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2008's Top Backups
By John Hansen
Publisher, FantasyGuru.com
Published, July 18, 2008
Based on how fantasy went down last year, you might want to focus on this article more than anything else. I mean, who really cares about drafting the league’s “starters” when they’re more likely than not to get hurt, lose their jobs, or just flat-out suck and go down as wasted picks anyway?
I’m only kidding, of course. Kind of.
If you don’t fully understand the importance of knowing who the league’s key backup players are for fantasy football, it’s time to find a new hobby. For the rest of you – i.e. all of you – it’s time once again to break down this year’s top options.
Quarterbacks
Note: Players who are currently in position battles and have a legitimate chance to open the season #1 on their depth charts have been excluded.
Kurt Warner (Ari) – Warner needs to be here because it’s going to be very hard for him to open the season #1 on the depth chart. However, if Matt Leinart struggles early in the season, Warner will likely get the nod. So not only is he clearly the best backup option in the league – he was, after all, the 5th best fantasy QB in the league the final 12 games of 2007 with 24 TD passes and 3019 yards – he’s also got the best chance to see the field early in the year. Warner proved he could still play at a very high level in 2007, and he’s dieing to get back out on the field. He offers fantasy players a rare opportunity to get a player who could easily be a top-7 fantasy performer at his position as late as the 15th round (around 175th overall).
Sage Rosenfels (Hou) – It’s very fair to say that, after Warner, Rosenfels is the best backup QB in the league – and he might even be in a better situation than the veteran 2-time league MVP. Rosenfels completed an impressive 64% of his passes last year, and his 15 TD strikes was pretty strong considering he only was 14th in the league in PPG, and he played in only 9 games (and started fewer than that). On a team with an offensive line and running game that should be improved, and with an impressive corps of receivers, Rosenfels could actually be worth starting if Matt Schaub goes down – which brings me to another point: Rosenfels is playing behind a starter who proved to be pretty brittle last year.
Brady Quinn (Cle) – First of all, let me say I was a Brady Quinn supporter last spring, and I still am today. But let’s put Quinn in proper perspective. Many fantasy fans, and specifically many Brown fans, seem to be ready to cast Derek Anderson aside and roll with Quinn. But ask yourself the following question: would the Browns have gone 10-6 as they did and would Quinn have accounted for 32 TDs and 3787 yards passing (as Anderson did) if the former Golden Domer started all 16 games? The answer to both questions is “hells no,” so let’s not anoint Quinn the man in Cleveland just yet. Of course, Quinn may be the future, and they should give him a chance if Anderson reverts to previous form, plus this is a very good situation. So while I’m not ready to turn the page on the Anderson era in Cleveland, you do have to recognize how Brady is one of the more intriguing backup options in the league at this position. For what it’s worth, he did look strong in the preseason last year. I think, if the line holds up as well as it should, and if Jamal Lewis doesn’t fall off a cliff and remains the identity of this offense, Quinn will be an effective distributor in this offense, and pretty solid for fantasy.
Charlie Batch (Pit) – Batch the player as far from exciting, but he’s a savvy pro who knows the system and the personnel, and it’s a damn good offense in Pittsburgh under Bruce Arians. The last time he made a real start for Ben Roethlisberger, back in Week One of 2006, Batch tossed 3 TD passes and he would likely be good for 20+ should Big Ben (God forbid) go down early in the season. I’m not all that into listing him here this high because there’s not much upside, but the guy’s in a good spot and he can take advantage if called upon.
J.P. Losman (Buf) – Losman is not a happy man this year, and he’s definitely on his way out in Buffalo. He’s simply not consistent enough and he didn’t pan out as a #1 pick, that much is clear, but his high-end skills remain. I fully expect Trent Edwards to take a step forward this year due to an upgraded receiving corps (granted, only slightly upgraded) and what should be a more versatile and dynamic rushing attack. But if Edwards gets hurt or regresses, it’s Losman who may take advantage of an improved situation in Buffalo, and he’d do so behind a pretty good offensive line. You know he’ll be launching numerous aerial assaults to his boy Lee Evans, so he has upside if thrust back into the starting lineup.
Matt Moore (Car) – He does have some mechanical issues and he’s not nearly ready in terms of the mental aspects of the game, but Moore stands out physically and talent-wise as a legit prospect, and he may be considered the future of the franchise right now. If so, you have to feel decent about his chances should Jake Delhomme suffer another injury or prove to not yet be over his elbow deal. Moore was an undrafted free agent last year and wasn’t even with the team last summer, yet he was able to complete 70% and 62% of his passes in extensive action late in the season against Seattle and Tampa, two good defenses. And with a very intriguing supporting cast around him, he could surprise if forced to start.
Kevin Kolb (Phi) – Trust me on this one: The Eagles love Kolb. They did when they drafted him, of course, and 15 months later, they still do. Kolb has flashed solid accuracy and great leadership in the OTAs, and he’s shown a knack for using all of his options in the passing game, which is a must in head coach Andy Reid’s pass-happy system. That’s why they drafted him, so he’s panning out so far. He’s already moved into the #2 spot, so don’t be surprised to see him have success if Donovan McNabb goes down yet again. On the downside, veteran A.J. Feeley could get the call if the youngster proves to be not quite ready to lead this offense.
Jim Sorgi (Ind) – Starter Peyton Manning hasn’t missed a start due to an injury in 10 years, so don’t be surprised if no one mentions Sorgi’s name until late December, if anyone does at all. But he’s a pretty good player they are very comfortable with, and if starting he will almost certainly have success in this excellent situation.
Brad Johnson (Dal) – His age is now officially determined by carbon dating, but if Tony Romo goes down it’s hard to see Johnson completely failing behind a very good line, and with a very good supporting cast. Johnson can not longer make all the throws, but he’ll certainly be able to get the ball to TE Jason Witten underneath, and he won’t kill Terrell Owens’ value. If he’s the guy for an extended period of time, he’ll be worth having for depth and/or spot-starting duty.
Mark Brunell (NO) – He didn’t look washed up last he played in 2006, we’ll give him that. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but he went to New Orleans for a reason: this is a pretty good team and he’s a comparable player to starter Drew Brees. If Brees goes down and the running game is working, Brunell should be okay, since he can certainly still command an offense and get the ball to this team’s various weapons, especially wideout Marques Colston and RB Reggie Bush.
Billy Volek (SD) – He’s a gunslinger who’s not afraid to put the ball up and put it up deep, plus starter Philip Rivers is coming off a serious knee injury, so Volek needs to be mentioned early in the backup QB conversation. Surely, you didn’t forget that sick run he had in 2004, when he tossed 18 TD passes in only six games?
Trent Green (Stl) – I certainly love the fit being reunited with OC Al Saunders and in an offense that Green previously played at a pro bowl level in – I’m just not sure the guy can stay on the field if he’s called upon. There’s optimism regarding their offensive line, but if the injuries pile up again, and if Green is under center, he may be knocked down for the count quickly. He has potential if he remains upright and conscious, but he’s strictly a guy to pick up during the season if he’s the starter and is avoiding disaster while putting up decent numbers.
Todd Collins (Was) – Collins was more about NFL good than fantasy good, but he was pretty darn impressive last year, leading the team to an unexpected playoff berth. He did also average 222 passing yards in his four games, which was decent. It remains to be seen how he’ll react in the new offense, but he’s a veteran who’s been around the block, and he’ll mainly hand the ball off, anyway. Considering how impressive with how he handled himself he was last week, his demeanor, his poise, and how he knew where to go with the ball, he’d likely be solid if needed again in 2008.
Shaun Hill/J.T. O'Sullivan (SF) – A lot of 49er fans seem to be enamored with Hill, but that’s like loving Vinny Testaverde because the alternative is Dave Carr. Fact is, while Hill showed he knows where to throw the ball, and the ball came out of his hand quickly and with accuracy, he’s got a bad arm, and he’s probably not an NFL starting QB. On the other hand, he did show an ability to move the offense, and Mike Martz is here now, so he could be serviceable if he’s the guy. Complicating matters, though, is the presence of O’Sullivan, who was brought in because he knows Martz’ offense better than Hill and starter Alex Smith. The team has spoken positively about O’Sullivan, but Hill is probably still the better bet to get a shot if Smith falters. But this is a battle that will play out in camp and possibly all year.
Brian Griese (TB) – Although youngster Luke McCown showed some game and promise last year, the team felt the need to acquire Griese because he’s an experienced veteran who knows the system. Should Jeff Garcia get hurt, Griese will be able to step right in and there’s a decent chance the offense wouldn’t miss a beat. Griese had some good moments starting for the Bears last year, at times showing a willingness to stand tall and strong in the pocket in the face of the pass rush (not always the case in his career). But this is a run-oriented offense, and their receiving corps is bad, so he’s a low-end guy all the way.
Kerry Collins (Ten) – Collins will always be able to throw the pill all around the field, but he’s as mobile as statue, and he’s somehow found a way to throw only 1 TD pass in his last 170 attempts over the course of the last two years. He’s at least a decent veteran insurance policy for the young and still shaky Vince Young.
Patrick Ramsey (Den) – Who know how he’d react as the starter if Jay Cutler went down, but before Steve Spurrier ruined his career in Washington, Ramsey was a good prospect with a very live arm. Denver has starting exploring a contract extension with the 2009 unrestricted free agent because they like his repertoire of skills and his positive influence on Cutler. There are some nice weapons here, so he could do surprisingly well if called upon.
Damon Huard (KC) – We pretty much know what to expect from Huard at this point. When things are going well for this offense (i.e. when Larry Johnson is running effectively), Huard can generally stay ahead of the downs and get the ball to TE Tony Gonzalez, so he’s decent. One problem, though: if starter Brodie Croyle soils the bed, the Chiefs may roll with youngster Tyler Thigpen, who they like.
Seneca Wallace (Sea) – Back in 2006, when Wallace got some starts for an injured Matt Hasselbeck, he was actually decent, accounting for 8 TDs in a four game stretch. He hasn’t seen much action as a passer since, but he’s focused on the quarterback position and he is still the #2. Due to his running and passing, if Hasselbeck does down, if Hasselbeck goes down, he’d likely be serviceable.
Cleo Lemon (Jac) – The veteran Lemon was brought in over backup Quinn Gray, and he’ll be the #2 behind David Garrard. Lemon has a good arm and he can run, so he’s similar to Garrard. But he’s not as efficient, so don’t expect fireworks if Garrard has trouble staying healthy, which has been the case. Still, on a team with a good line, running game, and upgraded receiving corps, Lemon has a chance to be decent, especially since he’s showed a propensity for sneaking the ball into the endzone on the ground.
Brian Brohm (GB) – Brohm has more upside than a lot of the guys on this list, but he’s a complete unknown. Starter Aaron Rodgers has just as many starts, of course, with zero, but at least Rodgers has been in the system a couple of years. Brohm considered NFL-ready as far as rookies go, and he’s grasped Green Bay’s offensive system quickly this spring, so he appears ready to assume the backup role with training camp. If Rodgers succumbs to the pressure and struggles, it’s certainly possible that he could emerge as the starter at some point in 2008. If so, he definitely has potential given the strong system and supporting cast, so even though he’s very unproven, he deserves to be listed here.
Brooks Bollinger (Min) – He doesn’t have much of an arm, and he’s a smaller quarterback, but Bollinger is actually pretty decent. He can move around well, and he can be a scrappy player who overachieves at times. The Vikes did try to upgrade their #2 spot in the off-season, for one trying to trade for Sage Rosenfels, but they will roll with Bollinger, barring a surprise acquisition. So if Tarvaris Jackson gets hurt, Bollinger is who they’d turn to, and this is a pretty good spot for quarterback who has a shaky skill set. They’ll run the ball a ton, and there are some weapons here to take advantage of. If he’s the guy for an extended period of time, he might be okay, but he’ll still deserve to be listed amongst the skank pool of available QBs in most larger or competitive leagues.
Running Backs
Note: For the most part, I avoided listing players who aren’t starters but are expected to have fairly significant roles in 2008. A good example would be Viking RB Chester Taylor, who is clearly the #2, but should be poised to receiver 8-10 touches per week.
Sammy Morris (NE) – It may not fair to list him here, since he’ll have an expansive role, but he is certainly the “backup” to Laurence Maroney, and it’s worth listing him here and this high on the list just to make a point: Morris may be the most valuable backup at this position. Granted, his upside if the starter goes down isn’t explosive, but he has legitimately strong value no matter what, even if Maroney is as healthy as a horse. It’s been written so many other places on this site, but Morris would have been a top-30 fantasy back if healthy all year, due mostly to his clear role as the goal line guy, but also because the team appears willing to let him carry the load for significant periods of time at times. He can be a sustaining runner, a goal line weapon, and also a receiving threat, and you have to love his situation on the Patriots, who will score 50+ TDs again in 2008.
ReShard Mendenhall (Pit) – I like Mendenhall a lot, but the closer we get to the start of the season, the more I think he’ll have a smaller role than I expected when he was drafted. Of course, hopes are high right after the draft, but the reality is that Willie Parker is the starter and should carry the load. Mendenhall should get some carries each week, of course, and with Najeh Davenport released, he could even emerge as the 3rd down and goal line back, so there are several scenarios in which he’s helping fantasy owners. The most attractive one for Mendenhall fans has Parker going down with a serious injury. If that happens, even though I’m starting to think Mendenhall will need some time in the pros before he’s truly ready to excel, he’s definitely talented enough to take advantgae of such a favorable situation. If he adjusts quickly, his upside with Parker out of the picture is massive.
Derrick Ward (NYG) – Since starter Brandon Jacobs takes on more contact than a friendly Las Vegas stripper, it’s almost a lock that Ward will get some starts in at some point in 2008. And he looked damn good last year providing the team with a power running game it desires. Second year back Ahman Bradshaw is a heck of a player, but he’s not a back who’ll step into Jacobs’ role if he goes down, and that’s likely why the Giants re-signed Ward. That, and Ward averaged a nice 4.8 YPC last year and performed at nearly a Pro Bowl level for about half a season last year. If you draft Jacobs, you need to invest a pick in Ward, and he’s a wise option for depth even if you don’t. Hopefully, the backfield picture will be clearer in August after they release veteran Rueben Droughns.
Pierre Thomas (NO) – Thomas has been covered Ad nauseam on the site, so let me reiterate his potential in 2008. If veteran Deuce McAlister has issues with his two reconstructed knees, then Thomas could easily receive 10+ carries per game, and possibly the bulk of the goal line carries. But it’s also very important to point out that, if Reggie Bush gets hurt then Thomas could also carve a significant niche. Keep in mind he hauled in a whopping 12 receptions in a Week Seventeen start last year, so he can offer a lot in the passing game. That’s two paths to potential fantasy glory for the intriguing Thomas, who has some power, zuzu, and receiving skills. It seems inevitable that he’ll make an impact this year; it’s just a question of how much of an impact.
Deshaun Foster (SF) – No more will fantasy owners have to suffer though sleepless nights wondering who the handcuff to Frank Gore is between scrubs Michael Robinson and Maurice Hicks. We know the deal now, it’s Foster, who became one of the league’s best backup running backs upon signing on the dotted line with the 49ers. Foster, too, should see the field a bit alongside Gore to keep the stud fresh. He’s on the downward arc of his career already, but he’s still got some power, some juice, and some receiving skills to offer the 49ers. Most importantly, he brings some clarification to a question that has mystified fantasy owners for two years: who do you draft to protect your investment in Gore?
Fred Jackson (Buf) – Jackson’s also been covered all over the site this summer, so I’ll keep this entry brief. After spending a day at Orchard Park and talking to Bill insiders and starter Marshawn Lynch himself, it’s obvious Jackson will have a large role, mainly as a receiving threat, so he has value now. But it’s also pretty clear he’d be their main back if Lynch missed time, as he was late last year. They have a pair of bigger backs in Dwayne Wright and rookie Xavier Omon, but they really like Jackson, and who can blame them? Jackson showed some serious receiving skills, and he brings something else to the table the others don’t: he has big-play ability. He’s a brilliant pick later in drafts, especially in a PPR league, and especially if you own Lynch.
Chris Brown (Hou) – Yeah, he’ll go down like Bugs Bunny slides off the seat in the airplane gremlin episode (now that’s an old-school reference), but Brown can also make rushing for 100+ yards look easy. Like back in Week One last year, when he trounced the solid Jag defense for 175 yards on the ground (9.2 per carry), off the bench no less. For the season, he averaged a nice 4.6 YPC, so at 27 he can still play. He’s the guy after Ahman Green, a huge injury risk in his own right, so don’t be surprised if Brown can do something for you in ’08. He’s a classic example of a guy you can’t rely on for a whole season – but someone who could carry your ass for 3-4 weeks.
Ladell Betts (Was) – He’s perennially on the list, but for a reason: he’s a good back. If you’re just getting into the NFL, let me clue you in on how good he can be: in his final six games of 2006, while starting for the injured Clinton Portis, Betts was the 4th best fantasy back in the land, rushing for an impressive 770 yards at a 4.9 YPC clip. He’s getting older now at 29, and he did very little last year, but he’s still only a Portis injured away from not only being relevant, but possibly being a fantasy savior. In addition, the switch to a west coast scheme could help him, since he’s a quality receiver out of the backfield, a more natural one than Portis, in fact.
Ricky Williams (Mia) – It might not be fair to list Williams because he’ll have a large role this year, especially early in the season, but he is still the backup, and the starter if Ronnie Brown has issues returning from his knee injury. It took only 6 carries to knock him out for the season last year after being out of the league in 2006, but he’s healthy now and seems poised to make a splash, if not a tidal wave. He’s up there are 31, but he’s also a physical freak of nature who doesn’t have a ton of tread on the tires, and someone who has looked remarkably good this off-season. On a team that will run the ball a ton, he’s clearly one of the more interesting backups at the position.
Warrick Dunn (TB) – If someone can actually pinpoint a drop-off in his play I’d like the details because I still don’t see it. Last year was a tough season, for sure, but Dunn can still play, and now he goes to a team that is pretty conservative by nature and loves to pound the rock. Dunn knows the system and saw ample time with the first-team offense while Earnest Graham was skipping workouts. Graham got his deal, but it was actually comparable to Dunn’s contract, which is revealing. Maybe he’s no longer capable of truly carrying the load, but don’t underestimate one of the true good guys in the league if Graham is out of the mix (I’m expecting zero from Caddy Williams this year until proven otherwise).
Andre Hall/Ryan Torain (Den) – Ah, yes, the dreaded Bronco running back situation and the fickle nature of head coach Mike Shanahan. It’s a pain in the ass to deal with, but it must be done, since someone could emerge at any point and put up big fantasy numbers. The best guess here is that Hall – who wrapped up the OTAs as the #2 – gets the first crack off the bench if Selvin Young gets hurt. He’s been in the system for a year and since he was actually pretty darn impressive last year, averaging an impressive 4.9 YPC and showing good speed and a running style reminiscent of a bowling ball. Torain is a wild card. He has the skills to be a back who gets a significant number of carries in the NFL, and he was drafted by Denver because his physical makeup fits their scheme well. But he’s definitely behind Young and Hall, plus veteran Michael Pittman could factor into this mix (plus anyone else within a 90 mile radius of Denver). But later in the season, he could emerge. In fact, he probably will, if for only a few games.
Ray Rice (Bal) – While it remains to be seen if Rice can hold up and excel as a lead back for a full NFL season, there’s little doubt that he has what it takes to produce for a solid stretch of games if needed. If Willis McGahee falls to an injury, the scrappy Rice, a true “football player,” will be needed, and he’ll start. He’ll also have a role as a changeup and quite possibly a 3rd down back, so he’s worth having on your roster even if you don’t already have McGahee. Even though this isn’t an ideal situation, I have confidence in Rice simply because I cannot conjure of the image of him failing.
Kenny Watson (Cin) – There is a logjam here, no doubt, but as of right now, Watson is the guy. Second year back Kenny Irons is an interesting player for sure, but he’s coming off a serious knee injury and has a long way to go if he hopes to make an impact this year, plus Chris Perry was hurt coming out of the womb. They also have DeDe Dorsey, but so far I’ve left out the most important point: Watson was excellent last year. Watson has good downhill instincts. He’s not explosive, but he runs with patience and vision. He’s also a good receiver who can chip in as a receiver. Many fill-in backs eventually get exposed over the long haul, but I really didn’t see that with him last year, so he gets my enthusiastic vote as the guy to target after Rudi Johnson, who by the way has a lot to prove on the heels of his dreadful 2007 season.
Brandon Jackson (GB) – Jackson was a little a little slow off the mark, to say the least. Drafted in the 2nd round to be their guy, he was far from an impact player in 2007. But he’s made significant progress this off-season, and you have to recognize how he was drafted because he was considered a good fit for their scheme in every way – and how Ryan Grant has missed all the team’s OTAs and is poised to officially begin a holdout. Jackson will have a role no matter what, and if the bad vibes with Grant continue, Jackson could have a very large role. He’s definitely one of those players no one is talking about now, yet could be a hot sleeper late in the summer.
Jason Wright (Cle) – Wright’s an easy selection to make. If Jamal Lewis gets hurt, he’s the starter, and he’s a good enough back to put up solid numbers in what is a very good situation all-around. It’s a top-notch line, and a serious commitment to the run, so you better snap him up if you draft Lewis, and consider him late no matter what.
Dominic
Rhodes (Ind) – His 2007 season in Oakland
went off about as well as a screening of The Love Guru to
members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, but
Rhodes is back in his comfort zone in Indy, and I have to assume he
will quickly leapfrog Kenton Keith and settle in as Joe
Addai’s backup. Keith was solid last year, but he’s got some
off-the-field issues, and Rhodes is a sharp veteran who knows the
offense like the back of his hand. He’s also no slouch, so while
Keith’s presence is a nuisance, a late pick must be invested in
Rhodes if you draft Addai, and it’s not the worst idea in the world
Michael Bush (Oak) – I have to put him on the list, even though he should have a role as the short-yardage/goal line guy because he’s technically only 3rd on the depth chart. But how often do we see teams have to go three deep at this position over the course of a season? We see it a lot, so Bush could easily have a lot more value than anyone expects later this season. He’s completely healthy, and all reports on him this spring/summer have been very positive, so he’s certainly worth a late pick.
Maurice Morris (Sea) – He certainly deserves to be on the list, and it does look like the team is planning on him being a clear backup/change-of-pace, as opposed to someone who will seriously challenge Julius Jones for the lion’s share of the carries.
Chris Henry (Ten) – Although the team has apparently soured on him, and although they drafted Chris Johnson, the reality is that they won’t feature Johnson if LenDale White goes down because they want to pound the ball inside with a power runner, and that’s not Johnson. Henry is still very raw and he’s not exactly a refined runner, but he’s pretty explosive for a bigger back, and he does have much better size than Johnson, so he would likely get 10+ carries per game if LenDale is out of the mix.
Marcel Shipp (Ari) – The team really likes Tim Hightower, but I have to be realistic, at least right now, and list the veteran Shipp here. He is, after all, the backup to Edgerrin James right now. If Hightower excels in the preseason and in practice, then that could change, but Shipp is the guy you have to believe will spell James at times, collect the occasional goal line carry, and start for the team if there’s an injury. I don’t have much confident in him, but we do have to see something from Hightower before assuming the rookie will pass the vet on the depth chart.
Kolby Smith (KC) – He doesn’t have much juice, but he’s got some power and a forward body lean that translates to positive yardage on most of his runs. Most of all, he’s still the backup to Larry Johnson, not rookie Jamal Charles, who is more of a complementary player. So if you want to protect your LJ investment, and you better since he got paid, then Smith’s the guy.
Correll Buckhalter (Phi) – Remember all the hype about Tony Hunt last year? That disappeared in a hurry once the regular season started because Andy Reid doesn’t like playing young running backs much. Heck, it took Brian Westbrook a couple of years to truly grab hold of the #1 job. That said, the backup job is still Buckhalter’s, and the best Hunt can hope for is the occasional short-yardage carry.
Tashard Choice (Dal) – I’m not even including rookie #1 pick Felix Jones in this article because Jones is a change-of-pace back who will line up all over the field this year. Jones is very capable of being a lead back in the NFL, but maybe not right now. The guy to look at here if we’re talking true backups (and we are) is fellow rookie Choice, who is a similar back to starter Marion Barber. He doesn’t have much explosiveness, but he’s a tough sustaining runner with power and physicality who has a willingness to block in pass protection and who gets a lot out of his talents. If Barber goes down, Choice will definitely get a chance, and he may even take about 75% of Barber’s role.
Jesse Chatman (NYJ) – This is not an easy call because they Jets signed Musa Smith, who is more talented than the plodding Chatman. But Chatman is more of a professional runner and someone they can truly rely on should Thomas Jones get hurt. So while Smith has more upside, the safe choice is that Chatman is the handcuff for Jones. But that could change if Smith lights it up in camp.
Jacob Hester (SD) – Hester is learning both RB and FB, but as of right now, and he was very active in the OTAs. Unless they sign someone else (LaMont Jordan could be free soon), he’s the guy who would likely collect the most carries if LT went down, and he should see some touches here and there spelling LT and FB Andrew Pinnock. But again, I have to believe Norv Turner will be seriously interested in Jordan once he’s released by the Raiders.
Antonio Pittman (Stl) – I’m a little confused as to what the Rams are doing behind Steven Jackson, and I’m not alone. They first last year asked FB Brian Leonard to slim down to handle playing RB, but not they seem to want him back at FB, and in his place they seem willing to roll with the pedestrian Pittman, who looks NFL power and speed. But Pittman was the #2 to close out the season, and it looks like he will be to open this one.
Wide Receivers
Note: Since many teams use multiple-receiver sets, we for the most part did not include #3 or slot receivers who will see the field often. These players are strictly backups who could surprised if thrust into their starting lineups and into featured roles.
Andre Davis (Hou) – I always knew he was talented, but we didn’t see much at all from Davis his first 3-4 years in the league. Even though I knew he was the tools to truly excel, I was still shocked at how effective and productive he was starting for Andre Johnson last year. In reality, the offense didn’t miss Johnson nearly as much as I would have thought, which is amazing since Johnson may be the most talented receiver in the league. Davis was the definition of a vertical receiver, and he made big plays with regularity, settling into Johnson’s role beautifully. He also did some damage on shorter routes and continued to kill the opposition in the return game. He’s Johnson’s backup again this year, since the team wisely decided to re-sign him and you bet your ass I think he’s the #1 backup WR in football.
Chad Jackson (NE) – Jackson’s a guy getting some good pub on the site lately, and that’s because he’s very talented and pushing for Donte Stallworth’s old job, ahead of vets Jabar Gaffney and Kelly Washington. Oh, and his quarterback threw for 50 TD passes last year. Of course if Jackson wins the job, he’ll no longer be a backup, so he’ll have to be removed from this list, but for now he’s one of best examples of a player who could rise up his team’s depth chart and make a fantasy splash, possibly a very large one. I don’t know about you, but I can’t envision Randy Moss scoring 23 TDs again this year, yet Tom Brady’s going to throw a ton of them again in 2008. If Jackson can stay healthy and keep a prominent role, then it’s not unrealistic to say the physical Jackson could score 7-8 TDs this year.
Robert Meachem (NO) – At this early stage, Meachem’s just one of many wideouts on this team vying for playing time, so he definitely should be listed here. He should be, at worst their third receiver, and if the vibes continue to be positive and he excels in camp and in practice, then Meachem could steal the #2 job during the season. The Saints could certainly love for that to happen, since Devery Henderson and Lance Moore aren’t starting material, and since David Patten’s going to be 34 in August.
Demetrius Williams (Bal) – Williams may not be on this list a few weeks because it’s basically a three-man rotation with him, Derrick Mason, and Marc Clayton, so it’s to be determined if Williams will actually “start” or not. It’s hard to feel as optimistic and intrigued by Williams as we would about a Jackson or Meachem, but he’s a talented player just the same. Gone is the dink-and-dunk passing game run by QB Steve McNair, and in it’s place is a more vertical element to their passing game, and that’s Williams’ deal. One of these days, we’ll truly see what Williams can do, and if he can do what his talent suggests he can do, he’ll be productive.
Drew Carter (Oak) – I’m starting to think the Raiders will be very glad they decided to pick Carter up this off-season. He’s been something of an underachiever, but he’s made an impression in Oakland this off-season. He’s shown an ability to make tough catches in traffic and with defenders draped on him, and it looks like he could emerge as a favorite target of QB JaMarcus Russell, especially on downfield routes. Ronald Curry is a possession guy all the way, and Javon Walker’s been a train wreck, so Carter’s someone to keep on your radar. He’s a legit deep threat and also a good red zone option at 6”3.’
James Jones (GB) – Jones hit a rookie wall last year, but the same thing happened to Greg Jennings in 2006, and he turned out alright. Jones gained a lot of experience in 2007, and he learned all of their receiving spots, so he could step in and start for either Jennings or Donald Driver, which is good to know. He’s a good fit for their underneath and run-after-the-catch passing game, and his hands are usually sticky, plus he can make a big play here and there (as he did on MNF on Champ Bailey last year). Rookie Jordy Nelson is an incredibly intriguing player, but Jones is the guy to look at for 2008 if a starter is out of the mix.
Jacoby Jones (Hou) – He’s still a little raw and is a project, but he’s also very talented and should be much better off this year, in his second year in the league and in the west coast offense. Davis is Andre Johnson’s backup, so Jones will have to truly excel and try to beat the solid Kevin Walter out for the #2 jog. If the playmaking Jones proves too deadly to keep off the field, then it’s possible that he’ll push Walter to the slot, a position he’s ideally-suited to play. If that happens, then he’ll have fantasy value – and the Texan passing attack will be downright scary.
Mark Bradley (Chi) – He’s probably the most complete and talented wideout the Bears have, so he needs to be covered. But Bradley’s been just a tease so far in his increasingly long NFL career. I’ve listed him here because right now he’s probably only the fourth wideout, behind Marty Booker, Devin Hester, and Brandon Lloyd, but if he’s healthy (torn ACL in 2005) he should be given a chance to start. He has good size, and he can run; he projects best as their #1 WR, but he has a long way to go. In the past, however, he’s definitely shown serious flashes, and he’s made big plays and produced, so keep an eye on him.
Jason Hill (SF) – He projects right now as their 4th receiver, at split end behind Bryant Johnson. With Arnaz Battle expected to be their #3, there may not be much production for this fairly promising speedster. Of course, you could have said that last year about Shaun McDonald, who was the #4 for Mike Martz in Detroit. McDonald went on to catch an amazing 79 passes, so Hill could be relevant in 2008.
Limas Sweed (Pit) – I like this guy a lot, and I love the fit in Pittsburgh. I’m just not sure yet where he fits in because Nate Washington is a pretty solid player who knows the offense. If Sweed can pick up the system quickly and show he’s able to utilize his vertical and red zone abilities, he’ll definitely help this offense. There’s some upside here for sure, but he might need some time before he’s ready to help fantasy owners. At the very least, he’ll give their offense more flexibility and will pose a greater threat to opposing defenses.
Steve Breaston (Ari) – The team has rookie Early Doucet, but he projects best as a slot receiver. With Bryant Johnson gone, the Cards need Breaston to step up and improve, and so far he has. He’s raw, but he can run, and if either Larry Fitz or Anquan Boldin go down, he’ll likely have to start.
Steve Johnson (Buf) – A player like Marques Colston comes around once a decade, but Johnson fits the profile of a receiver drafted late and seemingly buried on the depth chart – but one who makes a fantasy splash. He’s got some talent, and he’s a bigger receiver. That’s an important distinction because, if James Hardy doesn’t pan out or gets hurt, Johnson could be thrust into a large role. After all, wideouts Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed aren’t the answers for their #2 wideout spot, and they desperately need some size at the position. Johnson is a nice dynasty league option, too.
Muhsin Muhammad (Car) – Right now he’s neck-and-neck with D.J. Hackett for the #2 job. The job should be Hackett’s, but he has to earn it, and Moose has been strong this off-season. His legs could give out on him at any time given his age, but he’s got some serious mojo going with QB Jake Delhomme, plus Hackett’s about as brittle as they come.
Travis Wilson (Cle) – It looks like Joe Jurevicius is going to open the season on the PUP list, meaning he’ll be down for the first six games. That means it’s time for Wilson to step up and contribute as the #3. We all know that Donte Stallworth can’t be trusted, so it’s not a stretch to say Wilson could be a starter at some point this year. If so, he’s in a good spot, to say the least. Wilson’s have a good off-season, too, as his hands and overall consistency have improved, so his timing is good.
Troy Williamson (Jac) – Williamson’s made some headlines this off-season for catching that ball. Granted, that’s what you supposed to do, but with him, it’s news. This isn’t a player without talent, so he’s someone to keep an eye on, especially given the recent development with that crackhead Matt Jones. If Jerry Porter is down with an injury, certainly possible, then Williamson could start because he has elite speed, and this passing offense needs to get faster because it’s previously been littered with elite slowness.
Will Franklin (KC) – File Franklin on the deep, deep sleeper list. His hands are a little shaky, but he’s a solid all-around receiver with excellent size, and he’s had a very good spring. They like him, and only Derek Webb and Devard Darling are standing in his from a large role from the jump in his rookie season.
Sam Hurd (Dal) – Hurd is Terrell Owens’ backup, and most likely the starter if Owens or Patrick Crayton are hurt (assuming Terry Glenn is gone). Hurd hasn’t exactly taken full advantage of his opportunities, but this is going to be a great offense in 2008 – and you have to like how he averaged an impressive 16.5yards a catch last year.
Keary Colbert (Den) – I don’t think Samie Parker can play at this point, and I do like how Colbert fits in with the Broncos. Granted, he’s been a disappointment, but he has some ability and a change of scenery could be the ticket. I can envision Brandon Stokley sticking in the slot, meaning Colbert could start if either Darrel Jackson or Brandon Marshall gets hurt.
Robert Ferguson (Min) – The Vikes would prefer to keep Bobby Wade in the slot, so if something happens to starters Bernard Berrian or Sidney Rice, then they would likely turn to the veteran Ferguson, who is very experienced in the system, runs good routes, and blocks well. If he’s the guy for an extended period of time, he could do okay.
Steve Smith (NYG) – Smith’s really just a slot receiver, but it should be safe to assume that he would start if one of the top guys, such as Amani Toomer, got hurt. I do like Mario Manningham’s potential as a role player here, but he has a ton to prove. Smith’s already logged in an impressive training camp in 2007, and of course he played a role in their championship.
Craig Davis (SD) – Davis has been pushed to the #3 spot, but this was a starter to open the 2007 season, so he has some experience. He also has some speed and playmaking ability, and he’s improved this off-season. If Chris Chambers got hurt, he could be worth picking up on what should be a pretty good passing attack.
Antonio Bryant (TB) – He’s always been very talented, and since he’s made some waves in Tampa this off-season – and since their receiver corps is complete garbage – he needs to be listed here. He has a long way to go, obviously, but if we’re talking about backups who could surprise, he has to be listed at this point.
Andre Caldwell (Stl) – Right now he looks like their 3rd receiver, since he’s a veteran who’s familiar with Al Saunders’ offense from his season last year in Washington.
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen (Chi) – He’s technically behind veteran Desmond Clark, so he gets on this list. Of course, everyone knows he’s their move guy, their moveable chess piece, so he doesn’t even need an injury to his team’s starter to make an impact. In fact, he might be better off if Clark stays healthy and spends more time blocking.
Ben Utecht (Cin) – It’s basically cheating to list him here as well, since we should know what “starter” Reggie Kelly’s role is. After five years in Cincinnati, I’m finally ready to proclaim Kelly as nothing more than a blocking TE. I held off as long as I could. Seriously, Utecht was brought in to give the team some juice from the TE spot, and I fully expect him to do just that. Now, all they have to do is actually throw the ball to the tight end and he’ll be in business.
Bo Scaife (Ten) – He has to be listed here, since he is now a backup. OC Norm Chow did a poor job utilizing him, but the new guy, Mike Heimerdinger, who’s really the old guy, will definitely incorporate the TE heavily. So if Alge Crumpler’s legs give out on him, Scaife might not be chafe.
Kevin Boss (NYG) – For one, he’s much less annoying to look at than Jeremy “Goldilocks” Shockey, so Boss gets points in my book just for that. Boss may not be an elite talent, but neither is Shockey at this point, since his various injuries have clearly robbed him on his explosiveness. And at this point, that’s not coming back. If he continues to be a royal pain in the rear, then his role could be diminished, or he could still be shipped elsewhere. Or, he could get hurt again. So there are a few scenarios in which Boss’ role expands in 2008.
Dustin Keller (NYJ) – It may be only a matter of time until Keller passes veteran Chris Baker on the depth chart. And even if he doesn’t, it’s all about roles in the NFL, and his role should be set as their move guy and their primary receiving threat. That’s why they took him in the 1st round and trust me on this one: they are really, really hoping he can help them this year.
John Carlson (Sea) – He’s technically behind Jeb Putzier and maybe even Will Heller, and he was reportedly outplayed by both in their final OTAs of the off-season, which isn’t a good sign. Seattle probably reached on him in the 2nd round (38th overall). He’s a high-effort prospect with good intangibles, and he can help them as both a blocker and a receiver. The opportunity is good here, but he needs to pick up momentum and fast.
Anthony Fasano (Mia) – Fasano’s been stuck behind stud Jason Witten for a couple of seasons, but now that he’s in Miami, the only thing standing between him and a large role is super-scrub David Martin. Lord knows this offense needs playmakers, so Fasano should get a chance to see significant snaps this year – if not challenge Martin for this starting job. You can’t expect much, but he’s an athletic and natural pass-catcher, so he has the skills to make a difference in the passing game.
Ben Patrick (Ari) – Patrick has shown improved hands and enhanced speed this spring, and he’s going to give Leonard Pope a run for the starter job in training camp. Patrick has turned some heads in spring workouts, showing impressive quickness and reliable hands, so he’s someone to watch.
Delanie Walker (SF) – The 49ers recently signed him to a very large contract extension, so they clearly like him, and he was productive for them down the stretch last year (21 receptions, most late in the season). New OC Mike Martz has installed specific plays for Walker this spring and feels he can be an explosive weapon in the passing game due to his phenomenal hands, so he would be worth picking up if starter Vernon Davis went down.
Derek Fine (Buf) – The Bills are still searching for an upgrade and an identity at the tight end position, as Robert Royale (with cheese) really isn’t cutting it. The team also has veteran Courtney Anderson, so it’ll likely be a committee here, but Fine has some athletic ability and could rise to the top of the depth chart at some point.
David Thomas (NE) – The team did cut Kyle Brady loose, and they didn’t draft a TE, but they have ancient veteran Marcus Pollard on the roster, so it remains to be seen if Thomas will see the field. But Thomas has shown a few flashes, and they do like him. If he’s the #2 and Ben Watson is injured, he could help them in the passing game. And in his third year in the system and with QB Tom Brady, he should be more comfortable in what is usually a read-and-react passing scheme.
Brent Celek (Phi) – The Eagles opted to franchise and bring back L.J. Smith, and they did also add Kris Wilson, who plays TE and a few other spots, so Celek’s prospects this year aren’t that bright. But if Smith goes down, he could start. Celek has excellent hands and runs phenomenal routes, plus he’ll be more comfortable in the offense in his second year. He could be up to the challenge if Smith is out of the mix.
Dante Rosario (Car) – Rosario is still behind starter Jeff King, but he’s faster and more athletic than King, so he could dip into his production this year. Rosario provides the Panthers with a deep seam threat, since he can get open downfield and make tough catches in traffic. The Panthers, however, did draft another TE who can run in Gary Barnidge, so Rosario is a major reach still.
Martin Rucker (Cle) – He’s a pretty athletic player who could surprise if Kellen Winslow has more injury issues. Clearly, Winslow’s history factored into their decision to draft one of the better receiving threats at this position in April’s draft.
Martellus Bennett (Dal) – He’s a very good player, actually, perhaps the best overall TE in this year’s class. So if he can pick things up quickly, he could be a major contributor – if Jason Witten is down for the count.
Fred Davis (Was) – He’s worth listing here because of his upside as a fast receiving threat at the position. Chris Cooley is the guy, but if he’s hurt, then Davis will get a chance.