2013 Auction Guru Tool

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We’ve rolled out this week a new excel-based tool that we believe will be of great interest to Auction Players: the 2013 Auction Guru.
Since we figured most auction players are pretty advanced in general, and since creating a truly useful tool for Auctions is a complicated endeavor, this new tool is very robust.
Note: If you're already a subscriber, the Auction Guru tool is listed and linked to in the Auction content tab and also in the "Downloads/Site Tools" area on the bottom of the Subscriber Homepage.

Here’s the Cliffs Notes version of what the tool is all about:
  • Before your draft, you will enter all the basic info for your league (scoring system, number of players in your league, number of players at each position, etc.) and the salary cap for your auction league.
  • Input league keepers and values prior to your draft.
  • At the start of the draft, the tool will have an estimated “highest bid” for each player. In addition to using our projections as the baseline for dollar values, we’ll actually be incorporating Mike Horn’s 2013 Price Tiers for the various positions into this tool, so it has 2013-specific auction intelligience built into the tool.
  • Follow along with your auction as projected values are updated in real time and as people get drafted, you enter the bid amount and the team they went to.
  • The tool then does real-time update values for players (based on our projections), adjusting for factors like: owners over or under-bidding for players (adjusts value of other guys left), whether people have filled their slots for starters and likely reserves, and other key stuff. It will essentially give you updated “best bids” based on how the draft has gone so far.
  • Identify potential bargains and overvalues at every position.
  • Identify which owners are more likely to make bids on certain positions, and owners who aren’t.
  • Identify which positions are enticing higher bids, thereby bringing down the values of other positions.
  • Implement your auction strategy in conjunction with the auction draft plan.
The Auction Guru tool has a detailed instructions and FAQ page built into the file, but here are more specifics.
The tool has five pages, of which three are for "regular" users and two for "power" users:
  1. The first page is the "pre-draft setup" page, where you put in all the scoring rules, size of league, salary cap, and everything else. It basically looks a lot like the "Scoring System" page from our other tools. The key is for people to set this page before their draft and then forget it on draft day.
  1. The second page is an "advanced setup" page that most people wouldn't need to touch. It would be where you'd set number of players in each "tier" and top prices for that tier. We believe the vast majority of people can ignore it.  So newbies get it nicely tuned for a "normal" league and pro users who know where prices usually go for their league can mess around with it more.
  1. The third page is where bids are put in and who got each player. It has a column for the expected bid amount at start of auction and a readjusted expected bid amount once auction gets going in real time. It primarily changes when players get overbid, in which case there's less money left over (or if they get underbid, in which case there's more $$$ left for other players).
  1. The fourth page is the main part of the tool that'll help people see what's going on in their auction. It's a "real-time summary" page that shows stuff like: How many players each team has drafted at each position, if owners are still looking for starters at positions, what owners have spent so far and have left, whether owners have overspent or underspent the "proper" prices for players, how much over or under "proper" prices various positions have gone for. (So you can see easily that, say, the first few RBs have been overbid and you can expect prices to be lower elsewhere because of it).
  1. Finally, the fifth page will list all players on each team including how much they were bid for and how much over or under "true" value they went for. Unlikely to really be needed during the draft, but power users might want more detail on their opponent's team makeup.
The nice thing about this structure is that is has only three pages for "regular" users: the "pre-auction setup" page, the "enter bids" page and the "real-time summary" page. For power users there are two more pages - the "advanced setup" page and the "every player on every team listed" page. So it should hopefully make a broad range of people happy.
This tool is free with your subscription, so subscribe now to access!


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