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Horn Report: Reading the Entrails

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by Mike Horn FantasyGuru.com

Posted: 10/6/07

Three or four games into the NFL season is a hard time to make statements about what we’ve learned so far.  The players’ statistics are distorted even more than normal by fluke games, one-time injuries, and especially strength of schedule.  And strength of schedule is very difficult to get a handle on right now – does Drew Brees look bad because he’s played tough defenses or do those defenses look tough because Drew Brees is playing bad?  Trying to make sense of this is like the ancient soothsayers predicting the future by poking through chicken guts.  But understanding that there are limitations to what I’m going to do, let’s give it a shot.

 

I’ve assessed the schedule already played by every player at the three main offensive skill positions.  Then I’ve done the same for their upcoming games.  I’ve used those strength of schedule numbers to determine what their schedule-neutral fantasy points (FP) are so far, and predict (guess) what they will be the rest of the way.

 

First, I took each player’s opponents so far and added up their points allowed per game to that player’s particular position.  Then I divided that sum by the number of games the player has been in to give me what his opponents have allowed per game, on average. I then divide the league average points allowed per game by his opponents’ average.  This gives me a strength of schedule (SoS) rating.

 

For example:  Drew Brees has played IND, TB, and TEN.  Those three teams have allowed to QBs: 15.6 + 13.6 + 16.1 = 45.2.  Divided by three games, Brees’ opponents have allowed 15.1 QB FP/G.  The league average is 18.5 FP/G allowed to QBs: 18.5 divided by 15.1 = 1.23.  That 1.23 is the SoS rating for Brees.

 

An SoS rating of 1.00 would mean a player had faced an average schedule.  A number greater than 1 would indicate a tough schedule, a number less than 1 would be a weak schedule.  Brees’ 1.23 is the toughest schedule any QB has faced so far (assuming as noted before that it’s not Brees’ own suckitude that’s distorting those defenses’ numbers).

 

Next, I multiplied the player’s FP/G by his SoS rating to estimate what he would have scored if he played an average schedule.  In theory, that would tell me what his fantasy totals would look like if he had played the same and the only thing that had changed was the quality of the pass defenses he had faced.  I also recalculated the player’s rank in FP/G with these adjusted points.  Here’s a look at the five toughest QB schedules so far:

 

Toughest Early Season Schedules

Quarterbacks

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

29

Drew Brees

NO

3

1.23

13.4

16.4

22

22

Philip Rivers

SD

4

1.20

16.2

19.4

13

14

Matt Schaub

HOU

4

1.16

18.2

21.1

10

43

J.P. Losman

BUF

3

1.14

5.9

6.8

41

16

David Garrard

JAC

3

1.13

17.7

20.0

12

 

QB Scoring:  Pass TD =4 FP; 20 Pass Yd = 1 FP; Rush TD = 6; 10 Rush Yd = 1 FP

 

Brees is currently 29th in PPG.  His SoS Rating is 1.23.  That means his actual FP/G of 13.4 would be to 16.4 Adjusted FP/G, for an adjusted rank of 22nd among all fantasy QBs.  My conclusion:  he hasn’t been as bad as he’s looked, but it’s not just tough defenses keeping him out the top 5 QBs. 

 

Another disappointing QB, Phillip Rivers has also been held back by a tough schedule – he’s actually playing like a marginal starter, but tough opponents have hidden this fact.  So it may be too soon to give up on him.

 

Matt Schaub and David Garrard have been decent fantasy options so far in bigger leagues, and that’s even with tough schedules.  J.P. Losman has been bad and would be bad no matter what – just a little less so if he’d had an easier schedule.  Note I’m only showing the tough schedules of QBs with three or four games played; the ranks are for all QBs.  In the interests of doing this study in a reasonable time, my calculations are a little simplified, so Losman’s “schedule” includes the Bills game against the Jets even though Losman didn’t actually play last week.  His adjusted numbers might be a tad higher than I’m crediting him with here – and still would be bad.

 

Easiest Early Season Schedules

Quarterbacks

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

25

Josh McCown

OAK

3

0.84

15.1

12.6

30

26

Steve McNair

BAL

3

0.84

15.0

12.6

31

2

Tom Brady

NE

4

0.85

27.1

22.9

6

11

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

4

0.88

19.5

17.2

20

24

Jason Campbell

WAS

3

0.90

15.7

14.2

25

 

Then there’s the players who have taken advantage of the easiest schedules.  Actually, only Tom Brady has really capitalized – he would be scoring about 4 FP/G less if he had played an average schedule.  Ben Roethlisberger would not have been as productive against a typical set of opponents.  And yes, Steve McNair, Josh McCown, and Jason Campbell could all be doing worse.  Ouch.

 

One thing to consider with Brady and Rothlisberger, in particular, is that having an easy schedule has inflated their numbers, but also meant that there was probably less need to throw late in games.  If they played a “normal” schedule, they might have been less effective per pass, but had to throw more total passes.  Hard to say for sure what the net effect would have been – perhaps less than I’m estimating with these numbers. 

 

What about for the rest of the year?  Well, I calculated the Predicted SoS the same way I did above.  This of course assumes that the defenses that a player will face won’t change their performance from what they’ve done so far.  The Predicted FP/G use the Pred SoS rating combined with the Adjusted FP/G – not the actual FP/G.  In the table below, I show those numbers plus the predicted change in the players rank and FP/G from the actual numbers.  Also, these numbers are through week 16 only.

 

Toughest Remaining Schedules

Quarterbacks

Rank

Player

Team

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

25

Josh McCown

OAK

15.1

12.6

1.14

11.0

33

-8

-4.1

8

Peyton Manning

IND

22.7

23.3

1.13

20.7

10

-2

-2.0

29

Drew Brees

NO

13.4

16.4

1.08

15.2

23

6

1.8

22

Philip Rivers

SD

16.2

19.4

1.08

18.0

18

4

1.8

4

Jon Kitna

DET

24.1

23.9

1.07

22.4

6

-2

-1.7

 

Yes, Josh McCown or whoever is the QB in Oakland has the toughest remaining schedule.  That should depress their fantasy scoring by 14% - about 4 FP/G in McCown’s case.

 

Peyton Manning’s schedule is also very hard.  He might see his numbers go down as well.  Obviously, a lot of things will factor into this, but he might be a guy to trade now if you get good value back.

 

Brees and Rivers will continue to face hard schedules.  Why might their numbers improve anyhow?  Their opponents, while tough, will be easier than they’ve faced so far.  If that’s all that changes, they still won’t be good fantasy starters.  If they improve their performance (or get better play around them), they could do better than these predictions – but remember, they still appear to have tough schedules ahead.

 

Jon Kitna may come back to earth a little, but his schedule is not so hard that he won’t be a good fantasy QB if he stays healthy.

 

Easiest Remaining Schedules

Quarterbacks

Rank

Player

Team

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

43

J.P. Losman

BUF

5.9

6.8

0.95

7.1

41

2

1.2

35

Matt Leinart

ARI

9.9

10.8

0.95

11.4

32

3

1.5

2

Tom Brady

NE

27.1

22.9

0.96

24.0

2

0

-3.1

26

Steve McNair

BAL

15.0

12.6

0.96

13.2

29

-3

-1.8

15

Eli Manning

NYG

18.0

19.3

0.96

20.1

12

3

2.1

 

Losman – or Trent Edwards – has the easiest remaining schedule.  It’s not clear if either one of them will do anything with it.  The same could be said about Matt Leinart, but Kurt Warner has shown that he might be able to take advantage of an easy schedule, given the chance to play full-time (he could also fumble like crazy and get benched).

 

Tom Brady will continue to have an easy schedule – not as easy as the first four games, but still favorable enough.  His scoring may cool off some but still looks to be a top 2 QB.

 

Eli Manning may be able to exploit an easy schedule to move up.  The PRED RK of 12 probably understates his rank as some of the QBs ranked ahead of him have been hurt (Jake Delhomme), or might get benched (Brian Griese, Derek Anderson, and Chad Pennington cannot be considered locks to play all year).  At the end of the article are the complete tables so you can apply some judgment to these numbers.

 

Turning to the running backs:

 

Toughest Early Season Schedules

Running Backs

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

8

Edgerrin James

ARI

4

1.26

14.8

18.7

4

25

Larry Johnson

KC

4

1.25

9.0

11.2

20

34

Brandon Jackson

GB

3

1.24

7.9

9.8

26

30

Warrick Dunn

ATL

4

1.22

8.4

10.3

25

20

Rudi Johnson

CIN

3

1.20

11.0

13.2

15

 

RB Scoring:  10 yards = 1 FP; TD = 6 FP

 

Edgerrin James has done quite well despite a very difficult schedule.  Larry Johnson should do better with an easier schedule, but it will also take some improvement in his performance for him to be a stud RB again.  Rudi Johnson’s number have also been held down by his schedule, as well as his injury.

 

I’m showing Brandon Jackson and Warrick Dunn, but you can read “GB and ATL backfields” have generally suffered from tough schedules so far.  They would have been marginal RB2s in any case, but the schedule hasn’t helped.

 

The following backs have benefited from easy schedules:

 

Easiest Early Season Schedules

Running Backs

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

4

LaMont Jordan

OAK

4

0.86

16.8

14.4

11

5

Marion Barber

DAL

4

0.90

16.8

15.2

9

19

Sammy Morris

NE

4

0.92

11.8

10.9

22

11

Willis McGahee

BAL

4

0.94

13.3

12.5

17

1

Brian Westbrook

PHI

3

0.94

23.1

21.8

1

 

For those in RBBC, like Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney, or Marion Barber and Julius Jones, you can assume their teammates have also had inflated fantasy numbers because of their soft schedule.

 

Lamont Jordan and Willis McGahee would not look nearly as impressive if they’d played an average set of opponents –but Brian Westbrook would still be #1 in FP/G.

 

Toughest Remaining Schedules

Running Backs

Rank

Player

Team

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

4

LaMont Jordan

OAK

16.8

14.4

1.13

12.8

14

-10

-4.0

3

Joseph Addai

IND

19.2

20.5

1.11

18.5

3

0

-0.7

2

Ronnie Brown

MIA

20.0

20.3

1.10

18.4

4

-2

-1.6

23

Steven Jackson

STL

9.7

10.5

1.10

9.5

26

-3

-0.2

24

Kevin Jones

DET

9.2

11.0

1.09

10.1

24

0

0.9

 

Jordan or whoever is running the ball in Oakland is about to get a rude awakening.  If his bad back (or Dominic Rhodes and Justin Fargas) hasn’t killed his value, trade Jordan now.  If you can’t get a fair return, you can expect Jordan to be a decent RB2 if healthy and not in a time share, but not to perform like he has through the first few weeks.

 

Joseph Addai, like his QB, will see a tough schedule.  He’ll still be very good but may see a slight dip in production.  The same is true of Ronnie Brown.

 

Add a tough schedule to Steven Jackson’s woes – although this includes at least one game that he won’t even play in.

 

Kevin Jones’ FP/G and the projections from them are obviously a little distorted.  But whatever he does for the remainder or the season, and however much work he gets, he still will have one of the harder schedules for RBs.

 

Easiest Remaining Schedules

Running Backs

Rank

Player

Team

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

8

Edgerrin James

ARI

14.8

18.7

0.94

19.8

2

6

5.0

16

Willie Parker

PIT

12.7

12.9

0.97

13.3

12

4

0.6

25

Larry Johnson

KC

9.0

11.2

0.99

11.3

19

6

2.3

30

Warrick Dunn

ATL

8.4

10.3

1.00

10.3

23

7

1.9

21

LenDale White

TEN

10.6

10.9

1.01

10.7

20

1

0.1

 

Edgerrin James has by far the easiest remaining schedule of the top RBs.  If he stays healthy and keeps performing as he has been, he could be a top 2 back.  Try to acquire him.

 

Willie Parker also faces pretty easy run defenses the rest of the way (remember, his 2nd game against the Ravens is Week 17 and not included in this rating).  So does Larry Johnson

 

The ATL and TEN RBBC, represented here by Warrick Dunn and LenDale White, have relatively easy schedules.  It’s a quirk of my method that they actually grade as average overall – but they are good compared to what other RBs will face.

 

Wide receivers obviously have a great deal of overlap with QBs in terms of toughest and easiest schedules:

 

Toughest Early Season Schedules

Wide Receivers

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

35

Marques Colston

NO

3

1.38

8.2

11.3

17

73

Lance Moore

NO

3

1.38

3.3

4.5

66

74

David Patten

NO

3

1.38

3.0

4.1

69

54

Dennis Northcutt

JAC

3

1.36

5.9

8.0

40

79

Kevin Walter

HOU

4

1.30

2.8

3.6

72

64

Josh Reed

BUF

3

1.28

4.8

6.2

52

71

Roscoe Parrish

BUF

4

1.28

3.5

4.5

67

84

Lee Evans

BUF

4

1.28

2.5

3.2

76

45

Vincent Jackson

SD

4

1.22

7.3

8.9

31

76

Craig Davis

SD

4

1.22

3.0

3.6

71

 

Marques Colston sure looks a lot better if you adjust his performance for his schedule.  The JAC and BUF receivers in particular are suffering from having played Denver early in the year.  I don’t own Lee Evans on any of my teams, although I was pretty high on him in pre-season, so I had to double check his numbers.  That is some kind of bad for a  pre-season consensus top 10 WR.

 

Easiest Early Season Schedules

Wide Receivers

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

31

Derrick Mason

BAL

4

0.76

8.7

6.7

48

65

Demetrius Williams

BAL

4

0.76

4.6

3.5

73

1

Randy Moss

NE

4

0.78

23.1

18.0

2

34

Wes Welker

NE

4

0.78

8.4

6.5

50

16

Santonio Holmes

PIT

4

0.80

11.9

9.5

27

55

Hines Ward

PIT

3

0.80

5.8

4.7

65

7

Braylon Edwards

CLE

4

0.83

15.4

12.8

13

43

Joe Jurevicius

CLE

4

0.83

7.4

6.2

53

3

Chad Johnson

CIN

4

0.87

16.9

14.6

9

4

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

CIN

4

0.87

16.6

14.4

10

 

Derrick Mason’s relatively good start has been heavily influenced by his easy schedule – he really hasn’t played that well if SoS is factored out.

 

Notice how dominant Randy Moss has been.  Take away those soft secondaries he’s faced and you’d reduce his scoring by 5 FP/G.  And he’d still be the 2nd best WR.  Take that schedule away from Wes Welker and he falls 16 places.

 

Braylon Edwards, Chad Johnson, and T.J. Houshmanzadeh have delivered stud WR numbers but would be merely very good if they played that way against average competition.  Santonio Holmes would fall from being a solid WR2 to a good WR3.

 

Looking forward, again the WRs parallel the QBs:

 

Toughest Remaining Schedules

Wide Receivers

Rank

Player

Team

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

33

Ronald Curry

OAK

8.6

8.2

1.17

7.0

45

-12

-1.6

36

Jerry Porter

OAK

8.1

7.7

1.17

6.6

51

-15

-1.5

45

Vincent Jackson

SD

7.3

8.9

1.13

7.9

38

7

0.6

13

Reggie Wayne

IND

12.2

12.4

1.12

11.1

17

-4

-1.1

46

Marvin Harrison

IND

7.3

7.4

1.12

6.6

50

-4

-0.7

8

Roy Williams

DET

14.4

13.6

1.10

12.4

13

-5

-2.0

18

Shaun McDonald

DET

11.4

10.8

1.10

9.8

26

-8

-1.6

22

Calvin Johnson

DET

10.5

9.9

1.10

9.0

30

-8

-1.5

51

Mike Furrey

DET

6.2

5.9

1.10

5.3

61

-10

-0.9

35

Marques Colston

NO

8.2

11.3

1.10

10.3

21

14

2.1

 

The Raider WRs have it rough (both KC and DEN have been tough on WRs so far, although KC has faced mostly weak WRs).  The Colts WRs also may see a dip in performance.  All of them might be trade bait if you are loaded at WR and need help elsewhere.

 

Vincent Jackson, like his QB, may actually get better despite a tough schedule because it’s still easier than it has been.

 

The Lions WRs have been a fantasy gold mine – they might just be silver from here on.  And Colston may be a valid WR2 for the rest of the year, but his schedule is still difficult.

 

Easiest Remaining Schedules

Wide Receivers

Rank

Player

Team

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

25

Torry Holt

STL

9.6

10.5

0.89

11.8

15

10

2.2

61

Isaac Bruce

STL

5.0

5.4

0.89

6.1

56

5

1.1

37

Chris Chambers

MIA

8.0

8.2

0.91

9.0

31

6

1.0

53

Marty Booker

MIA

6.0

6.1

0.91

6.7

48

5

0.7

24

Deion Branch

SEA

9.7

9.3

0.91

10.2

23

1

0.5

29

Bobby Engram

SEA

9.2

8.8

0.91

9.7

27

2

0.5

48

Nate Burleson

SEA

7.2

6.9

0.91

7.6

41

7

0.4

7

Braylon Edwards

CLE

15.4

12.8

0.93

13.9

11

-4

-1.5

43

Joe Jurevicius

CLE

7.4

6.2

0.93

6.7

49

-6

-0.7

60

Darrell Jackson

SF

5.1

5.3

0.93

5.7

58

2

0.6

 

Torry Holt, if he can get a healthy QB with some semblance of blocking, could take advantage of an easy schedule.  If you can find a disgusted owner unloading him cheap, it might be worth a gamble.

 

There’s lots of problems in Miami as well as St. Louis, but at least the WRs have an easy schedule.  Don’t look for them to light the world on fire, but they could help your team.

 

The Seattle WRs, on the other hand, have not only a good schedule, but a much better team situation and are better positioned to take advantage of their weak upcoming opponents.

 

Even though the Cleveland WRs have an easy schedule left in front of them, it’s harder than it has been and they may see a slight dip in their production.

 

Darrell Jackson’s QB situation is bad, and he has done little, but at least his schedule looks good.

 

As I said at the beginning, it’s very hard to tell how meaningful these SoS ratings are at this point.  I’ve given you some thoughts, but there is a lot to consider besides SoS in evaluating your players’ performance so far and expected output going forward.  As with all statistical analysis, there is judgment needed to knowing when to heed the numbers and when to disregard them.

 

The full data set:

 

Quarterbacks

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

1

Tony Romo

DAL

4

0.92

30.8

28.5

1

0.97

29.4

1

0

-1.4

2

Tom Brady

NE

4

0.85

27.1

22.9

6

0.96

24.0

2

0

-3.1

3

Carson Palmer

CIN

4

0.97

24.9

24.2

2

1.02

23.8

3

0

-1.1

4

Jon Kitna

DET

4

0.99

24.1

23.9

3

1.07

22.4

6

-2

-1.7

5

Brian Griese

CHI

1

0.97

23.1

22.4

7

0.98

22.8

4

1

-0.3

6

Brett Favre

GB

4

0.92

23.0

21.1

9

1.03

20.5

11

-5

-2.5

7

Derek Anderson

CLE

4

0.95

22.8

21.5

8

0.98

22.0

7

0

-0.8

8

Peyton Manning

IND

4

1.03

22.7

23.3

5

1.13

20.7

10

-2

-2.0

9

Jake Delhomme

CAR

3

1.08

21.8

23.6

4

1.04

22.6

5

4

0.8

10

Matt Hasselbeck

SEA

4

1.02

20.1

20.5

11

0.97

21.1

8

2

1.0

11

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

4

0.88

19.5

17.2

20

0.96

17.9

19

-8

-1.6

12

Daunte Culpepper

OAK

2

0.84

19.2

16.0

24

1.14

14.0

25

-13

-5.2

13

Chad Pennington

NYJ

3

0.96

18.5

17.7

17

0.96

18.4

14

-1

-0.1

14

Matt Schaub

HOU

4

1.16

18.2

21.1

10

1.01

20.8

9

5

2.6

15

Eli Manning

NYG

4

1.07

18.0

19.3

14

0.96

20.1

12

3

2.1

16

David Garrard

JAC

3

1.13

17.7

20.0

12

1.05

19.0

13

3

1.3

16

Jay Cutler

DEN

4

1.05

17.7

18.6

15

1.03

18.0

17

-1

0.3

18

Donovan McNabb

PHI

4

0.92

17.6

16.2

23

0.99

16.3

22

-4

-1.3

19

Trent Green

MIA

4

1.01

17.5

17.6

19

0.96

18.3

15

4

0.8

20

Joey Harrington

ATL

4

1.06

16.6

17.6

18

1.03

17.2

20

0

0.6

21

Vince Young

TEN

3

1.10

16.3

18.0

16

1.05

17.2

21

0

0.9

22

Philip Rivers

SD

4

1.20

16.2

19.4

13

1.08

18.0

18

4

1.8

23

Kurt Warner

ARI

2

1.09

15.8

17.2

21

0.95

18.1

16

7

2.3

24

Jason Campbell

WAS

3

0.90

15.7

14.2

25

0.98

14.5

24

0

-1.2

25

Josh McCown

OAK

3

0.84

15.1

12.6

30

1.14

11.0

33

-8

-4.1

26

Steve McNair

BAL

3

0.84

15.0

12.6

31

0.96

13.2

29

-3

-1.8

27

Damon Huard

KC

4

0.96

14.5

13.9

26

1.00

13.9

26

1

-0.6

28

Jeff Garcia

TB

4

0.97

13.7

13.3

27

1.04

12.8

30

-2

-0.9

29

Drew Brees

NO

3

1.23

13.4

16.4

22

1.08

15.2

23

6

1.8

30

Kelly Holcomb

MIN

2

1.02

12.6

12.8

29

0.97

13.2

28

2

0.6

31

Marc Bulger

STL

4

1.08

12.0

12.9

28

0.97

13.4

27

4

1.4

32

J.T. O'Sullivan

DET

1

0.99

10.5

10.4

34

1.07

9.7

36

-4

-0.8

33

Trent Edwards

BUF

2

1.14

10.2

11.7

32

0.95

12.4

31

2

2.2

34

Rex Grossman

CHI

3

0.97

10.0

9.7

36

0.98

9.9

35

-1

-0.1

35

Matt Leinart

ARI

4

1.09

9.9

10.8

33

0.95

11.4

32

3

1.5

35

Tarvaris Jackson

MIN

3

1.02

9.9

10.1

35

0.97

10.4

34

1

0.5

37

Kellen Clemens

NYJ

2

0.96

9.5

9.1

39

0.96

9.5

38

-1

0.0

38

David Carr

CAR

2

1.08

8.6

9.3

37

1.04

8.9

39

-1

0.3

39

Alex Smith

SF

4

1.10

8.4

9.2

38

0.97

9.5

37

2

1.1

40

Kyle Boller

BAL

3

0.84

7.7

6.5

43

0.96

6.8

42

-2

-0.9

41

Jeff Rowe

CIN

1

0.97

6.8

6.6

42

1.02

6.5

43

-2

-0.3

42

Trent Dilfer

SF

1

1.10

6.4

7.0

40

0.97

7.2

40

2

0.8

43

J.P. Losman

BUF

3

1.14

5.9

6.8

41

0.95

7.1

41

2

1.2

44

Brodie Croyle

KC

1

0.96

2.8

2.7

44

1.00

2.7

44

0

-0.1

45

Charlie Frye

CLE

1

0.95

1.8

1.7

45

0.98

1.7

45

0

-0.1

46

Gus Frerotte

STL

1

1.08

1.5

1.6

46

0.97

1.7

46

0

0.2

47

Luke McCown

TB

1

0.97

1.4

1.4

47

1.04

1.3

48

-1

-0.1

48

Brooks Bollinger

MIN

1

1.02

1.3

1.3

48

0.97

1.4

47

1

0.1

49

Jared Lorenzen

NYG

2

1.07

0.8

0.9

49

0.96

0.9

49

0

0.1

50

Kerry Collins

TEN

2

1.10

0.6

0.7

50

1.05

0.6

51

-1

0.0

50

Anthony Wright

NYG

1

1.07

0.6

0.6

51

0.96

0.7

50

0

0.1

52

Charlie Batch

PIT

3

0.88

-0.1

-0.1

52

0.96

-0.1

52

0

0.0

52

Seneca Wallace

SEA

1

1.02

-0.1

-0.1

53

0.97

-0.1

53

-1

0.0

54

Matt Gutierrez

NE

2

0.85

-0.2

-0.2

54

0.96

-0.2

54

0

0.0

54

Matt Cassel

NE

2

0.85

-0.2

-0.2

54

0.96

-0.2

54

0

0.0

54

Kevin Kolb

PHI

1

0.92

-0.2

-0.2

56

0.99

-0.2

56

-2

0.0

54

Brad Johnson

DAL

1

0.92

-0.2

-0.2

57

0.97

-0.2

57

-3

0.0

 

Running Backs

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

1

Brian Westbrook

PHI

3

0.94

23.1

21.8

1

1.09

20.1

1

0

-3.0

2

Ronnie Brown

MIA

4

1.02

20.0

20.3

3

1.10

18.4

4

-2

-1.6

3

Joseph Addai

IND

4

1.07

19.2

20.5

2

1.11

18.5

3

0

-0.7

4

LaMont Jordan

OAK

4

0.86

16.8

14.4

11

1.13

12.8

14

-10

-4.0

5

Marion Barber

DAL

4

0.90

16.8

15.2

9

1.06

14.4

10

-5

-2.4

6

Adrian L. Peterson

MIN

4

0.95

16.7

15.9

6

1.05

15.1

6

0

-1.6

7

Clinton Portis

WAS

3

1.02

15.0

15.2

8

1.05

14.5

8

-1

-0.5

8

Edgerrin James

ARI

4

1.26

14.8

18.7

4

0.94

19.8

2

6

5.0

9

LaDainian Tomlinson

SD

4

1.13

14.1

15.9

5

1.07

14.8

7

2

0.7

10

Travis Henry

DEN

4

0.99

13.6

13.5

14

1.09

12.4

15

-5

-1.2

11

Willis McGahee

BAL

4

0.94

13.3

12.5

17

1.02

12.3

16

-5

-1.0

12

Derrick Ward

NYG

4

1.18

13.2

15.6

7

1.01

15.3

5

7

2.1

13

Jamal Lewis

CLE

4

1.15

13.1

15.1

10

1.04

14.5

9

4

1.4

14

Marshawn Lynch

BUF

4

1.06

13.1

13.9

12

1.02

13.6

11

3

0.5

15

Frank Gore

SF

4

1.07

12.8

13.7

13

1.05

13.1

13

2

0.3

16

Willie Parker

PIT

4

1.02

12.7

12.9

16

0.97

13.3

12

4

0.6

17

Shaun Alexander

SEA

4

0.99

12.6

12.5

18

1.06

11.9

18

-1

-0.7

18

DeShaun Foster

CAR

4

0.95

12.0

11.4

19

1.09

10.4

21

-3

-1.6

19

Sammy Morris

NE

4

0.92

11.8

10.9

22

1.05

10.3

22

-3

-1.5

20

Rudi Johnson

CIN

3

1.20

11.0

13.2

15

1.08

12.3

17

3

1.3

21

LenDale White

TEN

3

1.02

10.6

10.9

23

1.01

10.7

20

1

0.1

22

Carnell Williams

TB

4

0.96

10.1

9.7

27

1.04

9.3

27

-5

-0.8

23

Steven Jackson

STL

3

1.08

9.7

10.5

24

1.10

9.5

26

-3

-0.2

24

Kevin Jones

DET

2

1.20

9.2

11.0

21

1.09

10.1

24

0

0.9

25

Larry Johnson

KC

4

1.25

9.0

11.2

20

0.99

11.3

19

6

2.3

26

Reggie Bush

NO

3

1.06

9.0

9.5

28

1.05

9.1

29

-3

0.1

27

Chris Brown

TEN

3

1.02

9.0

9.2

29

1.01

9.1

28

-1

0.1

28

Cedric Benson

CHI

4

1.02

8.8

9.0

30

1.09

8.3

32

-4

-0.5

29

Laurence Maroney

NE

3

0.92

8.4

7.7

37

1.05

7.4

37

-8

-1.0

30

Warrick Dunn

ATL

4

1.22

8.4

10.3

25

1.00

10.3

23

7

1.9

31

Earnest Graham

TB

4

0.96

8.3

8.0

36

1.04

7.7

35

-4

-0.6

32

Ahman Green

HOU

3

1.06

8.1

8.6

31

1.02

8.4

30

2

0.3

33

Sam Gado

HOU

1

1.06

8.1

8.6

31

1.02

8.4

30

3

0.3

34

Brandon Jackson

GB

3

1.24

7.9

9.8

26

1.01

9.6

25

9

1.7

35

Julius Jones

DAL

4

0.90

7.8

7.1

38

1.06

6.7

38

-3

-1.1

36

Thomas Jones

NYJ

4

1.09

7.5

8.2

35

1.08

7.6

36

0

0.1

37

Tatum Bell

DET

4

1.20

7.2

8.6

33

1.09

7.9

34

3

0.7

38

DeAngelo Williams

CAR

4

0.95

6.9

6.5

39

1.09

6.0

41

-3

-0.9

39

DeShawn Wynn

GB

4

1.24

6.7

8.3

34

1.01

8.2

33

6

1.5

40

Justin Fargas

OAK

4

0.86

6.7

5.7

47

1.13

5.1

49

-9

-1.6

41

Maurice Morris

SEA

2

0.99

6.3

6.3

41

1.06

5.9

42

-1

-0.4

42

Correll Buckhalter

PHI

4

0.94

6.3

6.0

44

1.09

5.5

45

-3

-0.8

43

Michael Pittman

TB

4

0.96

6.2

6.0

43

1.04

5.7

43

0

-0.5

44

Najeh Davenport

PIT

4

1.02

6.0

6.1

42

0.97

6.3

40

4

0.3

45

Mewelde Moore

MIN

2

0.95

5.8

5.5

48

1.05

5.3

47

-2

-0.5

46

Fred Taylor

JAC

3

1.04

5.6

5.9

45

1.08

5.4

46

0

-0.2

47

Ron Dayne

HOU

3

1.06

5.4

5.8

46

1.02

5.6

44

3

0.2

48

Jerious Norwood

ATL

4

1.22

5.3

6.5

40

1.00

6.5

39

9

1.2

49

Selvin Young

DEN

4

0.99

5.2

5.2

51

1.09

4.7

51

-2

-0.5

50

Maurice Jones-Drew

JAC

3

1.04

5.2

5.4

50

1.08

5.0

50

0

-0.2

51

Musa Smith

BAL

4

0.94

4.7

4.4

54

1.02

4.3

54

-3

-0.4

52

Kenny Watson

CIN

4

1.20

4.6

5.5

49

1.08

5.1

48

4

0.5

53

Leon Washington

NYJ

4

1.09

4.6

5.0

52

1.08

4.7

52

1

0.1

54

Ladell Betts

WAS

3

1.02

4.6

4.7

53

1.05

4.5

53

1

-0.1

55

Greg Jones

JAC

2

1.04

4.0

4.2

56

1.08

3.9

57

-2

-0.1

56

Mike Karney

NO

2

1.06

3.8

4.0

58

1.05

3.8

58

-2

0.0

57

Deuce McAllister

NO

3

1.06

3.6

3.8

59

1.05

3.6

59

-2

0.0

58

Chester Taylor

MIN

2

0.95

3.6

3.4

62

1.05

3.3

62

-4

-0.3

59

Jesse Chatman

MIA

3

1.02

3.6

3.7

60

1.10

3.3

60

-1

-0.3

60

Vernand Morency

GB

1

1.24

3.5

4.3

55

1.01

4.3

55

5

0.8

61

Kevin Faulk

NE

4

0.92

3.5

3.2

65

1.05

3.1

64

-3

-0.4

62

Reuben Droughns

NYG

4

1.18

3.5

4.1

57

1.01

4.1

56

6

0.6

63

Kenton Keith

IND

4

1.07

3.4

3.6

61

1.11

3.3

61

2

-0.1

64

Tony Hunt

PHI

2

0.94

3.4

3.2

66

1.09

3.0

66

-2

-0.4

65

Adrian Peterson

CHI

4

1.02

3.3

3.4

63

1.09

3.1

63

2

-0.2

66

Brian Leonard

STL

4

1.08

3.0

3.2

64

1.10

2.9

67

-1

-0.1

67

Cecil Sapp

DEN

4

0.99

3.0

3.0

68

1.09

2.7

69

-2

-0.3

68

Justin Griffith

OAK

4

0.86

2.6

2.2

74

1.13

2.0

77

-9

-0.6

69

Brandon Jacobs

NYG

1

1.18

2.6

3.1

67

1.01

3.0

65

4

0.4

70

Vonta Leach

HOU

4

1.06

2.4

2.6

71

1.02

2.5

71

-1

0.1

71

Lawrence Vickers

CLE

4

1.15

2.3

2.6

70

1.04

2.5

70

1

0.2

72

Mack Strong

SEA

4

0.99

2.3

2.3

73

1.06

2.2

74

-2

-0.1

73

Lorenzo Neal

SD

4

1.13

2.2

2.5

72

1.07

2.3

72

1

0.1

74

Michael Bennett

KC

4

1.25

2.2

2.7

69

0.99

2.8

68

6

0.6

75

Aaron Stecker

NO

3

1.06

2.0

2.1

78

1.05

2.0

76

-1

0.0

76

Jameel Cook

HOU

3

1.06

2.0

2.1

77

1.02

2.1

75

1

0.1

77

Heath Evans

NE

4

0.92

2.0

1.8

82

1.05

1.8

83

-6

-0.2

78

Ryan Grant

GB

1

1.24

1.8

2.2

75

1.01

2.2

73

5

0.4

79

Brian Calhoun

DET

4

1.20

1.8

2.2

76

1.09

2.0

78

1

0.2

80

Dwayne Wright

BUF

2

1.06

1.8

1.9

81

1.02

1.9

81

-1

0.1

81

Jason Wright

CLE

3

1.15

1.7

2.0

79

1.04

1.9

79

2

0.2

82

Michael Turner

SD

4

1.13

1.7

1.9

80

1.07

1.8

82

0

0.1

83

Leonard Weaver

SEA

3

0.99

1.6

1.6

84

1.06

1.5

84

-1

-0.1

84

Brad Hoover

CAR

3

0.95

1.5

1.4

85

1.09

1.3

86

-2

-0.2

85

J.J. Arrington

ARI

3

1.26

1.4

1.8

83

0.94

1.9

80

5

0.5

86

Tyson Thompson

DAL

4

0.90

1.4

1.3

87

1.06

1.2

87

-1

-0.2

87

Thomas Tapeh

PHI

3

0.94

1.3

1.2

88

1.09

1.1

88

-1

-0.2

88

Michael Robinson

SF

3

1.07

1.3

1.4

86

1.05

1.3

85

3

0.0

89

Kyle Eckel

NE

1

0.92

1.1

1.0

92

1.05

1.0

91

-2

-0.1

90

Le'Ron McClain

BAL

3

0.94

1.0

0.9

95

1.02

0.9

92

-2

-0.1

91

Maurice Hicks

SF

4

1.07

1.0

1.1

89

1.05

1.0

89

2

0.0

92

Michael Sellers

WAS

3

1.02

1.0

1.0

91

1.05

1.0

90

2

0.0

93

Reagan Mauia

MIA

1

1.02

1.0

1.0

90

1.10

0.9

93

0

-0.1

94

Tony Richardson

MIN

2

0.95

1.0

1.0

94

1.05

0.9

94

0

-0.1

95

B.J. Askew

TB

2

0.96

0.9

0.9

96

1.04

0.8

96

-1

-0.1

96

Jeremi Johnson

CIN

3

1.20

0.8

1.0

93

1.08

0.9

95

1

0.1

97

Travis Minor

STL

3

1.08

0.8

0.9

97

1.10

0.8

98

-1

0.0

98

Madison Hedgecock

STL

2

1.08

0.8

0.9

97

1.10

0.8

98

0

0.0

99

Justin Green

BAL

1

0.94

0.6

0.6

104

1.02

0.6

103

-4

0.0

100

Ahmard Hall

TEN

1

1.02

0.6

0.6

101

1.01

0.6

102

-2

0.0

101

Ahmad Bradshaw

NYG

2

1.18

0.6

0.7

100

1.01

0.7

100

1

0.1

102

Carey Davis

PIT

3

1.02

0.6

0.6

102

0.97

0.6

101

1

0.0

103

Marcel Shipp

ARI

4

1.26

0.6

0.8

99

0.94

0.8

97

6

0.2

104

Naufahu Tahi

MIN

2

0.95

0.6

0.6

103

1.05

0.5

104

0

-0.1

105

Mike Bell

DEN

2

0.99

0.5

0.5

105

1.09

0.5

106

-1

0.0

106

Luke Lawton

IND

3

1.07

0.4

0.4

109

1.11

0.4

110

-4

0.0

107

Darren Sproles

SD

4

1.13

0.4

0.5

108

1.07

0.4

108

-1

0.0

108

T.J. Duckett

DET

1

1.20

0.4

0.5

107

1.09

0.4

107

1

0.0

109

Anthony Thomas

BUF

3

1.06

0.4

0.4

110

1.02

0.4

109

0

0.0

110

Ovie Mughelli

ATL

2

1.22

0.4

0.5

106

1.00

0.5

105

5

0.1

111

Reno Mahe

PHI

3

0.94

0.4

0.4

111

1.09

0.3

111

0

-0.1

112

Moran Norris

SF

3

1.07

0.3

0.3

112

1.05

0.3

112

0

0.0

113

Terrelle Smith

ARI

3

1.26

0.2

0.3

113

0.94

0.3

113

0

0.1

114

Garrett Wolfe

CHI

2

1.02

0.2

0.2

114

1.09

0.2

114

0

0.0

115

Jason McKie

CHI

3

1.02

0.1

0.1

115

1.09

0.1

115

0

0.0

116

Nick Goings

CAR

3

0.95

0.0

0.0

116

1.09

0.0

116

0

0.0

117

Chris Massey

STL

1

1.08

0.0

0.0

116

1.10

0.0

116

1

0.0

118

Alvin Pearman

SEA

2

0.99

0.0

0.0

116

1.06

0.0

116

2

0.0

119

B.J. Sams

BAL

1

0.94

0.0

0.0

116

1.02

0.0

116

3

0.0

120

Dan Kreider

PIT

1

1.02

0.0

0.0

116

0.97

0.0

116

4

0.0

121

Rock Cartwright

WAS

3

1.02

0.0

0.0

116

1.05

0.0

116

5

0.0

122

Josh Scobey

BUF

1

1.06

0.0

0.0

116

1.02

0.0

116

6

0.0

123

Artose Pinner

ATL

2

1.22

0.0

0.0

116

1.00

0.0

116

7

0.0

 

Wide Receivers

Rank

Player

Team

G

SoS

FP/G

ADJ FP/G

ADJ RK

PRED SoS

PRED FP/G

PRED RK

CHG RK

CHG FP/G

1

Randy Moss

NE

4

0.78

23.1

18.0

2

0.96

18.7

2

-1

-4.4

2

Andre Johnson

HOU

2

1.30

22.1

28.7

1

1.06

27.1

1

1

5.0

3

Chad Johnson

CIN

4

0.87

16.9

14.6

9

0.96

15.2

8

-5

-1.7

4

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

CIN

4

0.87

16.6

14.4

10

0.96

14.9

10

-6

-1.7

5

Plaxico Burress

NYG

4

1.01

16.2

16.3

3

0.99

16.5

4

1

0.3

6

Anquan Boldin

ARI

3

1.00

16.0

16.0

5

0.95

16.9

3

3

0.9

7

Braylon Edwards

CLE

4

0.83

15.4

12.8

13

0.93

13.9

11

-4

-1.5

8

Roy Williams

DET

4

0.95

14.4

13.6

11

1.10

12.4

13

-5

-2.0

9

Steve Smith

CAR

4

1.14

14.0

15.9

6

1.02

15.7

5

4

1.7

10

Terrell Owens

DAL

4

1.10

13.7

15.1

8

0.98

15.5

6

4

1.8

11

Kevin Curtis

PHI

4

1.04

12.6

13.2

12

1.01

13.0

12

-1

0.4

12

Andre Davis

HOU

2

1.30

12.4

16.1

4

1.06

15.2

7

5

2.8

13

Reggie Wayne

IND

4

1.02

12.2

12.4

14

1.12

11.1

17

-4

-1.1

14

Greg Jennings

GB

2

0.91

12.2

11.1

18

1.08

10.3

22

-8

-1.9

15

Dwayne Bowe

KC

4

0.89

12.0

10.7

21

1.05

10.2

24

-9

-1.8

16

Santonio Holmes

PIT

4

0.80

11.9

9.5

27

0.94

10.1

25

-9

-1.8

17

John Broussard

JAC

1

1.36

11.5

15.6

7

1.04

15.0

9

8

3.5

18

Shaun McDonald

DET

4

0.95

11.4

10.8

20

1.10

9.8

26

-8

-1.6

19

Jerheme Urban

ARI

1

1.00

11.3

11.3

16

0.95

11.9

14

5

0.6

20

Laveranues Coles

NYJ

4

0.91

11.3

10.3

24

0.95

10.9

18

2

-0.4

21

Donald Driver

GB

4

0.91

11.0

10.0

25

1.08

9.3

28

-7

-1.7

22

Calvin Johnson

DET

3

0.95

10.5

9.9

26

1.10

9.0

30

-8

-1.5

23

Brandon Marshall

DEN

4

1.07

10.2

10.9

19

1.02

10.7

20

3

0.5

24

Deion Branch

SEA

4

0.96

9.7

9.3

28

0.91

10.2

23

1

0.5

25

Torry Holt

STL

4

1.09

9.6

10.5

23

0.89

11.8

15

10

2.2

26

Patrick Crayton

DAL

4

1.10

9.6

10.6

22

0.98

10.8

19

7

1.2

27

Jerricho Cotchery

NYJ

4

0.91

9.5

8.7

34

0.95

9.2

29

-2

-0.3

28

Joey Galloway

TB

4

0.93

9.4

8.8

33

1.08

8.1

36