Fantasy Football Articles:

Fantasy Sports Magazine Expert’s Draft
by John Hansen
May 8, 2003

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Believe it or not, we’re only a few weeks away from the release of this year’s first fantasy magazine, Fantasy Sports Magazine. One of the highlights of that magazine each year is the results of their Expert League, which I am in. I was in four expert leagues last year and did well in three, but not this one. In fact, in two years, I have failed to make the playoffs in this league, so I am highly motivated to get off the shnide.

The draft is usually 12 teams, but they added two more this year, making it a 14-team league. The pickings get slim quickly in a 14-team league, but I think my draft went pretty well, all things considered. The draft, incidentally, was conducted Tuesday afternoon, May 6^th.

Before I get into the draft and my analysis, here’s an overview of the participants and the league rules.

Listed in order of draft pick:

1. Scott Engel, sportsline.com
2. John Hansen, fantasyguru.com (that’s me)
3. Steve Parker, CDM Fantasy Sports
4. Mike Fabiano, sportsline.com
5. Matt Pitzer, USA Today Sports Weekly
6. William Del Pilar, kffl.com
7. Mike Harmon, Yahoo Sports
8. Adam Caplan, footballinjuries.com
9. Matthew Berry, rotoworld.com
10. Brandon Funston, espn.com
11. Scott Pianowski, rotowire.com
12. Greg Ambrosius, Fantasy Sports Magazine
13. Brady Tinker, The Football Network
14. Tom Kessenich, Fantasy Sports Magazine

RULES

Fifteen rounds. You can select as many players as you like at each position, but you must have at least a minimum number of players at the designated starting positions.

Thirteen-week regular season. Byes are awarded to the two divisional winners (seven teams in each division) and four wild cards make the playoffs and square off in Week Fourteen. Semi-finals in Week Fifteen, and the Super Bowl in Week Sixteen.

STARTING LINEUPS:

• 1 Quarterback
• 2 Running Backs
• 2 Wide Receivers
• 1 Flex (1 RB, WR or TE)
• 1 Tight End
• 1 Kicker
• 1 Defense

• Passing Touchdowns: 4 points; 2 points for 2-point conversion
• Rushing/Receiving Touchdowns: 6 points; 2 points for 2-point conversion
• Defensive touchdowns: 6 points
• Special teams touchdowns: 6 points
• Field Goals: 3 points (30-39 yards); 4 points (40-49 yards); 5 points (50+ yards)
• Extra Points: 1 point
• Safety: 2 points
• Interceptions and fumble recoveries: 2 points each for the defense
• Sacks: 1 point

• 1 point for each 10 yards rushing and receiving
• 1 point for each 25 yards passing

ANALYSIS: Once Williams was taken, Tomlinson was a complete no-brainer. He’s as good as anyone else at the position; plus, he’s young and without any issues to worry about.

Round One Value Picks: Henry, Davis

1. Tom Kessenich - William Green, RB, Cleveland
2. Brady Tinker - Tiki Barber, RB, New York Giants
3. Greg Ambrosius - Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore
4. Scott Pianowski - Corey Dillon, RB, Cincinnati
5. Brandon Funston - Terrell Owens, WR, San Francisco
6. Matthew Berry - Charlie Garner, RB, Oakland
7. Adam Caplan - Curtis Martin, RB, New York Jets
8. Mike Harmon - Michael Bennett, RB, Minnesota
9. William Del Pilar - Eddie George, RB, Tennessee
10. Matt Pitzer - Randy Moss, WR, Minnesota
11. Mike Fabiano - Trung Canidate, RB, Washington
12. Steve Parker - Daunte Culpepper, QB, Minnesota
13. John Hansen - Eric Moulds, WR, Buffalo
14. Scott Engel - Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia

ANALYSIS: Amazingly, the highest-rated back remaining on my board was Troy Hambrick. I couldn’t take him with my second pick, so I had to take the best player. I was very tempted to take McNabb, but I knew I’d get a great QB later, which I did.

Round TWO Value Picks: Lewis, Owens, Moss, Culpepper, and McNabb

1. Scott Engel - Warrick Dunn, RB, Atlanta
2. John Hansen - Plaxico Burress, WR, Pittsburgh
3. Steve Parker - Tony Gonzalez, TE, Kansas City
4. Mike Fabiano - Kevan Barlow, RB, San Francisco
5. Matt Pitzer - Duce Staley, RB, Philadelphia
6. William Del Pilar - Rich Gannon, QB, Oakland
7. Mike Harmon - Antowain Smith, RB, New England
8. Adam Caplan - Troy Hambrick, RB, Dallas
9. Matthew Berry - Aaron Brooks, QB, New Orleans
10. Brandon Funston - Jeremy Shockey, TE, New York Giants
11. Scott Pianowski - Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis
12. Greg Ambrosius - Brett Favre, QB, Green Bay
13. Brady Tinker - Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh
14. Tom Kessenich - David Boston, WR, San Diego

ANALYSIS: In such a large league, I think it’s important, if you get stuck like I did at RB, to take the best player available. With 14 teams, talent is scarce, and you need as much of it as you can get. So instead of taking a so-so back, I took the top receiver on my board, Plaxico Burress. I actually considered Shockey here. An argument can be made that I took the second best receiver on the Steelers, but I disagree. Hines Ward is great, but he’s pretty much reached his potential. Burress was borderline great last year, but can get better. The deciding factor was the chemistry that he and Tommy Maddox had last year. I now have a stud back and two stud WRs – not too shabby for a 14-team league.

Round THREE Value Picks: Manning, Ward, and Boston

1. Tom Kessenich - T.J. Duckett, RB, Atlanta
2. Brady Tinker - Torry Holt, WR, St. Louis
3. Greg Ambrosius - Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay
4. Scott Pianowski - Joe Horn, WR, New Orleans
5. Brandon Funston - Jerome Bettis, RB, Pittsburgh
6. Matthew Berry - Laveranues Coles, WR, Washington
7. Adam Caplan - Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati
8. Mike Harmon - Peerless Price, WR, Atlanta
9. William Del Pilar - Anthony Thomas, RB, Chicago
10. Matt Pitzer - Amani Toomer, WR, New York Giants
11. Mike Fabiano - Amos Zereoue, RB, Pittsburgh
12. Steve Parker - Emmitt Smith, RB, Arizona
13. John Hansen - Stacey Mack, RB, Texas
14. Scott Engel - Koren Robinson, WR, Seattle

ANALYSIS: If you’re considering taking a WR with one of your first two picks in a 10 or 12-team league, pay close attention to what happened here. I had no choice; I had to take Mack here. I was hoping to have a chance to draft Thomas or Zereoue as my #2 back, but they went just before me, and Mack was the only starting back I thought had the slightest amount of upside. But look who I passed to take him: Koren Robinson. It’s the first draft of the year, so I was a little conservative. See me in August and I probably take Robinson and form a devastating WRs corps. If guys like Driver, Johnson, and Robinson are available in the 5^th round of a 14-team draft, then they’ll likely be there in the 6^th in a 10 or maybe even 12-team draft. There are about 17-18 quality backs this year, and then there’s a huge drop-off. Everyone will be taking those backs, and that’s why there will be quality WRs to take later. You take two of those backs and you’ll be more than fine at WR; trust me.

Round FOUR Value Picks: Driver, Johnson, Toomer, and Robinson

1. Scott Engel - Jerry Rice, WR, Oakland
2. John Hansen - Kurt Warner, QB, St. Louis
3. Steve Parker - James Stewart, RB, Detroit
4. Mike Fabiano - Jeff Garcia, QB, San Francisco
5. Matt Pitzer - Isaac Bruce, WR, St. Louis
6. William Del Pilar - Keyshawn Johnson, WR, Tampa Bay
7. Mike Harmon - Marty Booker, WR, Chicago
8. Adam Caplan - Rod Gardner, WR, Washington
9. Matthew Berry - Jimmy Smith, WR, Jacksonville
10. Brandon Funston - Michael Pittman, RB, Tampa Bay
11. Scott Pianowski - Derrick Mason, WR, Tennessee
12. Greg Ambrosius - Donte' Stallworth, WR, New Orleans
13. Brady Tinker - Trent Green, QB, Kansas City
14. Tom Kessenich - Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle

ANALYSIS: Here’s the key to my season. The two-time MVP 58 picks into the draft?

If Warner returns to form, I may not even need a second stud RB. And to make sure I have the Ram offense in my corner, I take Marc Bulger and probably guarantee 30 TDs from my QB this year. In a 14-team league, that’s good value. Also, notice the quality WRs still on the board 60+ picks into the draft. Please go RB early this year. And how about Matt Hasselbeck going this early? He’ll probably last much longer in a "regular" league. But hear this: If you get two stud backs, 2-3 excellent-to-very good receivers, and maybe a stud TE like Shockey or Heap in the first 5-6 rounds and then get Hasselbeck, there is a very good chance that you’ll have a fantasy season to remember for a long time. Hasselbeck could produce like a 2^nd-rounder this year.

Round FIVE Value Picks: Warner, Booker, Mason, and Stallworth

1. Tom Kessenich - Rod Smith, WR, Denver
2. Brady Tinker - Jerry Porter, WR, Oakland
3. Greg Ambrosius - Garrison Hearst, RB, San Francisco
4. Scott Pianowski - Darrell Jackson, WR, Seattle
5. Brandon Funston - Steve McNair, QB, Tennessee
6. Matthew Berry - Ladell Betts, RB, Washington
7. Adam Caplan - Curtis Conway, WR, New York Jets
8. Mike Harmon - Travis Taylor, WR, Baltimore
9. William Del Pilar - Todd Heap, TE, Baltimore
10. Matt Pitzer - Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets
11. Mike Fabiano - Chris Chambers, WR, Miami
12. Steve Parker - Tampa Bay Defense
13. John Hansen - Troy Brown, WR, New England
14. Scott Engel - Marcel Shipp, RB, Arizona

ANALYSIS: I targeted several players who went in front of me, for example, Heap. It would have been great to grab the only other stud TE to team with my other quality players (other than Mack). I would have also taken Smith, Porter, Conway, and Chambers. Yes, I have a weakness at my #2 RB spot, but (a healthy) Troy Brown as a #3 WR in a 14-team league is pretty good. Again, look at the quality wideouts available 70-84 picks into this draft. Get your two stud runners early.

Round SIX Value Picks: Smith, Porter, Conway, Heap, Chambers, and Brown

1. Scott Engel - Quincy Morgan, WR, Cleveland
2. John Hansen - Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City
3. Steve Parker - David Akers, K, Philadelphia
4. Mike Fabiano - Bubba Franks, TE, Green Bay
5. Matt Pitzer - Moe Williams, RB, Minnesota
6. William Del Pilar - Drew Bledsoe, QB, Buffalo
7. Mike Harmon - Mike Alstott, RB, Tampa Bay
8. Adam Caplan - Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Carolina
9. Matthew Berry - Charles Rogers, WR, Detroit
10. Brandon Funston - Correll Buckhalter, RB, Philadelphia
11. Scott Pianowski - Adrian Peterson, RB, Chicago
12. Greg Ambrosius - Marcus Pollard, TE, Indianapolis
13. Brady Tinker - Tom Brady, QB, New England
14. Tom Kessenich - Tommy Maddox, QB, Pittsburgh

ANALYSIS: Desperate times call for desperate measures. It was a reach, but I took whom I thought was the best high-upside back left on the board, Larry Johnson. I was playing it close to the vest for the most part, so I passed on safer guys like Moe Williams and Mike Alstott. If Priest Holmes is out of the equation for whatever reason, I’ll have a real good fantasy back in Johnson. I’m not in love with this pick, but I didn’t get hosed at TE, PK, or DT because of it, so I’m okay with it.

Round SEVEN Value Picks: Franks, Bledsoe, Muhammad, and Pollard

1. Tom Kessenich - Doug Jolley, TE, Oakland
2. Brady Tinker - Martin Gramatica, K, Tampa Bay
3. Greg Ambrosius - James Thrash, WR, Philadelphia
4. Scott Pianowski - Josh Reed, WR, Buffalo
5. Brandon Funston - Ashley Lelie, WR, Denver
6. Matthew Berry - Lamar Gordon, RB, St. Louis
7. Adam Caplan - Kerry Collins, QB, New York Giants
8. Mike Harmon - Shannon Sharpe, TE, Denver
9. William Del Pilar - Tai Streets, WR, San Francisco
10. Matt Pitzer - Zack Crockett, FB, Oakland
11. Mike Fabiano - Ed McCaffrey, WR, Denver
12. Steve Parker - Tim Brown, WR, Oakland
13. John Hansen - Randy McMichael, TE, Miami
14. Scott Engel - Alge Crumpler, TE, Atlanta

ANALYSIS: I have McMichael and Crumpler neck and neck and the deciding factor to me was all the people Crumpler will have to share the ball with. McMichael, on the other hand, should be a go-to guy of sorts in Norv Turner’s offense. I’m not too worried with his decline last year. He hit a rookie wall and wasn’t helped by Fiedler getting hurt and Jed Weaver getting a few short scores. He’s no longer a rookie, Fiedler is healthy, and Weaver is gone. McMichael is a nice value pick this year and here in this round.

Round EIGHT Value Picks: Collins, McMichael, and Crumpler

1. Scott Engel - James Mungro, TE, Indianapolis
2. John Hansen - Jamel White, RB, Cleveland
3. Steve Parker - Keenan McCardell, WR, Tampa Bay
4. Mike Fabiano - Joey Galloway, WR, Dallas
5. Matt Pitzer - Baltimore Defense
6. William Del Pilar - Javon Walker, WR, Green Bay
7. Mike Harmon - Kevin Johnson, WR, Cleveland
8. Adam Caplan - Patrick Ramsey, WR, Washington
9. Matthew Berry - Byron Chamberlain, TE, Minnesota
10. Brandon Funston - Shawn Bryson, RB, Detroit
11. Scott Pianowski - Billy Miller, TE, Houston
12. Greg Ambrosius - Philadelphia Defense
13. Brady Tinker - Ike Hilliard, WR, New York Giants
14. Tom Kessenich - Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis

ANALYSIS: Now that my starting lineup is essentially set, I’ll look to get any help I can at RB. White fits the bill because he could be a spot-starter for my team at any time and has a little bit of upside because he could be asked to be a spot starter for the Browns if William Green gets hurt.

Round NINE Value Picks: Galloway and Ramsey

1. Tom Kessenich - Lamont Jordan, RB, New York Jets
2. Brady Tinker - Kevin Faulk, RB, New England
3. Greg Ambrosius - Jake Plummer, QB, Denver
4. Scott Pianowski - Kordell Stewart, QB, Chicago
5. Brandon Funston - Antonio Bryant, WR, Dallas
6. Matthew Berry - Elvis Joseph, RB, Jacksonville
7. Adam Caplan - Jerramy Stevens, TE, Seattle
8. Mike Harmon - Olandis Gary, RB, Buffalo
9. William Del Pilar - Brian Finneran, WR, Atlanta
10. Matt Pitzer - Brad Johnson, QB, Tampa Bay
11. Mike Fabiano - Corey Bradford, WR, Houston
12. Steve Parker - Wayne Chrebet, WR, New York Jets
13. John Hansen - Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis
14. Scott Engel - Andre Johnson, WR, Houston

ANALYSIS: I wasn’t messing around with the Ram QB situation, so I snapped up Bulger fairly early. Good thing I did because Engel didn’t notice that I took Bulger one pick before and tried to draft him. Just like Trent Green in 2000, the backup Ram QB is easily the top backup in the league fantasywise.

Round TEN Value Picks: Bryant, Stevens, and Brad Johnson

1. Scott Engel - LaBrandon Toefield, RB, Jacksonville
2. John Hansen - Todd Pinkston, WR, Philadelphia
3. Steve Parker - Drew Brees, QB, San Diego
4. Mike Fabiano - Marc Boerigter, WR, Kansas City
5. Matt Pitzer - Dennis Northcutt, WR, Cleveland
6. William Del Pilar - Terry Glenn, WR, Dallas
7. Mike Harmon - New York Giants Defense
8. Adam Caplan - Derrius Thompson, WR, Miami
9. Matthew Berry - Jay Fiedler, QB, Miami
10. Brandon Funston - Jon Kitna, QB, Cincinnati
11. Scott Pianowski - Miami Defense
12. Greg Ambrosius - Najeh Davenport, RB, Green Bay
13. Brady Tinker - Deion Branch, WR, New England
14. Tom Kessenich - Carolina Defense

ANALYSIS: I’m not in love with Pinkston, but he’s a damn fine #4 WR in a 14-team league. He could easily start for me at some point. I did want the Panther defense and gambled that they’d be there another round, but they weren’t..

Round ELEVEN Value Picks: Pinkston, Boerigter, Fiedler, Panther defense

1. Tom Kessenich - Santana Moss, WR, New York Jets
2. Brady Tinker - Frank Wycheck, TE, Tennessee
3. Greg Ambrosius - John Carney, K, New Orleans
4. Scott Pianowski - Sebastian Janikowski, K, Oakland
5. Brandon Funston - Onterrio Smith, RB, Minnesota
6. Matthew Berry - Washington Defense
7. Adam Caplan - Aaron Stecker, RB, Tampa Bay
8. Mike Harmon - Joey Harrington, QB, Detroit
9. William Del Pilar - Mike Anderson, RB/FB, Denver
10. Matt Pitzer - Mikhael Ricks, TE, Detroit
11. Mike Fabiano - DeShaun Foster, RB, Carolina
12. Steve Parker - Marcus Robinson, WR, Chicago
13. John Hansen - Mike Vanderjagt, K, Indianapolis
14. Scott Engel - Robert Ferguson, WR, Green Bay

ANALYSIS: I feel I got great value for one of the best kickers in the league in Vanderjagt. His value is down off a down year and the comments he made about his teammates in January. But that’s why I got him cheaper, so I’ll take on his perceived lower value.

Round TWELVE Value Picks: Ricks, Vanderjagt

1. Scott Engel - Pittsburgh Defense
2. John Hansen - New England Defense
3. Steve Parker - Jay Feely, K, Atlanta
4. Mike Fabiano - Kelly Holcomb, QB, Cleveland
5. Matt Pitzer - Ryan Longwell, K, Green Bay
6. William Del Pilar - Dallas Defense
7. Mike Harmon - Paul Edinger, K, Chicago
8. Adam Caplan - Jason Elam, K, Denver
9. Matthew Berry - Antwaan Randle El, /WR, Pittsburgh
10. Brandon Funston - Jeff Wilkins, K, St. Louis
11. Scott Pianowski - Kenny Watson, RB, Washington
12. Greg Ambrosius - David Terrell, WR, Chicago
13. Brady Tinker - Kansas City Defense
14. Tom Kessenich - Adam Vinatieri, K, New England

ANALYSIS: I needed a defense and the good choices were dwindling fast. I think New England could be a pretty good one in this scoring system. Rosy Colvin and Rodney Harrison will definitely help with the sacks and turnovers; plus, they have talent elsewhere and good coaching.

Round THIRTEEN Value Picks: NE and Dal defenses, Elam

1. Tom Kessenich - D'Wayne Bates, WR, Minnesota
2. Brady Tinker - Brian Westbrook, RB, Philadelphia
3. Greg Ambrosius - Dominic Rhodes, RB, Indianapolis
4. Scott Pianowski - Maurice Morris, RB, Seattle
5. Brandon Funston - Seattle Defense
6. Matthew Berry - Tony Fisher, RB, Green Bay
7. Adam Caplan - Atlanta Defense
8. Mike Harmon - Aveion Cason, RB, Dallas
9. William Del Pilar - Jeff Reed, K, Pittsburgh
10. Matt Pitzer - Dorsey Levens, RB, New York Giants
11. Mike Fabiano - Morten Andersen, K, Kansas City
12. Steve Parker - David Patten, WR, New England
13. John Hansen - Musa Smith, RB, Baltimore
14. Scott Engel - David Carr, QB, Houston

ANALYSIS: There are still some decent players available at various positions, but I still need a lot of hope at RB, so I figured I’d take some shots with some high-upside backups. Musa Smith is arguably the best back in this year’s draft class (not including Willis McGahee). And if Jamal Lewis goes down, he’d be one heck of a sleeper. That’s just the type of player I need.

Round FOURTEEN Value Picks: Bates, Atlanta defense

1. Scott Engel - Doug Brien, K, New York Jets
2. John Hansen - Antwoine Womack, RB, New England
3. Steve Parker - Chris Brown, RB, Tennessee
4. Mike Fabiano - Oakland Defense
5. Matt Pitzer - Kevin Dyson, WR, Carolina
6. William Del Pilar - Justin Fargas, RB, Oakland
7. Mike Harmon - Peter Warrick, WR, Cincinnati
8. Adam Caplan - Kelley Washington, WR, Cincinnati
9. Matthew Berry - Olindo Mare, K, Miami
10. Brandon Funston - Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo
11. Scott Pianowski - Bill Schroeder, WR, Detroit
12. Greg Ambrosius - Jason McAddley, WR, Arizona
13. Brady Tinker - Dante' Hall, WR, Kansas City
14. Tom Kessenich - Chad Lewis, TE, Philadelphia

ANALYSIS: Staying with the same strategy I take a longshot in Womack, who missed all of last year while recovering from a knee injury. Keep an eye on this guy. The Patriots are clearly looking for a long-term option at RB and didn’t address the position in the draft. Womack could play fullback or tailback, and if he’s healthy this summer could vie for playing time.

Round FIFTEEN Value Picks: Dyson, Warrick, Mare, McAddley, and Lewis

My Roster:

QB – Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger
RB – LaDainian Tomlinson, Stacey Mack, Larry Johnson, Jamel White, Musa Smith, and Antwoine Womack.
WR – Eric Moulds, Plaxico Burress, Troy Brown, Todd Pinkston
TE – Randy McMichael
K - Mike Vanderjagt
D – New England Patriots

QB: Kurt Warner
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson
RB: Stacey Mack
WR: Eric Moulds
WR: Plaxico Burress
Flex: Troy Brown
TE: Randy McMichael
PK: Mike Vanderjagt
DT: New England

Overall Analysis: In a 14-team expert league, you’re not going to be stacked from top to bottom, and you’re going to have some holes. Unfortunately for me, because of where I drafted, mine’s at RB. I would have liked to have had a better #2 RB and then a guy like Mack to use as my flex, so I’m a little weak there. But overall, I think this is a real solid team, considering the size of the league. I could conceivably have six stud players in Warner (or Bulger if he gets hurt), LT, Moulds, Burress, McMichael, and Vanderjagt.

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