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Draft Openings

by Mike Horn
Staff Writer, FantasyGuru.com
Published
, 8/13/08 
 

Last year I looked at drafts and league results from the World Championships of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) from 2004-2006 to see what draft strategies worked best (check out the archives if you want to see these articles). In this article, I’m going to update that analysis of draft openings with last year’s results.

 

WCOFF is a high stakes game costing $1750 to get into the live draft in Vegas, Atlantic City, Orlando, and Dallas. Winners of each 12-team league receive $7000 and entry into a total points championship bracket with the top team winning $300,000. There are also a wide range of on-line satellite leagues for lower entry fees that pay out free entry to next year’s WCOFF.

 

WCOFF teams start QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, D/ST, and a flex (RB/WR/TE). Roster size is 20. Scoring is: 4 points for a passing TD; 6 points for rushing/receiving TDs; 1 point for 20 passing yards; 1 point for 10 rushing/receiving yards; INTs= -1; and there’s 1 point per reception (PPR).

 

To prevent collusion, there is no trading. Waivers are done by blind bidding. The regular season leagues have 11 weeks of head-to-head play with a one week playoff between the team with the best record and the remaining team with the best point total. The league playoff winners plus wild card teams (highest regular season points from among the playoff game losers) go to the championship bracket. The championship round is a total points competition, with a team’s average regular season weekly score added to its totals from weeks 13-16. High score wins the major award; there are a number of other prizes.

 

What follows is most applicable to 12-team PPR leagues using WCOFF roster rules. The closer your league is to this format, the more you can apply the information I’m providing.

 

In doing my analysis, I’m going to use two measures of performance. First is the average Points For scored in the WCOFF regular season by owners that adopted a particular draft opening. The second is the percentage of teams using an opening that scored over 1500 regular season points. Why 1500? That score will usually earn a team a spot in the league championship game (LCG) (although that was less true in 2007, as overall scoring was up). Above average scores are important for consistency, but if you want to get into the championship game to win money (2nd place payouts – i.e. LCG losers – are $2500, which means you get back your fee and probably most of your expenses), you really want the best chance of getting a high score, not just an above average one.

 

Round 1 Openings

 

Here’s how WCOFF owners have used their top draft choice. The first three rows in the table show what teams had done in 2004-2006, then the next three reflect 2007’s drafts, and the final set is for all four years total (note that the draft results are available for only 67 of the 72 leagues in last year’s WCOFF, so there is a small amount of data missing from these tables).

 

Number of WCOFF Teams Using 1st Round Picks on an Opening

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

QB (2004-6)

 

 

 

 

5

2

2

3

2

4

4

7

29

RB (2004-6)

185

185

184

185

174

174

171

151

153

148

144

146

2000

WR (2004-6)

 

 

1

 

6

9

12

31

30

33

37

32

191

QB (2007)

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

2

3

2

2

11

RB (2007)

67

67

67

67

66

67

66

63

63

58

45

48

744

WR (2007)

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

3

2

6

20

17

49

QB

 

 

 

 

6

2

2

4

4

7

6

9

40

RB

252

252

251

252

240

241

237

214

216

206

189

194

2744

WR

 

 

1

 

6

9

13

34

32

39

57

49

240

Total

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

3024

 

In earlier seasons, about one-sixth of all teams drafting 8th through 12th took WRs in Round 1. In 2007, very few teams drafted receivers in slots 8 through 10, but over a quarter did at #11 and #12. A few more owners (percentage-wise) took QBs late in Round 1 in 2007 than in past years. Otherwise, as in the past, Round 1 was dominated by RB-drafting. The next chart shows average PF by draft pick and player chosen:

 

Average PF of WCOFF Teams by 1st Round Picks

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

QB (2004-6)

 

 

 

 

1266

1399

1281

1297

1346

1295

1290

1329

1308

RB (2004-6)

1444

1438

1388

1367

1382

1377

1348

1348

1348

1340

1333

1342

1374

WR (2004-6)

 

 

1432

 

1393

1344

1360

1332

1324

1361

1357

1361

1350

Average (2004-6)

1444

1438

1388

1367

1379

1376

1348

1345

1344

1343

1337

1345

1371

QB (2007)

 

 

 

 

1424

 

 

1416

1357

1484

1261

1326

1380

RB (2007)

1476

1395

1467

1393

1394

1411

1433

1379

1374

1376

1337

1345

1402

WR (2007)

 

 

 

 

 

 

1505

1353

1482

1415

1419

1379

1405

Average (2007)

1476

1395

1467

1393

1394

1411

1435

1379

1376

1384

1359

1353

1402

QB

 

 

 

 

1292

1399

1281

1327

1352

1376

1281

1328

1328

RB

1453

1427

1409

1374

1385

1386

1372

1357

1356

1350

1334

1343

1382

WR

 

 

1432

 

1393

1344

1371

1333

1333

1370

1379

1368

1361

Average

1453

1427

1409

1374

1383

1385

1371

1354

1353

1354

1343

1347

1379

 

Bold numbers w/green highlighting = above average PF compared to WCOFF as a whole for the appropriate period.

 

The first thing to note is that over the four years, drafting first is a substantial advantage (1453 average PF), followed by drafting second and third. Picking fourth is something of a curse, but in general, it’s better to draft sooner rather than later. The differences between #8 through #12 are pretty small.

 

But last year was different than most years. Teams with the #2 pick did not do very well (65 of 67 took Steven Jackson), far underperforming the third position (mostly Joseph Addai, taken 44 times). Also, the WCOFF average of 1402 was 31 points higher than in 2004-2006.

 

Overall, teams always draft an RB early in Round 1 and generally do better than average. In the middle of the round, a few teams have done well by drafting a WR or QB, but because so few owners have done this (refer to the first chart), it’s not that meaningful because one very successful team can distort the results. From pick 10 on, taking a WR seems to be a better strategy than drafting an RB – for example, in the 11 slot, teams starting off with a WR have averaged 1379 PF the last four years compared to 1334 PF for teams drafting an RB. This was especially true in 2007.

 

Technical note: Now it’s fair to state here that the difference between taking an RB and a WR at Pick 11, for example, does NOT meet the statistical definition of significance. The overall numbers do: taking an RB in Round 1 is almost certainly better than taking a QB. The bigger the number of teams using a particular opening, the more likely it is that the PF numbers are truly meaningful. Also, the differences overall between drafting 1st and 2nd are statistically significant, as are the differences between 2nd and 3rd. Statistically, drafting 4th through 6th are the same but worse than 3rd and better than 8th through 12th. For reasons not worth going into, the #7 slot is worse than 4th, the same as 5th, 6th, and 8th, but better than 9th and later. In the case where two teams took QBs with Pick 6, Round 1 and averaged 1399 PF, it’s probably meaningless from a statistical perspective. All-in-all, although the numbers I’m using here look like facts, in general they are better described as analogous to eyewitness evidence, which can also be valuable, but can be inaccurate. I’ll tell you what I see; you’re the jury, you decide.

 

The next table shows the percentages of teams scoring over 1500 PF by draft slot and player position chosen. You can see that 23% of all teams topped 1500 in 2007, compared to only 16% in the three years before that.

 

Percentage of WCOFF Teams Scoring >1500 PF by 1st Round Picks

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

QB (2004-6)

 

 

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

25

14

7

RB (2004-6)

37

31

22

13

16

11

11

10

11

8

8

8

16

WR (2004-6)

 

 

0

 

17

22

17

13

13

9

8

6

11

Average (2004-6)

37

31

22

13

16

12

11

10

11

8

8

8

16

QB (2007)

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

0

0

33

0

0

9

RB (2007)

42

15

37

16

24

31

32

10

17

19

9

15

23

WR (2007)

 

 

 

 

 

 

100

0

50

17

25

18

22

Average (2007)

42

15

37

16

24

31

33

9

18

19

13

15

23

QB

 

 

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

14

17

11

8

RB

38

27

26

14

18

17

16

10

13

11

8

9

18

WR

 

 

0

 

17

22

23

12

16

10

14

10

13

Average

38

27

26

14

18

17

17

10

13

11

10

10

17

 

Taking an RB in the 1st round not only leads to a higher average PF, it’s more likely to lead to a total over 1500 – but that’s driven by the advantage of taking an RB with the early picks. From Pick 6 on, if anything, there is an apparent advantage to taking a WR over an RB if you’re seeking a high score, although it is close enough that it is not statistically significant. The important thing is to get a good player who’ll perform up to his draft position.

 

Round 2 Openings

 

The next charts show the roll-up for the ten openings used in the 1st two rounds of WCOFF drafts, from most- to least-used in 2004-2006.

 

Draft Openings in 1st Two Rounds of WCOFF 2004-2006

POS

Total

Ave PF

% >1500

RB-RB

1112

1372

14

RB-WR

722

1375

17

RB-QB

157

1387

24

WR-RB

101

1354

15

WR-WR

81

1353

7

QB-RB

25

1312

8

RB-TE

9

1319

0

WR-QB

8

1278

0

QB-WR

4

1279

0

WR-TE

1

1340

0

Overall

2220

1371

16

 

Bold numbers w/green highlighting = above average compared to WCOFF as a whole.

 

Draft Openings in 1st Two Rounds of WCOFF 2007

POS

Total

Ave PF

% >1500

RB-RB

273

1393

21

RB-WR

416

1410

25

RB-QB

55

1381

16

WR-RB

24

1386

17

WR-WR

22

1426

32

QB-RB

9

1387

11

RB-TE

 

 

 

WR-QB

3

1406

0

QB-WR

2

1348

0

WR-TE

 

 

 

Overall

804

1402

23

 

Draft Openings in 1st Two Rounds of WCOFF 2004-2007

POS

Total

Ave PF

% >1500

RB-RB

1385

1376

16

RB-WR

1138

1388

20

RB-QB

212

1386

22

WR-RB

125

1360

15

WR-WR

103

1369

13

QB-RB

34

1332

9

RB-TE

9

1319

0

WR-QB

11

1313

0

QB-WR

6

1302

0

WR-TE

1

1340

0

Overall

3024

1379

17

 

Observations:

 

  • In 2007, RB-WR passed RB-RB as the most common opening – which is why they are highlighted (the same with RB-TE versus WR-QB). I kept them in the same order as the 2004-2006 table to make comparisons easier. RB-WR and RB-RB are the dominant choices.

  • RB-WR was much the better of the two in 2007 and somewhat better over the four years.

  • WR-WR had the best average PF and high scoring percentages in 2007, although it was a small sample (22 teams did it). Across all four seasons, it was less successful – although you need to compare it to the other options at a particular draft slot in the charts below.

  • WR-QB in 2007 is an example of what I call “just good enough to lose.” It produced above average PF (1,406) but no scores over 1,500. Only three teams drafted this way.

  • RB-QB remains a high scoring option over all four seasons, but it was a mediocre opening in 2007. I spent a long time in last year’s article discussing how these numbers were affected by Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper’s outstanding 2004 seasons. Most years, taking a QB this early has not been not a great move, although I’d certainly take Tom Brady in the 2nd round this season.

  • Taking a TE in the 2nd round is a bad idea, and no one did it in 2007.

 

If we look in more detail at these openings, do they favor certain draft positions? Here I’m going to show only 2007 and the four year totals.

 

Number of WCOFF Teams Using 1st Two Picks on an Opening, 2007

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

RB-RB

25

29

33

27

12

16

22

16

25

25

23

20

273

RB-WR

36

32

29

34

47

43

41

44

33

30

20

27

416

RB-QB

6

6

5

6

7

8

3

3

5

3

2

1

55

WR-RB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

2

2

12

6

24

WR-WR

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

3

7

10

22

QB-RB

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

1

2

2

2

9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WR-QB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

1

3

QB-WR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

67

804

 

The line below the top two most frequent openings just separates those from the less-used openings.

 

Number of WCOFF Teams Using 1st Two Picks on an Opening, 2004-2007

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

RB-RB

114

110

116

123

92

113

132

117

117

102

127

122

1385

RB-WR

103

110

106

107

128

110

93

87

81

88

58

67

1138

RB-QB

32

30

27

22

20

18

12

10

18

14

4

5

212

WR-RB

 

 

1

 

1

5

6

22

22

18

34

16

125

WR-WR

 

 

 

 

4

3

6

10

9

20

20

31

103

QB-RB

 

 

 

 

5

1

2

3

3

5

6

9

34

RB-TE

3

2

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

9

WR-QB

 

 

 

 

1

1

1

1

1

1

3

2

11

QB-WR

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

1

1

2

 

 

6

WR-TE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

1

Total

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

3024

 

Comments:

 

  • Before last year, almost every draft position was more likely to go RB-RB than RB-WR. In 2007, almost every draft position opted for RB-WR over RB-RB: taking a top WR in Round 2 has become much more popular.

  • There is much more variety in draft strategies among teams drafting late than among the top teams. Teams drafting 4th have only tried three different openings – I’m betting that will change this year as someone will draft Randy Moss or Tom Brady from the four slot.

Here’s the average PF for last year:

 

Average PF of WCOFF Teams by 1st Two Picks, 2007

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

RB-RB

1473

1397

1449

1421

1364

1409

1371

1374

1347

1389

1349

1319

1393

RB-WR

1483

1394

1486

1376

1405

1424

1473

1382

1394

1381

1318

1356

1410

RB-QB

1455

1394

1469

1364

1368

1342

1354

1379

1377

1209

1395

1544

1381

WR-RB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1281

1482

1451

1365

1408

1386

WR-WR

 

 

 

 

 

 

1505

1498

 

1402

1515

1356

1426

QB-RB

 

 

 

 

1424

 

 

1416

1488

1491

1261

1326

1387

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WR-QB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1382

1398

1440

1406

QB-WR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1225

1471

 

 

1348

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall

1476

1395

1467

1393

1394

1411

1435

1379

1376

1384

1359

1353

1402

 

Bold numbers w/green highlighting = best average PF opening for that draft position.

Bold numbers = above average PF opening for that draft position

 

Note the changed use in color scheme in the chart. A few points in 2007:

 

  • RB-WR was generally a good opening between draft positions #5 and #9.

  • Drafting #1-4, RB-WR or RB-RB had varying degrees of success.

  • Every draft position that tried WR-WR scored above average for its draft slot.

  • RB-RB did pretty poorly late in the draft order – a lot of the lower 1st round RBs disappointed last year.

For four years:

 

Average PF of WCOFF Teams by 1st Two Picks, 2004-2007

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

RB-RB

1449

1422

1399

1376

1388

1379

1358

1359

1361

1364

1336

1340

1376

RB-WR

1466

1425

1419

1373

1381

1400

1393

1355

1357

1348

1325

1354

1388

RB-QB

1429

1460

1434

1362

1397

1348

1364

1361

1318

1263

1386

1272

1386

WR-RB

 

 

1432

 

1554

1407

1354

1340

1336

1349

1361

1400

1360

WR-WR

 

 

 

 

1385

1253

1407

1328

1339

1387

1415

1350

1369

QB-RB

 

 

 

 

1323

1464

1281

1318

1394

1375

1281

1328

1332

RB-TE

1388

1306

1182

 

 

 

 

 

 

1364

 

 

1319

WR-QB

 

 

 

 

1262

1299

1254

1239

1230

1382

1342

1376

1313

QB-WR

 

 

 

 

1137

1335

 

1356

1225

1380

 

 

1302

WR-TE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1340

 

 

 

 

1340

Overall

1453

1427

1409

1374

1383

1385

1371

1354

1353

1354

1343

1347

1379

 

  • In most cases, RB-RB and RB-WR are about equal; at draft positions #1, #3, #6, and #7 RB-WR had a noticeable advantage.

  • Late in Round 1, taking a WR followed by another WR or an RB is a viable choice.

  • I think the key is to take the best player available and not worry too much about whether it’s an RB or a WR. Early in Round 1, that’s almost always an RB but after that it varies.

What about high scores?

 

Percentage of WCOFF Teams Scoring >1500 PF by 1st Two Picks, 2007

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

RB-RB

40

14

27

22

33

38

14

13

16

16

13

15

21

RB-WR

44

16

48

15

23

33

44

9

18

23

5

11

25

RB-QB

33

17

40

0

14

13

0

0

20

0

0

100

16

WR-RB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

50

0

8

33

17

WR-WR

 

 

 

 

 

 

100

0

 

33

57

10

32

QB-RB

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

0

0

50

0

0

11

RB-TE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WR-QB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

0

0

0

QB-WR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

0

 

 

0

WR-TE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall

42

15

37

16

24

31

33

9

18

19

13

15

23

 

Bold numbers w/green highlighting = best percentage of teams with >1,500 PF for that draft position.

Bold numbers = above average percentage of teams with >1500 PF for that draft position.

  • Drafting 1st-3rd, RB-WR was the best choice but RB-QB did pretty well.

  • Here, RB-RB was generally superior last year when picking 4th through 8th.

  • At the 10 and 11 slots, WR-WR was the way to get high scores in 2007.

  • At #12, the one team that drafted RB-QB did well, as did two of the six teams going WR-RB, and WR-WR did poorly.

 

Percentage of WCOFF Teams Scoring >1500 PF by 1st Two Picks, 2004-2007

POS

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

RB-RB

38

24

19

15

18

13

11

12

16

10

8

8

16

RB-WR

43

27

32

15

17

20

23

7

10

15

9

10

20

RB-QB

28

40

33

5

25

22

25

10

6

0

0

20

22

WR-RB

 

 

0

 

100

40

17

18

18

0

9

25

15

WR-WR

 

 

 

 

0

0

33

0

11

20

25

3

13

QB-RB

 

 

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

20

17

11

9

RB-TE

0

0

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

0

WR-QB

 

 

 

 

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

QB-WR

 

 

 

 

0

0

 

0

0

0

 

 

0

WR-TE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

0

 

 

 

 

0

Overall

38

27

26

14

18

17

17

10

13

11

10

10

17

 

For the last four years:

  • Drafting 1st-4th, RB-WR was consistently successful in posting high scores.

  • There has been enough success drafting WR-RB to make that a viable option, even a little better than WR-WR.

  • In no instance was RB-RB the best strategy for getting high scores.

The last chart on openings in the first two rounds rolls it all up from 2004-2007:

 

Number and Success of WCOFF Teams Using 1st Two Picks on an Opening, 2004-2007

 

Draft Position

 

POS

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Overall

RB-RB

114

110

116

123

92

113

132

117

117

102

127

122

1385

RB-WR

103

110

106

107

128

110

93

87

81

88

58

67

1138

RB-QB

32

30

27

22

20

18

12

10

18

14

4

5

212

WR-RB

 

 

1

 

1

5

6

22

22

18

34

16

125

WR-WR

 

 

 

 

4

3

6

10

9

20

20

31

103

QB-RB

 

 

 

 

5

1

2

3

3

5

6

9

34

RB-TE

3

2

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

2

 

 

9

WR-QB

 

 

 

 

1

1

1

1

1

1

3

2

11

QB-WR

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

1

1

2

 

 

6

WR-TE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

1

 

Green highlighting = above average for that draft position in both average PF and percentage of teams scoring over 1500 PF. The numbers reflect how many times that draft opening has been tried.

 

What I said last year still applies: Generally, a relatively often-used opening highlighted in green is a reliable option. If an opening is green but only been tried a few times, it might work in the future or it could just reflect good luck in the past. I wouldn’t avoid a popular opening just because it’s not green, but I’d better really have confidence in the players I’m drafting.

 

Round 3 Openings

 

The last stage of the opening rounds of the draft is Round 3. After this, variations get so complex and numerous that it will take several more years of WCOFF for me to have enough data to do any meaningful analysis. Through three rounds there are 31 total openings that have been used. The next chart shows all 31 from most- to least-used.

 

Draft Openings in 1st Three Rounds of WCOFF

 

Draft Openings in 1st Three Rounds of WCOFF, 2007

POS

Total

Ave PF

% >1500

 

POS

Total

Ave PF

% >1500

RB-RB-WR

724

1374

15

 

RB-RB-WR

164

1406

24

RB-WR-RB

550

1381

19

 

RB-WR-RB

179

1403

25

RB-RB-RB

487

1377

17

 

RB-RB-RB

85

1369

16

RB-WR-WR

458

1395

21

 

RB-WR-WR

207

1415

23

RB-QB-RB

110

1393

25

 

RB-QB-RB

24

1383

25

RB-RB-TE

96

1380

10

 

RB-RB-TE

16

1371

13

RB-QB-WR

85

1368

15

 

RB-QB-WR

24

1371

8

RB-RB-QB

78

1395

26

 

RB-RB-QB

8

1437

38

RB-WR-TE

73

1385

21

 

RB-WR-TE

19

1469

53

WR-WR-RB

72

1373

11

 

WR-WR-RB

17

1422

24

WR-RB-RB

64

1350

16

 

WR-RB-RB

10

1356

20

RB-WR-QB

57

1404

25

 

RB-WR-QB

11

1348

18

WR-RB-WR

43

1359

14

 

WR-RB-WR

11

1401

18

RB-QB-TE

17

1426

29

 

RB-QB-TE

7

1410

14

WR-WR-WR

16

1360

19

 

WR-WR-WR

3

1432

67

QB-RB-RB

15

1379

20

 

QB-RB-RB

6

1409

17

WR-RB-TE

13

1403

15

 

WR-RB-TE

3

1429

0

WR-WR-TE

12

1357

17

 

WR-WR-TE

2

1450

50

QB-RB-WR

11

1277

0

 

QB-RB-WR

1

1424

0

WR-QB-RB

9

1312

0

 

WR-QB-RB

3

1406

0

QB-RB-TE

8

1319

0

 

QB-RB-TE

2

1303

0

RB-TE-WR

5

1298

0

 

RB-TE-WR

 

 

 

WR-RB-QB

5

1376

20

 

WR-RB-QB

 

 

 

QB-WR-RB

4

1363

0

 

QB-WR-RB

1

1471

0

RB-TE-RB

3

1335

0

 

RB-TE-RB

 

 

 

WR-WR-QB

3

1352

0

 

WR-WR-QB

 

 

 

QB-WR-WR

2

1181

0

 

QB-WR-WR

1

1225

0

RB-TE-QB

1

1379

0

 

RB-TE-QB

 

 

 

WR-QB-TE

1

1299

0

 

WR-QB-TE

 

 

 

WR-QB-WR

1

1338

0

 

WR-QB-WR

 

 

 

WR-TE-WR

1

1340

0

 

WR-TE-WR

 

 

 

Overall

3024

1379

16

 

Overall

805

1402

16

 

Bold numbers w/green highlighting = above average compared to WCOFF as a whole.

 

Comments:

  • From the 4th-most to 5th-most frequent opening there is a big drop: 458 teams to 110. Then there are nine openings that were tried between 43 and 110 times.

  • The most popular opening, RB-RB-WR, is not particularly successful over all four years but it did pretty well in 2007.

  • The next most frequently used, RB-WR-RB, has been a better choice overall although it was essentially the same in 2007.

  • RB-RB-RB tops RB-RB-WR but not by a wide margin.

  • Of the big four openings, RB-WR-WR has proven to be the best. In 2007, it was the most used and although it didn’t beat the other two of the three in high scores, it had the best average PF.

  • RB-WR-QB was the best opening (1,404/25%) among those used more than 20 times for all four years, but it did poorly in 2007.

  • RB-WR-TE did surprisingly well in 2007 (1,469/53%) and has been a pretty good choice otherwise.

  • The openings that started WR-WR did well in 2007, regardless of whether it was followed by a RB, WR, or TE. WR-WR-RB remains a below-average strategy for 2004-2007 as a whole.

Here are the charts of three-round openings broken down by draft position for 2004-2007. These will look like the charts from the two-round openings, except much larger, and I’ve omitted the 2007-only charts because the sample sizes are so small. As already noted, there are the four most popular openings, a big drop, then nine openings used with some frequency (more than 20 times), and then the rest. I’ve used a solid line in the charts to set off those two sets of common openings and I’m going to call them the Big 4 and the Little 9.

 

Number of WCOFF Teams Using 1st Three Picks on an Opening, 2004-2007

Opening

Draft Position

Overall

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

RB-RB-WR

62

61

67

67

43

57

60

56

60

57

62

72

724

RB-WR-RB

32

48

64

59

46

54

47

42

38

45

35

40

550

RB-RB-RB

30

40

35

42

37

40

61

43

39

34

50

36

487

RB-WR-WR

52

53

37

35

62

39

38

38

31

33

20

20

458

RB-QB-RB

13

13

14

10

14

10

7

6

12

4

2

5

110

RB-RB-TE

6

4

6

8

7

14

7

14

12

7

8

3

96

RB-QB-WR

17

16

12

9

3

5

4

2

6

9

2

 

85

RB-RB-QB

16

5

8

6

5

2

4

4

6

4

7

11

78

WR-WR-RB

 

 

 

 

2

 

2

8

6

12

14

28

72

RB-WR-TE

7

4

4

3

11

11

6

6

8

10

1

2

73

WR-RB-RB

 

 

1

 

 

3

3

12

16

8

13

8

64

RB-WR-QB

12

5

1

10

9

6

2

1

4

 

2

5

57

WR-RB-WR

 

 

 

 

 

2

2

4

4

6

18

7

43

RB-QB-TE

2

1

1

3

3

3

1

2

 

1

 

 

17

WR-WR-WR

 

 

 

 

1

1

3

2

2

2

2

3

16

QB-RB-RB

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

2

1

3

3

4

15

WR-RB-TE

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

5

2

3

2

 

13

WR-WR-TE

 

 

 

 

 

2

1

 

1

5

3

 

12

QB-RB-WR

 

 

 

 

2

 

1

1

 

1

2

4

11

WR-QB-RB

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

1

1

1

2

2

9

QB-RB-TE

 

 

 

 

2

1

 

 

2

1

1

1

8

RB-TE-WR

2

 

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

5

WR-RB-QB

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

1

1

1

5

QB-WR-RB

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

 

2

 

 

4

RB-TE-RB

1

2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

WR-WR-QB

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

1

1

 

3

QB-WR-WR

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

2

RB-TE-QB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

WR-QB-TE

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

WR-QB-WR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

1

WR-TE-WR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

 

 

 

 

1

Grand Total

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

252

3024

 

Average PF of WCOFF Teams by 1st Three Picks, 2004-2007

 

Draft Position

 

Opening

1