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	<title>Fantasy Guru Blog &#187; Ray Rice</title>
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	<description>In it&#039;s 4th year, FantasyGuru.com&#039;s John Hansen&#039;s Fantasy Football Blog</description>
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	<copyright>Copyright &#38;#xA9; Fantasy Guru Blog 2010 </copyright>
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		<title>Fantasy Guru Blog &#187; Ray Rice</title>
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	<itunes:summary>In it's 3rd year, FantasyGuru.com's John Hansen's Fantasy Football Blog</itunes:summary>
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		<title>RB Keeper Overviews</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/2010/03/27/rb-keeper-overviews-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/2010/03/27/rb-keeper-overviews-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Mar 2010 17:32:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Hansen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keeper & Dynasty Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Peterson]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Ray Rice]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/?p=752</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Note: Ages are accurate as of midseason 2010. </p>
<p>What’s interesting about this position is how watered down it is. Because so many backfield are utilizing two (even three) players in a rotation, the number of clear studs is low. And while there are more players these days than usual who do have some value now due to a fairly large role, they’re still in situations that prevent major fantasy production. We’ve also seen fewer legitimate developmental prospects at the position and a lot of players who are kind of in limbo, with little long-term potential and even questionable short-term potential.</p>
<p>I’ll start off this section with the (surprisingly few) players who are clearly slam-dunks for those in keeper leagues: Adrian Peterson (Min, 25), Steven Jackson (Stl, 27), Chris Johnson (Ten, 24), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac, 25), and Ray Rice (Bal, 23).</p>
<p class="wp-caption-text">It&#39;s probably a little early to proclaim Ray Rice as a legit fantasy stud for the long-term, but the guy was incredibly impressive in 2009 - and he&#39;s very young</p>
<p>These five players are clearly the cream of the crop, and with youth on their side. Rice may not be a legit top-5 overall RB over the next few years, as the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em><strong>Note</strong></em><em>: Ages are accurate as of midseason 2010. </em></p>
<p>What’s interesting about this position is how watered down it is. Because so many backfield are utilizing two (even three) players in a rotation, the number of clear studs is low. And while there are more players these days than usual who do have some value now due to a fairly large role, they’re still in situations that prevent major fantasy production. We’ve also seen fewer legitimate developmental prospects at the position and a lot of players who are kind of in limbo, with little long-term potential and even questionable short-term potential.</p>
<p>I’ll start off this section with the (surprisingly few) players who are clearly slam-dunks for those in keeper leagues: <strong>Adrian Peterson </strong>(Min, 25), <strong>Steven Jackson </strong>(Stl, 27), <strong>Chris Johnson </strong>(Ten, 24), <strong>Maurice Jones-Drew </strong>(Jac, 25), and <strong>Ray Rice </strong>(Bal, 23).</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 430px"><img class=" " src="http://www.fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/images/rayrice.jpg" alt="" width="420" height="263" /><p class="wp-caption-text">It&#39;s probably a little early to proclaim Ray Rice as a legit fantasy stud for the long-term, but the guy was incredibly impressive in 2009 - and he&#39;s very young</p></div>
<p>These five players are clearly the cream of the crop, and with youth on their side. Rice may not be a legit top-5 overall RB over the next few years, as the team should always look to work a bigger back into the mix. But he was so impressive in 2009 that he simply has to be in this elite realm, especially since he’s so young and versatile. Jackson’s window may be starting to close, but there have been zero signs of slowdown yet, and he should have a couple of peak seasons left in him. Their QB situation is worrisome, but the OL has been built up quite nicely.</p>
<p>The talent and fantasy potential and reliability does drop off a little after this group, but there are certainly still some really attractive options, such as <strong>Rashard Mendenhall</strong> (Pit, 23), <strong>DeAngelo Williams</strong> (Car, 27), <strong>Michael Turner</strong> (Atl, 28), <strong>Frank Gore</strong> (SF, 27), and <strong>Jonathan Stewart</strong> (Car, 23). Mendenhall does need to prove he can maintain a high level of play for another season, but if the Steelers get the best out of him, his potential on this good team is actually mind-blowing because he’s very talented. Williams will be a free agent in 2011, but if we’re in the same situation as we are next year with the CBA, he’ll be restricted again and won’t likely go anywhere. He has the obvious problem of playing with Stewart, but Williams is so damn good. He proved to be the real deal in 2009 coming off a dream 2008 season. I think he’s fantastic. Turner’s a guy who could fall off in a couple of years, but keep in mind his workload so far for a 28-year old has been minimal, so he probably still has a good amount of peak time ahead of him. Gore’s starting to build up a lot of touches in his career, and while injuries are a concern, he is still in his prime and should be fine if healthy the next two years at least. Stewart’s in the same boat as Williams. He’s unbelievably good, but in a timeshare. At least for those looking way down the road, that timeshare should extend both player’s careers. I brought that up while interviewing both Williams and Stewart on the radio last year – and they wholeheartedly agreed that the timeshare will extend their careers. Stewart is clearly a stud, and I’ll take my chances on a young stud in a keeper league, even with a timeshare situation.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 449px"><img src="http://www.fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/images/beaniewells.jpg" alt="" width="439" height="343" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Based purely on talent and youth, you could argue that Beanie Wells deserves to be considered a top-5 fantasy back for the long-term</p></div>
<p>While the players mentioned above appear to be the cream of the crop, there are certainly some other very appealing young backs still, such as <strong>Shonn Greene</strong> (NYJ, 25), <strong>Chris Wells</strong> (Ari, 22), <strong>Jamaal Charles</strong> (KC, 23), <strong>Knowshon Moreno</strong> (Den, 23), and <strong>LeSean McCoy</strong> (Phi, 22). They’re all very young and in very good situations, so while they aren’t certain slam-dunks, they’re desirable. Greene’s going to be the main ball-carrier on what should be a good team for years to come, but there are others here who will take touches away, at least for the short term (<strong>LaDainian Tomlinson</strong> and <strong>Leon Washington</strong>, of course). Wells on talent alone could be considered a top-5 keeper, but he has durability issues and his poor blocking should mean a steady role for <strong>Tim Hightower</strong>. But Wells has big upside. Speaking of upside, Charles has a ton of it, as evidenced by his ballistic run at the end of 2009. He’s certainly a very nice keeper, but I would just keep expectations realistic in case his lack of size prevents the team from truly committing to him like the Titans have committed to <strong>Chris Johnson</strong>. The signing of solid veteran <strong>Thomas Jones</strong> is a sign the team will be somewhat judicious with how they use Charles. Still, he’s a fine keeper given the juice he offers. Moreno’s a little bit of a tough call. He was solid at times last year and he’s a high pick who will get every chance to play a lot, but he also showed some limitations (and that he’s not special) and I’m concerned with injuries considering all the contact he takes. It’s also questionable where this team is going with their best wideout likely heading out of town and the QB situation not exactly good. Moreno needs to improve, bottom line, because he wasn’t good enough to stave off <strong>Correll Buckhalter</strong> last year, which is a bad sign. Buckhalter looks very much in the mix again this year, and head coach <strong>Josh McDaniels</strong> looks like a guy who has no qualms using a committee approach. But Moreno is far from a stiff, and he has youth on his side. McCoy certainly showed nice potential in his rookie year, and he should be even better in 2010. It’s great for him how they parted ways with <strong>Brian Westbrook</strong>, but he’s another guy who’s not exactly a lock to do well the next 2-3 years. At times last year, he didn’t look as quick and decisive as he did in college, so we’ll have to see if that was just his being hesitant and a little unsure of himself. But his role’s obviously expanding big time, even with veteran <strong>Mike Bell</strong> added.</p>
<p>There’s no question the talent and keeper potential drops a level after the aforementioned players. There are plenty of options, but they all have some sort of issue that appears prohibitive. You have players like <strong>Cedric Benson</strong> (Cin, 27), <strong>Ryan Grant</strong> (GB, 27), and <strong>Ronnie Brown</strong> (Mia, 28), at least, and they are relatively young and have large roles on their teams, so they are solid. You have players who have the talent to produce, but could be limited by a lack of touches, due to the presence of other players on their teams. Examples would be <strong>Matt Forte</strong> (Chi, 24), <strong>Fred Jackson</strong> (Buf, 29), <strong>Joseph Addai</strong> (Ind, 27), <strong>Marion Barber</strong> (Dal, 27), and <strong>Pierre Thomas</strong> (NO, 25). Each situation is different, so I’d look hard at these players’ ages, supporting casts, and offensive systems. Forte and Thomas do have youth working in their favor, while Addai and Barber are in good situations. Jackson’s very good, but he’s probably at best a high-end #3, unless the team fully commits to him, which is yet to be determined.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 460px"><img src="http://www.fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/images/felixjones.jpg" alt="" width="450" height="313" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Those looking to be proactive and aggressive should consider Felix Jones one of the best keeper prospects in the league because he has the potential to put up huge numbers if all goes well over the next 3-4 years</p></div>
<p>Next up, I like the group of young options who have active roles and should have them for years to come, like <strong>Felix Jones</strong> (Dal, 23), <strong>Steve Slaton</strong> (Hou, 24), <strong>Ahmad Bradshaw</strong>, (NYG, 24), <strong>Reggie Bush</strong> (NO, 25), and <strong>Darren McFadden</strong> (Oak, 23). Jones is clearly the best of the bunch, and he could even be considered a borderline stud in 7-8 months if he fully takes charge of this backfield. I’ve said for a while now that I think he could potentially be a “lead” back, and if he is and he stays healthy, look out. He actually has more upside than a guy like <strong>Jamaal Charles</strong> because he’s a bigger and better pure runner. Bradshaw’s a player, so he’s not a bad option at all as a 3<sup>rd</sup> back. Bush at least we know will always have a role, and while he’s frustrating, he does make plays. Slaton’s a bit of a wildcard, but at the worst, he should be a guy who gets 35-40% of his team’s touches – unless the Texans hit a homerun in the draft and nabs a productive power guy. As for McFadden, I’m not a fan, but he is very young. At some point, someone has to take advantage of his North-South running ability and solid receiving potential.</p>
<p>A player who doesn’t really have a group is <strong>Donald Brown</strong> (Ind, 23). He should be, at worst, an active complementary player – but he could be much more than that. He could be the guy in 1-2 years, so he’s very much worth hanging on to. He’s pretty thin and needs to show he can stay healthy, but he’s a very good runner and receiver, and he’s in a great situation.</p>
<p>There are some players next up who I don’t think will be major factors in 1-2 years, but who do have value for right now and could certainly prove me wrong and be top-30 backs over the next two years. <strong>Brandon Jacobs</strong> (NYG, 28), <strong>Jerome Harrison</strong> (Cle, 27), <strong>Cadillac Williams</strong> (TB, 28), and <strong>Ricky Williams</strong> (Mia, 33) are in this group. Although it’s hardly a lock he’s the lead guy for the next few years, Harrison probably also has the best to chance to surprise over the next few years, while Williams’ value could be nil this time next year, as he might retire. Jacobs and Willliams will have key roles heading into 2010, but they could quickly lose a ton of fantasy value due to injuries, wear and tear, etc. <strong>Thomas Jones</strong> (NYJ, 32) can be placed in this group as well.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 455px"><img src="http://www.fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/images/justinforsett.jpg" alt="" width="445" height="309" /><p class="wp-caption-text">He&#39;s probably never going to be a true lead guy, but Justin Forsett was very impressive last year and clearly has a lot to offer, so he&#39;s worth a shot</p></div>
<p>Getting back to the younger guys, we do still have some out there, but none are guaranteed expansive roles, and they could really go either way in the coming years. I do like <strong>Justin Forsett</strong> (Sea, 24) a lot, so he tops this group, but there’s no real indication the team views him as a major player in their backfield for the long-term, or that they really should (although he showed a lot in 2009). But at the very least, he should be a really nice complementary player. <strong>Kevin Smith</strong> (Det, 23) is coming off a serious knee injury and shoulder problems, but his biggest issue is his lack of dynamism. That could lead the team to look for an upgrade in the draft soon. <strong>Laurence Maroney</strong> (NE, 25) continues to fumble away his chances and clearly prevent the team from fully committing to him, and <strong>Tim Hightower</strong> (Ari, 24), while very solid, will always split time with Wells in Arizona. I’d put <strong>Michael Bush</strong> (Oak, 26) in this area as well. He may finally get a chance in Oakland now that <strong>Justin Fargas</strong> is gone. He hasn’t done enough to feel great about him, but on the other hand he’s definitely showed flashes. If he takes control over the “lead” role here, he could be a solid #3 fantasy back/flex starter for the next couple of years.</p>
<p>There’s another group of players who are all pretty young, but whose futures are really up in the air. <strong>LenDale White</strong> (Ten, 25), <strong>Leon Washington</strong> (NYJ, 28), <strong>Chester Taylor</strong> (Min, 30), <strong>Marshawn Lynch</strong> (Buf, 24), <strong>Jason Snelling</strong> (Atl, 26), <strong>Arian Foster</strong> (Hou, 24), <strong>Darren Sproles</strong> (SD, 27), and <strong>Jerious Norwood</strong> (Atl, 27) fall in here. Taylor’s going to have some value the next 2-3 years in Chicago, as will Washington wherever he is if healthy, so they are nice back-up types for a larger keeper league. Sproles and Norwood do have some upside, but they’re never going to command a lot of touches. White and Lynch are young and have a chance to resurrect their careers, but they might also continue to do nothing and their 2009 seasons don’t instill much confidence. Foster’s probably not going to be in this group after the draft, as the Texans are a good bet to draft a bigger back because at the end of the day, Foster’s “just a guy.”</p>
<p>Sticking with the younger players, at this point, you can’t truly count on the remaining options – but they’re probably worth stashing away due to their youth and, in many cases, their potential. <strong>Tashard Choice</strong> (Dal, 25) and <strong>James Davis</strong> (Cle, 24) are good example, and I really like Choice as a versatile football player. Eventually, he should get his chance. Davis could still be the guy in Cleveland. And while I know for a fact the team doesn’t really view him as a true lead back, <strong>Bernard Scott </strong>(Cin, 26) is very talented, so worth a shot. If you really want to dig deep and look at younger players, the guys to look at are <strong>Andre Brown</strong> (NYG, 23), <strong>Aaron Brown</strong> (Det, 24), <strong>Javon Ringer</strong> (Ten, 23), <strong>Rashad Jennings</strong> (Jac, 25), and <strong>Mike Goodson</strong> (Car, 23). Brown has a chance to replace <strong>Brandon Jacobs</strong> as their power back some day, the Lions like (Aaron) Brown and he has speed, Ringer’s a nice little back who could replace <strong>LenDale White</strong> as the #2 soon, Jennings has a chance to be an effective 1<sup>st</sup> and 2<sup>nd</sup> down back at some point, and Goodson is pretty darn dynamic and could eventually get an opportunity to play.</p>
<p>We’ve yet to cover some bigger names in the business, but that’s likely because their chances of helping you beyond 2010 are in serious question – and they’re hardly locks to contribute this coming year. Players like: <strong>Clinton</strong><strong> Portis</strong> (Was, 29), <strong>Willis McGahee</strong> (Bal, 28), <strong>Julius Jones</strong> (Sea, 29), <strong>LaDainian Tomlinson</strong> (NYJ, 31), <strong>Derrick Ward</strong> (TB, 30), <strong>Larry Johnson</strong> (Was, 30), <strong>Maurice Morris</strong> (Det, 30), and <strong>Willie Parker </strong>(FA, 29) are in this mix. It’s really hard to make a strong case for any of these options in a keeper league, but McGahee is still relatively young without a ton of wear and tear and in a good situation. Ward doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear and could conceivably carry the load for a decent spell (he’s set to split time with <strong>Cadillac Williams</strong> in ’10). Portis should split time with <strong>Larry Johnson</strong> in Washington this year, which is a killer because he’s nearing the end and probably has one good year left in him, if that. Jones is probably done in Seattle, and they should draft a back early in April. I’ll also throw <strong>Correll Buckhalter</strong> (Den, 31) and <strong>Earnest Graham</strong> (TB, 30) in here. Buckhalter at least looks like he has a role in Denver for another year at least, but Graham’s career appears to be in the toilet right now (through no fault of his own). But that guy’s pretty darn solid and it’s not inconceivable that he gets another chance somewhere, so he might be worth stashing away in a larger keeper or dynasty league.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 382px"><img src="http://www.fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/images/lexhilliard.jpg" alt="" width="372" height="428" /><p class="wp-caption-text">There really aren&#39;t many legit development prospects at the RB position out there right now, but Lex Hilliard could be someone to watch after a pretty impressive showing late in 2009</p></div>
<p>And this basically brings us to the bottom of the barrel at this position. I will start off by listing some younger players who have caught my eye and appear to at least have a chance, such as <strong>Chris Jennings</strong> (Cle, 24), <strong>Brandon Jackson</strong> (GB, 25), <strong>Lex Hilliard</strong> (Mia, 26), <strong>D.J. Ware</strong> (NYG, 25), <strong>Glen Coffee</strong> (SF, 23), and <strong>Mike Bell</strong> (Phi, 27). Bell’s a little older, but he has a role as a short yardage guy and can score TDs. I really liked what I saw from Hilliard, and he could be the #2 with <strong>Ronnie Brown</strong> in Miami soon. Jennings did look good in limited time in Cleveland, but there’s a logjam there, and he’s ultimately just a guy. I’m not that impressed with Coffee, but he could be a stop-gap guy for 1-2 years for the 49ers and at the least for now has value in case <strong>Frank Gore</strong> gets hurt. D.J. (formerly Danny) Ware is an intriguing prospect as well with his good power and receiving ability, but you could argue that he’s 4<sup>th</sup> in their pecking order at RB right now.</p>
<p>We’re left with very little at this point, so it’s best to look at players who either have youth or clearly defined roles for 2010. Options like <strong>Quinton Ganther</strong> (Sea, 26), <strong>Mewelde Moore</strong> (Pit, 28), <strong>Le&#8217;Ron McClain</strong> (Bal, 25), <strong>Kevin Faulk</strong> (NE, 34), <strong>Peyton Hillis</strong> (Cle, 24), <strong>Leonard Weaver</strong> (Phi, 27), <strong>Lynell Hamilton</strong> (NO, 25), <strong>LaRod Stephens-Howling</strong> (Ari, 23) and <strong>J.J. Arrington</strong> (Den, 27) at least have a chance. Moore has a chance to get consistent touches behind Mendenhall in Pittsburgh, but at this point he needs an injury to a starter to have a chance. Hillis could carve a niche in Cleveland was possibly a goal line back and 3<sup>rd</sup> down option. Faulk, Weaver, and Hamilton should have defined roles, at least.</p>
<p>I can’t say the same for <strong>Ryan Moats</strong> (Hou, 27), <strong>Sammy Morris</strong> (NE, 33), <strong>Ladell Betts</strong> (Was, 31), <strong>Justin Fargas</strong> (FA, 30), <strong>Fred Taylor</strong> (NE, 34), and <strong>Brian Westbrook</strong> (FA, 31). Betts is coming off a serious knee injury and could be done, while Morris and Taylor are well over 30 and in a committee. Fargas has some health issues, too. Moats is a decent prospect, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.</p>
<p>And finally, some more players who are at least young and at least deserve a mention: <strong>Brian Leonard</strong> (26), <strong>Kolby Smith</strong> (25), <strong>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</strong> (25), <strong>Gartrell Johnson</strong> (24), and <strong>Marcus Mason</strong> (26).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>We interrupt this vacation for a retirement</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/2009/07/14/we-interrupt-this-vacation-for-a-retirement/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/2009/07/14/we-interrupt-this-vacation-for-a-retirement/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:28:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Hansen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Demetrius Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derrick Mason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[L. J. Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mark Clayton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ray Rice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Todd Heap]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/?p=574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve been on vacation officially for less than 24 hours, since technically we just moved into the house I rented for the week Monday afternoon. I unpacked, spent $3712.27 at the Piggly Wiggly on food for the week, and went into the (80 degree) water.</p>
<p>And, of course, I didn&#8217;t have my blackberry with me to find out that Raven WR Derrick Mason retired.</p>
<p>Not a big deal, since it&#8217;s mid-July and I was able to throw up a twat on twitter shortly after the news broke (that shows up on the site, btw). But I do feel the need to break away from my supposed down time to cover this.</p>
<p>This is obviously a huge blow to the Ravens and for QB Joe Flacco. I love Flacco more than most, but I still put him on the &#8216;avoid&#8217; or &#8216;overvalued&#8217; list because I smelled a comedown season due to the fact that the team simply didn&#8217;t get him any help at receiver, plus I was still concerned with Mason&#8217;s health.</p>
<p>Now, Flacco&#8217;s receiving corps is perilously thin.</p>
<p>Of course, if Mason does stay retired, and I&#8217;m inclined to believe he will, the Ravens will likely sign a veteran, and they do have options, such [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve been on vacation officially for less than 24 hours, since technically we just moved into the house I rented for the week Monday afternoon. I unpacked, spent $3712.27 at the Piggly Wiggly on food for the week, and went into the (80 degree) water.</p>
<p>And, of course, I didn&#8217;t have my blackberry with me to find out that Raven WR <strong>Derrick Mason</strong> retired.</p>
<p>Not a big deal, since it&#8217;s mid-July and I was able to throw up a twat on twitter shortly after the news broke (that shows up on the site, btw). But I do feel the need to break away from my supposed down time to cover this.</p>
<p>This is obviously a huge blow to the Ravens and for QB <strong>Joe Flacco</strong>. I love Flacco more than most, but I still put him on the &#8216;avoid&#8217; or &#8216;overvalued&#8217; list because I smelled a comedown season due to the fact that the team simply didn&#8217;t get him any help at receiver, plus I was still concerned with Mason&#8217;s health.</p>
<p>Now, Flacco&#8217;s receiving corps is perilously thin.</p>
<p>Of course, if Mason does stay retired, and I&#8217;m inclined to believe he will, the Ravens will likely sign a veteran, and they do have options, such as <strong>Marvin Harrison</strong>, <strong>Matt Jones</strong>, <strong>Drew Bennett</strong>, <strong>Amani Toomer</strong>, etc. I think that&#8217;s what they do since again, I don&#8217;t see Mason pulling back from his retirement announcement. I&#8217;ve interviewed Mason on the radio and he takes his football very seriously. Always a consummate professional, I don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s the type of guy who&#8217;ll make such an important decision and change his mind. No matter what he says, I have to think the <strong>Steve McNair</strong> tragedy factored into this decision.</p>
<p>For now, let&#8217;s assume they Ravens don&#8217;t bring someone in. It&#8217;s obviously big news for WR <strong>Mark Clayton</strong>, who I&#8217;ve liked all off-season. He&#8217;s a very nice #2, but he&#8217;ll have to be their #1 most likely. I think he&#8217;s clicked very well with Flacco, something I spoke to the QB about on Sirius last December. The chemistry is there, so while Clayton&#8217;s not an elite guy, if the pass routes are clearly defined and somewhat simplistic as their run-heavy formations dictate coverages, Clayton should catch more passes, especially in a possession role. He&#8217;s now an excellent #3 fantasy receiver, which is good for me since I drafted him like 4 times already as my #4 in my expert leagues.</p>
<p>But the player who sees the biggest spike in value is clearly <strong>Demetrius Williams</strong>. Williams not only has the vertical ability they desperately need, he actually projects best as their #1 WR. He&#8217;s probably more talented than Clayton, although Clayton is very solid and is right now a better player. Williams has good size along with that deep speed, which is why he&#8217;s now a very legit sleeper. The team has been waiting for him to break out, and they&#8217;ve been very patient with him. He might have already by this point, but injuries have been a major, major problem. But if he&#8217;s healthy, he&#8217;s definitely a big-time sleeper this year, especially if they don&#8217;t bring in another receiver of note. If they don&#8217;t, a healthy Williams will start.</p>
<p>Next up, we have second-year receiver <strong>Marcus Smith</strong>, who really impressed in camp last year as a rookie. He didn&#8217;t catch a pass last year, but he definitely made an impression. Our own <strong>Adam Caplan</strong> was really impressed with him watching him in practice last summer, and he now has a great opportunity, especially if Williams continues to have injury problems. Like <strong>Anquan Boldin</strong>, he&#8217;s big, physical, is a great run- after-the-catch guy, and he runs good routes. He saw time as the #3 in camp last summer, so he&#8217;s been in this position before in training camp.</p>
<p>In addition to the impacts for these three WRs, there should still be some catches to account for, since a healthy Mason&#8217;s a lock for 80 catches. The TEs will have to step up, but the problem there is veterans <strong>Todd Heap</strong> and <strong>Little John Smith</strong> (funny, isn&#8217;t it?) will split production. I&#8217;m looking more for the RBs to see a boost in value, particularly <strong>Ray Rice</strong>, who should be their most active pass catcher. This move could mean 5-10 more catches for Rice, which could bump him a few spots (for now, even if give him 5 more catches and the yardage, he stays where he is).</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s how the other guys move on my board:</p>
<p>Clayton goes up to #30 WR from #36.<br />
Williams soars up to #64 from 83.<br />
Smith moves up to 101 from no man&#8217;s land.</p>
<p>By the way, I&#8217;m driving back to NJ on Monday; that&#8217;s about right for <strong>Brett Favre</strong> to sign. I&#8217;m thinking he&#8217;ll sign while I&#8217;m stuck in a parking lot (I-95) in Northern Virginia around mid-afternoon.</p>
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		<slash:comments>15</slash:comments>
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		<title>RB Keeper Overviews</title>
		<link>http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/2009/03/18/rb-keeper-overviews/</link>
		<comments>http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/2009/03/18/rb-keeper-overviews/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 19:38:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Hansen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Fantasy Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keeper & Dynasty Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adrian Peterson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ahmad Bradshaw]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Antonio Pittman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BenJarvus Green-Ellis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Jackson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Jacobs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Leonard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brian Westbrook]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cedric Benson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chauncey Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chester Taylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Henry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Perry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clifton Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clinton Portis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Correll Buckhalter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Ware]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darren McFadden]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darren Sproles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DeAngelo Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derrick Ward]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DeShaun Foster]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DeShawn Wynn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deuce McAllister]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dominic Rhodes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Earnest Graham]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edgerrin James]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felix Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Frank Gore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Jackson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fred Taylor]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Garrett Wolfe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.J. Arrington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jamaal Charles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jamal Lewis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerious Norwood]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jerome Harrison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Stewart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joseph Addai]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Julius Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Fargas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Forsett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kenny Watson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Faulk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kolby Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LaDainian Tomlinson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lamont Jordan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Larry Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Laurence Maroney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Le'Ron McClain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LenDale White]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Leon Washington]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marion Barber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marshawn Lynch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matt Forte]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Maurice Jones-Drew]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Maurice Morris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mewelde Moore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Bush]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Pittman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Turner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Hart]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Peyton Hillis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pierre Thomas]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rashard Mendenhall]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ray Rice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reggie Bush]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ricky Williams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ronnie Brown]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rudi Johnson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Grant]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Torain]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sammy Morris]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Selvin Young]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Slaton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steven Jackson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Duckett]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tashard Choice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tatum Bell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thomas Jones]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Hightower]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Travis Henry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Willie Parker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Willis McGahee]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Xavier Omon]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fantasyguru.com/blog/?p=402</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s been a few weeks since I broke out my QB Keeper Overviews here, and it&#8217;s already time to update them. But before I do that I&#8217;m going to try to bang out the other key positions within the next week and catch completely up.</p>
<p>Next up, it&#8217;s the RBs.</p>
<p>At first glance, while there is good depth, I notice a little bit of a void when it comes to true studs at the position. So if you&#8217;re in a keeper league that retains only 3-4 players, I advise your approach your keepers much like you should have been approaching a standard redraft league the last two years: don&#8217;t take a RB just because he&#8217;s a RB and take the best players, period. Keep in mind, of course, the pool of attractive options will increase after the draft.</p>
<p>That said about the lack of quality at the top, I&#8217;m personally ranking some young guys who I do think are for real very high, even though they&#8217;ve really only &#8220;done it&#8221; for one year.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s take a look at the top guys.</p>
<p>There aren&#8217;t many RBs who are clearly their team&#8217;s workhorse, so if you have one on your team, and he&#8217;s a young stud, then [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s been a few weeks since I broke out my QB Keeper Overviews here, and it&#8217;s already time to update them. But before I do that I&#8217;m going to try to bang out the other key positions within the next week and catch completely up.</p>
<p>Next up, it&#8217;s the RBs.</p>
<p>At first glance, while there is good depth, I notice a little bit of a void when it comes to true studs at the position. So if you&#8217;re in a keeper league that retains only 3-4 players, I advise your approach your keepers much like you should have been approaching a standard redraft league the last two years: don&#8217;t take a RB just because he&#8217;s a RB and take the best players, period. Keep in mind, of course, the pool of attractive options will increase after the draft.</p>
<p>That said about the lack of quality at the top, I&#8217;m personally ranking some young guys who I do think are for real very high, even though they&#8217;ve really only &#8220;done it&#8221; for one year.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s take a look at the top guys.</p>
<p>There aren&#8217;t many RBs who are clearly their team&#8217;s workhorse, so if you have one on your team, and he&#8217;s a young stud, then you keep him no matter what. <strong>Adrian Peterson</strong>, <strong>Steven Jackson</strong>, <strong>Michael Turner</strong>, and definitely <strong>Maurice Jones-Drew</strong> fall into this category. I am worried about Jackson&#8217;s situation, but he is a horse, no doubt.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 442px"><img src="http://www.fantasyguru.com/images/jonesdrew.jpg" alt="Despite a less-than-stellar situation, Maurice Jones-Drew is clearly one of the best keeper prospects in the league at the RB position. " width="432" height="327" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Despite a less-than-stellar situation, Maurice Jones-Drew is clearly one of the best keeper prospects in the league at the RB position. </p></div>
<p>Then I&#8217;d roll with those two young guys who have already proved to me that they are legit, and they are <strong>Chris Johnson</strong> and <strong>Matt Forte</strong>. Be happy if you have one of these guys in a keeper league. You can&#8217;t be much younger, and you can&#8217;t expect a rookie back to show more then these two did in 2008. Next up, we have some players who aren&#8217;t perfect in every way, but are still very young, talented, in a good situation, or all of the above. They are: <strong>Marion Barber</strong>, <strong>Joseph Addai</strong>, <strong>Frank Gore</strong>, and <strong>Ronnie Brown.</strong> Barber&#8217;s going to be solid the next 3-5 years by default given his nose for the goal. Addai isn&#8217;t a pure stud, but you have to love the situation, while Gore is still an elite talent and young enough, so he deserves the love, despite his injury issues and shaky situation. Brown&#8217;s still young, too, and his potential next 2-3 years seems high, now fully healthy. I think the Dolphins needs to focus more on their running game in 2009, and maybe they will with Brown having another full season to return to previous form (although he looked fine to me last year and actually told me in November he was, in fact, 100%).</p>
<p>Things already get a little tricky after these guys, and you next have some quality players who have a lot of wear and tear on them, so they can&#8217;t be trusted for more than 1-2 more years. However, things change so quickly in the NFL, so there&#8217;s a lot to be said for even one more productive season. So while <strong>Clinton Portis</strong>, <strong>LaDainian Tomlinson</strong>, and <strong>Brian Westbrook</strong> may fade away sooner rather than later, they are worth holding on after the aforementioned younger studs. All three will be integral parts of their offense this year, and they could easily be productive for another couple of seasons. Of the three, Westbrook would be the biggest concern in terms of quickly breaking down.</p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 442px"><img src="http://www.fantasyguru.com/images/mendenhall.jpg" alt="If you’re looking to go for the gusto and play to win, Steeler RB Rashard Mendenhall would be a great choice. " width="432" height="287" /><p class="wp-caption-text">If you’re looking to go for the gusto and play to win, Steeler RB Rashard Mendenhall would be a great choice. </p></div>
<p>Youth is a key factor for keeper leagues, of course, not only for the future, but also for the here and now. After all, a young back with fresh legs is always desirable right now. So the next group of players are mostly young, yet they have active roles right now, so they are desirable. <strong>DeAngelo Williams</strong>, <strong>Reggie Bush</strong>, <strong>Steve Slaton</strong>, <strong>Brandon Jacobs</strong>, <strong>Ryan Grant</strong>, <strong>Marshawn Lynch</strong>, and <strong>Jonathan Stewart</strong>. Some of these guys are more desirable than others, like Williams, Slaton, and Stewart, who are good choices for long-term upside. But they might not be as productive this year as Jacobs, Grant, or Lynch. Who you keep from this group has to do with your risk tolerance and expectations, as it typically does in keeper leagues.</p>
<p>My next group of players is also a mixture of (somewhat) safe options for the next 1-2 years and upside choices for the future. If I really wanted to play to win, for example, I&#8217;d find a way to retain a guy like <strong>Rashard Mendenhall</strong>, <strong>Felix Jones</strong>, <strong>Darren McFadden</strong>, or even <strong>Darren Sproles</strong>. I&#8217;m not a big McFadden fan, but I do think he&#8217;ll get a lot of touches, perhaps similar to how Bush does in New Orleans, and he does have the potential to make explosive plays and put up good yardage numbers as a runner and receiver. I love Mendenhall&#8217;s potential, and I think he could be THE sleeper at the position if we&#8217;re talking the next 2-3 years or more. Jones and Sproles will likely always share time, especially Sproles, but I love the juice they bring to the equation.</p>
<p><strong>Willis McGahee</strong>, <strong>Thomas Jones</strong>, <strong>Larry Johnson</strong>, <strong>LenDale White</strong>, and <strong>Derrick Ward</strong> should have value the next 1-2 years at least, so for now they look worthy. While <strong>Kevin Smith</strong>, <strong>Pierre Thomas</strong>, and <strong>Tim Hightower</strong> may not have big upside or a ton of value right now, all have a good chance to be their team&#8217;s lead back, so they are also very worthy.</p>
<p>Next up, some players you probably can&#8217;t rely on much longer than for 2009, but they are still worth consideration, especially in larger keeper or dynasty leagues. I&#8217;m talking about <strong>Willie Parker</strong>, <strong>Earnest Graham</strong>, <strong>Jamal Lewis</strong>, <strong>Cedric Benson</strong>, <strong>Julius Jones</strong>, <strong>Correll Buckhalter</strong>, <strong>Chester Taylor</strong>, and <strong>Fred Taylor</strong>.</p>
<p>Next I&#8217;d be looking at players who have the ability and potential in their current situations to surprise with more playing time/production than expected, like <strong>Fred Jackson</strong>, <strong>Jamaal Charles</strong>, <strong>Ryan Torain</strong>, and <strong>Tashard Choice</strong>. Or I&#8217;d settle for a younger player who is solid and should have value in a complementary role, like</p>
<p><strong></p>
<div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 458px"><strong><img src="http://www.fantasyguru.com/images/choice.jpg" alt="Although youll have to be patient with him, it can sometimes pay in a keeper league to acquire a guy who can flat out play, even if hes on the bench, and Choice can play" width="448" height="298" /></strong><p class="wp-caption-text">Although you&#39;ll have to be patient with him, it can sometimes pay in a keeper league to acquire a guy who can flat out play, even if he&#39;s on the bench, and Choice can play</p></div>
<p></strong><strong>Jerious Norwood,  Leon Washington</strong>, <strong>Ray Rice</strong>, or <strong>Le&#8217;Ron McClain</strong>.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re already about 50 deep here at RB, and it&#8217;s certainly hit-or-miss from here in terms of keeper league prospects. If I&#8217;m looking for some younger guys from here with some legit potential, then I&#8217;d like a guys like <strong>Michael Bush</strong>, <strong>Kolby Smith</strong>,</p>
<p><strong>Ahmad Bradshaw</strong>, <strong>Peyton Hillis</strong>, <strong>J.J. Arrington</strong>, <strong>Brandon Jackson</strong>, and <strong>Jerome Harrison</strong>. None are sure things, but a guy like Smith could actually be a &#8220;starter&#8221; relatively soon, and guys like Bradshaw, Arrington, and Harrison should have active roles as peripheral weapons. If I&#8217;m looking more for the short-term, then there are some viable options for the next 1-2 years, such as <strong>Maurice Morris</strong>, <strong>Sammy Morris</strong>, <strong>Ricky Williams</strong>, <strong>Edgerrin James</strong>, <strong>Justin Fargas</strong>, and <strong>LaMont Jordan</strong>. <strong>Laurence Maroney</strong> is still worth a shot this late, and <strong>Kevin Faulk</strong> is always worth something in PPR leagues.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re going deeper than this, you&#8217;re probably in a dynasty league and you&#8217;re looking for some players who have potential to grow into a more prominent role, and players like <strong>Danny Ware</strong>, <strong>Chauncey Washington</strong>, <strong>James Johnson</strong>, and <strong>Xavier Omon</strong> are decent options. Ware could be just a <strong>Brandon Jacobs</strong> injury away from starting for the Giants, while Johnson is a kid the Bengals like and kept on their practice quad this past year; he could factor into their mix soon. Washington could be the bigger back they use with MJD in Jacksonville, while Omon is a player the Bill do like.</p>
<p>Of course, there are still some veterans and some other younger guys who needs to be at least mentioned. Some of these guys are lost causes, but <strong>Chris Perry</strong> and</p>
<p><strong>Selvin Young</strong> are still pretty young, and <strong>Dominic Rhodes </strong>and <strong>Mewelde Moore</strong> are still productive but their roles are unclear.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s little hope for the rest of the RBs in the league, quite frankly, but if you&#8217;re still looking to add a prospect or two you should again look for the younger guys, such as <strong>Antonio Pittman</strong>, <strong>Mike Hart</strong>, <strong>Jason Wright</strong>, <strong>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</strong>, <strong>Brian Leonard</strong>, <strong>Garrett Wolfe</strong>, <strong>DeShawn Wynn</strong>, <strong>Chris Henry</strong>, <strong>Clifton Smith</strong>, and <strong>Justin Forsett</strong>.</p>
<p>I really don&#8217;t feel good listing any other young guys, but there will be a few guys who emerge as at least viable for fantasy teams that can keep 5-6 RBs, and I will list them here in subsequent updates of this article.</p>
<p>Otherwise, the bottom of the barrel veteran-wise would be guys like <strong>Kevin Jones</strong></p>
<p><strong>Deuce McAllister</strong>, <strong>DeShaun Foster</strong>, <strong>Chris Brown</strong>, <strong>Kenny Watson</strong>, <strong>Tatum Bell</strong>, <strong>T.J. Duckett</strong>, <strong>Michael Pittman</strong>, <strong>Rudi Johnson</strong>, and <strong>Travis Henry</strong>. Some of these guys aren&#8217;t even in the league officially, so you know we&#8217;re digging deep.</p>
<p>Next up, the WRs. I&#8217;ll post that Friday.</p>
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