A Snapshot of the Average Draft

by Mike Horn

Staff Writer, FantasyGuru.com
Posted: 8/31/07
 

Again, there have been changes since the last snapshot, so once more Iíve modified my example on how to use this information (see bold text below).  Iíve also updated my some analysis on how draft patterns have shifted since the last ADP report.  See the bullet comments at the end of the text.  If youíre familiar with this report, you might want to skip to the changes.

 

These charts are built from the ADP data that Dom Korbel has gathered and posted this week (dated 8/31/07). I take his data sorted from 1-150 and, through the miracle of spreadsheets, I count the positions of each player drafted in each round (as deep as the ADP data goes). Thatís Chart 1 (the 12-team charts are used in the explanatory part of the article; 8, 10, and 16-team charts are at the end).

 

12 Team Leagues, CHART 1:  # Of Players Picked By Position In Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RB

11

5

3

5

3

3

3

2

4

3

2

2

WR

0

5

7

5

4

3

5

6

4

2

0

6

QB

1

2

1

2

3

2

1

1

2

2

3

2

TE

0

0

1

0

1

3

2

2

1

0

4

1

Def

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

0

4

3

0

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

Tot

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

12

 

So for this weekís data we can see that in RD1, 11 RBs were drafted; RD2 = 5; RD3 = 3, etc. This helps you determine where the runs on player positions might be when planning your draft strategy.

 

Then I add up the CUMULATIVE number of players picked at each position by the end of the round (Chart 2):

 

12 Tm Leagues, CHART 2:  Cum Total # Of Players Picked By the End Of Each Rd

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RB

11

16

19

24

27

30

33

35

39

42

44

46

WR

0

5

12

17

21

24

29

35

39

41

41

47

QB

1

3

4

6

9

11

12

13

15

17

20

22

TE

0

0

1

1

2

5

7

9

10

10

14

15

Def

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

4

4

8

11

11

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

2

3

Tot

12

24

36

48

60

72

84

96

108

120

132

144

 

In Chart 2, the ď19Ē in the RD3 column tells you by the end of RD 3, 19 RBs are taken in an AVERAGE 12-team draft. When the draft is actually taking place you can track how many players are gone vs. how many are expected to be taken (TGRís draft tool does something like this automatically if you use it). Knowing this info helps adjust your drafting on the fly.

 

But these charts are not very visual or intuitive. So I provide the data display in Chart 3:


 

12 Team Leagues, CHART 3:  Player Pool Being Drafted From In Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RB

RB1

RB2

RB2

RB2

RB3

RB3

RB3

RB3

RB4

RB4

RB4

RB4

WR

0

WR1

WR1

WR2

WR2

WR2

WR3

WR3

WR4

WR4

WR4

WR4

QB

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

TE

0

0

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE2

TE2

Def

0

0

0

0

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

PK1

PK1

PK1

PK1

 

Green = a major run at a position (more than five picked in a round)

Yellow = a minor run (more than three RBs or WRs; more than two of any other position taken).

 

The ďpoolsĒ of players are based on league size, so in this example ďRB1Ē = the top 12 running backs in ADP. For an 8-team league, there would be eight backs in the RB1 pool. The numbers indicate when a pool starts being drafted. So WR1s start in RD2 and WR2s in RD4. The chart doesnít indicate necessarily when a pool is empty. There might be RB2s still being drafted in RD5 (this can be confirmed by looking at the cumulative chart Ė actually the 24th RB went late in RD4 im this case) but the RB3s start going off the board and last at least through RD8.

 

For example, from Chart 3 above, where are the RB runs likely to be in a 12 team draft based on ADPs? A major run on RBs will be in Round 1, with minor RB runs in Rounds 2, 4, and 9.

 

Letís look at how you might use this in building a draft plan. Your Round Six pick will be early in the round. Your current plan is to have two RBs, two WRs, and a QB by this point in the draft. Now you need a third WR and a TE for your starting lineup and want to get your RB3.

 

Chart 3 shows you there will be runs in this round on TEs and one has just ended on QBs. There will be a WR run in the next round but for now WR2s are still available. There will still be TE1s, WR3s, and RB3s left by the end of Round 7 and through Round 8 (major WR run in Round 8).

 

By the end of Round 5, 21 WRs are off the board (Chart 2).  Over the next two rounds, seven more will be drafted (Chart 1).  If you take a WR now, you can still get a WR2-quality receiver for your WR3.  Thatís a good move Ė if you wait, youíll be choosing among WR3s by the time the snake comes back.

 

Meanwhile, 27 RBs are gone, so youíre already in RB3 territory.  Six will be taken in the next two rounds, but you can possibly wait to get you RB3. With only two TEs drafted through five rounds, there are still some of the best TEs left.  Five more are expected to go in Rounds 6-7.  At the end of Round 7, you should be able to take either an RB3 or TE but there will probably have been a decline in quality available.

 

So youíve got a tough decision.  Do you take that WR2-type player, knowing that you probably will have dropped a tier or two in TE quality before you pick again?  Do you sacrifice starters at those positions to get a better depth player at RB?  Normally, Iíd go for the WR2 here.  But it really depends on the players available and the ones I already have.  If Iíve got an injury-prone RB1 or RB2 and a huge upside player like Adrian Peterson is left, Iíd probably grab him.  If Iím real comfortable with my current RBs and WRs, and Iím sure that an upside WR like Bernard Berrian will still be around at the end of the 7th, I might draft my TE here. There are all kinds of possibilities, these are just a couple.

 

With these charts, you can see at a glance when to get ahead of the runs and when you can sit tight and wait on a position. You may want to plan individual players in more detail, of course, and never get so locked into your plan that you donít take advantage of opportunities, but this chart lets you see what plans are feasible. Happy drafting.

 

Changes in patterns and trends:

 

 

Hereís the other charts:

 

8 Team Leagues, CHART 1:  # Of Players Picked By Position In Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RD 13

RD 14

RD 15

RD 16

RD 17

RD 18

RB

8

5

4

3

3

1

2

2

1

5

3

1

2

2

0

1

1

2

WR

0

2

2

4

3

5

5

3

3

2

1

4

2

2

4

3

1

2

QB

0

1

2

1

1

1

0

1

2

0

2

2

2

1

1

1

2

2

TE

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

2

2

0

1

1

1

0

1

1

1

2

Def

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

1

0

1

2

1

1

2

0

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

0

Tot

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

 

8 Team Leagues, CHART 2:  Cumulative Total # Of Players Picked By the End Of Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RD 13

RD 14

RD 15

RD 16

RD 17

RD 18

RB

8

13

17

20

23

24

26

28

29

34

37

38

40

42

42

43

44

46

WR

0

2

4

8

11

16

21

24

27

29

30

34

36

38

42

45

46

48

QB

0

1

3

4

5

6

6

7

9

9

11

13

15

16

17

18

20

22

TE

0

0

0

0

1

2

2

4

6

6

7

8

9

9

10

11

12

14

Def

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

2

3

3

4

6

7

8

10

10

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

3

4

4

Tot

8

16

24

32

40

48

56

64

72

80

88

96

104

112

120

128

136

144

 

8 Team Leagues, CHART 3:  Player Pool Being Drafted From In Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RD 13

RD 14

RD 15

RD 16

RD 17

RD 18

RB

RB1

RB2

RB3

RB3

RB3

RB3

RB4

RB4

RB4

RB5

RB5

RB5

RB5

RB6

RB6

RB6

RB6

RB6

WR

0

WR1

WR1

WR1

WR2

WR2

WR3

WR3

WR4

WR4

WR4

WR5

WR5

WR5

WR6

WR6

WR6

WR6

QB

0

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB3

QB3

QB3

QB3

TE

0

0

0

0

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE2

TE2

TE2

TE2

TE2

TE2

Def

0

0

0

0

0

0

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D2

D2

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

PK1

PK1

PK1

PK1

PK1

 

Notice that there are not very many placekickers being drafted based on ADP by the time many 8-team leagues have stopped drafting. This is misleading, and just shows that after the first few kickers, there is no consensus on who to draft.

 

10 Team Leagues, CHART 1:  # Of Players Picked By Position In Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RD 13

RD 14

RB

10

4

4

3

3

4

1

4

2

3

2

3

1

2

WR

0

5

3

4

6

3

4

1

3

4

5

3

4

2

QB

0

1

3

2

0

1

4

1

0

3

1

1

0

2

TE

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

2

3

0

1

0

3

1

Def

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

2

2

0

0

3

1

1

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

2

Tot

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

 

10 Team Leagues, CHART 2:  Cumulative Total # Of Players Picked By the End Of Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RD 13

RD 14

RB

10

14

18

21

24

28

29

33

35

38

40

43

44

46

WR

0

5

8

12

18

21

25

26

29

33

38

41

45

47

QB

0

1

4

6

6

7

11

12

12

15

16

17

17

19

TE

0

0

0

1

2

3

4

6

9

9

10

10

13

14

Def

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

3

5

5

5

8

9

10

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

4

Tot

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

 

10 Team Leagues, CHART 3:  Player Pool Being Drafted From In Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RD 10

RD 11

RD 12

RD 13

RD 14

RB

RB1

RB2

RB2

RB3

RB3

RB3

RB3

RB4

RB4

RB4

RB4

RB5

RB5

RB5

WR

0

WR1

WR1

WR2

WR2

WR3

WR3

WR3

WR3

WR4

WR4

WR5

WR5

WR5

QB

0

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

QB2

TE

0

0

0

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE2

TE2

Def

0

0

0

0

0

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

D1

PK

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

PK1

PK1

PK1

PK1

 

16 Team Leagues, CHART 1:  # Of Players Picked By Position In Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RB

14

4

7

3

4

5

3

4

2

WR

1

8

7

5

9

3

7

1

6

QB

1

3

2

4

0

4

2

3

3

TE

0

1

0

3

2

1

2

4

1

Def

0

0

0

1

1

2

2

3

2

PK

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

2

Tot

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

16

 

16 Team Leagues, CHART 2:  Cumulative Total # Of Players Picked By the End Of Each Rd

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RB

14

18

25

28

32

37

40

44

46

WR

1

9

16

21

30

33

40

41

47

QB

1

4

6

10

10

14

16

19

22

TE

0

1

1

4

6

7

9

13

14

Def

0

0

0

1

2

4

6

9

11

PK

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

2

4

Tot

16

32

48

64

80

96

112

128

144

 

16 Team Leagues, CHART 3:  Player Pool Being Drafted From In Each Round

Pos

RD 1

RD 2

RD 3

RD 4

RD 5

RD 6

RD 7

RD 8

RD 9

RB

RB1

RB2

RB2

RB2

RB2

RB3

RB3

RB3

RB3

WR

WR1

WR1

WR1

WR2

WR2

WR3

WR3

WR3

WR3

QB

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB1

QB2

QB2

TE

0

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1

TE1