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by John Hansen, Publisher

Published, 5/10/11

 

Last week I participated in my first fantasy draft of the 2011 season, for MyFantasyLeague.com. This was a 12-team, 20-round draft that was a NON-PPR scoring system. The starting lineup requirement was 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex (RB/WR), 1 PK, and DT. This league will be played out in a “Best Ball” format, meaning there will be no transactions or starting lineups submitted all year, so the guys you drafted are yours for the season, and they’re all you have for the season.

 

I wasn’t exactly concerned about the format and “winning” but was more interested in testing the 2011 waters and trying out some strategies and theories. I thought my draft went pretty well, which was a little bit of an achievement, as I was watching my 5-year old twins while drafting, and watching them is like watching four kids. I fed, bathed, and bedded them while doing this draft, so I did lose focus at times, but my early overall 2011 plan was basically carried out. 

 

Round One

 

Pick

Overall

Selection

1.01

1

Foster, Arian HOU RB

1.02

2

Peterson, Adrian MIN RB

1.03

3

Johnson, Chris TEN RB

1.04

4

Charles, Jamaal KCC RB

1.05

5

Rice, Ray BAL RB

1.06

6

Johnson, Andre HOU WR

1.07

7

Turner, Michael ATL RB

1.08

8

Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB

1.09

9

Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB

1.1

10

Johnson, Calvin DET WR

1.11

11

McFadden, Darren OAK RB

1.12

12

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB

 

Analysis: I know he has the knee issue, but Maurice Jones Drew’s ahead of schedule in his return, and the guy played on the damn thing for over a month. MJD’s already said that he “owes” fantasy players this year, and he would know because he drafted himself in the Sirius Celebrity League I was in with him. MJD finished near the bottom, and I won the league, so he also owes himself. Yeah, I know he lost some short TDs last year, but in his first four seasons, the guy average 12½ rushing TDs per season, so I’m not terribly concerned. Very much worth a shot at #8, as I still trust him more than Rashard Mendenhall.

 

Good Value: None of note.

 

Bad Value: I would be nervous taking Darren McFadden in the first round. That might have been a little high for Jamaal Charles, but he’s probably a top-7 pick, so it’s not bad.

 

Round Two

 

2.01

13

McCoy, LeSean PHI RB

2.02

14

Gore, Frank SFO RB

2.03

15

Vick, Michael PHI QB

2.04

16

Brees, Drew NOS QB

2.05

17

Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR

2.06

18

Jackson, Steven STL RB

2.07

19

Rivers, Philip SDC QB

2.08

20

Hillis, Peyton CLE RB

2.09

21

Jennings, Greg GBP WR

2.1

22

Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR

2.11

23

White, Roddy ATL WR

2.12

24

Forte, Matt CHI RB

 

Analysis: I didn’t feel comfortable enough with any of the remaining RBs, and it was a tad too early for a QB, so I opted for Hakeem Nicks, who was the #1 fantasy WR in PPG. Yes, he got hurt, but he also came back way quicker than anyone expected, and he produced after he came back. He looks like a borderline stud, and he should be very active, especially with Steve Smith’s status in doubt. I like the continuity here with the Giants in an unstable off-season.

 

Good Value: None of note.

 

Bad Value: That’s a little high for a QB in Philip Rivers before Peyton Manning. I would not take Peyton Hillis that high, even though I’m sure he will be the guy again. He was great, but he’s far from special and he did wear down, so Montario Hardesty could be in the mix.

 

Round Three

3.01

25

Jackson, DeSean PHI WR

3.02

26

Manning, Peyton IND QB

3.03

27

Wayne, Reggie IND WR

3.04

28

Mathews, Ryan SDC RB

3.05

29

Wallace, Mike PIT WR

3.06

30

Best, Jahvid DET RB

3.07

31

Brady, Tom NEP QB

3.08

32

Gates, Antonio SDC TE

3.09

33

Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR

3.1

34

Austin, Miles DAL WR

3.11

35

Jackson, Vincent SDC WR

3.12

36

Colston, Marques NOS WR

 

Analysis: Tough call between some of the remaining top wideouts like Miles Austin and Vincent Jackson, but I found it hard to pass on Antonio Gates, who was putting up ridiculous numbers before getting hurt last year. He’ll have nine months to recover, and while his numbers may go down a bit, the guy’s as steady as they come, and once again I get excellent continuity by investing in a very good and stable Charger offense.

 

Good Value: None of note.

 

Bad Value: There’s no way Jahvid Best should be going this high, especially since this is a not a PPR league.

 

Round Four

4.01

37

Thomas, Daniel MIA RB

4.02

38

Bryant, Dez DAL WR

4.03

39

Blount, LeGarrette TBB RB

4.04

40

Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB

4.05

41

Romo, Tony DAL QB

4.06

42

Clark, Dallas IND TE

4.07

43

Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB

4.08

44

Williams, Mike TBB WR

4.09

45

Marshall, Brandon MIA WR

4.1

46

Finley, Jermichael GBP TE

4.11

47

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB

4.12

48

Welker, Wes NEP WR

 

Analysis: Just as I did last year in some leagues, I found myself grabbing at least one stud at each position to be my foundation, and that strategy looks good again this year. Tony Romo was the remaining stud QB, although “stud” may be a bit of a stretch. But no doubt he can put up huge numbers, and again, I get great stability in an offense that should handle the lockout better than most. I’ve actually now taken four players who got injured last year, but that’s more of a coincidence than a trend. All four guys have been otherwise durable. I think it’s wise to play it safer this year, in general, but with these four guys, their stability and excellent track records (Nicks doesn’t have a long one) made me feel like they weren’t as risky as one would think based on their 2010 injuries. The other player I considered in this round was WR Mike Williams (TB).

 

Good Value: Once again, nothing outstanding.

 

Bad Value: Daniel Thomas in the 4th round was a bit of a leap of faith, especially since we’re not sure if they will sign another back. Wes Welker in a Non-PPR was a shaky pick.

 

Round Five

 

5.01

49

Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR

5.02

50

Lloyd, Brandon DEN WR

5.03

51

Greene, Shonn NYJ RB

5.04

52

Ryan, Matt ATL QB

5.05

53

Witten, Jason DAL TE

5.06

54

Holmes, Santonio NYJ WR

5.07

55

Rice, Sidney MIN WR

5.08

56

Ingram, Mark NOS RB

5.09

57

Boldin, Anquan BAL WR

5.1

58

Benson, Cedric CIN RB

5.11

59

Johnson, Steve BUF WR

5.12

60

Collie, Austin IND WR

 

Analysis: By taking a QB and TE in the first four rounds, I’m obviously going to be a little weaker at RB, but that’s not a bad way to go this year because there are so many RBs who have a chance to make an impact. At some point, I should be able to find an impact player, whether it be with this pick here of Mark Ingram, someone later in the draft, or off the WW. So it’s probably more important to get a high-end QB and TE than a #2 RB who might not get the chance to put up big numbers. Ingram won’t be a 20-carry-a-game guy, but how many of those are left in the NFL, anyway? Not many, and Ingram’s in a great offense. They moved up and gave up a ton to draft him, and no one in their backfield should seriously challenge him for the active role they anticipate. Sure, others will play, so he could be a tad frustrating at times, but he could also score 10 TDs and total over 1000 yards.

 

Good Value: The best value of this round was probably Steve Johnson, who will get his boy Ryan Fitzpatrick back under center all year in 2011. They didn’t add a WR in the draft, so barring a shocking development in free agency, Johnson is the guy.

 

Bad Value: At this point I would not take Shonn Green this high. He’s a good back, but for whatever reason, they don’t seem committed to making him their guy. Especially with LaDainian Tomlinson expected back this year, the 5th round is too early for Greene.

 

Round Six

 

6.01

61

Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB

6.02

62

Schaub, Matt HOU QB

6.03

63

Harvin, Percy MIN WR

6.04

64

Davis, Vernon SFO TE

6.05

65

Britt, Kenny TEN WR

6.06

66

Thomas, Mike JAC WR

6.07

67

Garcon, Pierre IND WR

6.08

68

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

6.09

69

Daniels, Owen HOU TE

6.1

70

Manning, Eli NYG QB

6.11

71

Green-Ellis, BenJarvus NEP RB

6.12

72

Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

 

Analysis: My roster’s looking a little risky with the players coming off some injuries, but most of them are in very stable situations, so that offsets a lot of their downside in this odd year. My team is bursting with upside potential, so I could not pass on another potential beast in Britt. No doubt he has issues, but he’s also capable of going absolutely nuts. The guy was a top-10 fantasy receiver in points per game in 2010. I expect Kerry Collins to return, so his situation should be somewhat stable, although it’s a new coaching staff. The 6th round is late enough to take on some of his risk.

 

Good Value: It must be really early, or too many situations must be up on the air because few picks are jumping out at me as values. Vernon Davis and DeAngelo Williams were decent ones here, though.

 

Bad Value: Marshawn Lynch got drafted this high because he basically has the starter role in Seattle right now, but that could change. Even if he’s the guy, I see no upside in taking him this high, and some downside. This was also a little too high for Mike Thomas, since it’s not a PPR league.

 

Round Seven

 

7.01

73

Torain, Ryan WAS RB

7.02

74

Knox, Johnny CHI WR

7.03

75

Green, A.J. CIN WR

7.04

76

Crabtree, Michael SFO WR

7.05

77

Manningham, Mario NYG WR

7.06

78

Graham, Jimmy NOS TE

7.07

79

Addai, Joseph IND RB

7.08

80

Starks, James GBP RB

7.09

81

Spiller, C.J. BUF RB

7.1

82

Miller, Zach OAK TE

7.11

83

Pettigrew, Brandon DET TE

7.12

84

Moss, Santana WAS WR

 

Analysis: This year, fantasy players are going to have to pick the right side of a RBBC, and if they do, they may find a nice value. That was my thought process with James Starks, who is obviously going to face competition in the Packer backfield. This is a little high for a guy who is no lock to get a healthy number of carries, but at the time of the draft there was actually a chance Ryan Grant could get released. Starks, of course, was great in the playoffs, and while unproven over the course of a whole season, they do like him a lot. But rookie Alex Green is a threat.

 

Good Value: I’m not a big Mike Crabtree guy, but that was a good value in this round. Mike Thomas went a round earlier for God’s sakes.

 

Bad Value: Nothing terrible, but we don’t know where Santana Moss will play this year, so this was a little high.

 

Round Eight

 

8.01

85

Cooley, Chris WAS TE

8.02

86

Jackson, Fred BUF RB

8.03

87

Grant, Ryan GBP RB

8.04

88

Smith, Steve NYG WR

8.05

89

Branch, Deion NEP WR

8.06

90

Smith, Steve CAR WR

8.07

91

Jones, Felix DAL RB

8.08

92

Nelson, Jordy GBP WR

8.09

93

Williams, Ryan ARI RB

8.1

94

Wells, Chris ARI RB

8.11

95

Winslow, Kellen TBB TE

8.12

96

Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE

 

Analysis: Most of my draft so far consists of upside-oriented players, so I actually liked getting a solid option in Deion Branch as my #3. It’s not a sexy pick, but I have enough of those already. Branch was a top-20 fantasy WR after joining the Patriots last year, and the Pats did not draft a single wideout of note. So there appears to be a good chance that he will have a very active role again, and he could possibly be the technical #1 WR. I could have taken Mike Williams (Sea), but I’m not sure about his QB situation. It could be bad, and Branch has Brady. I probably would take someone else if this draft were in the summer, but things are very unstable right now, yet Branch is pretty stable.

 

Good Value: While he’s been underwhelming and may continue to be with C.J. Spiller likely handling a larger role this year, this was a good round for Fred Jackson, who should get 15+ touches most weeks. Steve Smith (Car) might be a nice value if he leaves for another team, like the Chargers. Felix Jones was a decent value here because he’ll likely be the main guy again, but this could be a three-man committee, so it’s not a great value.

 

Bad Value: This is not a PPR league, so Chris Cooley’s nothing special at all for fantasy. He was basically ignored in the red zone last year. At this point, I’d take Ryan Williams over Beanie Wells based on Williams’ upside, so Wells was a bad value. It’s possible that he responds because of the Williams addition, but I’m not holding my breath.

 

Round Nine

 

9.01

97

Stafford, Matthew DET QB

9.02

98

Leshoure, Mikel DET RB

9.03

99

Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

9.04

100

Cutler, Jay CHI QB

9.05

101

Helu, Roy WAS RB

9.06

102

Freeman, Josh TBB QB

9.07

103

Bradford, Sam STL QB

9.08

104

Thomas, Pierre NOS RB

9.09

105

Tolbert, Mike SDC RB

9.1

106

Williams, Mike SEA WR

9.11

107

Floyd, Malcom SDC WR

9.12

108

Bush, Reggie NOS RB

 

Analysis: I was bathing my 5-year old twins when this pick came up, and I wasn’t ready, so I just grabbed Pierre Thomas as some protection for Mark Ingram. Not a bad pick, all things considered.

 

Good Value: Roy Helu could end up being a great value if things go down as we expect in Washington, but it’s a tad too early to proclaim this pick a slam dunk. I liked Mikel Leshoure here as well.

 

Bad Value: Nothing too poor, although it’s not a PPR and Reggie Bush’s status is way up in the air.

 

Round Ten

 

10.01

109

Driver, Donald GBP WR

10.02

110

Jones, Julio ATL WR

10.03

111

Bush, Michael OAK RB

10.04

112

Cassel, Matt KCC QB

10.05

113

Bess, Davone MIA WR

10.06

114

Owens, Terrell CIN WR

10.07

115

Decker, Eric DEN WR

10.08

116

Flacco, Joe BAL QB

10.09

117

Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE

10.1

118

Ford, Jacoby OAK WR

10.11

119

Simpson, Jerome CIN WR

10.12

120

Ochocinco, Chad CIN WR

 

Analysis: Ok, well, I was still bathing my kids and getting them ready for bed, so I didn’t actually make this pick. There’s nothing wrong with Davone Bess, at least, but this isn’t a PPR league. I probably would have taken Jacoby Ford for his upside, though. 

 

Good Value: Why is Eric Decker getting drafted in this round? He’s actually pretty talented, but he’s done nothing, and it’s a committee situation in Denver.

 

Bad Value: Tony Gonzalez was certainly worth a shot this late. And Joe Flacco was a decent value in the 10th round.

 

Round Eleven

 

11.01

121

Celek, Brent PHI TE

11.02

122

Scott, Bernard CIN RB

11.03

123

Clayton, Mark STL WR

11.04

124

Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def

11.05

125

Baldwin, Jon KCC WR

11.06

126

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE

11.07

127

Fitzpatrick, Ryan BUF QB

11.08

128

Alexander, Danario STL WR

11.09

129

Ward, Hines PIT WR

11.1

130

Edwards, Braylon NYJ WR

11.11

131

Choice, Tashard DAL RB

11.12

132

Moore, Lance NOS WR

 

Analysis: It’s about upside at this point, but anyone you take is going to have some issues. Alexander has a long injury history, and there’s a major logjam at WR. However, Danario Alexander is very talented and has all the tools to be a legit #1 WR, and the Rams do love him. He may end up being a tease, but he’s worth a shot this late because, while they added two wideouts in the draft, it’s unlikely either projects as a #1 guy as Alexander does.

 

Good Value: Nothing great (or particularly good).

 

Bad Value:Bernard Scott isn’t going to be a major factor unless the team has no other choice but to feature him. He’s talented, but he doesn’t project as anything more than a complementary player at this point. I like Tashard Choice, but the problem is the Cowboys don’t seem to, as evidenced by their drafting of DeMarco Murray, who I actually drafted. This could be a wasted pick. Taking a fantasy defense this early is a lost cause these days, so I didn’t like the Pittsburgh Steelers pick.

 

Round Twelve

 

12.01

133

Henne, Chad MIA QB

12.02

134

Tomlinson, LaDainian NYJ RB

12.03

135

Hardesty, Montario CLE RB

12.04

136

Keller, Dustin NYJ TE

12.05

137

Brown, Ronnie MIA RB

12.06

138

McGahee, Willis BAL RB

12.07

139

Carter, Delone IND RB

12.08

140

Jets, New York NYJ Def

12.09

141

Moss, Randy TEN WR

12.1

142

Kolb, Kevin PHI QB

12.11

143

Dixon, Anthony SFO RB

12.12

144

Meachem, Robert NOS WR

 

Analysis: I’m not in love with this pick, but Ronnie Brown in the 12th round can’t be a terrible pick. He did play all 16 games last year, and I’m sure he’ll find a way to carve a niche somewhere this year.

 

Good Value: Believe it or not, Randy Moss was probably the best value of this round, and he doesn’t even have a team.

 

Bad Value: I felt a lot of picks in this round were reaches, such as Chad Henne, Willis McGahee, and Anthony Dixon. Henne’s coming off a bad year, and the other two may not have much of a role this year.

 

Round Thirteen

 

13.01

145

Jones, James GBP WR

13.02

146

Hernandez, Aaron NEP TE

13.03

147

Jones, Thomas KCC RB

13.04

148

Gerhart, Toby MIN RB

13.05

149

Moeaki, Tony KCC TE

13.06

150

Evans, Lee BUF WR

13.07

151

Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR

13.08

152

Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE

13.09

153

Murphy, Louis OAK WR

13.1

154

Olsen, Greg CHI TE

13.11

155

Tebow, Tim DEN QB

13.12

156

Shiancoe, Visanthe MIN TE

 

Analysis: My TE is Antonio Gates, and he’s coming off a season in which he had some problematic injuries, so I needed a backup with some upside. Jermaine Gresham looks like a really nice player, and he could actually be a fantasy stud with the new coaching staff. The team did a poor job using him last year, yet he still put up 52 catches. He could be huge key to this new offense in 2011.

 

Good Value: Thomas Jones was actually a decent value, although he’s older than dirt for a RB these days (33).

 

Bad Value: I see no reason to take Toby Gerhart this early. I bet the Vikings grab a back in free agency, since Gerhart is mediocre.

 

Round Fourteen

 

14.01

157

Woodhead, Danny NEP RB

14.02

158

Cook, Jared TEN TE

14.03

159

Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB

14.04

160

Benn, Arrelious TBB WR

14.05

161

Murray, DeMarco DAL RB

14.06

162

Smith, Torrey BAL WR

14.07

163

Jennings, Rashad JAC RB

14.08

164

Hankerson, Leonard WAS WR

14.09

165

Little, Greg CLE WR

14.1

166

Watson, Ben CLE TE

14.11

167

Garrard, David JAC QB

14.12

168

Bears, Chicago CHI Def

 

Analysis: I’ve been playing catch-up at RB for most of this draft, which is why I took DeMarco Murray. I don’t believe it, but many Cowboy beat writers think Murray may challenge for the lead role. It’s certainly possible so worth a shot this late.

 

Good Value: Although he’s just a rookie, Cleveland’s Greg Little was a nice pick in this round. He should start from Day One, and he does have upside potential. Ben Watson is a solid pick here, for sure, since he’s a key weapon in their offense.

 

Bad Value: I would have skipped Arrelious Benn here, since we’re not sure how he’s doing as he recovers from ACL surgery. I see no reason to take David Garrard, who could be benched if they’re out of the playoff race this year. And the Chicago Bear defense was a bad pick. No reason to take them this early. Their best chance is their return game, which gets hurt by the new kickoff rules.

 

Round Fifteen

 

15.01

169

Patriots, New England NEP Def

15.02

170

Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def

15.03

171

Newton, Cam CAR QB

15.04

172

McNabb, Donovan WAS QB

15.05

173

Green, Alex GBP RB

15.06

174

Packers, Green Bay GBP Def

15.07

175

Miller, Heath PIT TE

15.08

176

Breaston, Steve ARI WR

15.09

177

Chargers, San Diego SDC Def

15.1

178

Tate, Brandon NEP WR

15.11

179

McCoy, Colt CLE QB

15.12

180

Giants, New York NYG Def

 

Analysis: I like Steve Breaston, and he was a solid option for WR depth this late. He could leave via free agency, or he could be restricted, which would put him in a good spot in Arizona, assuming they acquire Kevin Kolb as I expect.

 

Good Value: Alex Green may go down as a steal, if only for 3-4 weeks this year. But sometimes, that’s all it takes.

 

Bad Value: It’s still a little too early for a fantasy defense, and Brandon Tate hasn’t proven anything just yet, so he was a bit of a reach. Taking Donovan McNabb at this point doesn’t seem wise, as his options appear to be running out and down to only 1-2 potential starting jobs.

 

Round Sixteen

 

16.01

181

Mason, Derrick BAL WR

16.02

182

Brown, Donald IND RB

16.03

183

Lions, Detroit DET Def

16.04

184

Snelling, Jason ATL RB

16.05

185

Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def

16.06

186

Vereen, Shane NEP RB

16.07

187

Young, Titus DET WR

16.08

188

Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE

16.09

189

Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB

16.1

190

Gettis, David CAR WR

16.11

191

Burleson, Nate DET WR

16.12

192

Barber, Marion DAL RB

 

Analysis: I had to get involved on the defense run, and the Philadelphia Eagle defense is consistently in the top-10, although they have little upside.

 

Good Value: Veteran Derrick Mason was a value and Donald Brown isn’t a terrible flyer at all at this point.

Bad Value: I like the fit for Titus Young in Detroit, but unless he shocks, I don’t think he’ll have much value this year as the 4th option in the passing game, at best.

 

Round Seventeen

17.01

193

Tate, Golden SEA WR

17.02

194

Ringer, Javon TEN RB

17.03

195

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def

17.04

196

Palmer, Carson CIN QB

17.05

197

Schilens, Chaz OAK WR

17.06

198

Bucs, Tampa Bay TBB Def

17.07

199

49ers, San Francisco SFO Def

17.08

200

Sims-Walker, Mike JAC WR

17.09

201

Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def

17.1

202

Shipley, Jordan CIN WR

17.11

203

Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def

17.12

204

Saints, New Orleans NOS Def

 

Analysis: Mike Sims Walker’s still a young guy, and while not a stud, he is talented, so he should latch on somewhere and have a chance.

 

Good Value: Nothing at all.

 

Bad Value: Javon Ringer may not even be the handcuff this year, and, in fact, at this early stage, I’d give the edge to Jamie Harper. I wouldn’t bother with Chaz Schilens at this point.

 

Round Eighteen

 

18.01

205

Hartley, Garrett NOS PK

18.02

206

Crosby, Mason GBP PK