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2013 Catch Rate & Yards Per Target Analysis: WRs

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by Joe Dolan, Managing Editor

Published, 4/1/14 

This is an article we’ve published for a few years now, and it often serves as a basis for our late spring/summer analysis that will shape our receiver rankings for the upcoming fantasy football season. Why’s that? While we never want to take just one or two stats and base a ranking on that, we do want our receivers, tight ends, and PPR running backs to be both consistent and efficient. We feel that catch rate and yards per target analysis is a very good place to start on that.
 
In 2013, NFL QBs continued to be more accurate and efficient. Overall, NFL receivers caught 63.0% of the passes thrown their way, a half a percentage point increase over 2012 and about a percentage and a half over 2011. And we have some good news in the other department as well – after a fall to 7.28 YPT in 2012, down from 7.39 in 2011, NFL receivers gained about 7.33 yards per pass thrown their way in 2013, meaning an increase in completion percentage didn’t necessarily mean that teams were taking shorter gains in general, the way they did in 2012.
 
Obviously, as with any stat or scouting report, this is only one way to look at a receiver, and it should not be taken as gospel one way or the other. The system a receiver plays in, the quarterback he plays with, and his role in the offense are all going to affect his overall numbers.
 
But being the first to notice an emerging stud at any of these positions, or to pass up a guy who could fall off a cliff, could be keys for success in 2014. What we’re doing here is trying to notice trends, red flags, or signals for potential breakout players. We’re also going to try to explain what might have gone well or wrong for a player in targets. It’s up to you to decide how to look at the data, but there are a lot of interesting tidbits one can find.
 
You’ll notice we have each player broken down by multiple categories, including the standard catches, targets, yards, TDs, etc. But we’ve also included “first-half catch rate” (meaning his first eight games) and “second half-catch rate” (meaning his final eight games), and we’ve broken that down even further into “quarters” of the season if you prefer to download our master file in excel, so we can see which players were the most or least consistent. We’ve done the same with the “yards-per-target” stat.
 
After presenting the charts, we’ll look at some players whose performances were noteworthy – either good or bad. Obviously, there is much more you could glean from these charts, but we looked at some players in each category whom we thought were particularly interesting.
 
Wide Receivers Catch Rate
 
The chart below details each of the NFL WRs who saw at least 40 targets in 2013, sorted by total targets. In 2013, NFL WRs caught 6177 of the 10,540 targets thrown their way, meaning a league average of 58.6% catch rate for WRs, up from 58.5% in 2012. “58.6%” will be the benchmark in this article when “league-average” is discussed.
 
Note: You can also download our download our master file in excel to see all categories and positions in one file.
 

Rank
Player
Team
Rec
Avg.
Tgt
RZT
GLT
2013 Season
 
1st Half
2nd Half
1
Pierre Garcon
WAS
113
11.9
181
19
4
0.624
 
0.603
0.641
2
Andre Johnson
HOU
109
12.9
179
18
3
0.609
 
0.686
0.560
3
A.J. Green
CIN
98
14.6
177
22
5
0.554
 
0.548
0.559
4
Antonio Brown
PIT
110
13.6
165
23
1
0.667
 
0.767
0.587
5
Brandon Marshall
CHI
100
13
160
22
9
0.625
 
0.708
0.568
6
Josh Gordon
CLE
87
18.9
158
18
8
0.551
 
0.542
0.556
7
Dez Bryant
DAL
93
13.4
157
21
11
0.592
 
0.600
0.585
8
Vincent Jackson
TB
78
15.7
156
19
4
0.500
 
0.471
0.536
9
Calvin Johnson
DET
84
17.7
155
26
8
0.542
 
0.595
0.487
10
Julian Edelman
NE
105
10.1
149
24
3
0.705
 
0.706
0.704
11
Alshon Jeffery
CHI
89
16
148
19
3
0.601
 
0.579
0.615
12
Demaryius Thomas
DEN
92
15.5
141
20
6
0.652
 
0.696
0.611
13
T.Y. Hilton
IND
83
13.1
138
15
1
0.601
 
0.509
0.663
14
Kendall Wright
TEN
94
11.5
138
10
1
0.681
 
0.690
0.675
15
Mike Wallace
MIA
73
12.7
136
11
2
0.537
 
0.492
0.573
16
Eric Decker
DEN
87
14.8
135
25
9
0.644
 
0.657
0.631
17
Torrey Smith
BAL
65
17.4
135
16
1
0.481
 
0.517
0.453
18
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
82
11.6
134
24
5
0.612
 
0.571
0.648
19
Brian Hartline
MIA
76
13.4
133
11
1
0.571
 
0.625
0.532
20
Anquan Boldin
SF
85
13.9
128
15
1
0.664
 
0.613
0.712
21
Harry Douglas
ATL
85
12.6
128
14
4
0.664
 
0.686
0.649
22
Jordy Nelson
GB
85
15.5
126
23
6
0.675
 
0.722
0.639
23
DeSean Jackson
PHI
82
16.2
125
11
1
0.656
 
0.616
0.712
24
Victor Cruz
NYG
73
13.7
122
12
1
0.598
 
0.610
0.578
25
Cecil Shorts
JAC
66
11.8
120
16
6
0.550
 
0.548
0.556
26
Wes Welker
DEN
73
10.7
111
24
10
0.658
 
0.694
0.590
27
Marques Colston
NO
75
12.6
111
16
3
0.676
 
0.675
0.676
28
Emmanuel Sanders
PIT
67
10.9
111
16
4
0.604
 
0.554
0.655
29
Michael Floyd
ARI
66
16
108
14
2
0.611
 
0.648
0.574
30
Steve Smith
CAR
64
11.6
106
16
4
0.604
 
0.582
0.627
31
Greg Jennings
MIN
68
11.8
105
12
1
0.648
 
0.543
0.729
32
Keenan Allen
SD
71
14.7
104
21
6
0.683
 
0.703
0.672
33
Nate Washington
TEN
58
15.8
101
5
1
0.574
 
0.520
0.627
34
Dwayne Bowe
KC
57
11.8
101
14
3
0.564
 
0.591
0.544
35
Stevie Johnson
BUF
52
11.5
100
12
4
0.520
 
0.541
0.487
36
Jerome Simpson
MIN
48
15.1
100
8
1
0.480
 
0.529
0.429
37
Golden Tate
SEA
64
14
98
8
1
0.653
 
0.604
0.711
38
Hakeem Nicks
NYG
56
16
98
10
0
0.571
 
0.515
0.688
39
Greg Little
CLE
41
11.3
98
12
4
0.418
 
0.389
0.455
40
Rod Streater
OAK
60
14.8
97
10
1
0.619
 
0.697
0.578
41
Roddy White
ATL
63
11.3
96
12
0
0.656
 
0.636
0.662
42
James Jones
GB
59
13.8
92
14
2
0.641
 
0.690
0.619
43
DeAndre Hopkins
HOU
52
15.4
91
11
5
0.571
 
0.667
0.490
44
Davone Bess
CLE
42
8.6
86
8
2
0.488
 
0.500
0.467
45
Ace Sanders
JAC
51
9.5
85
11
3
0.600
 
0.516
0.648
46
Robert Woods
BUF
40
14.7
84
8
1
0.476
 
0.431
0.545
47
Riley Cooper
PHI
47
17.8
83
11
4
0.566
 
0.541
0.587
48
Danny Amendola
NE
54
11.7
83
6
2
0.651
 
0.576
0.700
49
Kris Durham
DET
38
12.9
83
13
1
0.458
 
0.543
0.351
50
Chris Givens
STL
34
16.7
83
12
2
0.410
 
0.489
0.316
51
Denarius Moore
OAK
46
15.1
82
10
6
0.561
 
0.587
0.528
52
Marlon Brown
BAL
49
10.7
82
14
2
0.598
 
0.618
0.583
53
Jarrett Boykin
GB
49
13.9
82
15
4
0.598
 
0.636
0.583
54
Dexter McCluster
KC
53
9.7
82
11
1
0.646
 
0.575
0.714
55
Marvin Jones
CIN
51
14
79
14
1
0.646
 
0.706
0.600
56
Brandon LaFell
CAR
49
12.8
79
8
1
0.620
 
0.636
0.609
57
Santana Moss
WAS
42
10.8
79
7
2
0.532
 
0.528
0.535
58
Cordarrelle Patterson
MIN
45
10.4
77
12
3
0.584
 
0.650
0.561
59
Rueben Randle
NYG
41
14.9
77
5
1
0.532
 
0.523
0.545
60
Mohamed Sanu
CIN
47
9.7
77
11
1
0.610
 
0.676
0.550
61
Jerricho Cotchery
PIT
46
13.2
76
22
4
0.605
 
0.647
0.571
62
Andre Roberts
ARI
43
11
76
6
2
0.566
 
0.526
0.605
63
Terrance Williams
DAL
44
16.7
74
11
2
0.595
 
0.684
0.500
64
Jason Avant
PHI
38
11.8
74
11
0
0.514
 
0.510
0.520
65
Doug Baldwin
SEA
50
15.6
72
8
2
0.694
 
0.767
0.643
66
Jeremy Kerley
NYJ
43
12.2
72
8
1
0.597
 
0.659
0.516
67
Aaron Dobson
NE
37
14
71
9
3
0.521
 
0.542
0.478
68
Donnie Avery
KC
40
14.9
70
5
1
0.571
 
0.558
0.593
69
Tavon Austin
STL
40
10.5
69
10
2
0.580
 
0.633
0.450
70
Kenbrell Thompkins
NE
32
14.6
68
10
5
0.471
 
0.426
0.643
71
Eddie Royal
SD
47
13.4
67
14
2
0.701
 
0.710
0.694
72
Ted Ginn
CAR
36
15.4
67
6
2
0.537
 
0.690
0.421
73
Vincent Brown
SD
42
11.2
67
8
2
0.627
 
0.711
0.517
74
Rishard Matthews
MIA
41
10.9
66
5
1
0.621
 
0.667
0.611
75
Darrius Heyward-Bey
IND
29
10.7
64
10
0
0.453
 
0.514
0.379
76
Jacoby Jones
BAL
37
12.3
62
6
0
0.597
 
0.643
0.583
77
Austin Pettis
STL
38
10.5
62
9
3
0.613
 
0.614
0.611
78
David Nelson
NYJ
36
11.8
59
13
1
0.610
 
0.682
0.568
79
Santonio Holmes
NYJ
23
19.8
59
5
1
0.390
 
0.417
0.371
80
Julio Jones
ATL
41
14.1
58
9
4
0.707
 
0.707
0.000
81
Reggie Wayne
IND
39
13
58
7
3
0.672
 
0.672
0.000
82
Stephen Hill
NYJ
24
14.3
57
6
2
0.421
 
0.511
0.083
83
Nate Burleson
DET
39
11.8
55
5
1
0.709
 
0.826
0.625
84
Mike Brown
JAC
32
13.9
55
9
1
0.582
 
0.591
0.576
85
Lance Moore
NO
37
12.4
54
6
0
0.685
 
0.467
0.769
86
Cole Beasley
DAL
39
9.4
54
7
1
0.722
 
0.826
0.645
87
Andre Holmes
OAK
25
17.2
52
6
2
0.481
 
0.000
0.500
88
Leonard Hankerson
WAS
30
12.5
50
7
0
0.600
 
0.500
0.917
89
Kenny Stills
NO
32
20
50
2
1
0.640
 
0.565
0.704
90
T.J. Graham
BUF
23
15.7
50
4
2
0.460
 
0.483
0.429
91
Miles Austin
DAL
24
10.2
49
1
0
0.490
 
0.536
0.429
92
Justin Blackmon
JAC
29
14.3
48
10
4
0.604
 
0.604
0.000
93
Randall Cobb
GB
31
14
46
10
3
0.674
 
0.659
1.000
94
Tiquan Underwood
TB
24
18.3
46
5
1
0.522
 
0.444
0.541
95
Aldrick Robinson
WAS
18
20.3
46
2
0
0.391
 
0.300
0.417
96
Jerrel Jernigan
NYG
29
11.3
45
3
0
0.644
 
0.667
0.639
97
Kevin Ogletree
TB
21
12.8
45
4
1
0.467
 
0.481
0.444
98
Brandon Gibson
MIA
30
10.9
43
7
2
0.698
 
0.698
0.000
99
Earl Bennett
CHI
32
7.6
43
7
2
0.744
 
0.579
0.875
100
Jarius Wright
MIN
26
16.7
43
3
0
0.605
 
0.500
0.667
101
Darius Johnson
ATL
22
9.5
42
6
1
0.524
 
0.545
0.516
102
Mike Williams
TB
22
9.8
40
7
1
0.550
 
0.550
0.000
103
Keshawn Martin
HOU
22
11.5
40
5
1
0.550
 
0.571
0.538

Wide Receivers Yards Per Target
 
The chart below details each of the NFL WRs who saw at least 40 targets in 2013, sorted by total targets. In 2013, NFL WRs gained 82,161 yards on 10,540 targets, of which they caught 6177 passes. They averaged 13.3 yards per reception and 7.80 yards per target in 2013, the latter of which was a match from 2012. “7.80 YPT” will be the benchmark in this article when “league-average” is discussed.

Rank
Player
Team
Rec
Avg.
Tgt
RZT
GLT
2013 Season
 
1st Half
2nd Half
1
Pierre Garcon
WAS
113
11.9
181
19
4
7.44
 
6.56
8.10
2
Andre Johnson
HOU
109
12.9
179
18
3
7.86
 
8.34
7.55
3
A.J. Green
CIN
98
14.6
177
22
5
8.06
 
8.74
7.44
4
Antonio Brown
PIT
110
13.6
165
23
1
9.08
 
8.63
9.43
5
Brandon Marshall
CHI
100
13
160
22
9
8.09
 
8.31
7.95
6
Josh Gordon
CLE
87
18.9
158
18
8
10.42
 
9.86
10.75
7
Dez Bryant
DAL
93
13.4
157
21
11
7.96
 
8.55
7.41
8
Vincent Jackson
TB
78
15.7
156
19
4
7.85
 
7.16
8.71
9
Calvin Johnson
DET
84
17.7
155
26
8
9.61
 
10.39
8.79
10
Julian Edelman
NE
105
10.1
149
24
3
7.09
 
6.79
7.33
11
Alshon Jeffery
CHI
89
16
148
19
3
9.60
 
9.84
9.45
12
Demaryius Thomas
DEN
92
15.5
141
20
6
10.14
 
9.93
10.35
13
T.Y. Hilton
IND
83
13.1
138
15
1
7.87
 
7.55
8.08
14
Kendall Wright
TEN
94
11.5
138
10
1
7.82
 
7.47
8.08
15
Mike Wallace
MIA
73
12.7
136
11
2
6.84
 
6.52
7.09
16
Eric Decker
DEN
87
14.8
135
25
9
9.54
 
9.56
9.52
17
Torrey Smith
BAL
65
17.4
135
16
1
8.36
 
10.48
6.65
18
Larry Fitzgerald
ARI
82
11.6
134
24
5
7.12
 
7.46
6.82
19
Brian Hartline
MIA
76
13.4
133
11
1
7.64
 
7.82
7.51
20
Anquan Boldin
SF
85
13.9
128
15
1
9.21
 
8.89
9.52
21
Harry Douglas
ATL
85
12.6
128
14
4
8.34
 
9.59
7.51
22
Jordy Nelson
GB
85
15.5
126
23
6
10.43
 
12.02
9.24
23
DeSean Jackson
PHI
82
16.2
125
11
1
10.66
 
9.22
12.67
24
Victor Cruz
NYG
73
13.7
122
12
1
8.18
 
8.79
7.13
25
Cecil Shorts
JAC
66
11.8
120
16
6
6.48
 
6.73
5.89
26
Wes Welker
DEN
73
10.7
111
24
10
7.01
 
7.71
5.72
27
Marques Colston
NO
75
12.6
111
16
3
8.50
 
8.55
8.46
28
Emmanuel Sanders
PIT
67
10.9
111
16
4
6.59
 
7.07
6.11
29
Michael Floyd
ARI
66
16
108
14
2
9.76
 
8.26
11.26
30
Steve Smith
CAR
64
11.6
106
16
4
7.03
 
6.09
8.04
31
Greg Jennings
MIN
68
11.8
105
12
1
7.66
 
7.30
7.93
32
Keenan Allen
SD
71
14.7
104
21
6
10.06
 
10.78
9.66
33
Nate Washington
TEN
58
15.8
101
5
1
9.10
 
8.78
9.41
34
Dwayne Bowe
KC
57
11.8
101
14
3
6.65
 
6.86
6.49
35
Stevie Johnson
BUF
52
11.5
100
12
4
5.97
 
6.34
5.38
36
Jerome Simpson
MIN
48
15.1
100
8
1
7.26
 
8.27
6.20
37
Golden Tate
SEA
64
14
98
8
1
9.16
 
8.28
10.20
38
Hakeem Nicks
NYG
56
16
98
10
0
9.14
 
7.89
11.72
39
Greg Little
CLE
41
11.3
98
12
4
4.74
 
4.04
5.61
40
Rod Streater
OAK
60
14.8
97
10
1
9.15
 
9.67
8.89
41
Roddy White
ATL
63
11.3
96
12
0
7.41
 
5.86
7.86
42
James Jones
GB
59
13.8
92
14
2
8.88
 
12.03
7.43
43
DeAndre Hopkins
HOU
52
15.4
91
11
5
8.81
 
9.90
7.88
44
Davone Bess
CLE
42
8.6
86
8
2
4.21
 
4.66
3.37
45
Ace Sanders
JAC
51
9.5
85
11
3
5.69
 
5.87
5.59
46
Robert Woods
BUF
40
14.7
84
8
1
6.99
 
5.98
8.55
47
Riley Cooper
PHI
47
17.8
83
11
4
10.06
 
8.49
11.33
48
Danny Amendola
NE
54
11.7
83
6
2
7.63
 
5.27
9.18
49
Kris Durham
DET
38
12.9
83
13
1
5.90
 
6.74
4.86
50
Chris Givens
STL
34
16.7
83
12
2
6.86
 
7.87
5.66
51
Denarius Moore
OAK
46
15.1
82
10
6
8.48
 
9.37
7.33
52
Marlon Brown
BAL
49
10.7
82
14
2
6.39
 
7.15
5.85
53
Jarrett Boykin
GB
49
13.9
82
15
4
8.30
 
10.68
7.43
54
Dexter McCluster
KC
53
9.7
82
11
1
6.24
 
6.33
6.17
55
Marvin Jones
CIN
51
14
79
14
1
9.01
 
10.85
7.62
56
Brandon LaFell
CAR
49
12.8
79
8
1
7.94
 
8.42
7.59
57
Santana Moss
WAS
42
10.8
79
7
2
5.72
 
6.50
5.07
58
Cordarrelle Patterson
MIN
45
10.4
77
12
3
6.09
 
6.65
5.89
59
Rueben Randle
NY