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Post-Draft Rookie Report
by John Hansen
May 2, 2003

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1. Charles Rogers (WR, Det) – Rogers will be expected to be Steve Mariucci’s new Terrell Owens, but it won’t come easily and it won’t come quickly for the former Michigan State Spartan. Rogers knows it’s going to take some time, but he says it’ll be a game or two, not a month or two, before he makes his presence felt. You can call him cocky, but he’s more so confident. The Lions had zero reservations taking him with the #2 pick in the draft and claim that the masking technique he was accused of employing for his urine test was a non-issue, as was what some feel is a questionable character.
   
   Rogers should step in as the team’s #1 WR, so that’s a good thing. But with a young QB throwing him the ball, and in this complex system, with a ton of pressure on him, it probably will take the local product a month or two to get going. The good news is that he could get by initially on athletic prowess alone. Rogers is now one of the fastest receivers in the NFL, but the key in this offense is that he’s not afraid to go over the middle and catch the ball. And with that speed, he could take several short passes to the house this year.
   
   Rogers gets the edge over the man below him because of Mariucci’s track record and an offense that is further along and has a better supporting cast than that of the Houston Texans. I would be happy to take a chance on his upside in the middle rounds as my #3 WR, with the understanding that I will also need to take another solid #3 or #4 WR who is capable of starting for me if Rogers is slow off the mark. That’s not too much of a risk for a player capable of having the best season for a rookie WR since Randy Moss in 1998.
   
   Keeper League Value: It would be a major surprise if Rogers didn’t have a prolific pro career, so he’s an excellent keeper prospect. It’s rare that a rookie receiver has more long-term value than all the RBs in his draft class, but that could definitely be the case with Rogers.
    
2. Andre Johnson (WR, Hou) – When it comes to talent, opportunity, and supporting cast, Johnson is easily this year’s second best fantasy prospect. Johnson’s skills mirror those of Rogers, and the Texans, in fact, liked him better than Rogers. Like Rogers, Johnson will be paired with a young franchise QB in David Carr who, like Joey Harrington, will be a force at the position for years to come.
   
   The good news for Johnson’s fantasy value this year is that the Texans didn’t just draft him because he was the #1 player left on their draft board; they drafted him because his position was the team’s #1 need, period, so he’ll be expected to start and contribute right away. Johnson, often compared to Terrell Owens, has tremendous physical skills, is a great competitor, has a great pedigree, and already has a history of coming up big in the clutch. He will likely open the season as the starter alongside Corey Bradford and should have a little less pressure on him with the team employing frequent three-WR sets with Jabar Gaffney playing in the slot.
   
   Since the Texans have a ways to go on offense, and since he’s a rookie receiver, it would be unwise to draft Johnson with the expectation that he will be a starter for your fantasy team. But in the mid-to-late rounds, when all the available WRs start looking the same and you have at least two quality starters, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t take a flyer on this future star.
   
   Keeper League Value: It was a good sign the Texans focused on offense in the draft. It’s a clear sign that offense is a high priority for them. And with the talent they have at QB, WR, and TE, they are close to putting together the pieces of what should be a real good one. The prediction here is that Johnson will need only one year to develop and that he will start producing big totals in 2004, so snap him up if you can.
    
3. Bryant Johnson (WR, Ari) – In case you haven’t noticed, big and fast receivers are en vogue these days in the NFL. Johnson is another guy blessed with those attributes. But unlike Rogers and Johnson, he’ll have a tougher road to plow his rookie season. First of all, he’s still not the finished product, and his propensity for dropping passes could resurface in the NFL after he got the problem under control last year. In addition, he has only good, not great, speed. But most important, he’s on the Cardinals, a team with a so-so QB and an unimpressive offense overall.
   
   Johnson probably isn’t talented enough to be an NFL team’s #1 WR, but the reason he’s this high is because he could actually be the Cardinal’s top receiver this year, or at least a starter and the #2 guy. He’s not a tremendous deep threat, but he could emerge as the team’s top possession receiver and also as an active red zone target.
   
   Keeper League Value: The Cardinals have probably the best receivers coach in Jerry Sullivan, which is great news for Johnson. Johnson is certainly draftable in a keeper league because he should be starting in Arizona for a while. But when you look at his good – not great – potential and realize that he’s on the Cardinals, a slam-dunk pick does not he make.
    
4. Taylor Jacobs (WR, Was) – Will a great NFL receiver from Florida please stand up? It could be Jacobs. Of the other Florida receivers recently drafted, Jacobs is the most natural receiver, with a tremendous feel for the game and position. His hands, route running, and reliability are top notch, as are his sprinter’s speed and big-play ability. His downside is that he isn’t very physical and durability is a concern, but he still makes an excellent pickup for the Redskins, who prefer less physical receivers anyway.
   
   Because of his skills and familiarity with Steve Spurrier’s offense, Jacobs is a good bet to open the season as the team’s #3 WR. Normally, there’s nothing special about that, but in this pass-happy system, he could be a worthwhile pick as, say your #5 WR this year, assuming all goes well with him this summer.
   
   Keeper League Value: This is problem because the team has two young and very talented starting WRs, so Jacobs’ long-term value and, most important, upside in a keeper league is limited. On the other hand, he’s used to competing with NFL-caliber receivers, as he did his freshman year against Darrell Jackson, Reche Caldwell, and Jabar Gaffney. Even as the #4 or #3 receiver at Florida, he made an impact, so who knows? He could be a great keeper. Just don’t go overboard because he’s still, at best, the #3 guy here for the next few years.
    
5. Kyle Boller (QB, Bal) – There’s a big drop-off after the first two guys on this list, but there’s a huge one after Jacobs because not only is Boller nowhere near being a lock to start this year at any time, but he’ll probably also struggle if he does start. Boller has great size, a cannon for an arm, and he’s pretty mobile. His delivery improved with some good coaching last year, as did his pocket patience and decision-making. Brian Billick loves him, but he’s far from a finished product.
   
   The Ravens have made it clear that they do not plan to sign a veteran QB, so Boller will have to beat out only Chris Redman for the starting job. That’s not exactly a tough mountain to climb, which is why Boller is ranked this high. That and the fact that Boller does have the physical skills to excel early on in his NFL career. But the Ravens will run the ball a lot this year, and they’ll be more about defense than offense; plus, their receiving corps is average, so I’m not expecting much from Boller this year. Ranking him this high does speak volumes to the weakness of this year’s draft class, though.
   
   Keeper League Value: Boller is a high-upside keeper choice, but he also has a downside. He always had great potential in college, but not until his final season did he put it all together. I’d rank him 3^rd at the position for the long-term, behind fellow rookies Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich.
    
6. Larry Johnson (RB, KC) – Johnson is definitely a boom-or-bust type pick this year. If Priest Holmes is not in the picture because of his injury or possibly a holdout, he could definitely do well on this team. But if Holmes is all set come September and if FB Tony Richardson is ready to rock and roll, then Johnson, save for some special team’s duty, will be picking splinters out of his rear. The selection of Johnson, who last year rushed for 2,087 yards and 20 touchdowns, was deemed by team president Carl Peterson "a luxury pick, an insurance policy."
   
   Johnson is bigger and more powerful than Holmes, but he’s not as quick. Holmes is a better receiver, but Johnson can also catch the ball. The Chiefs obviously believe Johnson is a good fit for their offense or else they would have not invested a #1 pick in a player who could wind up being just a big insurance policy. He appears to be a good, but certainly not great, fit.
   
   Keeper League Value: This is definitely a tricky situation to deal with. If Holmes were completely out of the picture for some reason, Johnson would be a real good keeper league pick on this team. But considering the chances that Johnson could just be a backup the next 2+ years are good, keeper league owners shouldn’t draft him unless they don’t need him to produce right away and are prepared and able to stash him away.
    
7. Kelley Washington (WR, Cin) – Washington, a former high school QB and minor league baseball player, is a fantastic athlete. He was drafted in the 3^rd round and is expected to challenge for a starting job and/or playing time in three-WR sets with him and Chad Johnson on the outside and Peter Warrick in the slot. He’s a huge target who will present matchup problems with his size and speed; plus, his hands are good.
   
   But there are plenty of concerns with him. He’s coming off a serious neck injury, and there’s no telling if he’ll be ready to play full contact this summer. After spending four years in the Marlins’ minor league system, he’s not the most experienced player around. And there are some who don’t think he has the greatest attitude. But if all goes well for him this summer, he will be counted on to make an impact with the club this year, and he definitely has the potential to do so. Washington is another boom-or-bust type player this year, but the boom potential and his opportunity is enough to warrant his being this high on our preliminary rookie ranking list, at least for now.
    
8. Kevin Curtis (WR, Stl) – To regurgitate what our rookie expert, Tony Pauline, said in our pre-draft rookie report, Curtis may be the most complete receiver in this draft if one was to factor in football intelligence, pass-catching hands, and route-running abilities. A receiver who always finds the open spot in the defense, Curtis is as reliable as they come, and he even showed an element of speed to his game, with a recent 4.30 clocking during an individual workout.
   
   Curtis was drafted in the 3^rd round, but he’s not guaranteed playing time. He’ll have to beat out Troy Edwards for the slot receiver job and may also get competition from Arizona State receiver Shaun McDonald, who is similar to Az Hakim and who was drafted in the 3^rd round. But if Curtis can get a stranglehold on this #3 WR spot, there’s no question that he could be a surprise producer in this offense.
   
   Keeper League Value: It’s not that great. Curtis isn’t very big and is not very strong, so he’ll probably remain as only a #3 WR in the NFL. Still, a #3 WR who is excelling on the Rams could wind up being a decent keeper in larger leagues.
    
9. Brandon Lloyd (WR, SF) – Lloyd is one of the most natural pass catchers in this draft class. Tall with terrific hands, he always seems to get open and can sneak it downfield. Lloyd is also a talented red zone target, capable of pulling in TD passes with his long arms, leaping ability, and good concentration. He’s a polished receiver who should be capable of helping the 49ers right away.
   
   He’s in a good spot in San Francisco, in Dennis Erickson’s wide-open offense. Assuming for now that the team releases WR JJ Stokes, Lloyd has an excellent chance of being the team’s primary #3 WR. And if Tai Streets were dealt (unlikely now), he’d definitely play. Eventually, he should be a quality #2 NFL receiver.
   
   Keeper League Value: It’s probably a tad limited, since he’s probably not a #1 NFL WR and since Terrell Owens is still obviously the man here for now. But if a #2 WR in a productive passing offense is valuable to you, that’s exactly what Lloyd could be.
    
10. Jason Witten (TE, Dal) – Although he’s not likely to crack the starting lineup this year, he should play some, so he has sold value. Witten is the complete package. He’s big, strong, and fast. He’s a reliable pass catcher over the middle, but can also sneak it downfield on occasion and makes the long reception. Factor in the ability to dominate as a blocker, and you’re looking at future starter for the Cowboys for a long time.
    
    Keeper League Value: Given how involved the TE is in Bill Parcells’ offense, Whitten is well deserving of being the first TE drafted for keeper leagues. He should be starting by 2004.
     
11. Justin Fargas (RB, Oak) – The next three players on this list will need an injury to a starter to make a fantasy impact, but they play at a position in which injuries are common, and they all can play. We’ll start with Fargas, who is on the best team, the Raiders.
    
    Fargas has a ton of upside in the NFL. He is a slasher with an impressive combination of power and speed. Like Deuce McAllister, he’s a powerful runner fast enough to split out at WR. He really impressed NFL scouts at the combine, but the reason he was drafted in only the 3^rd round was because there are serious doubts about his ability to stay healthy, and he is still considered raw, especially his receiving skills. He’ll likely be the #3 RB this year but if he impresses and if starter Charlie Garner goes down, he could start over Tyrone Wheatley.
    
    Keeper League Value: If you typically draft project players or a player that lacks immediate but has good long-term value, Fargas is a good choice. Don’t expect much this year, but Charlie Garner is getting up there in age, so Fargas could easily be starting for the Raiders in 1-2 years. And he could be really good.
     
12. Musa Smith (RB, Bal) - The Ravens were stuck in 2001 when starting RB Jamal Lewis suffered a knee injury in training camp. To ensure that they are not stuck this year if Lewis again goes down, the Ravens selected one of the top-three backs in the draft in former Georgia Bulldog Musa Smith. Smith is a package of speed, explosion, and power. His hands are natural, and Smith, a fluid athlete, can be a one-man show and take over a game. He will need an injury to Lewis if he’s to make a big impact, but Lewis isn’t exactly Mr. Durability. If Smith is starting at some point on this team, he’ll do well.
    
    Keeper League Value: It’s not that great right now because Lewis has at least 3-4 big years left in him. Smith, himself, has some durability questions. It would be best to take a wait-and-see approach with him.
     
13. Carson Palmer (QB, Cin) – One trend we’re seeing in the NFL these days is teams that draft a QB very high getting their guy on the field very early in his career. Jon Kitna is the undisputed starter right now, but what if he gets into a long slump, something he’s done before, and the team starts off 1-6? What if the Bengals are pretty much out of it in late November? Palmer will probably play.
    
    Palmer is a tall and athletic passer who can stand in the pocket and make plays or do so on the move. He has a very good arm, is accurate, even down the field, and his decision making was excellent last year. He will need some time to develop, of course, but he’s going to be a good.
    
    Keeper League Value: He and Byron Leftwich are very close, but the edge has to go to Palmer because of his supporting cast. If rookie WR Kelley Washington is healthy and for real, Palmer may actually have the league’s top receiver trio as early as 2004 with Chad Johnson, Peter Warrick, and Washington. Those three could work wonderfully together and give opposing defenses fits. If you’re looking for a franchise QB who could be starting for you as early as 2004, Palmer’s your man.
     
14. Byron Leftwich (QB, Jac) – According to owner Wayne Weaver, the Jaguars "solved their quarterback position for the next 10 years'' by drafting Byron Leftwich. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for starter Mark Brunell. With Jacksonville coming off three consecutive losing seasons, and with Leftwich on the roster, Brunell’s time with the team is definitely coming to an end soon. The team isn’t ruling out the chance that Leftwich will play as a rookie, so he’ll almost definitely play some in the second half of the season if the team is out of the playoff hunt.
    
    Leftwich should be a phenomenal NFL QB. He’s smart, tough, and a good leader. He’s a huge passer with a very strong arm. Like Dan Marino, he has a quick release and is very accurate, so he should spend the next 10 years sitting back in the pocket picking NFL defenses apart. He’s not very mobile, but he’s certainly not a statue back there, either.
    
    Keeper League Value: Long-term, he could very well be the best QB in this year’s draft class, but the short-term problem is the team’s lack of quality at the WR position. WR Jimmy Smith is nearing the end, and the team doesn’t have a single receiver who we can legitimately say has a bright future in the league. That’s a problem, so Leftwich probably won’t do much his first two years. But when you draft a franchise QB the next thing you do is put players around him, so the Jags will definitely address the WR position in the next two drafts. Like Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb in 1999, Leftwich should come a little cheaper than he should in keeper leagues because he’ll open the season holding a clipboard. But the future will come quickly for this talented player.
     
15. Onterrio Smith (RB, Min) – Apparently, the Vikings just couldn’t pass on such a talented back. It’s actually a shame that the Vikings, a team that doesn’t have a short-term or long-term need for a starting RB, drafted Smith. Smith isn’t very big, but he plays larger than he is, and he’s a triple-threat player who beats opponents carrying the ball, catching it, or running back kicks. Combining instinct, explosion, and the speed not as good but comparable to starter Michael Bennett to run away from defenders, Smith displays franchise-type abilities and takes over games. But he has plenty of issues. Durability is a problem, as is maturity. The Vikings talked with him at length and they not only felt comfortable with him as a player and a person, but they also ranked him as the top back in the draft and as a 1^st round talent.
    
    This year, he’ll likely be only the #3 RB and the team’s primary kick returner. But if he’s tearing it up and if Bennett goes down, he could start over Moe Williams. If this all happens, then he’d be a must pickup because his upside would be great.
    
    Keeper League Value: Even more so than with (Musa) Smith keeper league owners need to take a wait-and-see approach with O. Smith. If he’s doing well in training camp and appears to have his character issues behind him, he’ll make a super high-upside pick for the long-term. But just keep in mind that Bennett is also very young and already proven, so Smith could be riding the pine for a while.
     
16. Anquan Boldin (WR, Ari) – Boldin is a little raw, but he’s a big, physical and athletic receiver with good speed, so his fantasy potential is obvious. The Cardinals are hoping he can be a possession guy like Frank Sanders, but he has the potential to be a little more than that if he can gain back all his speed (he had a major knee injury in 2001). There is definitely an opportunity for him to play plenty this year, but it’s too early to tell exactly what his role will be, since the Cardinal roster includes several promising young receivers.
    
    Keeper League Value: Keeper league owners tend to only keep premiere-type receivers, and it’s way too early to put Boldin in that class. At this point, he’s just a reach pick in a keeper league unless your looking at keeping 4-5 receivers or more.
    
17. Dallas Clark (TE, Ind) – Clark was an odd #1 pick for the Colts, but they definitely needed to get a viable TE to team with Marcus Pollard in the team’s two-TE sets. Last year, Pollard greatly missed the presence of Ken Dilger. Clark isn’t anywhere near the blocker that Dilger is, though, so the drafting of another pass-catching TE was a little odd that high. The bottom line, though, is that Clark will be on the field plenty, so he has some fantasy value.
    
    Keeper League Value: The Colts absolutely love Clark’s speed and athleticism. And with Pollard getting up there in age at 31, Clark has good potential in keeper or dynasty leagues.
     
18. Artose Pinner (RB, Det) – A bulky and powerful runner, Pinner’s stock dropped big time after he broke his left tibia and tore a ligament in the Senior Bowl. He’s still recovering from the injuries, and it’s not yet known if he’ll even be ready for training camp, so that’s obviously a concern. But for the Lions to take him in the 4^th round, #99 overall, they must have seen something in him they really liked. He doesn’t have great speed, but he has the potential to wear a defense down, so he could be an (only) okay fit for Steve Mariucci, who likes to run the ball as much as anyone. But for right now, he’s only #3 on the depth chart at best, and he’s coming off an injury, so he’s a longshot to make an impact this year.
    
    Keeper League Value: Again, since the Lions obviously see something they like in him, and since starter James Stewart’s days are numbered, Pinner has some value in deeper keeper or dynasty leagues.
     
19. Tyrone Calico (WR, Ten) – At least in terms of opportunity, Calico has good potential this year because the Titans have yet to find a permanent replacement for #2 WR Kevin Dyson. Calico has excellent size at 6’3", and he also has good speed. But he’s not a polished receiver and his hands are suspect, so he has a long way to go.
    
    Keeper League Value: With his physical abilities and opportunity, he’s a viable keeper prospect for those in larger leagues. But until he shows more consistency in all areas, he’s nothing more than a high-upside guy you may want to stash away in the hopes that he puts it all together down the road.
     
20. L.J. Smith (TE, Phi) – Andy Reid is hesitant to play young skill players, but Smith’s receiving skills should prompt him to get the Rutgers product on the field in his first season. Not known for his blocking, Smith is not only a reliable target, but he also has the speed to stretch the defense and make some big plays. He’ll learn the ropes from starter Chad Lewis this year and could have his moments. But this is a tough offense to pick up, so his real value is in keeper leagues.
    
    Keeper League Value: If Smith is doing well this summer and looks like the real deal, then he’ll make a real nice sleeper for those in keeper or dynasty leagues.

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