I'm a Viking fan. I'm not too happy about that fact most times, but I can't help it; I'm stuck with them for life. I've witnessed live two hideous playoff losses in the NFC title game, and I've seen countless others on TV.  Like in 1989, when they got lambasted by the 49ers in the playoffs 41-13, or in the 1996 playoffs, when the Cowboys trounced them 40-15. In both of those games, the Vikings finished the contest with a young QB, one who didn't even begin the season as their starter. I remember thinking both times that, even though the Vikings were dying like dogs, maybe there was some hope for the future, since these youngsters looked like they had some potential. The 49ers and Cowboys both won the Super Bowl those years, but neither of the two young Viking QBs ever brought Minnesota to the Promised Land. 

But today those two former Viking QBs are playing in the Super Bowl, and one of them will, in fact, lead his team to that elusive Promised Land.   

That Rich Gannon, out of football in 1994, and Brad Johnson, drafted in a round so high that doesn't even exist anymore, are facing off in today's Super Bowl is yet another example of how unpredictable the NFL is these days.  A few years before the 1999 season, Kurt Warner was stacking and packing groceries. Shortly after the ’99 season ended, he packed his bags for Honolulu, Super Bowl ring and NFL MVP trophy in hand. What's next, Ray Lucas and Jake Delhomme squaring off in Super Bowl XXXVIII? I'm not ruling it out.

But I’m no longer frustrated with how irregular the NFL has become, and, in fact, I relish trying to realize the fantasy implications of a league consumed by parity. I am no better than you; I am also amazed by what I see every year, and I think there are many valuable lessons to be learned with each NFL season that passes, regardless of whether you’re considered an expert or not. The one difference between you and me, though, is that you probably don’t have all day to ponder these lessons. I do, and I have, so in case you weren’t paying attention, I’ve listed below 2002’s additions to my personal fantasy football manual.

Note: There were many other lessons fantasy owners should have learned in 2002, but these are only the ones that weren't as obvious to me before the start of the season. 

• Don’t ever draft a QB in the first round

This is no great revelation on my part, but I’d be negligent if I didn’t mention the laundry list of solid 2002 QB producers who weren’t even considered in the first 10 rounds of every fantasy draft in the county. Guys like Chad Pennington, Tommy Maddox, Jon Kitna, Marc Bulger, Brad Johnson, and Matt Hasselbeck, among others.

My 2002 draft strategy of securing a stud QB in the 3^rd round was based upon the 2001 season, in which there were only 8-9 rock solid and consistent QBs to be had. But 2001 proved to be the exception to the norm when it came to QBs, and the previous trend of there being a wealth of talent at the QB position was back in a big way in 2002. I think most fantasy owners know this, so it should be more important than ever to hold off on drafting your QB in 2003 because, not only will there be some excellent sleepers beyond, say, the 5^th round, but there will be some fantastic value picks, with many owners choosing to stock up on RBs and WRs before grabbing a QB.

This notion was already confirmed in the mock draft that was recently conducted by some of the more hardcore fantasy fans on our message board. Granted, it’s early and things will change, but check out these value picks in this 10-team league:

• Peyton Manning – 5^th round, 42^nd pick overall
• Rich Gannon – 5^th round, 47^th pick overall
• Aaron Brooks – 7^th round, 65^th pick overall
• Jeff Garcia – 8^th round, 75^th pick overall
• Drew Bledsoe – 9^th round, 82^nd pick overall
• Steve McNair – 9^th round, 90^th pick overall
• Tommy Maddox – 10^th round, 96^th pick overall
• Matt Hasselbeck – 10^th round, 100^th pick overall
• Trent Green – Not drafted in top-100
• Brad Johnson – Not drafted in top-100
• Patrick Ramsey - Not drafted in top-100

If I were drafting for real today, I would probably select 4 RBs, 4 WRs, and 1 TE in the first 9 rounds and then use my next two, possibly three, picks on QBs like Maddox, Hasselbeck, Green, Ramsey, etc. All I would need then would be for one of them to pan out and I’d be set. Or, if I felt the RBs and WRs I took in the first 7 rounds or so were excellent, or if I didn’t think too much of the remaining RBs and WRs, I’d be more than happy to use a 6^th, 7^th or 8^th round pick on a guy like Brooks or Garcia. Whatever route I go, the bottom line is that I’m avoiding QBs early and I’m still assembling an excellent fantasy team.

As crazy as it sounds because I love the guy’s fantasy potential, one thing I can envision myself preaching this summer is why one shouldn’t draft Atlanta’s Michael Vick, who you’ll likely have to take over a stud RB or WR. That strategy would not be a negative reflection on Vick – not at all – but a reflection of the depth at the QB position in 2003.

• League unpredictability does Waiver Wire Wonders

There are those who spend more time preparing for their fantasy football draft than they did their SATs, yet with the league so unpredictable, those people will still likely be dumbfounded at times with what actually happens on the field.

Unanticipated events like the fall of Kurt Warner can make fantasy football frustrating, but from where I’m standing, the ever-changing status of players and teams makes working the waiver wire more fun and vital than ever. In 2002, you could have had a horrible draft, yet come playoff time, you could have easily been right in the thick of things, thanks to the waiver wire. Doing what I do, I have a real good feel for which players were generally available after the start of the regular season in your average 10 or 12-team league. Some of them were:

• Chad Pennington – QB, NYJ
• Tommy Maddox – QB, Pit
• Brad Johnson – QB, TB
• Mark Bulger – QB, Stl
• Matt Hasselbeck – QB, Sea
• Clinton Portis – RB, Den (I’m sure he was available in only 10% of the leagues out there)
• Moe Williams – RB, Min (11 TDs)
• William Green – RB, Cle
• Marcel Shipp – RB, Ari
• Donald Driver – WR, GB
• Chad Johnson – WRs, Cin
• Koren Robinson – WR, Sea
• Tai Streets – WR, SF
• Travis Taylor – WR, Bal
• Donte Stallworth – WR, NO
• Todd Heap – TE, Bal
• Randy McMichael – TE, Mia
• Billy Miller – TE, Hou

Since it’s impossible to predict accurately what will happen in a given year team-wise, it’s also impossible to conduct a pre-season fantasy draft that will reflect what the upcoming NFL season has in store. What this means is that there will always be a large list of soon-to-be solid fantasy producers who are left on the draft board each year and who will be available on the Waiver Wire. The league is loaded with talent now, and even if it’s on a trial and error basis, you’ve got to find some of that talent on the WW each year because it’s going to be there.

• Player rankings are only a reference point

Ranking players is by far the hardest thing I do each preseason. I’m going to admit something that may irk some people: Sometimes I don’t follow my own rankings when drafting. Yes, I certainly refer to them and use them as a guideline, but if I want, say a RB, I don’t necessarily take the first one on the list not already crossed off.

Maybe I need to improve my rankings, maybe I don’t, but the problem with player rankings is that they can never truly account for the flow of your draft and what the best move to make is, based on that flow and the team you’ve drafted up until the point you’re at.

Say, for example, you were drafting in 2002 and locked in a pair of stud RBs, two real good WRs, and a solid QB. At this point, you feel like you can take some chances, since you’re feeling so good about your roster. You want to go RB and the top remaining choices for your RB3 (based on our actual 2002 player rankings) were Warrick Dunn, Duce Staley, Charlie Garner, and Clinton Portis. Dunn, Staley, and Garner all deserved to be ranked in the mid-20s, since they were each very solid #3 fantasy backs, but only Portis, in reality, had the potential to be a super #2 fantasy back, or even a #1 back. I was faced with this exact decision in one of my expert league and I took Portis, so I went against my own rankings. One thing people have to remember is that the difference between a RB ranked #20 and #25 can be incredibly minimal, so it’s then up to the drafter to determine if he or she should take a chance and go for upside (Portis) or take a safer player (Garner). Note: In our preseason rankings, we have a column to indicate players who have upside. We gave that indication to Portis and did not to the other three backs.

Another great example is Travis Henry, whom I was very high on and wrote extensively about in terms of his being a sleeper, but whom I ranked a little too low based on a few issues that turned out to be minor. Next time, if I get a good feeling about a player like Portis or Henry, I’ll be a little more aggressive when ranking him, and I’ll simply explain that the ranking is an aggressive one and that the player has more downside than several players rankings behind him (but much more upside).

I’ve also learned this year that I need to adjust my thinking when it comes to my rankings overall. In the past, I’ve been sucked into ranking certain positions, namely QBs and WRs, higher than I really wanted to. This past summer, it was an accepted notion that Ram QB Kurt Warner had to be ranked in the top-10. I ranked him low in the top-10, but I still ranked him in the top-10. The problem was that I wouldn’t have drafted him in the top-10 and didn’t in any of my leagues, so, in a sense, my top-100 weren’t really my top-100.

Admittedly, ranking all positions overall is really tough because one just cannot predict how a draft will go. And when ranking, putting QBs and WRs high is kind of a damned-if-you-do damned-if-you-don’t prospect. Warner should have been ranked in the top-10 because he should have been a top-10 fantasy producer, but what ranking him that high does not consider is the value, and drafting him that high, even if he wound up being a top-10 producer, doesn’t properly account for value. For example, say Warner had another good season and finished as a top-10 fantasy producer. He wouldn’t have hurt you in that case, but if you instead drafted a sleeper QB who wound up being, say, a top-25 fantasy producer, the value would have been much better.

I have never put much stock in anyone’s top-100 list, even including mine, but I think that will change in 2003 because I’m actually going to rank players in the exact order I would draft them (or at least closer than I have been). If that means that my top-20 players are RBs, so be it (they are not, though, given the future uncertainty surrounding many backs). Last year, if I had the sack to rank Warner about 20, where I wanted to, I would have gotten a ton of hate mail, but I also would have appeared to be fantasy’s version of a brain surgeon. I think this change in philosophy will help readers more.

• Previous season disappointments make nice sleepers

It’s little consolation for those who drafted them, but at least those who bought into my 2001 hype regarding Trent Green and Michael Bennett saw in 2002 why I liked them so much. Green quietly had a great season. He ranked 7^th in the NFL in passing yards; there were only three QBs with 10 or more starts who had a higher passer rating (Gannon, Pennington, and Brad Johnson); and only three QBs threw more TD passes than he. As for Bennett, he finished 11^th in the NFL in rushing (3^rd in the NFC) and would have ranked around 6^th in the league had he gotten more carries early. Another good example of a player I liked in 2001 who did well in 2002 was Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck. I wasn’t surprised that these guys did well because there were reasons why I liked them in 2001, and it was those exact reasons why they did well in 2002. Sometimes, I’m just a year too early.

As for the lesson that should have been learned in 2002 it’s that we shouldn’t give up on a previous year’s "sleeper" who disappointed, especially if that player showed flashes of potential in his disappointing season, as Green and Bennett did in 2001. In fact, since players like Green and Bennett were not only relatively unproven (but with potential, thus, the sleeper tag), but also since they were disappointments in 2001, they made for even better bargains in 2002. Sure, there are some sleeper players that bust and won’t ever fulfill their potential, but there will be plenty of players who eventually get it together and will present nice bargains on the heels of their bust season.

I actually don’t see a lot of players that come to mind in terms of fitting this description this coming year, but Seattle WR Darrell Jackson is a real good example, and Falcon RB TJ Duckett could be another one. And, dare I say Chief WR Johnnie Morton could surprise in his second year in Kansas City.

• The cream tends to rise to the top

I made this exact point last year in this article when talking about Bear RB Anthony Thomas and the Chicago running game. This year, the example is Bronco RB Clinton Portis, and it’s a much better one. Portis had a great pedigree coming off a National Championship in Miami, a team that might have beaten the 2001 Bengals, and he was clearly the most talented back on the Broncos. However, he wasn’t officially named the starter until around Week Five, and his fumbling problem in the preseason was a pretty serious concern. Those factors prompted us to keep him ranked lower than we wanted to (in the mid-20s), but we definitely pushed the guy hard this past summer, and thank god we did.

As I stated above, ranking players is difficult when their roles are not yet defined. But even if a guy like Portis isn’t starting in the preseason, we’ve seen over and over again that the cream does rise to the top in the NFL, so a player’s preseason status on the depth chart can sometimes mean little.

There were other good examples at the WR position. This past summer we listed WRs Chad Johnson and Koren Robinson on our sleeper list and had a very good reason why: They are both very talented players. Neither of them opened the season as his team’s #1 WR. Johnson, in fact, was a member of one of the league’s worst WRs committees. But eventually, the cream – Johnson and Robinson – rose to the top, and those two guys were real nice fantasy producers the second half of the season and their teams’ #1 WR. Make sure you keep this in mind this coming summer, when you’re deciding between, say, Dallas’ Antonio Bryant and, say, Patriot WR David Patten in the 13^th round.

• Buying low can be profitable

When Steeler WR Plaxico Burress had 2 catches for 22 yards total through two games, we told subscribers to trade for him. We did the same thing when Seattle RB Shaun Alexander got off to such a poor start and with Jet WR Laveranues Coles. There was actually a point early in the season when Terrell Owens’ owners were incredibly frustrated with the receiver’s production. At that time, we begged people to trade for him on the cheap. There were many other good examples of buying low last year (we made many recommendations, although some didn’t work out).

As is the case each year, fantasy owners in 2002 were able to dramatically improve their rosters in a hurry by trading for struggling studs or potential studs. Many fantasy owners grow impatient and quickly get frustrated with a struggling stud, so you can prey on their emotions and flat-out rob them. Sometimes you can even pick up these players off the waiver wire.

In the future, if you want to target a struggling star early in the season, here’s what to look for:

1. Has the player performed in the past?
2. Is the player relied upon in his offense?
3. Is the player in a good offensive system?
4. Does the player have a favorable upcoming schedule and/or is the player possibly struggling because of a difficult schedule that will get easier?

Rookie RBs off to slow starts are also great players to trade for. Bronco RB Clinton Portis was averaging only 51 yards rushing and had just 1 TD through 4 games. We continually said then to trade for him because it was only a matter of time before he started producing. Another great example, and one I’m proud to say we were all over, was Brown RB William Green. Way back in late September, when he had 95 yards rushing total and 0 TDs, we said the following:

"We expected him to be slow off the mark this year, but we do expect him to find his way in the second half of the season, and he has a very favorable schedule for the crucial fantasy playoff weeks."

The answers to our four questions above regarding Green were:

1. Yes (but in college).
2. Yes (he was their #1 pick and expected to be their featured back).
3. Pretty much (Butch Davis threw a lot, but he loves the power running game).
4. Yes (and that was a big key).

The key to trading for struggling studs (or potential studs) is, of course, the value. Your deals won’t always work out – we recommended, for example, taking a chance on trading for Ram QB Kurt Warner in Week Four, since his value had hit rock bottom. But, in general, if you can acquire 1-2 players who were someone else’s first or second round draft picks during the season, the odds are good that you’ll be glad you did. And since you’re getting such great value, you likely won’t be hurt badly if you take a chance on, say, a guy like Warner.

• Downgrade injured studs who are playing hurt

This is one of the more important lessons I learned in 2002. Packer QB Brett Favre will go down in history as one of the greatest – if not the greatest – iron men of all time. He didn’t miss a game in 2002, but he injured his knee, and he clearly wasn’t the same player after he did. Although not a stud, another good example was Seattle QB Trent Dilfer, who I still think would have been real good had he not injured his knee in the pre-season but who was clearly limited by the injury.

And if RB Edgerrin James wasn’t a lesson learned I don’t know who is.

It’s easy to rationalize that your injured player will tough it out and perform at his normal level when playing hurt, but most of the time that’s not the case, so you should brace yourself for lesser production. And in the future, if you have an injured stud player and a suitable backup for him, you might want to consider trading the stud player who is playing hurt if you can get proper value because the chances are good that his production will drop due to his injury.

• Sleeper RBs rule

I wrote an article this past summer called "How not to draft," and I called it that because I was a firm believer in drafting two RBs with your first two picks. In the draft that prompted me to write the article, I took Marvin Harrison in the second round (Holmes was my first pick) over some RBs, namely Fred Taylor, who I claimed at the time was the pick I should have made. I still believe in the idea that 2 RBs is the way to go, but in the 6^th round I was able to draft RB Tiki Barber, who performed like a 2^nd round pick, and better than Taylor. If you can pull it off, drafting a stud WR in the second round (after drafting a stud RB in the 1^st) and then snapping up a sleeper RB in the 5^th- 7^th round can make your starting lineup devastatingly strong.

This isn’t a very insightful lesson, but one thing I did learn is that if you can locate a sleeper RB – great examples from this past year – were Barber, Clinton Portis, and Travis Henry – then drafting two RBs the first two rounds may not be the way to go. It seems every year there’s a group of RBs drafted between the 3^rd and 6^th rounds who perform like 1^st-rounders. This year, I’ll be working overtime to figure out who they’ll be.

• A receiver is only as good as his QB

On September 16^th, if you had logged onto to our message boards, you would have seen a ton of posts on the topic of one Plaxico Burress. We loved Burress this year because he was typically available 50+ picks into a draft, yet we felt he had the potential to be a top-10 fantasy WR. But through 2 games, Burress had 2 catches for 22 yards total. People were ripping us on the boards and by e-mail, wondering if we had the slightest clue about the game of football. Thankfully for us and for those who drafted Burress, QB Kordell Stewart was benched and Tommy Maddox came to the rescue. I was still somewhat disappointed in Burress’ production, but 1325 yards and 7 TDs was nothing to sneeze at.

There were other examples, too, of receivers’ season being saved by a QB switch, like Jet WR Laveranues Coles. He’s another guy we were taking a massive amount of heat on early in the season. Through the first three games of the season, Coles had a measly 46 yards receiving on 6 catches. But once Vinny Testaverde was benched and Chad Pennington inserted, Coles was one of the most consistent producers in the league, averaging 6 catches and 93.6 yards per game the final 13 games. It was probably no coincidence, too, that Bengal WR Chad Johnson averaged 90 yards receiving the final 12 games with QB Jon Kitna starting, after averaging only 19 per game the first four games.

Another point that should be made regarding QBs and WRs is chemistry. In 2002, there were many cases in which a QB and WR essentially came out of nowhere and exhibited excellent chemistry. Burress and Maddox, Pennington and Coles, and Kitna and Johnson were the top examples. But Raven WR Travis Taylor really came on with Jeff Blake at QB, Eagle WR Todd Pinkston worked peculiarly well with backup QB A.J. Feeley, and Chief WR Marc Boerigter scored a shocking 8 TDs thrown by QB Trent Green. There is no question that picking up on a QB’s chemistry with his WR before anyone else in their league gave fantasy owners a decided advantage in 2002.

• A team’s #3 WR can kill your #1 WR

One trend we saw in 2002 was a bigger reliance on the pass and the use of multiple receiver sets. This trend produced huge passing totals for offenses like Oakland, New England, New Orleans, Buffalo, and even Cleveland, and it was great news for those teams’ QBs. But what it did in many cases was lower the production of the teams’ #1 or #1A WRs. In Oakland, Jerry Porter scored more TDs than Jerry Rice and Tim Brown combined. In New Orleans, rookie WR Donte Stallworth scored more TDs than #1 guy, veteran Joe Horn. In New England, although no one player had a big year, the frequent use of multiple-receiver sets hurt WR Troy Brown’s fantasy value. And in Cleveland, WR Kevin Johnson, the clear #1 WR the previous two years, was turned into just a member of a committee of WRs.

As I said above, this trend was a good thing for the fantasy production at the QB position, and that’s something I will definitely take into account when ranking the QBs in 2003. But with the spreading of the wealth in the passing likely to continue in 2003, fantasy owners need to adjust their thinking a little bit. Not only does this trend make guys like Horn, Rice, Brown, and Johnson a little less valuable, but guys like Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, and Randy Moss – true #1 WRs who are the clear go-to guys, also are more valuable than ever.

On the negative side, the best example of a receiver suffering due to poor QB play was Bear WR Marty Booker, whose production was horrible the final five games of the season with QB Jim Miller out or incredibly limited.

• WRs with size give a sizable advantage

I was in a playoff game Week Fifteen and needed 100 yards from WR Derrick Mason against the Patriots. Mason came up 14 yards short, and I lost. While watching Mason play, I realized that he wasn’t a true #1 fantasy WR because his lack of size limited him a little. He got open plenty, and he caught a good number of passes, but had he been a little bigger and more physical, he probably would have been able to fight for those 14 yards after his catches. Not only did I fail to win because Mason wasn’t physical enough, but I lost that playoff game also because my opponent had 49er QB Jeff Garcia, who threw a TD pass to the most physical wideout in the league, Terrell Owens. Owens caught a pass at around the 10 and literally carried Packer CB Mike McKenzie on his back into the endzone, and that play ultimately put my opponent ahead of me to stay.

In the future, I will place more of a premium on the league’s bigger and more physical WRs because those guys – players like Owens, Eric Moulds, David Boston, Plaxico Burress, etc. – are harder to contain. Guys like Mason, Laveranues Coles, and Troy Brown are great players, but they in are easier to contain a given week. And if that given week is your playoff week, and you need 100 yards from them, there’s a pretty good chance that they’ll come up small for you as Mason did for me. I have two more words for you that confirm this lesson: Johnnie Morton.

• Jerry Rice is a freak

The real lesson learned has to do with aging WRs – except for Rice. In 2002 we saw a few thirty-something WRs – like the Smiths, Rod and Jimmy – age in a hurry and frustrate fantasy fans with mediocre production. I don’t know how one can effectively handle the age issue because it has to be dealt with on a case-by-case basis. But clearly, Rice is a freak of nature, and we should probably assume that WRs in the 32-33 year old range should be downgraded at least a little because, as we saw in 2002, a player’s downside can begin quickly.

At the very least, the under-whelming seasons logged in by the Smiths, who ironically each finished with 1027 receiving yards, gave evidence that young wideouts still in their prime should be coveted.

• Rookie QBs taken early will play

Not a very useful or insightful lesson, but it deserves mentioning. Rookie QBs Joey Harrington and Patrick Ramsey opened the season as backups, but they finished as starters. Each showed potential, but both, to no one’s surprise, took their lumps at times. The lesson learned is if a team drafts a QB in the first round, the odds are good he’ll play plenty, so you should consider downgrading his team’s WRs a little. A possible example this year could be Bengal WR Chad Johnson, if the team selects Carson Palmer.

• If an aging player has been a dog, the odds are good he will continue to one

I did buy into the notion that Viking WR Derrick Alexander had some great value this past year. I especially liked that fact that he was available so late, so I thought his upside far outweighed his downside. But as Alexander, Michael Westbrook, Freddie Jones, and even Terry Glenn proved, it’s rare that an NFL veteran, with a history of malfunction, turns it around and produces as he’s capable of. If you’re taking a chance on a guy like this real late, then fine, but personally I’d rather take a chance on an emerging youngster toward the end of my draft.

• Forget about Team Defenses and Place Kickers until late

Okay, I won’t argue with taking Tampa Bay’s defense relatively early next year, but other than that, there’s no reason to be one of the first people to draft a defense. The league is too unpredictable, thanks to player movement and coaching changes, to accurately predict how an entire defensive unit will perform, so it’s silly to assume one will by taking them very early. If you don’t find a good one before the season starts, there’s a real good chance you’ll do so once the season does start.

At PK, there are always great options drafted 3-4 rounds after the top guys are off the board. This past year, PKs Martin Gramatica, Sebastian Janikowski, and Ryan Longwell were super bargains, and there will be more in 2003.

• Watch off-season conditioning

I can think of a few players off the top of my head that I think were hurt badly by a lack of off-season/preseason workouts. Colt RB Edgerrin James is clearly the top guy, but it’s hard to say what his off-season conditioning was like, since he did it on his own. Steeler RB Jerome Bettis wasn’t able to work out as much this past off-season because of injury, and it showed. Chief TE Tony Gonzalez held out this past summer and came up small, as did Jaguar WR Jimmy Smith, who missed most of training camp. This is definitely a factor that I will be paying attention to this off-season.