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2008 Sample article. Check out our Subscriber-Online Football Homepage here.

Subscribe for 2008 Here!
  
 Post-Draft Rookie Report

by John Hansen
Publisher, FantasyGuru.com
May 6, 2008

 

For fantasy, this year’s NFL Draft could have been worse. It could have been better, but it could have been worse.

 

As expected, most of the top quarterbacks landed in cities where there is a dire need for their services, so three of the top four players selected have a legitimate chance to earn playing time in just their first season. And while many of the stud backs landed in committee-type situations this year, which was something of buzz kill, several lower-end backs found themselves in ideal situations, which will add to the overall depth at the position. At wide receiver, it was a mixed bag, as usual. But with unusual depth, the position has been re-stocked throughout the NFL. And there are a large number of players who could go down as surprise performers and waiver wire gems in 2008. Unfortunately, no one is really jumping out as a potentially strong fantasy option right now. As for the tight end position, it’s devoid of a true stud, but there are a number of players who could immediately help their NFL teams and possibly some fantasy teams.

 

For those in keeper or dynasty leagues, this year’s draft features a sufficient number of potential studs and franchise players. But just as fascinating, this year’s class seems to have an unusually high number of potential sleepers and viable dark horses, which certainly adds to the intrigue.

 

In some cases, my ordering of the players from the pre- and post-draft reports has changed greatly, yet there could be some dramatic changes to the rankings you see below in a few months – so take these very early rankings with a grain of salt.

 

Quarterbacks

 

  1. Matt Ryan (Atl) – By taking the squeaky-clean Ryan with the 3rd overall pick, the door is officially closed forever on the Michael Vick era. Ryan’s leadership will be welcomed in Atlanta, yet there is no doubt he has the skills to be a quality NFL starter. He does not have a gun, and while he’s sneaky athletic, he’s certainly not a dynamic threat with this legs. Otherwise, there’s a lot to like about Ryan. In addition to his excellent leadership ability, he’s smart, patient, and poised, and he has the awareness and anticipation needed to excel. He’s mechanically sound and he’s accurate. He will get some starts for the Falcons this year; it’s just a question of how many. The company line is basically that he will get a few starts at some point, but no one is ruling out Ryan starting for the Falcons from the get-go, including head coach Mike Smith. One factor that could delay Ryan’s regular season NFL debut is their offensive line. The addition of rookie #1 pick Sam Baker will help, but this is not a very talented unit. And they are adjusting to a new scheme this year. If the unit has problems with its cohesiveness and struggles to protect consistently like last year, the team could be inclined to keep veteran Chris Redman out there for more than half the season. If the line is at least adequate, which is possible, Ryan’s situation isn’t all that bad. They want to roll first and foremost with a smashmouth running game, and Michael Turner should take some pressure off the quarterback. Plus, Jerious Norwood can make some explosive plays in the passing game. Wideout Roddy White is a nice player and Michael Jenkins is solid. Second-year man Laurent Robinson is actually running with the starters early this spring. He has a chance to play a lot alongside White and add some playmaking ability to the vertical passing game. Plus, rookie Harry Douglas has definite potential in the slot. But they should make less frequent use of 3-4 receiver sets, so this won’t be a very wide-open offense. And they do have a gaping hole at TE. At the end of the day, even if Ryan plays a lot and plays well, this should be a fairly conservative offense.

    Keeper League Analysis: Ryan probably won’t ever be a fantasy stud, unless they switch to a more wide-open offensive system. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be a strong fantasy option. He doesn’t have much downside for the long term, and his supporting cast at the skill positions is decent. He’s not the upside guy at this position in this draft class, but he offers a lot of long-term stability for a keeper or dynasty team. 

  1. Joe Flacco (Bal) – The Ravens were thrilled to get Flacco in the first round (highest they’ve ever taken a QB, 18th overall), but it’s worth noting that Matt Ryan was definitely their first choice. That could have been because Ryan is much more NFL-ready than Flacco, so the Ravens may have to suck it up and endure another full season of Kyle Boller. Flacco, though, is considered to be in the mix to battle for the starting job in training camp, and he might have a chance to be the clear #2 ahead of second-year man Troy Smith. The first Division I-AA quarterback to be drafted in the 1st round since Steve McNair in 1995, Flacco would likely struggle if the Ravens felt the need to push him into the starting lineup this year. He was in the shotgun a lot in college, so he needs work with his progression reading and pre-snap recognition. You also have to be concerned with the level of competition he faced at Delaware and how he handles the speed of the game in the pros. The team’s offensive line won’t be very good at pass protection either, so the Ravens may be better off letting Boller handle most of the snaps this year. Still, unless a playoff birth is somehow within reach later in the season, it appears the team is intent on getting Flacco on the field at some point. And you really can’t say for sure he’d struggle until he’s put in the lineup. If all his offensive weapons are healthy, he’ll have some solid support at RB with Willis McGahee and Ray Rice, as well as a very serviceable group of receivers, including veterans Todd Heap and Derrick Mason and (still) promising youngsters Demetrius Williams and Mark Clayton. We’re not expecting much in Year One, but Flacco could do better than anyone expects late in the season. 

    Keeper League Analysis: As mentioned in our pre-draft report, Flacco is definitely a play-to-win fantasy pick. His athleticism is only average and his pocket awareness and footwork in college weren’t all that great. Plus, he has the issues outlined above to deal with. But if you’re looking for a big, strong quarterback who has a rocket arm and who’s not afraid to stare down the gun barrel as a long-term investment, then Flacco is your guy in 2008. He’s very strong in the pocket, he throws with timing and anticipation, and he shows a willingness to make stick throws. And he’s a confident guy when he throws. He’s consistently accurate. He projects very well to the NFL. Comparing him to Ryan for the long-term is a tough call, but we will say this: Flacco is the upside choice. Ryan may be safer, but Flacco is the choice if you want to go for the gusto and if you can be patient.

  1. Chad Henne (Mia) – Immediately after the draft, the team said that it was basically up to Henne as to whether or not he’ll legitimately challenge for playing time and possibly the starting job coming out of training camp this summer. But the reality is that it likely depends also on second-year man John Beck and veteran Josh McCown – and both are shaky. If Beck doesn’t improve noticeably this summer, and if McCown is his usual inconsistent self, Henne has a shot. Not that he’ll be a viable fantasy option on this team, but Henne was a four-year starter at Michigan, and he is a sizable and strong QB with a big arm, the type of player Bill Parcells prefers at the position. However, his accuracy and mechanics need work, so he’ll be hard-pressed to excel this year if he sees the field. The Dolphins have quickly put together a solid offensive line, which helps, but they should be a run-heavy team, and their receiving corps is very weak. He’s listed this high mainly because of his lack of serious competition this year, but this is not a player to even consider for fantasy in 2008.

    Keeper League Analysis: While Henne definitely has the size and physical tools to be an effective NFL starter, he has a long way to go before he’s considered a strong long-term option. His biggest problem is his accuracy, which is a big red flag moving up to the NFL level. Plus, his footwork is shaky, and mechanical issues are also a big concern. He’s a little robotic, and he could have problems in the NFL when there are bodies around him. He has to show he can stand tall in the pocket, which remains to be seen. He’ll need some work, so the Dolphins will have to be patient with him. Unfortunately, they may not have a choice but to get him on the field soon, so Henne will have to be coached up quickly, and he’ll have to respond very favorably. Apparently, Beck has a hitch in his throw, which is a concern, and the drafting of Henne is a sign that the new regime wants him to be the guy over Beck. You could do a lot better for a young keeper league prospect, however, so he’s only a long-term dynasty league option. 

  1. Brian Brohm (GB) – First and foremost, it’s abundantly clear that the addition of Brohm does not affect the team’s depth chart at the position right now. Barring a complete meltdown, Aaron Rodgers is the starter. However, you do have to realize the addition of Brohm could be an indication that the team isn’t comfortable with Rodgers as their franchise QB. And if that’s the case, then Rodgers’ starting job could be in jeopardy at some point this year if things get ugly. After all, Brohm has a lot of experience as a three-year starter, and his intelligence and work ethic are strong. He has some flaws, such as his tendency to butcher routine throws, and he was somewhat inconsistent with his accuracy. But he’s generally considered precise and efficient. He can make NFL throws, and he showed a willingness to make stick throws while staying strong in the pocket and looking down the gun barrel. Brohm’s not a guy who can drive the deep throw, but he landed in the perfect system in Green Bay, a West Coast offense that emphasizes the shorter passing game. Brohm can command and run an offense and he won’t kill himself with bad decisions, so he can definitely be an effective starter if he’s in the right system and if he has good players around him. In Green Bay, he has both, so he could do a nice job early in his career if given the chance. However, until he fixes some mechanical issues and improves his accuracy, he’s no lock to enjoy success in the NFL.  

    Keeper League Analysis: Brohm’s obviously a tricky keeper league prospect. He’s not as much of a sure thing as Ryan, or even Flacco, and he does also have some durability issues. Plus, he isn’t the biggest QB you’ll find. Of course, even if he’s poised to excel, it doesn’t mean he will because Rodgers stands in front of him. If Rodgers delivers on the field, Brohm will be only a popular backup, not a fantasy option. Considering this unique situation, he can’t be seen as a strong keeper league option, making him only viable in a larger dynasty league as a 3rd QB. 

  1. John David Booty (Min) – This is the ideal landing spot for Booty. Booty was the perfect option in the draft because he was a good value and he has a chance to compete for the starting job in time, perhaps only one season, if the Vikings need to make a change. He has no chance to play this year, but he will likely stick as the #3 behind Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte over veteran Brooks Bollinger.

    Keeper League Analysis: He’s worth a flyer in a larger keeper or dynasty league because he has the talent to be a starter, he’s in the prefect system for his skills, and his team by no means has a franchise quarterback secured. The Vikings felt he was perfect for their West Coast offense, the basic system Booty ran at USC. That’s because, in addition to having accuracy in the short field and a good sense of timing and anticipation, he has an ability to complete passes down the field, and he’s pretty athletic. He’s definitely a project, though, and while he has the tools to be a viable player in the NFL, it remains to be seen if he’ll ever be one. In addition to having some issues with the mental aspects of the game, he has some problems with his technique and fundamentals, so he will have to be coached up big time for 1-2 years. He’s strictly a long-term dynasty league prospect, but again he is one with a legitimate chance to not only compete for a starting job in a couple of years, but also to win the top spot and do pretty well.

View 5 other players analyzed plus keeper league rankings for all players at the position with comments here.
 

Running Backs

  1. Jonathan Stewart (Car) – By selecting Stewart with the 13th overall pick in the draft, the Panthers made several statements. For one, they are committed to running the ball, and running it in a physical fashion between the tackles. They also made a clear proclamation that they are not going to rely on DeAngelo Williams to carry their running game. Williams will have a substantial role, but it’s clear with their selection of Stewart that they intend for him to emerge as their lead back. Williams is a talented back, but he hasn’t been able to show the team that he can handle a heavy workload, and his propensity to bounce too many runs outside flies in the face of their style. Stewart is much more of a north-south runner, something the team covets, yet he also has some speed and receiving skills, so he’s a complete back, perhaps the most complete back in this year’s draft class. Stewart has definite upside, and you have to be encouraged with his lofty draft status, big production, and highlight-reel runs in college, and his situation in Carolina, but he’s not without his own issues. Those who study him on tape believe he lacks truly special qualities, and he’s known for being less than aggressive at times. He’s also had some injury problems. The team, at least, wasn’t too concerned with his recent toe surgery, since their own doctor performed it. Stewart will also have to make the case that he deserves the bulk of the carries and touches in a backfield comprised of two recent #1 picks. But those with the fortitude to embrace the current RBBC nature of the league rather than shun it could find themselves with a real gem in Stewart. The Panther line will receive a boost with fellow #1 pick Jeff Otah, and there is enough talent for this line to be sufficient, if not solid. And you have to believe that, if QB Jake Delhomme is healthy, this will be an effective offense, what with solid #2 wideout D.J. Hackett added along with serviceable veteran Muhsin Muhammad. There should be more than enough firepower in the passing game to take pressure off Stewart and put him in a position to enjoy success.

    Keeper League Analysis: Until proven otherwise, Stewart should be considered something of an injury risk, but it’s too early to proclaim him a liability due to his durability issues. Injury issues aside, he’s probably a better keeper league prospect than he is for this year alone. That’s because his role should only increase as the years go by, since he can certainly excel as an every-down and true featured back. The team needs to find an eventual replacement for Delhomme, however, so unless youngster Matt Moore develops into a solid player (possible), Stewart’s supporting cast could be shaky in a couple of years. Still, he’s clearly one of the best keepers at any position in this draft class.

 

  1. Darren McFadden (Oak) – He’s been compared to Adrian Peterson and Reggie Bush, and we have to say the Bush comparison is a better one for McFadden. Interestingly, his head coach Lane Kiffin coached Bush in college, so he should know how to utilize McFadden’s unique ability. The hype surrounding McFadden in many ways is warranted. He has incredible speed going north-south, and he’s a dangerous receiver. However, he has very limited lateral explosiveness, which can kill a back in the NFL, and his pass protection is considered very weak, which could limit his production in the passing game. He also fails to make defenders miss, and he goes down too easily too often. He’s what some NFL people call a “Gaping Hole Runner.” If he has a big crease, he’ll take it to the house, and if they can figure out ideal ways to use him in the passing game, he could make a ton of big plays in the passing game. But like Bush, his limitations could be exposed in the NFL, especially if his offense isn’t clicking on all cylinders. That’s certainly possible, given JaMarcus Russell’s vast inexperience. He’s been very durable up until this point, but many feel he needs to add some bulk if he’s to carry the load in the NFL. You also have to be worried about some past indiscretions and whether or not he still has some character issues. And finally, the Raiders won’t likely let him truly carry the load, since Justin Fargas played well last year, and since it appears Michael Bush is ready to contribute and is a much bigger back who’s well-suited for a short-yardage role. In short, while McFadden has nice upside and is a sexy pick, he also has downside, and he should at the very least be hit-or-miss this year. Based on his hype and name-brand recognition, he’ll almost certainly be overvalued in fantasy drafts this year. And thing will have to be going very well for him in the preseason to retain this high spot in our rankings (although there’s not too much competition below him).

    Keeper League Analysis: Most of the caveats outlined above apply to McFadden as a keeper league pick. Fargas at least doesn’t have much of a future with the team, and Bush may never pan out, and as a top-5 pick the Raiders have a ton invested in him. We contend it’s dangerous to assume McFadden will be a beast for the next 5-7 years in the NFL, but it’s probably equally dangerous to completely blow him off. We’d take Mendenhall and Stewart over him in a heartbeat, but McFadden is certainly worth a shot as the 3rd rookie back taken this year in a keeper or dynasty league.

  1. Matt Forte (Chi) – Forte isn’t an elite talent, but he was extremely productive last year, finishing second in the nation in rushing. He’s a bigger and physical back, yet unlike Cedric Benson, he shows lateral agility and explosiveness, and he’s very smooth in his cuts for a big man. He has very good balance and an ability to string moves together. He sees the hole and hits it, whereas Benson is not as instinctive. All of these attributes translate well to the NFL, and they could also give Forte a better chance to get the job done behind a weak line than Benson. Forte can catch the ball too, so also unlike Benson he can be a three-down back. He’s not a complementary back that they can team with Benson. He’s a legit lead back, which tells you all you need to know about how they feel about Benson. If Forte beats Benson out, it’s not inconceivable that Benson is released or winds up being a healthy inactive for most of their games because he offers nothing as a backup. Benson can’t help as a receiver, he’s not a very good goal line back, and he doesn’t play special teams. If Benson does win the starting job, something that appears less likely after his boating incident this past weekend, the Bears will certainly be okay with that and they will see what happens from there. But he will have to officially beat Forte out for the job, and just by drafting a comparable player as high as they did, it’s safe to say the Bears have made up their minds that Benson is not their featured back. If Forte is named the starter, he’ll be a solid #3 fantasy back. Just keep in mind he’ll have to face the Vikings and their excellent run defense twice this year.

    Keeper League Analysis: It’s hard to say Forte is a lock to have a great NFL career, so his high ranking for this year doesn’t exactly mean he’ll be a brilliant keeper league prospect. For the long term, it’s better to invest in some of the more gifted players in this draft, such as Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Darren McFadden, and maybe even Felix Jones. But since Forte does have what it takes to be a #1 NFL RB, and since Benson has been a major disappointment, Forte is certainly a savvy keeper league option. You just have to recognize that the Bear line was horrendous last year and could be shaky for awhile, and they of course need a quarterback upgrade, plus they need serious help at receiver. 

  1. Kevin Smith (Det) – In fantasy, there’s a lot to be said for opportunity for a running back. Opportunity can turn an average back into a serious fantasy factor and an above-average back into a fantasy stud. And Smith’s opportunity on the Lions is about as good as it gets. When you consider the team’s #1 back before the draft was Tatum Bell, who was a healthy scratch in all their games after Week Five last year, then it’s easy to see why Smith is the favorite to start for the Lions (they did add veteran Artose Pinner last week). He’s also the favorite to carry the load, since being a workhorse is his deal. Smith has some tread on the tires – an amazing 450 carries last year – but the flipside of that stat is that he’s proved to be able to handle a massive load without any serious injury issues. Smith is tough and very productive, but he does not have lateral ability or change of direction. He’s not shifty or elusive, and he probably won’t make people miss in the NFL. He’s not known for his speed, so he’s more of a power guy, which fits their new scheme (Smith ran in their new zone scheme in college), yet it remains to be seen if he has enough ability to be a sustaining runner. He doesn’t have the kind of girth in his build to project to a starting back in the NFL over a long haul. In addition, he’s not considered a good receiver. Since Mike Martz is gone and since the team made a decision to keep Bell, it’s safe to assume that Bell could see some time as a change-of-pace. He could in theory limit Smith’s production. Still, if Smith’s the guy, and barring a complete flop he will be, he’ll have value and he makes for a nice #3 fantasy back on what should be a decent offense.    

    Keeper League Analysis: You have to keep in mind that Smith was only a 3rd round pick, and he’s a guy who should have been drafted in the 3rd round. In other words, he’s not special, so it’s premature to proclaim him a long-term producer for a keeper league. He’s certainly viable once the top talents are off the board, but Smith could also be a player the team is looking to replace with a more dynamic player in 1-2 years. Consider him a solid short-term option because the team has no one else, but all bets are off 2-3 years down the road unless he overachieves.

  1. Felix Jones (Dal) – If you can see past the McFadden hype, you may notice, as sharp NFL scouts who’ve studied both on tape do, that Jones has more NFL skills than McFadden. In fact, they ran pro formations at Arkansas with Jones, and they did not with McFadden, which is telling. While he does lack physicality, Jones has great perimeter explosiveness, and Marion Barber does not. Jones brings the lateral pop and great speed the team is missing with Barber. He makes defenders miss, creates yardage when it’s not there, and has the ability to turn the corner and run to daylight. The plan last year was for the team to have a 1-2 punch with Julius Jones and Barber, only Jones didn’t give the team the production it needed. This year, with (Julius) Jones gone, Barber’s role will likely increase a little, and (Felix) Jones will likely give the team the juice it needs. Jones should be a moveable chess piece. He can line up wide at times with Barber in the backfield, and he should bring the element of being a dangerous open-field weapon to their offense. Now, it has to be pointed out that, even though he has the potential to be a legit featured back in the NFL at some point, Jones was drafted to be a complementary player this year more than anything else. That means his value in 2008 is a little shaky. He has upside, for sure, and he could certainly be worth using as a flex starter in a PPR league, but he should be viewed as more of a luxury for a fantasy team this year than a true starter, unless you also have Barber and are looking for some protection.

    Keeper League Analysis: As mentioned above, Jones does have the potential to be a featured back in the NFL. Some scouts feel he has movement skills similar to LaDainian Tomlinson, which should get your attention. Barber, too, may be in the early stages of a serious contract squabble, so in one year’s time, we could be looking at Jones as the likely starter in Dallas. But if Barber sticks for the long term, then Jones’ keeper stock will remain somewhat low. The team also drafted Tashard Choice, who also has the potential to develop into a solid player, if not a starter. 

View 10 other players analyzed plus keeper league rankings for all players at the position with comments here.
 

Wide Receivers

 

  1. Devin Thomas (Was) – This is not a good WR class, so keep in mind that Thomas is at the top spot almost by default because the Redskins appear to be willing to give him the first crack at the starting job opposite Santana Moss. But Thomas probably isn’t ready to start right now. He’s got a chance to be very good due to his size, speed, and run-after-the-catch ability, but he has no idea how to run routes at this point, so he shouldn’t be starting in a West Coast offense right away. Thomas has to be coached very well to make an impact, and in retrospect he probably didn’t deserve to be drafted in the 1st round (and he wasn’t). He’s more of a straight-line receiver than an elusive one. And, of course, he’s really just a one-year wonder, so you have to be skeptical this year, especially since their #2 pick, Malcolm Kelly, might be more NFL-ready right now. Also, keep in mind that this offense should be run-heavy early in the season, as they transition into their new offense.

    Keeper League Analysis: Thomas should be drafted only late in a re-draft league for this year, but he does merit a high pick for a keeper league. Of all the wideouts in this class, he projects best as a #1 NFL wideout. He looks big, but he plays to his great 40 time, and he’s a good vertical threat. He can also take a short pass a long way. He has a developing game, yet he shows a lot of natural skills, which is encouraging.

  1. James Hardy (Buf) – He’s a king-sized receiver (6’5”) with good hands, so he should, at the very least, give the Bills the size they desperately need. He should be a primary target in the red zone from Day One, so he’s a decent bet to challenge #1 guy Lee Evans for the team lead in TDs. However, he’s more of a loping runner with marginal playing speed, and he’s an average route-runner with limited quickness. Perhaps most disconcerting, Hardy has an innate lack of physicality, and he seems to shy away from contact. He’s not a physical receiver for a man who is 6’5”, and he’s thin as a rail. A lack of toughness from a possession receiver isn’t exactly a good sign, so consider this high ranking a rather lukewarm endorsement. If you want upside, look elsewhere.

    Keeper League Analysis: Hardy certainly has to be ranked high for this year based on his opportunity on the Bills. Maybe he emerges as a go-to guy for QB Trent Edwards, but unless he’s able to score red zone TDs in bunches, it’s hard to get too excited about a possession receiver who lacks physicality and who plays in an offense that, shall we say, is less than wide open.

  1. Donnie Avery (Stl) – The Rams opened a lot of eyes with their selection of Avery in the 2nd round, but you have to take notice how he was the first receiver taken off the board. New offensive coordinator Al Saunders obviously loves him, and Avery has outstanding speed and playmaking ability. He’s also considered a high-character guy, which was important to the Rams. He is a little undersized and may struggle with the physicality of the NFL game, and he’s not the most refined route-runner, but he could still be a terrific vertical and run-after-the-catch threat as soon as this year. Since he gives them the speed their receiving corps needs, he should play early this year in the slot, which will help him get clean releases, and he could possibly be something similar to what Kevin Curtis was for the team before joining the Eagles. The Ram offense will be interesting to watch this year because they are certainly not void of good players and playmakers.

    Keeper League Analysis: Although he could immediately fill a role similar to the one Curtis previously filled, the team views him as their long-term replacement for Isaac Bruce. You also have to recognize how Torry Holt has a pair of tricky knees, so the Rams may need Avery to step up and be a go-to guy in 1-2 years. Saunders’ offense is definitely fantasy-friendly, and Avery should have at the very least a decent quarterback throwing him the ball in Marc Bulger, so consider him a nice sleeper for the long term.

  1. Malcom Kelly (Was) – Kelly is a big receiver who is fairly athletic. He’s a long-strider, and he’s not very explosive, but he has a good understanding of how to run routes. He’s embraced the physical element of the game, and he’s very good over the middle. He’s a good complement to a vertical guy, and the Redskins have one in Santana Moss. In fact, Kelly is probably a better Week One starter opposite Moss than Thomas, yet it appears Thomas will get the first chance to win that job. It will come down to the mental progress for both players in training camp as to who starts opposite Moss, but don’t count Kelly out, assuming he’s healthy and running well in training camp (he has a knee issue, nothing too serious). If he is clearly the starter over Thomas, then he’ll be worth a very late pick. If nothing else, he should get a lot of looks in the red zone due to his size.  

    Keeper League Analysis: Unless Thomas busts, it’s hard to get too excited about Kelly, since Thomas projects better as a #1 NFL wideout. If Thomas is as advertised, then the team would pair him with Moss for another couple of seasons, making Kelly potentially only the 4th receiver these next couple of seasons (Antwaan Randle El is still around, too). With that said, Kelly is strictly a dynasty league option at this very early stage.

  1. Limas Sweed (Pit) – This was a very good pick for the Steelers, who actually ranked Sweed much higher than most teams (apparently in their top-25 overall). The Steelers really needed to add to their depth at the position, and adding a tall receiver was ideal. Sweed is a good athlete who’s very quick and sudden coming out of his breaks. He’s one of the better route-runners in this class, and he has the ability to separate down the field. He has a chance this year to take the #3 job from Nate Washington, but even if he doesn’t, he could still be used in the red zone, since he’s their tallest receiver now at 6’4”. He probably won’t have much fantasy value in 2008, but he’s another weapon for QB Ben Roethlisberger, and he could help this offense significantly. The Steelers, by the way, believe the wrist injury he’s been dealing with is not an issue now.

    Keeper League Analysis: The logical assumption is that he’s the eventual replacement for Hines Ward. If so, he’ll be in a pretty good spot, playing alongside Santonio Holmes in what should be a pretty good offense. Sweed has nice upside if he’s willing to be coached up, and his improvement from 2006 to 2007 suggests he will come through and have a solid NFL career, so he’s a worthy pick for down the road.

View 10 other players analyzed plus keeper league rankings for all players at the position with comments here.

Tight Ends

 

  1. John Carlson (Sea) – Many felt the Seahawks reached on Carlson in the 2nd round (38th overall), but Seattle was actually concerned he’d be gone by the time they picked next in the 3rd round. What likely sold them on him is his ability to contribute as a receiver and a blocker. He’s not a very athletic receiver, so he will be only an intermediate weapon, yet with only Jeb Putzier (who is a poor blocker) to beat out, Carlson may actually be in the driver’s seat to open the season as the starter. But while he’s a high-effort prospect with good intangibles, he may be the worst player we’ve ever ranked #1 at any position in any list of any kind.

    Keeper League Analysis: His ranking has everything to do with his opportunity this year, so don’t for a minute think Carlson’s this year’s top TE for a keeper league. There are 3-5 other players who have more potential for the long term, so Carlson’s not exactly a player you should be excited about for a keeper or dynasty league.

  1. Dustin Keller (NYJ) – Keller is a former wideout with athleticism and speed, and he’s been a guy who has made a lot of plays. Keller will be a Dallas Clark type of tight end for the Jets. He can’t line up as a line of scrimmage TE who will block people. He’s not explosive or a premier athlete, but he’s smooth. He can run after the catch, and he’s a tough and physical receiver. He’s a good-looking receiver and will be used as a slot guy, H-back, a move guy, etc. The Jets are counting on him big time this year, since Chris Baker is an average receiver who is unhappy with his contract. Even though Baker will be the starter, the Jets have to play Keller right away because they need his playmaking ability. If Chad Pennington wins the starting job, which is very possible, then he could look to Keller a lot from Day One.

    Keeper League Analysis: Only time will tell if the Jets reached badly on Keller, but for now he looks like a solid keeper league prospect. The Jets clearly have designs on taking advantage of his downfield ability and making him a major part of their passing game. He will, however, have to work on improving his blocking if he’s to settle in as the team’s top TE. Baker, at least, is probably gone in 1-2 years.   

  1. Fred Davis (Was) – There seems to be a growing trend in the NFL of teams looking to add a second playmaking TE to their roster, and that was the case with the Redskins, a team that already had a young receiving threat at the position in Chris Cooley. As much as we like Cooley, he’s not the most athletic TE you’ll find, yet it was still a little curious how Washington used such an early pick on a TE (48th overall). The Redskins clearly want to run a 2-TE offense, which is why they took Davis. But he’s not a great blocker. A former wideout, Davis is a smaller tight end, yet he’s a player whose game has been on the rise, and he should create mismatches early in his career and give the Redskins another weapon in their new West Coast offense. But with Cooley around, he’s not much of a fantasy prospect this year. And if he keeps missing team workouts as he did in their post-draft minicamp, then he could spend a lot of time in Chateau Bow Wow this year.   

    Keeper League Analysis: He’s more like an L.J. Smith in terms of his movement, not a stud like Kellen Winslow. In other words, he could be a solid player, but he won’t be special. And Cooley’s only 25 years old, so Davis will be hard-pressed to make a big impact these next few years.  

  1. Martellus Bennett (Dal) – Bennett is the most complete TE in this draft in terms of size, athleticism, and his willingness to block. A former basketball player, he moves very well and uses his body well. He needs to learn to run better routes, and he needs to improve in all areas, so while he’ll likely help the team and make some plays this year, he’s a year or two away from being ready to fulfill his potential. And, of course, he’s behind Jason Witten. But he’s an upgrade at the #2 TE spot over Anthony Fasano, and he’ll give quarterback Tony Romo and the Cowboys one more weapon to utilize, if not sparingly this year.  

    Keeper League Analysis: It’s hard to feel good about Bennett’s keeper league value with the youthful Witten entrenched as the starter for years to come, but you also have to recognize how he might be the best TE in this class. He’s also in a good situation on the Cowboys. With that said, he’s worth a flyer in a dynasty league.

  2. Jermichael Finley (GB) – He’s an athletic player who can stretch the field. He’s very tall, but too lanky. He needs to bulk up before he’ll be able to seriously help their offense. But with Bubba Franks gone, Donald Lee is the only proven TE on the roster, so Finley may play a lot in his rookie season if he can quickly improve his blocking.

    Keeper League Analysis: Ideally, he’ll be utilized much like Denver’s Tony Scheffler has been used the last two years. The Broncos have Daniel Graham as their “starter,” yet Scheffler is their vertical threat, and the guy with the fantasy juice. Finley has a long way to go before he can be considered a viable fantasy option for the short-term, but as one of the best pure receivers in this draft class, and in a good situation, he’s worth a shot in a dynasty league.

 View 10 other players analyzed plus keeper league rankings for all players at the position with comments here.



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