Startup Dynasty League Draft Review
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Lord knows, I want to cover Dynasty Leagues more and appease the hardcore readers who play in this format. But I’m afraid to admit that I’ve never even played in one. I do believe that we supply a ton of information for those in Dynasty Leagues, yet since it’s not labeled as such, people don’t notice it. And I know some simply liked to see stuff that they’re looking for labeled as such.
So when I was randomly contacted via Twitter by a subscriber who was starting a Dynasty League from scratch this fall with all FG.com Message Board posters, the timing was right for me to enter the fray. I’ve covered a lot of my picks on Twitter and on my blog, but a complete overview was overdue, so it’s the first thing I did when we wrapped up our 2012 Player Profiles.
This is a 12-team startup league. It’s PPR, and all TDs are worth 6 points. That’s probably all you need to know, but you can see all the rules here.
If you want to see the actual draft report with some commentary from the participants on a lot of the picks, head here.
Here’s my review of the draft.
1.01 1. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
1.02 2. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Foster, Arian HOU RB
1.03 3. Gurrific Newton, Cam CAR QB
1.04 4. Mucas Membrain Johnson, Calvin DET WR
1.05 5. The Prime Time Swag Rice, Ray BAL RB
1.06 6. Indoor FB Rejects McCoy, LeSean PHI RB
1.07 7. Polk High Allstars Stafford, Matthew DET QB
1.08 8. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Green, A.J. CIN WR
1.09 9. Where's My Gym Schwartz? Richardson, Trent CLE RB
1.10 10. Eight in the Box Mathews, Ryan SDC RB
1.11 11. AFL Renegades Johnson, Chris TEN RB
1.12 12. Big Blue Bruisers Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
My Pick: It wasn’t a shock to see Rodgers go #1 overall, considering how safe and productive he is, and how this league is 6 points for all TDs. As for my pick, I struggled between LeSean McCoyand Ray Rice so much that I decided to take Cam Newton. His rushing TDs aren’t as appealing in this scoring system, but it’s not like he doesn’t have massive potential as a passer; he does.
Good Value: McCoy here was a no-brainer. If the Eagles lock you up for five years, you know the player has his best football in front of him. Trent Richardson, as crazy as it sounds, might have actually been a value, since he’s obviously very young and has everything it takes to be great.
Bad Value: I love Matt Stafford, and I get the pick, but I’m not sure I would have pulled the trigger that early. That’s based mainly on the fact that I’m still a little worried about his durability.
2.01 13. Big Blue Bruisers Brady, Tom NEP QB
2.02 14. AFL Renegades Martin, Doug TBB RB
2.03 15. Eight in the Box Jones, Julio ATL WR
2.04 16. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Brees, Drew NOS QB
2.05 17. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR
2.06 18. Polk High Allstars Graham, Jimmy NOS TE
2.07 19. Indoor FB Rejects Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE
2.08 20. The Prime Time Swag Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
2.09 21. Mucas Membrain McFadden, Darren OAK RB
2.10 22. Gurrific Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
2.11 23. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB
2.12 24. GRIDIRON SHOCKER White, Roddy ATL WR
My Pick: Ironically, the fact that this is a dynasty league made me feel better about Adrian Peterson, who is actually a player who could fall off in the not-so-distant future. I’m not expecting 4-5 great years; I’ll take 2-3 and be happy enough with the 22nd overall pick. I felt pretty good about this pick based on the players remaining on the board.
Good Value: There were a lot of good picks in this round – like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski – but nothing that stands out as a value.
Bad Value: I understand the point of being proactive, especially in a dynasty league, but this was a tad early for the rookie Doug Martin. We do like him quite a bit, but he’s not a stud talent. I probably would have rolled with one of the stud TEs, who seem safer.
3.01 25. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Murray, DeMarco DAL RB
3.02 26. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Forte, Matt CHI RB
3.03 27. Gurrific Welker, Wes NEP WR
3.04 28. Indoor FB Rejects Jennings, Greg GBP WR
3.05 29. The Prime Time Swag Charles, Jamaal KCC RB
3.06 30. Mucas Membrain Britt, Kenny TEN WR
3.07 31. Polk High Allstars Marshall, Brandon CHI WR
3.08 32. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Bryant, Dez DAL WR
3.09 33. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Sproles, Darren NOS RB
3.10 34. Eight in the Box Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR
3.11 35. AFL Renegades Nelson, Jordy GBP WR
3.12 36. Big Blue Bruisers Johnson, Andre HOU WR
My Pick: I can’t pay too much attention to the distant future because I’m still looking to win now. This is a PPPR league, and Wes Welker has been undervalued in this format the last few years. I don’t expect him to match 2011’s catch total, but 95-100 seem like a lock, even with Brandon Lloyd in the mix now. There’s a slight concern with his contract, but I can’t imagine the Pats letting the incredibly productive Welker jump ship.
Good Value: DeMarco Murray isn’t a lock, but this was a solid value for him in the 3rd round, since he’s obviously very young and can be productive. Getting Jamaal Charles, who said in June that he was ready to play in a real game, looks like a value as well.
Bad Value: Nothing really stands out as being a poor value pick.
4.01 37. Big Blue Bruisers Cruz, Victor NYG WR
4.02 38. AFL Renegades Harvin, Percy MIN WR
4.03 39. Eight in the Box Wallace, Mike PIT WR
4.04 40. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR
4.05 41. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB
4.06 42. Polk High Allstars Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB
4.07 43. Mucas Membrain Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR
4.08 44. The Prime Time Swag Austin, Miles DAL WR
4.09 45. Indoor FB Rejects Jackson, Steven STL RB
4.10 46. Gurrific Brown, Antonio PIT WR
4.11 47. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Colston, Marques NOS WR
4.12 48. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Jackson, Fred BUF RB
My Pick: Antonio Brown is the perfect pick in this round in a dynasty league. He’s young, has already produced, and could still be an ascending player. His upside is that he could be special, so I loved this pick in a PPR league (a lack of scoring is one issue for him). I took him over Marques Colston, which is a little ballsy, but I was already worried about an aging player with a knee issue in Peterson, so I decided to go young in this dynasty league.
Good Value: Solid value for several young wideouts in this round, including Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin. This may have seemed too early for Jonathan Stewart, but keep in mind he will be an UFA in 2013, and he could easily be off to another team to be their lead back. Denver makes a ton of sense with his old coach there and a need for a young foundation back, and my money’s on him heading there, unless the team releases the older DeAngelo Williams, which would be a shock.
Bad Value: I would have passed on Ahmad Bradshaw, whose foot issue isn’t going away. He claims he’s ready to rock and roll for this year, but his running style brings with it a lot of injury baggage, and I just can’t see his holding up with a lot of touches the next 2-3 years. I understand Steven Jackson is still productive and will be handy in this league for at least 2012, but I probably would have passed on him until at least the next round.
5.01 49. Mucas Membrain Griffin III, Robert WAS QB
5.02 50. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Jackson, Vincent TBB WR
5.03 51. Gurrific Spiller, C.J. BUF RB
5.04 52. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Luck, Andrew IND QB
5.05 53. Polk High Allstars Johnson, Steve BUF WR
5.06 54. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Finley, Jermichael GBP TE
5.07 55. The Prime Time Swag Smith, Steve CAR WR
5.08 56. Indoor FB Rejects Manning, Eli NYG QB
5.09 57. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Wilson, David NYG RB
5.10 58. Eight in the Box Jackson, DeSean PHI WR
5.11 59. AFL Renegades Ryan, Matt ATL QB
5.12 60. Big Blue Bruisers Gore, Frank SFO RB
My Pick: This C.J. Spiller pick was a little proactive, and I passed on some rock-solid producers in terms of the here and now for him, but I do have a hole at RB and needed someone to hang my hat on for the distant future, and Spiller certainly fits the bill. His career didn’t exactly get off to a ballistic start, but he showcased his nice upside in 2011, and his role should be expansive enough in 2012 and very expansive the next 4-5 years. Spiller’s my kind of pick: a special physical talent with big upside.
Good Value: If RGIII is as good as I think he’ll be, this will go down as a value, and I’ll list him here to illustrate how good I think this guy can be.
Bad Value: I’m just not sure about DeSean Jackson at this point and would have waited another round before picking him. This may have been a tad early on Andrew Luck. Ironically, I see him as being comparable to Matt Ryan in terms of fantasy, and Ryan went in this round as well. The difference is that Ryan has actually produced in the NFL and has two stud receivers.
6.01 61. Big Blue Bruisers Leshoure, Mikel DET RB
6.02 62. AFL Renegades Romo, Tony DAL QB
6.03 63. Eight in the Box Rivers, Philip SDC QB
6.04 64. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Decker, Eric DEN WR
6.05 65. Indoor FB Rejects Lloyd, Brandon NEP WR
6.06 66. The Prime Time Swag Vick, Michael PHI QB
6.07 67. Indoor FB Rejects Blackmon, Justin JAC WR
6.08 68. Polk High Allstars Manning, Peyton DEN QB
6.09 69. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Smith, Torrey BAL WR
6.10 70. Gurrific Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE
6.11 71. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Davis, Vernon SFO TE
6.12 72. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Little, Greg CLE WR
My Pick: Still looking for “Gurrific” picks, I grab Aaron Hernandez, who is still only 23 years old and is in a great spot. Granted, there are some factors that could limit his upside down the road, like the other weapons here and the QB’s advancing age, but Hernandez looks like a fine option going forward, and this wasn’t a hefty price to pay for a guy who plays the game like a wide receiver.
Good Value: Some good values at QB in this round, especially Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. I do like Michael Vick as a value as well, but he has more downside for the long-term than Romo and Rivers. But it’s hard to beat these three this late. Again, it’s tough to look beyond the next 2-3 years for most players because things change so quickly in the NFL.
Bad Value: Mikel Leshoure could be really productive if everything goes well, but he’s done little to help himself and has to prove he’ll be on the field and effective, coming off his Achilles injury. I get the pick, but I would have held off a round on him.
7.01 73. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Gates, Antonio SDC TE
7.02 74. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Tate, Ben HOU RB
7.03 75. Gurrific Turner, Michael ATL RB
7.04 76. Mucas Membrain Helu, Roy WAS RB
7.05 77. The Prime Time Swag Witten, Jason DAL TE
7.06 78. Mucas Membrain Davis, Fred WAS TE
7.07 79. Polk High Allstars Wells, Beanie ARI RB
7.08 80. Indoor FB Rejects Bush, Reggie MIA RB
7.09 81. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB
7.10 82. Eight in the Box Ingram, Mark NOS RB
7.11 83. AFL Renegades Floyd, Michael ARI WR
7.12 84. Big Blue Bruisers Williams, Ryan ARI RB
My Pick: Well, I do still have AP as my #1 RB and a backup as my #2, so I had to bite the bullet and grab Michael Turner. Everyone seems to think he’ll fall off a cliff this year, but I don’t see too much changing this year. Yes, he’ll lose more touches to others, namely Jacquizz Rodgers, who should catch more passes this year. But I still think Turner is a key cog in this offense. He’s someone who can come up very small at any time, but his production has been very consistent the last 2-3 years.
Good Value: Nothing really stands out here.
Bad Value: I know we’re getting deeper into the draft, and most players at this point have some issues, but there were some picks here that didn’t excite me. I’m not sure Ben Tate is going to move on in a couple of years, so otherwise he’s behind Arian Foster. I’m still not convinced Roy Helu is the guy long-term in Washington, either. Beanie Wells just can’t stay healthy. Fred Davis has had some trouble staying out of trouble. And we won’t know for a while if Rashard Mendenhall is ever going to be the same. I’m not ripping any of these picks, but they’re shaky. My Turner pick is also shaky, but it’s tied to my team and my AP concerns for 2012.
8.01 85. Big Blue Bruisers Fleener, Coby IND TE
8.02 86. AFL Renegades Greene, Shonn NYJ RB
8.03 87. Eight in the Box Pead, Isaiah STL RB
8.04 88. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Meachem, Robert SDC WR
8.05 89. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Hunter, Kendall SFO RB
8.06 90. The Prime Time Swag Williams, Mike TBB WR
8.07 91. Mucas Membrain Moore, Denarius OAK WR
8.08 92. Polk High Allstars Quick, Brian STL WR
8.09 93. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Best, Jahvid DET RB
8.10 94. Gurrific Bush, Michael CHI RB
8.11 95. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Garcon, Pierre WAS WR
8.12 96. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Locker, Jake TEN QB
My Pick: I’m still trying to catch up a little at RB, and I liked this selection of Michael Bush because he could be the team’s lead back in 2013. Then again, if the Bears finally lock Matt Forte up with a long-term deal, then Bush’s value will be at best as a #3 fantasy RB. But that’s still not that bad, since he’ll get goal line carries and 10-12 touches per game.
Good Value: Denarius Moore was the pick of this round, hands down. He may always be a tease, but the kid exhibits special qualities, so I loved this pick. Brian Quick was another good pick, and the owner clearly understood how he could be the #1 WR here going forward, and that he has the tools to handle that role. And I have to give my guy Jake Locker some love here as well. He’s hardly a finished product and has some issues to clear up, but his physical tools pop off the screen, and he’s a good kid who will work hard at his craft. I love him in a keeper league going back to last year, but I’m even higher on this offense now that they added WR Kendall Wright.
Bad Value: Isaiah Peed is a quality player, but he’s a certain kind of player and may be only a complementary guy, so this was 1-2 rounds too early. The Pead owner does not have Jackson, which would have made the pick look better. I’m also not so sure about Kendall Hunter this high. It does not appear as if he has a clear path to fantasy production this year or for the long-term, although there is certainly a chance the team views him as their lead back long-term, with LaMichael James as a very active complement.
9.01 97. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Hillis, Peyton KCC RB
9.02 98. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Freeman, Josh TBB QB
9.03 99. Gurrific Floyd, Malcom SDC WR
9.04 100. Indoor FB Rejects Pettigrew, Brandon DET TE
9.05 101. The Prime Time Swag Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB
9.06 102. Mucas Membrain Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB
9.07 103. Polk High Allstars Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB
9.08 104. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Cutler, Jay CHI QB
9.09 105. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Tamme, Jacob DEN TE
9.10 106. Eight in the Box Brown, Donald IND RB
9.11 107. AFL Renegades Blount, LeGarrette TBB RB
9.12 108. Big Blue Bruisers Bradford, Sam STL QB
My Pick: This was “blah” pick of Malcom Floyd, but he is the closest thing they have to a #1 WR in San Diego for now, so he’s not a bad depth guy or #3 WR. I felt a little light at wideout here and felt I needed some solid veteran options.
Good Value: I liked the DeAngelo Williams pick in this round. He’s getting up there in age already, but his workload has been minimal, and if the team lets Stewart go, DeAngelo could be the guy for about two more years. If so, he’s going to be a terrific option for a couple of years. Taking Ronnie Hillman here was probably a good move. He may never truly be a lead guy, but his potential is pretty exciting, given his quickness, speed, and versatility. I still insist that Sam Bradford has everything you want to see in a franchise QB and that his upside is still very present for the long-term, so I liked this pick.
Bad Value: The owner who took LeGarrette Blount here did also draft Doug Martin, so I get it, but I bet he could have held off another round or two because his value has fallen off a cliff. Not feeling great about that Brandon Pettigrew pick. He’s fine and usually productive in a PPR league, but he’s kind of just a guy.
10.01 109. Big Blue Bruisers Brown, Vincent SDC WR
10.02 110. AFL Renegades Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB
10.03 111. Eight in the Box Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK WR
10.04 112. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB
10.05 113. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE
10.06 114. Polk High Allstars Young, Titus DET WR
10.07 115. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Baldwin, Jon KCC WR
10.08 116. The Prime Time Swag Schaub, Matt HOU QB
10.09 117. Indoor FB Rejects Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB
10.10 118. Gurrific Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR
10.11 119. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Starks, James GBP RB
10.12 120. Mucas Membrain McGahee, Willis DEN RB
My Pick: Once again, I’m looking for WR help, and I felt I needed veteran help. Santonio Holmes has been a mess and isn’t in a great situation, but he’s at least very talented and is clearly the #1 WR here for now. We’re in the 10th round, so this was a viable value.
Good Value: There were some pretty savvy picks in this round, namely Vincent Brown. At some point, and it might even be this year toward the end of the year, I bet he emerges as the go-to wideout for this team. He’s not a stud, but neither was Derrick Mason when he was hauling in a very high number of passes each year. Jacquizz Rodgers was certainly worth a flyer in this round, and I also liked the picks of Jermaine Gresham and Jon Baldwin, who both have the tools to be high-end players.
Bad Value: It is Round Ten, but I’m not in love with the James Starks pick. He’s not a bad back, but I just don’t see much of a fantasy future here in Green Bay. They obviously throw it a ton, and even if they suddenly change their approach, my concern then would be Starks’ physical running style and ability to stay healthy. The Matt Schaub pick wasn’t all that great, either. He’s a free agent after 2012 and another injury-marred season for him could prompt the team to let him go. This was also too high for Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose long-term future isn’t exactly set in Buffalo, despite his contract extension last year.
11.01 121. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Ridley, Stevan NEP RB
11.02 122. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Green, Alex GBP RB
11.03 123. Gurrific Gerhart, Toby MIN RB
11.04 124. Indoor FB Rejects 49ers, San Francisco SFO Def
11.05 125. The Prime Time Swag Rice, Sidney SEA WR
11.06 126. Mucas Membrain Palmer, Carson OAK QB
11.07 127. Polk High Allstars Cook, Jared TEN TE
11.08 128. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Vereen, Shane NEP RB
11.09 129. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Robinson, Laurent JAC WR
11.10 130. Eight in the Box LaFell, Brandon CAR WR
11.11 131. AFL Renegades Crabtree, Michael SFO WR
11.12 132. Big Blue Bruisers Wright, Kendall TEN WR
My Pick: I wasn’t going to mess around with AP and his backup, so I grabbed Toby Gerhart, who surprised me last year with his production. He doesn’t move that well, so we saw him being more decisive and, thus, more productive last year compared to 2010. He might be a starter for me in September.
Good Value: I’ve never been a big Michael Crabtree guy, but this was a decent value, considering he is likely set as the #1, and he did improve last year. He’s hardly a bum, so this was a nice value. I definitely liked Alex Green in this round based on his upside as a “hurry up” type back in this pass-happy offense. Also, it’s hard to fault the picks of Stevan Ridley, Jared Cook, Shane Vereen, and Kendall Wright, since they are all young and have varying (but relatively high) degrees of upside.
Bad Value: I get the thought process, but taking a defense at 124 overall when we’re talking a dynasty league seems to be a bit much. I know the Niners are great, young, and have all 11 starters returning, but there’s too much turnover in the NFL to invest this much on a defense.
12.01 133. Big Blue Bruisers James, LaMichael SFO RB
12.02 134. AFL Renegades Flacco, Joe BAL QB
12.03 135. Eight in the Box Miller, Lamar MIA RB
12.04 136. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR
12.05 137. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR
12.06 138. Polk High Allstars Wayne, Reggie IND WR
12.07 139. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Collie, Austin IND WR
12.08 140. The Prime Time Swag Hill, Stephen NYJ WR
12.09 141. Indoor FB Rejects Celek, Brent PHI TE
12.10 142. Gurrific Thomas, Daniel MIA RB
12.11 143. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Randle, Rueben NYG WR
12.12 144. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Cobb, Randall GBP WR
My Pick: I’m still looking for some RB support, so I took a flyer on Daniel Thomas. This might go down as a poor selection because he’s hardly a lock, but I’m not yet writing him off. If he can stay healthy, he did show some potential last year as a volume runner. I suspect he’ll get a chance to handle 12-15 carries this year under the new regime, but that’s only if he picks up the offense and blocking scheme and avoids injury.
Good Value: Lots of picks that made sense in this round, like Stephen Hill, Brent Celek, Rueben Randle, and Randle Cobb, who could be the #3 option in the Packer passing game in 1-2 years. I also kind of liked the Lamar Miller pick and wonder if I should have taken him myself rather than Thomas, who doesn’t have Miller’s upside. Finally, I was going to take Austin Collie if he fell to me in this round, so I liked that pick as well.
Bad Value: We’re delving deep now, but I would have waited on Leonard Hankerson, who doesn’t really have a role just yet in Washington.
13.01 145. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Keller, Dustin NYJ TE
13.02 146. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Broyles, Ryan DET WR
13.03 147. Gurrific Baldwin, Doug SEA WR
13.04 148. Indoor FB Rejects Jenkins, A.J. SFO WR
13.05 149. The Prime Time Swag Redman, Isaac PIT RB
13.06 150. Mucas Membrain Moore, Lance NOS WR
13.07 151. Polk High Allstars Carter, Delone IND RB
13.08 152. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Childs, Greg MIN WR
13.09 153. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def
13.10 154. Eight in the Box Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR
13.11 155. AFL Renegades Olsen, Greg CAR TE
13.12 156. Big Blue Bruisers Dalton, Andy CIN QB
My Pick: Now I feel like I’m back on track with the pick of Doug Baldwin, who was really impressive last year while still learning to play NFL football last year. I see him as potential PPR gold going forward, more so than any other Seahawk wideout.
Good Value: I liked the picks of Ryan Broyles, who could be a great PPR guy in 1-2 years. I also kind of liked the Delone Carter pick, since I’m giving him a chance this year to surprise. Greg Childs for the Vikings could be the guy they’ve been looking for, so I liked that pick for the long-term as well.
Bad Value: I see no reason to overpay for the Steeler Defense, especially since they are an aging unit and came up small last year (unless your league was heavy on points allowed).
14.01 157. Big Blue Bruisers Sanu, Mohamed CIN WR
14.02 158. AFL Renegades Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE
14.03 159. Eight in the Box Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB
14.04 160. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Thomas, Pierre NOS RB
14.05 161. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Ponder, Christian MIN QB
14.06 162. Polk High Allstars Amendola, Danny STL WR
14.07 163. Mucas Membrain Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE
14.08 164. The Prime Time Swag Jones, Felix DAL RB
14.09 165. Indoor FB Rejects Ganaway, Terrance NYJ RB
14.10 166. Gurrific Ford, Jacoby OAK WR
14.11 167. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Flynn, Matt SEA QB
14.12 168. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Goodson, Mike OAK RB
My Pick: He’s been something of a non-factor for the Raiders this off-season and is listed as a backup, but Jacoby Ford is very young and can ball for sure, so I liked the pick for my squad for some upside.
Good Value: I liked the Ryan Tannehill and Christian Ponder picks here. Tannehill could bust, but he has the tools needed to be not only good, but very good, even great if things go perfectly. Ponder hit a rough patch last year and he needs help. But he definitely flashed some nice poise and a solid arm and athletic ability, plus the Vikings did get him some young wideouts. I definitely liked the Kyle Rudolf pick and feel he could be the next breakout TE in 1-3 years.
Bad Value: Can’t really argue with anything here.
15.01 169. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Turbin, Robert SEA RB
15.02 170. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Weeden, Brandon CLE QB
15.03 171. Gurrific Jones, Taiwan OAK RB
15.04 172. Indoor FB Rejects Boldin, Anquan BAL WR
15.05 173. The Prime Time Swag Pierce, Bernard BAL RB
15.06 174. Mucas Membrain Royster, Evan WAS RB
15.07 175. Polk High Allstars Smith, Kevin DET RB
15.08 176. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Scott, Bernard CIN RB
15.09 177. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Ravens, Baltimore BAL
15.10 178. Eight in the Box Daniels, Owen HOU TE
15.11 179. AFL Renegades Texans, Houston HOU Def
15.12 180. Big Blue Bruisers Moeaki, Tony KCC TE
My Pick: I’m still a little light at RB, so I grabbed a guy we really liked last year in Taiwan Jones. Jones may never be more than a tease, but he is absolutely electric and has upside, even if he’s only a satellite player. I passed on some solid options for Jones, though, which is a risky move. I’m an upside-oriented player, though, so I pulled the trigger. The good news is Jones really flashed during the final off-season workouts for the Raiders. He may not be the backup this year, but what he may be is a complementary player who gets 8-10 touches per game. He can definitely do some good stuff with even 8-10 touches.
Bad Value: I don’t really get the affinity for taking the defenses this early in a dynasty league, especially since Baltimore’s Defense is an aged one.
16.01 181. Big Blue Bruisers Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
16.02 182. AFL Renegades Bess, Davone MIA WR
16.03 183. Eight in the Box Gettis, David CAR WR
16.04 184. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Akers, David SFO
16.05 185. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Kendricks, Lance STL TE
16.06 186. Polk High Allstars Jones, Marvin CIN WR
16.07 187. Mucas Membrain Packers, Green Bay GBP Def
16.08 188. The Prime Time Swag Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def
16.09 189. Indoor FB Rejects Washington, Nate TEN WR
16.10 190. Gurrific Housler, Robert ARI TE
16.11 191. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Janikowski, Sebastian OAK PK
16.12 192. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Mallett, Ryan NEP QB
My Pick: Time for a true Dynasty prospect who has upside, I grab a young TE in Arizona’s Rob Housler, who is very athletic and bursting with upside. Housler didn’t do much last year, but he was considered raw, and the offense was a bit of a mess. But I saw flashes, for sure, and so did Darren Urban, of AZcardinals.com, who told me after I made this pick that Housler is his pick for offensive breakout player in 2012. I liked the pick when I made it, and now I like it even more, since Urban is dialed into the Cardinals.
Good Value: It’s hard to get better value for Nate Washington, who could be a 1000-yard receiver this year in Tennessee, in the same round that several PKs and DTs are being drafted. That was a great pick and made me feel dumb for taking Malcom Floyd way back in the 9th round. Washington could be better than Floyd the next couple of years.
Bad Value: I still don’t get the DTs being drafted, but at least I liked the defenses that were taken in this round. Compared to some of the other defenses drafted previously, these were pretty decent picks.
17.01 193. Mucas Membrain McCluster, Dexter KCC RB
17.02 194. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Lions, Detroit DET Def
17.03 195. Gurrific Rainey, Chris PIT RB
17.04 196. Indoor FB Rejects Powell, Bilal NYJ RB
17.05 197. The Prime Time Swag Criner, Juron OAK WR
17.06 198. Mucas Membrain Moss, Randy SFO WR
17.07 199. Polk High Allstars Bills, Buffalo BUF Def
17.08 200. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Brinkley, Curtis SDC RB
17.09 201. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Bailey, Dan DAL PK
17.10 202. Eight in the Box Nelson, David BUF WR
17.11 203. AFL Renegades Crosby, Mason GBP PK
17.12 204. Big Blue Bruisers Henery, Alex PHI PK
My Pick: We’re digging deep here, obviously, but I have some confidence in the Steelers and the prospects they draft, especially when the prospects have an appealing skill set, which Chris Rainey has. He’s very small, so he’ll be a role player only, but he could be a dynamic puzzle piece in this offense, which is something we really haven’t seen in the Steeler backfield. Clearly, Pittsburgh was looking to change that with the selection of Rainey, who is a dangerous player in space.
Good Value: At this point, why not on Randy Moss? At least for 2012, it’s not a bad pick at all. Juron Criner is buried on the depth chart right now, but he’s been on a roll since the Senior Bowl and is definitely a dynasty sleeper for the long-term.
Bad Value: There were better Dynasty prospects than David Nelson, who is just a guy for fantasy now that they have a full roster of healthy receivers. Nelson will play, so he has some value, but there’s little upside here. The owner who drafted Curtis Brinkley did not have Ryan Mathews, so that wasn’t a great pick. Then again, Brinkley did show some serious game in limited time last year.
18.01 205. Big Blue Bruisers Dickson, Ed BAL TE
18.02 206. AFL Renegades Ballard, Vick IND RB
18.03 207. Eight in the Box Tate, Golden SEA WR
18.04 208. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Hightower, Tim WAS
18.05 209. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Roberts, Andre ARI WR
18.06 210. Polk High Allstars Gray, Cyrus KCC RB
18.07 211. Mucas Membrain Wylie, Devon KCC WR
18.08 212. The Prime Time Swag Jennings, Rashad JAC RB
18.09 213. Indoor FB Rejects Smith, Alex SFO QB
18.10 214. Gurrific Kolb, Kevin ARI QB
18.11 215. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Polk, Chris PHI RB
18.12 216. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Jean, Lestar HOU WR
My Pick: One of my strategies was to hold off on a backup QB because I had Cam Newton, but also because the 2013 draft class appears deep at QB and could actually include 5-6 guys drafted in the 1st round. I queued up Alex Smith, but he went in front of me, so I’m stuck with Kevin Kolb. I do like John Skeltonas a dynasty prospect, but I couldn’t make a fair case for him over Kolb, who is the starter. Then again, in 2-3 years, I may have wished I did.
Bad Value: None of note.
19.01 217. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Green, Ladarius SDC TE
19.02 218. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Bennett, Martellus NYG TE
19.03 219. Gurrific Givens, Chris STL WR
19.04 220. Indoor FB Rejects Bears, Chicago CHI Def
19.05 221. The Prime Time Swag Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE
19.06 222. Mucas Membrain Broncos, Denver DEN Def
19.07 223. Polk High Allstars Posey, DeVier HOU WR
19.08 224. Forgetting Brandon Marshall McKnight, Joe NYJ RB
19.09 225. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Simpson, Jerome MIN WR
19.10 226. Eight in the Box Allen, Dwayne IND TE
19.11 227. AFL Renegades Robinson, Adrien NYG TE
19.12 228. Big Blue Bruisers Saine, Brandon GBP RB
My Pick: It’s all about upside at this point, so I was surprised to see a guy in Chris Givens, whose upside is tangible and obvious, still on the board. He should be a starter soon in St. Louis, and their big-play guy, so he’s a great dynasty pick. He could be a steal.
Good Value: Lardarius Green is the perfect dynasty pick, and to get him this late was no doubt a great value. DeVier Posey has a chance to be a starter in Houston by 2013, so he was a solid pick here.
Bad Value: I get the pick of Adrien Robinson, but while he has upside here, it’s far from a lock he’s the guy down the road. But that’s really nit-picking. I do not view Brandon Saine as a serious prospect for the long-term.
20.01 229. Big Blue Bruisers Toon, Nick NOS WR
20.02 230. AFL Renegades Tanner, Phillip DAL RB
20.03 231. Eight in the Box Skelton, John ARI QB
20.04 232. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Easley, Marcus BUF WR
20.05 233. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Patriots, New England NEP Def
20.06 234. Polk High Allstars Gabbert, Blaine JAC QB
20.07 235. Mucas Membrain Gostkowski, Stephen NEP PK
20.08 236. The Prime Time Swag Prater, Matt DEN PK
20.09 237. Indoor FB Rejects Tolbert, Mike CAR RB
20.10 238. Gurrific Adams, Joe CAR WR
20.11 239. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Shipley, Jordan CIN WR
20.12 240. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Coale, Danny DAL WR
My Pick: I would have been all over Marcus Easley here, but he went in front of me so I grabbed a nifty slot receiver who could potentially be great with Newton in Joe Adams. He’s a good prospect, so he’s a good pick here.
Bad Value: For about a minute last year, Phillip Tanner was in the mix in Dallas, but he’s not really a guy who’ll get a chance going forward, unless there are multiple injuries in this backfield, so he was a reach.
Round Twenty One
21.01 241. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB
21.02 242. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Barth, Connor TBB PK
21.03 243. Gurrific Thomas, Julius DEN TE
21.04 244. Indoor FB Rejects Rackers, Neil WAS PK
21.05 245. The Prime Time Swag Jets, New York NYJ Def
21.06 246. Mucas Membrain Cassel, Matt KCC QB
21.07 247. Polk High Allstars Streeter, Tommy BAL WR
21.08 248. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Jones, Donald BUF WR
21.09 249. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Clark, Dallas TBB TE
21.10 250. Eight in the Box Dreessen, Joel DEN TE
21.11 251. AFL Renegades Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def
21.12 252. Big Blue Bruisers Bengals, Cincinnati CIN Def
My Pick: It’s still upside time, and Julius Thomas is an extremely athletic prospect who now plays with Peyton Manning, so he was a viable pick, to say the least. In a TE-friendly league, I now have three athletes all under 25 in Hernandez, Housler, and Thomas.
Good Value: Tommy Streeter is raw and may never be a stud, but he had great size and he can run very well, so it made a lot of sense for the Ravens to take a flyer on him. So Streeter was a nice pick. Colin Kaepernick is still very raw and is still very much a work in progress. Even at this fairly early stage, I now question his long-term viability. Still, we’re 240 picks into this thing, and he does still have a chance to be the guy in 1-2 years.
Bad Value: I really don’t get the Connor Barth pick, and I know he’s somewhat underrated. We still have four rounds to go here.
Round Twenty Two
22.01 253. Big Blue Bruisers Caldwell, Andre DEN WR
22.02 254. AFL Renegades Giants, New York NYG Def
22.03 255. Eight in the Box Zuerlein, Greg STL PK
22.04 256. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Manningham, Mario SFO WR
22.05 257. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Fannin, Mario DEN RB
22.06 258. Polk High Allstars Hartley, Garrett NOS PK
22.07 259. Mucas Membrain Egnew, Michael MIA TE
22.08 260. The Prime Time Swag Hilton, TY IND WR
22.09 261. Indoor FB Rejects Morgan, Josh WAS WR
22.10 262. Gurrific Herron, Dan CIN RB
22.11 263. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Tebow, Tim NYJ QB
22.12 264. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Bironas, Rob TEN PK
My Pick: If BenJarvus Green-Ellis fails to distinguish himself as soon as this year, or if he gets hurt, Dan Herron could actually be the guy. Herron isn’t a special talent by any stretch, but he’s a solid grinder and volume back, so I felt he was a worthy pick for young depth here.
Good Value: T.Y. Hilton can fly, so he’s not a bad pick here on a team looking for speed and youth at WR. Michael Egnew could be a dynasty sleeper in the new system, since Anthony Fasano isn’t really cutting it. And you can never say anything bad about Timmy Tebow!
Bad Value: Taking a rookie kicker on a bad team in Greg Zuerlein was a bit of a reach, but I guess it was a swing-for-the-fences move. I would have taken the rock-solid Rob Bironas in what could be a great offense going forward.
Round Twenty Three
23.01 265. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def
23.02 266. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Alexander, Danario STL WR
23.03 267. Gurrific Bennett, Earl CHI WR
23.04 268. Indoor FB Rejects Benson, Cedric FA* RB
23.05 269. The Prime Time Swag Jones, James GBP WR
23.06 270. Mucas Membrain Graham, T.J. BUF WR
23.07 271. Polk High Allstars Osweiler, Brock DEN QB
23.08 272. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Clay, Charles MIA RB
23.09 273. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Casey, James HOU TE
23.10 274. Eight in the Box Williams, Damian TEN WR
23.11 275. AFL Renegades Ochocinco, Chad MIA WR
23.12 276. Big Blue Bruisers Wilson, Russell SEA QB
My Pick: Jeez, I know he’s not a sexy pick, but how can I go wrong with Earl Bennett 267 picks into this draft? He’s still young, and he should finish second on this team in receptions. Paired with his guy Jay Cutler, and with Brandon Marshall taking some needed pressure off this solid possession receiver, he could surprise these next few years, even if Alshon Jeffrey gets it done (Bennett is a natural slot receiver). I almost took Bennett like three rounds earlier.
Good Value: James Jones has got to be worth more than this, even if he stays in Green Bay, so that was a value. T.J. Graham has upside due to his speed and Damian Williams is a solid pick. Although he might be cut by this fantasy team in 1-2 years, Brock Osweiler was worth a shot, since he certainly has a chance to replace Peyton Manning in a few years in Denver.
Bad Value: Charles Clay was probably a wasted pick because there are so many players in the mix here now at RB/TE/FB, etc.
Round Twenty Four
24.01 277. Big Blue Bruisers Ware, Danny NYG RB
24.02 278. AFL Renegades Bullock, Randy HOU PK
24.03 279. Eight in the Box Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def
24.04 280. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Wright, Jarius MIN WR
24.05 281. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Bryant, Matt ATL PK
24.06 282. Polk High Allstars Scott, Da'Rel NYG RB
24.07 283. Mucas Membrain Moss, Santana WAS WR
24.08 284. The Prime Time Swag Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB
24.09 285. Indoor FB Rejects Burleson, Nate DET WR
24.10 286. Gurrific Hanson, Jason DET PK
24.11 287. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Massaquoi, Mohamed CLE WR
24.12 288. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Brown, Bryce PHI RB
My Pick: Well, I haven’t taken a PK or a DT yet, so I had to grab someone. Jason Hanson tailed off later last year, but he was really good for over half the year and is tied to a good offense.
Good Value: Mohamed Massaquoi was actually a really good pick here. He’s getting one more chance to start, and an argument can be made that his lack of production is due mainly to injuries and poor QB play. If he can stay healthy, he might get better QB play this year, so he has a chance. Jarius Wright was a solid pick here as well.
Bad Value: How can anyone be a bad value 277+ picks into a draft?
Round Twenty Five
25.01 289. GRIDIRON SHOCKER Poole, Tauren CAR RB
25.02 290. Somewhere Over Dwayne Bowe Bell, Kahlil CHI RB
25.03 291. Gurrific Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def
25.04 292. Indoor FB Rejects Gould, Robbie CHI PK
25.05 293. The Prime Time Swag Miller, Zach SEA TE
25.06 294. Mucas Membrain Brown, Les MIA TE
25.07 295. Polk High Allstars Holmes, Andre DAL WR
25.08 296. Forgetting Brandon Marshall Arrington, Adrian NOS WR
25.09 297. Where's my Gym Schwartz? Breaston, Steve KCC WR
25.10 298. Eight in the Box Benn, Arrelious TBB WR
25.11 299. AFL Renegades Royal, Eddie SDC WR
25.12 300. Big Blue Bruisers Smith, Steve STL WR
My Pick: I held off until the bitter end before taking my defense, and I actually think Tampa Bay has a chance to be decent in 1-2 years, but I’m obviously in a bad way with my DT. I was offered Denver for Taiwan Jones, but I passed on that because I’m not sure there’s a huge different between the two for the next few years.
Good Value: Jeez, Zach Miller is at least a solid player, so he has a chance. Steve Breastonand Steve Smith are solid veterans, at least. We’ve been pumping Adrian Arrington up a little over the last couple of years (for those who dig really, really deep), but I’m not sure about him these days with Nick Toon in the mix.
Newton, Cam CAR QB
Kolb, Kevin ARI QB
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
Spiller, C.J. BUF RB
Turner, Michael ATL RB
Bush, Michael CHI RB
Gerhart, Toby MIN RB
Herron, Dan CIN RB
Jones, Taiwan OAK RB
Rainey, Chris PIT RB
Thomas, Daniel MIA RB
Welker, Wes NEP WR
Brown, Antonio PIT WR
Floyd, Malcom SDC WR
Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR
Ford, Jacoby OAK WR
Bennett, Earl CHI WR
Givens, Chris STL WR
Adams, Joe CAR WR
Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE
Housler, Robert ARI TE
Thomas, Julius DEN TE
Hanson, Jason DET PK
Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def
Projected Starting Lineup:
Newton, Cam CAR QB
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
Turner, Michael ATL RB
Flex: Spiller, C.J. BUF RB/Bush, Michael CHI RB
Welker, Wes NEP WR
Brown, Antonio PIT WR
Floyd, Malcom SDC WR/Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR/Baldwin, Doug SEA WR
Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE
Hanson, Jason DET PK
Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB Def
Analysis: I can’t call this draft perfect, and I did rush some of my picks, but I do like this squad. Youth is obviously a big key for a dynasty league, but early on you really need to focus on young players who are producing at a high level now or are very close to producing at a high level – as opposed to young players who haven’t yet arrived. In addition, you can’t write off a productive player just because he’s getting up the in years, and I think I found a pretty good balance here.
A good number of these players will be nowhere in 1-2 years, which is a reality for dynasty league owners and a reason why you should target players with relatively unique skill sets. This draft also illustrated how the flow of a draft and your approach can be dependent on the picks made. For example, Michael Turner made a lot of sense for me in the 7th round, even if he falls off a cliff after 2012, since I have Adrian Peterson’s knee issue to worry about this year.
With draft in the books, I’m going to work on for later this month, a Dynasty version of my Draft Plan article, so look for that.
Bad draft picks are down 14,284%. Must be the Guru!
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