I’m sure anyone looking at these projections has some questions or comments, and if you do on any of these players listed below feel free to chime in and I’ll do my best to address them.

Aaron Rodgers at #1 – I think it’s the right thing to do because of his running ability. That’s an element for fantasy he really has over the other elite players at the position. 115 rushes and 9 rushing TDs over the last two years is nothing to sneeze at. And I feel a heck of a lot better about the OL, which was the only concern for Rodgers in 2009. He did get in a funk last year, but after seeing him work himself out of it, he’s now officially elite in my eyes.

Kevin Kolb at #10 – It was a very tough call between and Jay Cutler for that 9th spot. [...]]]> In case you missed it, we put up our initial projections on Friday. It’s really early in the game and there’s a ton of uncertainty, but I thought it would make for an interesting post to submit some of the rankings that I’m most intrigued by and offer some reasoning behind them.

I’m sure anyone looking at these projections has some questions or comments, and if you do on any of these players listed below feel free to chime in and I’ll do my best to address them.

Aaron Rodgers at #1 – I think it’s the right thing to do because of his running ability. That’s an element for fantasy he really has over the other elite players at the position. 115 rushes and 9 rushing TDs over the last two years is nothing to sneeze at. And I feel a heck of a lot better about the OL, which was the only concern for Rodgers in 2009. He did get in a funk last year, but after seeing him work himself out of it, he’s now officially elite in my eyes.

Kevin Kolb at #10 – It was a very tough call between and Jay Cutler for that 9^th spot. Cutler got the edge because he’s obviously a more proven commodity, and I do like the emerging receivers here as well as Martz. But ranking Kolb at 10 is still somewhat ballsy, since he’s a first year starter. But as my last post explains, it needs to be done. If you get taxed heavily for INTs and enter your custom scoring, Kolb should come out higher than Cutler. Both will throw picks this year, but Cutler probably a few more.

Joe Flacco at #11 – I’m pretty confident Flacco’s going to be a solid starter this year. Everything is in place for a really nice season – good OL, running game, and improved receiving corps – and Flacco certainly has the talent to light it up if they chose to throw it a lot. They may run a fair amount, but Cam Cameron is more about the passing game. He’s another reason to like Flacco, Cameron is. And this is their third season together.

Chad Henne and Matthew Stafford at 18-19 – This is the kind of ranking for QBs you like, but you’re just not ready to go all in on them. Both have the talent to truly excel and are in good situations, but both are clearly unproven still. But I like both as nice upside-oriented backups.

Jason Campbell at #20 – Hey, what’s another new system to this guy? If they can protect, the Raiders will get things done on offense this year. Campbell’s receiving corps overall is probably better than it was in Washington this year. I especially love Zach Miller, who’s been my guy for a while (you just haven’t heard as much about him because of the poor QB situation). Also like Louis Murphy, who’s clearly better than Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas.

Mark Sanchez at #21 – I surprised myself when I rubber stamped this ranking, but our Greg Cosell made a good point about the Jets this year in that they clearly understand that points come out of the passing game and they must move the ball more consistently via the pass to become a championship team. That would explain the addition of WR Santonio Holmes. Sanchez has weapons for sure, and he also runs. It’s a fair spot for him.

Rashard Mendenhall at #6 – He scares me a little still, but you can’t deny he has a ton going for him in terms of youth and ability, and the Steelers should lean on him heavily. What really helps his projections is his receiving production, and his role in the passing game should be expanding. He’s riskier than Michael Turner, but with his receiving, Mendenhall has to be projected higher.

Ryan Mathews at #10 – Shades of Edge James from ’99 when we ranked him #9 overall despite being a rookie. We’ve studied Mathews on film and we’re convinced he’s a quality player whose skills will translate to the NFL really well. And as the workhorse back on a good team, we’re seeing very little downside with those fresh and young legs. 10^th at RB seems a bit over the top, but when he’s rushing for 80 yards a game and scoring most weeks, it’s going to see very reasonable.

Montario Hardesty at #21 – Pretty ballsy call, but we’re obviously projecting him to be their workhorse as well. Probably not as much as Mathews, but we like Hardesty’s tools and how he really looks like a starting RB in the NFL. Keep in mind Jerome Harrison put up massive numbers running behind this OL the tail end of 2009, which is encouraging. As for Harrison, also keep in mind he projects best as a situational guy, a fact pounded home by new football czar Mike Holmgren, who traded up into the 2^nd round to take Hardesty. Hardesty is the only back on the roster who Holmgren hand-picked. They drafted Hardesty to pound the ball in the running game to protect their QB, and he’s actually a pretty good receiver out of the backfield, so he might not give way a ton to Harrison (who will still be very active, of course).

Jonathan Stewart at #23 – We love the guy of course, but he is still dealing with a foot issue right now, and that’s been problematic for him, plus DeAngelo Williams is fantastic. Stewart will move up a few spots if he’s got a clean bill of health, but while his final numbers could easily reflect a #2 fantasy RB, it’s not a slam dunk that you can do well using him as your #2 all year in this timeshare. Tough call, as always.

Darren McFadden at #29 – That’s actually high for him, for us. But this is the year he’s finally going to get a chance with a legit QB and they should be catering the offense to his strengths more than ever. Not that we’re really high on him, but if he’s ever going to have success, this would be the year.

C.J. Spiller and Jahvid Best at 31 and 33 – Too early to tell, really, on both guys, and Best could actually pass Spiller if things are looking up for him. But the bottom line now is they guys look like upside picks who could also fizzle if not used properly. Kind of like what’s happened to Felix Jones up until the end of last year. We’ll also have to see if Marshawn Lynch is still on the Bill roster, and if Kevin Smith’s going to be ready for the season (he says he will be).

Miles Austin at #8 – I thought about this and while some are concerned about the addition of Dez Bryant, when the bullets are flying for real, I’d say Tony Romo’s going to be looking for his guy, and his guy is Austin, who proved to be a very complete receiver in 2009. He’s not thrilled with his contract situation, which could be a story to watch, but I’m still sold on Austin as a #1 fantasy WR.

Jeremy Maclin at #20 – I really like Maclin this year. I think he’s a more complete receiver than DeSean Jackson, and since he’s bigger and has a lot of experience going over the middle, he could surprise with his catch total as the Eagles move away from being mainly a big-play offense and become more of a traditional west coast offense. I think this bodes very well for Maclin.

Robert Meachem at #21 – This is high, and it may be too high because we’ve yet to see Meachem truly excel as a go-to guy. If he was asked to start on the outside from Day One in New Orleans, as many #1 picks are, he might be considered a bust right now. But the bottom line is he wasn’t, and as the season progressed last year we saw the Saints use him in a number of ways, which tells me they are (finally) getting comfortable with him. He has the tools to do very well, and he’s obviously in a great situation.

Devin Aromashodu at #27 – We’re going all in on this guy because we know they absolutely love him. He has the size they need, so he should start on the outside with Devin Hester. Granted, there are some quality receivers here, but this guy has the best chance to be Cutler’s go-to guy. Cutler loves throwing to guys with bodies around them, and the bigger guys tend to catch those types of passes. Plus, he can run.

Mike Wallace at #48 – I loved what I saw from him last year, but I’m not yet convinced he can be so effective seeing tougher matchups on the outside. I know he definitely has the potential to be a nice #2, but the matchups will be much tougher this year, and his QB is down 4-6 games.

Jermichael Finley at #3 – We just have to do it. We have a major man-crush on this guy and think the sky’s the limit. The guy runs like a wideout, and I loved the chemistry he showed with his QB in 2009. He was also extremely active and productive in the red zone. I envision him being their 2^nd option in the passing game this year, and love his upside.

Zach Miller at #8 – I’ve always liked this guy a lot (if you recall, we liked him way too much a couple of years ago), but he’s proven a lot, and now he has a real QB. He will be a major go-to guy.

Jared Cook at #19 – I’m guilty of becoming enamored with athletic freaks, and Cook’s a freak. He probably won’t have a breakout second season like Finley because of his QB, but Vince Young does check down to the TE quite a bit.

I’m sure I missed a few tough or questionable rankings, so feel free to chime in with questions and I’ll try to address them all.

Clearly, the Jets got Holmes at a major discount (the 155th pick of the draft) for a reason. Actually, it’s a few reasons. He has myriad of off-the-field issues the last five years, is in the final year of his contract and the Steelers don’t want to pay him, and he’s facing a 4-game suspension to start the 2010 season.

For the Steelers, they now have a need at WR. Third-year wideout Limas Sweed has been a major disappointment, and if he makes the team it’ll probably be only because Holmes was moved. He cannot be counted on, but this move will probably extend his stay and give him another chance to make an impact. Hines Ward’s 34 years old, so the Steelers don’t have much for the future. Look for them to draft a wideout in one of the first three rounds, perhaps in the 1st round. It will be interesting to see which WR they take. Dez Bryant with the 18th pick would be extremely tempting if he slides that far, [...]]]> It’s been a pretty wild offseason, and it got wilder late Sunday night, when the Steelers traded troubled wideout Santonio Holmes to the Jets for a 5^th round pick.

Clearly, the Jets got Holmes at a major discount (the 155^th pick of the draft) for a reason. Actually, it’s a few reasons. He has myriad of off-the-field issues the last five years, is in the final year of his contract and the Steelers don’t want to pay him, and he’s facing a 4-game suspension to start the 2010 season.

For the Steelers, they now have a need at WR. Third-year wideout Limas Sweed has been a major disappointment, and if he makes the team it’ll probably be only because Holmes was moved. He cannot be counted on, but this move will probably extend his stay and give him another chance to make an impact. Hines Ward’s 34 years old, so the Steelers don’t have much for the future. Look for them to draft a wideout in one of the first three rounds, perhaps in the 1^st round. It will be interesting to see which WR they take. Dez Bryant with the 18^th pick would be extremely tempting if he slides that far, but that would be a little risky given his potential attitude issues and their recent history with problem players. Demaryius Thomas could be a legit #1 down the road, but he’s a player who has tangible downside. Arrelious Benn is more about size and power than he is speed and might be a good fit. Golden Tate would also be a good fit. The good news for Pittsburgh is that this is a solid draft in terms of depth, so they should get a quality player even if they hold off on taking one in the 1^st round. My guess is they do not take a WR in the 1^st and instead address the position in the 2^nd or 3^rd round.

While there's no question Mike Wallace will see an expanded role in 2010 and now has some upside, fantasy players shouldn't assume he'll be able to step right into a featured role and enjoy consistent success

Ward is getting up there, and he’s taken a major pounding, but his value gets a nice boost with this Holmes move because there are now 79 catches and 1248 yards missing from their offense. Ward has excellent chemistry with QB Ben Roethlisberger and should be leaned on even more. If healthy all year, he should be a lock to catch 100+ passes this year. And certainly, second-year man Mike Wallace gets a major boost in value. Unless the Steelers draft someone like Bryant, Benn, etc. in the 1^st round, Wallace should be a good bet to replace Holmes in the starting lineup. Despite his fantastic success in 2009, it’s premature to believe Wallace will immediately grow into a starter role on the outside and enjoy consistent success. Keep in mind there’s a big difference between seriously challenging a defense as a #3, as Wallace did last year, and consistently producing as a starter on the outside. His weekly matchups will be much tougher, as he often worked against nickel or dime corners last year. But Wallace has enough size at 6’0” to excel as a featured receiver and he’s proven to be a nice deep threat. I probably wouldn’t rely on him as my #3, but he should be a very good pick for depth in 2010. If Wallace is moved into the starting lineup, the Steelers can then slide Antwaan Randle-El right back into the slot, so they are in good shape there. Veteran Arnaz Battle can also play the slot and fill in for Ward if he goes down, so it looks like the Steelers were preparing to rid themselves of Holmes for a little while now and picked up Randle-El and Battle in free agency preparing for a move. Trading Holmes should also help TE Heath Miller’s value. Holmes was a frequent target in the middle of the field, and Miller’s role should expand a bit in the intermediate area. This move should solidify Miller as a viable fantasy starter in 2010. The one player whose value does take a hit is Roethlisberger. Holmes may not have been a fantasy juggernaut in 2009, but he was pretty damn good, and while he did have a few lapses in concentration at times, he was pretty consistent in terms of his production. Roethlisberger has always looked for Holmes when he was in trouble, and he will miss that playmaking safety valve.

Added: This move should be good news for RB Rashard Mendenhall. The Steelers want to run the ball more anyway, and there should be even more reason to look to pound the ball on the ground with a high-end receiver in Holmes out of the mix. Mendenhall is very talented, young, and capable of carrying the offense more so than he did last year. He’s a little scary in that he’s not a player who always showcases his best and fumbles, but I still think he’s a really nice pick this year late in the 1st round, and one with little downside if healthy. It’s time for OC Bruce Arians to pound the rock more.

As for the Jets, I have to go back to my old theory about the offseason in the NFL: if something seems too good to be true, it probably is. Now the Jets have a legit Pro Bowl caliber receiver in Holmes to team with Jericho Cotchery, Braylon Edwards, and Dustin Keller, not to mention three quality backs in Shonn Greene, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Leon Washington, assuming Washington is healthy.

On the surface, things are looking up for the Jet offense, but I wouldn’t expect the world. There are potential headaches here with Edwards, who is still having serious issues catching the ball, and Holmes, who seems to be a bit of a ticking time bomb and who had some lapses last year on the field. The addition of Holmes actually hurts Keller simply because there’s another mouth to feed in the passing game. Keller could certainly still emerge as a very active player for QB Mark Sanchez, but I just can’t see him being a major go-to guy with all these other receivers in the mix. I would think Cotchery will be used in the slot, where his size will be well utilized and his lack of speed less of an issue. When you include guys like Tomlinson and Washington, that’s a lot of guys who want the ball, and it’s going to be tough to keep everyone happy. Sure, all these weapons look great on paper for Sanchez, but I’d still view him as a lower-end backup. This is still a player who was 38^th in the league in fantasy points per game the final eight games of the season. He looked lost more often than he looked to be in command, and he threw only 4 TD passes in those final eight games. You would think the team wants to throw more with all these receivers, but I’m not sure Sanchez is ready for the offense to be opened up, and they are certainly equipped to run the ball and ton, and they should run the ball a ton.

Clearly, there are now a ton of weapons on the Jet roster, and it all looks good on paper. But again, it seems too good to be true. I’m concerned about too many options pining for the ball and I find it hard to believe anyone will emerge as a true go-to guy in the passing game. The addition of Holmes could also take a little away from their running game.

In short, while we should see some big plays, I’m not feeling great about the Jet players. I’d be a little wary about all their options, with the exception of possibly Shonn Greene.

Here’s how I’d rank all their players from a fantasy perspective.

1. Shonn Greene
2. Dustin Keller
3. Jerricho Cotchery – Most reliable WR
4. Braylon Edwards – At least he should see fewer double teams
5. LaDainian Tomlinson
6. Mark Sanchez
7. Santonio Holmes
8. Leon Washington – Pending health update

I’m a little behind breaking these out, but I did want to wait until the bulk of the free agent action took place. I’ll be busting my ass to offer similar overviews for RB, WR, and TE in the next 4-5 days. My goal’s to have them all up by next Wednesday, so we can move on to the NFL Draft and our pre-draft rookie stuff.

Here’s my take on the QB landscape for those in keeper leagues:

Given his youth, supporting cast, and what he's shown so far Packer QB Aaron Rodgers is about as appealing as it gets at the QB position for those in keeper leagues

The QB position in the NFL isn’t exactly bursting with young talent, so if you have a stud like Drew Brees (31), Peyton Manning (34), Aaron Rodgers (26), or Philip Rivers (28), then you’re doing really well at this position in your keeper or dynasty league. If you’re in a dynasty league or don’t have any restrictions in terms of the number of years you can keep a player, Rodgers (who will be 27 in December) and Rivers (who will be 29 in December) may [...]]]> Note: Ages are accurate as of midseason 2010.

I’m a little behind breaking these out, but I did want to wait until the bulk of the free agent action took place. I’ll be busting my ass to offer similar overviews for RB, WR, and TE in the next 4-5 days. My goal’s to have them all up by next Wednesday, so we can move on to the NFL Draft and our pre-draft rookie stuff.

Here’s my take on the QB landscape for those in keeper leagues:

Given his youth, supporting cast, and what he's shown so far Packer QB Aaron Rodgers is about as appealing as it gets at the QB position for those in keeper leagues

The QB position in the NFL isn’t exactly bursting with young talent, so if you have a stud like Drew Brees (31), Peyton Manning (34), Aaron Rodgers (26), or Philip Rivers (28), then you’re doing really well at this position in your keeper or dynasty league. If you’re in a dynasty league or don’t have any restrictions in terms of the number of years you can keep a player, Rodgers (who will be 27 in December) and Rivers (who will be 29 in December) may be a little more attractive, simply because they’re younger. Rodgers, especially, is very young for a guy who’s considered elite – at least he is considered elite by me. Both Rodgers and Rivers also have a fine supporting cast around them, but I’d give the edge to Rodgers due to the presence of not only the youthful Greg Jennings (who is very, very good) but also TE Jermichael Finley, who could be a star. But I do also like those three sizable and physical targets Rivers has, and it appears he will have them all again at least for 2010 (although we’ll have to see if Vincent Jackson is facing a suspension due to his off-the-field issues). Unfortunately, it does appear that Jackson’s a bit of jerk.

But clearly, Brees and Manning are still playing at an extremely high level and still have excellent talent around them. Both could easily keep the major production up for at least 3-4 more years. In general, in a keeper league, I wouldn’t waste too much time thinking deeper into the future than 3-4 years (unless the player is very young) because things can change so quickly. Manning’s game will likely slip before Brees’, but he shows zero signs of slowing down. In fact, he’s getting better.

If you have one of these four players, they’re very desirable, even in a keeper league that limits the number of players who can be retained to only 1-3 guys. As we’ve stated a lot lately, it’s more of a QB-driven league than ever, and this is a position you can truly rely on week-in and week-out if you have a high-end player due to the nature of offenses in the NFL these days.

I do think there’s a drop-off after these four, and that’s because I’m officially concerned about Tom Brady’s (33) keeper value. Yes, I do think he’ll be more comfortable another year removed from his knee injury here in 2010, but I’m not convinced he’s ever going to be quite as good. The recent track record of QBs coming off a serious knee injury isn’t all that promising. Of course, even Brady at 85% is still very good, which brings us to the real short-term and possible long-term issue with Brady: the injury to Wes Welker. While Julian Edelman looks like as good a replacement as realistically possible in the league, if Welker’s not himself, that’s a huge problem because he’s the key to their whole offense. In addition, Randy Moss is pretty old in my eyes (he’s 33, but he’s had 12 very wearing seasons with a ton of playoff games) and I’m not sure how much longer he can maintain a high level of play. This leaves us with another problem when it comes to Brady: There’s nothing else at receiver on this team right now. Second year man Brandon Tate is a talent, but he’s got some major injury baggage. Other than the fantastic Edelman pick, the Pats have not done a good job putting players around their franchise QB. I do have Brady as the 5^th-best keeper option at this position because he’s obviously still young enough and one of the all-time greats, but I’m less optimistic with Brady than I’ve been in quite some time, so I’d be careful not to assume he’s going to be a great long-term option.

Given his solid play in 2009 and the presence of an impressive trio of young wideouts, Eli Manning's fantasy value is on the rise

In our next tier of players, we have some very solid options who could be really good for the long-term, but none are exactly locks, so those considering them in smaller keeper leagues that keep like only 2-3 players need to think long and hard about keeping them around and consider if they’re truly worth keeping. But in a larger keeper league (keep 4+ players) or a dynasty league, players like Tony Romo (30), Matt Schaub (29), Joe Flacco (25), Ben Roethlisberger (28), Jay Cutler (27), Matt Ryan (25), and Eli Manning (29) are certainly desirable. Romo and Schaub are a little older (already), but both have excellent receivers to throw to and can definitely put up big numbers. Schaub, of course, also does still have durability issues, since he still absorbs too many hits. Flacco does stand out now due to the addition of Anquan Boldin, his youth and talent, and the presence of OC Cam Cameron, who is definitely a friend of fantasy. There’s some concern given how he took a step back last year, but I view that as a one-step-back-and-two-steps-forward process for Flacco, especially with Boldin finally giving him some help at receiver and with Derrick Mason back for at least 1-2 more years. Roethlisberger would be more of a slam-dunk given his freakish talent and fantastic supporting cast at the skill positions, but his future is cloudy now given his (extremely disturbing) off-the-field issues. But while Big Ben’s playground mentality and lack of precision at times is troublesome, the guy’s got a lot working in his favor on the football field, and he’s in his prime right now. As for Cutler, I obviously love his talent, but his 2009 season speaks for itself – and it doesn’t speak well about him. You have to be concerned with downside, knowing what we now know, because there’s potential for another meltdown if he loses his game and his gunslinger mentality brings him down. But at least there’s still a lot of juicy upside – especially with Mike Martz on board. Cutler did account for a very respectable 28 TDs in a train wreck of a season (granted, 8 TDs came in the final two games). Ryan may not have the enticing upside, and he’s also coming off a second-year slump like Flacco, but he’s clearly a quality player, and he does have a legit #1 in Roddy White, so I’d feel okay about him as a lower-end starter in a 12-team league. It would be nice to see them add a solid wideout in this year’s draft. But I have faith him in. And finally, Manning’s usually not in the conversation when you’re talking about attractive keeper prospects at the QB position, but things have quickly changed after the 2009 season. For one, it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to count on Brandon Jacobs and their power running game, and, in fact, in ’09 we saw the team transition into being more of a passing team. It certainly helped that they had THREE young receivers step up basically all at once, giving Manning – who is right now hitting his prime – a pretty nice receiving corps. I really like Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks, and I think Manning’s ready to lead this offense like he’s never led them before, so his fantasy appeal is higher than ever. While he still has lapses, Manning clearly took his game to another level in 2009.

It looks like Kevin Kolb's time in Philly is in the near future, possibly as near as their next regular season game, and he's a terrific keeper prospect

Things certainly get dicey after this, so my needs and expectations would factor into my keeper decisions. For example, if I were building for the future, Matthew Stafford (22) would clearly be the ideal keeper. Opinions are mixed on Stafford, and he still clearly has a lot to prove. But here’s what I know: He has the tools to be an elite player, and he has a superstar talent in Calvin Johnson to throw to. I’ll take my chances with Stafford, since my goal in a keeper league is to always acquire as many elite (or potentially elite) players as possible. The other player I’d look at in terms of building for the future is Chad Henne (25), who acquitted himself extremely well in his time as the starter in Miami this past season. Henne needs a lot more help at receiver, and he’s not yet someone anyone can truly rely on. But he also has the tools to enjoy a lot of success, and his sampling this past year was, again, pretty impressive. When I see a QB with the size and arm strength to be very good and show a great deal of poise, as I did with Henne this past year, I’m naturally optimistic. If we’re looking for long-term help, then Mark Sanchez (24) certainly also needs to be considered. I’m not a big Sanchez guy because of his limitations as a thrower and the run-heavy nature of their offense – as well as their overall identity being defined on the defensive side of the ball – but the guy can clearly do good things in the NFL. I don’t see a lot of consistently good fantasy production in his future, and I am also concerned about how he at times last year looked like he was in way over his head, but the guy’s hardly a stiff.  A player I’d personally rather take a chance on for the long-term over Sanchez is Philly’s Kevin Kolb (26). Kolb’s still very unproven, but he certainly stood out in his two starts in 2009 (718 yards passing and 4 TDs). They are high on him and it’s clear he’s going to be a starter very soon. The expectation is that he is (a starter) for the Eagles, which certainly helps his fantasy potential due to their personnel and scheme. The only issue with Kolb for right now is that he might still have to wait yet another season before he’s truly the guy, so you may have to be patient. But the accurate Kolb looks like a player who can handle Andy Reid’s pass-happy offense, if not flourish in it. As of today (3/25), starter Donovan McNabb hasn’t been traded, but a deal could still be stuck, so Kolb’s keep value could soar. If McNabb was moved, I’d move Kolb well into my top-20 for the long-term, possibly around 15^th overall.

Otherwise, for more of a short-term fix, we’re looking at veterans like Carson Palmer (30) and Donovan McNabb (34). Palmer does get some help with the addition of WR Antonio Bryant, and that helps. But his game has fallen off due (presumably) to his various injury issues the last few years. It’s gotten to the point at which I’m officially questioning whether he’ll ever be an elite thrower again, but he does have the tools still to be a stud, and he’s performed like a stud in the past. As for McNabb, his value for even 2010 is still up in the air, since he may be traded. But he’ll clearly be starting in this league for the next 2-3 years at least if he wants to. His durability is an issue, his game is declining, and his limitations and problems certainly aren’t going away at this point, so he doesn’t have much upside. But there’s also something to be said for his experience and long history of production, so he’s still viable. If he’s back in Philly as the starter in 2010, he’s potentially a top-12 guy if healthy. If he’s in St. Louis or San Francisco, those are actually two decent spots, especially SF, but he’d be a fantasy backup in both places.

Next up, for any keeper league, you have to give some priority to some of the younger players in the league, even if they have some issues. Vince Young (27)

Matt Leinart (27), Matt Cassel (28), and Josh Freeman (22) are some guys to look at. I don’t have a ton of confidence in any of them, but Young did show improvement in 2009 and has some nice weapons, plus he can help you on the ground. Freeman’s got a long way to go, but he did show surprising poise at times last year. He has the physical tools to be a very good player, but the problem with him is his supporting cast at the skill positions is pretty bad, so it’s going to be a struggle for him. Leinart and Cassel are probably a little safer, given their appealing supporting casts. Leinart will be helped by stud WR Larry Fitzgerald, while Cassel has a chance to show more game going forward in what should eventually be a fantasy-friendly offense and with some decent receivers and overall weapons. All things considered, I’d rank them just how I have here for those in keeper leagues.

I should also include a few guys in Jason Campbell (28), Alex Smith (26), and Matt Moore (26) who have a chance. Campbell looks like the guy for 2010, but it seems inevitable he will be replaced, and then who knows? He’s far from perfect and, at this point, his slow tempo appears to be a problem that will never go away. Smith probably isn’t the answer, but if the team doesn’t find a way to upgrade the position by a trade (McNabb?) or in the draft, he’ll have to be the guy by default, and he did look improved in 2009 and has a pretty solid receiving corps. Moore is the guy, but he’s probably more of a game-manager than anything else, and his receiving corps looks terrible other than Steve Smith.

There are some remaining players who I think might have value (or even a lot of value), but for only 2010. Of course, Brett Favre (41) tops the list. If he’s back in 2010, he’s a top-12 guy based on his supporting cast and shockingly strong play in ’09. David Garrard (32) may be replaced soon in Jacksonville, but if their alternatives turn out to be limited, he may be the guy for 2-3 more years. He is what he is at this point, and his receiving corps is nothing special. But due to his experience, mobility, and durability, he finds a way to put up respectable numbers.

Kyle Orton (28) will be the guy most likely in 2010, but we’ve seen over and over what Orton is: a player who needs to be limited and managed. He may be a better NFL option than new teammate Brady Quinn, but his fantasy value is limited, especially if the team loses Brandon Marshall. Barring an amazing turnaround, I’m not that confident in Orton, and the addition of Quinn makes me even less enthusiastic.

It's a leap of faith depending on him, but Charlie Whitehurst has the tools to be an effective player and he certainly has a clear path to the starting lineup in Seattle now

Speaking of Brady Quinn (26), he certainly needs to be included in any keeper conversation, since he presumably will be given a chance to take over as this team’s QB of the future. But while he knows this offense well and might end up elevating his game in it, it’s far from a lock he’ll be the guy or they he’ll enjoy success if he is the guy. I’m not overly confident, but while it’s a stretch to say he’s a desirable keeper, it’s too early to write him off. He’s worth a roster spot on a dynasty team, for sure. Maybe I’m enamored with the unknown simply because he’s an unknown, but I’d actually be inclined to take a flyer on a guy like Charlie Whitehurst (28) over Quinn. Granted, Quinn’s more of a proven commodity, but at least we have no idea if Whitehurst can play – yet we’re pretty sure Quinn can’t really play at a high level, so the element of the unknown is enticing with a guy like Whitehurst, who does have the tools to excel and whom Seattle clearly acquired with designs on starting him soon.

And speaking of Seattle, I’d put Matt Hasselbeck (35) in the group of viable remaining options, including JaMarcus Russell (25), Michael Vick (30), Jake Delhomme (35), and Trent Edwards (27). Hasselbeck, however, may not finish out the 2010 season as the starter, as the team may look to get Charlie Whitehurst on the field, especially if they’re out of the playoff race. Russell is still very young and talented, but his career is perilously close to being completely in the toilet, so barring a dramatic turnaround, I wouldn’t expect contributions from him – especially on this horrendous team. Vick’s probably never going to regain the burst of speed that made him so dangerous, so even if he gets another chance to start, I’d keep expectations tempered. He’s worth a shot for depth in a dynasty league; that’s about it. Delhomme obviously has some value for 2010, but you’d better be in a deep dynasty league to consider him at this point. I’m not ready to totally bail on Edwards, but his career is completely off track, and if they draft or acquire another QB, he’ll be in trouble. Edwards has the tools to be an effective player, but he’s regressed, and he’s had injury issues, plus this team’s receiving corps is bad.

At this point, we’re really digging deep, and all the remaining players are major reaches. For those in dynasty leagues, Tarvaris Jackson (27) may be worth a roster spot. I’m not bullish on his future, but if Brett Favre does retire this year, Jackson would have a good chance to take control of the job, and this is a very good situation for him. My concern is how the team continues to find other options, and they may even draft a QB if they (somehow) know Favre’s not coming back, or even if they’re not sure he will. You also have Sage Rosenfels in the mix, and I think Rosenfels would be better for this team for the short term than Jackson. But if you’re looking for a little upside potential, Jackson does still have that.

Otherwise, the rest of the fantasy landscape includes some veterans who may or may not have starter’s value in 2010, such as Marc Bulger (33), A.J. Feeley (33), and Bruce Gradkowski (27). Gradkowski may start for the Raiders this year, but while he’s scrappy, the guy doesn’t have the tools to maintain an acceptable level of play – and it is the Raiders. Bulger and Feeley could be out of luck if the team trades for Donovan McNabb or drafts Sam Bradford #1 overall in April’s draft. There are also a couple of guys relatively young who could get an opportunity in the next 1-2 years and could potentially enjoy a modicum of success, such as Sage Rosenfels (32) and Derek Anderson (27).

If you’re in a large dynasty league and are looking for a development prospect, there’s really not much out there, but here’s what’s left: Dennis Dixon (25), Tyler Thigpen (26), Brian Hoyer (25), Brian Brohm (25), Kellen Clemens (27), Brodie Croyle (27), Nate Davis (23), Tom Brandstater (26), Colt Brennan (27), and Stephen McGee (25). Dixon may actually have a chance in Pittsburgh, given the bizarre situation with Ben Roethlisberger, and he did show some potential in one start last year. He’s still very raw, but he’s very athletic as well. I do like Thigpen, but he needs to be in the right system (a shotgun spread approach), and he’s going to need some help if he’s to ever come through. Right now he’s certainly not on the path to a starting lineup in Miami. Brohm has shown absolutely nothing, but he wasn’t terrible in a cameo appearance in 2009 and was highly-touted coming out of college, plus there’s a real need in Buffalo at QB. Hoyer’s a great story and might stick here for a number of years behind Tom Brady, but obviously being behind Brady is prohibitive. Clemens and Croyle have some ability, but they’ve had chances and failed, so they are major reaches. Davis, Brandstater, Brennan, and McGee are still developmental guys who don’t appear to be in line to start in the near future.

Speaking of the gathering, we did so in our new office building. I’ve been looking to buy a building for quite some time, and with this current economy and real estate market, this year was the time. We literally just moved in officially last week, and the building is awesome. We’ve got high-speed internet, of course, but also Direct TV with TIVO so we don’t miss a thing during the season. This is a big relief for me, since I’ve been going out of my mind the last 3-4 months coordinating the building improvement and doing a lot of work myself. But it’s now done – just in time for the magazine push.

Here's a shot taken from the FantasyGuru.com nerve center on 5/1. Each year after the draft we gather with our key staff members to go over all 32 teams, their players, and everything else. It's [...]]]> In case you haven’t noticed, we posted on Friday our “Post-Draft” Rookie Report. We did so after our annual pow-wow at the FantasyGuru.com nerve center on Friday. Each year, we gather our main contributors and go over all 32 teams and their key players to prepare for our magazine and the whole season.

Speaking of the gathering, we did so in our new office building. I’ve been looking to buy a building for quite some time, and with this current economy and real estate market, this year was the time. We literally just moved in officially last week, and the building is awesome. We’ve got high-speed internet, of course, but also Direct TV with TIVO so we don’t miss a thing during the season. This is a big relief for me, since I’ve been going out of my mind the last 3-4 months coordinating the building improvement and doing a lot of work myself. But it’s now done – just in time for the magazine push.

Here's a shot taken from the FantasyGuru.com nerve center on 5/1. Each year after the draft we gather with our key staff members to go over all 32 teams, their players, and everything else. It's 8 hours of hardcore football talk that gets us ready to publish our mag, and for the season. From left to right: Greg Cosell, Adam Caplan, Matt Camp, and Joe Dolan. John Hansen took the pic.

We are officially in magazine mode, but rather than laying low for 4-5 weeks, I do still plan to post up a bunch of content. This week we’ll get our preliminary rankings and projections posted. After that, my plan is to release one large article/feature per week the next two months.

We also updated today our keeper rankings, if you’re interested. One thing we didn’t do yet is rank the rookie players overall for the next 2-3 years. This is a challenge because ranking players overall for keeper leagues should really depend on your team needs. If you really need a QB, for example, Matthew Stafford should be #1 on your list.

But for those interested, here’s a quick ranking of the top-45 rookies overall. If you’re looking for analysis, check out the post-draft rookie report on the site.

1. Knowshon Moreno, DEN

2. Matthew Stafford, DET

3. Michael Crabtree, SF

4. Chris Wells, ARI – Would be higher, concerned with durability.

5. Donald Brown, IND

6. Jeremy Maclin, PHI

7. LeSean McCoy, PHI

8. Percy Harvin, MIN

9. Brandon Pettigrew, DET

10. Darrius Heyward Bey, OAK

11. Shonn Greene, NYJ

12. Mark Sanchez, NYJ

13. Kenny Britt, TEN

14. Hakeem Nicks, NYG

15. Josh Freeman, TB

16. Brian Robiskie, CLE

17. Brandon Tate, NE

18. Jared Cook, TEN

19. Chase Coffman, CIN

20. Louis Murphy, OAK

21. Brooks Foster, STL

22. Pat White, MIA

23. Derrick Williams, DET

24. Juaquin Iglesias, CHI

25. Andre Brown, NYG

26. Shawn Nelson, BUF

27. Mohamed Massaquoi, CLE

28. Austin Collie, IND

29. Patrick Turner, MIA

30. Deon Butler, SEA

31. Rashad Jennings, JAC

32. LaRod Stephens-Howling, ARI

33. Travis Beckum, NYG

34. Cornelius Ingram, PHI

35. James Davis, CLE

36. Cedric Peerman, BAL

37. Gartrell Johnson, SD

38. Glen Coffee, SF

39. Javon Ringer, TEN

40. Ramses Barden, NYG

41. Mike Wallace, PIT

42. James Casey, HOU

43. Javarris Williams, KC

44. Bernard Scott, CIN

45. Tom Brandstater, DEN

First up, for the Bears. It’s always a risk to mortgage your future for any one player, but unless Cutler implodes off the field, this move has little downside for a franchise and fan base that has been without an elite passer since WWII. I’m big on building a team, or at least an offense, from the QB position up, and the Bears now have immediate credibility on the offense. They now have something to truly hang their hat on offensively, and they haven’t had that for a long time.

We get access to tidbits of information all the time, and one thing we heard late last year was that the Bears had come to the realization that Kyle Orton wasn’t the answer. He’s not bad, but unless you have the 2000 Raven defense on the field with him, he’s just not good enough. He’s limited as a passer, particularly his ability to hang in the pocket and deliver the ball down the field for big plays. I saw several times last year when WR Devin Hester was open deep, yet Orton couldn’t get him the ball. The Bears really had no [...]]]> Okay, here’s my spin on the big trade from yesterday.

First up, for the Bears. It’s always a risk to mortgage your future for any one player, but unless Cutler implodes off the field, this move has little downside for a franchise and fan base that has been without an elite passer since WWII. I’m big on building a team, or at least an offense, from the QB position up, and the Bears now have immediate credibility on the offense. They now have something to truly hang their hat on offensively, and they haven’t had that for a long time.

We get access to tidbits of information all the time, and one thing we heard late last year was that the Bears had come to the realization that Kyle Orton wasn’t the answer. He’s not bad, but unless you have the 2000 Raven defense on the field with him, he’s just not good enough. He’s limited as a passer, particularly his ability to hang in the pocket and deliver the ball down the field for big plays. I saw several times last year when WR Devin Hester was open deep, yet Orton couldn’t get him the ball. The Bears really had no other alternatives this off-season, so they were ready to roll with Orton for at least one more year – but they obviously pounced when Cutler became available.

The Bear OL is decent, and it got better this week when they also added veteran Orlando Pace. Pace is on his last legs and injuries have dogged him, but he does improve their line and their depth on their line. They will likely move 2008 #1 pick Chris Williams to RT, and they also added veteran Kevin Schaffer. They have at the very least replaced veteran John Tait, who is gone.

Devin Hester couldn't have asked for a better QB to help him develop his game and get the most out of his ability than Jay Cuter

The Bears have been a run-first team, but you don’t trade for Jay Cutler (who great up a Bear fan, by the way) and just hand the ball off, so they will pass it more than we’ve seen in a decade. They are still thin at receiver, but this is fantastic new for WR Devin Hester. We’ve written for well over a year how the team is VERY high on Hester the WR, and we saw that play out in 2008 with his role at that position and the lack of action he saw as a returner. Hester’s probably a year away from fully reaching his potential as a receiver, maybe even two, but I’m telling you right now that he’s really improved his route-running and he’s exhibited some serious upside. He’s obviously very dangerous after the catch, and I think he’s shown some serious potential as a deep threat. He couldn’t ask for a better QB, quite frankly. Cutler’s a gunslinger who will fire him the ball all over the field, and he can throw it 60 yards down the field while scrambling to his left, almost impossible for a right-handed QB. Forget about the cold and wind in Chicago; Cutler’s gun will slice through that.

One thing’s for sure: Cutler will not stifle Hester’s development, as Orton definitely did. Cutler will do just the opposite, as he did for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, who was a rookie in 2008.

I understand some people are skeptical with Hester. That’s your prerogative if you are. I personally play to win, so I’m going to be high on Hester’s potential this year, even in Cutler’s first year. Keep in mind Ron Turner’s offense in Chicago is about running the ball and taking shots deep, they will do so with Hester – a lot. I’m not sure if I’ll view Hester as a very low #2 fantasy WR or a high #3, but he’s in that range. I think Hester has a chance to be special with Cutler in, so I’m going to target him. The skeptics can hold off and select only ‘proven’ commodities, but I like to be proactive and get the breakout guy on the cheap before his price goes way up.

This is also fantastic news for TE Greg Olsen, another guy I like a lot. Olsen runs like a WR, and he’s one of the best downfield threats at the TE position. Given how thin the Bear receiving corps is, you can bet Olsen will be a huge part of their passing game, along with Desmond Clark. Olsen to me is a viable starter at this point, no question. I can see 800-900 yards and 6-7 TDs.

If I were the Bears, I would bring Brandon Lloyd back in 2009. He was actually pretty darn good before getting hurt, and he’ll come cheaply. They also need to invest a draft pick in a bigger receiver, and they may be interested in Torry Holt. I’d also be looking into Drew Bennett right now if I were Chicago. He has the size they need, the experience, and he fits in pretty well in Chicago.

As for Matt Forte, I have absolutely no problem with his fantasy value, even if he won’t carry the ball quite as much. He wore down a little last year, anyway, and he’s a very good receiver out of the backfield, very smooth. They will still run him 15+ times per game, and he’ll get 5-6 ball thrown to him a game, at least. Given the threat Cutler brings to the table, and his ability to move the ball consistently, Forte’s value gets a boost, even if it’s a small boost.

In Denver, the outlook offensively isn’t quite as rosy. They do at least get a serviceable player in Orton. I actually don’t think Orton starting for Denver is a tragedy for Marshall. Orton can excel throwing in the intermediate area, and that’s where the physical Marshall tends to make his money. Orton is pretty accurate on shorter passes, and there is a sustaining element to Orton’s game, so Marshall’s catch and yardage totals should be okay. I have to look at all the other players at WR closely to determine if Marshall is still a legit #1 fantasy WR, though. Most likely, he is only in a PPR league. I’m not as encouraged with Eddie Royal. Royal can do well in the intermediate area, but he’s their deep threat (if they have one), and I don’t see him connecting on many deeper balls with Orton, so Royal’s potential takes a hit. He’s probably more of a fill-in starter at this point, and #3-#4 fantasy wideout. Keep in mind they have some other guys who excel in the intermediate area, like Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney. Orton will take full advantage of his TEs, too, but the problem is, I see Daniel Graham being more of a factor now, since he’s a more complete TE. He won’t be anything special because he’s too valuable a blocker, but he could limit Tony Scheffler’s potential. Scheffler is a playmaker, though, and they need all the help they can get with Orton under center.

Orton should be okay for this year in Denver – provided he plays like he did before his ankle injury in 2008. Before that injury, he was actually razor sharp, and very effective. Afterward, not so much. He’s not an ideal franchise QB, so the Broncos will be targeting QB Mark Sanchez in the draft, for sure. Sanchez played in a pro style offense at USC, and even though he started only one year, that’s one more year than Matt Cassel did at USC. Sanchez would likely sit the bench for a season, and be given a chance to start for Denver in 2010. If he is a Bronco, that should help his fantasy value, since the system would be very QB-friendly and a good fit for him.

One final point: the Broncos has better run the ball and fully utilize all their backs this year with Orton in. I look for Correll Buckhalter to get the first crack, and I think J.J. Arrington will be an intriguing weapon, similar to Kevin Faulk in New England.

We’re using their info and analysis as the foundation of this year’s rookie content, along with opinions from Tony Pauline from TFYDraft.com, so rather than rush to put up rankings and analysis in March, which is meaningless to most, we’re taking our time to make sure we have these players scouted correctly.

Of course a lot of the real analysis for 2009 will be catered to the teams these players get drafted by, but here are some initial thoughts that will wind up being the foundations of our scouting of these players. If a skill player is truly worth mentioning, he’s mentioned below.

Quarterbacks