Fantasy Football Articles:

Third-Year WRs
by John Hansen
Publisher, The Guru Report
June 13, 2003

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Those who knocked the long prevailing theory that a WR in his third year is typically ready to burst onto the fantasy scene received some satisfaction in 2003. This was after second year players like Koren Robinson, Chad Johnson, and Rod Gardner defied the notion that NFL wide receivers need at least two years to adjust to the pro game.

However, a strong case can still be made that the magical year for WRs is, in fact, #3, as players such as Plaxico Burress, Jerry Porter, Laveranues Coles, Travis Taylor, and Todd Pinkston had by far their best seasons to date in their third years.

But the bottom line is that the common sentiment that rookie WRs do tend to struggle remains an accurate one. And despite the seasons logged in by Robinson and Johnson, it still makes a lot of sense to assume that a WR in his third season should be ready to perform close to a level that will ultimately be his peak career level.

Knowing that there will likely be a few surprise receivers who will perform beyond expectations this year primarily because they are finally ready to in their third season, I’ve profiled all the key players who fit the third-year WR criteria.

And here they are…

1. Koren Robinson (Sea, drafted #9) – With only two years of college experience and at the age of only 22, Robinson led Seattle with 78 receptions for 1,240 yards last season. If he’s destined to "break out" in his third year, look out. Most likely, though, Robinson’s raw talent sped up the maturation process, and we’ve already seen his coming out party. He basically did the same thing in college, where he tied Torry Holt's school record with fourteen 100-yard games receiving in just 22 games (Holt needed 41). The most impressive thing about Robinson last year was his ability to run after the catch. In his final six games, he had long receptions of 44, 39, 20, 35, 44, and 21. But the point here is that young receivers really do need 2-3 years to fully adjust to the pro game – especially an extremely young player like Robinson and especially in an intricate offense like Seattle’s – so Robinson should get better. Robinson, I should note, did break the knuckle on his right middle finger in early June, but the injury shouldn’t slow his 2003 progress down at all.
2. Chad Johnson (Cin, drafted #36) – Johnson is another player who blew a hole through the third-year WR theory by excelling in just his second season. Like Robinson, he struggled with injuries and rookie mistakes his first year in the league, but flourished, thanks to his impressive athletic ability, in his second year. If you throw out his first four games last year when he wasn’t involved in the offense, he averaged 90 yards receiving a game (prorated over 16 games that’s nearly 1500 yards). In his rookie season, Johnson once wore a headband in a game that read "go deep," yet in that game he dropped what should have been a 90+ yard TD pass. He had little college experience and reportedly got very nervous and struggled at the combines in 2002, so he clearly needed as least one year in, and his explosive emergence and his amazing chemistry with QB Jon Kitna is even more impressive than it appeared on the surface. Now, with two years in and a better supporting cast, the sky’s the limit.
3. Rod Gardner (Was, drafted #15) – Gardner has been productive his first two years in the league, but he’s a better example of a third-year WR than Robinson and Johnson. Gardner disappeared at times his rookie season, and then last year he was demoted for one game, apparently because head coach Steve Spurrier wasn’t pleased with his route running and his intensity level. Gardner, to his credit, responded by scoring in six of his last nine games, and he showed last year that he could produce, regardless of who was in at QB. The key for Gardner now in his third year is consistency. If his overall game is more consistent in 2003, he’s sure to produce very good numbers in this pass-heavy offense, even though he’ll be just the #2 WR now.
4. Chris Chambers (Mia, drafted #52) – Chambers is the best example of a third-year WR ready to take a step forward we’ve seen on this list so far. He burst onto the scene in his rookie season, but a closer look at him that year reveals that he knew how to play only one WR position in the team’s offense, and he made most of his plays simply by out-running people downfield and out-jumping them for the ball. Last year he was slowed by an ankle injury in the off-season and a concussion during the season, but he was also still too raw with his technique. This year, though, he’s working hard to improve his technique by studying the moves of some of the league’s top receivers, and he’s been working hard in practice all off-season. In his third year, he should be able to combine his freakish talent with a better understanding of the game and have his best season to date.
5. Quincy Morgan (Cle, drafted #33) – Morgan is another great example of a third-year WR who could be ready to completely bust out. He was pretty good last year. Coming out of college, Morgan was a classic example of a talented yet raw player who needed some time to develop. He struggled with dropped passes and didn’t always stay focused in his rookie year, but he showed a marked improvement last year and also became more comfortable with the offense. He’s a versatile receiver, with the ability to beat speedy defenders deep (he led the league in yards per catch with 17.5 last year) and outmuscle the league’s bigger DBs with this size, so he’s an inviting target. The Jets wanted to trade for him this off-season, but the Browns weren’t biting because they really, really like Morgan. It would not surprise me at all, in his critical third season, if Morgan wound up being the league’s breakthrough receiver in 2003.
6. Reggie Wayne (Ind, drafted #30) – Wayne could be a classic third-year breakthrough WR. He’s battled inconsistency and injuries his first two years, but he did show solid potential in 2002, catching 49 passes for 716 yards and averaged a very solid 14.6 yards per catch. At times, he seems to lose interest when he’s not involved, and last year the team opted to use the more experienced Qadry Ismail more early in the season. The former #1 pick has been patient, but his patience may finally pay off this year. Ismail is gone, and Wayne should beat Brandon Stokely out for the #2 WR job. Wayne can play outside and in the slot, so he’s a versatile option. He has excellent hands and route running and can run after the catch. It’s hard to expect a monster season with Marvin Harrison being the most active receiver in the league, but, on the other hand, the Colt offense would be much more deadly if they had a viable option at WR other than Harrison, and that should be Wayne.
7. David Terrell (Chi, drafted #8) – His broken foot in 2002 certainly didn’t help, but Terrell’s development has been slowed by his inability to convince the team that he’s mature enough to be relied upon as a starter. Even this year, he was flapping his mouth about comments made by GM Jerry Angelo on how rookie WR Justin Gage would challenge Terrell for playing time. In addition, Terrell hasn’t been a regular in the team’s "voluntary" spring workouts. But what most people don’t know – and information I got directly from a Bear beat writer – is that Terrell looked fantastic at one of the team’s mandatory minicamps. Terrell has the physical attributes and talent to be a dominating player, and if he were going to bust out, this season it would be a logical time for it to happen.
8. Robert Ferguson (GB, drafted #41) – If Ferguson can stave off Javon Walker and produce numbers worthy of fantasy consideration, his being in his third season will be a big reason why. Ferguson had only one season of experience in college and then missed off-season preparation time his rookie year and was inactive for most of the season back in 2001. He’s needed a lot of cultivation, but he’s gotten it over the past 18 months, and in 2002 he slowly emerged as a viable option in the passing game. He has a better knowledge of the offense than Walker and better fits the prototype of a West Coast Offense receiver. Plus, he’s a fearless receiver who will go over the middle and does a good job blocking. Walker, though, is more athletic and a former #1 pick, so Ferguson will have to play well to come out of camp with the starting job. Most likely, both will make an impact in 2003.
9. Santana Moss (NYJ, drafted #16) – Although he probably won’t ever be a dominant fantasy performer due to his lack of size, Moss could definitely surprise some people in his third year in the Jets’ West Coast Offense. He will be counted on heavily to replace some of Laveranues Coles’ production. With new #1 WR Curtis Conway still learning the offense, Coles will likely be on the field for up to 70% of the team’s snaps, and he will also play at both flanker and split end. A threat to score every time he touches the ball, Moss now has two full years under his belt in the system and working with QB Chad Pennington (Moss did miss a lot of his rookie season with a knee injury). If his hands are more consistent in his third year, Moss, who got a ride in college on a track – not a football – scholarship, should come close to performing at his peak level in 2003.
10. Steve Smith (Car, drafted #74) – Smith caught a break with the injury to Kevin Dyson, which is expected to keep Dyson out for the 2003 season. Now Smith is a mortal lock to start again alongside Muhsin Muhammad. Smith played very well last year in that role, but he could be more consistent, the single element he needs to improve upon in his third year. Otherwise, the rambunctious Smith has proven to be a playmaker, thanks to his excellent speed and shiftiness, so if the year of starting experience pays dividends in 2003, he should definitely be worthy of fantasy consideration, even in a smaller, 10-team league.
11. Justin McCareins (Ten, drafted #124) – For the last two years, McCareins has been a star in the Titan training camp. In 2001, he missed most of the season with ankle injuries, but at least he was on the team and was able to learn from the sidelines. Last year, he was, again, a player the team was very high on, but he only showed a few flashes on the field and had some big drops. Considering that his development his rookie season was ruined due to injuries but that and he gained experience in 2002, he’s definitely someone to watch this summer. If he can become a more consistent performer, he has a chance to steal the starting job opposite Derrick Mason because he has excellent size and the speed to stretch the defense, two things the Titans desperately need in their passing game.
12. Freddie Mitchell (Phi, drafted #25) – Do you think the Eagles regret taking him over guys like (Chad) Johnson, Chambers, Morgan, Wayne, and even Ferguson? They sure do. Mitchell has been a bust because he’s not a very good fit for the Eagle system, but perhaps more importantly because his attitude and work ethic have been negatives. His third year is not only critical because he’s been in the league and system for two years and, thus, should be ready to step up, but it’s paramount because it’s his last chance with the Eagles. If he flops this year, he’s as good as gone. He’ll compete with rookie Billy McMullen, who is a better fit for the offense.
13. Cedrick Wilson (SF, drafted #169) – If there is a dark horse on this list with a legitimate chance to make an impact, it could be Wilson, who doesn’t have great size or speed but who knows how to get open. The 49ers are fairly high on him, and he should challenge if not win the #3 WR job now that JJ Stokes is out of the picture.
14. Darnerien McCants (Was, drafted #154) – McCants isn’t an ideal fit for Steve Spurrier’s offense, but his nice size, decent speed, and playmaking ability cannot be overlooked completely. Coming from tiny Delaware State and in this complex system, another year in the league will only do him good. But he has a serious battle on his hands for playing time and could settle into only the #5 WR spot.
15. Kevin Kasper (Ari, drafted #190) – Kasper has good size and speed, and he’s dangerous after the catch. He’s bounced a round a little, but with a full off-season to work with Jerry Sullivan, an excellent receiver coach, he should have a role in the Cardinal offense this year.
16. Scottie Anderson (Det, drafted #148) – The Lions have been pretty high on Anderson, but he’s best known for being a great practice player but not much of a player on the field in a real game. The point is almost moot now, since he’ll be at best the team’s #4 WR. But with two years under his belt, Anderson could be ready to contribute steadily if forced into a starting role due to an injury.
17. Quentin McCord (Atl, drafted #236) – McCord, who had a huge seven-catch, 182-yard game against the Lions last year, is a speedy, playmaking receiver who is best suited to play a complementary role, perhaps as a slot receiver. He exhibited good chemistry with Michael Vick last year, and that will only be built upon in his third season (he and Vick came into the league together).
18. T. J. Houshmandzadeh (Cin, drafted #204) – Thanks to the team’s frequent use of multiple-receiver sets, Houshmandzadeh has collected a fair amount of playing time over the last two years. He, in fact, was in line for the starting job at one point last summer. Houshmandzadeh was considered raw coming out of college, but he’s proven himself to be a more than serviceable receiver. But the problem is that he’s the #4 or #5 guy here most likely.
19. Andre King (Cle, drafted #245) – King will actually be 30 in November, which is extremely rare for a third-year receiver. He has decent size and speed and could be a solid possession receiver for some team. But it doesn’t look like that team will ever be the Browns, since he is buried on the depth chart.
20. Marvin Minnis (KC, drafted #77) – Minnis’ NFL career got off to a quick start, but it’s been downhill ever since. Injuries have been a huge problem, but his diminutive size makes it tough for him to get off the line in the pros. He might not even make the final cut this summer.

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