Published, 5/6/11
All things considered, this year’s draft went pretty well from a fantasy perspective. There were a few players whose landing spots left us a little flat in terms of their fantasy upside, but there were a lot of good fits in regard to teams with certain needs addressing them with players who fit those specific requirements, so the overall depth at positions like RB and WR has increased. Depth is nice, but the as the NFL continues to transform into a league of specialty and role players – and one driven by positional competition – the lines that make up the fantasy landscape continue to get more and more blurry. This year’s rookie class is littered with prospects who have the potential to make a difference, yet many are far from locks to settle into active roles. So expect fantasy players to be scrambling more than ever to find that winning combination needed to bring home a championship.
You may not nail every rookie sleeper in this year’s draft, but if you’re up to speed on this year’s incoming class and aware of their abilities and prospective opportunities now, you’re going to be able react that much quicker when they’re poised to emerge as viable options on the Waiver Wire once the season kicks off. But the first step is to separate the draftable options from those you should merely have on the radar, and that’s what this rookie report is all about and will be all about right up until Week One’s opening kickoff.
Quarterbacks
1.Cam Newton, Car
School: Auburn | Ht: 6-5 | Wt: 248 | 40: 4.56 | Year: 4Jr
Fantasy Analysis: While Newton is not ready to be thrown into the fire on Week One, it’s almost a certainty that he’ll be in the lineup early in the season, if not for the opener. Last year’s #2 pick, Jimmy Clausen, is far from a viable starter, but Newton faces a steep learning curve in the NFL in transitioning from an Auburn offense that saw him make very few NFL-style throws in his one year there after spending time at Florida and at the junior college level. New Panther HC Ron Rivera said the Panthers will have to downsize their (very thick) playbook for Newton, but they’ll also be able to expand it in some capacities because Newton offers running ability that few players in the league possess. The coaching staff hopes that Newton’s dynamic ability as a runner helps open things up for the team’s RBs as well, like Michael Vick did for LeSean McCoy last season. The Panthers will need a strong running game behind Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson (with DeAngelo Williams possibly heading elsewhere) to mask Newton’s flaws that should be very evident as a rookie. He’s obviously not hopeless as a passer and clearly has talent, with better mechanics than a guy like Vince Young coming into the league and the arm strength to make all the throws. But he doesn’t have the subtle, nuance skills of the position just yet.
Will he dedicate himself and fully immerse himself in the offense? Will he be able to make a quick adjustment to the pro game? How coachable will he be? Those are the key questions, and only time will tell how Newton will adapt and ultimately fare as an NFL quarterback. The potential is certainly there, but for now he’s just one of many flawed QB prospects heading out into the NFL from this draft. He has the potential to be a combination of Ben Roethlisbergerand Josh Freeman – and the downside to be another Vince Young. His steep learning curve cannot be stressed enough, and his lack of time in the off-season programs will be really detrimental to a guy who needs all the tutelage he can get. But if he does play as we fully expect, he’ll probably have the most fantasy value among rookie QBs because of his running ability, and the team should run a lot of play action and boot action to get Newton on the perimeter, where he’s dangerous as a runner. Elite running ability made Vick the league’s best fantasy QB by far last season, and it also allowed Tim Tebow to make a splash when he played late in the season, despite his flaws as a passer. But unlike Tebow last year, Newton may not have a legit #1 WR to throw to, as Steve Smith may be heading out of town. So we could have an extremely unprepared rookie throwing to possibly the worst receiving corps in the NFC. Not exactly the stuff of fantasy legend, so even though his running ability could present some fantasy juice at times, if Newton is out there, expect the Panthers to hand the ball off to their RBs a lot. Still, even if someone like Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder is a lock to open the season as a starter, Newton could easily be more exciting fantasy option based almost completely on his ability to rack up points running the ball. Put it this way: If you had to invest in one rookie QB this year, it might as well be Newton, since he actually has a chance to be a difference-maker. But there is clearly a disconnect in this case between NFL reality and fantasy.
2.Christian Ponder, Min
School: Florida State | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 229 | 40: 4.63 | Year: 5Sr
.jpg "It sure seems like the Vikings would prefer to start Christian Ponder from Day One, but he'll need WR Sidney Rice back to have a chance.")
Fantasy Analysis: The Vikings apparently wanted Jake Locker, but they ended up doing what many consider a reach and drafting Ponder. Ponder doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’s a very solid QB prospect who gives the Vikings the ability to play him right away. We’re still not sure how free agency will play out, but judging from some of the comments coming from his head coach this week, it sure seems like the Vikes are very willing to roll with the youngster right away, and we’re told the chances of someone like Donovan McNabb heading to Minnesota are pretty remote. Fortunately for the rookie, he does at least have Adrian Peterson taking pressure off him in the backfield. However, the Viking offensive line continues to be a major concern, and division foes Green Bay (Clay Matthews), Detroit (Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley), and Chicago (Julius Peppers) aren’t exactly light on talented pass rushers. Ponder has battled through injury problems in college, as he’s had surgery to fix a separated throwing shoulder and had problems with his throwing elbow. The Vikings have given Ponder a clean bill of health, but durability is clearly a concern moving forward. If he stays healthy, Ponder, should be able to make a fairly smooth transition. He has experience in a pro-style offense at Florida State, and the Vikings have praised his intelligence and his character, all of which make him arguably the most NFL-ready QB in the draft. He may not have the upside of Cam Newton or Blaine Gabbert, but he’s fairly mobile – an important asset behind that O-line – and can throw on the move, with an average arm but enough strength to get the ball downfield. He’s best in a West Coast or timing-based system, so he is a good fit for new Viking OC Bill Musgrave, who has a West Coast background and has spent the last several years as QB coach in Atlanta, where he helped mold Matt Ryan into an effective QB. The offense may not be a West Coast offense, but it will certainly have West Coast components based around Peterson and a power running game, two-TE sets featuring Visanthe Shiancoe and rookie Kyle Rudolph, and a lot of play-action. For a rookie QB like Ponder, that appears to be a perfect fit. Of course, all that won’t matter much if the Viking line can’t keep him upright and healthy. At least he handled pressure well in college at times, and he appears to be a very comfortable player. A huge key for Ponder will be whether or not veteran WR Sidney Rice returns. If he does, Ponder will have a large target to throw to, which will be a big help, and overall the Vikings are in decent shape at the skill positions. But even if he has all the pieces in place, a season similar to Sam Bradford’s last year in St. Louis would be a surprise. Ponder’s simply not as good as Bradford.
3.Andy Dalton, Cin
School: TCU | Ht: 6-2 | Wt: 215 | 40: 5.12 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: There were no smoke screens when it came to Cincinnati and Dalton. New OC Jay Gruden was clearly enamored with the TCU quarterback, and when Dalton was still on the board with the 36th pick, the Bengals jumped at the chance to grab their man after already adding elite WR A.J. Green with the 4th overall pick. Dalton’s stock appeared to be on the rise heading into the draft, but he ended up going where he was expected to, despite a few QB reaches taking place in the 1st round. Perhaps more than any other rookie QB aside from Christian Ponder, Dalton has the experience to handle stepping in and playing right away. The one glaring problem with him is that he has limited arm strength, and it’s uncertain if he can get enough velocity on his throws to succeed long-term, as he’s, in the words of our Greg Cosell, a limited-arm talent. Still, arm strength can develop over time once a QB gets to the NFL, and some think he has the potential to be a Drew Brees-like player. However, it’s more likely he’ll be another Colt McCoy. Obviously, we’re not going to get ahead of ourselves here. For now, Dalton appears to be a solid, smart QB with limited upside but all the intangibles, and he is at least a good fit for Gruden’s West Coast offense once he makes the adjustment from a spread at TCU. Gruden doesn’t believe he has to alter the offense significantly for Dalton to play right away, and that’s unusual for a rookie QB. While Carolina will be busy scrapping plays left and right with Newton coming in, Dalton should make a smoother transition. It’s not a lock that Dalton starts, of course, but it seems highly unlikely (at least in the spring) that Carson Palmer will be back. It does appear that RB Cedric Benson will return to Cincinnati, though, and while WRs Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens will end up elsewhere, Dalton has a solid corps of young receivers in Green, Jordan Shipley, Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, and TE Jermaine Gresham. Benson will no doubt handle a heavy workload, and that’s a good thing for Dalton, yet not necessarily for his potential as a fantasy option. As talented as his receiving corps is, it’s still a very young group, so you can’t expect much. But at least compared to his fellow Class of 2011 alums, Dalton has some fantasy value simply because he appears to have a very good chance of playing right away in a system that fits his style of play. But we’ll have to see about Palmer, who would be giving up $11.5 million if he sits this season out.
4.Jake Locker, Ten
School: Washington | Ht: 6-2.5 | Wt: 231 | 40: 4.50 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: Locker was the most polarizing prospect in the draft aside from Ryan Mallett, and while his glaring accuracy issues should have made him a 2nd-round pick, the Titans opted to shock everyone and take him over Blaine Gabbert as the #2 QB off the board with the 8th pick. The Titans are clearly looking to move on from the Vince Young era, and they believe Locker is the opposite type of player in terms of intangibles, as HC Mike Munchak and VP Ruston Weber both pointed to his leadership, intelligence, and toughness as reasons for drafting him. Obviously, those are good qualities to have, and the Titans understandably want a change after putting up with several years of Young. Locker does have some similarities to Young in terms of athleticism, and the offense may have to mask his flaws by simplifying the offense and allowing him to make a lot of throws on the move. To his credit, Locker has a strong arm, moves well, and can make throws on the run. The big problem is that he has a lot of trouble delivering accurate throws from the pocket, and unfortunately for him, that’s what the NFL game is all about. The NFL at its core is a pocket passing game. The upside is certainly there for Locker, but he started a lot of games at Washington and has yet to develop. Sure, you can blame a subpar supporting cast, but it seems like people have just been looking for excuses. The Titan coaching staff appears to recognize the learning curve, and it is very unlikely Locker will play early, if at all, this season. Instead, the Titans will look to re-sign Kerry Collins or bring in another veteran to hold the job for a year or two. The Titans believe new OC Chris Palmer is the right man for the job of fixing Locker’s accuracy issues – issues that are clearly prevalent, despite what Locker has said, whether you’re watching him on film or looking at his career-best 58.2% completion rate. Perhaps the best hope is that Locker can develop into a Jake Plummer-like QB, as our Greg Cosell has made the comparison in that Plummer had skills outside the pocket but never became a top pocket passer and was inconsistent. For now, don’t expect to see Locker on the field this fall, but you can’t rule it out completely. We’ve reached a point in the NFL where top-10 QBs are expected to play right away, so if the team struggles, seeing Locker wouldn’t be a complete shock. At the very least, the Titans set up their offense through the running game, and Chris Johnson is a valuable asset for a young QB, plus they do have some nice weapons at receiver, namely Kenny Britt. If he’s on the field, he’ll likely work off a lot of 1-RB, 2-TE sets, and they will run the ball to set up play/boot action, which will take advantage of his best attribute, which is throwing ball on the move. But once again, here’s a guy whose rookie development could be stifled due to the lockout.
5.Blaine Gabbert, Jac
School: Missouri | Ht: 6-4.5 | Wt: 235 | 40: 4.61 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: Jacksonville is a bit of a surprise landing spot for Gabbert, as although a QB wasn’t ruled out for the Jaguars, Gabbert was expected to be gone by pick #8 at the latest. Instead, the Titans reached for Jake Locker, and the Jaguars swapped with Washington – another assumed Gabbert destination – and took the Missouri QB. Gabbert is a better prospect than either Dalton or Ponder, but they both have a better chance to play early, simply because the Bengals and Vikings don’t have any capable QBs and the Jaguars have David Garrard. That’s not to say Garrard is the future. He’s perhaps the most inconsistent QB in football, and drafting Gabbert means Jaguar GM Gene Smith has an eye toward the future – although that future probably won’t include HC Jack Del Rio, given this messy situation. The Jaguars are in an odd spot in which Del Rio has to win now to keep his job, but if they struggle early in the season behind Garrard, Del Rio may be forced to throw Gabbert out there in what could be a lost season. Gabbert has the tools and intangibles to succeed in the NFL, as he possesses a quick release, great accuracy, the necessary arm strength, and decent mobility. He’s very good in making outside, void throws, which is important in the NFL. The biggest problem is making a transition from a spread offense in which he often made one read out of the shotgun. In fact, while there’s not a large sample of Gabbert’s really dropping back and getting back to where there’s pressure, on those plays that exist on film, Gabbert broke down immediately and was not tough at all, according to our Greg Cosell. Cosell thought he dropped his eyes and read the rush, and you can’t play QB in the NFL like that. Of course, he’s in the same boat as all of the rookies in this draft class in that he’s set to miss a lot of valuable time working with the coaching staff in the off-season workouts. Luckily for him, Gabbert won’t have to play right away. It’s Garrard’s job to lose for now. However, we see him as someone who will be competing and pushing Garrard all season, so at some point, he will likely get onto the field, since he’s clearly the future and Garrard is clearly not. If Gabbert sees live action, he had better hope the Jaguars acquire a veteran WR or two, as the WR corps is extremely thin, and Mike Sims-Walker is headed out of town. His OL is solid and the running game can be dominant, which helps. But there’s not much to work with outside of TE Marcedes Lewis and wideout Mike Thomas who, while rock solid, should be a #2 WR in the NFL at best.
6.Colin Kaepernick, SF
School: Nevada | Ht: 6-4.5 | Wt: 233 | 40: 4.53 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: The 49ers were apparently set on adding Kaepernick as their QB of the future (as were the Raiders), and Kaepernick should benefit from the tutelage of former NFL QB Jim Harbaugh as his new head coach. How early he plays is the key question, and while the 49ers don’t currently have an answer at QB that isn’t “Alex Smith,” he’s probably a year away from getting on the field. Kaepernick was an incredibly productive four-year starter in Nevada’s Pistol offense, becoming the first QB in college football history to rack up 10,000 passing yards and 4,000 rushing yards in his career. He has an effortless motion with good arm strength, accuracy, and touch, and obviously, he can run very well. Still, he has some mechanical issues – including a wind-up release – and he’s going to have to adjust from an unorthodox college offense to a complex West Coast offense that may not be an ideal fit. At this point, Kaepernick doesn’t look like a QB who can immediately be a three- and five-step drop passer, and he does not have a quick, compact delivery that we often see from West Coast QBs, so we think the offense may have to morph into more of a deep passing game, as is the case in Philadelphia’s West Coast offense. Aside from the shaky QB situation, the 49ers are in a decent position to succeed in a weak division, and the offense has solid weapons in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and potentially rookie RB Kendall Hunter. No, we don’t know how the new coaching staff will work out, but on the surface, this appears to be a desirable landing spot for Kaepernick to develop into an NFL starter. He’s not the most polished guy out there, but he has an enormous amount of upside and also has the character and intelligence to be receptive to coaching and improve as a professional quarterback. Smith is at least capable of making throws from time to time, and the guidance of Harbaugh should help more than the relationship with Mike Singletary, but if Smith isn’t the answer for the 49ers, it’s possible we’ll see Kaepernick before the end of the season. The 49ers have the running game and Kaepernick has the mobility to help hide him a bit if he’s prematurely forced into action. But for his sake, we’re hoping he’s out there for only a handful of starts very late in the year because he definitely needs a year of seasoning in the NFL before he’s thrust into the starting role. Otherwise, Kaepernick could potentially see the field as a Wildcat option with Smith remaining the starter.
7.Ricky Stanzi, KC
School: Iowa | Ht: 6-4.5 | Wt: 223 | 40: 4.87 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: If you were to place the 2011 QB prospects into tiers, Stanzi was sort of in no-man’s land, not quite up to the caliber of the 2nd-round guys like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick, but clearly ahead of the rest of the late-round pack. Stanzi is a solid prospect, and he doesn’t have many weaknesses aside from questionable arm strength, which could still improve over time. He doesn’t have elite physical tools, but he would be serviceable if he needed to step in and play. Now, that’s unlikely to happen, as Matt Cassel is clearly entrenched as the Chiefs’ starting QB for now. Still, Cassel has missed a game each of the last two years, and if he was to be sidelined again, Stanzi could be the #2 and could adequately fill in for a week. That’s not to say he’s going to be a fantasy stud. In fact, he probably never will be. But with a strong running game in KC and some talented red-zone targets, it’s not out of the question for him to be pressed into action for a week or two and throw some TD passes. Stanzi ran an NFL offense in college, and while he was inconsistent at times, he generally reads coverages well and could develop into a starter down the road if his arm strength improves a bit. In terms of skill set, Stanzi is very similar to Cassel, so if the Chiefs are happy with Cassel, Stanzi is a pretty good fit as a backup.
8.Ryan Mallett, NE
School: Arkansas | Ht: 6-6.5 | Wt: 253 | 40: 5.37 | Year: 4Jr
Fantasy Analysis: One of the biggest stories of draft weekend proved to be Mallett, as the polarizing QB prospect plummeted out of the 2nd round only to end up with the Patriots in the 3rd round – using the pick they acquired in the Randy Moss trade. Mallett is the best pure passer in the draft, as he’s a big pocket QB with a cannon for an arm and can make all the throws. He’s a five-step, seven-step deep drop guy, so what you need is an offense that’s built to his specifications – play-action, drop deep, and get a chance to survey field, etc. His biggest problem on the field is his complete lack of mobility, as he’s a bit of a statue in the pocket and can’t react quickly to pressure. Fortunately, he won’t have to play early, because the Patriots happen to have one of the best QBs in league history behind center in Tom Brady. Really, New England is the perfect landing spot for Mallett. The reason he dropped so far in the draft was questions about his maturity, and while we don’t know how he’ll transition to the NFL, there are serious doubts about his character and ability to mentally succeed in a fully committed NFL career. But by going to the Patriots, he can learn from two of the best in the game: Brady and HC Bill Belichick. Brady is as committed as it gets for a QB, and while he’s not going anywhere any time soon, he’s a perfect mentor for Mallett. It’s impossible to know how Mallett will adapt and if he’ll ever truly get it, but if he does, he could be a valuable trade chip or a potential heir to the Patriots’ QB throne. Oddly enough, Brady unexpectedly replaced Drew Bledsoe, and if Mallett realizes his potential, he has a lot of similarities to Bledsoe as a prototypical, drop-back pocket passer. Just don’t expect to see him this season unless Brady gets hurt and Belichick trusts him enough to get on the field. That’s highly unlikely because the Pats are very comfortable with backup Brian Hoyer, who’s now been in the system for two whole seasons.
9.Nathan Enderle, Chi
School: Idaho | Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 240 | 40: 4.82 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: With a fairly deep QB class this year, we’re only now getting to the guys who may never be on the fantasy radar. There is very little chance that Enderle will ever make a fantasy impact, although if the Bear offensive line doesn’t improve this year, you can’t rule it out entirely. After all, Caleb Hanie was forced into action for the Bears last season. So was Max Hall for the Cardinals. So was Brian St. Pierre (signed off the couch) for the Panthers. You get the picture. Enderle is a big pocket passer with some similarities as a player to Mallett, but he doesn’t have physical tools that are on the same level. Against his best competition playing for Idaho, he threw 5 INTs against Nebraska last season. For a bigger QB, he doesn’t have elite arm strength, and it’s very unlikely he can make an impact early in his NFL career, if it at all. Still, the names Hanie, Hall, and St. Pierre show that any QB must be ready at any time because you never know when something unexpected will happen. For what it’s worth, OC Mike Martz likes him, which is why they grabbed him in the 5th round.
10.Tyrod Taylor, Bal
School: Virginia Tech | Ht: 6-0.5 | Wt: 217 | 40: 4.51 | Year: 4Sr
Fantasy Analysis: Taylor is a terrific athlete who did a solid job leading Virginia Tech to success in the ACC, but his skill set doesn’t really translate to NFL success at the position. He has decent arm strength, but he’s short and lacks consistent accuracy. Really, he could stay in the NFL for years as a versatile backup who can occasionally be used in Wildcat situations and maybe even catch some passes, like the role Brad Smith has carved out for himself with the Jets.
Also worth listing:
Greg McElroy (NYJ) – McElroy is an extremely smart QB who managed games well in college and led Alabama to a national title. He’s accurate and has all the intangibles, but he doesn’t have the arm strength to make a significant impact in the pros. With that said, he is perfectly suited to be a long-term backup and could have a long career if he wants it.
T.J. Yates (Hou) – Like many other late-round QB prospects, Yates is more of a game manager with little upside for the NFL, although he does have some similarities to Andy Dalton. He’s mentally tough and smart but likely doesn’t have the physical tools to develop into a starter.
Post-Draft Keeper Rankings
1. Cam Newton (CAR, 22) – Not even close to a sure thing, but he can run for big numbers and he does have upside. But he’ll need some receivers here.
2. Colin Kaepernick (SF, 23) – Have to be patient, but this is a very good situation for him, with solid skill players and OL, as long as they can tweak their offense to suit his strengths and do more downfield passing.
3. Christian Ponder (MIN, 23) – Potentially solid player who could start from Day One, and it looks like they want him to start right away. Having Sidney Rice long-term would be huge for him.
4. Blaine Gabbert (JAC, 21) – Not in love with supporting cast here, but overhaul may be coming, and he looks like solid prospect and should start some games in 2011.
5. Andy Dalton (CIN, 23) – Nice fit for scheme and some weapons, plus he's savvy, but he has arm strength limitations, and we have to see if Carson Palmer is serious about not returning.
6. Jake Locker (TEN, 23) – Really has a long way to go, but while he's similar to Vince Young, he should definitely be better because he’s not a prima donna like Young. Talent-wise, he’s better than Dalton, but he has a lot more downside and his running will open him up to injuries.
7. Ryan Mallett (NE, 23) – Has high-end skills as passer and will learn from the best, but he has to be traded to have long-term value unless Tom Brady goes down.
8. Ricky Stanzi (KC, 24) – Played in pro-style offense and potential NFL starter, and Matt Cassel is no stud, so he has a chance and is actually very similar to Cassel.
9. Nathan Enderle (CHI, 23) – Some ability and they view him as upgrade over Hanie, but Cutler's the guy long-term.
10. T.J. Yates (HOU, 24) – Looks like a viable prospect but a long shot.
11. Tyrod Taylor (BAL, 22) – At least he can produce in a Brad Smith role potentially.
12. Greg McElroy (NYJ, 23) – A backup only for the long-term.
Running Backs
1.Mark Ingram, NO
School: Alabama | Ht: 5-9 | Wt: 215 | 40: 4.57 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: The top rated RB in the draft slipped past the only truly obvious 1st-round destination in Miami and ended up joining a crowded Saint backfield that currently includes Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, and Chris Ivory. Whether Bush stays or not remains up in the air, as Sean Payton has indicated he’ll be back, but Bush’s “It’s been fun New Orleans” tweet wasn’t exactly promising. If he doesn’t take a pay cut, they will release him. While the Saints do have a crowded backfield, what they lacked last year was a sustaining running game. Sure, Bush and Thomas were injured most of the year, but Bush certainly isn’t the guy for that and Thomas hasn’t been and won’t be, either. They both provide value to the offense, but Ingram is more likely to step in and get 10-15 carries per game and to help move the chains. Ivory did a little of that; however, Ingram clearly comes out of college with more talent, and Ivory faces injury concerns of his own, plus he has ball security issues. Ingram isn’t a flashy player, but the 2009 Heisman winner is a good inside runner with great vision, a compact frame, and the ability to always get positive yards. Ingram is a foundation back, and there are no questions about his toughness and physicality. That’s big for a Saint offense that actually likes to be fairly balanced, despite its pass-happy QB and deep rotation of receivers. Fantasy owners may be hesitant to play Ingram because of that uncertain committee approach – although things would get a bit clearer if the Saints cut ties with Bush – and that’s understandable. We share the sentiment that it’s difficult to predict what’s going to happen with the Saint offense because of how many players are involved. However, Ingram is talented enough to step in immediately and offer a sustaining element to the running game – an element that they lacked in 2010 but had when they won the Super Bowl in 2009. Keep in mind this is not a shutdown defense, so controlling the ball with the running game will help them greatly. It’s also important to point out that they moved back up into the 1st round to get him, and they gave up a lot. He’s going to have a significant role, and on this team, that should result in solid fantasy digits.
2.Daniel Thomas, Mia
School: Kansas State | Ht: 6-0.5 | Wt: 230 | 40: 4.55 | Year: 4Sr
Fantasy Analysis: For months, many thought the Dolphins were the obvious destination for Mark Ingram, given that the team may have an empty backfield if neither Ronnie Brown nor Ricky Williams returns. Of course, the Dolphins will likely add another veteran if that’s the case, but to see them address the RB position in the draft wasn’t a surprise at all. However, instead of drafting Ingram, they wisely bolstered the interior of the offensive line with G/C Mike Pouncey and then traded into the end of the 2nd round to draft Thomas. For now, it’s hard to offer an accurate projection of Thomas because of the uncertainty surrounding free agency. No matter what happens in free agency, though, Thomas should have a substantial role in the Dolphin offense. Under new OC Brian Daboll, the Dolphins will likely continue to operate a power running game, while also involving RBs as receivers out of the backfield. The selection of Thomas appears to confirm that. Thomas is a big back capable of handling a significant load of carries and sustaining offense, and he’s also proven himself to be a solid receiver. Given the change in offensive coordinators in Miami, it’s possible the Wildcat will disappear from the offense, but Thomas has plenty of experience running it and could fill the same role that Brown did. His biggest problem is that he runs upright and is not quite physical enough for his size, as he actually runs more like a smaller back, but he at least has good lateral agility. Again, free agency will ultimately determine how much Thomas is involved this year, but as of now, he has as good a chance as any rookie back to immediately get a significant share of touches because of the situation and the Dolphins’ style of offense. Miami needs a sustainer, and that’s exactly what Thomas may be.
3.Mikel Leshoure, Det
School: Illinois | Ht: 5-11.5 | Wt: 227 | 40: 4.56 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: Leshoure steps into an excellent situation in the Lion offense – really, the Lion offense actually offers an excellent situation – as he and second-year back Jahvid Best should complement each other well and form a dangerous RB duo if they play up to their potential. While the Lions did use an early pick on Best last year, he struggled to stay healthy and isn’t suited to handling the ball 20 times per game. In the age of RBBCs, that’s perfectly fine. It’s just that the Lions needed to find a RB to split time with him. They could have targeted someone like Ronnie Brown in free agency, but instead of dealing with that uncertainty in this lockout-dominated off-season, they opted to take a big, NFL-ready back in Leshoure. Leshoure does have some issues, as he runs with an upright style that leaves him vulnerable to taking hits, and he also was plagued by maturity issues early in his college career. Still, he developed into a productive runner for Illinois and has some similarities to fellow Illinois product Rashard Mendenhall as a bigger inside back who can run over people and has some burst and elusiveness in the open field. That skill set makes Leshoure a great fit for the Lions, and while Best will continue to get plenty of touches, the pick gives the Lions some flexibility in that they can use Best in a variety of ways, create mismatches, and try to get him the ball in the open field. While Best does that, Leshoure can be the main ball carrier, used as a sustaining element of the offense and an effective inside runner in the red zone. Fumbling has not been a big issue for him, which is good to know. From Week Twelve on last year, veteran Maurice Morris scored 5 TDs, which is a clear sign that Leshoure’s upside in terms of TDs is in the double-digits, and this offense will certainly move the ball and give someone in this backfield opportunities to cross the stripe.
4.Ryan Williams, Ari
School: Virginia Tech | Ht: 5-9.5 | Wt: 212 | 40: 4.59 | Year: 3So
Fantasy Analysis: Just two years ago, the Cardinals spent a 1st-round pick on Beanie Wells. It was a fine move, as Wells had the look of an effective NFL RB, and Tim Hightower is merely just a guy in terms of talent. And Wells looked potentially special at times during his 2009 debut. Two years later, Hightower is still just a guy, and Wells has failed to live up to expectations. Wells simply hasn’t gotten the job done, as he’s shown signs of ability on the field but has been injured and rarely produces consistently. It doesn’t appear that he has the mentality necessary to be a lead back. Williams is an interesting prospect in that he played just two years in college, and his redshirt freshman season was far superior to an injury-riddled sophomore year. A hamstring injury often kept him out of action in 2010, and there’s a chance he won’t be ready to get a lot of touches as a rookie. The Cardinals have raved about his talent, though, and Williams is capable of developing into a featured back in the NFL – which is what the team thought it had in Beanie. Ideally, the pick of Williams will light a fire under Wells in a new RB competition, but we’ve learned not to get our hopes up with him. After a shaky final college season and with questions about his ability in pass protection, Williams probably needs time to develop, and one shouldn’t just expect big fantasy production. Still, the Cardinals told us everything we need to know about their opinion of Wells by this Williams pick. And if Wells continues to be ineffective, Williams certainly has a chance to develop into a quality back for a Cardinal team that wants to run the football, and if necessary, it could come sooner rather than later with Williams as the lead back and Hightower playing a role on passing downs (they feel Williams can be a big asset as a receiver eventually). When healthy, Williams is a legit lead runner who runs hard, is tough, and runs with an edge and with velocity, so he will be appealing to a coaching staff that has put up with Wells the last two years. They obviously love him, as they admitted they had him 15th overall on their draft board.
5.Roy Helu, Was
School: Nebraska | Ht: 5-11.5 | Wt: 219 | 40: 4.41 | Year: 4Sr
Fantasy Analysis: Helu flew a bit under the radar during the draft process – although our guy Tony Pauline loved him – despite being a productive back for a successful Nebraska team, but he steps into a very good situation in terms of coaching and scheme with the Redskins. HC Mike Shanahan is known for taking just about any RB and making him a 1,000-yard rusher, as he did with the likes of Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson in Denver. With Clinton Portis done in Washington, Helu joins Ryan Torain, Keiland Williams, and rookie 6th-round pick Evan Royster in what should be an interesting backfield competition. Helu is a solid one-cut, downhill runner, so he shouldn’t a difficult transition from being an I-back at Nebraska to Shanahan’s zone blocking offense in the NFL, and in fact his college system is considered very similar to Shanahan’s. He’s a stick-his-foot-in-the-ground-and-go guy, which is what Shanahan wants. While Helu wasn’t known for being a burner in college, he actually ran a 4.42 40-yard dash, and Shanahan pointed to that as an advantage he has over Torain and Williams. Shanahan has drawn comparisons between Helu and Portis, and Helu provides the burst at the position that Torain doesn’t. Helu isn’t very elusive and hasn’t done a whole lot as a receiver, but his vision, instincts, and burst into the open field all make him an attractive option and perhaps one of the more underrated backs in the draft. Helu has the ability to develop into a featured back in the league, and he really fits with what the Redskins want to do, although Torain is also a Shanahan guy who was drafted by the coach in Denver. Now, Shanahan essentially has a group of his guys at RB, which should make for an interesting competition come training camp. And yes, dealing with a Shanahan backfield can be maddening – and it’s potentially nightmarish in 2011 – but Helu is going to get a legit chance to be a featured back in this offense. Even if Torain is the guy to start the season, the former Bronco is an injury waiting to happen, so we’re thinking Helu’s going to get his shot.
6.Kendall Hunter, SF
School: Oklahoma State | Ht: 5-7.5 | Wt: 199 | 40: 4.46 | Year: 4Sr
Fantasy Analysis: The 49ers spent the entire first half of the 2010 season saying they would use Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon to take some pressure off Frank Gore. Well, Westbrook and Dixon barely played until Gore got hurt and they were forced into action out of necessity. With Westbrook hitting free agency and a new regime in charge in San Francisco, Hunter was drafted as a guy who can actually come in and play a complementary role to take some heat off Gore. Gore is one of the league’s best RBs when healthy, but he’s getting older and could use someone to spell him as a change-of-pace back. Hunter is perfect to fill that need. He’s very undersized and lacks strength and bulk, but he has some similarities to Westbrook as a tough, physical, inside runner with shiftiness and burst, so he’s not necessarily an outside scat back. Typically, a player of his stature will more than likely end up in a change-up role like Justin Forsett, but it’s not impossible for him to develop into an Ahmad Bradshaw-like back capable of being the featured guy down the road or if Gore gets hurt again. In fact, Hunter could have been a 1st-round pick had he weighed another 15 pounds or so. Hunter has dealt with injury problems in the past, so durability is a bit of concern, but he is experienced and produced in a big way in college, and he has the ability to help the passing game. Because of that, he should have a good chance to work his way onto the field early, possibly on 3rd downs, and finally take some pressure off Gore at RB to keep him fresh. Dixon is still in the mix, but Hunter has more talent and because he fits what they do (power) is more than capable of developing into a starter as well.
7.DeMarco Murray, Dal
School: Oklahoma | Ht: 5-11.5 | Wt: 213 | 40: 4.40 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: The selection of Murray likely spells the end of Marion Barber’s tenure in Dallas. While the Cowboys had a crowded backfield with the Felix Jones, the underrated Tashard Choice, and Barber, they struggled to establish a consistent run game last season. Jones has been solid, but he hasn’t emerged as the elite playmaker the team hoped; Barber is a mediocre volume back who couldn’t get going last year; and Choice is talented, but he just can’t seem to get on the field. With Barber out, Murray should step into immediate playing time, although they are definitely different runners. Murray is an experienced player who must answer durability questions and develop into a better runner. He had a very solid college career and was especially effective as a receiver out of the backfield (including 71 catches as a senior), but he’s not flashy and lacks elusiveness and creativity. The durability question is enhanced by Murray’s upright running style, as it leaves him vulnerable to taking hits. He did stay healthy as a senior, though, and while Jones will start, look for Murray to challenge for playing time early and possibly earn the 3rd-down role because of his receiving ability. Jones is going to be the main back, but the Cowboys like to split carries, and they just don’t seem to think a lot of Choice, therefore giving Murray a good chance to play. But while some Dallas beat writers think he can challenge for the lead role, we view him as a situational player in the NFL and don’t think he’s a good enough runner to be the guy. He’s very straight line-ish with very little lateral agility/explosiveness. And let’s be honest; they don’t use one guy in this backfield. They want to lean toward Jones to get more than half of the touches, leaving Murray well in the mix to get a good percentage of the other half. And as good as we think Choice is, they clearly don’t think too much of him.
8.Jacquizz Rodgers, Atl
School: Oregon State | Ht: 5-6 | Wt: 196 | 40: 4.65 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: The Falcons traded up in the 5th round to grab the small but productive Rodgers, and with Jerious Norwood leaving Atlanta, Rodgers could fill the role the Falcons would have liked Norwood to fill. As much as they’ve tried, Michael Turner just is not a very effective receiver out of the backfield, and while Rodgers will be limited by his size in the NFL, he has proven to be an elite receiver – highlighted by the 78 passes he caught for Oregon State in 2009. He’s not a burner and lacks strength to run on the inside, but there is room for him in the NFL as a complementary back. And for his size, he’s actually extremely tough and ran over defensive backs in college. He holds onto the ball, has stayed healthy, and put up nearly 9,000 total yards in his three-year college career, and while Jason Snelling is also on the roster, Rodgers brings a different skill set to the table and should compete for a role as a change-of-pace back behind bangers Turner and Snelling. Does that mean Rodgers will put up impressive fantasy numbers? Of course not. But he should get on the field and get touches every game, and he could be used as a hurry-up back when the Falcons fall behind, although that’s not a common occurrence. He’s a great example of a player with a certain skill set who projects to a certain role, and someone who landed in the ideal place to utilize that skill set and fill that role.
9.Alex Green, GB
School: Hawaii | Ht: 6-0.5 | Wt: 225 | 40: 4.46 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: One doesn’t usually think of RBs in the Hawaii offense, but although the Warriors had two 1,000-yard receivers in the nation’s #1 passing offense last year, Green actually rushed for 1,199 yards and 18 TDs, averaging a ridiculous 8.2 yards per carry. Hawaii’s wide-open, successful passing attack surely made things a bit easier for Green to run against lousy Western Athletic Conference defenses, but 8.2 yards per carry is still 8.2 yards per carry, huge running gaps aside. He’s a bigger back who ran an impressive 40-yard dash time of 4.46 seconds, and he fits in the NFL as a one-cut, downhill runner with some power and short-area burst. The Packers plan to operate a RBBC just like most other teams in the league, and the hard-running and Green will be added to a stable that also includes Ryan Grant and James Starks. Starks emerged as a solid runner, but he’s not flashy and runs with an upright style that will leave him vulnerable to taking hits. There will be room for another back to get carries, and with Grant entering the final year of his contract, Green will have a chance to contribute. No matter what happens with the other guys, the Packers like Green as a versatile back who can pick up yards up the middle but also make plays in space as a receiver, which is a big key in GB. That versatility will come in handy, and while no Packer RB is likely to get a significant number of touches in this pass-first offense unless there are injuries, Green should have a role immediately, provided his slight ball security issues are cleared up. There’s also a slight chance the Packers dump Grant this year, which would give us an immediate glimpse of their vision for their backfield, which is Starks and Green sharing time and competing for carries.
10.Delone Carter, Ind
School: Syracuse | Ht: 5-8.5 | Wt: 222 | 40: 4.54 | Year: 4Sr
Fantasy Analysis: Sure, the Colts ranked 4th in total offense and 1st in passing offense in 2010, but the unit had plenty of problems. Aside from shaky pass protection and a banged-up receiving corps, the running game could never consistently get going and help sustain offense. Joseph Addai played in just eight games, Donald Brown often looked sluggish, and the team resorted to using Javarris James in the red zone and signing Dominic Rhodes. No Colt RB had more than 500 yards for the season, and the team’s running game ranked 29th in the league. Obviously, this will always be a passing team behind Peyton Manning, but a more consistent running game is a must. In steps Carter, who will likely get a chance to contribute early and whose pick is likely an indictment of Brown. Carter’s a solid pass blocker and has the bulk to succeed as an inside runner, so if he can consistently pick up positive yards, he’ll have a chance to play. That’s pretty much where the Colts are at right now. He may never become a true starter in the NFL, as he isn’t all that powerful – although he likes contact – and he doesn’t have great speed, but he has good instincts, vision, and burst through the hole. He has some similarities to the Colts’ Mike Hart – who has struggled with injuries – and what could determine his playing time is the questionable durability of Addai. And on the chance they have designs on being more physical and less explosive than we’re used to in the running game, this pick shows that they think Carter can be that guy.
Also worth listing:
Taiwan Jones (Oak) – One of the fastest prospects in the draft, Jones naturally ended up with the Raiders. He could be a satellite player used to get to the outside, beat defenders to the corner, and make plays in space, although if Michael Bush returns, the Raiders have a crowded backfield that includes Darren McFadden. Jones may not get a lot of touches, but he’s a home-run threat whenever he gets the ball in space, and new OC Al Saunders like diverse, versatile players. Jones’ upside increases significantly if the team lets Bush depart via free agency because McFadden proved last year to be a tough, physical inside runner. In that scenario, Jones could be utilized frequently as that dynamic, perimeter player.
Shane Vereen (NE) – Hey, another Patriot RB! Vereen has some similarities to Kevin Faulk in that he could be used as a 3rd-down back and receiver out of the backfield, although that was the role Danny Woodhead played last year. He’s a versatile player and should get on the field for several touches a game, especially if Faulk is gone. The Pats do love the RBBC, and since they took him in the 2nd round, they clearly want Vereen to be a big part of that committee.
Stevan Ridley (NE) – Despite getting better-than-expected production out of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead last year, the Patriots drafted another Woodhead (Vereen) and another Green-Ellis (Ridley). This is a crowded backfield that’s difficult to predict, and Ridley could take on the limited role of Sammy Morris, although he is a tough runner who actually has a better skill set than Green-Ellis. This is New England, and no one is going to be the lead guy. However, if the team surprisingly lets BJGE walk in free agency, then Ridley will take over his role. He’s a tough guy, and a smart guy, so he seems perfect for New England.
Johnny White (Buf) – A somewhat under-the-radar prospect, White didn’t produce until late in his college career. He runs with balance and toughness, though, and has upside with the ability to contribute as a receiver out of the backfield. He’ll complement Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and at 30 years old, it’s not like Jackson is young.
Evan Royster (Was) – Royster finished his career as Penn State’s all-time leading rusher, but he was a bit inconsistent and was actually at his best earlier in his career. If he’s fully committed, he did at least land in an ideal spot, as his running style is perfect for Mike Shanahan’s zone system. In fact, Shanahan told Royster he compares him to Terrell Davis. But if he’s to make a splash, he’ll likely need injuries to both Ryan Torain and fellow rookie Roy Helu. But stranger things have happened.
Jordan Todman (SD) – An extremely productive runner in college, Todman enters a crowded backfield situation with second-year man Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert. Todman’s role could be as a replacement for free agent Darren Sproles, as although he’s not quite as explosive, he has good speed and catches the ball well. There should be a small role for him right away if he’s ready and if Sproles does depart. But Mathews and Tolbert are both solid receivers, so Todman’s not going to put up serviceable numbers unless there’s an injury.
Dion Lewis (Phi) – Lewis flew under the radar after leaving Pitt early, despite a disappointing sophomore season. He’s a small back (yet solidly built) who can make plays happen in space because of his elusiveness, and he’ll join fellow Pitt product LeSean McCoy in the Eagle backfield. With Jerome Harrison hitting free agency, Lewis could make for a perfect replacement, as he’s a shifty runner with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.
Allen Bradford (TB) – Bradford was part of a crowded backfield at USC and was never a big-time producer. He’s one of the biggest backs available, and he has quick enough feet to make an impact as an inside runner. As a similar back to LeGarrette Blount, he could end up being the handcuff with some short-yardage work mixed in.
Jamie Harper (Ten) – The addition of Harper could mean the end of Javon Ringer’s stint as handcuff to Chris Johnson. Harper is an explosive back for someone who is 233 pounds, and while Johnson will still get most of the touches, Harper could take on a power role that would have been filled by LeGarrette Blount, had the Titans actually kept him around last year. The Titans regret letting Blount go, and they seem to be trying to recoup their losses by grabbing Harper. It’s fairly clear now that Ringer’s just a guy.
Bilal Powell (NYJ) – Powell will fight for whatever limited time is available behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene, and while Joe McKnight is also present, Powell is a different type of back. He must improve as a pass blocker, but he’s a solid inside runner who put up 1,405 yards for Louisville last year.
Post-Draft Keeper Rankings
1. Mark Ingram (NO, 21) – Nice player and landed in a really great spot, but we have to assume he won't get a ton of carries, yet he will get the rock enough to produce.
2. Daniel Thomas (MIA, 23) - Certainly looking like their guy and a viable lead runner in the NFL, so that's promising, but we’ll see if they bring in anyone else.
3. Ryan Williams (ARI, 21) – Safe bet he's the guy in 1-2 years and a very good back, but he's got some injury issues himself, and he does still have to rise to the top of depth chart. But might have most upside in class.
4. Mikel Leshoure (DET, 21) – Nice power back who will be active as an inside runner, but Jahvid Best will have a very active role so can't huge numbers.
5. Roy Helu (WAS, 22) – Very intriguing player who could seriously challenge for time because he’s a good fit for scheme and more explosive than Torain, but others here so no lock.
6. Kendall Hunter (SF, 23) - Very interesting and talented player who could help now and possibly replace Gore, as he can run inside with power for a smaller guy.
7. Alex Green (GB, 21) – Very talented guy who has power they need and good fit for scheme, which could mean the end of Grant in GB – otherwise deeper backup for now.
8. Stevan Ridley (NE, 22) – Looks like another version of BJGE and is probably better option for long-term but RBBC for now.
9. DeMarco Murray (DAL, 23) – More of a receiving threat, but could potentially get a chance to be featured as Jones has not panned out, yet college work shows situational back more than lead guy.
10. Jacquizz Rodgers (ATL, 21) – Looks like a really nice complementary back, but probably not a lead guy long-term.
11. Taiwan Jones (OAK, 23) – Really intriguing due to great speed and could surprise, but he’s more of a satellite player, and McFadden no slouch these days.
12. Delone Carter (IND, 24) – It might be a long shot for Indy, but could potentially carry somewhat heavy load as a power guy who can help them sustain offense.
13. Shane Vereen (NE, 22) – Looks like their new Kevin Faulk and a nice player but major RBBC here.
14. Jordan Todman (SD, 21) – Should have a role as speedy complement and replace Sproles.
15. Johnny White (BUF, 23) – Pretty solid runner who could eventually replace Jackson with Spiller very active.
16. Evan Royster (WAS, 23) – Another new Redskin back with a chance to grab control of a role at some point, but Helu looks like better prospect.
17. Dion Lewis (PHI, 20) – Smaller back with good quickness and looks like their type of guy, so he might be their backup.
18. Allen Bradford (TB, 23) – Decent prospect who looks like backup plan for Blount if he slips up.
19. Jamie Harper (TEN, 22) – Looks great on film with good size and speed so the likely backup.
20. Bilal Powell (NYJ, 22) – Bigger back who looks like a backup plan if Greene has issues.
21. Da'Rel Scott (NYG, 23) – Very speedy guy and a complement at best here long-term.
22. Anthony Allen (BAL, 23) – Could replace McGahee and McClain as short-yardage guy.
23. Jay Finley (CIN, 23) – Doesn't look like a potential lead back in the future.
Wide Receivers
1.Julio Jones, Atl
School: Alabama | Ht: 6-2.5 | Wt: 220 | 40: 4.34 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: We believe that A.J. Green is clearly the best WR in the class, but Jones has the advantage of stepping into one of the best situations in the NFL. The Falcons nearly pulled a Mike Ditka, trading a boatload of picks to get all the way to #6 overall to take Jones. The Falcon offense has a terrific core in Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner, and Tony Gonzalez, but it was missing an effective #2 WR to take some pressure off White, who led the league in catches. Neither Michael Jenkins nor Harry Douglas has proven he can be a consistent secondary option for the Falcon passing offense, while Jones has the talent to step in right away as a starter on the outside who can be dangerous as an intermediate target. Jones has terrific hands and body control, and he brings physicality to the receiver position with a Larry Fitzgerald-like skill set. He’s not as explosive as Green, but he can also make plays downfield, and he actually ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine on an injured foot. He does have lapses in concentration at times and has been known to drop the occasional easy pass, but he also makes highlight-reel catches with regularity. If they put him into the starting lineup, opposing defenses won’t be able to focus all their attention on White, yet Jones will benefit from the coverages Roddy commands. Jones has the talent and experience to make a transition quickly, and he played in a pro-style system at Alabama. To make the transition even smoother, Jones is a strong and willing blocker who isn’t afraid to mix it up with defenders.
2.A.J. Green, Cin
School: Georgia | Ht: 6-3.5 | Wt: 211 | 40: 4.48 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: Green is clearly the best WR in the draft, and with Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens likely gone from the Bengals, he’ll immediately step in as the team’s #1 WR. Given that he’s the best receiver in the draft and likely his team’s #1 WR, the only thing holding him back from the top ranking here is the Bengals’ questionable QB situation. Simply put, Julio Jones steps into a much more stable situation with an elite group of players around him. It’s hard to imagine that Carson Palmer will be back in Cincinnati, meaning rookie 2nd-round pick Andy Dalton will likely start at QB. Dalton is capable of playing right away and is a great fit for new OC Jay Gruden’s West Coast offense, although his somewhat limited arm strength may not be a great fit for Green’s ability to beat defenses deep. The Bengals believe they can move Green all around the field, and they want to take advantage of his explosiveness, ball skills, and polished route-running to create mismatches. Aside from questionable blocking, Green is the total package as a WR, and his ability as a playmaker shows shades of Randy Moss, yet Green’s a more complete player than Moss. The Bengals do have a versatile group of receivers now with Jordan Shipley making plays out of the slot and Jermaine Gresham hopefully taking a step forward at TE, so not all the pressure will be on Green. Again, he’s an elite talent and should be a top playmaker in the NFL, but now we have to wait and see how Dalton pans out. And on the chance that Palmer reconsiders (keep in mind, it’s still only May, and he’d be passing up a cool $11.5 million by failing to report), then Green’s clearly the top rookie receiver this year – and a nice fantasy sleeper to boot.
3.Jonathan Baldwin, KC
School: Pittsburgh | Ht: 6-4.5 | Wt: 228 | 40: 4.49 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: The Chiefs operated the league’s #1 rushing offense last season but were desperately lacking a #2 WR opposite Dwayne Bowe. Bowe and RB Jamaal Charles were often the only effective receivers for QB Matt Cassel, as an old Chris Chambers and Terrance Copper didn’t exactly strike fear into opponents’ hearts. A healthy Dexter McCluster and Tony Moeaki should contribute in 2011, but the Chiefs needed another big presence on the outside at WR, and Baldwin is a perfect fit for the team’s offensive scheme. He has questions about his inconsistency, and he’s not a polished route-runner. But Baldwin really is an elite talent and looks the part of a prototypical outside receiver in the NFL. If he stays focused and works on the little things, he has the ability to be a playmaker in the league because of his excellent combination of size, speed, and ball skills. He’s a deceptively fast wideout with a wide catch radius and someone who would be most effective in a run-based offense, one that will see eight in the box/single high safety on normal down and distance situations, similar to Vincent Jackson. That would describe Baldwin’s situation in Kansas City. The Chiefs will still revolve around running the football, but if Baldwin pans out, opposing defenses won’t be able to devote all their attention to Bowe and Charles, as Baldwin has big-play potential. His size and ball skills also make him a legitimate red zone threat, meaning Cassel could have plenty of options near the goal line, with Baldwin, Moeaki, and a touchdown machine in Bowe. If he reaches his potential, Baldwin could be KC’s answer to Jackson in San Diego.
4.Greg Little, Cle
School: North Carolina | Ht: 6-2.5 | Wt: 231 | 40: 4.51 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: Few teams needed a WR as badly as the Browns, but they opted to trade out of the 6th pick and let the Falcons grab Julio Jones. Instead of getting one of the top receivers, they ended up with Little, a former RB who was sidelined for the entire 2010 season because of issues with the NCAA. The Browns’ top two receivers last year were TE Ben Watson and RB Peyton Hillis, and no WR had more than 483 yards. That means there is plenty of room for Little to step in and possibly start, despite being a year removed from football. He has good size and actually has similarities to Jones, and he should be a good fit for the Browns as an intermediate receiver for Colt McCoy. Little is a physical presence who will fight for the ball and fight through traffic, and he is also somewhat explosive, shifty, and difficult to bring down in space, which isn’t surprising, given his background as a running back. Missing the entire 2010 season is going to be a tough red flag to get by, but if you look at a receiving corps that features Mohamed Massaquoi, Chansi Stuckey, and Brian Robiskie, it’s a bit easier to picture Little earning playing time. Unless he doesn’t pick up the offense quickly enough – and keep in mind the lockout will hurt him here – the feisty Little will get his wish, which is to get back onto the football field in a prominent role.
5.Leonard Hankerson, Was
School: Miami | Ht: 6-1.5 | Wt: 209 | 40: 4.41 | Year: 4Sr
Fantasy Analysis: For a receiver who wants to contribute immediately, Washington is a perfect landing spot. Santana Moss was the team’s only reliable WR last season, as Anthony Armstrong was little more than a deep threat. Even if Moss is back, the team needed to draft a WR, preferably one with size like Hankerson, and Moss is a free agent and could go elsewhere. Hankerson was the first of three WRs the Redskins drafted, along with Niles Paul and slot man Aldrick Robinson. All will have a shot to play, but Hankerson should be in line for a significant role, although that role is a bit unclear. While he’s thought of as a player with potential to start on the outside as the #2, he also played a lot in the slot in college, despite his lack of quickness. If Hankerson starts, ideally Moss will be back and starting opposite him. Hankerson’s a physical presence who can go over the middle, but although he ran a fast 40 time, he doesn’t play that fast. He’s just a solid all-around receiver who may not have any elite skills. Still, the complete lack of talent at WR for the Redskins should force Hankerson into early action, probably as a starter. How much he produces is another question, though, as the Redskins are potentially looking at Rex Grossman as their starting QB.
6.Vincent Brown, SD
School: San Diego State | Ht: 5-11.5 | Wt: 187 | 40: 4.68 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: The Charger receiving corps was overwhelmed by injuries and the holdout of Vincent Jackson last season, and the team was all over the local college product Brown during the draft process. While Brown’s sluggish 40 time may be off-putting to some, he’s a very solid receiver who has the potential to be a #2 guy on the outside. It’s unlikely that both Jackson and Malcom Floyd will be back, and while Floyd is a free agent, it’s possible the Chargers will try to bring him back and trade Jackson. Meanwhile, Legedu Naanee is not expected to return. That leaves plenty of room for Brown to contribute instantly in a dangerous passing offense led by Philip Rivers, and he has the talent to do just that. He’s a smart receiver with good character and the versatility to play outside or in the slot, and he is comparable to the Ravens’ Derrick Mason as a guy who’s not big or fast but has an excellent feel for the position and moves well laterally. Despite his subpar timed speed, Brown has good quickness, and while he might not be able to get a lot of separation with that speed, he’s a polished receiver who runs good routes. He’s also a hard worker, and he’s smart. Either Floyd or Jackson will be back, and both of those guys are downfield threats. Brown can be more of an intermediate target who can help sustain offense as a guy who can consistently move the chains. His value may be tied a bit to Jackson’s and Floyd’s status, but even if he’s just the third WR target in this excellent passing game, there’s enough production to go around to merit this high of a ranking.
7. Cecil Shorts, Jac
School: Mount Union | Ht: 5-11.5 | Wt: 205 | 40: 4.43 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: If you’ve never heard of Shorts, well, you’re probably not the only one. He was the only Division III prospect taken in the draft and just the 11th in the last 15 years, and he comes from D-III powerhouse Mount Union – the same school as Pierre Garcon and Dom Capers. With Mike Sims-Walker likely headed out of Jacksonville, the Jaguars have almost nobody at WR. The group includes Mike Thomas and Jason Hill as the likely starters with Jarrett Dillard, Kassim Osgood, and Tiquan Underwood also on the roster, so Shorts certainly has a very good shot to play. The Jaguars will probably – well, hopefully – add a veteran receiver to the mix because that receiving corps is about as thin as it gets for a shaky QB situation. But no matter what, there should be room for Shorts to compete. He’s a technically sound route-runner who knows how to set up CBs, and he has the physical tools to be a solid possession receiver. Plus, he put up an impressive 40 time and is a dynamic player who can occasionally make a big play. It’s hard to expect too much from a D-III guy coming into the NFL as a rookie, but HC Jack Del Rio said he expects Shorts to compete for time as the #3 WR right away, and despite the subpar competition in college, Shorts is a very polished receiver. He’s not the explosive receiver that the Jaguars need on the outside, but again, there’s plenty of room in that thin receiving corps for him to earn playing time and catch passes out of the slot. As the season progresses, the question could become who the quarterback is, as the Jaguars may have a competition between veteran David Garrard and rookie Blaine Gabbert, depending on how competitive the team is.
8.Torrey Smith, Bal
School: Maryland | Ht: 6-1 | Wt: 204 | 40: 4.41 | Year: 4Jr
Fantasy Analysis: A lot was made of the Ravens’ new WR corps of Anquan Boldin, Derrick Mason, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh last season, but it largely failed. Mason was solid as usual, but Boldin was inconsistent and a disappointment outside of a few big games, and Houshmandzadeh did next to nothing. To make things worse, they were all basically the same receiver as intermediate threats who couldn’t stretch defenses. It was hoped that Donte Stallworth might add a different element to the passing game, but he caught 2 passes all season. It was clear the Ravens would target speed in the draft, and Smith was the guy they wanted. He was one of the fastest receivers available, capable of making big plays on offense and as a return man. The problem is that he’s still a bit raw, as he ran a limited route tree in college, and he’ll need some work to develop into a more complete receiver. Still, his speed is exactly what the Ravens need in their offense, and he should provide an immediate deep threat for Joe Flacco, plus he also gives them some needed size. That’s not to say he’s going to catch a lot of passes, as he’ll probably be far from a good PPR option, at least initially. Instead, he could be a big-play guy good for a couple of catches a game. Plus, he actually lacks lateral quickness and is more of a straight-line runner. The good news is he’s a high-character guy who’s more than willing to put in the work, and he got better as the year progressed last year. Over time, he could become a more dangerous all-around receiver, and their #1.
9.Titus Young, Det
School: Boise State | Ht: 5-11.5 | Wt: 174 | 40: 4.43 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: The Lions love Young’s big-play ability, and he gives the offense yet another threat in what’s quickly becoming a talented young group, led, of course, by WR Calvin Johnson. The key is QB Matthew Stafford’s health, but if he stays on the field, Stafford has the big arm to take advantage of Young’s ability to stretch the field. Young has some similarities to DeSean Jackson, and while he’s not quite as explosive or fast, he has elite speed and is a similar player in terms of what he can do as a return man and big-play receiver. With Johnson and Nate Burleson in place, Young has a chance to contribute as a slot receiver, and his vertical explosiveness allows him to create and dictate matchups and “blow the top off coverage” and make big plays. His small frame may prevent him from developing into a starter on the outside, but that’s not what the Lions need him to do right now. They’re actually in good shape with their WRs on the outside, and Young provides a different dimension who must be accounted for by defenses because of his playmaking ability. He’ll just need Stafford to stay on the field because backup Shaun Hill’s arm strength is mediocre, at best.
10.Randall Cobb, GB
School: Kentucky | Ht: 5-10.5 | Wt: 191 | 40: 4.46 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: The addition of Cobb gives the Packers yet another weapon, and they may have some room for one with the expected loss of James Jones to free agency. The Packers believe Cobb can play right away, and they also see him as an asset to their return game, which they saw as a weakness last season. It’s hard to predict how much Cobb will see the ball, as he will be able to get on the field in the slot in three- and four-receiver sets, but the Packers are essentially adding another All-Pro talent in TE Jermichael Finley after he missed the most of the 2010 season. Of course, you can’t count on the aging Donald Driver to stay healthy, but even with the loss of Jones, the receiving corps would feature Greg Jennings, Driver, Jordy Nelson, and Finley, who is often flexed out and can pretty much play anywhere to create mismatches. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for Cobb to contribute. Still, the Packers believe he is an NFL-ready player, and they utilize a lot of spread formations with one of the league’s elite QBs in Aaron Rodgers. Cobb can be a real asset to the offense, as he is at his best as an elusive threat in space who constantly makes defenders miss. He’s not a great deep threat and won’t start on the outside, but he’s a reliable possession receiver (they love his hands) who has the ability to pick up yards after the catch and should carve out a role as a dynamic slot receiver.
Also worth listing:
Denarius Moore (Oak) - Moore may have been a steal for the Raiders in the 5th round, as he had excellent pre-draft workouts and really stepped up as a senior at Tennessee, despite inconsistent QB play. He ran a 4.37 40-yard dash at his pro day, and he has a chance to contribute as a deep threat early in his career. The Raiders did see Jacoby Ford emerge a bit last year, and we love Ford, but Moore has a good chance to earn playing time in a lackluster receiving corps that is still waiting for Darrius Heyward-Bey to develop any kind of consistency. Still, Moore is a bit limited right now, as he’s more of a straight-line player who needs to learn how to run intermediate routes. He has good body control though, and he’ll be a threat to make plays downfield. Of course, Heyward-Bey, Ford, and Louis Murphy can all theoretically do the same. Look for a competition for playing time at WR, and Moore has a chance to get on the field, although it would help if the Raiders got improved QB play from Jason Campbell.
Edmond Gates (Mia) – Hailing from the same school as Johnny Knox, Gates is a game-breaking receiver with exceptional speed. He’s very raw as receiver but has the potential to emerge as a big-play threat, and that’s something the Dolphins could use alongside Brandon Marshall with slot man Davone Bess and the mediocre Brian Hartline. But right now he looks like a speed guy who doesn’t quite play up to his speed just yet, so he might need some seasoning.
Jerrel Jernigan (NYG) – A small target at just 5’9”, 185 pounds, Jernigan is a versatile player who can be lined up all over the field, and once he gets the ball in space, he’s extremely difficult to bring down because of his elusiveness and quick feet. He’s considered very crafty, and despite his lack of size he’s known for being willing to go over the middle. What adds to Jernigan’s value is his ability to return kicks and contribute on special teams right away, and he could provide insurance for Steve Smith.
Kris Durham (Sea) – After missing the 2009 season with a shoulder injury, Durham played opposite A.J. Green at Georgia and averaged 20.6 yards per catch last season. At 6’4”, he gives Seattle a tall receiver who can stretch the field. He’s a rangy target with sneaky receiving skills, and Seattle seems to really like him. Given their shaky receiving corps, he’s definitely someone to watch because he could quickly carve a large role here. At the very least, Durham looks like a very viable red zone target, given his excellent size.
Greg Salas (Stl) – Salas was incredibly productive in Hawaii’s run-and-shoot offense, and while he’ll be a slot receiver initially, he could play on the outside down the road. He’s tough, physical, and good after the catch. The problem is that he enters a very crowded – and mediocre – receiving corps that already features a solid slot guy in Danny Amendola.
Austin Pettis (Stl) – Pettis joins Greg Salas as new WRs in the Rams’ crowded receiving corps. Pettis is a smart player who is versatile enough to play anywhere on the field, and his route-running ability could allow him to compete for a job in the slot. He’s very polished and dependable, and he could be a great red zone threat for them, due to his size.
Niles Paul (Was) – Paul is a physically imposing receiver with good strength and elusiveness. He had an inconsistent college career and will need to prove he can be reliable, but he could contribute early on as a return man. He’s one of three rookie receivers for a Redskin offense that needs all the help it can get, especially with Santana Moss’s impending free agency.
Tandon Doss (Bal) – Doss could make an impact as a return man, and he could potentially develop into a #2 WR in the NFL down the road because of his reliable hands, size, and physical ability. While Torrey Smith brings speed to the Raven WR corps, Doss could be an eventual replacement for Derrick Mason.
Kealoha Pilares (Car) – Pilares is another productive Hawaii WR who still was a 1,000-yard receiver, despite playing alongside Greg Salas. He joins a young group of Panther receivers with a young QB, and he has a chance to work his way into a slot job. He’s a great fit for that role in the new offense, as he’s fearless over the middle and as tough as nails, a la Wes Welker. He’s considered very smart and savvy, so he could grab the slot receiver job right away here.
Dwayne Harris (Dal) – Harris isn’t the most physically gifted receiver with questionable speed and inconsistent hands, but he is a solid route-runner and was very productive in college. With Roy Williams’ future in question, the Cowboys could have room for another WR to get on the field.
Stephen Burton (Min) – Burton hails from the West Texas A&M, a small school that’s the illustrious alma mater of Keith Null. Burton has an impressive combination of size and athleticism, although he is a raw developmental prospect who will need time to become a contributor.
Aldrick Robinson (Was) – The third rookie WR taken by the Redskins, Robinson is a potential slot receiver who is undersized but has exceptional quickness. His speed makes him a solid deep threat, too, and he’ll be in a fight for playing time in what’s a very weak receiving corps in need of an infusion of young talent.
Jeremy Kerley (NYJ) – Kerley caught 10 TDs as a receiver for Andy Dalton at TCU last season, and what helps his cause for the NFL is his ability to contribute on special teams. He’s also an athletic slot receiver who could replace Brad Smith if he leaves in free agency.
Post-Draft Keeper Rankings
1. A.J. Green (CIN, 23) – Elite talent who can do it all, so the only issue is the QB, as Andy Dalton is not a high-end talent.
2. Julio Jones (ATL, 22) – Very promising skill set, but he will play second fiddle to Roddy White for a while.
3. Jonathan Baldwin (KC, 22) – Could be a real stud in this ideal scheme, but some character issues plus Bowe, and it’s not the greatest situation with shakier QB.
4. Vincent Brown (SD, 22) – Really nice player and lands in a great spot, so only question is starter on outside or inside in '11, and it will likely be outside at some point soon.
5. Greg Little (CLE, 22) – Has the size and speed to make a big impact, but QB isn't ideal here.
6. Leonard Hankerson (WAS, 23) – Looks like a future starter with a great need here and solid player, but there are questions about his playing on the outside, as he played inside a lot in college.
7. Torrey Smith (BAL, 22) – Little raw for short term and a little too straight line, but has great speed thus upside with Flacco, and they needed his size.
8. Cecil Shorts (JAC, 23) – Certainly has a chance and drafted to help them for sure, and he understands route-running, but small school product, so no lock.
9. Randall Cobb (GB, 21) – Might take a couple of years, but a nice player who could carve large niche after he contributes as a role player first.
10. Denarius Moore (OAK, 22) – Exciting potential as he can fly and they love speed, but bit of a logjam here right now, and right now he’s more of a vertical guy only.
11. Greg Salas (STL, 23) – Lots of guys here so we'll have to see, but we do like him inside due to his toughness, and he could play outside down the road.
12. Austin Pettis (STL, 23) – We'll rank him somewhat high for now as he does have a chance to be a starter eventually and can play outside or inside.
13. Niles Paul (WAS, 22) – Looks like a potential starter in 1-2 years, as he was highly regarded in draft.
14. Titus Young (DET, 22) – Nice player and landed in a good spot, but he might be only a slot guy here.
15. Edmond Gates (MIA, 25) – Some upside for sure as he has great speed, but he is also raw and has a lot to learn before he’s able to take advantage of his speed.
16. Tandon Doss (BAL, 21) – Looks like their eventual replacement for Derrick Mason, which is solid.
17. Jerrel Jernigan (NYG, 22) – Nice puzzle piece to an offense, but value hinges on S. Smith status.
18. Kris Durham (SEA, 23) – They took him in the 4th round, and they really do like him, so someone to watch with job attainable.
19. Aldrick Robinson (WAS, 22) – Looks like a slot guy here but could be a very good one.
20. Kealoha Pilares (CAR, 23) – Had big numbers in college, but so does everyone at HI, yet there is an opportunity here.
21. Stephen Burton (MIN, 21) – Some size and potential, but unrefined and only 7th- round pick.
22. Dwayne Harris (DAL, 24) – Interesting guy for them to play in the slot, but would be 4th option at best.
23. Ronald Johnson (SF, 23) – Has some big-play ability, but average size, and he slipped in the draft.
24. Jeremy Kerley (NYJ, 22) – Looks like a slot guy so hard to expect too much here unless someone leaves, which is possible.
25. Ryan Whalen (CIN, 22) – Looks like a deep backup for now.
Tight Ends
1.Kyle Rudolph, Min
School: Notre Dame | Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 259 | 40: 4.75 | Year: 3Jr
Fantasy Analysis: Rudolph was pretty much the consensus #1 TE on the draft board, and it got to a point in the 2nd round where the Vikings felt he was the best player on the board and they had to take him. It’s a curious pick because we feel as if Visanthe Shiancoe has a lot left in the tank and is still one of the more underrated TEs in football, but Rudolph allows offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to do some creative things with two-TE sets. Plus, Shiancoe’s contract expires after this season (as do the contracts of Jim Kleinsasser and Jeff Dugan), and if Rudolph proves to be ready to matriculate to the NFL level, he could take over as the full-time starter as soon as 2012. But for right now, the Vikings view the Rudolph/Shiancoe tag team a nightmare for opposing defenses, and two-TE sets could become the norm in Minnesota this season. There are some concerns, however. Rudolph played hurt for the early part of the 2010 season at Notre Dame, as a sore hamstring limited his downfield speed. Eventually, Rudolph tore the hamstring off the bone, requiring season-ending surgery. And last off-season, he underwent surgery to repair a separated shoulder. If Rudolph proves healthy, he could see snaps early and often, as he was the most polished TE coming out of the draft, and his size alone should make him an adept blocker for Adrian Peterson (he’ll also need to help out this atrocious offensive line). Rudolph still needs to refine his blocking technique and prove he’s healthy, but we like the fit. He’s unlikely to develop into a deep threat in the NFL, but he’s always been able to move pretty well, and he even had a 95-yard TD catch against Michigan last September before his hamstring injury. Rudolph has drawn a lot of comparisons to the Patriots’ Rob Gronkowski, who was able to make an instant impact as a rookie. With a rookie QB in Christian Ponder and the return of Shiancoe, Rudolph might not catch 40-50 balls, but the rebuilding Vikings will do everything they can to find out what he can do.
2.Lance Kendricks, Stl
School: Wisconsin | Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 243 | 40: 4.65 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: We had two thoughts when the Rams selected Kendricks in the second round: “That’s interesting” and “That could be a headache.” First, we didn’t really anticipate Josh McDaniels selecting a TE so early, given how little he used them in Denver last season. Second, the Rams already juggled among Michael Hoomanawanui, Daniel Fells, and the one and only Billy Bajema last year. Is Kendricks going to come in and contribute immediately, or is he going to be yet another cog in this ugly TEBC? At least based on pure skill level, with no elite TEs available in this year’s draft, Kendricks may be the safest bet to contribute immediately as a receiver. He lacks size and has decent but not elite speed, but he’s proven himself as one of the nation’s most productive receiving TEs in a conventional running offense at Wisconsin (he actually started out as a WR at Wisconsin). On the downside, blocking could be an issue because of his size, and he could be used in more of an H-back role, which McDaniels likes. Still, he’s at least willing as a blocker, and he can be used in a variety of positions and has the ability to stretch defenses. Of course, a concern is that we said these same things about another former Wisconsin TE in Travis Beckum, who has underperformed in the NFL. By the same token, it’s impossible to label Kendricks as a bust risk before we actually see him on the field, and the Rams opted to take him in the second round, despite having multiple players already at the position. They believe he can be a move player who can help in multiple ways, and with that, they’re clearly making a commitment to help out QB Sam Bradford. We thought Kendricks had a chance to come right into the league and be the most productive player from this weak TE class, but the logjam at the Rams’ skill positions makes that a tougher prediction. But again, he’s gifted enough to win any competition in camp, and we believe McDaniels is creative enough to get the most out of him. At the least, the addition of Kendricks could make re-signing Daniel Fells, who could be a RFA or UFA based on free-agency rules, less of a priority.
3.Rob Housler, Ari
School: Florida Atlantic | Ht: 6-5.5 | Wt: 248 | 40: 4.51 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: Could the Arizona Cardinals finally move past the Ben Patricks and Steven Spachs of the world and enter the 21st century of fantasy TEs? Their pick of Housler suggests they absolutely will. Don’t get us wrong. Housler is a project and should be treated as such, but he provides an exciting contrast to the boring players Cardinal fans have been dealing with for years, and that should be recognized. On the surface, he reminds us a lot of Owen Daniels. He moves like a WR despite being nearly 6’6”, and he projects as a guy who can create mismatches away from the formation and across the middle. Housler also projects as a viable red-zone threat, as scouts came away from workouts very impressed with his leaping ability. Housler has deep speed rare for a TE, so he might be able to play the Anquan Boldin role alongside Larry Fitzgerald in this offense. There are two things about Housler that are clear when watching him on film: He might be the most natural receiver selected at the TE position this year, and he cannot block a lick. That tells us exactly how the Cardinals plan to use him. He’ll be a move player to create mismatches and take double-teams away from Fitzgerald. Also, could the addition of Housler signal the Cards want to make a move for a QB like Kevin Kolb? Kolb is an excellent intermediate-area passer, and Brent Celek, in particular, thrived with Kolb at QB in Philadelphia. That might be a symptom of reading the tea leaves a little bit too hard, but it’s also clear that Housler looks like a player the Cardinals haven’t had in a long time. If he begins to look like a somewhat competent blocker, he could see the field early and often as a rookie. Otherwise, since he’s really athletic, he’s a very interesting and appealing dynasty prospect.
4.Luke Stocker, TB
School: Tennessee | Ht: 6-4.5 | Wt: 258 | 40: 4.70 | Year: 5Sr
Fantasy Analysis: Although Kellen Winslow has played in all 32 possible games since becoming a Buccaneer, it’s no secret that his knees aren’t exactly the healthiest in the NFL. So it should be no surprise (especially with the contracts of John Gilmore and Jerramy Stevens expiring) that the Bucs added some insurance with Stocker, a guy who projects as a solid #2 TE at the next level and who has a chance to start if he improves either his blocking or receiving to better than average. But for right now, as a fantasy prospect, it’s hard to imagine Stocker becoming much more than “just a guy.” In ways, he’s a poor man’s Jason Witten. The Tennessee link makes for an easy comparison, but there are other similarities as well. Stocker has good size at 6’5”, 258 pounds, and although he improved his 40 time at his pro day, his time of 4.71 seconds still lags behind the other top prospects at the position. Although he’s not a true mauler, Stocker is a willing and able blocker. In other words, he is simply a solid all-around player who has reliable hands and was fairly productive in the SEC, despite extremely shaky QB play at Tennessee. He’ll never be someone who can stretch the field, but he can contribute as a more conventional player used in two-TE sets who can find open space on short and intermediate routes. The Bucs might want to add a more reliable veteran behind Winslow if they’re worried about his health, but Stocker does project as a good #2 TE and a great fit in Tampa for QB Josh Freeman.
5.Julius Thomas, Den
School: Portland State | Ht: 6-4.5 | Wt: 246 | 40: 4.64 | Year: 4Sr
Fantasy Analysis: Typically, we wouldn’t feel great about a TE on a John Fox-coached team, but we think Thomas has some of the upside needed to break the Jeff King/Dante Rosario curse. Thomas is one of the “basketball athletes” who have been so popular at the TE position since Tony Gonzalez helped redefine it, and guys like Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham have carried on the tradition. Like Graham coming out of Miami last year, Thomas is an unrefined athlete who flashes impeccable receiving skills, but he’s far from a finished product. However, the Broncos must have seen something they liked in Thomas, enough to warrant a 4th-round pick. If Thomas is going to contribute this year, it’s going to be strictly as a receiver because he did not show the necessary upper-body strength to block effectively in the NFL. If Thomas wants to become a complete player, he absolutely must get stronger (he benched just 225 pounds 16 times at the combine). There’s no telling right now whether Tim Tebow or Kyle Orton will be the Broncos’ Week One starter at QB, but it might it not be a stretch to assume Thomas will be starting at TE. He’s an unfinished product, but he has enough skill to dedicate patience and effort to the cause. Remember, the Broncos let Daniel Graham go, and for what it’s worth (Jimmy) Graham helped the Saints big-time down the stretch, probably a season earlier than expected. If Thomas flashes enough, it might be hard to keep him off the field. Remember, however, that they also draftedVirgil Green, a good player who fell because of health concerns. If Green is healthy, he might be a more finished and ready product come the start of the season. But ultimately, Thomas projects to be a better route runner and lateral-move guy than the more vertical Green. This will be an interesting position to watch in camp.
Also worth listing:
Jordan Cameron (Cle) – Cameron is a long-term project with upside as a former basketball player. He didn’t even catch a pass until his senior season, so to expect immediate production would be unwise, but keep an eye on him because of his athleticism. Unfortunately, the position is crowded in Cleveland with Ben Watson and Evan Moore, so he may have to be patient.
Virgil Green (Den) – Green could be a true steal, falling to the late rounds because of health concerns. Ideally, he projects as a vertical threat like Vernon Davis, and if healthy he could be a game-changer. He’ll have competition from fellow rookie Julius Thomas, who can move a little better laterally, and Green has to answer concerns about his previous knee injury, one that likely caused him to fall all the way to the 7th round in the draft.
D.J. Williams (GB) – At just 6’2”, Williams doesn’t have ideal size at the TE position, which might speak to why he fell to the fifth round. But he has great versatility and could theoretically play FB/H-back in a move system if he improves his blocking, and the Packers can certainly get production from a guy like that. He can contribute on special teams, and he might be ready to step in early because he played in a pro-style offense at Arkansas.
Charles Clay (Mia) – Clay was a reliable pass-catcher in college who fell because he isn’t spectacular in any one area. The Dolphins just re-signed Anthony Fasano to a two-year deal, but as recently as 2008, they used an effective two-TE system, and Clay could well become a move option to create mismatches. For now, he’ll play behind Fasano.
Richard Gordon (Oak) – Gordon weighs nearly 270 pounds but still runs a 4.65 40, incredible speed for a guy that size (surprised that Al Davis took him?). Like many Raider picks, he’s a more unpolished athlete than a ready football player, but he gives consistent effort when blocking and could see the field as a vertical mismatch type of player. His role could get really interesting if the Raiders opt to let Zach Miller go.
Post-Draft Keeper Rankings
1. Kyle Rudolph (MIN, 21) – Clearly drafted to be their guy likely starting in 2011 so worth having for long-term.
2. Lance Kendricks(STL, 23) – McDaniels doesn't have a good track record with TEs, but he did go get him in the draft, and he can be moved around a lot because of his athleticism.
3. Rob Housler (ARI, 23) – Athletic TE who has great size, can be moved around, and looks like Owen Daniels, plus they must like him based on draft so nice upside here believe it or not (for the Cardinals).
4. Jordan Cameron (CLE, 23) – Seems like a major project as a former basketball player, but also has big upside down the road.
5. Julius Thomas (DEN, 23) – Another big time athlete who will need some time, plus Green was drafted, too, but big upside.
6. Luke Stocker (TB, 23) – Not dynamic and looks like a potential role player for now, but solid and possible starter once Winslow retires.
7. Virgil Green (DEN, 23) – Very athletic and has upside, but they also drafted another athlete in Thomas, and Green has a knee concern.
8. D.J. Williams (GB, 22) – Interesting talent, but clearly he's the #3 guy at best, and others ahead of him are young.
9. Charles Clay (MIA, 24) – We'll have to see where he plays, as he could play FB but he's productive.
10. Richard Gordon (OAK, 23) – Looks like a glorified tackle and has had some injury issues.
Senior Writer and College Football Expert Matt Brown did most of the heavy lifting for this report, with an active assist from Publisher John Hansen and contributions from Senior Writer Joe Dolan.
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