Initial thoughts on preliminary 2010 projections

In case you missed it, we put up our initial projections on Friday. It’s really early in the game and there’s a ton of uncertainty, but I thought it would make for an interesting post to submit some of the rankings that I’m most intrigued by and offer some reasoning behind them.

I’m sure anyone looking at these projections has some questions or comments, and if you do on any of these players listed below feel free to chime in and I’ll do my best to address them.

Aaron Rodgers at #1 – I think it’s the right thing to do because of his running ability. That’s an element for fantasy he really has over the other elite players at the position. 115 rushes and 9 rushing TDs over the last two years is nothing to sneeze at. And I feel a heck of a lot better about the OL, which was the only concern for Rodgers in 2009. He did get in a funk last year, but after seeing him work himself out of it, he’s now officially elite in my eyes.

Kevin Kolb at #10 – It was a very tough call between and Jay Cutler for that 9th spot. [...]

RB Keeper Overviews

Note: Ages are accurate as of midseason 2010.

What’s interesting about this position is how watered down it is. Because so many backfield are utilizing two (even three) players in a rotation, the number of clear studs is low. And while there are more players these days than usual who do have some value now due to a fairly large role, they’re still in situations that prevent major fantasy production. We’ve also seen fewer legitimate developmental prospects at the position and a lot of players who are kind of in limbo, with little long-term potential and even questionable short-term potential.

I’ll start off this section with the (surprisingly few) players who are clearly slam-dunks for those in keeper leagues: Adrian Peterson (Min, 25), Steven Jackson (Stl, 27), Chris Johnson (Ten, 24), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac, 25), and Ray Rice (Bal, 23).

It's probably a little early to proclaim Ray Rice as a legit fantasy stud for the long-term, but the guy was incredibly impressive in 2009 – and he's very young

These five players are clearly the cream of the crop, and with youth on their side. Rice may not be a legit top-5 overall RB over the next few years, as the [...]

First look at the RBs

As the draft quickly approaches, we’re trying to bang out as much of the magazine writeups as we possibly can, and I’ve just completed about the top-50 RBs. Of course, the draft will change a lot of things, so it’s hard to rank any player for certain. We have also not yet plugged in projections, which can change things once you see the raw numbers. But I do have some rankings and comments on the top-50 guys now, and I’m pretty comfortable with this list, knowing it’s very early.

So here’s what I got at this early stage.

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN – Has to be top dog this year given youth and talent but more action in the passing game would be nice.

2. Michael Turner, ATL – Carried the load all season with great effectiveness in run-heavy offense and was money near the goal so a no-brainer.

3. Maurice Drew, JAC – Major jump in receptions key for 3rd straight strong season and now he truly carries the load plus Holt will help their shaky team.

4. Matt Forte, CHI – Addition of Cutler should help them move the ball and create more opportunities for the slick and productive runner and receiver.

5. LaDainian [...]

First SOS Impressions

There’s something to be said for first impressions, and when it comes to the NFL schedule, a first impression may be better than the alternative, which is paralysis by over-analysis. So when the schedule came out last night, I thought I’d give a fast glance at each team and come up with a quick first impression.

Keep in mind I’m not really looking at these in NFL terms, in term of wins and losses. I’m looking strictly from a fantasy perspective.

Here’s what I got.

ARI – The schedule usually looks good for them based on their division, and this year is no exception. There are several tough matchups, but overall the schedule is their friend again in 2009.

ATL – It looks pretty tough. 9 or 10 of their opponents are capable of slowing Michael Turner down, and we saw in 2008 that he can be limited by a good defense. I’ll have to look at this one more closely because the schedule could dictate a little bit of a fall back for the Falcons.

BAL – At first glance, the schedule looks great. Take away the two necessary games against the Steelers, and I see only 1-2 potential problems – and a ton [...]

RB Keeper Overviews

It’s been a few weeks since I broke out my QB Keeper Overviews here, and it’s already time to update them. But before I do that I’m going to try to bang out the other key positions within the next week and catch completely up.

Next up, it’s the RBs.

At first glance, while there is good depth, I notice a little bit of a void when it comes to true studs at the position. So if you’re in a keeper league that retains only 3-4 players, I advise your approach your keepers much like you should have been approaching a standard redraft league the last two years: don’t take a RB just because he’s a RB and take the best players, period. Keep in mind, of course, the pool of attractive options will increase after the draft.

That said about the lack of quality at the top, I’m personally ranking some young guys who I do think are for real very high, even though they’ve really only “done it” for one year.

Let’s take a look at the top guys.

There aren’t many RBs who are clearly their team’s workhorse, so if you have one on your team, and he’s a young stud, then [...]

About John Hansen

John Hansen

Specializing in football, Hansen is one of the most connected fantasy writers in the country.

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