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 Hansen on Strategy: Week Six

by John Hansen
Publisher, FantasyGuru.com
Oct. 8, 2008
 

We wrote somewhere on the site this week how it’s Week Six, and it’s time to make some (somewhat final) determinations on some players and situations. After all, while things can change quickly in the NFL, we’ll wake up one day very soon and the season will be half over already, so it’s time to make some real evaluations. Yes, it’s just about time to say you are what you are right now in the league, so let’s take a team-by-team look at some players and situations.

 

Arizona Cardinals – At this point, we know their secondary is horrible, and it will likely stay at least bad, so while they want to run it a lot, they’ll be playing in shootout after shootout, which is good news for their QB and WRs.

 

Atlanta Falcons – We know it’s a physical running game that can make plays in the passing game. We know that QB Matt Ryan will be very good and is close to being a safe fantasy backup now. We know that Roddy White is a legit #1 NFL WR. I’ve been a fan and advocate of White for two years, but I just didn’t know about Ryan this summer. I know now that Ryan’s not only good enough to keep White’s value up, but also that the pair have excellent chemistry. We know that Michael Turner’s going to do well against at least one-third of the league’s defenses. They are fully committed to their power running game, and their line, while young, can maul.   

 

Baltimore Ravens – We know they will play good defense all year barring injuries, and we also know that RB/FB Le’Ron McClain will be a factor all year. We know that the team will occasionally take the shackles off QB Joe Flacco, but that they won’t every week.

 

Buffalo Bills – We need to learn a little more about their running game, like if the line will start playing up to its potential, and if they’ll commit to it even more, but I’m thinking they’ll do both. We’ve also learned that WR Lee Evans can, in fact, be trusted. We’ve learned that he must be started these days, no questions asked.

 

Carolina Panthers - We’ve learned that this is a team with talent, but that their offense is still a work in progress. But I think it’s safe to say their key guys are pretty solid. We have, however, learned that they won’t just push RB DeAngelo Williams aside. It looked like Jonathan Stewart was taking over the featured role, but at this point, I don’t think they’ll fix something that isn’t broken.

 

Chicago Bears – At this point, it’s safe to say that QB Kyle Orton is pretty decent and that their receiving corps, while lacking a true stud, is pretty darn solid overall, including the TEs. It’s already time to say Matt Forte is a very good NFL back. I was ready to say that after Week One.

 

Cincinnati Bengals – September’s over, so it’s time to say the Bengal offense will struggle all year. The only thing unknown now is whether or not WR Chris Henry can bring some juice and verticality to their offense. Lord knows, Chad Johnson isn’t doing it. We know that Chris Perry isn’t special, so we can only hope he can be solid for us, and we’ve learned that QB Carson Palmer’s going to be a week-to-week and even quarter-to-quarter guy.

 

Cleveland Browns – If you are what you are right now, then the Browns suck. Unless they can find a way to run the ball consistently, they will suck all year. If they somehow find a way to pull the pieces together and get some real and consistent production from RB Jamal Lewis, then they might work themselves out of this funk. Otherwise, they’re screwed. Overall, for NFL purposes, they are screwed.

 

Dallas Cowboys – We know what they are, and it’s very good, but not without some issues, like Terrell Owens’ antics, and the fact that QB Tony Romo’s play seems to be leveling off, if not reverting to previous shaky form. But they are what they are, and it’s still arguably the best in the league for fantasy.

 

Denver Broncos – The Broncos are a passing team; that much is clear. At least for now, they have no real interest in running it consistently. That probably won’t be the case for the whole season, so that brings me to one guy: Ryan Torain. Otherwise, QB Jay Cutler is special, and WR Brandon Marshall is still a beast.

 

Detroit Lions – This one’s a done deal: The Lions are toast. It can’t possibly get any worse, but it can stay this bad all year, which is truly frightening. WR Roy Williams is all over the place and can’t be trusted, and Calvin Johnson’s development is officially being stunted. We did say over and over again that RB Kevin Smith wasn’t special, but the mistake we made was that we believed he’d get the volume he needs to put up solid numbers. Thing is, he’s not proving he deserves or commands more touches.

 

Green Bay Packers – The Packers are just fine with QB Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers isn’t a player without some issues. But if things are going well around him, he can be very productive. The running game is still climbing back to respectability, and assuming their line gets healthier, we should see success.

 

Houston Texans – I had high hopes for the Texans, and while it’s been a little bit of a mess, I still have high hopes. This team is teetering on the brink of offensive fineness, but they still have to pull it out.

 

Indianapolis Colts – The Colts aren’t as good on offense, and it’s questionable if they will every fully return to form. QB Peyton Manning doesn’t look right, and RB Joe Addai doesn’t have enough room to navigate. If you are what you are by now, this is what they are. It looks like it’s going to be a little bit of a struggle all year.  

 

Jacksonville Jaguars – Some people are upset about how I said Maurice Jones-Drew had no downside, which is why I liked him. Well, since he got robbed of a TD in Week One, he should have 4 TDs, putting him well on his way to 10 TDs. That’s not bad. The problem is the OL, and the lack of production from their passing game. At least the line issue is due to in-season injuries, so that couldn’t be foreseen and it is the problem. And at this point, it will remain a problem all year. The only good news is that C Brad Meester will be back soon, which will help.

 

Kansas City Chiefs – RB Larry Johnson is a matchup player. When the matchup is favorable, he’ll do very well. When it’s against one of the top run defenses in the league, he’ll do nothing. So he should be pretty easy to handle going forward. The Chiefs have no QB, yet Dwayne Bowe is still rock solid, and TE Tony Gonzalez is still a worthy starter.

 

Miami Dolphins – At this point, we should be impressed with the Dolphins, especially RB Ronnie Brown. I didn’t feel good about Brown this preseason for obvious reasons, but long-time readers know my affinity for him. He is the old Ronnie Brown, amazingly. Their passing game is going through wideout Greg Camarillo, and a little through TE Anthony Fasano.

 

Minnesota Vikings – The Vikings, surprisingly, don’t really have an identity, but they still do have the best running back in football, so they will eventually find their identity. They are a team that can do some good things in the passing game with Gus Frerotte; they just don’t have the players they need to finish the job right now with Sidney Rice limited. But the positive influence of Frerotte on WR Bernard Berrian is very real.

 

New England Patriots – The Patriots don’t have an identity, either. If RB Laurence Maroney is all that, this is the time to ride him. They’re not riding Maroney because he’s not the guy, so he won’t ever be the guy. He still tends to bounce things outside, and he’s not very explosive. It’s a full blown committee, and Sammy Morris remains their best option. Unfortunately, Morris isn’t nearly as good carrying the load on a team with Matt Cassel starting, and he’s giving up carries to others.  As for Cassel, he’s serviceable, at least. 

 

New Orleans Saints – The Saints would like to sustain offense by running the ball, but they can’t really do it consistently, so this is a passing team. That’s who they are, and that’s who they will continue to be.

 

New York Giants – The Giants are the best team in the NFL. They are near perfect. They run the ball extremely well, and that makes their passing offense nearly unstoppable. Their receiving corps features only one true stud, but overall it’s very, very good. I don’t think Dallas can beat them, so I’m looking at a Giant-Titan Super Bowl. Not exactly a ratings bonanza.

 

New York Jets – The Jets have done some good things in the passing game, but I’m not sure it will continue at the level we’ve seen. They need to run the ball more. Still, with QB Brett Favre, they’ll be just fine.

 

Oakland Raiders – The Raiders are a running team, and they will run it even more with Tom Cable, their former O-line coach, running the offense. They don’t have a passing game.

 

Philadelphia Eagles – I’m a fan of head coach Andy Reid, but his arrogance is apparent. Because of that arrogance, they will continue to throw it about 65% of the time, maybe more. Reid may want to take notice of the fact that the best teams in the league, like the Giants, run the crap out of the ball. But this is good news for their key players because they won’t stop throwing it.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers are a team with issues, and they probably will be all year. But I have not given up on their key players, like Santonio Holmes, not even close. It’s not going to be a prolific offense, but they will make noise more often than not.  

 

San Diego Chargers – For this season, and for his career, QB Philip Rivers is what he is, which is very inconsistent. He’s not going to change, but he’ll at least make 1-2 plays a week. We’ve already seen the best of RB LaDainian Tomlinson, but that doesn’t mean he can’t still be good for fantasy in 2008.

 

Seattle Seahawks – Last year, Seattle was a one-dimensional team; they basically gave up on the run. This year, they have morphed into a running team, and that’s good for RB Julius Jones because he’s been pretty solid. Especially since WR Deion Branch is already hurt again, I don’t think this will change.

 

San Francisco 49ers – The 49ers are a team that will put up solid numbers most weeks, but J.T. O’Sullivan’s flaws are being exposed, which is a concern. Luckily for Frank Gore owners, he’s still a stud and he can get it done despite a less-than-ideal situation around him.

 

St. Louis Rams – The Rams are a very bad team, obviously, but it’s not like guys like QB Marc Bulger, RB Steven Jackson, and WR Torry Holt are stiffs who have never done anything in the NFL. That means they should have their moments, especially Jackson, who looks very good this year.  

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – The Bucs are a run-heavy team that is very limited in the passing game. That won’t change, no matter who is under center.

 

Tennessee Titans – The Titans are also a run-heavy team, very run-heavy, and they’ll throw it just enough to get by. That’s it, play great defense, run it a ton, and throw it just enough.

 

Washington Redskins – The Redskins are for real, and they are a running team. There’s no sense to change that if it’s working, even if their players get more comfortable with the supposed pass-friendly offense. Because they are a running team, however, there will be opportunities for their receivers, similar to the Giants.

 

Second Half Sleepers

While it’s true that you may already be what you appear to be in the NFL this year, it’s also true that some things will change, and some players will emerge. So far this year season there are 2-3 players each week who are the clear pickups of the week. We’ve done a good job giving these players love the week or two before they are the must-haves, so let’s see if we can look a little further in the future and predict some second half surprises.

 

Most of these players will need an injury ahead of them to truly excel, but they are also looking good on their own.

 

Quarterbacks

 

  • Kyle Orton (Chi) – This guy throws a very catchable ball, and he has good touch. Teams are really stacking the box to stop Matt Forte, and they Bears are taking the shackles off Orton and having him throw on first down. He’s done well. As a group, their receiving corps is pretty good, especially the unheralded Rashied Davis.
  • Gus Frerotte (Min) – I don’t see any upside, but I think he could continue to excel if he can get WR Sidney Rice back. His schedule is favorable, which helps.
  • Brodie Croyle (KC) – Now this is a long-shot, but Croyle did look much improved this summer, and he does have a good arm. This is likely his last chance, so he better player with a sense of urgency. He has some weapons, and a favorable schedule.

Running Backs


 

  • Derrick Ward (NYG) – He’s one of the best backup RBs in the league, and isn’t it about time Brandon Jacobs gets dinged up?
     
  • Ryan Torain (Den) – There are a ton of players here vying for time, but it’s clear Selvin Young isn’t going to usually get more than 10 carries, and they loved Torain this spring and summer. It may not be for more than 2-3 games, but he should be a factor here, maybe a big factor. He should be in the mix starting Week Nine.
  • Michael Bush (Oak) – My prediction in the preseason was that Darren McFadden was going to struggle a little, Justin Fargas was going to get hurt, and Bush was going to be needed. That’s basically happened already, and if it continues to be the case, Bush will have a lot of value.
  • Maurice Morris (Sea) – Julius Jones has looked very good, but keep in mind Morris was starting over him before getting hurt; Morris basically beat him out. Things have changed, but Morris should have a role.
  • Cedric Benson (Cin) – Hate to say it, I really do, but his value has soared the last seven days. He ran with a sense of urgency in his Bengal debut, and he hit the hole hard, running North-South. Chris Perry hasn’t done that, and he’s fumbled. If Perry goes down, Benson will be the guy. Maybe he’s learned from his mistakes because, while he’s not special, he can be effective if he simply brings it. Benson’s going to stay involved, for sure.
  • Brandon Jackson (GB) – If Ryan Grant doesn’t kick it into high gear soon, we could see more and more of Jackson, their #2 pick last year. He looks improved.
  • Mewelde Moore (Pit) – He has probably earned more playing time based on his solid showing, and if Willie Parker has issues, he has a ton of value. All he does is produce when he’s on the field.
  • Lorenzo Booker (Phi) – It looks like the Eagles have to suck it up and get him on the field. They brought him in for a reason, and it looks like it’s going to be a struggle to keep Brian Westbrook on the field all year.

Wide Receivers

 

  • Steve Breaston (Ari) – He’s been very reliable, and he can run. If there are more injuries issues here, he will be very productive.
  • Josh Morgan (SF) – Starter Bryant Johnson has leveled off, and the team is committed to him for only 2008. They love Morgan, who would have beaten Johnson out had he not gotten ill. He’s much better now.
  • Brandon Stokley (Den) – I’ve picked him up in a few leagues this week, and I will start him this week against the Jags. He’s playing at a high level, and he can help them in many ways, like starting for Eddie Royal this week.
  • Donnie Avery (Stl) – He’s starting, and he may continue to have a large role even when Drew Bennett is back Why not? He’s raw but he can run, and he is the future.
  • Demetrious Williams (Bal) – He’s a good deep threat, and that’s a big part of their offense. Mark Clayton has given them nothing.
  • Craig Davis (SD) – He’s looked good this year in limited action, and he would start if there are injuries. In fact, he’ll likely start this week for Chris Chambers.

Tight Ends

 

  • Anthony Fasano (Mia) – The passing offense funnels through him and Camarillo, so this production should continue. 
  • Greg Olsen (Chi) – He’s coming on for now for sure, and he has big upside. 
  • Zach Miller (Oak) – He may be coming on now, and he’s a lock to lead them in catches. 
  • Dustin Keller (NYJ) – Right now all three of their TEs have 6 catches, but he has 2 TDs, and he has much more upside. 
  • Bo Scaife (Ten) – I liked him last year as a sleeper, and it didn’t exactly work out. But he’s a go-to guy this year. 
  • Billy Miller (NO – He’s athletic, and he makes plays. If Shockey has more issues, he has value.   

OL Rankings:

Due to popular demand, I’m going to visit the offensive lines periodically this year. I will occasionally bring up some bullet points about the lines.

 

Rank

Team

1

NYG

2

DAL

3

PHI

4

SD

5

MIN

6

TB

7

WAS

8

TEN

9

NE

10

CLE

11

BUF

12

ARI

13

NYJ

14

NO

15

CAR

16

BAL

17

DEN

18

HOU

19

ATL

20

GB

21

MIA

22

IND

23

CHI

24

SEA

25

PIT

26

JAC

27

SF

28

OAK

29

STL

30

DET

31

CIN

31

KC

 

Good Vibes/Bad Vibes
 Let us revisit the vibes for all 32 teams. As usual, there have been a few changes.

 

  • Great Vibes: Broncos, Giants, Cowboys, Redskins
  • Good Vibes: Panthers, Bills, Eagles, Cardinals, 49ers, Titans, Jets, Saints, Bears, Texans
  • Decent Vibes: Chargers, Packers, Colts, Vikings, Bucs, Falcons, Seahawks,   Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers , Ravens
  • Shaky Vibes: Bengals, Jaguars, Chiefs
  • Bad Vibes: Lions, Raiders, Rams, Browns.

Teams Upgraded: Bears, Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers, Texans

Teams Downgraded: Chargers, Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens

 

NFL Short Cuts:

After watching every play from every game this past weekend, and talking to some people who have broken down the games on film this week, including Greg Cosell, here are some random thoughts from last week.

 

  • The Bengals looked better, but they still aren’t throwing the ball down the field. They did not throw one ball down the field last week. They may be over-protective with QB Carson Palmer, who is still hurt. He lacks confidence in Chad Johnson. WR Chris Henry is their best deep receiver, so he could be an X factors. 
  • The Falcons are physical running team with a multidimensional running game. They are very physical up front, yet they do a lot of things in the running game. 
  • Falcon QB Matt Ryan is very smart and very aware, but his arm strength is so-so. He throws the ball better in-between the hash area. 
  • The Bears are using RB Matt Forte a lot more in the passing game, using shifting and motion. I think they will start working veteran RB Kevin Jones into the mix more so they don’t over-extend Forte.   
  • Bear QB Kyle Orton is looking more and more like a pro QB, he’s throwing the ball and making all the throws, and he’s showed poise. It’s still a work in progress, but they have some hope with Orton. He throws a nice ball with nice touch.
  • Bear KR Devin Hester does not look the same returning kicks this year, not even close. He doesn’t seem as dangerous and decisive, and he actually looks a little slow. 
  • Falcon WR Roddy White has learned a lot over the years; he has big-time NFL receiving tools. Ryan and White have clearly developed chemistry. White used to be known as a guy who could just run right, but not now. 
  • You have to be impressed with the way Viking QB Gus Frerotte has played. He’s willing to throw the ball. But they may be drifting a little too far from the run. He’s throwing well, looking down the gun barrel, and taking some shots. He tends to struggle with accuracy, but he has a good arm and can make big time throws on occasional.  But they may be enamored with throwing it too much against defenses stacked up against the run. 
  • Viking TE Visanthe Shiancoe is very athletic; he can run. Now if only he could catch he might actually be a serious fantasy force.   
  • The Redskins are very impressive, obviously. Through their 4-game winning streak, they have 138 called runs and 138 called passes. That would be balance.   
  • Redskin RB Clinton Portis used to be a breakaway open field running, and now he’s a tough and physical finisher. He’s a grinder, and he’s one of the toughest players in the league, at any position.   
  • Buc RB Warrick Dunn is a little more explosive than Earnest Graham, and they need explosiveness in their offense. That might explain his heavy workload behind Graham. Dunn, too, can still play at a high level.   
  • Texan QB Matt Schaub is a superior player to Sage Rosenfels, who can play but is too inconsistent. But if you have Schaub, you’d better have Sage.   
  • Miami is extremely limited offensively, but they do a good job with route combinations, and they run routes to break down coverage schemes to get guys open. That bodes well for Greg Camarillo, who is a big factor for them.   
  • Dolphin RB Ronnie Brown has looked very good, good change of direction, and he puts his foot in the ground and cuts laterally. He changed on a dime a couple of times and changed directions incredibly well last week. 
  • Texan RB Steve Slaton is getting better this week. He can have 20+ touches and be their guy. 
  • Miami was very physical against the run last week; they were excellent against the run. They play hard, and they are physical. It’s not an easy day when you play the Dolphins. 
  • Colt QB Peyton Manning is still a little antsy, still missing throws. Manning does not look right with his knee. He makes a few good throws, and then he fails to make the throws he usually makes, no problem. He’s an uncomfortable player right now. 
  • The Colt running game is very erratic, they aren’t running it enough because they’re not running it that well. 
  • Raven RB Le’Ron McClain is very versatile; he can line up at RB and FB, he is a good receiver, he’s just a good football player. 
  • Giant TE Kevin Boss is being used as a blocker all day, so forget him as a receiver. 
  • Denver’s run defense was really good last week; their LBs played very fast and physical. They appear to have fixed up that run defense.   
  • The Jags can’t find any rhythm on offense simply because they can’t run the ball, and they won’t be able to run it consistently all year. QB David Garrard is not the problem. 
  • Jag WR Mike Walker has quick feet, knows how to set up defenders, and he has good hands. He’s a bigger receiver and a good receiver. But he did get hurt.   
  • The Jags can’t rush the QB well at all. They don’t blitz most weeks. They are not a pressure defense.   
  • It was an incredible and gutsy performance by Packer QB Aaron Rodgers last week. He was not going to play Sunday morning, so he had to gut it out just to play. He’s a timing and rhythm passer, and he has consistent accuracy when he can plant and throw. If he does not get a clear picture, he holds on to the ball.   
  • Packer RB Ryan Grant ran hard again last week; he’s close to being back. 
  • Seahawk RB Julius Jones has run well this year. He’s not explosive, but he’s a decent downhill seam runner. He has run really well this year, and has hit the gaps pretty well.   
  • The Seahawks defensive performance last week was terrible; they were killed physically and tactically. They were very passive and reactive, not proactive. Look for that to NOT be the case this week at home. 
  • The league seems to be moving back to more balance with more running, and the Eagles might be behind the times a little bit by throwing it so much. 
  • The 49er offense struggles with protection, and QB J.T. O’Sullivan holds the ball, so Philly will have a lot of sacks this week; this could be a 7-8 sack game. O’Sullivan’s lack of height seems to be a problem. His flaws are showing a little more each week. 
  • Cowboy QB Tony Romo is leveling off. There’s an undisciplined aspect to his game, and he still makes too many mistakes. 
  • The Cards did a great job getting Kurt Warner back on track last week, he did a lot of quick drops, they got the ball out and prevent Warner from getting hit. 
  • SD’s defense was horrible last week, and they have been horrible most of the season. They have been soft, vanilla; they haven’t challenged offenses. 
  • Patriot QB Matt Cassel is getting a little better, but the Patriots don’t have a whole lot on offense. They don’t have an identity on offense, and they’re going week-to-week trying to win that given game. There’s no stabilizing factor. 
  • Charger QB Philip Rivers is a guy who week-to-week; you’re not sure what you’re going to get from him every Sunday.
  • Giant QB Eli Manning is a very comfortable QB. They are dictating the pace of the game, and they are throwing when they want to. They can beat you any way they want. They never get out of their comfort zone, and their offense is both balanced and explosive. 
  • Giant WR Domenik Hixon can play. He has a natural instinct to come back to the football, and he’s fast as hell, plus he runs good routes. He could be a dynasty league sleeper. 
  • You know the Giants are on a major roll when QB David Carr enjoys success on the field, as he did last week. Now that’s a special team. 
  • The Browns have to run the ball, and they have to stay with the run. They can’t ask QB Derek Anderson to go back and throw it too much. 

Near Misses:

  • Giant WR Amani Toomer just missed a TD, getting stopped just before the goal.
  • Giant WR Domenik Hixon just missed a second TD.
  • Panther WR Steve Smith failed to haul in two potential TD, one on a deep ball, but neither were sure-things. One was a deep ball for 65 yards.
  • Seahawk WR Deion Branch dropped a TD.
  • Charger WR Chris Chambers just missed a 2nd TD.
  • Bengal RB Chris Perry has a TD called back, and then just missed hauling a TD reception.
  • Charger WR Vincent Jackson had a pass thrown to him in the endzone that was broken up.
  • Texan WR Andre Johnson had a pass thrown to him in the endzone that was broken up.
  • Patriot TE Ben Watson just missed a TD.
  • Patriot RB Sammy Morris just missed a TD, but got stopped at the 1.
  • Titan WR Justin McCareins almost scored.

Rotobowl Update

Through Five weeks, I’m still the #1 team overall out of 400 so far at 5-0 and with the most possible “Victory Points” awarded for being in the top half of the league in scoring each week. I started this section because I thought it would be interesting to see how my team stacked up to Adam Caplan’s, who was also at the draft. It’s getting less interesting by the week, since he’s slumping a little bit (the loss of Brady killed him). 

 

Here are our rosters as of today. This is a PPR league in which you can start 2 Flex players (RB/WR/TE).

 

My Team:

QBs: Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Jason Campbell

RBs: Brian Westbrook, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Michael Bush

WRs: Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings. Dwayne Bowe, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis

TEs: Chris Cooley, John Carlson

PK: Rob Bironas

DT: Philadelphia

 

Caplan’s Team:

QBs: Kurt Warner, Matt Cassel

RBs: Frank Gore, Kevin Smith, Chris Johnson, Felix Jones, Justin Fargas, Derrick Ward

WRs: Santonio Holmes, Joey Galloway, Sidney Rice, Eddie Royal, Devin Hester, Kevin Curtis, and Hank Baskett

TEs: Jason Witten, Bo Scaife

Ks: Mason Crosby

Ds: Philadelphia, Baltimore

 

Recent Moves:

I only dropped PK David Akers for Rob Bironas, who I drafted, this week. Caplan dropped Robert Royal for Bo Scaife.

 

Week Three Review: I got lucky with Adrian Peterson doing nothing, or else I would have lost, although I was still the 4th-highest scoring team in the league.

Other than Greg Jennings, my WRs really let me down, and I sat Felix Jones again. My star this week was Chris Cooley. Honestly, there is luck to fantasy. For example, someone took Vernon Davis right in front of me in the 10th round, and I was ready to roll with Davis’ upside over Cooley’s. I drafted very well, but that’s an example of luck factoring into success. 

 

Week Five Tally:

 

My Team: 149.2

Caplan’s Team:  141.2

 

Season Tally:

My Team: 857.10

Caplan’s Team: 716.85

 

Hansen OFF Football

Since last week I tackled one of the most pressing issues in America these days – Internet spam – I figured I might as well take on other small problem.

 

I think it’s dangerous for me to write about the growing economic situation in America and abroad. It’s dangerous, for one, because I really don’t know what the hell I’m talking about when it comes to economics. It’s also dangerous because I own a business that asks consumers to fork over their hard-earned money – money most people have less of these days – for fantasy football information and advice. It felt odd to say that to people in 1995, when I started, and it feels a little odd to write that on October 7, 2008, given what’s going on.

 

These are scary times, but I’m actually not very concerned for myself. I’m fortunate to have gotten into a growing industry at damn near its genesis, and I’m fortunate because fantasy sports are just a close second to porn in terms of its appeal online. Although tempting, the porn industry really wasn’t an option for me.   

I don’t consider myself a shrewd businessman, not even close. I just have common sense, and the most important thing of all: substance.

 

Maybe Wall Street and Corporate America should take the cue from a little guy like me. One of my problems with these financial and Wall Street people is a lack of substance. I’m all substance. I’m about working, hustling, and paying your dues and only then being rewarded, and with that comes substance. I’m not about building up a company so it has a fake value and then selling it to another company that is simply looking to pump it up even more in fake value and sell it again. I’ve been approached several times by venture capitalists and the like, and once they meet me, they head for the hills because they quickly find out that my tolerance for BS is very low, and because I’m all about substance. They want no parts of that. If you’re one of these people, don’t ever call me.

 

I think it’s dangerous on many levels to do anything in business when your primary motivation is to make money. Some financial people may think that’s the dumbest thing they’ve ever heard, but I’m doing okay here on 10/8/08, and maybe they’re not. The fantasy sports industry has been re-invented several times by “business” people since I started this site, yet here I am, rolling with the exact same business model as when it started in 1995. You know, the one that worked.

 

I didn’t need anyone’s help then, and I don’t need it now, but like I said, I’m not a very savvy businessman. I’ll admit it would be nice to make a quick buck as long as I didn’t do it in an underhanded way, but since I’m not sharp or sleazy enough to essentially pull money out of thin air, I have to actually work for and earn everything I bring in. And I earn it by offering a product that is superior to the competition’s, and one that is constantly improving, with little – or in our actual case – no price increase. Have you ever heard this from a “businessman”? “I’m never going to raise my price.” I just said it.

 

Basically, I never take anything for granted and I never assume our customers will remain our customers; I try to make sure they have a compelling reason to continue to be our customers. It’s not that hard, really. More people in business should try this approach, as opposed to assuming everything will be okay, even if they are lazy and complacent.

 

Now, I don’t think the current situation we’re in is all Wall Street’s fault. People are really dropping the ball in America, and it’s mainly due to stupidity. Some people are simply losers, but most of them are just dense. They have absolutely no vision or foresight. Too many people in this country are spoiled, shallow, and have little or no fear of consequence. Yes, people are losing jobs and that’s tough, but the real problem is, quite simply, people are living well beyond their means. Again, this isn’t that hard to figure out, and I figured it out a long, long time ago. If I can’t afford something, I either do without, or I find a way to afford it, period.

 

I just can’t consciously overextend myself, yet that’s what a large portion of Americans are doing and have been doing for far too long. I like to make these big picture predictions to my wife, and I’m usually right. About two years ago I told her the people in our generation, late 30s, early 40s say, are going to be screwed in 20 years because they have no concept of saving money, and they’re too caught up today in keeping up with the Jones. And forget about people much younger than we are; they possess even less of a clue.

 

On the surface, given recent events, it would seem that I was on the right track, and that I would be proven right, well beforehand. But now I’m thinking the current economic crisis is actually a good thing (at least for people not close to retirement), and it may actually cause my prediction to be incorrect. It’s a harsh reality check, and economic cleansing, if you will. Some people will be hurt, but maybe now people will actually realize they have to save for a rainy day because a monsoon can come at any time. I don’t want to say this current situation will have a similar residual effect as the Great Depression did for those who lived through it, but something in that ballpark.  

 

I’m no historian or economist, but from what I can gather, the Great Depression was actually pretty great for the country. Things certainly went well for the next 50 some odd years after the dust had settled. The country gained a lot of things from it, most importantly, perspective. I’ll gladly accept 50 more good years, and then we’ll take it from there.

 

Here’s hoping history repeats itself…again.


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