last four weeks. The inexperienced Falcon
corners get burned for big plays on a regular basis, Atlanta’s
safeties aren’t very good, and we envision McNabb’s launching an
all-out aerial assault in this nice matchup, so Jackson should be
quite serviceable. Look for some deep shots to him, so he has nice
upside this week. Also, he’s coming into his own as a red zone
weapon, which is all the more reason to turn him loose.
Philadelphia Defense – The Eagles had a big game two weeks
ago at the 49ers, forcing three turnovers, including an interception
run back for a TD by Juqua Parker, and sacking the 49er QB
three times. They are tied for second in the NFL, with 21 sacks,
including 14 in three home games, and defensive coordinator Jim
Johnson doesn't figure to hold anything back against Falcon
rookie QB Matt Ryan. They’ve also forced 12 turnovers in the
first six games, just seven fewer than they had all last season.
Ryan hasn’t been rattled much yet, but he hasn’t faced a ravaging
defense quite like this one. The Eagles should blitz like crazy, and
they have done well for the most part against younger QBs. Plus,
DeSean Jackson is a punt returner with homerun ability, another
reason to like the Eagle DT/ST this week.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Kevin Curtis (WR, Phi) – Curtis will see his first action of 2008 this week, as he’s recovered from his sports hernia surgery and ready to roll. We love his potential to catch several balls and make a big play against an atrocious Falcon secondary that has allowed an inexcusable average of 13/212/1.7 to WRs the last four weeks, especially with McNabb sure to take a pass-first approach and attack Atlanta’s young, shaky corners and slow, vulnerable safeties with downfield throws. But Curtis may be a tad rusty coming off the long layoff, and he might not play his usual number of snaps, which is why we’re tempering expectations for him and calling him a viable (not outstanding) play. There’s no question that this is an exploitable matchup, though, and one in which the Eagle passing game should take flight.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Michael Turner (RB, Atl) – Turner registered a big-time clunker in Week Six before the bye, rushing for just 54 yards. Because the Falcons are committed to feeding him with the rookie Ryan at the helm, Turner should do okay against a regressing Eagle run defense that has permitted an average of 119 yards and .7 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. After all, the Eagle D-line has been vulnerable as of late, and they aren’t a shutdown unit against the run. Plus, the Falcons have a nasty, mauling O-line that can wear down Philly’s front seven. But we can’t say he’s looking better than usual in this tricky road matchup because the Falcons could easily fall behind and be forced to abandon the run later in the game. Also, Turner could see a stacked box for much of the day, which would make it hard for him to sustain runs and bust off a big scamper. Finally, Philly’s physical linebackers should be able to handle his punishing running style. The matchup isn’t brutal, so use him if you need him, but there’s no arguing the fact that he’s looking worse than usual (unless he does well and you want to make your case after the fact).
Roddy White (WR, Atl) – White continued his assault on the NFL, with 9/112/1 on 13 targets in Week Six before the bye. Even though he’s been making mincemeat out of every corner who lines up opposite him, you have to be prepared for White to struggle a bit this week against a talented, disciplined Philly pass defense that has permitted an average of just 6/90/.7 to WRs the last four weeks. He’ll be blanketed by elite CB Asante Samuel all day, and Ryan figures to have his hands full with Philly’s aggressive blitzes, so White’s going to have to earn every catch he notches in this brutal matchup. White posted a respectable 4/90 in his last meeting with the Eagles, but we feel big plays will be hard for him to come by this time around. Keep in mind the last time the Birds face a red hot receiver, Santana Moss, they shut him out. White’s too good to be totally shut down, but he’s clearly looking worse than usual.
Too Risky To Play:
Matt Ryan (QB, Atl) – Ryan was lights-out in Week Six before the bye, throwing for 301 yards and 1 TD. He’s been making all the throws required of him with precision, and he hasn’t been getting sacked much due to his mean-spirited O-line, but his red zone efficiency has been poor. While we’ve been really impressed with Ryan, we’re not too fond of his potential this week against a stingy, pressure-packed Eagle defense that has given up an average of 191 yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. Philly’s all-out blitzes from all angles are bound to give the inexperienced Ryan some trouble, and their secondary is not easy to throw on either, so it’s doubtful he’ll put up fantasy-friendly digits in this bad road matchup.
Jerious Norwood (RB, Atl) – Norwood gained 31 yards on the ground with 1/6 as a receiver in Week Six before the bye. He’s got an unfriendly matchup this week against a physical Eagle defense that has given up an average of 119 yards and .7 TDs to RBs the last four games, so it’s not wise to risk using him. He’s a guy you deploy only when his opponent is a joke, as he plays second fiddle to Turner. Plus, Norwood lacks the power to thrive against a smash-mouth defense like Philly’s.
Michael Jenkins (WR, Atl) – Jenkins posted 4/58 on 5 targets in Week Six before the bye, continuing his rather uneventful 2008 season. With Harry Douglas emerging slightly as a viable slot guy for Atlanta, Laurent Robinson healthy and set to see more snaps in multiple-wideout formations, and his bad matchup against a smothering Eagle pass defense that has permitted an average of only 6/90/.7 to WRs the last four weeks, Jenkins is far from a safe play this week. In addition, we expect Ryan to have difficulty with Philly’s swarming pressure packages and talented secondary, so now’s definitely not the time to dabble with Jenkins if you’re seeking a flyer.
Reggie
Brown (WR, Phi) – A groin problem kept Brown out in Week Six before the bye,
and if he even plays this week, he’s expected to be rotated in and
out of the lineup. Given the likelihood that he’ll see reduced snaps
if he goes, Brown’s a pretty risky play this week, even with his
beautiful matchup against a terrible Falcon secondary that has given
up an average of 13/212/1.7 to WRs the last four weeks. In theory,
Brown should be in a position to make a few plays in the
intermediate and deep passing game when McNabb has his way with the
pathetic, inexperienced Falcon corners. But he’s tough to count on
in a limited role coming off a layoff with Kevin Curtis
healthy and DeSean Jackson improving each game.
Atlanta Defense – John Abraham has seven sacks, but
otherwise the Falcons don’t get much pressure and that puts undue
pressure on their beleaguered secondary. Donovan McNabb is
lethal when given time to work with, so he will likely shred them,
especially with all the different options back from injury. Yes,
he’ll be without RG Shaun Andrews for awhile, but Max
Jean-Gilles had done a serviceable job in his place. Jerious
Norwood might break a kickoff return, but the Falcons are not
worth the risk here.
Reaches of the Week:
L.J. Smith (TE, Phi) – Smith posted 1/2/1 on 2 targets in Week Six before the bye, salvaging an otherwise lackluster day with a cheap red zone score. With the dearth of reliable tight end options in the world of fantasy, Smith’s certainly reachworthy this week against a flat-out bad Falcon pass defense that has permitted an average of 6/67/.3 to TEs the last four weeks. Atlanta’s safeties have proven to be inept against the pass, so Smith should break free for a seam-ripper or two in this beatable matchup. And he’s got a solid chance of striking paydirt because he’s a legit red zone weapon in this offense, and the Eagle passing game should generate some points.
History Report:
These teams faced each other most recently in Week Seventeen of 2006 at Philly. The Eagles won that one, 24-17.
Lineup Updates:
- Eagle RB Brian Westbrook (rib/ankle) practiced fully again Thursday and is expected to return to the starting lineup. Our Adam Caplan, who was at practice, notes Westbrook moved around normally.
- Eagle WR Reggie Brown (groin) stayed out of the team part of practice again Thursday and is considered questionable to play. Rookie WR DeSean Jackson will start regardless if Brown can play or not.
Special Teams Report:
We could sit here and tell you that the Eagles allowed kick returns of 24, 27, 31, and 24 yards in Week Six. But we would be remiss if we didn’t point out the fact the also allowed returns of just 20, 18, 18, 17, and 15 yards in the same game. Philadelphia does allow about 130 yards a game to opposing kick returners, and that bodes well for Jerious Norwood. He exploded for 178 kick return yards on just four returns back in Week Six. Norwood had returns of 39, 30, 24, and 85 yards against Chicago. The Eagles allow fewer than four yards a punt return and only punt about three times a game, so Adam Jennings and his 6.8 yard punt return average should have a quiet day. In their last ten kickoffs, Atlanta allowed returns of 45, 25, 25, and 33 yards. Quintin Demps is not the kind of player you want to give that kind of opportunity to. Demps has busted the century mark twice this year and averages over 24 yards a return on 21 attempts. Greg Lewis does handle short kickoffs and Atlanta has averaged at least two short kicks a game in their last two outings. DeSean Jackson is a special and dangerous punt returner, but Atlanta allows less than a yard per punt return this season.
Game Prediction:
Eagles 27
Falcons 13
Buffalo (5-1) at Miami (2-4)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, Miami Gardens, FL
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Possible thundershowers; Temperature: 81 degrees; Winds: 10 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 40%
Matchup Overview:
For all the good things they’ve accomplished this season, the Bills haven’t proven they are the dominant team in the AFC East – mainly because they’ve yet to play a division opponent. That will change this week with a trip to the last-place Dolphins. QB Trent Edwards looked very Kelly-esque last week, coming back from the concussion to complete 25-of-30 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown to Lee Evans, who made a helmet-sticking catch worthy of David Tyree. The difference is, Evans could do it again and again; he’s that good. Evans has eight TDs versus Miami, his most against any opponent. The Dolphins have lost back-to-back games to overshadow the continued strong play of QB Chad Pennington, who has a 68.6 completion percentage, fourth in the NFL. The Dolphins have lost seven of the last eight meetings in the series, including four straight.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Lee Evans (WR, Buf) – Evans, who has become Mr. Consistent in 2008 because he finally has a consistent QB, exploded for 8/89/1 on 8 targets in Week Seven, scoring on a gorgeous one-handed grab on a red zone fade route. With Edwards playing like a seasoned pro and taking some deep shots on a regular basis, Evans should have no problem being productive and registering a big play or two this week against an inept Dolphin pass defense that has given up an average of 9/168/1 to WRs the last four weeks. He can torch Miami’s dreadful corners with his downfield speed and vintage double moves, so expect success from Lee in this simple matchup. He seems to have Miami’s number, as he’s scored a total of 6 TDs in his last five meetings with the Dolphins. Simply put, he’s a must-play if you normally use him.
Trent Edwards (QB, Buf) – Edwards was once again poised, composed, and efficient in Week Seven, firing the rock for 261 yards and 1 TD. He’s been so accurate and sharp in Buffalo’s perfectly balanced offense that he could very well go off this week against a lousy Dolphin pass defense that has allowed an average of 256 yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. After all, Miami’s only legit pass rusher is LB Joey Porter, so it’s not like he’ll be under duress much. And there’s very little talent in Miami’s secondary, which closely resembles Swiss cheese. Throw in the fact that he put up 4 TDs last year in his lone meeting with the Dolphins and you can see why we’re touting him as a strong, savvy play. The main problem is if they get up big early they will get conservative, but that’s always the issue with Edwards. Knowing that, he’s still looking better than usual.
Ronnie Brown (RB, Mia) – Brown was shut down in Week Seven, gaining only 27 yards with 1/1 as a receiver. Teams have caught onto Miami’s gimmicky Wildcat formation, and they sorely need an offensive identity, so we expect them to get back to basics and pound the rock with Brown as their bell-cow in a conventional fashion behind their young, physical O-line. With that said, look for him to get a heaping helping of touches and do well this week against a Bill defense that has given up an average of 90 yards and 1.3 TDs as well as significant hay through the air to RBs the last four weeks. Buffalo’s solid front seven won’t let him run wild because they’re disciplined and they tackle well, but it’s a decent matchup in which he should be quite busy as the centerpiece of the offense, so rest assured he’ll do enough to help you. And look for him to reacquaint himself with the endzone.
Marshawn Lynch (RB, Buf) – Lynch plowed his way to 70 yards and 1 TD, with 4/22 as a receiver in Week Seven. He’s still not getting much push from the O-line, Fred Jackson continues to spell him and limit his upside, and he’s having a hard time breaking big runs, but he should be okay this week against a so-so Dolphin run defense that has permitted an average of 98 yards and .3 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. After all, Buffalo’s balanced offense demands a steadfast commitment to the running game, and Lynch seemingly scores each week. We’re just hesitant to say he’s looking better than usual, given his lack of explosiveness and his O-line’s inability to control the line of scrimmage. Still, Lynch accumulated a total of 168 yards and 1 TD in two meetings with Miami last season, so he knows what it takes to sustain runs against them. Perhaps more important than anything else, DT Jason Ferguson is very questionable to play, and if he’s out, Beast Mode could be in effect.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Greg Camarillo (WR, Mia) – Camarillo posted 6/74 on 12 targets in Week Seven, as he continues to be Miami’s best receiver and Pennington’s go-to guy. With Buffalo’s top corner still banged up and their rookie corner getting burned left and right, Camarillo figures to catch several balls and be serviceable this week. The Bill pass defense has given up an average of 14/139/1.3 to WRs the last four weeks, so it’s not as if they’re a shutdown unit. As a result, PPR-leaguers can feel good about using Camarillo in this favorable matchup. Just keep in mind there’s no verticality at all to Miami’s passing game, which means Camarillo’s yardage will continue to leave a lot to be desired.
Chad Pennington (QB, Mia) – Pennington once again found a way to be solid for fantasy purposes in Week Seven, as he passed for 295 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT. Buffalo’s pass rush is far from dangerous, and their banged up secondary has given up an average of 231 yards and 1.3 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, so we like Pennington’s potential to put up a well-rounded bottom line this week. But he’s nothing more than a mediocre play because he can’t stretch the field. Also, the Dolphins are bound to lean heavily on their power running game, which should keep Pennington from going off. He’s never done that well against the Bills in the past either.
Buffalo Defense – Steady Dolphin QB Chad Pennington showed a chink in the football-protecting armor last week, throwing a rare interception returned for a Baltimore D, which is a good sign for Buffalo’s aggressive defense. The Bills were banged up last week against San Diego, with DE Aaron Schobel and CB Terrence McGee both out, but still played decently with two sacks, an interception and forced fumble. Schobel and McGee could be out again, which doesn’t help. Pennington is not a great matchup, but you could do worse.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Miami Defense – They did very little last week against rookie QB Joe Flacco, and they let RB Willis McGahee carve them up for 100 yards. OLB Joey Porter continued his rejuvenation with two more sacks, giving him 8.5 on the season, but they lost DT Jason Ferguson to a rib injury. Bill QB Trent Edwards is playing very well; he was not sacked last week against San Diego and was barely rushed as the offensive line held up in pass protection, even with starting C Melvin Fowler inactive and RG Brad Butler out most of the second half. Miami’s much-maligned special teams improved dramatically with the insertion of Ted Ginn Jr. as the kickoff returner, and he’s always a threat to break one. Other than that possibility, there’s no great argument to make for the Dolphins in this matchup.
Too Risky To Play:
Anthony
Fasano (TE, Mia) – Fasano mustered just 2/25 on 3 targets in Week Seven, as
David Martin cut into his activity. He’s not really
commanding the ball at this point, and there’s no verticality to
Miami’s passing game, so don’t expect much more than modest
production from Fasano this week against a disciplined Bill defense
that has given up an average of just 3/37/0 to TEs the last four
weeks. Buffalo can be thrown on, no question about it, but they’ve
gotten solid play from their linebackers, so it’s not a great
matchup. Plus, we suspect Miami will get back to basics and pound
the rock repeatedly in this one. With that said, Fasano’s probably
not headed for a big day unless he scores a cheap red zone TD.
Josh Reed (WR, Buf) – Reed posted a lackluster 3/32 on 4 targets in Week Seven. Even though he’s just a possession guy with very little explosiveness to his game, Reed’s a reasonable play this week against a horrendous Dolphin pass defense that has allowed an average of 9/168/1 to WRs the last four weeks. That’s because the Miami secondary is a joke, and they have no talented playmakers. With Edwards likely to have an easy time picking apart the Dolphins, Reed can get you 4-5 catches. But he was pretty quiet against Miami last year, and the presence of Roscoe Parrish, who is a key player for them now because he gives them some speed, cuts into Reed’s potential.
Ricky Williams (RB, Mia) – Williams rushed for only 16 yards in Week Seven, as Miami’s running game was completely neutralized. Teams have figured out how to defend the Wildcat formation, and all the upside in the Dolphin backfield lies with Ronnie Brown, so don’t bother tangling with Williams this week against a respectable Bill run defense that has given up an average of 90 yards and 1.3 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. It’s a tougher matchup and we suspect the Dolphins are going to start riding Ronnie and using a more conventional power running attack, so Williams can’t be trusted.
Ted Ginn
(WR, Mia) – Ginn, who
hasn’t been playing fast or stretching the field much, posted 4/48
on 7 targets in Week Seven. Although Buffalo’s banged up secondary
is vulnerable and has given up an average of 14/139/1.3 to WRs the
last four weeks, Ginn’s a major liability to your fantasy squad.
That’s because Pennington is completely incapable of hooking up with
him in the vertical passing game. Ginn did very little against the
Bills last year, and Camarillo’s the true go-to wideout in Miami’s
passing game. As a result, you can’t realistically expect much from
him, even with the nice matchup.
Reaches of the Week:
Robert Royal (TE, Buf) – Royal awoke from his lengthy slumber in Week Seven, posting 4/53 on 6 targets. Edwards has been spreading the ball around with pinpoint accuracy, and the lame Dolphin pass defense doesn’t present much of a challenge to the Bill air attack, so feel free to reach on Royal this week. Even though Miami has permitted an average of just 2/37/0 to TEs the last four weeks, their pass defense as a whole is woefully inadequate. And Royal scored 2 TDs against them last year. Give him a whirl if bye-week issues have left you with minimal options at the tight end spot, as we foresee Edwards assaulting the Dolphins.
History Report:
Last season, these AFC East opponents played in Week Ten at Miami and Week Fourteen at Buffalo, with the Bills winning both games, 13-10 and 38-17.
Lineup Updates:
None of note.
Special Teams Report:
Terrence McGee is still banged up, and rookie Leodis McKelvin will continue to handle kickoffs with help from Fred Jackson. While Miami may kick off just three or four times this week, they do allow 26 yards per kick return. Only two of their last 18 kickoffs were returned for less than 22 yards and some of the bigger returns against them went for 50, 30, 81, 31, 50, 31, and 30 yards. Roscoe Parrish returned to action last week and returned a punt for 5 yards. He faces a Dolphin punt coverage unit that allows over 8 yards a return and over 40 yards a game to opposing punt returners. Ted Ginn, Jr. handled kick returns in Week Seven but could only average 18.6 yards a return. Those numbers could land Davone Bess back into the dual-return role, as he averages 22.2 yards a return. Even if one of the two handles all the kick returns this week, they will likely tally 85 yards or fewer, as 12% of Rian Lindell’s kickoffs end in touchbacks. Patrick Cobbs handles some short kicks, and Buffalo tends to short kick once or twice a game.
Game Prediction:
Bills 24 Dolphins
17
St. Louis (2-4) at New England (4-2)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, Foxboro, MA
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Partly cloudy/windy; Temperature: 59 degrees; Winds: 23 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Matchup Overview:
Despite losing key players left and right to injuries, the Patriots are still capable of a dominating performance that evokes memories of last year and scenes of smug confidence on the sideline (Yeah, we’re talking to you, Randy Moss). The Rams seem rejuvenated by a coaching change, but a major injury to a star player might be too much to overcome. New England busted out against Denver last week as Matt Cassel was effective and efficient (when he had the time or the sense to get rid of the ball), and the defense forced five turnovers. RB Sammy Morris and veteran safety Rodney Harrison were the latest injury casualties. The Rams look for their third consecutive upset under new coach Jim Haslett, but RB Steven Jackson, who ran for a season-high 160 yards and three TDs last week against Dallas, is iffy with a quad strain. QB Marc Bulger, levitated back to the starting position by Haslett, has responded with back-to-back mistake-free games. These teams have split 10 all-time meetings, including New England's 20-17 Super Bowl win after the 2001 season.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Randy Moss (WR, NE) – Moss found his mojo in Week Seven, registering 5/69/2 on 6 targets. While he’s not stretching the field much at all with the Pats playing a conservative ball-control style of offense, Moss is still a great play this week against a beatable Ram secondary that has given up an average of 7/122/.3 to WRs the last four weeks. Sure, that’s not a lot of production, but the Rams have been getting run all over, which skews those numbers. St. Louis remains highly susceptible to the pass, as their defense isn’t all that great. Bottom line, Moss will have a major size/speed advantage on the sub-par Ram corners, which means he should have his way here. And a big play seems within his grasp.
Torry Holt (WR, Stl) – Holt continued his quiet 2008 campaign, with 3/51 on 5 targets in Week Seven. It’s good news for his fantasy value that the field-stretching Avery is taking some pressure off him, but the Rams clearly want to pound the rock and throw it only when completely necessary. With that said, Holt probably won’t catch a ton of balls this week against a reeling, banged-up Patriot secondary that has given up an average 11/157/1.3 to WRs the last four weeks. But it’s certainly a good enough matchup to use him in, as New England is struggling immensely to stop the pass. And since the Patriot secondary is slow, he can make a big play and amass some YAC. With Jackson issue, we can say he’s looking better than usual even with Bulger continuing to be somewhat erratic and shaky in the pocket.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk (RBs, NE) – Sammy Morris rushed for 138 yards and 1 TD in the first half alone in Week Seven, but he’s not expected to play this week due to a knee injury. In that same game, BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 65 yards and 1 TD while Kevin Faulk gained 50 yards with 3/6 as a receiver. LaMont Jordan is iffy to play as well and may not go, so those two guys should carry the load. They’ve got a great matchup against a pathetic, soft Ram run defense that has permitted an average of 126 yards and 1.3 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. And the Pats clearly want to play a ball-control style of offense that emphasizes the run, so fantasy-friendly production should be forthcoming from this backfield. Green-Ellis may get more carries, but Faulk should still get lots of touches (third downs, passing situations, change of pace).
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Wes Welker (WR, NE) – Welker posted 6/63/1 on 6 targets in Week Seven, finding the endzone for the first time this year. He’s established himself as a reliable go-to guy in the underneath passing game with Cassel at the helm, and the Pats love to use him as essentially an extension of the running game, so he should be his usual productive self this week against a lame Ram pass defense that has given up an average of 7/122/.3 to WRs the last four weeks. Those numbers seem small, but that’s only because teams haven’t had to throw much on St. Louis since their run defense stinks. Cassel shouldn’t have any issues finding Welker on bubble screens, slants, and quick-hitters in this favorable matchup, so expect a handful of catches from this sure-handed talent. A TD may be asking a lot, however, as the Pats aren’t exactly scoring at will without Brady.
Matt
Cassel (QB, NE) – Cassel passed for 185 yards and 3 TDs in Week Seven. He
doesn’t process info quickly, he rarely takes shots downfield, and
he continues to exhibit the bad habit of holding the ball too long.
But given his easy matchup against a weak Ram pass defense that has
allowed an average of 213 yards and .7 TDs to QBs the last four
weeks, we could understand reaching on him. St. Louis’ pass rush
isn’t very dangerous, and their corners aren’t world-beaters, so
Cassel should be solid enough to help you. Just keep in mind the
Pats won’t ask him to throw it all over the field, as they seem
hell-bent on playing it safe and emphasizing the run.
Marc Bulger (QB, Stl) – Bulger passed for 173 yards and 1 TD in Week Seven, as the Rams leaned heavily on the run and asked him to manage the game. He still doesn’t look particularly sharp, he’s still dealing with poor pass protection, and he’s going to hand it off repeatedly with the Rams focusing on running the rock, so Bulger’s essentially a so-so play this week. New England’s slow, banged up secondary is susceptible to big plays and looking like a mess, and they’ve allowed an average of 207 yards and 2.3 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, which indicates Bulger can connect on some shots downfield and strike for a score. But he may face substantial pressure from New England’s front seven, and it’s doubtful he’ll throw it enough to go off. Thus, he’s not jumping off the page as a play-to-win pick, although he’s clearly hitting it off with Avery, who’s an explosive speedster.
St. Louis Defense – The Rams took advantage of a rusty and immobile Brad Johnson last week, totaling three sacks, three interceptions (two by safety Oshiomogho Atogwe) and a forced fumble while holding the Cowboys to 14 points. They are playing better under defensive-minded coach Jim Haslett, and you can expect them to get to Patriot QB Matt Cassel. Why not? Everybody else has. But the Patriots are getting healthier on the offensive line, they’ll probably run the ball a lot, and the Rams are nothing more than a reach play here, and a serious reach at that.
New England Defense – They’re still capable of a hugely
productive game, as they proved last week against Denver (three
sacks, two interceptions and three fumbles). Safety Brandon
Meriweather has three interceptions in his last five games and
will have to keep it up now with the season-ending injury to
Rodney Harrison. The pass rush and secondary are still shaky –
one great game can’t disguise the fact – but they could keep it
going here against QB Marc Bulger, who still takes too many
sacks (5 last week) behind a porous offensive line (LT Orlando
Pace is hurt). The Patriots have been very good in the return
game, and Wes Welker had a 44-yard punt return last week, so
the Rams could be vulnerable in that department.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Steven Jackson (RB, Stl) – Jackson rumbled for 160 yards and 3 TDs with 2/16 as a receiver in Week Seven, scoring both in the red zone and on a long scamper. The Rams have totally committed to running the ball repeatedly and feeding S-Jax because that’s the only way they can compete. A healthy Jackson would likely get massive touches and grind out a wholesome bottom line this week against a Patriot defense that has given up an average of 77 yards and 0 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. But he’s not healthy, and it’s not a cake matchup or one in which you should look for multiple TDs again, as the Patriot front seven is an active, physical, and disciplined unit. But as long as he plays and his quad holds up for four quarters, it’s likely he’ll wear them down, gash them here and there for some nice gains, and make some hay in the short passing game. After seeing New England get run on a week ago, you have to like this beast’s potential as the centerpiece of an offense that’s showing signs of life – but he does have to be cleared to play, and there is some definite risk here since he’s not 100%. Based on his injury situation and so-so matchup, he’s looking worse than usual, no doubt.
Too Risky To Play:
None of note
Reaches of the Week:
Donnie Avery (WR, Stl) – Avery was sensational in Week Seven, posting 5/65/1 on 7 targets and just missing a second long TD on a bad overthrow by Bulger. He’s an explosive, precise route-runner, and he’s been fully incorporated into the Ram passing game, so we love him as a reach play this week. New England’s secondary is slow, hurting, and reeling, and they’ve given up a whopping average of 11/157/1.3 to WRs the last four weeks. As a result, it wouldn’t be shocking for this rook to run by them for another big play and use his speed to find holes in their lackluster coverage. You have to worry that the Rams won’t throw it much, since they’re all about pounding the rock on the ground right now, but Jackson is banged up. And the road matchup could rattle the rookie a bit. But ultimately, he should be in a position to provide you with a little juice if you need him. And keep in mind now S Rodney Harrison back there helps him – and corner Deltha O’Neil has been burned recently.
Ben Watson (TE, NE) – Watson mustered 3/40 on 4 targets in Week Seven. He continues to get more involved each game, he’s looked pretty fresh and dynamic, and he’s definitely meshing with Cassel, so feel free to reach on Watson this week. After all, he’s got a non-threatening matchup against a porous Ram pass defense that has given up an average of 5/65/.3 to TEs the last four weeks. Look for a seam-ripper or two and some red zone activity from Watson, who should be able to exploit St. Louis’ soft coverage.
History Report:
Week Nine of 2004 at St. Louis was the last time these teams met. The Patriots slaughtered the Rams, 40-22.
Lineup Updates:
- Patriot starting RB Sammy Morris (sprained knee) missed practice again Thursday and is not expected to play. Backup RB LaMont Jordan (calf) re-injured his calf in Wednesday’s practice and is considered very questionable to play. If Jordan can’t play, RBs Kevin Faulk and BenJarvus Green-Ellis would split playing time. Green-Ellis is more powerful than Faulk so if they decide to come out running more this game, he could get more than half of the carries.
- Ram RB Steven Jackson (thigh) was held out again of Thursday’s practice. Backup RB Antonio Pittman (calf) practiced again Thursday and would start if Jackson can’t play. Backup Travis Minor would likely get some touches as well.
- Ram WR Donnie Avery continues to start for Drew Bennett, and should once Bennett returns.
Special Teams Report:
Over a third of New England’s kickoffs end in touchbacks, and they allow just 14 yards a kick return on average. In 32 kickoffs this year, the Patriots have allowed a return of 25 yards or more just four times, with two of them going for 26 yards. They also allow just 15 yards a game on punt returns, so Dante Hall will earn every return yard he gets this week. Rookie Matthew Slater has averaged 23.4 yards a return on his last five kick returns. Ellis Hobbs is averaging 28.4 yards a kick return, and while the team might still be tempted to use him on some kick returns, the loss of Rodney Harrison on defense makes the possible loss of Hobbs to injury on special teams far too great a risk. No matter who handles kickoffs, the Rams will be lucky to offer up three or four chances this week. Kevin Faulk normally handles punt returns, but Sammy Morris has an unknown knee injury, and Faulk might be heavily involved on offense. So Wes Welker will likely handle punt returns against a coverage unit that allows nearly 10 yards a return.
Game Prediction:
Patriots 20
Rams 14
Arizona (4-2) at Carolina (5-2)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, Charlotte, NC
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Sunny; Temperature: 67 degrees; Winds: 5 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Matchup Overview:
The Cardinal is a migratory bird that gets seriously disoriented when it strays from the desert, so they could be grounded here on the unforgiving rock of the Carolina coastline. Arizona is undefeated at home but has been outscored 80-52 in its last two road games, and the Panthers have outscored opponents 108-33 in winning all four home games. The defense led by a rejuvenated Julius Peppers is third in the NFL in scoring (14.9 points per game) and third in total defense (286.3 yards per game), and coming off a smothering effort against the high-powered Saints. The Panthers can run it with power or hit the deep pass, in contrast to the mostly air-borne Cardinals, who would get a lift from the return of WR Anquan Boldin from that skull-rattling hit he took a few weeks ago. QB Kurt Warner is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,708) and tied for fifth in touchdowns (12).
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Steve Smith (WR, Car) – Smith registered 6/122/1 on 8 targets in Week Seven, scoring on a beautiful big-play TD reception. He can do some serious damage this week against an atrocious Cardinal secondary that has given up an average of 10/168/2.7 to WRs the last four weeks because they’ve got a rookie corner who can be abused, and they blow coverage on the back end on a regular basis. With the Panthers taking deep shots each game off play action, it seems inevitable that Smith will be potent in this simple matchup. He has absolutely murdered this defense in the past, and he hung a gaudy 10/136/1 on them last season. What more do you need to hear? Get this stud in your lineup, as he should pick up yardage in chunks and make an endzone appearance.
Jake Delhomme (QB, Car) – Delhomme got great protection from his stellar O-line and passed for 195 yards and 2 TDs in Week Seven. We envision his having an easy time striking downfield this week against a horrible Cardinal secondary that has given up an average of 282 yards and 3.3 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, so he’s a must-play. He can pick on Arizona’s shaky rookie corner, exploit their lousy safeties for long gainers, and fire a couple of TD passes in this cake matchup, as the Cards don’t present much of a challenge and often blow coverage. The Cards have a decent pass rush, so you can’t rule out a mistake or two. But overall, Delhomme could have his best game of the season in this spot. After all, he’s been connecting with his boy Steve Smith in the vertical passing game, and the Panthers might have some difficulty running the ball.
Muhsin Muhammad (WR, Car) – Muhammad managed just 3/43 on 6 targets in Week Seven, as Steve Smith and the running game led the way. Delhomme often looks his way in the red zone, and the Panthers love to attack the intermediate and deep area of the field off play action, so Muhsin could surprise with high-end production this week against an inept, vulnerable Cardinal pass defense that has permitted an average of 10/168/2.7 to WRs the last four weeks. Arizona’s rookie corner Cromartie is a major liability in coverage and their safeties can be torched downfield. With that said, Muhammad really couldn’t ask for an easier matchup. If ever there were a game to use him with confidence in, this would have to be it, as the Card secondary is notorious for allowing big plays and having breakdowns.
Jonathan Stewart (RB, Car) – Stewart ran with power and relentlessness in rushing for 68 yards and 1 TD with 1/3 as a receiver in Week Seven. The timeshare with Williams will once again keep him from being truly potent, but Stewart’s certainly a viable play this week against a middle-of-the-road Arizona run defense that has given up an average of 66 yards and 0 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. The Cardinals use an effective D-line rotation to prevent big runs between the tackles, but they aren’t a shutdown unit by any means. With that said, look for Stewart to get his usual carries and red zone opportunities and do okay. After all, he’s tough to bring down on first contact, and the Panthers are committed to pounding the rock plenty. With the Panther offense poised to move the ball at will in this contest, a TD from Stewart should be in the cards, which is why we have him here.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, Ari) – Fitzy was once again deadly in Week Six before the bye, with 5/79/1 on 6 targets. He’s a beast you never sit because he can use his size and physicality to outmuscle any corner or safety in the league for the ball, but no way is he jumping off the page as a shoe-in for massive production this week against a hard-nosed, disciplined Panther pass defense that has given up an average of just 8/91/0 to WRs the last four weeks. That’s because the Panther secondary has basically been a shutdown unit from the get-go this season. Looking on the bright side, he has a track record of putting up big numbers against the Panthers (6/97 last year), and Warner’s going to have to key the Cardinal offense with a heaping helping of throws when their running game sputters. Thus, he’s bound to do something of note in this tough matchup. Look for him to catch several short passes, at the very least.
DeAngelo Williams (RB, Car) – Williams gained 66 yards on the ground and scored on a 4-yard TD reception in Week Seven. He’ll share with Stewart as usual, but he’s still a reasonable play this week in Carolina’s run-heavy offense against a so-so Cardinal run defense that has given up an average of 66 yards and 0 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. Arizona’s respectable D-line rotation should keep him from running wild between the tackles, but they allow running backs to do major damage in the short passing game and they’re hardly impenetrable, so DeAngelo should find a way to muster serviceable production. Of course, Stewart, who has a nose for the goal-line, will continue to limit his upside. Still, when you consider that Williams rushed for 121 yards and 1 TD against this defense last season, it becomes apparent that he’s a worthwhile option in a game the Panthers should easily move the ball in.
Kurt Warner (QB, Ari) – Warner threw the pill for 236 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT in Week Six before the bye, continuing his productive 2008 campaign. We expect Warner to come out firing quite a bit on 3- and 5-step drops this week because the Cards won’t have an easy time running it, so he should throw it enough to be serviceable. But he’s got sizeable turnover potential in this terrible matchup against a talented Panther secondary that has allowed an average of only 171 yards and .2 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, as his weak O-line could leave him vulnerable to pressure from DE Julius Peppers and Company. And the Panther corners and safeties have been simply outstanding at limiting big plays and playing tight, physical coverage. With that said, you should expect a mixture of good and bad from Warner. Keep in mind he’ll really need Boldin in this one if he’s to prosper. The good news is he should get him, so the numbers should eventually be okay for Warner, even as it might be ugly.
Arizona Defense – This is a very inconsistent defense that plays much better at home. In their last game, against Dallas, they had three sacks, recovered a fumble, and scored two special teams TDs on a kickoff return by J.J. Arrington and the game-winning blocked punt in overtime. The Panthers are getting solid offensive line play, despite injuries, but QB Jake Delhomme is prone to laying an egg now and then, and he could throw a pick or two if the Cardinals get some pressure. The Panther special teams have been shaky, with several punts blocked this season, so look for the Cardinals to make a play in that department. But Arizona is too inconsistent to start on a weekly basis, and this is not a great matchup.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Anquan Boldin (WR, Ari) – Boldin was inactive in Week Six before the bye with a facial fracture and a concussion. He’s no lock to play this week, and he’s got a very tough matchup against a stingy, physical Panther secondary that has given up an average of just 8/91/0 to WRs the last four weeks. The Cards may have no choice but to throw a lot when the Panthers stuff their running game, but while he should play, we’re hearing Boldin could see a little as 50% of the snaps. So he’s a tad risky this week.
Edgerrin James (RB, Ari) – James was a huge disappointment in Week Six before the bye, rushing for a measly 29 yards. We don’t foresee Edge finding much room to run this week against a stout, smothering Panther run defense that has given up an average of 94 yards and .5 TDs to RBs the last four weeks, so it might be a savvy move to shy away from him. Carolina’s physical, active front seven should overmatch James’ suspect O-line and clog his running lanes, which means it’ll take some activity in the red zone and the screen game for him to be remotely productive. He rushed for 80 yards and 1 TD against this defense last season, but nobody has been running on Carolina in 2008. Temper expectations big-time because it’s a truly challenging matchup.
Too Risky To Play:
Steve Breaston (WR, Ari) – Breaston exploded for 8/102/1 on 9 targets in Week Six before the bye, flashing an uncanny ability to catch the ball over the middle. He’s been surprisingly sure-handed and effective, but Boldin could be back in the lineup this week, forcing him into the #3 role. In addition, he’s got a brutal matchup against a tough Panther pass defense that has permitted an average of only 8/91/0 to WRs the last four weeks. He should see the field, since Boldin may play only about half of the snaps, but keep in mind the Panthers may have the best nickel corner in the league in Richard Marshall. Faced with a tough matchup, and with his playing up in the air, Breaston would be a risky play.
Tim Hightower (RB, Ari) – Hightower contributed 20 yards with 4/29 as a receiver in Week Six before the bye in his change-of-pace role to Edge. We love his pass-catching talent and goal-line prowess, but it’s a bad week to deploy Hightower. He’s got a brutal matchup against a stingy, strong Panther run defense that has given up an average of 94 yards and .5 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. And no runners have found the going easy between the tackles against Carolina this year. As a result, it’s hard to count on him for wholesome yardage. This should be a game in which the Cards get pass-happy anyway.
Dante Rosario (TE, Car) – Rosario had no catches or targets in Week Seven, and he’s been very quiet since his Week One outburst. With the Panther offense channeling primarily through the RBs and WRs, you shouldn’t risk it with Rosario this week. Arizona’s lame pass defense can be thrown on, no question about it, and they’ve allowed an average of 3/44/.3 to TEs the last four weeks, which is decent production. But he’s simply not a big factor at this point, so you can do much better.
Reaches of the Week:
Carolina Defense – This is a very disruptive defense that smothered the Saints last week, pressuring the normally rattle-free Drew Brees into a sack, interception and many hurried throws. Julius Peppers has 4.5 sacks in his last four games versus Arizona. Cardinal QB Kurt Warner is dangerous when he gets time, and the pass protection has been mostly solid the last couple of weeks. But Warner is also prone to mistakes because he holds onto the ball too long waiting for plays to develop, and with Peppers coming at him from the blindside and their underrated secondary waiting to pounce on the mistakes, the Panthers could wreak some serious havoc.
History Report:
These teams played in Week Six of last season at Arizona, and the Panthers won easily 25-10.
Lineup Updates:
- Cardinal starting WR Anquan Boldin (head) did more in Thursday’s practice and is getting closer to playing. While he didn’t practice fully, he moved around well. A decision on his playing status could come after Friday’s practice. Backup WR Steve Breaston would start again if Boldin is inactive.
Special Teams Report:
With Steve Breaston playing a bigger role on offense because Anquan Boldin has been out, J.J. Arrington has taken over kick return duties. And he has done such a great job that he could remain the kick returner even when Boldin returns to action. Arrington exploded for a 93-yard touchdown on his only kick return back in Week Six. Without that return, Arrington has averaged nearly 23 yards a return and with the return added on, he averages over 40 yards a return. But this week he faces the toughest kickoff specialist currently in the NFL. Nearly 42% of Rhys Lloyd kickoffs end in a touchback, 74% of his kicks land in the endzone, and the Panthers allow just 15 yards per kick return. Jonathan Stewart is a little banged up, and the team doesn’t want to overload him with special team duties. So Mark Jones has become the dual-return option for the team. Jones averages 22.2 yards per kick return and 10.4 yards per punt return. Jones will have his work cut out for him this week, as the Cardinals allow just 13 yards a kick return and fewer than four yards per punt return.
Game Prediction:
Panthers 27
Cardinals 17
Oakland (2-4) at Baltimore (3-3)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, Baltimore, MD
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Sunny; Temperature: 61 degrees; Winds: 9 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 20%
Matchup Overview:
We’re going
old-school here, but this matchup conjures up images of The Snake
hitting the Ghost to the Post, Bert Jones going deep to Roger Carr,
and Al Davis leering down from above. Some things never change, and
the stifling Baltimore defense restored its pride with an
opportunistic performance against the Dolphins last week, as
Terrell Suggs rumbled 44 yards with an interception for a score.
Rookie QB Joe Flacco was the ultimate game manager,
completing over 73% of his passes for the second straight week, and
RB Willis McGahee finally woke up with a 100-yard game and
TD. The Raiders look to build on their 344-yard performance last
week against the Jets. QB JaMarcus Russell had two big
completions in overtime to set up Sebastian Janikowski's
franchise-record 57-yard field goal. TE Zach Miller is
getting most of the looks in the team’s more aggressive passing
attack under interim coach Tom Cable … and was that a Javon
Walker sighting?
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Willis
McGahee (RB, Bal) – McGahee excelled in Week Seven and basically earned the
bell-cow role again with 105 yards, 1 TD, and 2/47 as a receiver.
Because the Ravens are such a run-heavy team that uses plenty of run
formations, sidekicks Le’Ron McClain and Ray Rice will
see situational action going forward, which may frustrate McGahee
owners to an extent. But we expect McGahee to get the bulk of the
touches this week, so look for him to thrive against a joke Raider
run defense that has allowed an average of 140 yards and 1.3 TDs to
RBs the last four weeks. In addition, he could pad his stats with
some receptions in the screen game, as Oakland’s defense can be
highly susceptible to pass-catching backs. McGahee’s talented, nasty
O-line should dominate in this cake matchup, allowing him to find
some gaping running lanes. Thus, he’s a strong play with the
potential to go off.
Baltimore Defense – The interception return and TD by
Terrell Suggs was a saving grace for this once-dominant defense,
which again failed to get a consistent rush on the quarterback and
was burned for 359 yards by Miami last week. They are ailing in the
secondary, with CB Samari Rolle and S Dawan Landry
still hurt and Chris McAlister in the doghouse. However,
Raider QB JaMarcus Russell can be shaky, and he will
certainly need to throw the ball a lot when the running game bogs
down, so look for the Ravens to dominate at home and produce some
fantasy points.
Zach
Miller (TE, Oak) – Miller was rock-solid in Week Seven, corralling 4/57 on 6
targets. He’s got an uncanny rapport with JaMarcus and he’s a key
element of their passing game, particularly in the red zone, because
the Raider wideouts have trouble gaining separation. With that said,
we expect him to do moderate damage this week against a vulnerable
Raven pass defense that has allowed an average of 5/52/.2 to TEs the
last four weeks. Baltimore’s undermanned secondary is clearly the
weak link in their otherwise nasty defense, so Miller should have an
easy time catching a handful of passes. Keep in mind the Raiders
won’t run it well, which will force Russell to pass it quite a bit.
That bodes well for this emerging talent to be busy.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Derrick Mason (WR, Bal) – Mason posted 6/87/1 on 8 targets in Week Seven, making his first endzone appearance of the year. He’s clearly Flacco’s go-to guy and main man when the Ravens take a break from the run, so he’s likely to catch a fair number of balls this week in his possession role. But his matchup’s a tougher one, which makes him just a mediocre play and limits his upside. After all, Oakland’s pass defense has allowed an average of just 8/129/0 to WRs the last four weeks, and Mason’s going to be shadowed by stud CB Nnamdi Asomugha. To make matters worse, we suspect the Ravens will stick to their guns and pound the rock repeatedly in this game. As a result, you shouldn’t expect the world from this ageless wonder. Something in the neighborhood of the 5/46 he managed in his last meeting with Oakland is probably the best you can hope for. He’s also dealing with an illness this week.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Justin Fargas (RB, Oak) – Fargas gained 74 yards on massive carries, with 2/7 as a receiver in Week Seven, exhibiting a tough and powerful running style. It’s clear the Raiders want to feed him as much as possible and have him power his way downhill to take pressure off JaMarcus, so he’ll get ample totes this week. But his O-line is a sub-par unit that can’t open big running lanes for him, and he’s got a terrible road matchup against a suffocating, hard-nosed Raven run defense that has allowed an average of just 57 yards and .2 TDs to RBs the last four weeks, so he’s bound to have a hard time sustaining runs. Mix in the fact that he’ll lose receptions and outside running opportunities to McFadden, and you can see why he’s a lackluster play in this spot.
Darren McFadden (RB, Oak) – McFadden rushed for 39 yards with 3/50 as a receiver in Week Seven. While he broke free for a few nice gains in the screen game, McFadden yet again showed that he has minimal open-field running skills and ball-carrying instincts. He should be neutralized this week by Baltimore’s stingy, physical front seven, which has given up an average of only 57 yards and .2 TDs to RBs the last four weeks, so it’s hard to rely on him. There’s no question he’ll be involved, as the Raiders want to lean heavily on their running game to mask Russell’s deficiencies as a passer and hide their embarrassing wideouts. But it’s is a bad matchup in which this rookie should get pounded into submission by LB Ray Lewis and his mean-spirited cohorts. And his O-line stinks. Plus, he has to share with Fargas, which is a big buzz-kill. Forget it.
Oakland Defense – Despite last week’s solid outing against the Jets, when they picked off two Brett Favre passes and recorded three sacks, this defense is still mediocre at best for fantasy, as they don’t rush the passer consistently and give up far too much on the ground (Thomas Jones had a career day against them last week). Efficient Raven QB Joe Flacco won’t be asked to do much in the passing game. The Raiders have a chance to get to him once or twice, but you can do better.
Too Risky To Play:
Javon Walker (WR, Oak) – Walker finally showed a pulse in Week Seven with 5/75/1 on 9 targets and a red zone score. Still, he’s having a hard time gaining separation when he’s one-on-one with defenders, and the Raider passing game is the ultimate week-to-week unit, so we’re not fond of his potential this week against a Raven pass defense that has permitted an average of 9/143/1.2 to WRs the last four weeks. Baltimore’s secondary is still banged up, and they are from a shutdown group because they can be gashed for the big play, which gives Walker a glimmer of hope to hit for a long gainer. But we foresee Russell having his hands full with their all-out blitzes and struggling to get in a groove against this pressure-packed D, which makes Walker a shakier play, for sure. After all, one good game doesn’t mean you should all of a sudden trust him again.
JaMarcus Russell (QB, Oak) – Russell did an admirable job of distributing the ball in Week Seven, as he passed for 203 yards with 1 TD. While he knew where to throw the rock, his accuracy was so-so, and he’s still working with a lackluster group of wideouts. As a result, he’s a tad too risky for our tastes in this bad road matchup against a physical, aggressive Raven defense that has allowed an average of 230 yards and 1.5 TDs to QBs the last four weeks. He’s not going to get into a rhythm when the Ravens blitz him from all angles and terrorize his underachieving O-line, so even though he should throw it a ton when his running game is nullified and make a couple of big plays on Baltimore’s shaky back end, you can’t bank on him for a fantasy-friendly bottom line.
Chaz Schilens (WR, Oak) – Schilens started over Ronald Curry in Week Seven, but he managed a pedestrian 2/10 on 3 targets. He’s a sizeable player and a big target for Russell, but no way should you risk it with him against a solid Raven defense that has permitted an average of 9/143/1.2 to WRs the last four weeks. We don’t foresee Russell having much success against Baltimore’s relentless pass rush, so it goes without saying that Schilens could come up small. He could make a big play downfield because the Raven pass defense is susceptible on the back end, but there’s really not much to like about the Raider passing game at this point.
Mark Clayton (WR, Bal) – Clayton, who’s been nearly invisible this season, posted 1/13 on 2 targets in Week Seven. With the Ravens leaning heavily on their ground game and Flacco keying in on Mason when he does air it out, there’s no reason to tangle with Clayton this week. He’s got a tricky matchup against a Raider pass defense that has given up an average of just 8/129/0 to WRs the last four weeks, he had just 1/30 in his last meeting with the Raiders, and the Ravens should be able to control this game on the ground. Look elsewhere for your flex needs.
Reaches of the Week:
Joe Flacco (QB, Bal) – Flacco was impressive in Week Seven, throwing for 232 yards with 1 TD. He was not only poised and composed, but he also did a better job of reading coverage. Although the Ravens probably won’t ask Flacco to throw much this week because their ground game should click on all cylinders, he’s a deep reach who could eek out solid yardage and a score. After all, Oakland’s pass defense has allowed an average of 232 yards and 1.3 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, and their safeties can be torched for big plays. Plus, his O-line should be able to handle Oakland’s feeble pass rush. Give him a whirl if desperation is setting in, as their effective running game should open up some deep looks in the passing game, but don’t expect many pass attempts.
Todd Heap (TE, Bal) – Heap registered a lackluster 3/29 on 5 targets in Week Seven, but Flacco missed him wide open in the endzone, so he should have been much more potent. The Ravens are far from a pass-happy team, but you could reach on worse tight ends than Heap this week. He’s got a favorable matchup against a beatable Raider pass defense that has given up a whopping average of 6/67/.7 to TEs the last four weeks, and Oakland’s safeties aren’t great cover guys, which indicates Heap could have a semi-breakout game. In addition, he’s struck paydirt in each of his last two meetings with the Raiders, so he knows what it takes to get open in the endzone against this defense. Try him on for size if (and only if) you’re searching for answers at TE.
History Report:
These teams faced each other in Week Two of 2006 at Oakland, and the Ravens battered the Raiders, 28-6.
Lineup Updates:
- Raider WR Chaz Schilens started over veteran Ronald Curry, who was demoted last week. Schilens should start again this week.
Special Teams Report:
Matt Stover is a streaky kickoff specialist. He’ll go on a stretch where five or six kicks are returned for big yardage and then four or five kicks where returns go for fewer than 20 yards. His last five kicks were returned for 11, 27, 9, 14, and 12 yards. If you believe in trends, he is due to allow big returns this week, and Johnnie Lee Higgins is not someone you should allow running run to. Higgins has a 25.2-yard kick return average and the Ravens best kick away from him. The Ravens allow 4.4 yards per punt return and punt five times a game on average. Higgins averages 10.3 yards per punt return. If Baltimore is not careful this week, Higgins will torch them. Yamon Figurs hasn’t practiced yet this week. In his absence, the team turned to rookie Ray Rice to handle kickoffs in Week Seven. He performed exceptionally well, averaging 25.3 yards on four kick returns and finishing the day with 101 kick return yards. Don’t expect a duplicate performance this week, as Oakland allows just 15 yards a return and 37% of Sebastian Janikowski kickoffs end in touchbacks and 67% of them land in the endzone. It’s even harder to mount much of a return when the Raiders offer up just three or four kicks. Jim Leonhard will handle punt returns, but Shane Lechler is a tough punter, with 34% of his punts not being returnable.
Game Prediction:
Ravens 17
Raiders 10
Washington (5-2) at Detroit (0-6)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, Detroit, MI
Game-time Weather Report: Inside Ford Field
Matchup Overview:
The Redskins got the trap game out of their system two weeks ago in a home loss to St. Louis, so they’re not likely to overlook the winless and rudder-less Lions. Washington floundered through a scoreless first half last week before the defense pointed the way to a victory over Cleveland. QB Jason Campbell has thrown a franchise-record 224 passes without an interception, and RB Clinton Portis has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of his last four games, although he is beginning to show some signs of wear and tear (it would help if coach Jim Zorn would try a downfield pass once in awhile). The Lions have shown signs of life the last two games, with both defeats coming down to the final possession. Second-year WR Calvin Johnson had a 96-yard TD catch-and-run but only two receptions against Houston last week. Detroit has been outscored 54-0 in the first quarter this season.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Clinton Portis (RB, Was) – Portis ran wild in Week Seven, rushing for 175 yards and 1 TD with 1/8 as a receiver. He’s a bit beat up with soreness all over his body from running like a crazed maniac in 2008. But given that he has rushed for at least 120 yards on the ground in four straight games and has been getting great blocking up front from his big uglies, you can rest assured he’ll excel this week. The Lion run defense has allowed an average of 120 yards and 1 TD to RBs the last four weeks, and they give up big gains like they’re giving out candy. In other words, it’s a dream matchup for this stud. Ignore the fact that he rushed for only 72 yards with 0 TDs against the Lions last season because he’s the hottest runner in all of fantasy, and the Redskins feed him each week.
Santana Moss (WR, Was) – Moss bounced back from a few quiet games with 4/75/1 on 7 targets in Week Seven, showing that he remains a force to be reckoned with. While we can’t guarantee the Redskins will have to do much throwing this week in what should be a blowout, we love Moss’ potential to make a few big plays, strike paydirt, and collect wholesome YAC against an atrocious Lion pass defense that has given up an average of 13/200/.7 to WRs the last four weeks. Detroit’s banged up at the safety position, which bodes well for Moss to get behind their defense for a long gainer. And the terrible Lion corners have been leaving receivers wide open for the most part in 2008, so there’s nothing scary at all about Moss’ matchup.
Chris
Cooley (TE, Was) – Cooley came up a bit small in Week Seven, with 4/32 on 7
targets. But there’s reason to believe he could rebound with a gaudy
bottom line this week against a lousy Lion pass defense that has
given up an average of 5/75/.7 to TEs the last four weeks. That’s
because the Lions are hurting at the safety position and generally
incapable of stopping the pass, which should allow Cooley to do some
damage over the middle and down the seam. While the run-heavy
Redskins may not be required to throw much, this cake matchup sets
up nicely for Cooley to find the endzone, as he scored a TD against
Detroit last season. And receivers tend to run free in Detroit’s
hapless secondary after the catch, so good yardage shouldn’t be hard
for Cooley to come by either. Can you say plug-and-play?
Jason Campbell (QB, Was) – Campbell battled through a tweaked groin and passed for 164 yards and 1 TD in Week Seven, missing a lot of throws he should have made. Campbell continues to avoid miscues, he’s got weapons at his disposal, and the highly conservative Redskins could elect to take the shackles off him and ask him to attack Detroit’s woeful secondary this week to get off to a fast start, so we view him as a viable play. Detroit’s inept pass defense has allowed an average of 299 yards and 1.7 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, their starting safety is hurt, and they can’t generate much of a pass rush or cover to save their lives. Thus, as long as he throws it a fair amount, healthy digits should be forthcoming in this cake matchup. Keep in mind he shredded this defense for 248 yards and 2 TDs last year, and they’re actually worse now. Obviously, he’s not throwing it much, which is a concern. But based purely on the matchup, he’s definitely LBTU.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Calvin Johnson (WR, Det) – Johnson registered 2/154/1 on 4 targets in Week Seven, catching a long Hail Mary pass and hauling in a 96-yard TD. For some odd reason, he’s not being used much at all in the short and intermediate passing game, so he’s going to have to get lucky again downfield if he’s going to post solid numbers this week against a stingy Redskin pass defense that has given up an average of only 10/124/.8 to WRs the last four weeks. Even with Washington’s secondary being a little banged up, it’s not a matchup that shapes up well for Calvin to do anything other than moderate damage. In fact, it’s a bad matchup, as the Redskin corners have been playing out of their minds and with physicality. And you can’t help but cringe when you see that Johnson was held to a paltry 1/3 by Washington last year. His immense talent makes him a worthwhile play, of course, but it could be a struggle given the shakiness of Orlovsky.
Kevin Smith (RB, Det) – Smith rushed for 61 yards and 1 TD with 1/7 as a receiver in Week Seven, busting a couple of big runs and showing good burst through the hole. He’s extremely hard to rely on because the Lions inexplicably use the washed up Rudi Johnson at times and often get blown out and abandon the run. But this rook seems to find a way to do something each game, whether it’s a big run or a short goal-line plunge, so he’s certainly useable this week. Still, he more than likely will be limited to modest numbers because he’s got a bad matchup against a tough Redskin defense that has allowed an average of just 60 yards and .2 TDs to RBs the last four weeks and that has been difficult to penetrate. Thus, he’s a mediocre play and a borderline reach.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Shaun McDonald (WR, Det) – McDonald failed to catch any of his 6 targets in Week Seven, but it hardly was his fault since he was wide open several times and Orlovsky just flat-out missed him. He’s not going to have an easy time finding openings against Washington’s disciplined, suffocating secondary this week, so he’s a weak play. The Redskins have allowed an average of just 10/124/.8 to WRs the last four weeks, and their corners have been shutting down wideouts with physical, tight coverage. Throw in the fact that Orlovsky could hold him back again, and you can see why we’re not fond of McDonald’s potential. Keep in mind he was basically a non-factor against the Redskins last season.
Mike Furrey (WR, Det) – Furrey stepped up and posted 6/89 on 8 targets in Week Seven. With the erratic Orlovsky at the helm, you can’t expect much production from Furrey this week against a stingy Redskin pass defense that has given up an average of only 10/124/.8 to WRs the last four weeks. After all, Washington’s corners have been incredible in coverage this year, and Furrey should have major problems finding windows to exploit. Shy away from him in this brutal matchup.
Too Risky To Play:
Dan Orlovsky (QB, Det) – Orlovsky shockingly turned out to be decent for fantasy in Week Seven, with 265 yards and 1 TD. But don’t let his bottom line fool you. He didn’t play well, he was erratic with his accuracy, he took forever to release the ball, and his numbers were inflated by two big plays to Calvin Johnson. With the way Washington’s rock-solid secondary has been using deceptive coverage to confuse quarterbacks, you’d be nuts to risk it with Orlovsky this week. After all, he won’t have much success firing downfield, as the Redskin pass defense has given up an average of just 192 yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. One big play might be within his reach, given that Washington’s anemic pass rush could afford him plenty of time in the pocket. But you’re playing with fire if you use this low-end player in what is clearly an unfriendly matchup.
Rudi Johnson (RB, Det) – Rudi rushed for 8 yards in Week Seven, basically embarrassing himself with uninspired, plodding running. He’s washed up, he looks like he’s running in cement, and he’s the master of the 2-yard gain, so don’t bother tangling with him this week. He’s in a timeshare where Kevin Smith is the more explosive entity, and he’s got a tough matchup against a stout Redskin run defense that has permitted an average of just 60 yards and .2 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. Plus, the Lions are consistently playing from behind, which isn’t allowing their running game to do much of anything. With that said, he doesn’t stand a chance of helping you.
Detroit Defense – Redskin QB Jason Campbell gets picked off once every 250 throws or so, apparently, and his next throw will be #225 without an interception, so you can’t expect the Lions to be the team that ends that streak. They did sack Matt Schaub three times last week, giving them eight in the last two games, but Campbell is getting great protection from his rebuilt offensive line, and the Redskins should be able to pound the ball with Clinton Portis. Unless you’re a glutton for punishment you’ll want to find a better option. Maybe even a bye-week team.
Reaches of the Week:
Washington Defense – The Redskins have some problems in their secondary, with CB Shawn Springs out again with a calf injury, but against the Lions and jittery QB Dan Orlovsky, it shouldn’t matter. They pressured Derek Anderson into a very poor performance last week and should do the same against Orlovsky, who hasn’t shown he can handle the pressure or make good decisions with the ball. The Redskins are a good sleeper pick with this matchup, a likely blowout.
Antwaan
Randle El
(WR, Was) –
Randle El caught all of his targets in Week Seven, posting 4/56.
He’s been useful most weeks for PPR-leaguers because he’s a key
possession guy for Campbell, so you shouldn’t hesitate to reach on
him again this week against a completely inept Lion secondary that
has given up an average of 13/200/.7 to WRs the last four weeks.
Detroit’s corners can be burned with ease, as they tend to leave
wideouts all alone in space and give huge cushions. With that said,
we expect Randle El to use his speed and elusiveness to tally a good
number of YAC on crossing routes and quick-hitters. While he
probably won’t match the sick 7/100 he hung on the Lions last year,
he’s a good bet to help you as a bye-week fill-in in this joke
matchup. The only problem is that Washington can win this game
without throwing a heck of a lot, so massive targets aren’t in the
cards for Antwaan.
History Report:
In Week Five of the 2007 season, these teams met at Washington, with the Redskins taming the Lions, 34-3.
Lineup Updates:
- Redskin backup RB Ladell Betts (knee) is out. Veteran Shaun Alexander did see a few carries behind starter Clinton Portis last week.
- Lion WR Shaun McDonald starts, but Mike Furrey also sees the field a lot and last week was about as active in the offense as McDonald. In fact, Furrey had 8 pass targets to McDonald’s 6.
Special Teams Report:
Rock Cartwright is the primary kick returner. Santana Moss had a 26-yard return in Week Seven, but it was a late game return, and the Redskins had their “good hands” unit on the field to protect against onside and short kickoffs. Moss did have a punt return of 8 yards, but Antwan Randle-El remains the primary punt returner. This week, Washington faces a Lion punt coverage unit that allows fewer than 2 yards a return and might offer up just two or three kickoffs. Meanwhile the Redskins allow just 19 yards per kick return themselves, but gave up returns of 32, 37, 20, 22, 24, and 43 yards on their last six kickoffs. Brandon Middleton averages 21.7 yards per kick return and has posted over 100 kick return yards three times this season. Washington replaced their punter who gave up two punt return touchdowns this season. In his place, they now have a punter who allows 8.5 yards per punt return. Mike Furrey was more involved on offense than Shaun McDonald last week, so McDonald will handle punt returns. He has an average of 8.3 yards a return and Washington punts five times a game on average.
Game Prediction:
Redskins 27
Lions 10
Tampa Bay (5-2) at Dallas (4-3)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 1 p.m. ET, Irving, TX
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Sunny; Temperature: 76 degrees; Winds: 7 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Matchup Overview:
Tony Romo
took one look at this week’s opponent, another look at his broken
pinky finger, and said: “See you in November.” His fellow Cowboys
don’t have that luxury, as they try to get healthy fast against a
Tampa Bay defense that ranks eighth in total defense (303.3 yards
per game) and fourth in scoring defense (15.3 points per game).
Former Buc Brad Johnson, who once led that team to a Super
Bowl championship, will try to shake off his frightful fill-in
performance last week against St. Louis, but Dallas still needs to
get better production from RB Marion Barber and WRs
Terrell Owens and Roy Williams and better play from an
injury-plagued, under-achieving secondary. Buc QB Jeff Garcia
has regained the starting gig, probably for good, with a pair of
stellar games, including a 300-yard laser show last week against
Seattle. WR Antonio Bryant, a Cowboy second-round draft pick
in 2002, has stepped up the pace in the absence of perennially
injured Joey Galloway.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Tampa Bay Defense – The Bucs aren’t a great fantasy defense, because they don’t have much of a pass rush (6 sacks in the last four games) but they do force turnovers and occasionally score. Also, they stop the run, forcing teams to get one-dimensional, and that’s where they could make some hay in this matchup against an immobile Dallas QB (Brad Johnson) at the helm of a struggling offense. Johnson was awful last week, throwing three picks and getting poor blocking up front. It can’t be as bad this week, can it? If you’re a Tampa Bay owner, you hope it can.
Antonio Bryant (WR, TB) – Bryant erupted for 6/115/1 on 6 targets in Week Seven in a breakout effort. He’s going to start this week even if Galloway returns to the lineup, and he’s established himself as the go-to big-play guy for Garcia, so he’s a rock-solid play against a reeling Cowboy pass defense that has allowed an average of 14/174/1.8 to WRs the last four weeks. Dallas’ woeful secondary is comparable to Swiss cheese right now, and their atrocious and slow corners are getting burned for long gainers left and right. With that said, you can pencil Bryant in for healthy digits in this exploitable matchup, and you can expect him to stretch the field with ease, as the verticality has returned to Tampa’s passing game. It could be payback time for Bryant, the former Cowboy.
Earnest Graham (RB, TB) – Graham rushed for 52 yards and 1 TD, with 2/13 as a receiver in Week Seven, but unfortunately he played extensively at fullback again. With Dunn banged up and iffy to play, it seems likely that Graham will be asked to do more playmaking than blocking this week, so he’s certainly a viable play against a regressing Cowboy run defense that has allowed an average of 110 yards and .8 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. His powerful, relentless running style should lead to a few longer runs, and his sensational O-line can create running lanes for him. Plus, the Cowboys aren’t stopping the run with consistency – see Steven Jackson’s monstrous game last week. Thus, decent yardage and some activity in the screen game will be within his reach. What puts him over the top here is Warrick Dunn, who could still be limited if he plays. Since the Bucs want to milk the running game and eat up the clock, Graham should be solid this week at the worst.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Jason
Witten (TE, Dal) – Witten corralled 6/44 on 12 targets in Week Seven, and he
was extremely active as a dump-off weapon with the weak-armed
Johnson under center. Considering Tampa Bay’s scheme tends to limit
big plays and keep wideouts from getting open downfield, we like
Witten’s chances of catching a bunch of balls in the short and
intermediate area of the field this week. Although the Bucs have
allowed an average of just 3/30/.2 to TEs the last four weeks, it’s
a matchup that shapes up nicely for him to be very busy, as
check-down Johnson won’t have an easy time hitting Owens and the
other Cowboy wideouts. Witten doesn’t have a glamorous track record
against the Bucs, but he’s the only Dallas skill player we are
excited about in this tougher spot for the Cowboy offense. And he’s
a stud you never sit.
Marion Barber (RB, Dal) – Barber rumbled for 100 yards and 1 TD, with 1/13 as a receiver in Week Seven. He’s battling some ball security issues, but the Cowboy passing game is in shambles without Romo, so the Barbarian should get a heaping helping of carries this week. We can’t say he’s looking better than usual, though, because the Bucs can stop the run with the best of them, and they’ve allowed an average of just 62 yards and 0 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. Temper expectations for Barber in this very difficult matchup (the Bucs will load up on him and force Johnson to beat them) and pray for a cheap red zone TD because it could be a struggle otherwise. Still, you can’t sit him because it’s entirely possible that he can grind out serviceable numbers over four quarters with his punishing running style. And he did collect 80+ yards with 2 TDs in his last outing against Tampa Bay.
Alex Smith (TE, TB) – Smith registered 2/25 on 4 targets in Week Seven, as Jerramy Stevens cut into his production. He’s hardly capable of going off in his committee situation, but the Dallas pass defense is a mess right now, and Garcia has found his mojo, so Smith’s a viable play this week. The Cowboys have given up an average of just 3/18/0 to TEs the last four weeks, which is minimal production. Still, we’ve seen with our own eyes that their secondary as a whole is struggling and they can’t stop the pass to save their lives, so Smith could rip off a big gainer down the seam and make some noise in the red zone here.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Terrell Owens (WR, Dal) – Owens soiled the bed in Week Seven, posting a pathetic 2/31 on 8 targets. His backup QB can’t get him the ball accurately downfield, and the Bucs have a stingy pass defense that limits big plays, so #81 is definitely looking like a shaky play this week. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that he catches a few short passes and turns them into longer gains, as he’s one of the best in the business at running after the catch. But the Buc secondary is a physical, talented unit that has given up an average of just 10/126/.8 to WRs the last four weeks, and they’ll look to take him out of the game with tight coverage, which makes this a bad matchup. While he eclipsed the 100-yard mark and struck paydirt against the Bucs in their last meeting, no Romo means all bets are off with Owens. He simply can’t make explosive plays with Johnson, who stinks.
Roy Williams (WR, Dal) – Williams saw just 2 targets in Week Seven, failing to register a single catch in his Cowboy debut. There’s no verticality or explosiveness to the Dallas passing game with the erratic and inept Johnson under center, so it’s unlikely that Roy will do much of anything this week against a tough Buc pass defense that has permitted an average of only 10/126/.8 to WRs the last four weeks. The Tampa Bay scheme doesn’t give up big plays, and they have a talented group of playmakers in their defensive backfield. Plus, Crayton inexplicably saw more action than Williams a week ago, which is a concern. In what is essentially a terrible matchup for the entire Cowboy air attack, it’s probably wise to shy away from Roy-Will.
Patrick Crayton (WR, Dal) – Crayton posted 3/30 on 7 targets in Week Seven in a lackluster performance. He’s sharing with Roy and his shaky QB is holding the entire Cowboy passing game back because he flat-out stinks, so don’t count on healthy digits from Crayton this week against a solid, stingy Buc pass defense that has permitted an average of just 10/126/.8 to WRs the last four weeks. He’s not going to stretch the field because Tampa’s stifling scheme won’t allow it, and Johnson has shown he can’t strike accurately downfield anyway, so a few underneath catches are the best you can hope for from this peripheral weapon, who mustered 4/68 against the Bucs in their last meeting. Give some serious thought to sitting him if you can, as the matchup is a brutal one for Dallas’ passing game.
Warrick Dunn (RB, TB) – Dunn rushed for 37 yards with 4/21 as a receiver in Week Seven. He’s banged up and iffy to play this week, though Thursday’s practice. Dunn has a beatable matchup against a vulnerable Cowboy run defense that has given up an average of 110 yards and .8 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. It’s kind of risky to use a backup who is banged up, so make sure he practices full go on Friday. If not, Michael Bennett could fill in.
Too Risky To Play:
Joey Galloway (WR, TB) – He’s got a beautiful matchup against a reeling Cowboy pass defense that features inept corners and poor safeties and that has allowed an average of 14/174/1.8 to WRs the last four weeks. He also posted 3/71 in his last meeting with Dallas. But he’s also been down for what seems like a year, and he’s still limited in practice and is no lock to play. Meanwhile, Antonio Bryant has really asserted himself in the passing game and is playing his old position. If he’s cleared to start on Sunday and you need upside, give him a shot. But he has to be considered risky still.
Brad Johnson (QB, Dal) – Johnson was simply horrendous in Week Seven, as he threw for 234 yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs and caused Dallas’ offense to look listless. He couldn’t hit his receivers in stride or manage to keep the ball in a tight spiral on his downfield throws, so he’s way too risky to utilize this week against an aggressive, stingy Buc defense that has given up an average of only 178 yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. Tampa Bay’s vicious zone blitz schemes will force him into some bad decisions, and there are several ball-hawks in Tampa Bay’s secondary to pick him off. In addition, he’s got a weak arm and he limits what the Cowboys can do in the passing game, so he’s a liability to your fantasy squad. Sure, he’s familiar with what the Bucs do defensively from his days with the team. But that and a dollar can buy you a Coke. Avoid him like the plague.
Dallas
Defense
– This defense
has been a major disappointment, and they lost yet another defensive
back (SS Roy Williams) last week, with CB Terence Newman
still MIA. They do rush the passer well (LB DeMarcus Ware can
set a new NFL record if he gets a sack in his 11th straight game),
but Tampa Bay QB Jeff Garcia doesn’t get sacked or throw
interceptions, so the Cowboys are a really bad option this week.
They also suck, which cannot be understated.
Reaches of the Week:
Jeff Garcia (QB, TB) – Garcia, in his typical frenetic fashion, passed for 310 yards and 1 TD in Week Seven. He always makes things more difficult than they have to be, but he spread the ball around with precision, showed good mobility, got the ball downfield effectively, and threw with touch in that game. With that said, we like him as a reach this week against a dreadful, Swiss-cheese Cowboy pass defense that has given up an average of 214 yards and 1.8 TDs to QBs the last four weeks. Dallas’ secondary can’t stop anyone at this point because they’re undisciplined and they don’t play well together. And Garcia has the elusiveness necessary to dodge DeMarcus Ware and Company and hurt the Cowboys on the back end. Look for a few big plays and an all-around serviceable bottom line from Garcia in this favorable matchup.
History Report:
These teams played last in Week Twelve of 2006 at Dallas, and the Cowboys dominated the Bucs, 38-19.
Lineup Updates:
- Cowboy starting QB Tony Romo (right pinky) isn’t practicing and won’t play. Backup QB Brad Johnson fills in.
- Buccaneer backup RB Warrick Dunn (back) was limited in Thursday’s practice and is considered questionable to play. Buccaneer starting FB B.J. Askew (hamstring) was limited in Wednesday’s practice and didn’t practice Thursday. Backup FB Jameel Cook and starting RB Earnest Graham would fill in again if needed.
- Cowboy rookie RB Felix Jones (hamstring) missed practice again Thursday and is not expected to play. Rookie RB Tashard Choice backs up starting RB Marion Barber again.
- Buccaneer starting WR Joey Galloway (foot) was limited again in Thursday’s practice and is considered questionable to play.
- Buccaneer starting WR Ike Hilliard (head) is questionable. If he can’t play, veteran Michael Clayton would start.
Special Teams Report:
It’s hard to gauge the type of game Dexter Jackson had in Week Seven, as the pathetic Seahawk offense allowed him just one kick and one punt return on the day. Jackson muffed his only kick return opportunity. That is the quickest way to get into Jon Gruden’s doghouse, thus why Michael Clayton handled the only other deep kickoff offered up and it ended in a touchback. Dallas has allowed at least one huge kick return in six straight games. Miles Austin and Isaiah Stanback handled kick returns in Week Seven, with Austin handling the bulk of them. Last week, Austin had returns of 27, 24, and 25 yards, while Stanback took his lone return back for 29 yards. Matt Bryant is nursing a leg injury; thus, four of his fives returns last week went for 26, 24, 61, and 46 yards. With Adam Jones suspended, Patrick Crayton returned two punts for 41 yards in Week Seven. His 33-yard return into Ram territory early in the 3rd quarter was wasted by a missed field goal attempt.
Game Prediction:
Buccaneers 24 Cowboys 17
Cleveland (2-4) at Jacksonville (3-3)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 4:05 p.m. ET, Jacksonville, FL
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Possible isolated thunderstorms; Temperature: 79 degrees; Winds: 11 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 30%
Matchup Overview:
Just when it
looked like the Browns had been revived from critical condition,
they fell deathly ill again last week and now might spend the rest
of the year in the Cleveland Clinic, a dangerous place to be. The
Browns have the second-worst offense in the NFL (263.8 yards per
game), and they’ve suspended one of their top play-makers (TE
Kellen Winslow Jr.) for comments critical of the organization.
Meanwhile, WR Braylon Edwards added five more dropped passes
to his NFL-high collection, and QB Derek Anderson is hearing
the footsteps of Mr. Brady Quinn coming up from behind.
Jacksonville’s offense has looked much better in winning three of
the last four games, and the running attack of Maurice Jones-Drew
and Fred Taylor should find ample cracks in the generous
Brown run defense, but the passing game could be missing the
services of both top receiver Matt Jones (NFL suspension) and
Mike Walker (knee), so Jerry Porter may have to come
out of hiding.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Maurice Jones–Drew (RB, Jac) – Jones-Drew ran wild for 125 yards and 2 TDs, with 2/23 as a receiver in Week Six before the bye, as Taylor was knocked out of the game. Freddy will be back this week to handle his usual between-the-tackles role, but we still love Jones-Drew as a play-to-win choice against a horrendous Brown run defense that has allowed an average of 130 yards and .7 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. We expect the Jags to come out and pound the rock repeatedly and with success in this simple matchup now that they’ve got their starting center back, so it goes without saying that Jones-Drew should be active and quite potent. Plus, big plays are easy to come by on the ground against Cleveland. Also keep in mind DT Corey Williams may be out for the Browns, which would be huge for the Jag running game, and C Brad Meester could be back, also huge.
Marcedes
Lewis (TE, Jac) – Lewis had his second straight solid showing, with 3/64/1 on
5 targets in Week Six before the bye. He’s become a go-to guy of
sorts for Garrard when he wants a big play down the seam, and it’s a
horrible year for fantasy tight ends, so we’re not too shy to admit
that we’re feeling Lewis as a nice play this week. The Brown defense
has given up an average of 3/33/0 to TEs the last four weeks, which
is hardly massive production. But while Cleveland has improved
against the pass this season, they remain vulnerable between the
hash marks, where Lewis is at his best. With that said, it’s a
matchup he can exploit if given the chance.
Jacksonville Defense – The Jaguars have problems rushing the
passer and covering in the secondary. They have only eight sacks as
rookies Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves haven't
provided an impact. They’ve also had injuries in their secondary,
although they did force three turnovers in their last game against
Denver. All that being said, it’s a great matchup this week against
a struggling Derek Anderson, who has been plagued by poor
protection, poor passes and dropped passes, and could be without
starting G Ryan Tucker again this week. The Jags are a viable
play.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Jamal Lewis (RB, Cle) – Lewis rushed for 80 yards with 1/18 as a receiver in Week Seven. He’s not finding the endzone because the Brown offense can’t seem to iron out the kinks. But Jamal should be serviceable this week in terms of his carries and yardage against a beatable Jag run defense that has allowed an average of 97 yards and 0 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. Cleveland clearly needs to get back to basics, reel Anderson in, and pound the rock to get their woeful season turned around, so Lewis should be busy and grind his way to a decent bottom line in this good matchup. After all, it’s not like the Jags are what they once were when it comes to stuffing the run, as they’ve been exposed a bit in 2008.
David Garrard (QB, Jac) – Garrard was razor-sharp in throwing the pill for 276 yards and 1 TD in Week Six before the bye. He’s beginning to find his groove, and the Browns have zero pass rush to threaten him with, so Garrard should be just fine this week against an improved but still weak Brown pass defense that has given up an average of 172 yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. Not having the suspension for Matt Jones, who’s been his #1 guy, certainly helps. Garrard should have all day to sit in the pocket, survey the field, and find the open man, which bodes well for him to make some plays and help you. It’s just a bit of a tricky matchup on paper and one in which the Jags should run it with ease, so he won’t mount on all-out aerial assault or go off.
Matt Jones (WR, Jac) – Jones is on shaky ground pending his suspension, but he’s appealed it, and he should play this week. He has been practicing. He’s leading the Jag in receptions with 30 for 338 yards this season, and he’s really been the only WR they can count on. Cleveland’s respectable but vulnerable pass defense has given up an average of 11/133/1 to WRs the last four weeks, so he doesn’t have a particularly difficult matchup. Given the situation with his suspension, he should certainly play with a sense of urgency, and Lord knows we haven’t seen much from Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter.
Braylon Edwards (WR, Cle) – Edwards fumbled and stumbled his way to 4/58 on 14 targets in Week Seven, once again dropping a bunch of passes and showing a lack of focus. We don’t know what his deal is, but it’s not good because he’s a beastly talent who should be dominating. Throw in the fact that Anderson can’t deliver an accurate forward pass to save his life (or so it seems most weeks), and you can see why we’re not expecting much fantasy goodness from Edwards this week against shut-down CB Rashean Mathis. While the Jag secondary as a whole has been vulnerable on the back end and has allowed a whopping average of 15/182/1.7 to WRs the last four weeks, their elite corner can stay in Edwards’ back pocket and make his life miserable. He’s (almost) impossible to sit, but it’s not a great matchup for him, and Anderson could easily continue to hold him back.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
None of note.
Too Risky To Play:
Derek Anderson (QB, Cle) – Anderson couldn’t throw it in the ocean, so to speak, in Week Seven, as he passed for 136 yards and 1 TD and was incredibly inaccurate. He’s very untrustworthy at this point, and we were disturbed by how tentative he looked in his last outing, so you probably shouldn’t risk it with him this week against a beatable Jag pass defense that has allowed an average of 269 yards and 2.7 TDs to QBs the last four weeks. The cake matchup is tempting and rightfully so, as the Jag secondary has been getting torched for big plays left and right in 2008 because Jacksonville can’t rush the passer. But he’s disappointed time after time this year, and you simply don’t know what you’re going to get from him. Plus, the Browns might reel in him and lean heavily on their ground game in this one with the way he’s been killing their offense. He has a chance, but that’s about it.
Jerry
Porter (WR, Jac) – Porter had no catches or targets in Week Six before the
bye, and he hasn’t done a thing of note since joining the Jags,
which tells you he’s either still hurting or on the decline. With
that said, you should probably steer clear of him this week against
an improved Brown pass defense that has allowed an average of
11/133/1 to WRs the last four weeks. He’ll likely be more involved
than ever with Matt Jones suspended, but it’s probably wise
to wait and see with him.
Cleveland Defense – The Browns sacked Jason Campbell
only once last week, and their run defense is even worse than a year
ago, so they could be run over in this matchup. Not only that, but
Jaguar QB David Garrard is usually not a good source of
fantasy points for opposing DTs, and his offensive line, which has
struggled with protection this year (15 sacks) is getting healthier
with the return of C Brad Meester this week. The Browns
aren’t worth using.
Reaches of the Week:
Fred Taylor (RB, Jac) – Taylor was limited to 10 yards with 1/10 as a receiver in Week Six before the bye, as he suffered a concussion. He’s expected to be a full-go this week, and he’s got a beautiful matchup against an atrocious Cleveland front seven that has permitted an average of 130 yards and .7 TDs to RBs the last four weeks, so we don’t see why he shouldn’t be considered a strong play. Of course, he’ll share with Jones-Drew, which limits his potential. But the return of Jacksonville’s starting center should really help Taylor prosper between the tackles. And the Brown defense has been getting run all over from the get-go in 2008, so we anticipate the Jags emphasizing their two-headed RB monster and calling for a ton of runs. It’s not been a good season at all for Freddy, but things are about to get much better.
Donte Stallworth (WR, Cle) – Stallworth was quiet again in Week Seven, with 2/24 on 6 targets. Anderson is really bogging down the Cleveland passing game. But we consistently advocate reaching on #2 WRs against the Jags because, outside of CB Rashean Mathis, their pass defense is highly suspect, so Stallworth’s definitely intriguing in this spot. Jacksonville’s lame secondary has allowed an average of 15/182/1.7 to WRs the last four weeks and they give up big plays through the air like they’re giving out candy. With that said, you may see Stallworth’s first big play in a Brown uniform in this easy matchup, assuming Anderson doesn’t fall flat on his face again.
Steve Heiden (TE, Cle) – Heiden will fill in for the suspended Kellen Winslow this week, and he had 5/59 in Week Six when Winslow was out, so you can feel good about reaching on him this week if you’re strapped for options at the position. His matchup against a poor Jaguar pass defense that has given up an average of 4/47/.7 to TEs the last four weeks is a juicy one, as Jacksonville’s safeties are a major liability in coverage. And the Browns showed a few weeks ago that they trust the pretty athletic Heiden to stretch the field and run the same type of routes that Winslow runs, which is very encouraging. Now if only Anderson could find some semblance of consistency, Heiden would be money.
History Report:
The last time these teams played was in Week Thirteen of 2005 at Cleveland, and the Jags won, 20-14.
Lineup Updates:
- Brown backup TE Steve Heiden (pectoral) was added to the injury report after being limited in Thursday’s practice, but he’s expected to start for Kellen Winslow (suspension).
- Jaguar WR Matt Jones has been practicing and presumably will play his normal role this week. He’s appealed his suspension.
Special Teams Report:
Josh Cribbs had returns of 22 and 24 yards in Week Seven, but Gerard Lawson made some noise with a 43-yard return that set the offense up near midfield. Unfortunately, they couldn’t capitalize on the opportunity. In Jacksonville, the Browns face a kicker who has 21% of his kicks end in touchbacks and nearly half of his kicks land in the endzone. The Jaguars do allow over six yards per punt return and 23 yards a game to punt returners. While Cleveland allows just 18 yards per kick return, they have given up returns of 21, 24, 36, and 26 on their last four kickoffs. Brian “Spoony” Witherspoon sat out Week Six but is not currently listed on the injury report. Dennis Northcutt did handle punts in his absence, but one has to figure the team would much rather have Spoony’s 12.4-yard punt return average in there instead of Northcutt’s 3.3-yard average. Maurice Jones-Drew handled kickoffs in Week Six, but he might have to carry the offensive load if Fred Taylor is hindered by his concussion suffered in Week Six.
Game Prediction:
Jaguars 24
Browns 17
Cincinnati (0-7) at Houston (2-4)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 4:05 p.m. ET, Houston, TX
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Sunny; Temperature: 83 degrees; Winds: 6 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 10% (Damaged roof of Reliant stadium must remain open for the rest of the season.)
Matchup Overview:
The winless
Bengals are a complete mess. They could be missing their starting
quarterback for the rest of the season, and they lost their top
draft pick to injury last week. They’ve switched from fumble-prone
Chris Perry to Bear castoff Cedric Benson as their
starting running back. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been
sacked 15 times in four games. With all that, who’d have thought
Chad Johnson’s mouth would be the least of their concerns? They
get another chance to restore some pride with this trip to Houston,
where the last-place but surging Texans are trying to win their
third straight after an 0-4 start. Last week, the Texans jumped out
to an early three-touchdown lead before holding on for a victory
over Detroit. TE Owen Daniels finally got some red-zone love
with two TD passes from Matt Schaub, and rookie RB Steve
Slaton scored his third touchdown in three games. WR Andre
Johnson is looking studly as ever, with three straight 100-yard
receiving games.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Matt Schaub (QB, Hou) – Schaub tore it up in Week Seven, throwing for 267 yards and 2 TDs with confidence and precision. He’s got a ton of weapons at his disposal, he’s getting more and more comfortable, and he throws with sensational timing when he’s protected. With that said, he could easily go off this week against a weak Bengal defense that lacks a threatening pass rush (a huge key for Schaub) and won’t challenge him with aggressive play. Cincy has allowed an average of 188 yards and 2 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, so it’s a solid matchup. And the Texan offense is looking deadlier with each passing week. Turn him loose and enjoy the show.
Steve Slaton (RB, Hou) – Slaton again came through for his fantasy owners in Week Seven, rushing for 80 yards and 1 TD, with 3/9 as a receiver. He makes big plays on a weekly basis, either as a runner or a receiver. His O-line is starting to mesh nicely, and the Texan offense is really tough to defend right now with all their weapons, so expect success and more explosive gains from Slaton this week. The Bengals have allowed an average of 124 yards and 1.5 TDs to RBs the last four weeks, and their talent-less, soft front seven stinks to high heaven, which makes this an oh-so exploitable matchup for this rookie phenom. With changeup guy Ahman Green playing a significant role and looking sharp, Slaton’s ceiling is only so high. But he’s money near the goal line, he’s extremely versatile, and the Texans should have no problems running all over the lowly Bengals. Get him in your lineup.
Andre Johnson (WR, Hou) – Johnson posted 11/141 on 13 targets in Week Seven and after the game he claimed that he’s still not completely in-sync with Schaub, which is a really scary thought. With Andre suggesting that the best is yet to come and Schaub sure to get all day to throw this week against a passive, inferior Bengal defense, look for this beast to erupt with ample catches and a big yardage total. Cincy’s weak pass defense has permitted an average of 9/122/1.2 to WRs the last four weeks, so there’s nothing scary about Johnson’s matchup. And he’s being fed the ball repeatedly on routes that put him in a position to run after the catch, which bodes well for him to make a few big plays with his legs in this spot. You might want to use him, as the shaky Bengal corners are going to have their hands full.
Owen Daniels (TE, Hou) – Daniels continued his prolific 2008 campaign, with 6/66/2 on 8 targets in Week Seven, scoring on a pair of goal-line TD grabs. He has officially arrived as a stud at the position, and the Texan passing game is really heating up, so use Daniels with confidence this week. He’s got an exploitable matchup against a bad Bengal defense that has permitted an average of 4/39/.2 to TEs the last four weeks. And we envision Schaub sitting comfortably in the pocket and picking Cincy apart. Thus, Daniels should post ample catches and yardage and possibly keep his mojo going down near the endzone.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR, Cin) – Housh corralled 8/58 on 9 targets in Week Seven, as he keeps getting fed the ball in the short area of the field by his check-down QB. He’s looking like a good bet to catch a ton of passes underneath and sniff the endzone this week against a vulnerable Texan pass defense that has given up an average of 10/148/.8 to WRs the last four weeks because the Bengals will have no choice but to throw it a ton when the Texans score at will. Houston’s secondary isn’t very good anyway, so expect success from Houshmandzadeh in this simple, straightforward matchup, which could develop into a legit shootout. Look for 7-8 catches here.
Chad Johnson (WR, Cin) – Johnson got the job done in Week Seven, with 8/52/1 on 13 targets, and it’s worth noting that he was a huge factor in red zone. Clearly, there’s not much verticality to the Bengal passing game with Fitzpatrick at the helm, and the Bengal O-line protecting him terribly, so you can’t count on many explosive plays from #85 this week. But Houston’s secondary is a sub-par unit, and they’ve allowed an average of 10/148/.8 to WRs the last four weeks, so Johnson should be in a position to do some positive things in the intermediate area of the field when this game turns into a pass-friendly shootout. And how can you not be encouraged by his sudden go-to status inside the 20? He’ll make some sort of noise in this decent matchup if you need him – and he could easily surprise if Fitzpatrick is accurate enough.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Kevin Walter (WR, Hou) – Walter disappointed in Week Seven with a measly 3/27 on 4 targets. At this point, he’s not getting enough opportunities to truly go off with Andre commanding the ball, Owen blossoming, and the Texan running game hitting its stride, so he’s just a decent play this week against a so-so Bengal pass defense that has given up an average of 9/122/1.2 to WRs the last four weeks. We love Schaub’s potential to shred Cincy and fire a couple of TDs, but Walter’s looking more and more like a peripheral weapon, which makes him viable but not a must-play. It does need to be pointed out that he’s playing his former team, which could give him some added juice this week.
Chris Henry (WR, Cin) – Henry got back into the swing of things somewhat with 3/44 on 7 targets in Week Seven. He was working some of his magic in the intermediate-to-deep area of the field in that game, so he’s worth considering this week against a lame Texan pass defense that has allowed an average of 10/148/.8 to WRs the last four weeks. After all, Fitzpatrick should have to put the ball up quite a bit to keep pace with the high-powered Texan offense, and Houston’s secondary won’t put up much of a fight, which means Henry could see upwards of 5 grabs if the planets align for him. It’s just hard to pencil him in for a huge gainer, as Fitzpatrick’s not getting the time he needs from his pathetic O-line to launch bombs.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
None of note.
Too Risky To Play:
None of note.
Cincinnati
Defense
– There’s no
reason to use this defense. They give up tons of points and yards,
don’t force turnovers, and don’t get after the quarterback. Plus,
they lost LB Keith Rivers to a season-ending injury. Texan QB
Matt Schaub isn’t immune to mistakes (he was sacked three
times by the Lions last week, mostly due to bad decisions on his
part), but he should handle the Bengals.
Reaches of the Week:
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, Cin) – Fitzpatrick passed for 164 yards and 1 TD and got sacked repeatedly behind his embarrassment of an O-line in Week Seven. While we worry that DE Mario Williams could have a field day on him this week, Houston’s pass rush is rather tame otherwise, and their secondary isn’t exactly oozing with talent. As a result, we feel comfortable reaching with him. He’s got weapons to work with, no question, and he’s going to be forced to throw it a ton when the Texans put some points on the scoreboard. Plus, the Texan secondary has allowed an average of 258 yards and 1.5 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, which is healthy production. It may be a dink-and-dunk circus because he’s not seeing the deep part of the field clearly or having much success striking downfield, but wholesome digits should be there for the taking in this simple matchup.
Cedric Benson (RB, Cin) – Benson, who’s pretty much seized a hold of the starting role, rushed for 52 yards with 1/10 as a receiver in Week Seven, running hard and looking, dare we say, quicker than usual. He’s hardly a strong play this week given the shaky performance of his underachieving O-line and the likelihood that the Bengals could be forced to get pass-happy when they fall behind. But Benson’s not such a terrible guy to take a flyer on, given his decent matchup against a soft Texan run defense that has permitted an average of 83 yards and 1.2 TDs as well as massive production through the air to RBs the last four weeks. The situation’s not rosy in Cincy, but he has a chance to do something noteworthy with the way the Texans are getting run on.
Ahman
Green (RB, Hou) – Green rushed for 62 yards and 1 TD with 1/3 as a receiver
in Week Seven, making it known that he’s back and ready to be an
explosive and effective change-of-pace to Slaton going forward. He’s
well worth a reach this week against a terrible, undisciplined
Bengal front seven that has permitted an average of 124 yards and
1.5 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. The Texans should control this
game, dictate the tempo, and have their way on the ground when
Schaub’s not busy torching Cincy through the air. With his O-line
rounding into form, Green could come off the bench and bust some
nice runs in this sweet matchup and be a garbage-time monster.
Houston Defense – They’re still not doing much, with only
seven sacks and four forced turnovers in the last five games, but
they get a prime matchup here against struggling Bengal backup QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was sacked seven more times last week.
Cincinnati has given up 26 sacks in seven games, and Fitzpatrick
lost a fumble on a sack for the third time in his third start last
week. The Texans are a solid sleeper pick this week.
History Report:
These teams met most recently in Week Four of 2005 at Cincinnati, with the Bengals winning, 16-10.
Lineup Updates:
- Bengal QB Ryan Fitzpatrick starts for Carson Palmer again this week.
- Bengal RB Cedric Benson is expected to start again with backup Kenny Watson seeing time behind him.
- Bengal K Shayne Graham (groin) practiced again Thursday and is expected to start.
Special Teams Report:
Glenn Holt sat out Week Seven with an ankle injury, but has returned to practice and is probable for this week. The Texans allow just 19 yards per kick return, but they will offer up five or six opportunities, and Holt will close in on the century mark this week. Antonio Chatman had three punt returns for just six yards last week, but he came away from the game with an ankle injury and is questionable to play this week. With Jerome Simpson questionable with an ankle injury and Andre Caldwell out with a foot injury, Leon Hall or T.J. Houshmandzadeh could get the call to handle punt returns. Houston allows over six yards per punt return, but only punt three times a game on average. Andre Davis’ is out with an injured finger. So, the kick return duties will fall to Jacoby Jones or Steve Slaton this week. The likely replacement is Jones as Slaton is the starting RB. The Bengals have allowed returns of 46, 23, 20, and 27 yards in their last two games, but Shayne Graham returns as the kickoff specialist. Thus, Jones will struggle to reach the century mark this week.
Game Prediction:
Texans 27 Bengals
17
New
York Giants (5-1) at Pittsburgh (5-1)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 4:15 p.m. ET, Pittsburgh, PA
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Temperature: Winds: Chance of Precipitation:
Matchup Overview:
These two
closely matched teams have a lot in common. They boast fourth-year
quarterbacks (Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger) who
have already won Super Bowls, supplemented by powerful, run-oriented
offenses and smothering defenses. Plus, both teams conduct practices
and much of their off-field business without the presence of
Plaxico Burress, who is a team unto himself. Pittsburgh, which
leads the league in total defense and pass defense, is coming off a
rout of Cincinnati. They won’t likely get top RB Willie Parker
back this week, but versatile Mewelde Moore has proven to be
a more than adequate replacement. The Giants haven’t clicked
offensively the last two weeks, but the defense stepped it up with
three turnovers and six sacks last week against San Francisco. The
Giants will test Pittsburgh’s second-ranked run defense with their
trio of running backs, especially if top receiver Burress, a former
Steeler, is limited or inactive with his latest ailment (shoulder).
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Hines Ward (WR, Pit) – Ward was his usual trusty self in Week Seven, with 4/60/1 on 10 targets. He’s been Mr. Red Zone for the Steelers in 2008, and he’s consistently on Big Ben’s radar, so look for Ward to have a great outing this week. The Giant secondary is a vulnerable one, and they’ve given up an average of 10/160/.7 to WRs the last four weeks, which indicates Ward should be in a position to pick up yardage in chunks. Nobody feasts on struggling corners like Hines, and New York’s corners are really a mess right now. Keep in mind that the Steelers won’t find it easy to run on the G-Men, and Roethlisberger may have to carry the offense through the air because that bodes well for his reception total.
N.Y. Giants Defense – Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger was not sacked last week by Cincinnati for the first time this season and only the second time in two seasons. Of course, that was an aberration; Big Ben is usually under constant pressure, takes a lot of sacks, and he could be missing LT Marvel Smith (back) for this game against one of the league’s top pass-rushing teams. DE Justin Tuck and DT Fred Robbins have combined for 11 sacks already, and they’ll be helped by the expected return of MLB Antonio Pierce from a quad injury. The Giants are a strong play this week.
Looking Neither Better/Worse Than Usual:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Pit) – Big Ben fired the pill for 216 yards and 2 TDs in Week Seven in an impressive, precise fashion. We foresee the Steelers having their fair share of difficulty sustaining runs this week, so Roethlisberger should throw it more than usual and have success against a reeling Giant secondary that has permitted an average of 230 yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. After all, New York’s been giving up some big plays through the air as of late, and Big Ben has an arsenal of weapons to choose from. The potential is there for a turnover or two, as he’ll have to deal with New York’s relentless and challenging pass rush, which means there is a chance things could get ugly. But he’s adept at improvising and making spontaneous plays when he’s under pressure and the Steeler O-line is playing better, which means you can use him with confidence. Also keep in mind that Giant corner Aaron Ross is struggling greatly, so a big play seems inevitable. As long as he can roll out of the pocket and avoid the rush, some big plays are there for the taking. No Santonio Holmes should hurt for him, but Nate Washington is pretty solid and a viable deep threat.
Eli Manning (QB, NYG) – Manning wasn’t sharp at all in Week Seven, despite getting all day to throw from his outstanding big uglies, as he passed for just 161 yards and 1 TD. He’s certainly viable this week against an injury-riddled Steeler secondary, even one that has given up an average of 189 yards and 1 TD to QBs the last four weeks. After all, he takes his deep shots off play action each week and the Steelers aren’t immune to big plays. But Pittsburgh’s blitz-happy linebackers could really throw him off his game at times and batter him, which leads us to believe it’ll be far from a flawless performance from Eli, plus his #1 WR is banged up. Looking on the bright side, it’s not a game in which his running game will dominate, so he should take to the air more than usual. All in all, a solid, mid-range effort is what you should expect.
Brandon Jacobs (RB, NYG) – Jacobs plowed his way to 69 yards and 2 TDs, with 1/6 as a receiver in Week Seven. His O-line is simply outstanding, and he’s getting a lot of love near the goal line, so he should be okay this week. But by no means is he a good bet to go off, as the stout Steeler run defense has given up an average of just 66 yards and .7 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. Pittsburgh’s nasty front seven will pose a serious challenge to him, no question. Keep in mind, too, that DT Casey Hampton returns this week. Still, we suspect he’ll sniff the endzone and get downhill with power for useful yardage in New York’s run-heavy offense. Thus, there’s no need to completely avoid him in this scarier matchup.
Plaxico Burress (WR, NYG) – Burress posted 3/24/1 on 11 targets in Week Seven, salvaging an otherwise ugly day with a red zone score. He’s nursing a shoulder injury, so he’s iffy to play. Pittsburgh’s secondary is banged up and they’ve allowed an average of 13/146/.3 to WRs the last four weeks, so he could come through with some downfield action against his former team when the Giants struggle to run the rock. But unless he’s cleared to play, you have to lower expectations for this #1 NFL and fantasy wideout.
Mewelde Moore (RB, Pit) - The G-Men have allowed an average of only 73 yards and .3 TDs to RBs the last four weeks, and they hang their hat on their ability to stop the run. With that said, Moore’s yardage total could leave something to be desired. Still, assuming he carries the load as expected, he figures to get a heaping helping of touches, which a versatile guy like him can turn into decent digits. And a TD might not be out the question in this tougher matchup.
Amani
Toomer (WR, NYG) – Toomer registered 3/31 on 7 targets in Week Seven, as slot
guy Steven Smith continued to cut into his production. He’s
got a decent matchup this week against a banged-up Steeler secondary
that has given up an average of 13/146/.3 to WRs the last four
weeks. But he’s only good for a few catches in his possession role,
so there’s really no tangible upside to using him. Ultimately, he
should be fine, as the Giants figure to have to take to the air a
bit more than usual. Just realize he hasn’t been stretching the
field much as of late, and TDs have been hard for him to come by.
Pittsburgh Defense – The Steelers are on a nice roll, coming
off a big game against the Bengals in which they piled up seven
sacks and recovered a fumble. They’ve averaged 4.5 sacks over the
last four games. They’ll get DT Casey Hampton back from a
groin injury, just as they lose starting CB Bryant McFadden
to an arm injury. Giant QB Eli Manning has been shakier in
the last two games, but he still gets solid protection from his
offensive line. The Giants will likely run it a lot, anyway, so
there will be fewer opportunities for a slightly banged-up Troy
Polamalu and friends to make big plays in the secondary. Don’t
expect the world here.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Santonio Holmes (WR, Pit) – He’s not expected to play this week after weed bust.
Derrick Ward (RB, NYG) – Ward rushed for 19 yards, with 3/50 as a receiver in Week Seven in his changeup role, flashing the zuzu we often see from him. This week, he’s got a brutal matchup against a stifling Pittsburgh front seven that has allowed an average of just 66 yards and .7 TDs to RBs the last four weeks. And the Giant power running game probably won’t go bananas. With that said, it’s hard to have faith in his ability to muster garbage-time production off the bench. Look to sit him.
Too Risky To Play:
Willie Parker (RB, Pit) – Parker’s been expected to suit up and carry the load this week, but coming off the layoff and going up against a physical, aggressive Giant defense, he’s not jumping off the page as a sensational play. And while the team said earlier this week that he was expected to play, it was not a good sign that he didn’t take his normal practice reps on Thursday, and now he’s expected to miss the game after not going on Friday.
Reaches of the Week:
Nate Washington (WR, Pit) – Washington, expected to start for Holmes, is a viable deep threat, and he should be productive this week against a struggling Giant pass defense that has given up an average of 10/160/.7 to WRs the last four weeks. We know New York’s shaky corners can be had for the big play, and it seems likely that Roethlisberger will have to take some chances downfield with the tougher matchup for his running game, so all signs point to Washington making some noise in the vertical passing game. Whether or not Big Ben gets the time he needs to strike deep is the only concern here.
Heath Miller (TE, Pit) – Miller quietly posted a lackluster 2/13 on 4 targets in Week Seven. He’s very hit-or-miss because his involvement in the gameplan varies from week to week, but we suspect he might be worth a desperation reach this week against a struggling Giant pass defense that has permitted an average of 3/43/.5 to TEs the last four weeks. That’s because the Steeler ground game won’t click on all cylinders this week, which will force Roethlisberger to key the offense with plenty of throws. And when Big Ben’s faced with New York’s all-out blitzes, who’s going to be his safety valve? Miller, of course. Expect moderate success from him in this beatable matchup.
History Report:
These teams faced each other way back in Week Fifteen of 2004 at the Meadowlands. The Steelers won by a FG, 33-30.
Lineup Updates:
- Steeler starting RB Willie Parker (knee) was added to the injury report after being limited in Thursday’s practice. Backup RB Mewelde Moore would start if Parker can’t play.
- Giant starting WR Plaxico Burress (shoulder) missed practice again Thursday and had tests taken to determine the extent of the injury. If he can’t play, backup WR Domenik Hixon would likely start.
- Steeler WR Santonio Holmes will be inactive this week; Nate Washington will start.
Special Teams Report:
Ahmad Bradshaw eclipsed the century mark for the first time this season last week when he returned five kicks for 109 yards. This week he faces a much tougher task against Pittsburgh. While five of the Steelers kicks in Week Seven were returned for an average of a mere 11.8 yards, they did allow two returns of 34 and 36 yards. In fact, Pittsburgh has given up a return of 34 or more yards in each of their last four games. Domenik Hixon returned to action in Week Seven and returned two punts for 8 yards. This week, he faces a unit that allows fewer than three yards a return. Even though Willie Parker is due back this week, Mewelde Moore will continue to be the 3rd-down back and relief for Parker. Thus, Najeh Davenport will likely continue to handle kickoffs for the next few weeks or longer. In their last 33 kickoffs, New York has allowed just five returns over 22 yards (27, 26, 27, 25, and 25). Moore will handle punt returns unless Parker has a setback. Santonio Holmes would handle punts should Mewelde be heavily involved on offense.
Game Prediction:
Steelers 21
Giants 20
Seattle (1-5) at San Francisco (2-5)
When and Where: Sunday, October 19, 4:15 p.m. ET, San Francisco, CA
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Sunny; Temperature: 79 degtees; Winds: 6 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 0%
Matchup Overview:
The 49ers pulled the plug on the not-so-epic Mike Nolan era this week, handing the keys to this sputtering team off to former Bear great Mike Singletary. Seahawk coach Mike Holmgren is probably second-guessing his decision to stay on for another year because this season has been a disaster. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is questionable again with a strange back/leg injury. Neither Seneca Wallace nor Charlie Frye have proven he can manage the offense, and RB Julius Jones is having hissy-fits on the sideline about his playing time. Plus, the defense stinks. The 49ers, meanwhile, got their coach fired in a festering stew of turnovers, dropped passes and sacks, and a soft defense that only shows up at home. At least they’ve unleashed a promising receiver in Josh Morgan, who has played like a #1 in recent weeks.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Isaac Bruce (WR, SF) – Bruce posted 3/47 on 5 targets in Week Seven in a lackluster performance. We expect him to bounce back this week and put up strong digits against a struggling Seahawk pass defense that has given up an average of 13/194/1.7 to WRs the last four weeks because Seattle’s secondary has been getting torched through the air for big plays left and right. O’Sullivan, who still does have protection issues, will likely look to get the ball to Bruce quickly, to keep out of 3rd and long downs, and then he should take a few deep shots, and Bruce is always on his radar in the red zone, so he has the potential to hit for some long gainers and find the endzone in this cake matchup. Keep in mind he hurt Seattle for 4/153 in their meeting earlier this season.
Frank Gore
(RB, SF) – Gore had a major clunker in Week Seven, rushing for just 11
yards, with 3/50 as a receiver. Martz is starting to have some
commitment issues with the run, which is a bit disturbing. But
chances are Gore will get enough touches in his do-it-all role to
grind out healthy numbers this week against a bad Seahawk run
defense that has allowed an average of 140 yards and 1 TD to RBs the
last four weeks. While Seattle has plenty of talent on their front
seven, they’ve been getting run all over as of late due to poor
tackling and low-level play, so it’s a favorable matchup that bodes
well for Gore to get back on track and strike paydirt. Earlier this
season against Seattle, he tallied 99 total yards and scored a TD,
which is all the more reason to turn him loose and expect success.
He’s also had many big games against them in the past.
Looking Neither Better Nor Worse Than Usual:
Julius Jones (RB, Sea) – Jones rushed for 42 yards, with 1/-5 as a receiver in Week Seven, splitting time with Morris. It’s back to being a timeshare in Seattle, which limits Jones’ upside for sure. But without Hasselbeck, the Seahawks have basically been a run-oriented team, so Jones should get a fair number of touches and do something of note this week against an undisciplined Niner run defense that has given up an average of 114 yards and 1.5 TDs as well as some hay through the air to RBs the last four weeks. It’s hard to expect much with how brutal the Seahawk offense has been, but he rushed for 127 yards and 1 TD against this defense earlier in the season, which leads us to believe he has a chance to be moderately productive in this exploitable matchup. He’ll certainly get opportunities to put up solid numbers, even with Mo Morris in the mix.
Maurice Morris (RB, Sea) – Morris picked up 56 yards, with 2/12 as a receiver in Week Seven, busting off a big run in the process. He’s in the mix for touches alongside Julius Jones, and Seattle’s been leaning rather heavily on their ground game with Hasselbeck on the shelf, so we expect Morris to make a few plays and be decent this week against a poor Niner run defense that has allowed an average of 114 yards and 1.5 TDs as well as massive production through the air to RBs the last four weeks. His receiving skills and explosive ability in space make him a good bet to do some damage in the screen game as well. But keep your expectations modest because Seattle’s offense is pretty much a mess right now, and he’s in a timeshare. Still, it’s a great matchup for Morris if you’re really hurting for options.
John Carlson (TE, Sea) – Carlson was serviceable in Week Seven, posting 3/11/1 on 6 targets. He’s the only receiver in Seattle who’s been showing signs of life lately, and he has a knack for wiggling his way open in the red zone, so Carlson’s certainly viable this week. With Wallace at the helm and his tougher matchup against a Niner defense that has given up an average of just 1/12/.2 to TEs the last four weeks, it’s unlikely he’ll make many big plays. But he hurt the Niners for 6/78 earlier this year, and the tight end position is thin in fantasy this season, so we see no reason you should steer clear of him. He’s a talented youngster who can grab you several balls.
Vernon
Davis (TE, SF) – Davis soiled the bed in Week Seven, as he registered just
1/5 on 2 targets and had another bad drop on what could have been a
huge gain. He’s completely unreliable at this point, but his nice
matchup against a reeling Seahawk pass defense that has given up an
average of 4/39/0 to TEs the last four weeks shapes up nicely for
him to catch a few passes down the seam. That’s because Seattle’s
safeties have been a major liability in coverage. In a game where
O’Sullivan could get the time he needs to do some serious damage
through the air, it seems likely that Vern will make his presence
felt. But as always, he’s about as mediocre a play as you can find,
particularly with his case of stone hands. Plus, he was shut out by
this defense earlier in the year.
Seattle Defense – Despite a number of Pro Bowl players, this
unit has been terrible, with very little pass rush and hardly any
big plays. They were picked apart by Jeff Garcia last week,
but Niner QB J.T. O’Sullivan is the antithesis of Garcia: he
gets sacked in bunches, throws costly interceptions, and fumbles the
ball under pressure, all resulting in fantasy points for the
opposition. So, we can see Patrick Kerney getting to him once
or twice. They also have a good kick return threat in Josh Wilson.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
None of note
Too Risky To Play:
Seneca Wallace (QB, Sea) – Wallace threw for just 73 yards, with 1 TD and 1 INT in Week Seven in an ugly, erratic effort. Seattle’s putrid passing game isn’t generating much fantasy goodness, and they’re a running team anyway with Hasselbeck out, so don’t dare tangle with Wallace this week. In theory, he could hurt San Francisco’s lame pass defense for a big play, as their safeties are a joke. And the Niners have allowed an average of 265 yards and 1.8 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, which is quite a bit of production. But Wallace will be captaining a limited offense with a thin receiving corps, so there’s only so much he can do. You have to have a better option.
Bobby Engram (WR, Sea) – Engram was shut down in Week Seven, corralling just 1/8 on 4 targets. There’s zero explosiveness or dynamism to the stagnant Seahawk passing game at this point, and it’s clear that they want to pound the rock with their two-headed RB monster until Hasselbeck’s healthy, so we simply can’t get behind Engram. He’s got a great matchup against an inferior Niner pass defense that has allowed an average of 13/203/1.5 to WRs the last four weeks, as San Fran’s defensive backs have been playing at a really low level. But it’s probably wise to avoid him until he gets his capable starting QB back. After all, we haven’t seen him mesh very well with the Seattle’s backup signal-callers.
Koren Robinson (WR, Sea) – Robinson started in Week Seven and posted 2/23 on 6 targets. He’s just a guy, the Seahawk passing game is horrendous with Hasselbeck out, and Seattle’s going to get off the bus running it this week, so don’t bother using Koren. The terrible Niner pass defense has allowed an average of 13/203/1.5 to WRs the last four weeks, which makes it a very favorable matchup for Seattle’s passing game. But we’re not confident the shaky Wallace can exploit it with accurate throws and downfield fireworks, so Robinson’s a dangerous guy to deploy. After all, he’s done nothing to instill confidence this year.
Reaches of the Week:
J.T. O'Sullivan (QB, SF) – O’Sullivan once again had some problems in Week Seven, as he passed for 256 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs. He’s a turnover machine, his horrendous O-line is leaving him vulnerable to repeated hits, and he’s starting to force throws. But even with all those issues, we’re feeling him as a sneaky reach this week for a few reasons. First off, Martz’ offense is generating fantasy-friendly yardage through the air, which is worth something. Also, O’Sullivan’s got a great matchup against a struggling Seahawk pass defense that has given up an average of 263 yards and 2 TDs to QBs the last four weeks and that allows big plays on a regular basis. In addition, Seattle’s pass rush has been simply anemic this season, so he’s a good bet to get comfortable in the pocket. Throw in the fact that he lit this defense up for 321 yards and 1 TD in their meeting earlier this year, and you can see our case for taking a gamble on O’Sullivan.
Josh Morgan (WR, SF) – Morgan was a busy man in Week Seven, corralling 5/86/1 on 10 targets and scoring on a beautiful big-play TD. While Morgan had a drop on another potential big play, he’s a big-body guy with some speed who’s going to start from here on out. With that said, he’s a nice reach candidate this week. He can easily get behind Seattle atrocious secondary for a big gainer or two, as they’ve given up an average of 13/194/1.7 to WRs the last four weeks. And we’re told Martz loves his potential to be a big-time NFL receiver, so assuming he’s not limited by his groin injury, Morgan should be money in this cake matchup. Keep in mind Seattle’s shaky #2 corner and slow safeties have been getting abused by wideouts from Day One of the 2008 season because that bodes well for Morgan to find plenty of open real estate downfield.
San Francisco Defense – They’re playing at home, where they usually play better, in their first game under defensive great Mike Singletary, with some pride on the line, and they get most likely Seneca Wallace behind center for the Seahawks. Yeah, that’s a perfect storm for the 49er defense to get something done here. Unfortunately, they lost top return man Allen Rossum to a groin strain last week.
History Report:
Last season, these NFC West rivals met in Week Four at San Francisco and Week Ten at Seattle. The Seahawks won both games with the greatest of ease, 23-3 and 24-0.
Lineup Updates:
- Seahawk starting QB Matt Hasselbeck (knee/back) missed practice again Thursday and is not expected to play. Look for backup QB Seneca Wallace to start again for him.
- Seahawk WR Deion Branch (knee) didn’t practice again Thursday and is considered very questionable to play. Backup WR Bobby Engram would start again if Branch is out. WR Koren Robinson (knee) was limited in Thursday’s practice, but is expected to start.
Special Teams Report:
Josh Wilson cranked out 146 yards on four kick returns in Week Seven. Two of his returns went for 61 and 46 yards. It marked the fourth time Wilson has reached the century mark this season. The two times he didn’t reach it, he had 93 and 85 kick return yards in Weeks Three and Six. He should close in on the century mark once again this week because the 49ers allow 21 yards per kick return and should offer up five or six opportunities. Justin Forsett had a return of 24 yards last week and handled two punts for 36 yards. San Francisco can be had on punt returns as they allow 5.1 yards a return and usually punt four or five times a game. Allen Rossum suffered a groin injury in Week Seven, but he is expected to play this week unless he has a setback prior to the game. If he can’t go this week, Delanie Walker would handle kickoffs. Be leery here, though as 29% of Olindo Mare kickoffs end in a touchback. Nate Clements is the backup punt returner, but he has a ribcage injury that might force the team to use Arnaz Battle on punt returns if Rossum is out.
Game Prediction:
49ers 27 Seahawks 17
Indianapolis (3-3) at Tennessee (6-0)
When and Where: Monday, October 20, 8:30 p.m. ET, Nashville, TN
Game-time Weather Report: Conditions: Partly cloudy; Temperature: 51 degrees; Winds: 11 mph; Chance of Precipitation: 10%
Matchup Overview:
It’s a changing of the guard in the AFC South, live on Prime Time television, and a chance for the Titans to remind everyone there’s more to Nashville than the Grand Ole Opry. They’re off to the best start in the organization’s 49-year existence and remain the NFL’s only unbeaten team, with a punishing ground game and a stifling, opportunistic defense. Their aim is to loosen the Colts’ stranglehold on the AFC South crown, but that grip is already pretty weak. The usually disciplined Colts have been whistled for 46 penalties, third-most in the AFC, and their defense, especially against the run, is shattered by the loss of safety Bob Sanders and other injuries. QB Peyton Manning is still not himself, following up a strong performance against Baltimore with a miserable outing against Green Bay last week in which he completed half of his passes and had two interceptions returned for touchdowns. The Colts have beaten the Titans eight of the last 10 times.
Looking Glass:
Looking Better Than Usual:
Chris
Johnson (RB, Ten) – Johnson went off in Week Seven, piling up 168 yards and 1
TD with 2/4 as a receiver and showing unreal speed on his long
scoring jaunt. He’s an electrifying talent and he’s going to see
plenty of touches in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense this week, so use
him with confidence against a poor Colt run defense that has
permitted an average of 95 yards and 1 TD to RBs the last four
weeks. Indy gives up big runs and they also are very vulnerable on
the perimeter to pass-catching backs, which indicates Johnson
shouldn’t have much trouble accumulating yardage in chunks in this
simple matchup. LenDale limits this rook’s upside because he’s a TD
vulture, but all the explosiveness and juicy upside lies with
Johnson, who’s a threat to go the distance on any run. Plug-and-play
him, as he’s runs with remarkable physicality for a so-called speed
guy.
LenDale White (RB, Ten) – White erupted for 149 yards and 3 TDs, with 1/7 as a receiver in Week Seven, busting off a massive TD run in the process. He’s a TD machine and the thunderous element of Tennessee’s two-headed RB monster, which should get fed a ton this week, so look for him to strike paydirt and power his way to good yardage against a soft Colt run defense that has allowed an average of 95 yards and 1 TD to RBs the last four weeks. Indy’s speed/finesse front seven could be physically overmatched by LenDale’s mauling O-line, which makes him a sensational play in this easier matchup, even with the timeshare. And he did find the endzone against Indy last season.
Tennessee Defense – The sturdy and effective Titan defense
had a fairly quiet game against the Chiefs last week, with no
turnovers and three sacks, but they did not knock two quarterbacks
out for the season, so that’s something. Peyton Manning is
still Peyton Manning, and he can still create nightmares for
opposing DTs, but his protection has been shaky of late, and last
week against Green Bay he threw two interceptions, both returned for
touchdowns. The availability of Titan DE Kyle Vanden Bosch is
a question mark coming into this game, but Albert Haynesworth
is playing like a man possessed, and you have to give Tennessee a
strong chance to rise to the occasion in front of their home crowd
on Monday Night Football.
Looking Neither Better Nor Worse Than Usual:
Dallas
Clark (TE, Ind) – Clark got back on track in Week Seven, posting 8/81 on 11
targets and catching the ball all over the field. There’s very
little consistency to the Colt passing game right now, with their
O-line underachieving and Manning having trouble getting in a
rhythm, so it’s hard to say Clark is a great play this week. But the
Titan defense has given up an average of 5/67/0 to TEs the last four
weeks, which is a lot of production, and it’s doubtful the Colts
will run it well, so Clark should be active enough to help you in
this tricky matchup. After all, he did drop 7/69/1 on the Titans in
one game last year. And Tennessee can be hyper-aggressive defending
the run, so a big gainer off play action can’t be ruled out.
Reggie Wayne (WR, Ind) – Wayne was essentially shut down in Week Seven, as he managed just 2/24 on 10 targets. The Colt offense is completely inconsistent at this point, so it’s hard to know what to expect from them each week. But it seems likely that Wayne should be busy this week and catch a fair number of balls, which makes him a good play. Still, you can’t expect the world because Manning could be pressured all day behind his shaky O-line. And Tennessee’s stingy pass defense has allowed an average of just 11/128/0 to WRs the last four weeks, so they’re very difficult to throw on. Wayne did catch a total of 17 balls in his two meetings with the Titans last season, though, which tells you there’s some hope for him to be okay in this bad matchup for Indy’s offense. He’s the go-to guy in this passing game, keep in mind.
Looking Worse Than Usual:
Peyton Manning (QB, Ind) – Manning was off his game in Week Seven, passing for 229 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs. He continues to get bad protection from his lousy O-line and continues to play fast, which has made it hard for him to be consistent. With that said, going up against an aggressive, stingy Titan defense that will pressure him all day this week could severely limit Manning’s ability to have success. Plus, the disciplined, talented Titan secondary has given up an average of just 220 yards and 0 TDs to QBs the last four weeks, so he won’t find many gaping windows in their coverage to exploit. Use him very cautiously, as it could be a struggle for him in this brutal matchup. His nice track record against the Titans does instill a hint of confidence, however.
Dominic Rhodes (RB, Ind) – Rhodes rushed for 73 yards and 2 TDs, with 4/41 as a receiver in Week Seven. He should start for the banged-up Addai again this week, but it’s going to be a rough go for him against a tough, smothering Titan run defense that has given up an average of only 78 yards and 1 TD to RBs the last four weeks. He lacks a physical O-line to pave the way for him, and the stretch play hasn’t been in the game-plan with Manning’s mobility still not back, so don’t expect a ton of yardage from Rhodes in this challenging matchup. After all, Tennessee has one of the most active D-line’s in the league, and their linebackers can shoot gaps with the best of them. It’ll take a goal-line plunge for him to come through.
Marvin Harrison (WR, Ind) – Harrison came up small in Week Seven, posting 2/11 on 6 targets. With the inconsistency of Indy’s passing game and his bad matchup against a hard-nosed, disciplined Titan pass defense that has permitted an average of just 11/128/0 to WRs the last four weeks, we don’t feel Harrison’s a strong play this week. It’s inevitable that Manning’s going to be pressured quite a bit by Tennessee’s nasty front seven and have trouble finding a groove, so Marv may be limited to just a few catches in his possession role. He got them for 6/87 in his lone outing against the Titans last year, but it’s hard to envision his doing much better than that this time around.
Anthony
Gonzalez (WR, Ind) – Gonzalez was active and effective in Week Seven, mustering
5/72 on 10 targets. Much like the Colt passing game itself, Gonzo is
very hit-or-miss, so we’re not particularly fond of his potential
this week against a rock-solid Titan secondary that has given up an
average of just 11/128/0 to WRs the last four weeks. We foresee
Manning having severe trouble with Tennessee’s dynamic front seven
given the shaky state of Indy’s O-line. Thus, it’s probably not wise
to count on Gonzalez to do much more than minimal damage in this
scary matchup for the Colt offense. The only positive here is that
Indy won’t run it well, so Gonzo could be needed when the Colts
spread the field and get pass-happy.
Indianapolis Defense – Run-stopping missile Bob Sanders
means so much to this defense, and they’re lost without him, plus
they don’t rush the passer well. The Titans will run the ball a lot
in this game, probably with a lot of success, behind an offensive
line that is firing on all cylinders. The ground game is averaging
154.5 yards per game, and when QB Kerry Collins does throw
the ball, he’s usually getting great protection and throwing the
kind of risk-free passes that keep opposing defenses honest and out
of the fantasy scoring column. The Colts are not a recommended play
this week.
Too Risky To Play:
Justin Gage (WR, Ten) – He’s no lock to play this week, although he should, and the Titan offense is all about the running game right now, so Gage is probably too risky to deploy unless you’re desperate. In addition, Indy’s pass defense has given up an average of just 12/138/.3 to WRs the last four weeks, and their scheme doesn’t allow big plays through the air. Forget it because he won’t be making explosive plays down the field in this unfavorable matchup.
Kerry Collins (QB, Ten) – Collins didn’t do much of anything in Week Seven, as he passed for only 123 yards with 0 TDs or INTs and played second fiddle to Tennessee’s two-headed RB monster. With the Titans sure to emphasize their outstanding running game this week, Collins probably won’t be needed to do much throwing or attacking. As a result, he’s off limits for fantasy. He’ll move the chains and manage the game, but that’s about it, so there’s really no upside here at all. The Colt pass defense isn’t easy to throw on either, as they’ve given up an average of just 224 yards and .7 TDs to QBs the last four weeks.
Reaches of the Week:
Bo Scaife (TE, Ten) – Scaife, who’s become a go-to guy of sorts in Tennessee’s limited passing game, posted 3/48 on 5 targets in Week Seven. While the Titans won’t have to throw it much this week, Scaife’s a legit reach candidate because of his excellent rapport with Collins and his nice matchup against a Colt pass defense that has given up an average of 3/31/.3 to TEs the last four weeks. Indy does such a good job of taking away the deep ball and keeping WRs in check that it seems inevitable that Scaife will hurt them underneath and grab several balls, so give him a whirl if you’ve got bye-week issues at the position.
History Report:
AFC South division-mates, these teams met last season in Week Two at Tennessee (22-20, Colts) and Week Seventeen at Indy (16-10, Titans).
Lineup Updates:
- Colt starting RB Joseph Addai (hamstring) didn’t practice Thursday and is considered very questionable to play. Thursday was their first practice for the week, since their game is being played on Monday night. Backup RB Dominic Rhodes would start if Addai can’t play.
Special Teams Report:
Pierre Garcon returned four kicks for 70 yards in Week Seven. This week he should see about five kickoffs come his way. If he returns all of them, he should close in on the century mark against a team that allows about 21 yards per kick return. Keiwan Ratliff is the punt returner, but he didn’t have any returns last week. This week, he faces a Titans coverage unit that allows nearly five yards a return and punts about five or six times a game. Chris Carr is the dual-return man. He had just 47 yards in Week Seven, but was offered up only two chances all game. Carr is averaging 28.2 yards a kick return. But the Colts only allow about 15 yards per return and might offer him only four or so kick return chances this week. Michael Griffin handles short kickoffs, but the Colts don’t normally short kick unless they are working with or against the clock.
Game Prediction:
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