Published, 2/25/11
While the events of this week brought with them some optimism, with the NFLPA and NFL owners wrapping up seven consecutive days of mediation, the NFL world is still bracing for a lockout. We’re hoping it doesn’t come to that, and at this point, the best we can probably hope for is an extension of the CBA deadline of March 4th.
However, if you ask any NFL executive, they’ll tell you that it’s business as usual, at least for now. Everyone is convened at the NFL Combine in
It happens to be a very good class, so let’s take a look.
Note: There is still a lot of uncertainty with this year’s free agency, as the current CBA negotiations are still ongoing. For our purposes here, we are assuming the previous rules (previous to 2010) apply. Those rules dictated that a player in the final year of his contract with four or more years in the league can be an unrestricted free agent. In 2010, a minimum of five years was actually needed. So far in 2011, several teams have franchised some key skill players, yet it’s still uncertain whether or not those franchise tags will actually mean anything, pending the new CBA. There are almost no certainties right now as it relates to free agency, but for now we think it’s best to assume the old rules previous to 2010 will apply, since they did apply for several years previously.
Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning (Ind, UFA) – While it’s crazy to think of Manning in anything other than the royal blue and white, he and the Colts were unable to come to a contract agreement during the 2010 season, so Manning is technically a free agent heading into 2010. Of course, Indy took no chances, and they franchised him the week of 2/14. Colt management has pointed to the uncertainty of the CBA as a reason for the two sides being unable to come to terms on a new deal, so basically he’s not going anywhere. Manning this past season didn’t get much help from Indy’s running game and dealt with a plethora of injuries in his receiving corps, yet he still managed to throw for 4700 yards and 33 TDs. He did have 17 INTs, and the team exited the playoffs after a loss to the Jets in the Wild Card round, but Manning yet again proved he’s one of the most valuable players not only in the league currently, but of all time. It’s a certainty that Manning will be a Colt in 2011 (and beyond), but how they get to that point is still unknown.
Michael Vick (Phi,
Matt Hasselbeck (Sea, UFA) – Even though the Seahawks traded a 2nd-round pick to the Chargers for the younger Charlie Whitehurst before the 2010 began, it was Hasselbeck who started in 14 games and helped the Seahawks return to the playoffs and upset the World Champion Saints in the Wild Card round. Hasselbeck threw for 2998 yards, 12 TDs, and 17 INT with only one consistent weapon in WR Michael Williams. Before the season, it looked like Hasselbeck would be playing in his final season with the Seahawks, but shortly after their playoff loss to the Bears, HC Pete Carroll tipped his hand by saying it was a priority to get Hasselbeck signed for next season. Hasselbeck will turn 36 early in the 2011 season and has seen his play deteriorate in the last few years, but he still looks like a better option than Whitehurst, so it will be interesting to see what direction the team goes in considering Hasselbeck’s free agency status. If he’s willing to sign a relatively inexpensive two-year deal, we’re sure Seattle would love to keep him around for just a little while longer – as long as more appealing veteran option doesn’t fall from the sky for them.
Alex Smith (QB, UFA) – The Niners gave Smith another chance in 2009 when he restructured his contract and took a pay cut to remain with the team. Over those last two seasons, he hasn’t exactly proved to be worth that chance, as he’s battled Shaun Hill and Troy Smith for playing time and hasn’t showed much consistency. Smith doesn’t seem to process information quickly, and that and his lack of arm strength coupled with the team’s ever-changing offensive philosophy has made his time in San Francisco very forgettable, especially considering he was selected #1 overall in the 2005 Draft (ahead, of course, of Aaron Rodgers). While new HC Jim Harbaugh has said he likes Smith’s skills and believes he can work with him, we’re not sure Smith has what it takes to be a long-term answer at the QB position. In fact, we’re pretty sure he doesn’t. He’s not a stiff, at least, and he can play at a high level for a few games at a time, but ultimately his limitations always come to the surface. There is a chance he returns as a short-term answer, if the he and the team can’t find alternatives, but we fully expect the Niners to bring in someone better if the opportunity presents itself. And we’re told does not view Smith as an acceptable QB of the future.
Kerry Collins (Ten, UFA) – When you’re the backup to Vince Young, there’s a good chance you’re going to play significant snaps, and that’s exactly what happened with Collins in 2010. Between injury issues and a blowup with former HC Jeff Fisher, Young was limited to just eight games, which meant Collins had to step up to right the ship – again. In ten games (seven starts), he threw for 1823 yards, 14 TD, and 8 INTs. Collins played out the back half of a two-year deal with the Titans, and despite just turning 38, he could be in the mix for a starting job with multiple teams, including Tennessee, although they may look to go in a different direction with a brand new coaching staff. Collins has limited mobility and is prone to get into slumps because he continues to throw too many passes while off-balance. But generally speaking, he can still throw it with the best of them. We wouldn’t expect him to land in a situation that makes him the starter beyond the 2011 season, but there is a pretty good chance he’ll have to be on the radar this coming season.
Rex Grossman (Was, UFA) – The former Super Bowl QB has quickly fallen from grace after taking the Bears to the big game in the 2006 season, but as he showed in 2010, he at least still has a pulse. He landed a back-up job with the Texans in 2009, but he appeared in just one game and was signed by the Redskins to backup Donovan McNabb in 2010. No one expected Grossman to see the field, barring a McNabb injury, but he was called into action in Week Eight to run the two-minute drill because of McNabb’s lack of “cardiovascular endurance.” That was our first hint of a QB controversy, and it became full blown when Grossman was named the starter for the final three games of the season. In his four appearances, Grossman was 74/133 for 884 yards, 7 TDs, and 4 INT. He still showed the tendency to be a gunslinger, but he continued to be the mistake-prone player we’ve seen throughout his career. He’s not the answer long-term, but he could be a good option for the team for 1-2 more years. He knows the offense from his time in
Marc Bulger (Bal, UFA) – With Bulger unable to find a job elsewhere, he signed a one-year deal worth $3.8 million last June to backup Joe Flacco. However, if you thought you saw the last of the soon-to-be 34-year old starting in the NFL, think again. Bulger didn’t appear in any games in his only season with the Ravens, and the time off the field probably helped Bulger, who was abused behind a shaky Ram OL in his last few years with the team. He looked shell-shocked in his last two seasons starting for the Rams, frequently showcasing an inclination to get the ball out of his hands, no matter what, in the face of the pass rush. At his best, Bulger is a precision QB who throws the ball with great accuracy, timing, and anticipation. At 34, he might have a good season or two left in him, so he’s expected to get a lot of interest when free agency kicks off (whenever that is). Bulger’s name has been thrown around in connection with
Seneca Wallace (Cle, UFA) – Cleveland’s team president Mike Holmgren brought in Wallace before the 2010 season because of his familiarity with the offense from their time together in Seattle. Wallace opened the season as the backup to Jake Delhomme, but he ended up starting four times and appearing in eight games, throwing for 694 yards, 4 TDs, and 2 INTs. It’s obvious the Browns will go with Colt McCoy as their starter in 2011 and have decided to hold on to Delhomme for now, so we can’t see Wallace returning to be the third-stringer. However, there’s a chance the team may demand Delhomme take a pay cut, and if he doesn’t, Delhomme could be gone, giving Wallace a chance to stick in
Bruce Gradkowski (Oak, UFA) – When the Raiders traded for Jason Campbell on draft day 2010, it looked like Gradkowski would be relegated to the back-up role, despite rescuing the team from the nightmare that was JaMarcus Russell during the 2009 campaign. But in a somewhat surprising turn of events, Campbell was pulled in Week Two in favor of Gradkowski, who would go on to start the next three games. He performed admirably as he usually does, showing moxie and some athletic ability. But his physical limitations as a passer were once again on display, and injury issues limited him to just six games and ended his season after Week Twelve. With
Matt Moore (Car,
Tarvaris Jackson (Min,
Billy Volek (SD, UFA) – Since 2006, Volek has been the primary backup to Philip Rivers and has appeared in only 12 games since being with the team, none of those being starts. In fact, his last start came as a member of the Titans in Week Seven of the 2005. Volek’s last contract was a three-year deal with the Chargers he signed in 2008, but he’s now been in the league for 11 years and will be 35 when the 2011 season begins, so we wouldn’t expect the team to give him anything more than a two-year deal. A possibly landing spot for Volek could be in
Tyler Thigpen (Mia,
Chad Pennington (Mia, UFA) – Pennington was re-signed by the Dolphins last March after undergoing his third shoulder surgery due to a torn capsule suffered early in the 2009 season. With Chad Henne starting, Pennington served as a backup for the first half of the 2010 season, but was named the starter for Week Ten due to Henne’s constant struggles throughout the season. Unfortunately, Pennington suffered another shoulder injury that ended his season in that game. He has announced his plans to make yet another comeback in 2011, so he’s going to command some interest as a backup. Pennington’s arm strength may be very limited, but he’s still very accurate and has been praised as a coach on the field by his teammates. With a variety of teams needing a veteran to bridge the gap to their young prospects, Pennington could be an option as long as he’s healthy. Most likely, he won’t be considered as anything better than a #2, and he could stay on the market for a while because he’s still facing a tough rehab that will carry well into the summer after his fourth shoulder surgery.
Caleb Hanie (QB, RFA) – Hanie has spent the last three seasons with the Bears, both as the backup and third-string QB. After going with two QBs in 2009, the team decided to sign a veteran to back up Jay Cutler in 2010, bringing in Todd Collins in the preseason. Hanie would see limited action early in the season when Cutler was down with a concussion and Collins was ineffective, but he’ll be mostly remembered for his showing in the NFC Championship. With Cutler sidelined due to a torn MCL and Collins giving the Bears no life, Hanie entered the game late in the 3rd quarter, and nearly led the team back, going 13/20 for 153 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. GM Jerry Angelo praised Hanie’s play, but the third-stringer wasn’t happy with his placement on the depth chart and said he’d be open to offers if it put him in a better situation. With only two years service in the league, however, the odds are very good that he will remain a restricted free agent, and it’s hard to see any team making a strong play for him.
Drew Stanton (Det, UFA) – Not that we ever expected much from Stanton, but the drafting of Matthew Staffordin 2009 and the addition of Shaun Hill as the team’s top backup, pretty much confirmed that Stanton’s career wasn’t going anywhere in Detroit. But with Stafford’s injury issues not going away and Hill dealing with forearm and finger problems, Stanton ended up starting in three of his six appearances for the Lions in 2010 and he hung tough, thanks to the solid weapons around him and his ability to extend plays with his legs. A separated AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder ended his season in Week Fifteen and probably his tenure with the Lions. The local boy didn’t show much in his three years with the Lions and will probably never be anything more than a backup. Having some starts under his belt and being just 27 when the season starts should help his chances of landing a job elsewhere, but with Stafford on the mend and Hill under contract in 2011,
Patrick Ramsey (Min, UFA) – After appearing in just three games during a two-year tenure with the Broncos in 2007-2008, Ramsey has been on five different NFL rosters without taking the field. He was signed by the Vikings in mid-December when it was apparent Brett Favre couldn’t be counted on and Tarvaris Jackson suffered a turf toe injury, leaving rookie Joe Webb as their only healthy QB on the roster. Ramsey didn’t take the field for the Vikings, meaning he hasn’t played a game since 2008 and hasn’t started since 2005. The 32-year-old doesn’t appear to be anything more than a veteran hoping to latch on as a third-stringer somewhere in 2011.
Brian Brohm (Buf, RFA) – Brohm had a successful career at the
Kellen Clemens (NYJ,
Matt Leinart (Hou, UFA) – With Kurt Warner retiring after the 2009 season, Leinart was expected to start for the Cardinals in 2010, but he lost the job to Derek Anderson and was subsequently released in the preseason. Right before the regular season began, the Texans signed Leinart to a one-year deal to serve as the backup to Matt Schaub. Leinart didn’t take a snap for the entire season, yet he may get some looks from teams trying to find a veteran with starting experience. But at this point, we believe Leinart is better off as a backup because his accuracy issues, his lack of arm strength, and the fact that he doesn’t everything in slow motion. His career is in the toilet now, but you at least can’t rule out a look from Pete Carroll, his former college coach, in
Trent Edwards (Jac, UFA) – Edwards began his fourth season with the Bills in 2010 but lost the starting job to Ryan Fitzpatrick after just two games and was released. The Jaguars immediately signed him after losing backup Luke McCown to a torn ACL. Edwards made his Jaguar debut during the team’s Monday Night Football game against the Titan in Week Six when starter David Garrard went down with a concussion. Unfortunately, Edwards would suffer a thumb injury in that game, and by the time it healed, Garrard had already resumed the starting duties. Edwards wouldn’t play again until the season finale, when he started in place of Garrard, who was out with a finger injury. Although he has the tools to excel, Edwards continues to show a tendency to check down too much and his tentativeness as a passer remains an issue. The Jaguars may want to bring in someone to push Garrard in 2011, and we’re not sure Edwards is the guy. He should be able to find work as a backup, but it may not be in
Brodie Croyle(QB, KC) – We love shortening his first name to “Bro,” but this guy hasn’t been very fantasy-friendly over the course of his career, and he certainly hasn’t done very much since the Chiefs signed Matt Cassel in 2009. Croyle’s played in just five games the last two years, and his starts have come when
Troy Smith (QB, SF) – Despite signing a one-year deal with Ravens in 2010, the team cut Smith right before the season began, opening the door for him to sign with the 49ers. Smith backed up Alex Smith until he was named the starter for the team’s Week Eight game in
Luke McCown (Jac, UFA) – McCown was acquired from the Buccaneers before the 2009 season to back up veteran starter David Garrard, yet there was some talk of McCown pushing Garrard for the starting job before the 2010 season. Although McCown had a good preseason, nothing ever came of it early in the season, and when McCown ended up seeing time in mop-up duty against the Chargers in Week Two, he ended up tearing his ACL and was placed on the IR.
Kyle Boller (Oak, UFA) – After an ugly season with the Rams in 2009, Boller signed with the Raiders to compete for a spot on the team, which he won when Charlie Frye went on the IR in August because of a wrist injury. Boller entered the season as the team’s third-stringer, but ended up seeing action in Week Seven when both Bruce Gradkowski and Jason Campbell were injured. Boller appeared in five games, but attempted just five passes. Boller’s arm strength never fully returned after surgery a few years ago and he wasn’t that good to begin with, so we don’t expect him to be anything more than a backup, probably as a #3, in 2011. He’s athletic and has a big arm when healthy, but Boller has no touch or precision whatsoever, and he plays too fast. It’s clear he can’t play at a high level.
Chris Simms (Ten, UFA) – After spending the 2009 season with the Broncos, Simms was cut in March of 2010, but he was brought back into the league by the Titans in April. However, the team cut him before the season started, and he remained without a job until
Jim Sorgi (NYG, UFA) – After spending six seasons backing Peyton Manning in Indianapolis, Sorgi signed with the Giants in 2010 to back up Eli Manning. Unfortunately, Sorgi tore the capsule in his throwing shoulder during a preseason game against the Jets and ended up on the injured reserve before the regular season even started. He’s a well-respected backup and shouldn’t have trouble finding work, whether it’s with the Giants or another team looking for an experienced #2 QB.
Todd Collins (Chi, UFA) – Despite saying he would retire in 2009, the veteran signed with the Bears in the preseason to back up Jay Cutler this past year. Based on his play in 2010, he should have retired. When Cutler went down with a concussion in Week Four, Collins took over and would start the next week’s game against the Panthers, a terrible performance that saw him get picked off four times on just 16 pass attempts. Collins wouldn’t play against until the NFC Championship game when Cutler was lost to a torn MCL. Collins was pulled after just one series in favor of Caleb Hanie, and while he did have a shoulder injury, HC Lovie Smith said that wasn’t the reason for the move to Hanie. After coming through his end of season physical okay, Collins is taking his time to decide his future after sixteen seasons in the league.
Running Backs/Fullbacks
DeAngelo Williams (Car, UFA) – After back-to-back strong seasons with 1000+ yards and an average of 5+ yards per carry in each, Williams had a forgettable 2010. Of course, the season was forgettable for just about every player in
Ronnie Brown (Mia,
Cedric Benson (Cin, UFA) – The Bengal offense was a mess at times this past season, and the fact that the team often played from behind made the running game an afterthought too often for Benson owners. He still finished 5th in the league in carries, but Benson struggled to get going consistently behind an offensive line that failed to open holes up the middle. Instead of grinding out yards up the middle, Benson ended up bouncing plays outside and having to run stretch plays, which didn’t play to his strengths. He had a career-high 321 carries for 1111 yards and 7 TDs, with an average of 3.5 yards per carry – 0.7 lower than last year. He still averaged a solid 11.1 FPG, but the offense lacked rhythm, and Benson was frustrated with OC Bob Bratkowski, whose offense was considered stagnant by people around the league. Bratkowski has been let go, and Benson has expressed excitement about the hiring of Jay Gruden as the new OC. Gruden said he wants the offense to emphasize a power running game, and that’s music to Benson’s ears, since that is Benson’s game. It’s still possible Benson leaves
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG, UFA) – Bradshaw played in all 16 games during the 2010 season, although he battled a wrist injury and recently underwent surgery to clean up his ankle. He should be fine going forward after a career year that saw him run 276 times for 1235 yards and 8 TDs and catch 47 passes for 314 yards for a healthy average of 12.7 FPG. Bradshaw took over the starting role from Brandon Jacobs in camp but lost it during the season because of his fumbling problem. Still, the two split time with the “starter” title meaning little, and Bradshaw received 62.3% of the Giants’ carries among RBs, while Jacobs got 33.2%. The only problem was that Bradshaw had 7 fumbles. That is the biggest concern going forward, but he has clearly emerged as a legitimate threat after finishing 9th in the league in rushing. He also generally kept the ball off the ground after his “benching” in favor of Jacobs the first quarter of the season. Bradshaw has said he wants to remain in
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE, RFA) – The Law Firm is one of the more intriguing names on this list, since he’s coming off a season in which he became the first Patriot back to run for 1000 yards (1008) since Corey Dillon went for 1635 in 2004. We’ve often wondered how high the Patriots actually are on Green-Ellis, since they hadn’t used him much before last season, despite his showing flashes from time-to-time. As it was in 2010, the tandem of Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead made for a formidable backfield, and their production was especially impressive considering neither guy was even in the equation when the season began. When the Patriots were blowing teams out late in the season or getting close to the goal line, Green-Ellis was the guy, and he provided consistent fantasy value because of it. He proved to be a good goal-line back and a viable workhorse, so while we’ve heard from team insiders that he’s not considered a “must-have” by the organization, he should be back with the team, either as a restricted or exclusive rights free agent. The question will then be whether or not they bring in yet another back to compete for playing time with him, since veterans Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk could all be gone.
Michael Bush (Oak, RFA) – The 2010 season saw the emergence of Darren McFadden as a true bell cow back, but Bush showed he still had value and usually ran well when given the opportunity. He had a career-high 158 carries for 655 yards (4.1 average) and 8 TDs with 18 catches for 194 yards. He and McFadden formed an effective one-two punch to lead the NFL’s #2 ranked rush offense. Bush is a sustaining, powerful runner who can be very effective in short-yardage situations. He is set to become a restricted free agent, and the Raiders have expressed a pretty strong desire to bring him back and continue pairing him with McFadden, as the tandem clearly was effective last year with a team average of 155.9 rushing yards per game. Even owner Al Davis has made it clear that he was quite pleased with the results McFadden and Bush delivered in 2010. The one big question mark now is a DUI charge that Bush faces after he was arrested in
Mike Tolbert (SD, RFA) – Although RB Ryan Mathews was expected to lead the way for the Chargers in 2010, it was Tolbert who ended up as their top back for much of the season. Early on, he appeared to be more of a TD vulture type, with his bowling-bowl-like frame. Mathews’ injury issues and slow development put more responsibilities on Tolbert’s shoulders, and he did a fine job until suffering head and neck injuries in Week Sixteen, which caused him to miss the season finale. Down the stretch, he was splitting carries with Mathews, but he was the back they looked to in short-yardage and goal-line situations, and while his role shifted throughout the season, Tolbert was clearly their guy more so than Mathews. Tolbert ran 182 times for 735 yards and 11 TD, while chipping in 25/216 as a receiver. In addition to Tolbert, Darren Sproles is also a free agent, but we’d expect the Chargers to bring back Tolbert over Sproles if they had to choose between the two. In fact, the two sides have had some contract talks, and pending a new CBA, there’s a good chance the Chargers tender the restricted free agent the highest possible tender, meaning he’s probably not going anywhere. The Chargers are very high on him as an active complement to Mathews going forward, but down the road when it becomes unrestricted, it’s worth noting that Tolbert fancies himself a lead back, so he might be looking to leave for a chance to be a featured guy.
Pierre Thomas (NO, UFA) – The Saints knew they needed a power back to replace Mike Bell going into the 2010 season, and they found one in undrafted rookie Chris Ivory. However, while Ivory was far from perfect and the team finished only 28th in rushing offense, Ivory ended up being the only mainstay in their backfield. The versatile Reggie Bush got hurt in Week Two, and Thomas went down in Week Three with an ankle injury and played in just six games all season. Thomas fell out of favor while sidelined because it took so long for him to get back on the field – we’ve long heard whispers of the organization not being comfortable with Thomas in a lead role because of his durability issues – and he was reportedly nearly traded to New England before the trade deadline. He ended up sticking around and playing the final three regular season games, and for the season he had 83 carries for 269 yards and 2 TDs and 29 catches for 201 yards. Of course, he was unable to play again in the playoffs, and he missed their Wild Card loss to
Tim Hightower (Ari, RFA) – 2010 was supposed to be the year in which Beanie Wells emerged and lived up to his potential, pushing Hightower into a complementary role. Well, thanks to Beanie’s knee problems and lack of development, Hightower handled his usual workload and was the leading rusher for the league’s worst rush offense. He carried 153 times for 736 yards (a solid 4.8 average per carry) and 5 TDs with 21 catches for 136 yards. He had two 100-yard games, with 11/115/1 at
Ricky Williams (Mia, UFA) – With Ronnie Brown back healthy, Williams’ production dropped to 2008 levels, as he rushed 159 times for 673 yards and 2 TDs and caught 19 passes for 141 yards and 1 TD. He typically ran more effectively than Brown and averaged a half-yard more per carry for the season, but he simply didn’t get enough opportunities to produce consistently. Not only did the Dolphins have two similar mouths to feed at RB, but for some reason they opted not to commit to the run game much of the way, instead relying on the shaky arm of young QB Chad Henne. Perhaps their underachieving OL was to blame. Williams received 10 or fewer carries 10 times and didn’t crack the 100-yard mark once, with high rushing totals of 95 and 71. Age is obviously a concern for the 33-year-old Williams, but he’s stayed healthy and played in every game the last three seasons, and he continues to average better than 4 yards per carry. Williams has publically criticized the Dolphins, yet it’s still possible the team will try to bring back one of the two backs and Williams may actually be more likely than Brown to return because he’s a cheaper, short-term option. If he’s not back in
Jason Snelling (Atl, UFA) – Snelling is one of the league’s top backup RBs, yet he doesn’t get a ton of chances to carry the load as the backup to Michael Turner, who led the league with 334 carries. Snelling’s biggest moment came as a fill-in for Turner in Week Two, when he rushed 24 times for 129 yards and 2 TDs and caught 5 passes for 57 yards and 1 TD for one of the best fantasy performances of the year. It was against the horrendous Cardinal defense, but Snelling clearly showcased some serious talent in that game. He has a bit more juice as a runner, and unlike Turner he’s a legitimate threat as a receiver out of the backfield. Unfortunately, that’s about all he was for most of the season as little more than a change-of-pace back. He followed up his big game against the Cardinals with 14/62 at
Leon Washington (Sea, UFA) – Washington had a very limited role in the Seattle offense in 2010, especially after the team traded for Marshawn Lynch and paired him with Justin Forsett in the backfield.
Cadillac Williams (TB, UFA) – The days of Cadillac as a lead RB are over, as he fell out of favor in Tampa Bay and lost the starting job to undrafted rookie LeGarrette Blount. Williams still had a role as a receiver and had some success coming off the bench, but he was generally ineffective as a runner. On the positive side, it was his second straight full season after playing in a total of 10 games in 2007 and 2008. However, he had just 125 carries for 437 yards (3.5 yards per carry) and 2 TDs with a career-high 46 catches for 355 yards and a TD. Blount received 76 more carries and averaged 5 yards per attempt, despite touching the ball only 10 times in the first six weeks of the season. Williams will be 29 years old and averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in nine games this season, so if he tests the free agent waters, he’ll probably find nothing but a role as a 3rd-down, pass-catching back. And that’s exactly the role he could have if he re-signs with the Buccaneers as the backup to Blount, who has clearly established himself as the team’s lead ball carrier. That may actually happen, as the word in
Brian Westbrook (SF,
Darren Sproles (SD,
Jerome Harrison (Phi,
Le’Ron McClain (UFA, Bal) – Even though the Ravens entered the 2010 season with Ray Riceand Willis McGahee atop the depth chart in their backfield, it was McClain who openly campaigned for more carries both before and after the season ended. This stems from his surprising performance in 2008 when he ran 232 times for 902 yards and 10 TDs. Baltimore had more of a rotation at that time between the three backs, which made sense with Rice being just a rookie. As we know, Rice busted out in 2009 and had continued success in 2010. McGahee took a backseat to the former
Kevin Smith (Det, RFA) – Smith tore his ACL in 2009 and the Lions drafted Jahvid Best in the 1st round of last April’s draft, so not a lot was expected. However, he contributed even less than what was thought, as despite Best’s injury problems, he ended up playing in just six games as Maurice Morris ended up splitting time with the rookie. Smith had 33 carries for 125 yards and was put on the shelf after Week Ten, thanks to thumb surgery. So not only will the knee problem continue to hang over him, but now he’s coming off thumb surgery and has had more than 20 yards just once since Week Fourteen of 2009. He is a restricted free agent, and the Lions are likely to look elsewhere to find a more reliable running back to pair with Best in their 2011 backfield.
Jerious
Laurence Maroney (Den, UFA) – At 26 years old entering his sixth season, this former 1st-round pick should be in the prime of a stellar career right now, but that career is essentially in the toilet. He played in just four games in 2010 and was lost in the shuffle in
Mike Bell (Cle, UFA) – Oddly enough, the place Bell was talked about most this season was New Orleans, where the Saints looked to find a replacement power back after Bell departed in the off-season. The Saints did that successfully (Chris Ivory), while
Danny Ware (NYG, RFA) – Ware was occasionally in the news as someone who Giant HC Tom Coughlin said would get in the mix more, but there was never room in a backfield that also included Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs. Ware played in just nine games, carrying 20 times for 73 yards. His only significant action came with 13/66 at
Jalen Parmele (Bal, RFA) – There was some buzz about Parmele in the preseason as a possible replacement for Willis McGahee, but despite being active for all 16 games, Parmele didn’t have a carry and contributed only on special teams. After being cut by the Dolphins early in his rookie year (2008), Parmele signed with the Ravens and has been with the team ever since. He’s got good size at 5’11”, 222 pounds and is only 25, but he’s carried the ball only 7 times in his three-year career. Parmele could be brought back to compete with McGahee, or he could look to find a team that would give him a better opportunity to play. Or, the team may part ways with McGahee, who is owed a whopping $6 million base salary next season, and give Parmele a chance to compete for the backup job (FB Le’Ron McClain is also a free agent and wants more carries going forward).
Patrick Cobbs (Mia, UFA) – The illustrious career of Cobbs has seen his number of carries decrease in each of his four seasons, from 15/47/1 in 2007 to 13/89/1 in 2008, to 6/36 in 2009, and 4 carries for 0 yards in 2010. He has played a very minor role in a backfield dominated by Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, although he did contribute with 8 catches for 91 yards and 2 TDs last season. He was reportedly a favorite of HC Tony Sparano, but he’s nothing more than a #3 or #4 running back who works hard and contributes on special teams. That means he’ll stick around in the NFL, but he’s not going to be on the fantasy radar. However, he’s a good bet to return to the Dolphins, especially if Ricky and Ronnie are gone (or just one of them is gone).
John Kuhn (GB, UFA) – Kuhn emerged as a fan favorite RB/FB hybrid after the injury to Ryan Grant in Week One. After four years of very limited involvement in Pittsburgh and Green Bay, Kuhn shared touches with Brandon Jackson for much of the season and was used frequently in short-yardage situations. He had 84 carries for 281 yards and 4 TDs after getting a total of 18 carries in the previous four years. While he’s known as a short-yardage back, he has some value as a receiver and caught 15 passes for 97 yards and 2 TDs. The highlight of his season was in Week Sixteen against the Giants, when he had 2 rushing TDs and a receiving TD. Weeks Fifteen and Sixteen were his only two games with double-digit fantasy points in standard leagues. In terms of a fantasy, he’s a vulture threat at any moment and can also get carries near the end of the game to wear the clock out. That’ll be his role wherever he plays, whether it’s in Green Bay again or somewhere where a short-yardage back is needed. He doesn’t have the overall ability or athleticism to get a big chunk of carries, but he clearly showed that he can be a worthwhile contributor. Kuhn joins Jackson and FB Korey Hall as free agents in a Green Bay backfield that will welcome Grant back into the fold alongside James Starks next season.
Fred Taylor (NE, UFA) – Believe it or not, Taylor was actually still in the NFL last season. The 35-year-old veteran was bothered by a toe injury and saw time in just seven games, and that comes after he played in just six games in 2009. When he did play, his impact usually came later in games with the Patriots holding a big lead. In other words, he was equivalent to a mop-up reliever on a baseball team. He had 43 carries for 155 yards for the season, and given his injury history and lack of production in the last two years, it’s hard to imagine his career stretching into the 2011 season unless someone is desperate. The Pats are expected to clear their roster of at least two of their aged RBs, and Taylor’s probably the first two go.
Ken Darby (Stl, UFA) – With Steven Jackson continuing to be one of the few remaining backs not in any kind of a rotation, Darby has been relegated to a backup job with no specific role for the last three seasons. In 30 games over that span, Darby has carried it 93 times for 399 yards and 2 TDs, while adding 47/340/1 as a receiver. The Rams were happy with Darby’s play in 2010, but GM Billy Devaney said they are looking for a “game-changer” as a backup to Jackson. That doesn’t completely close the door on Darby, but he’s really just a decent receiver and a serviceable runner capable of putting up decent numbers. He’s already 28, so we don’t expect him to land somewhere as a starter, but he’s proven to be a capable backup and there’s something to be said for how he’s stuck here a couple of years as the #2 RB.
Kevin Faulk (NE, UFA) – While he may not be a marquee player, the loss of Faulk just two games into the 2010 season was a huge blow for the Patriots. Even though he’s never carried the ball more than 178 times in a season, Faulk’s contributions as a receiver have been huge, especially on 3rd down. Faulk is coming off reconstructive surgery after tearing his ACL and reportedly is seriously thinking about retirement. Considering the 35-year-old has spent his entire 12-year career with the Patriots and they now have Danny Woodhead to fill his role, we could see Faulk hanging it up after a solid career.
Sammy Morris (NE, UFA) – Even though he was active for all 16 games, Morris wasn’t very active on the stat sheet in 2010. He carried it 20 times for 56 yards and grabbed 7/77, but was near the bottom of the depth chart, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead taking almost all of the reps at RB. Morris does it all, but he mostly played FB and contributed on special teams this past season. The 11-year veteran will be 34 when the 2011 season begins, and he’s had some major injury issues. He could return in the same role, but we doubt he can handle much more.
Mewelde Moore (Pit, UFA) – Moore has provided the Steelers with a reliable third-down back for the last three seasons since coming over from the Vikings in 2008. He’s grabbed 87/658/2 over than span, while running 208 times for 775 yards and 5 TDs in 47 out of a possible 48 games. The Steelers typically use Moore when they are trailing, since Rashard Mendenhall isn’t really trusted as a receiver. While Isaac Redman might be the guy Pittsburgh would look to if Mendenhall went down for an extended period of time, Moore has carved out a nice role as a third-down specialist. He’ll be 29 when the 2011 season, his eighth in the league, so he’s not exactly fresh, but he could still be an active part of some team’s backfield if he’s not back in the black and gold.
Derrick Ward (Hou, UFA) – Ward was a complete bust in Tampa Bay in 2009 and didn’t do much to endear himself to the coaching staff in the 2010 preseason, which is why the team cut him before the regular season began. He landed with the Texans as the backup to Arian Foster and was active for all 16 games. While the team didn’t use him in any particular way, Ward found his way into the end zone 4 times and ran for 315 yards on 50 carries. Going back to his days with the Giants, Ward has been a better fit as a second back who can catch the ball well and can carry the load if needed. While his speed doesn’t appear to be an asset anymore (not that it really ever was), Ward has shown to be a good backup and would fit that role on a team with an established starter. However, his place on the Texan roster may be in jeopardy, as 2010 #2 pick Ben Tate has been medically cleared from the serious ankle injury he suffered in 2010. We would think he’d be a better option than the aged Ward, plus they still have Steve Slaton on the roster.
Brian Leonard (Cin, UFA) – Leonard’s 2010 season took some time to get going after he suffered a foot sprain in the Hall of Famer game during the preseason. He didn’t make his season debut until Week Three, but landed on the IR in late December after an ankle injury limited him down the stretch. Between the foot and ankle injuries, in addition to a thigh problem, Leonard appeared just 11 games, getting only 9 carries for 61 yards and 20 receptions for 137 yards and a TD. Those numbers are down from his 2009 totals, which saw him run it 27 times for 84 yards while adding 30/217 as a receiver. At 6-1, 225 pounds, Leonard was primarily used as a lead blocker, but was called upon at times to pick up short-yardage and does have good receiving skills, which often put him on the field on 3rd down. Leonard has battled to make the team in training camp the last few seasons and with new OC Jay Gruden in place, the team could be going through some major changes. If Leonard doesn’t return to the Bengals, the 27-year-old should be one of the top FBs available this off-season. While his primary role is as a blocker, Leonard has proven his versatility by being an effective receiver as well.
Ladell Betts (NO, UFA) – The Saints initially signed Betts in the preseason, but he was cut right before the regular season began with the team deciding to keep Chris Ivory as the backup to Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. When Bush broke his leg in Week Two, Betts was re-signed and ended up in a rotation with Ivory and Julius Jones soon after Pierre Thomas went down with an ankle injury in Week Three. Betts ended up appearing in 8 games (1 start) before suffering a concussion and a shoulder injury in Week Eleven, which landed him on the IR. During that span he ran for 150 yards and 2 TDs on 45 carries, but also proved his value as a receiver with 23/141. New Orleans has some decisions to make at BR when it comes to their top guys, so Betts could be in the mix as a backup if changes are made, especially since he knows their offense. But he’ll be 32 in August and has a lot of injury issues, so he won’t exactly be a priority.
Dominic Rhodes (Ind, UFA) – With no NFL team showing serious interest, Rhodes signed with the Florida Tuskers of the UFL and ended up scoring 10 TDs, rushing for 547 yards, and finished 3rd in the league in yards from scrimmage. Once their season was over, Rhodes signed with the Colts in early December with Joseph Addai and Mike Hart still nursing injuries and Donald Brown not running with much effectiveness. In three games with the Colts, he ran for 172 yards on 37 carries. The 32-year-old veteran looks like he can still contribute as a backup and on special teams as a return man, so he might get some looks this off-season from teams looking to fill the role, including the Colts.
Mike Hart (Ind, RFA) – When Joseph Addai went down, it was Hart, not Donald Brown, who looked liked the best back in the Colt backfield. Unfortunately an ankle injury suffered early November would limit Hart for the rest of the season and eventually land him on the injured reserve. Between his ankles and knees, injuries have been a major issue for Hart, who’s played in just 21 games in his three years in the league. When healthy, Hart showed he can be a contributor, as he’s able to run with some fire and shows burst at times. The Colts have some serious issues in their backfield, so Hart could get another chance with them in 2011, but only as a backup.
Jackie Battle (KC, UFA) – In 2010, the Chiefs had one of the best rushing attacks in the league led by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Unfortunately, that left little for Battle, who spent the season third on the team’s depth chart. He was active for the entire year, but he carried the ball just 20 times for 50 yards and a TD. Charles has solidified himself as one of the best backs in the league, and the team rewarded him with a large contract extension during the season. The question is whether or not Jones will return in 2011 as his career winds down. If he doesn’t come back, Battle could, and at 6’2”, 238 pounds, he could be a nice foil to the quicker, dynamic Charles.
Garrett Wolfe (Chi, UFA) – Wolfe has spent his entire four-year career with the Bears but is coming off his worst season. Despite being active for all 16 games, Wolfe carried the ball just 4 times for 8 yards, playing behind Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. In those four seasons, Wolfe has run just 72 times for 282 yards and a TD while chipping in 11/129 as a receiver. He’s been considered a fine special teams player but at 5’7”, 185 pounds, he doesn’t exactly have the size to be much more than a change-of-pace back – and he really hasn’t been that for the Bears. Wolfe could have a chance to do more for the Bears if they keep him around and end up letting veteran Chester Taylor go, which is possible, since Wolfe will be 27 when the season begins, whereas Taylor turns 32 at the end of September. However, while there were some rumors of Taylor’s possible demise in Chicago, it appears for now he will return in 2011.
Wide Receivers
Vincent Jackson (SD, UFA) – Jackson played in just four games in 2010 after holding out for the first half of the season, and upon returning, a calf injury quickly put him back on the sidelines. He ended up catching 14 passes for 248 yards and 3 TDs after back-to-back 1000-yard seasons. He’s not quite at the level of the physical freaks like Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson, but Jackson has a great combination of size (6’5”, 230) and speed, and he has #1 WR ability if he’s actually on the field. The Chargers opted to put the franchise tag on the six-year veteran, and Jackson will likely play under the tag and make about $10 million without protest, should tags be a part of a new CBA. However, GM A.J. Smith has said the team has no plans to negotiate a long-term deal with Jackson right now. That means there’s a good chance we’ll be in the same position next year, with Jackson potentially becoming a free agent in 2012. For now, he’ll have to focus on playing a full season to increase his value after playing in just a quarter of the 2010 games.
Sidney Rice (Min, UFA) – Rice has had one big season out of four, as he put up 84/1312/8 with the help of a big year from QB Brett Favre in 2009, as injuries have been a significant problem. Rice had hip surgery before the 2010 season, causing him to miss the first 10 games, and in playing the final six he had 17/280/2. Durability is a major concern when you add a 2008 knee problem to the hip injury, and Rice’s future in Minnesota is in question after the team opted to use its franchise tag on LB Chad Greenway. The team still wants to lock Rice up with a long-term deal, and they are reportedly poised to make an offer to him as of late-February, but Rice could still test the market and see what he can get. Given the questions that surround him but also his abilities, it’ll be interesting to see what he can fetch on the open market if it comes to that. If the Vikings are able to retain him, obviously the big question is at quarterback, where the team is in a sad state right now. If he’s on the move, New England could be an intriguing destination as an outside WR option alongside Wes Welker and Deion Branch. Ironically, we compared Rice to Randy Moss when we interviewed Rice way back in 2007, and the Pats could see him as a Moss replacement. When healthy, he can be a terrific downfield threat who is capable of making tough, contested catches and winning battles for jump balls down the field and in the red zone. He just has to stay healthy and find a good match at QB.
Santonio Holmes (NYJ, UFA) – Despite missing the first four games of the 2010 season because of a suspension, Holmes made an instant impact with his new team and generally played well, despite the up-and-down play of QB Mark Sanchez. In 12 regular season games, the 26-year-old Holmes caught 52 passes for 746 yards and 6 TDs, highlighted by 5/114 at Detroit and 7/126/2 against the Texans, although those aren’t exactly top pass defenses. After not getting into the endzone the first four games, he caught 6 TDs in the final 10. Two of those were game-winning TDs, and he also scored twice in the playoffs. Holmes is a versatile receiving threat capable of playing anywhere on the field, and in terms of raw talent he’s one of the top WRs in the league. The one thing he lacks is size at just 5’11”, 192 pounds, but his versatility and ability to stretch the field as a deep threat make him possibly the most attractive receiving option on the market. The Jets seem to agree, as after putting the franchise tag on LB David Harris, it appears that Holmes will be their top priority. It’s possible that the Jets bring both Holmes and Braylon Edwards back into the fold; however, if just one re-signs, bet on Holmes being back in New York in 2011.
Braylon Edwards (NYJ, UFA) – Even with Edwards joining Santonio Holmes and Antonio Cromartie as impending free agents this off-season, the Jets opted to place the franchise tag on LB David Harris. The Jets will try to bring at least one WR back between Edwards and Holmes, and while Edwards had a nice season last year as a deep threat, Holmes is the better player and should be the Jets’ top target. Inconsistency has always been a big problem for Edwards, and it seems he’s more suited to play the role of a #2 WR who contributes mainly downfield. He’s had only one truly big season out of six (80/1289/16 in 2007), and his 53 catches for 904 yards (17.1 average) and 7 TDs in 2010 probably gave him the second best season of his career. Of course, his numbers could have been even better if it wasn’t for the wildly inconsistent play of Mark Sanchez at QB. Based on his body of work in the NFL, it’s tough to know if Edwards will be consistent moving forward, yet he should draw interest after his stellar 2010 campaign, one in which he became a bit more reliable and made some tough catches. A team such as the Rams, looking to upgrade their receiving corps with promising young QB Sam Bradford, or the Bears, where he could be matched with the strong arm of Jay Cutler, would make sense for Edwards.
Steve Smith (NYG, UFA) – Smith faces a long road to recovery after undergoing microfracture knee surgery in December and missing the final three games of the regular season. With the knee injury and a previous pectoral injury, Smith played in just nine games in 2010, catching 48 passes for 529 yards and 3 TDs as Hakeem Nicks emerged as the team’s top WR. The Giants have a deep and talented receiving corps led by Smith, Nicks, and Mario Manningham, but it was plagued by injuries all season, as Smith joined Ramses Barden, Victor Cruz, Domenik Hixon, and Sinorice Moss on IR. While he still played a key role in the passing offense, Smith’s production dropped off, thanks to the more prominent roles Manningham and especially the emergence of Nicks as a go-to guy. Still, Smith’s a consistent target who is reliable on third down and can be used to sustain offense. It appears likely that the Giants will try to bring Smith back, and the injury concern will obviously be a major hindrance to his testing the open market. Smith is a few months behind the schedule that Giant S Kenny Phillips faced, as Phillips underwent microfracture surgery in late September 2009 and ended up returning to practice in mid-August and playing all 16 games of the 2010 season. It seems unlikely that Smith will end up anywhere outside of New York, and it’s possible he’ll get a one-year contract and see if he can re-establish himself after a rough knee injury.
Terrell Owens (Cin, UFA) – It was already pretty clear that T.O. would not be returning for a second year in Cincinnati, but he went ahead and made that even more clear in a recent NFL Network appearance, when he criticized the entire organization and placed blame on the coaching staff for the team’s failures. At 37 years old, Owens has played in San Francisco, Philadelphia, Dallas, Buffalo, and Cincinnati, with three different teams in the last three years. Now, he’ll search for a sixth team as he rehabs his knee after undergoing surgery in mid-December. Like the rest of the Bengal offense, T.O. had an up-and-down 2010 season. He started off slowly and put up numbers like a tight end, but he went through a stretch in Weeks Four through Nine when he might have been the hottest receiver in the league, with a 200-yard game, two 100-yard games, and 7 TD catches in a five-game span. His numbers fell off a bit at the end, and the knee injury ultimately sidelined him for the last three. For the season, he caught 72 passes for 983 yards and 9 TDs in 13 games. Clearly, T.O. doesn’t have the speed that he once had, but he showed he still had some gas left in the tank. The offense just had no rhythm, with Carson Palmer struggling at QB and poor run blocking up front, and once T.O. gets upset and starts throwing around blame, you know things are in trouble. Obviously, Owens is going to be a risk for anyone in free agency. He may have showed that he can still produce, but his knee injury at 37 isn’t exactly going to help his already diminished speed. Plus, teams are always going to be wary of signing him because of the baggage that’s always attached to him. Owens has said he thinks he has a couple of years left in him, and someone in need of a veteran receiver is sure to eventually agree – although don’t bet on anything more than another one-year contract. But at least this time, after he’s behaved relatively well the last two years, he might not have to resort to the bottom of the barrel (i.e. Buffalo).
Malcom Floyd (SD, UFA) – With Vincent Jackson holding out, Floyd entered the 2010 season looking to establish himself as a #1 WR in one of the league’s best passing offenses. He showed flashes, but it didn’t exactly work out like that. Floyd unfortunately joined the rest of the Charger offense in battling injuries for much of the season, and he ended up missing five games. He caught 37 passes for 717 yards and 6 TDs, proving to be a big-play threat with an average of 19.4 yards per catch. He had a few very nice games early (3/95/1 in Week Two and 6/97/1 in Week Three), and he appeared ready to blow up when he put up 8/213/1 against Oakland in Week Five. But then he hurt his hamstring in Week Six and didn’t return until Week Eleven and proceed to miss another couple games a few weeks later. The nagging hamstring injury is a major concern, especially for someone who is at his best as a deep threat with great leaping ability. Floyd has shown a lot of potential, but he’s never had more than 45 catches in six seasons. The Chargers opted to place the franchise tag on Jackson, so he’ll be back in the fold in 2011 as the top WR for Philip Rivers, and the team also should have a healthy Antonio Gates, the league’s best TE, back in the lineup as well. Floyd will be 30 years old once the season begins, so it begs the question as to how much money a team will be willing to throw at an aging receiver who has yet to live up to his full potential and has durability issues? Given that Jackson is coming back to the Chargers, Floyd may end up elsewhere, with the Rams and Falcons among those who might make for good fits, and possibly the Jets if Braylon Edwards doesn’t return. Basically, any team that has a need for a solid #2, particularly a guy who can be a downfield threat, should be interested in Floyd as long as the price is reasonable – and that could still include the Chargers.
Steve Breaston (Ari, UFA) – With free agency looming this year, Breaston seemingly fell out of favor in Arizona in 2010 and ceded playing time to rookie Andre Roberts toward the end of the season. Breaston has been unable to replicate his success as a second-year receiver in 2008, when he had 77/1003/3. Since then, he’s had 55/712/3 in 2009 and 47/718/1 in 13 games in 2010, although it didn’t help that the Cardinals were operating with one of the worst QB situations in the league. Breaston has actually performed very well when he’s been healthy the last two years, and he did manage a few big games in the first half of the year (7/132 in Week One and 8/147 in Week Eight stand out), but he was sidelined in Weeks Four through Seven because of a knee injury, and that knee continues to be a concern as he likely heads out of Arizona. Given how the season ended with his losing targets to Roberts, it’s hard to imagine his re-signing in Arizona. If healthy, he’s a speedy receiver who can contribute as a return man as well. Despite the nagging knee injury, he’s still likely to draw plenty of interest, and perhaps Kansas City would be a good landing spot, as the Chiefs need more depth at WR, and Breaston’s best season came with Chief HC Todd Haley as his offensive coordinator in Arizona.
Randy Moss (Ten, UFA) – When people said the Patriots were lacking a deep threat like Moss in the playoff loss to the Jets, they forgot one important thing: Moss isn’t much of a threat anymore. Sure, he can make still make a play or two, but he didn’t exactly show that this year in his journey around the NFL that took him from New England to Minnesota to Tennessee. In 13 games, Moss caught just 28 passes for 393 yards and 5 TDs, and he spent most of his time on the bench with the Titans, as he caught just 6 passes in the second half of the season. Moss at 33 years old isn’t exactly a fossil – although he’s an “old” 33 – and is just one season removed from putting up 83/1264/13 with the Patriots in 2009. However, it’s hard to say he’s just in need of a change of scenery, as he did that twice already in 2010 to no avail. There’s no question that he’s capable of randomly putting up 4/100 in a game. It’s just that he seems more likely to catch 1 pass for 5 yards at this point in his career, and it’s tough to tell if he’ll ever be motivated enough to contribute consistently again. New Titan HC Mike Munchak hasn’t given a definitive answer about Moss returning to Tennessee, but it’s hard to imagine that happening. Another team will likely step up and take a chance on Moss in the hope that he can regain some of that 2009 form. Of course, the Titans were the only team to put a claim in on Moss after he was waived by Minnesota, so the list of potential suitors may not be long.
James Jones (GB, UFA) – It’s difficult to gauge Jones’ value, as he was the Packers’ #3 WR and often out-produced Donald Driver in 2010, but he’s also inconsistent and had more than 50 yards just six times in the regular season. Jones also drops passes too often, with a potential game-changing play in the Super Bowl standing out, in particular. The loss of Jones wouldn’t be the end of the world for the Packers, as Jordy Nelson has emerged out of the slot and could fill the #3 role, and the passing game will also see a huge boost from the return of TE Jermichael Finley next season. Still, Jones, who had 50 catches for 679 yards and 5 TDs, could find himself in a #2 WR role in GB rather quickly, thanks to the decline in production from the aging Driver. He’s a very solid outside receiver who can make plays down the field, and that potential could cause another team to overpay for him. There are plenty of teams in need of help at WR, such as Cincinnati, Cleveland, Minnesota, Atlanta, Oakland, and Seattle, and all it takes is one high offer to pluck Jones out of Green Bay. Jones has said he’d love to stay in Green Bay, but it’s far from a guarantee that he’ll be a Packer next season. He already has his ring, so now he might be willing to play somewhere else to get paid.
Lance Moore (NO, UFA) – In a New Orleans offense that spreads the ball around to many targets, Moore has established himself as one of the most reliable possession receivers in the NFL. A slot receiver who also plays some on the outside, Moore finished 2nd on the Saints with 66 catches for 763 yards and 8 TDs, and he was able to pick up some of the slack as an underneath receiver from RB Reggie Bush, who was sidelined for much of the season. Moore played in all 16 games after seeing action in just six games in 2009 because of an ankle injury, and he caught 5+ passes nine times. He rarely contributes a huge game (6/149/2 in Week Three counts as the exception), but he was a consistent sustaining element of the offense who Drew Brees could count on to move the chains because of his quickness and ability to find open spaces. He’s had two strong years in five, with his best season coming in 2008, when he put up 79/928/10. Moore would fit in as a complementary receiver just about anywhere, but he will likely be a top priority for the Saints as they look to keep their high-powered passing attack intact. We’ve interviewed him multiple times in the past and have asked him about his future with the team, and he’s always said that he’s willing to accept a lower-profile role in New Orleans, so he doesn’t strike us as a guy who’ll be looking to get an unrealistic big payday elsewhere.
Mark Clayton (Stl, UFA) – After spending the first five seasons of his career with the Ravens, Clayton became expendable when the team added WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Right before the 2010 season began, the Rams traded a 6th-round pick in the 2011 draft for Clayton and a 2011 7th-round pick. Considering Clayton joined the team just days before Week One and the Rams decided to go with rookie QB Sam Bradford as their starter, it was pretty shocking to see Clayton grab 10/119 in his debut in the blue and maize. The connection between the two made sense when you consider the former Oklahoma Sooners worked together before Bradford was drafted to the Rams. The relationship continued to blossom until Clayton when down with a torn patellar tendon just five games into the year, ending his season prematurely. Clayton, who started in all five games, caught 23/306/2 on 41 targets, and was well on his way to eclipsing his career-best season, which came in 2006 with the Ravens when he put up 67/939/5. Although we saw flashes from guys like Brandon Gibson, Danario Alexander, and Laurent Robinson, only Danny Amendola had a comparable connection to the one Clayton had with Bradford. In January, Clayton said his rehab was ahead of schedule and that he desired to stay with the team based on the relationships he has with many members of the organization. In late February, the Rams made it clear they were looking to re-sign Clayton as soon as possible, and a lockout wouldn’t change their motivation to get a deal done. Considering the uncertainty at the WR position, it would make sense for the Rams to bring back Clayton, since he has great chemistry with Bradford. The veteran receiver turns 29 in July, but considering he wants to return and the team seems to want him back, we’d expect him to be a member of the Rams in 2011. We’ll have to see what they do in the draft and in free agency, if there is free agency, but a trio of Clayton, Alexander, and Amendola may wind up being an effective one for the Rams.
Legedu Naanee (SD, UFA) – We know that San Diego’s top two WRs, Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd, are free agents, but what does that mean for Naanee? The four-year veteran had a chance to prove his worth in 2010, but he mostly disappointed. With Jackson holding out, Naanee found himself in the starting lineup opposite Floyd to start the season and impressed with a 5/110/1 outing in Week One. Unfortunately, that was the high point of his season. Over the next four weeks, Naanee would catch 6/107 and was then sidelined by a hamstring issue until Week Twelve. He finished the season on a high note, catching 8/138 in the last two games. While not quite as big as Jackson or Floyd, he still has good size at 6’2”, 220 pounds, yet he never seemed to really click with QB Philip Rivers, which is odd considering how well Rivers played with just about everyone else. In 10 games (9 starts), Naanee finished with 23/371/1 on 46 targets. When the Chargers needed Naanee most, more often than not he came up small, even though he has the skill set to make plays underneath or down the field. His stock also took a hit when he was arrested for public intoxication and resisting arrest in mid-February. The Chargers might be willing to put up with Jackson’s off-field issues because of his production on the field, but we doubt they’ll want to bring back Naanee after an underwhelming season and his run-in with the police. Of course, if he’s willing to agree to a meager contract, a return is always possible. If not, he’s only 27 and should be able to get a chance for a fresh start elsewhere in 2011.
Jacoby Jones (Hou, UFA) – Jones has never had an issue with size or talent. At 6’2”, 210 pounds, he looks like a #1 WR, and his speed has made him a dangerous downfield threat, as well as a nice return man in his four years with the Texans. The issue for Jones has always stemmed from what’s going on between his ears. The Texans have given this guy plenty of chances to succeed, but overall inconsistency always seems to hold him back. With TE Owen Daniels struggling early on and WR Kevin Walter showing little to no upside, there was an opportunity for Jones to become the #2 receiving option behind WR Andre Johnson. Between Jones’ continued struggles with inconsistency, a nagging calf injury, and the Texan passing game having trouble getting on track, Jones failed to emerge as a reliable threat. However, he finished the season with 22/287/1 in the final four games, which helped him to the best season of his career (51/562/3, 77 targets). In addition to being a big-play threat, Jones was a nice red-zone target for QB Matt Schaub and stepped up when Johnson was hampered by an ankle injury. We know Jones hasn’t fully realized his potential – and he’s been more or less a tease – but the strong finish may earn him another chance to prove he can be a reliable starter for an offense that can be extremely dangerous if he does. Jones will be 27 in July and his raw talent may attract some attention from teams with an established #1 WR if his future is not in Houston.
Jason Hill (Jac, UFA) – Hill was drafted by his hometown 49ers in 2007, but never lived up to expectations as he, much like QB Alex Smith, struggled with all of the coordinator and coaching changes that took place in his time with the team. His best season with the team came in 2008, when he caught 30/317/2 in 16 games. After being inactive for the most of the first half of 2009, Hill played in the team’s final nine games, but he managed only 9/90/2. He was initially cut by the 49ers before the 2010 season began only to be re-signed just a week later. He appeared in only two games for the Niners and was put on waivers in mid-November. The Jaguars claimed him when Mike Sims-Walker was dealing with an ankle sprain and Tiquan Underwood was struggling with drops. In eight games with the Jags, Hill had 11 catches for 248 yards and a TD. Hill was primarily used a deep threat, which makes sense with his good speed and size at 6’0”, 202 pounds. The 26-year-old may get another crack with the Jaguars, since he flashed some potential with them in 2010 and since they are so thin at WR. But if not, there are a few teams looking for a downfield option, like the Ravens and Falcons. Hill can also play inside, so he has some versatility.
Laurent Robinson (Stl, UFA) – Although he wasn’t a household name at the time (and still isn’t), we liked the trade the Rams made before the 2009 season to acquire Robinson from the Falcons. At 6’2”, 197 pounds, he is a tall, fluid receiver, who runs good routes and finds ways to get open, despite not having great speed. Just three games into his tenure with the Rams, Robinson fractured his fibula and was placed on the injured reserve. When the Rams didn’t acquire any veterans, outside of Mark Clayton, for the 2010 season, it looked like Robinson would get another chance to prove his worth. The injury bug bit him again in the team’s Week One game when he hurt his foot. Robinson tried to play though the injury, but then developed an ankle problem soon after which sidelined him for the next two weeks. Even though he didn’t miss a game from Week Five on, Robinson played most of the season with a toe injury and never really jumped off the page at any point other than a few very brief flashes. He ended up starting in 11 of his 14 appearances, but managed just 34/344/2. Besides the injury problems, Robinson had a rough time figuring out his role with the team. Working with a rookie QB, even one as talented as Sam Bradford, is never easy, but when Robinson ended up in a rotation with guys like Mark Clayton, Brandon Gibson, and Danario Alexander, he never had a chance to truly shine. Robinson doesn’t have a lot of upside, whereas a bigger, faster Alexander does, and while both have injury histories, it’s much easier to find a solid, possession guy like Robinson than it is to find someone with the skill set to potentially be a #1 WR, like Alexander. The general consensus is that Robinson, who turns only 26 in May, won’t be back with the Rams. Robinson can still contribute to a winning team, but he’ll have to prove he can make it through a full season without getting hurt. That’s probably a lot to ask at this point.
Early Doucet (Ari, RFA) – The Cardinals got a nice lift from Doucet in the 2009 playoffs, when he grabbed 14/145/2 in two games when WR Anquan Boldin was out. Doucet’s play in the postseason certainly came into play when the team decided to trade Boldin to the Ravens in March of 2010. Doucet was penciled in as the team’s slot receiver during the preseason, but he suffered a groin injury in Week One and ended up on the sidelines until Week Seven due to sports hernia surgery. He ended up catching more than two passes just three times all season and missed the final two games of the year with a hip injury. Obviously, the horrific QB situation didn’t help, but it was the second straight season Doucet missed significant time, after missing the first seven games of 2009 with a rib injury. Doucet would end up playing in just 10 games in 2010, finishing with 26/291/1. He doesn’t jump off the page with his ability or size (6’0”, 212 pounds), but he is a solid slot receiver with some physicality when he’s healthy. Outside of Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals have some serious issues with their passing game, including the QB position and the secondary WR spots. As a restricted free agent, Doucet could return on a low tender, although there has been talk of making Andre Roberts, who showed promise in his rookie season, the team’s slot receiver. Arizona may want to keep Doucet around if they let Steve Breaston, who’s had knee issues, test free agency as a UFA. Doucet has good hands and solid size/physicality in addition to a high football I.Q., so if the Cardinals do let him go, he should have some suitors looking to fill what has become an increasingly important slot position.
Devin Aromashodu (Chi, RFA) – Perhaps no one’s bandwagon crashed and burned faster than Aromashodu’s in 2010. After putting up 22/282/4 in the final four games of the 2009 season, many believed he was the top receiver for QB Jay Cutler heading into 2010. Despite all the positives we heard in the off-season about the Bear receiving corps handling new OC Mike Martz’s system, it was Martz who said early in the regular season that Aromashodu could play only outside. After grabbing 5/71 in Week One, Aromashodu was shut out in Week Two and found himself deactivated for the next two weeks after he apparently had a falling out with the coaching staff that was related to his refusal and/or inability to play inside. He was active for the rest of the regular season but caught passes in just four other games and never had more than two receptions in a single game. In 14 games, he finished with 10/149/0 on 24 targets. Even though he’s an RFA, the Bears aren’t expected to bring him back because of inconsistencies, inability to grab Martz’s system, and lack of a role on special teams. The general belief is that Aromashodu needs to restart his career elsewhere, which he can certainly do, considering he’ll be 27 in May and has decent size at 6’2”, 201 pounds. However, he doesn’t run well, and his route-running needs work, so he’ll have to improve in those areas if he wants to be a contributor in 2011. As promising as his end to the 2009 season was, the fact remains this guy’s done very little and has bounced around the league a little.
Brandon Stokley (Sea, UFA) – The Broncos cut Stokley in the preseason after he spent the three previous seasons with the team. Seattle scooped him up at the end of September, and he ended up playing the rest of the season for the Seahawks, mostly in the slot. The 34-year-old may have been in his 12th season but showed that he can still be productive, putting up 31/354 on 43 targets, good for an amazing 72% of ball caught. He continued to pay dividends in the playoffs, getting the Saints for 4/73/1 in the upset victory over the then-defending Super Bowl champs and 8/85/1 in a loss to the Bears in the Divisional round. Heading into 2011, the only WR Seattle can have any real confidence in is Michael Williams, considering Ben Obomanu, Ruvell Martin, and Golden Tatenever showed much consistency, and Deon Butler broke his leg toward the end of the season. Even though the Seahawks made the playoffs, they are closer to the rebuilding stage than being a contender, so they may not want to bring back someone as old as Stokley, although HC Pete Carroll doesn’t seem to care about age very much when it comes to assembling his roster. Stokley may not have a lot of time left in the league, but he can still contribute out of the slot as a dependable target for a team looking for a veteran receiver. We’re sure, however, Seattle would prefer that Tate, a #2 pick in 2010, emerges as their slot guy.
Donte Stallworth (Bal, UFA) – Stallworth returned to the league with the Ravens in 2010 after sitting out the 2009 season due to suspension. He was expected to give the team a much-needed downfield threat to complement starting WRs Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason. Stallworth broke his foot during the preseason and didn’t make his debut until Week Nine. He ended up with just 2 catches for 82 yards on the season after appearing in 8 games. For whatever reason, the Ravens never seemed to use Stallworth as a deep threat, instead involving him on trick plays and reverses. While there’s no doubt, the Ravens lacked firepower in their passing attack, there were some murmurs that he wasn’t a favorite of the coaching staff, which may explain his healthy scratch in an important Week Fifteen game against the Saints. It’s tough to be confident about a 30-year-old receiver who’s been on five different teams since the 2005 season, but with Stallworth’s size (6’0”, 220 pounds) and speed, he can still be a contributor as a deep threat on a team with an established receiver or two, which doesn’t rule out a return to the Ravens. It should be noted that Stallworth has expressed a desire to return to the Patriots, a team that lacked a consistent deep threat in 2010. He’s also mentioned in late-February that he’s open to returning to the Ravens, believe it or not.
Chansi Stuckey (Cle, UFA) – Quick, who was the Browns’ leading WR last season? If you answered, “The Browns don’t have any WRs,” you were almost correct. Chansi Stuckey, in fact, led the WRs with 40 catches for 346 yards and 0 TDs, pretty much right on par with the first two seasons of his career. TE Ben Watson and RB Peyton Hillis led the Browns in receiving, and the lousy WR corps also dealt with shaky QB play much of the way, although rookie Colt McCoy showed positive signs. Really, despite his status as the team’s top WR statistically, there’s not a whole lot to say about Stuckey. He averaged just 8.7 yards per catch, didn’t score a TD, and had 3 fumbles, so we’re not exactly dealing with someone who should be in a starting lineup or on anyone’s fantasy radar. It’s possible the Browns will bring him back for depth, but this is a team looking to make a splash with either a veteran WR, a top WR in the draft, or both to give McCoy some more legitimate options in the passing game.
Derek Hagan (NYG, UFA) – Hagan was initially signed by the Giants at the end of the 2008 season and remained with the team the next year, appearing in all 16 games. The Giants ended up releasing Hagan during the final round of cuts shortly before the 2010 season began. When WRs Steven Smith and Hakeem Nicks went down with injuries, Hagan was brought back by the team due to his familiarity with their offense. He would appear in seven games (four starts) and grabbed 24/223/1 on 42 targets, becoming a solid possession receiver for QB Eli Manning to trust. While there’s nothing about his talent that jumps off the page, Hagan does pass the eye test at 6’2”, 215 pounds and has been a contributor on special teams. He’s only 26 and has just four years of service under his belt. Considering Smith is a free agent and his status is in doubt after undergoing microfracture surgery, Hagan may get another chance with New York, especially since they don’t have any proven options outside of Nicks and Mario Manningham, and since the team likes his work ethic.
Brad Smith (NYJ, UFA) – Here’s the basic gist of what we wrote for Smith week after week this season: If you’re not in a return league, he shouldn’t be in your lineup. That’s not to say Smith isn’t a valuable NFL player. He’s a speedy former college QB who can be used in the Wildcat, and he ranked 2nd in the league in kick returns (28.6 average), with 2 TDs in 2010. As a receiver, he caught just 4 passes for 44 yards, but he contributed on the ground with an impressive 38 carries for 299 yards (7.9 average) and 1 TD. With his versatility and ability to contribute on special teams, he should draw some interest. He joins Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards as free agent Jet WRs, and while the team has said it wants to bring all three back, that’s highly unlikely. The problem with Smith is that he has shown limited upside as a WR, and while he can run well, teams have moved away from the Wildcat.
Kevin Curtis (KC, UFA) – The Eagles cut Curtis back in March of 2010 after he struggled to come back from arthroscopic knee surgery. He had workouts with the Lions and Giants, but he didn’t sign with either team heading into the start of the regular season. Football took a backseat for Curtis when it was revealed he was battling testicular cancer in September. He had surgery to remove a cancerous testicle before anything could spread and resumed training a few weeks after. The Dolphins came calling in mid-December, signing Curtis to a one-year deal, but would cut him just two weeks later. In two games with Miami, Curtis had a single catch. That wouldn’t be the end of Curtis’ season, though, as the Chiefs signed him right before their playoff game against the Ravens. Curtis had a single catch in the loss. Once again, the 32-year-old finds himself without a team, and while he’s had a fairly productive career playing mostly for the Rams and Eagles, he can’t run very well anymore, thanks to his aforementioned knee issues. While his speed is gone, Curtis may be a decent pickup for a team looking for a veteran possession receiver with some short-area quickness.
Brian Finneran (Atl, UFA) – After suffering season-ending knee injuries in 2006 and 2007, Finneran has played in 42 out of a possible 48 regular season games over the last three years for the Falcons, including every game of the 2010 season. He’s been relegated to a back-up role near the bottom of the depth chart and caught 51/446/3 during that span. Finneran remains a solid red-zone target because of his size (6’5”), but his big play ability is nearly gone because of the knee issues. Finneran has been in the league since 1999 and recently turned 35, so we doubt there are a lot of suitors for him in 2011. The Falcons aren’t deep at WR, so Finneran could return on a short-term basis, although we think they’ll look to make a bigger splash in free agency with a reliable #2 WR.
Micheal Spurlock (TB, RFA) – Most of Spurlock’s career in the league has been spent as a return man. In fact, during his first tenure with the Buccaneers back in 2007, he became the first player to return a kickoff for a TD in team history. Since entering the league in 2006 as an undrafted free agent with the Cardinals, he hasn’t made much of an impact as a receiver. That is until this past season, when he played in all 16 games for the Buccaneers, grabbing 17/250/2 as a rotational depth receiver. He also served as a return man for both punt and kicks and took a kickoff back for a TD. Spurlock played some QB at Ole Miss, which the Bucs took advantage of when they put him in their “Taser” package. With Spurlock coming off his best season and showing he can play a variety of roles, the Bucs may decide to keep him around, although they may let him go if someone matches the RFA tender he’s given.
Kelley Washington (SD, UFA) – Washington spent the 2009 season in Baltimore and began 2010’s training camp with the Eagles, but he didn’t make the team. He signed with the Chargers in early November with Vincent Jackson on the roster-exempt list, Buster Davis on the IR, and Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee dealing with injuries. He made his Charger debut in Week Nine, but he didn’t catch a pass until Week Thirteen. Washington was pretty active in the final five games of the season, catching 13/173/1, with his best game coming against the Bengals in Week Sixteen (5/40/1). While his 6’3”, 217-pound frame surely helped, playing on a pass-first team like the Chargers with a great QB like Philip Rivers surely boosted Washington’s stats a bit, although the strong finish may have helped boost interest in the 31-year-old. Washington is probably just a depth guy who can play special teams, but he can still move well and possesses a nice pair of hands.
Tight Ends
Zach Miller (Oak, UFA) – While still not a household name, Miller has been the top pass-catcher in Oakland’s receiving corps for some time now. He may not look that athletic at 6’5”, 255 pounds, but Miller moves well and always seems to find ways to get open. Amazingly, he’s been a productive player even with guys like JaMarcus Russell, Bruce Gradkowski, and Jason Campbell throwing him the ball in the last few years. His 2010 season started well but began to tail off in the middle due to a torn plantar fascia and fibula injury that severely limited his movement and ended up sidelining him in Week Nine. After finally getting healthy, he finished the season on a high note, with 21/204/1 in his last four games. Despite the injuries and Oakland using a more ground-based attack, Miller still finished with 60/685/5 in 15 games, and that’s with inconsistent play at the QB position and injuries. With Miller getting his first crack at free agency, there were rumors that the Raiders would lock him for 2011 with the franchise tag, but that is not the case, so Miller looks to be heading to the open market at some point (whenever free agency begins). The Raiders apparently didn’t want pay Miller the $7.3 million the franchise tag brings after giving DL Richard Seymour a monster deal in February, yet they have reportedly been negotiating with him this month. Oakland might not have much of a choice but to keep him around considering their receiving corps currently consists of guys like Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, Jacoby Ford, and the always-injured Chaz Schilens. If the Raiders let Miller hit the market, he would be one of the top options available at the position, and would draw interest from many teams, especially since he’s only 25.
.jpg "When healthy, Owen Daniels has shown he can be a dominant player, but knee and hamstring issues have sidelined him often in the last two seasons. He may end up starting elsewhere in 2011.")
Owen Daniels (Hou, UFA) – While Daniels has looked like a top-5 talent at the TE position when healthy, injuries have cost him significant time in the last two seasons. After a strong start to the 2009 season, Daniels tore his ACL, and he was not fully healthy at the start of the 2010 season, despite taking the field in Week One. He was slowly integrated into the offense but also missed time because of a hamstring injury, limiting him to just 11 games (a total of 19 in the last two years). When he finally got healthy, Daniels showed he can still be a dominant player, ending the season with 22/271/2 in his final four games. He claimed in December that he was finally 100%, and the numbers speak to that. For the season, he had 38/471/2 on 68 targets (56% caught). When he’s been on his game, Daniels has been a reliable #2 receiver for the Texans, a role they’ve struggled to fill when he’s been on the sidelines or less than 100%. Daniels has been looking for a long-term deal from Houston since 2009, but free agency rules have enabled the Texans to avoid making that commitment. Daniels has been training in Houston during the off-season and has expressed a desire to remain with the team. The 28-year-old will be entering his sixth season in the league and is expected to land a starting job elsewhere if the Texans don’t bring him back. Injury history aside, at 6’3”, 250 pounds, Daniels is very athletic and fits the new prototype for athletic TEs who can move around the formation. It looks like Daniels will be one of the many players waiting for resolution with the CBA before he ends up signing anywhere.
Marcedes Lewis (Jac, UFA) – Before his 2010 breakout season, Lewis had been the definition of “just a guy.” He never jumped off the screen when you watched him play, and his career bests in catches (41), yards (581), and TDs (2) showed him to be a decent player at best. That changed this past year when he grabbed 58 balls for 700 yards and a whopping 10 TDs, while being named to his first Pro Bowl. Lewis was arguably the Jaguars most consistent receiver and proved to be one of the best all around players at the TE position, due to his strong blocking and solid receiving. Lewis never showed a lot of upside because he still doesn’t run that well and the Jaguar offense was limited, but 15 of his 88 targets came in the red zone, where he became a very reliable option for QB David Garrard. In addition to his great hands, what makes Lewis a complete TE is his ability to use his size (6’6”, 275 pounds) to be a solid blocker, which was needed with a young, still developing Jaguar OL. Lewis has had nothing but positive things to say about the team and has expressed a desire to return. The two sides have been working towards a long-term deal, but with nothing done yet, the Jaguars used the franchise tag, which would pay him in the area of $7.3 million. They will continue to negotiate, but the tag pretty much guarantees he’ll be a Jaguar in 2011, barring a change in the rules that would come as a result of the CBA talks.
Kevin Boss (NYG, UFA) – Boss has never played a major role in the Giant offense, but he has stepped up and produced when called upon, which was the case in 2010. The four-year veteran player was used primarily as a blocker early in the season because the team was so deep in their receiving corps with Hakeem Nicks, Steven Smith, and Mario Manningham. However, when Nicks and Smith went down with injuries, Boss became a reliable target for QB Eli Manning around the middle of the season. From Week Nine through Week Fifteen, he grabbed 21 passes for 302 yards and 5 TDs when he was used as a chain-mover and red-zone/TD threat who was able to take advantage of beatable matchups. After the season, Boss had a scope on his hip, which he said went very well. Even though the team has a younger, more athletic TE in Travis Beckum on the roster, Boss has been an important part of the running game as a blocker, so we could see him return to help there with Beckum possibly doing more as a receiver – although Beckum’s progress has been quite slow. Besides his role as a blocker, Boss’ reliability as a receiver makes him tougher to let go with so much uncertainty surrounding Smith, another free agent, whose future is in doubt after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee. Boss probably won’t command a lot of attention if he does test the market, but he could be a solid addition for a team looking for an experienced all-around TE.
Jeremy Shockey (NO, UFA) – The Saints opted to cut the aging Shockey and dump his $4.2 million base salary, opening the door for the talented Jimmy Graham to get even more playing time. Shockey has struggled with injuries throughout his career and has never played a full season, and Graham essentially emerged as the top option for the Saints at TE toward the end of the season. Shockey caught 41 passes for 409 yards and 3 TDs in 13 games in 2010, and he’s missed 10 regular season games in four years with the Saints. At this point in his career, the 30-year-old Shockey is a bit sluggish on the field, although he’s still capable of getting open and making catches to move the chains on short and intermediate passes. The Saints didn’t rule out bringing Shockey back for a reduced rate with the understanding that he’d be a reserve. However, it’s clear that it’s Graham’s time in New Orleans, so expect to see Shockey elsewhere in 2011, with places like Denver and Buffalo seeming like possible options if they choose to get the TE involved a bit more. And of course, you have to think Miami is a strong possibility, since Shockey’s a South Florida guy. In fact, he’s already taken and passed a physical for the Dolphins.
Bo Scaife (Ten, UFA) – With Jared Cook taking longer than expected to develop, the Titans stuck with Scaife as their starter to begin the 2010 season. For most of his career, he’s been a steady option at the position with good size and solid hands, but while he’s sneaky-athletic, he doesn’t stretch the field and isn’t dynamic after the catch, so he has limited upside, whereas Cook has potentially-elite ability, with great athleticism and plenty of upside. Scaife topped 4 catches just once all season and never had more than 53 yards in a single game, which proves his lack of upside. Whether it had to do with his support of Vince Young or the rise of Cook, Scaife was a non-factor in the final three games of the season, registering 0 catches and two healthy scratches. Those close to the team have reported that Scaife will not return to the Titans in 2011. The six-year veteran turned 30 in January and is probably looking at a back-up job with a team that already has an established #1 TE.
Dante Rosario (CAR, UFA) – Rosario was technically the Panthers’ back-up TE behind Jeff King in 2010, but he was the targeted much more frequently. Of course, the Panthers had a horrendous passing offense and didn’t utilize the TEs much, so it’s not as if Rosario put up numbers anywhere near the fantasy radar. He caught 32 passes for 264 yards and 0 TDs, with a season-high 47 yards coming in Week Two. After getting 3 red-zone targets in the first three weeks, he had just 3 red-zone targets in the final 13. It’s not like anyone else on the team was getting into the endzone, but in four years, Rosario hasn’t shown much – although he’s pretty athletic and has shown much more upside than King. He should land somewhere as a #2 TE, and the Panthers are likely to go for a big upgrade at the position under a new coaching staff with former Charger TE coach Rob Chudzinski taking over as OC. Obviously, he knows something about having a TE heavily involved in the offense. We can’t rule out a return to Carolina, as Rosario does have some untapped potential, but there aren’t any indications he will return.
David Thomas (NO, UFA) – The Saints have already made one move at the TE spot, as they cut ties with veteran Jeremy Shockey to open the door for Jimmy Graham as the permanent starter. Thomas had a limited role in each of the past two seasons with the Saints, although it’s been a step up from his three years of little-to-no involvement with the Patriots to start his career. Thomas caught 30 passes for 219 yards and 2 TDs in 2010, but he caught just 1 pass after Week Eleven with Graham emerging as a legitimate threat. He did have 20 red-zone targets in the last couple of seasons, and he can be effective as a short-to-intermediate receiver. He’s just not exactly dangerous with the ball in his hands. Thomas is a reserve and a role player and little more, and it’s possible the Saints will bring him back as the #2 behind Graham with Shockey now out of the picture.
Evan Moore (Cle, RFA) – Moore occasionally showed some ability as a receiver in 2010, as he averaged 20.1 yards per catch. However, he ended up catching just 16 passes for 322 yards and a TD and was placed on IR in December with a muscular injury in his hip/groin. He’s caught 28 passes in two seasons, and he was decent at times as a backup to the Browns’ leading receiver, Ben Watson. Highlights included games with 3/87, 4/84, and 3/69, but he also missed a good chunk of time because of a concussion. A former wideout, Moore is an athletic player who has shown plenty of upside, and he still has time to emerge as a legitimate receiving threat. He’s certainly shown signs of it. Now, he just needs to stay healthy and get on the field. As a restricted free agent, he’ll likely return to Cleveland as the #2 TE paired with Watson and young QB Colt McCoy.
Daniel Fells (Stl, UFA) – The TE position wasn’t necessarily a weakness for the Rams in 2010, but no one player stood out above the rest. Fells was the most productive, having a career year with 41/391/2 on 64 targets in 16 games, 6 of which he started. At 6’4”, 272 pounds, he’s proven to be a reliable option, most notably in the red zone, but he did have some drops and suffered a broken leg towards the end of the 2009 season. The Rams do have other options at the position, like Michael Hoomanawanui, who showed flashes in his rookie season, but ankle sprains on both legs limited him to just seven games, so the team didn’t get a great look at him. They also have a project-type player in the extremely athletic Fendi Onobun, but his season was cut short in November by a back injury. With some options already under contract, the Rams could let the 27-year-old Fells test the open market, while still leaving the door open for him to return.
Jeff King (Car, UFA) – New Panther HC Ron Rivera went from San Diego, where the Chargers boast the league’s top TE in Antonio Gates, to Carolina, where King has started all but two games in the last four years. That also goes for new Panther OC Rob Chudzinski, who was Gates’ position coach. Since putting up a promising 46/406/2 in 2007, King has done very little, including just 19 catches for 121 yards and 2 TDs last season. It didn’t help that the Panthers had such a horrendous QB situation, but King splits time with fellow free agent Dante Rosario and has not proven to be much of a threat in the passing game. If you need proof that he’s not much of a threat, he didn’t have more than 22 receiving yards in a game in 2010. Someone will surely pick King up as a back-up TE, which is where he should be instead of starting every game in a season. Don’t expect it to be Carolina, as the Panthers and their new coaching staff will likely try for a major upgrade at the position and will get the TE involved in the offense much more than the previous staff.
Leonard Pope (KC, UFA) – Pope has spent four of his five years with Todd Haley, even following him from Arizona to Kansas City. But in five seasons, he’s made a minimal impact, despite his 6’8”, 264 frame that would seemingly make him a top red-zone target. Pope caught just 10 passes for 76 yards and 2 TDs last season, and his best year came when he put up 23/238/5 in 2007. Pope is behind Tony Moeaki on the depth chart, and he was mostly utilized as a blocker on running downs. No one wants to overpay for a blocking TE who has yet to live up to any potential as a receiver, aside from the 5 TDs in ’07. In fact, he had just 2 red-zone targets all year in 2010. Still, he’ll be useful somewhere – possibly back in Kansas City – as a #2 TE who can be used as a blocker in two-TE sets and maybe even as a tall target in the endzone.
Randy McMichael (SD, UFA) – After three years in St. Louis, McMichael joined the Chargers as a backup to star TE Antonio Gates for the 2010 season. Backing up the league’s best receiving TE isn’t the most glamorous job, but McMichael ended up having some value because of the foot problems that derailed the second half of the season for Gates. The 31-year-old McMichael caught 20 passes for 221 yards and 2 TDs, although both TDs came in the same Week Nine game against the horrendous Texan defense. McMichael had more than 2 catches just once (5/55 in Week Fifteen), and at 6’3” 255, he’s essentially “just a guy.” He’s a decent backup who can catch a few passes here and there at this point in his career, and he’s not the same guy who caught 60+ passes in three straight seasons in 2004-06 with the Dolphins. He’s worth a look for any team that needs a back-up TE, and it couldn’t hurt for San Diego to continue to have insurance for Gates.
Top-10 Non-Skill-Player Free Agents
1. Nnamdi Asomugha (CB, Oak) – Asomugha is almost certainly the biggest prize of this year’s free-agency market, something we could have predicted when the Raiders terminated his contract in January. With the Raiders recently signing CB Stanford Routt to a three-year extension, it appears even more unlikely that Asomugha will be back in the silver and black next season. There’s no doubt Asomugha will command a huge deal. Pound-for-pound, he may be the best cover corner in all of football, one whom opposing QBs respect so much they just ignore him for most of the game. Multiple teams will be interested in Asomugha, perhaps none more than Philadelphia, which already has a top CB in Asante Samuel but still gave up a franchise record 31 TD passes in 2010. But the Eagles, if interested, would have incredible competition for other franchises looking to add some instant credibility to their secondaries. Asomugha has that kind of power. One drawback: He’ll be 30 in July, so a long-term contract has to be considered a risk.
2. Johnathan Joseph (CB, Cin) – The Bengals have some serious decisions to make when it comes to their free agents in 2011, but none may be bigger than the one they’ll have with Joseph. Joseph and Leon Hall have been a solid combination at corner for the Bengals in the last few seasons, but Joseph is the more talented of the two. He was a 1st-round pick in 2006, so this will be the first crack at free agency for Joseph, who turns 27 in April. Joseph’s 2010 campaign was limited to 12 games due to a variety of injuries, most notably an ankle problem that plagued him for most of the year. He would end up with 3 INTs, including one for a TD, 8 pass deflections and 37 total tackles. The Bengals, who are notoriously stingy, are not expected to use their franchise tag on Joseph, since it would cost them more than $14 million, but with the Broncos giving CB Champ Bailey, who’s no longer an elite corner, a four-year, $43 million deal in late February, Joseph now has a comparable player’s contract he can point to for his negotiations. We’re not saying Joseph is as good as Bailey, but he’s in that tier and is seven years younger, so the money can’t be that far off. As we said, the Bengals have some tough decisions to make, especially with Hall entering a contract year.
3. Charles Johnson (DE, Car) – For the first three seasons of Johnson’s career, he’d been a rotational player on the Panther DL, mostly because DE Julius Peppers was ahead of him on the depth chart. With Peppers taking big money to sign with the Bears in 2010, Johnson got a chance to start and took full advantage of the opportunity. Playing and starting in all 16 games, Johnson racked up 11.5 sacks, which ranked him 7th among DLs. The 24-year-old found himself on the field in all situations and proved to be a more than capable replacement for Peppers. For the second straight season, the Panthers could lose their top DE to free agency, although they’ve chosen to apply a restricted free agency tender based on Johnson having only four years of service. That move may end up being meaningless if a new CBA agreement changes the free agency rules, but for now, it does protect the Panthers if the rules remain the same. Johnson was happy to not get the franchise tag, as he would like to work out a long-term deal to stay in Carolina. If Johnson were to hit the market, the strong 6’2”, 275-pounder would be a hot commodity for teams looking for a pass rusher.
4. Ike Taylor (CB, Pit) - The only colors Taylor has worn in his eight-year career have been black and gold. He just completed a five-year, $22.5 million deal that had made him the highest paid corner in the league back in 2006. Taylor struggled that year and lost his starting job, only to regain it by the end of the season. He’s kept the starting job ever since then and has been considered the team’s top corner. Taylor’s great leaping ability combined with his size (6’2”, 195 pounds) makes him a dual threat of an athletic player who isn’t afraid to play physical. While he may not be the shutdown corner he once was earlier in his career, the Steelers typically assigned Taylor to their opponents’ top receiver. Despite his physical attributes, Taylor hasn’t come through with more than 3 INTs in any season due to his questionable hands and is coming off 11 pass deflections in 2010, his lowest total since the 2004 season. Taylor has always fit the team’s defensive scheme well and has been a solid run defender. The Steelers confirmed that they’ve begun talks with Taylor, who turns 31 in May, and they avoided using the transition tag on him, which would have paid Taylor almost $12 million in 2011.
5. Barrett Ruud (LB, TB) – Ruud has been open about wanting a long-term deal from the Buccaneers for the last two seasons, but they never gave it to him, so he’ll be able to test the market as a free agent. While Ruud may feel underappreciated, GM Mark Dominik had nothing but good things to say about the six-year veteran, noting that he led the team in tackles (for the fourth straight season) and his playmaking ability stood out in 2010. Ruud finished the season with 85 total tackles, 33 assists, 2 sacks, 1 INT, and 2 FFs. Ruud, who will turn 28 in May, has been the team’s starting MLB since 2007 and hasn’t missed a game since that year. Ruud is considered the leader of the defense and makes sure his teammates are where they are supposed to be. In addition to being a smart player, Ruud’s athleticism fits the team’s scheme well, and he’s solid in pass coverage. While he’ll never jump off the page, Ruud has been as solid as they come and has done pretty much everything asked of him while in a Buccaneer uniform. The team is also dealing with another free agent LB in Quincy Black, who has expressed a desire to remain in Tampa Bay. Considering the team was unwilling to give Ruud a contract extension, he’s expected to test the market. At 6’2”, 241 pounds, Ruud has shown that, in addition to playing MLB in the 4-3, he’s also able to play ILB in a 3-4, which the Bucs showed some of at the end of last season.
6. Stewart Bradley (LB, Phi) – After being a backup and contributor on special teams for his first season in 2007, Bradley was named the starting MLB for the Eagles in 2008 and had a great year, with 86 total tackles, 22 assists, 1 sack, 1 INT, 6 pass deflections and 1 FF. The team had even higher hopes for him heading into the 2009 but never saw him on the field after he torn his ACL in the preseason. The injury bug bit him again in the team’s first game of the 2010 season, when he suffered a concussion that caused him to miss the following week. He stayed relatively healthy for most of the year until dislocating his elbow in Week Fourteen, which ended his season prematurely yet again. He finished with 49 total tackles, 11 assists, 1 sack, 6 pass deflections, and an INT. It was an up-and-down year for Bradley, and before his elbow injury, he was losing snaps to rookie Jamar Chaney. Bradley has been compared to Brian Urlacher in terms of his size and athleticism, but his injury history has prohibited him from reaching his full potential. While it’s believed that the Eagles would like to bring Bradley back, it may not be as a MLB, with Chaney expected to take over that role in 2011. Instead Bradley would be moved to the strong side, where Moise Fokou struggled in 2010. Bradley is expected to be fully recovered from his elbow injury in time for OTAs (if they happen). While Bradley has shown flashes of being a great run-stopper and a solid contributor against the pass, his injury history and inconsistent play do hurt his value a bit, although he’ll be only 27 when the season begins.
7. Ray Edwards (DE, Min) – Edwards was a candidate for the Vikings’ franchise tag, but he was ruled out after the team placed it on LB Chad Greenway. That means Edwards, 26, will be perhaps the most sought-after pass rusher on the open market. In five NFL seasons, Edwards has accrued 29.5 sacks, including 16.5 in the last two seasons opposite Jared Allen on the defensive line. Edwards seems to acknowledge how important this off-season is to his future in the league because he plans on taking up boxing to stay in shape in the event the potential NFL lockout lasts into the summer. Should the free-agency period go off without much of a hitch, however, expect Edwards to draw interest from multiple teams seeking a complementary, and perhaps foundational, pass rusher. The Saints have already been thrown around as a team with potential interest.
8. Antonio Cromartie (CB, NYJ) – The Jets might have had the NFL’s best corner duo with Cromartie and Darrelle Revis in 2010, but Cromartie could potentially parlay his strong season into a long-term deal with another franchise. Cromartie is saying all the right things in regard to his desire to stay with the team, and Revis wants him back, but if the Jets view 2010 first-round pick Kyle Wilson as potentially ready to step in and contribute, Cromartie could be looking for his bucks elsewhere. Cromartie does have his drawbacks. His tackling is consistently questioned (with good reason), he has a reputation as being difficult to handle in the clubhouse, and he’s almost completely useless when asked to play inside. But he’s younger than the other top CB on the market, Nnamdi Asomugha (Cromartie will be 27 in Week One, Asomugha will be 30), and he’s more of a natural playmaker. If the Jets place more of a priority on retaining Braylon Edwards and/or Santonio Holmes, there’s a chance Cromartie will be moving on, and he should generate a ton of interest.
9. Richard Marshall (CB, Car) – Marshall is one of the more underrated corners in the NFL and could be a significant free-agent find for teams that either miss out on Nnamdi Asomugha and/or Antonio Cromartie or simply don’t want to shell out the bucks either player will command. Marshall’s been absolutely buried in a bad situation in Carolina, but many don’t realize how effective the corner tandem between him and Chris Gamble has been over the last few years. But Marshall has openly acknowledged that the Panthers plan on moving on from him this off-season and rebuilding, and he could provide a very nice veteran option for a team looking for a boost in the secondary. Marshall is only 26 and has 14 INTs in five NFL seasons, plus, he is well regarded for his tackling. He might be considered a “consolation prize” in this healthy CB market, but he’s a solid player worth a multi-year deal.
10. Jared Gaither (OL, Bal) – Gaither missed the entirety of the 2010 season with a back injury, and the Raven offensive line really struggled as a result (especially Michael Oher, who was inconsistent, at best). Gaither will now enter free agency and his status is up in the air, although a return to Baltimore is certainly not out of the question. Gaither does want to stay at left tackle, and he insinuated that the opportunity to do so would sway his decision on where he signs. At this point, he knows he’s going to be able to negotiate because the Ravens used their franchise tag on DT Haloti Ngata, meaning Gaither will certainly hit the free-agent market in some capacity. Tons of teams have needs for offensive linemen, but although Gaither says he’s cleared to play, he’s likely going to have to prove himself healthy before he lands a gigantic payday. This is really hard to speculate on. A lot of teams could use Gaither now and can justify the risk of signing him, but we could just as easily see him signing a one-year deal in Baltimore to work his value back up.
FantasyGuru.com’s Matt Camp, Matt Brown, and John Hansen contributed to this report.
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