Fantasy Guru Blog » Chris Johnson

RB Keeper Overviews

John Hansen — Sat, 27 Mar 2010 17:32:46 +0000

Note: Ages are accurate as of midseason 2010.

What’s interesting about this position is how watered down it is. Because so many backfield are utilizing two (even three) players in a rotation, the number of clear studs is low. And while there are more players these days than usual who do have some value now due to a fairly large role, they’re still in situations that prevent major fantasy production. We’ve also seen fewer legitimate developmental prospects at the position and a lot of players who are kind of in limbo, with little long-term potential and even questionable short-term potential.

I’ll start off this section with the (surprisingly few) players who are clearly slam-dunks for those in keeper leagues: Adrian Peterson (Min, 25), Steven Jackson (Stl, 27), Chris Johnson (Ten, 24), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac, 25), and Ray Rice (Bal, 23).

It's probably a little early to proclaim Ray Rice as a legit fantasy stud for the long-term, but the guy was incredibly impressive in 2009 - and he's very young

These five players are clearly the cream of the crop, and with youth on their side. Rice may not be a legit top-5 overall RB over the next few years, as the team should always look to work a bigger back into the mix. But he was so impressive in 2009 that he simply has to be in this elite realm, especially since he’s so young and versatile. Jackson’s window may be starting to close, but there have been zero signs of slowdown yet, and he should have a couple of peak seasons left in him. Their QB situation is worrisome, but the OL has been built up quite nicely.

The talent and fantasy potential and reliability does drop off a little after this group, but there are certainly still some really attractive options, such as Rashard Mendenhall (Pit, 23), DeAngelo Williams (Car, 27), Michael Turner (Atl, 28), Frank Gore (SF, 27), and Jonathan Stewart (Car, 23). Mendenhall does need to prove he can maintain a high level of play for another season, but if the Steelers get the best out of him, his potential on this good team is actually mind-blowing because he’s very talented. Williams will be a free agent in 2011, but if we’re in the same situation as we are next year with the CBA, he’ll be restricted again and won’t likely go anywhere. He has the obvious problem of playing with Stewart, but Williams is so damn good. He proved to be the real deal in 2009 coming off a dream 2008 season. I think he’s fantastic. Turner’s a guy who could fall off in a couple of years, but keep in mind his workload so far for a 28-year old has been minimal, so he probably still has a good amount of peak time ahead of him. Gore’s starting to build up a lot of touches in his career, and while injuries are a concern, he is still in his prime and should be fine if healthy the next two years at least. Stewart’s in the same boat as Williams. He’s unbelievably good, but in a timeshare. At least for those looking way down the road, that timeshare should extend both player’s careers. I brought that up while interviewing both Williams and Stewart on the radio last year – and they wholeheartedly agreed that the timeshare will extend their careers. Stewart is clearly a stud, and I’ll take my chances on a young stud in a keeper league, even with a timeshare situation.

Based purely on talent and youth, you could argue that Beanie Wells deserves to be considered a top-5 fantasy back for the long-term

While the players mentioned above appear to be the cream of the crop, there are certainly some other very appealing young backs still, such as Shonn Greene (NYJ, 25), Chris Wells (Ari, 22), Jamaal Charles (KC, 23), Knowshon Moreno (Den, 23), and LeSean McCoy (Phi, 22). They’re all very young and in very good situations, so while they aren’t certain slam-dunks, they’re desirable. Greene’s going to be the main ball-carrier on what should be a good team for years to come, but there are others here who will take touches away, at least for the short term (LaDainian Tomlinson and Leon Washington, of course). Wells on talent alone could be considered a top-5 keeper, but he has durability issues and his poor blocking should mean a steady role for Tim Hightower. But Wells has big upside. Speaking of upside, Charles has a ton of it, as evidenced by his ballistic run at the end of 2009. He’s certainly a very nice keeper, but I would just keep expectations realistic in case his lack of size prevents the team from truly committing to him like the Titans have committed to Chris Johnson. The signing of solid veteran Thomas Jones is a sign the team will be somewhat judicious with how they use Charles. Still, he’s a fine keeper given the juice he offers. Moreno’s a little bit of a tough call. He was solid at times last year and he’s a high pick who will get every chance to play a lot, but he also showed some limitations (and that he’s not special) and I’m concerned with injuries considering all the contact he takes. It’s also questionable where this team is going with their best wideout likely heading out of town and the QB situation not exactly good. Moreno needs to improve, bottom line, because he wasn’t good enough to stave off Correll Buckhalter last year, which is a bad sign. Buckhalter looks very much in the mix again this year, and head coach Josh McDaniels looks like a guy who has no qualms using a committee approach. But Moreno is far from a stiff, and he has youth on his side. McCoy certainly showed nice potential in his rookie year, and he should be even better in 2010. It’s great for him how they parted ways with Brian Westbrook, but he’s another guy who’s not exactly a lock to do well the next 2-3 years. At times last year, he didn’t look as quick and decisive as he did in college, so we’ll have to see if that was just his being hesitant and a little unsure of himself. But his role’s obviously expanding big time, even with veteran Mike Bell added.

There’s no question the talent and keeper potential drops a level after the aforementioned players. There are plenty of options, but they all have some sort of issue that appears prohibitive. You have players like Cedric Benson (Cin, 27), Ryan Grant (GB, 27), and Ronnie Brown (Mia, 28), at least, and they are relatively young and have large roles on their teams, so they are solid. You have players who have the talent to produce, but could be limited by a lack of touches, due to the presence of other players on their teams. Examples would be Matt Forte (Chi, 24), Fred Jackson (Buf, 29), Joseph Addai (Ind, 27), Marion Barber (Dal, 27), and Pierre Thomas (NO, 25). Each situation is different, so I’d look hard at these players’ ages, supporting casts, and offensive systems. Forte and Thomas do have youth working in their favor, while Addai and Barber are in good situations. Jackson’s very good, but he’s probably at best a high-end #3, unless the team fully commits to him, which is yet to be determined.

Those looking to be proactive and aggressive should consider Felix Jones one of the best keeper prospects in the league because he has the potential to put up huge numbers if all goes well over the next 3-4 years

Next up, I like the group of young options who have active roles and should have them for years to come, like Felix Jones (Dal, 23), Steve Slaton (Hou, 24), Ahmad Bradshaw, (NYG, 24), Reggie Bush (NO, 25), and Darren McFadden (Oak, 23). Jones is clearly the best of the bunch, and he could even be considered a borderline stud in 7-8 months if he fully takes charge of this backfield. I’ve said for a while now that I think he could potentially be a “lead” back, and if he is and he stays healthy, look out. He actually has more upside than a guy like Jamaal Charles because he’s a bigger and better pure runner. Bradshaw’s a player, so he’s not a bad option at all as a 3^rd back. Bush at least we know will always have a role, and while he’s frustrating, he does make plays. Slaton’s a bit of a wildcard, but at the worst, he should be a guy who gets 35-40% of his team’s touches – unless the Texans hit a homerun in the draft and nabs a productive power guy. As for McFadden, I’m not a fan, but he is very young. At some point, someone has to take advantage of his North-South running ability and solid receiving potential.

A player who doesn’t really have a group is Donald Brown (Ind, 23). He should be, at worst, an active complementary player – but he could be much more than that. He could be the guy in 1-2 years, so he’s very much worth hanging on to. He’s pretty thin and needs to show he can stay healthy, but he’s a very good runner and receiver, and he’s in a great situation.

There are some players next up who I don’t think will be major factors in 1-2 years, but who do have value for right now and could certainly prove me wrong and be top-30 backs over the next two years. Brandon Jacobs (NYG, 28), Jerome Harrison (Cle, 27), Cadillac Williams (TB, 28), and Ricky Williams (Mia, 33) are in this group. Although it’s hardly a lock he’s the lead guy for the next few years, Harrison probably also has the best to chance to surprise over the next few years, while Williams’ value could be nil this time next year, as he might retire. Jacobs and Willliams will have key roles heading into 2010, but they could quickly lose a ton of fantasy value due to injuries, wear and tear, etc. Thomas Jones (NYJ, 32) can be placed in this group as well.

He's probably never going to be a true lead guy, but Justin Forsett was very impressive last year and clearly has a lot to offer, so he's worth a shot

Getting back to the younger guys, we do still have some out there, but none are guaranteed expansive roles, and they could really go either way in the coming years. I do like Justin Forsett (Sea, 24) a lot, so he tops this group, but there’s no real indication the team views him as a major player in their backfield for the long-term, or that they really should (although he showed a lot in 2009). But at the very least, he should be a really nice complementary player. Kevin Smith (Det, 23) is coming off a serious knee injury and shoulder problems, but his biggest issue is his lack of dynamism. That could lead the team to look for an upgrade in the draft soon. Laurence Maroney (NE, 25) continues to fumble away his chances and clearly prevent the team from fully committing to him, and Tim Hightower (Ari, 24), while very solid, will always split time with Wells in Arizona. I’d put Michael Bush (Oak, 26) in this area as well. He may finally get a chance in Oakland now that Justin Fargas is gone. He hasn’t done enough to feel great about him, but on the other hand he’s definitely showed flashes. If he takes control over the “lead” role here, he could be a solid #3 fantasy back/flex starter for the next couple of years.

There’s another group of players who are all pretty young, but whose futures are really up in the air. LenDale White (Ten, 25), Leon Washington (NYJ, 28), Chester Taylor (Min, 30), Marshawn Lynch (Buf, 24), Jason Snelling (Atl, 26), Arian Foster (Hou, 24), Darren Sproles (SD, 27), and Jerious Norwood (Atl, 27) fall in here. Taylor’s going to have some value the next 2-3 years in Chicago, as will Washington wherever he is if healthy, so they are nice back-up types for a larger keeper league. Sproles and Norwood do have some upside, but they’re never going to command a lot of touches. White and Lynch are young and have a chance to resurrect their careers, but they might also continue to do nothing and their 2009 seasons don’t instill much confidence. Foster’s probably not going to be in this group after the draft, as the Texans are a good bet to draft a bigger back because at the end of the day, Foster’s “just a guy.”

Sticking with the younger players, at this point, you can’t truly count on the remaining options – but they’re probably worth stashing away due to their youth and, in many cases, their potential. Tashard Choice (Dal, 25) and James Davis (Cle, 24) are good example, and I really like Choice as a versatile football player. Eventually, he should get his chance. Davis could still be the guy in Cleveland. And while I know for a fact the team doesn’t really view him as a true lead back, Bernard Scott (Cin, 26) is very talented, so worth a shot. If you really want to dig deep and look at younger players, the guys to look at are Andre Brown (NYG, 23), Aaron Brown (Det, 24), Javon Ringer (Ten, 23), Rashad Jennings (Jac, 25), and Mike Goodson (Car, 23). Brown has a chance to replace Brandon Jacobs as their power back some day, the Lions like (Aaron) Brown and he has speed, Ringer’s a nice little back who could replace LenDale White as the #2 soon, Jennings has a chance to be an effective 1^st and 2^nd down back at some point, and Goodson is pretty darn dynamic and could eventually get an opportunity to play.

We’ve yet to cover some bigger names in the business, but that’s likely because their chances of helping you beyond 2010 are in serious question – and they’re hardly locks to contribute this coming year. Players like: Clinton Portis (Was, 29), Willis McGahee (Bal, 28), Julius Jones (Sea, 29), LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ, 31), Derrick Ward (TB, 30), Larry Johnson (Was, 30), Maurice Morris (Det, 30), and Willie Parker (FA, 29) are in this mix. It’s really hard to make a strong case for any of these options in a keeper league, but McGahee is still relatively young without a ton of wear and tear and in a good situation. Ward doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear and could conceivably carry the load for a decent spell (he’s set to split time with Cadillac Williams in ’10). Portis should split time with Larry Johnson in Washington this year, which is a killer because he’s nearing the end and probably has one good year left in him, if that. Jones is probably done in Seattle, and they should draft a back early in April. I’ll also throw Correll Buckhalter (Den, 31) and Earnest Graham (TB, 30) in here. Buckhalter at least looks like he has a role in Denver for another year at least, but Graham’s career appears to be in the toilet right now (through no fault of his own). But that guy’s pretty darn solid and it’s not inconceivable that he gets another chance somewhere, so he might be worth stashing away in a larger keeper or dynasty league.

There really aren't many legit development prospects at the RB position out there right now, but Lex Hilliard could be someone to watch after a pretty impressive showing late in 2009

And this basically brings us to the bottom of the barrel at this position. I will start off by listing some younger players who have caught my eye and appear to at least have a chance, such as Chris Jennings (Cle, 24), Brandon Jackson (GB, 25), Lex Hilliard (Mia, 26), D.J. Ware (NYG, 25), Glen Coffee (SF, 23), and Mike Bell (Phi, 27). Bell’s a little older, but he has a role as a short yardage guy and can score TDs. I really liked what I saw from Hilliard, and he could be the #2 with Ronnie Brown in Miami soon. Jennings did look good in limited time in Cleveland, but there’s a logjam there, and he’s ultimately just a guy. I’m not that impressed with Coffee, but he could be a stop-gap guy for 1-2 years for the 49ers and at the least for now has value in case Frank Gore gets hurt. D.J. (formerly Danny) Ware is an intriguing prospect as well with his good power and receiving ability, but you could argue that he’s 4^th in their pecking order at RB right now.

We’re left with very little at this point, so it’s best to look at players who either have youth or clearly defined roles for 2010. Options like Quinton Ganther (Sea, 26), Mewelde Moore (Pit, 28), Le’Ron McClain (Bal, 25), Kevin Faulk (NE, 34), Peyton Hillis (Cle, 24), Leonard Weaver (Phi, 27), Lynell Hamilton (NO, 25), LaRod Stephens-Howling (Ari, 23) and J.J. Arrington (Den, 27) at least have a chance. Moore has a chance to get consistent touches behind Mendenhall in Pittsburgh, but at this point he needs an injury to a starter to have a chance. Hillis could carve a niche in Cleveland was possibly a goal line back and 3^rd down option. Faulk, Weaver, and Hamilton should have defined roles, at least.

I can’t say the same for Ryan Moats (Hou, 27), Sammy Morris (NE, 33), Ladell Betts (Was, 31), Justin Fargas (FA, 30), Fred Taylor (NE, 34), and Brian Westbrook (FA, 31). Betts is coming off a serious knee injury and could be done, while Morris and Taylor are well over 30 and in a committee. Fargas has some health issues, too. Moats is a decent prospect, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.

And finally, some more players who are at least young and at least deserve a mention: Brian Leonard (26), Kolby Smith (25), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (25), Gartrell Johnson (24), and Marcus Mason (26).

Unemployment numbers now include LT

John Hansen — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 17:32:38 +0000

We knew that was coming, so now the question is, where will LaDainian Tomlinson end up? We know he wants to keep playing, so he’ll be in the league. So where do we start?

We start with the good teams because to LT it’s all about the ring.

That’s why I think he’d be willing to accept a complementary role on a good team, and what better player to work behind than Adrian Peterson? That’s right, I think LT in Minnesota would be great for both parties (that is, assuming the Vikes lose Chester Taylor).

If the Vikings lose Chester Taylor, grabbing LT for the 2010 season would make a lot of sense for them.

If the Vikings do lose Taylor, they’ll need a #2 back. They’ll need a guy who can excel in short yardage (check), catch the ball well (check), pass protect (check) and carry the load for a few games if Peterson gets hurt (check). It would be great if that guy didn’t fumble (check). Especially if Brett Favre returns, why wouldn’t LT want to play for the Vikings? He’s all about the ring, and one could argue that if the Vikes had just dropped the ball 5 times and not 6 in the NFC Title game, they’d be the world champs.

Here are some other viable fits:

Philadelphia – I can see him here, but not really if Brian Westbrook is back, which he appears to be. We all know what Philly does on offense, so LT even if he was asked to carry the load for a stretch, wouldn’t be relied on much as a runner.

Green Bay – Backup Brandon Jackson has been a disappointment, and this is a really good team. With 1-2 additions on defense and some improvement on the OL, you could argue that the Packers should be one of the four favorites to win it all in 2010.

New England – LT hasn’t been a big fan of this organization, but those types of animosities tend to dissipate when you’re wearing the uniform. If Fred Taylor’s gone, they could certainly utilize Tomlinson in their committee.

Pittsburgh – If the Steelers lose Willie Parker, they’d still have a solid 3^rd down back in Mewelde Moore, but grabbing LT at a low price would be hard for them to pass up, especially since Rashard Mendenhall isn’t exactly a pillar of perfection at his position.

Tennessee – If the team opts to let LenDale White go, this could make some sense. For a good 6-week stretch, the Titans were as dangerous a team as there was in the league, and they have one of the best OLs in the business. The team does need to pull back a little from their usage or Chris Johnson.

There’s no question Tomlinson’s game is falling off fast. In addition to having injury issues, he’s lost a lot of his explosiveness. The first thing that went was the long runs, and that was a couple of years ago. Now that short-area burst (that specifically made him great) is gone and his balance also appears to be nearly shot. It’s a shame he can’t transform into more grinder, a power guy, but that’s not really his game. But there were flashes last year when he looked like the old LT, and he was still pretty effective near the goal.

It’ll be questionable if LT’s worth having on a fantasy team this year, but I definitely think he can help one of these good teams, even push them over the top.

First look at the RBs

John Hansen — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:20:45 +0000

As the draft quickly approaches, we’re trying to bang out as much of the magazine writeups as we possibly can, and I’ve just completed about the top-50 RBs. Of course, the draft will change a lot of things, so it’s hard to rank any player for certain. We have also not yet plugged in projections, which can change things once you see the raw numbers. But I do have some rankings and comments on the top-50 guys now, and I’m pretty comfortable with this list, knowing it’s very early.

So here’s what I got at this early stage.

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN – Has to be top dog this year given youth and talent but more action in the passing game would be nice.

2. Michael Turner, ATL – Carried the load all season with great effectiveness in run-heavy offense and was money near the goal so a no-brainer.

3. Maurice Drew, JAC – Major jump in receptions key for 3rd straight strong season and now he truly carries the load plus Holt will help their shaky team.

4. Matt Forte, CHI – Addition of Cutler should help them move the ball and create more opportunities for the slick and productive runner and receiver.

5. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD – Concerns about age are legit but offense is too strong to ignore and as bad as he was playing with a bad toe he was still 7th in PPG.

6. Steven Jackson, STL – He’s a horse and they are building offense around him but weak supporting cast won’t do him any favors and creates downside.

7. Chris Johnson, TEN – A special player who commands a healthy number of touches and seriously challenges defenses so the production will continue in run-based offense.

8. Brandon Jacobs, NYG – Injuries always a concern but he was okay last year and his 19 goal line carries were a great sign and no reason to believe he won’t continue to rack of TDs so a very solid starter.

9. Joseph Addai, IND – Colt line and overall offense should be better off plus depth behind him is poor so he will likely bounce back with plenty of touches.

10. Brian Westbrook, PHI – Still very dangerous and Eagle OL beefed up, which helps but should split time more this year and durability is always a major issue.

11. Clinton Portis, WAS – Age and wear and tear are big concerns but he always finds a way to produce and always gets the rock a ton.

12. DeAngelo Williams, CAR – Insanely productive and dynamic last year but numbers are bound to go with the stud-like Stewart commanding a healthy number of touches.

13. Marion Barber, DAL – Too many other qualities backs here but Barber’s role as their bruiser and goal line back is secure so 10+ TDs will be in order.

14. Frank Gore, SF – An elite talent but the production hasn’t been there on a bad team but a terrific #2 back in an offense that will be centered around him and the running game.

15. Reggie Bush, NO – His limitations are clear but was very productive in 2007 when he played and if healthy should be ready to take full advantage of his skills and favorable situation.

16. Steve Slaton, HOU – Texans won’t over-expose him but he’s too versatile and dangerous to keep off the field so a nice #2 back in potentially a potent offense.

17. Ryan Grant, GB – Not a special talent and lack of action in the passing game but good overall offense and he can be the workhorse, so a nice #2.

18. Thomas Jones, NYJ – His OL is solid and he will get the rock a ton, but he’s beyond 30 and with no Favre he’s bound to fall well short of last year’s production.

19. Ronnie Brown, MIA – Should be in better shape two years removed from knee injury and total yardage and TDs should slot him in the top-15 if he can stay healthy despite timeshare.

20. Pierre Thomas, NO – Not a stud and Bush will take away catches but a quality player in a good situation as long as they don’t add another bigger back.

21. Willis McGahee, BAL – Last year was a train wreck but expected to move back into more of a lead role and a good situation under Cameron on a good team.

22. Marshawn Lynch, BUF – Suspended three games for now and RBs Rhodes and Jackson are quality players, but the offense is bound to improve

23. Jonathan Stewart, CAR – Not someone you can count on as a starter but a high-end talent in a good spot so a good bet to finish in the top-25 this year.

24. Darren McFadden, OAK – Still shaky as a runner and an RBBC situation but he will get plenty of touches as runner and receiver and will have upside compared to the others in this range.

25. LenDale White, TEN – No reason to think he won’t be fed the rock near the goal, so the TDs should be there again but very limited otherwise.

26. Derrick Ward, TB – Brought in as a free agent and he’s bigger and more talented than anyone else here so he should get a healthy number of touches and a pretty decent situation.

27. Kevin Smith, DET – Finds a way to produce despite poor situation and team should be better but Mo Morris hurts his value and Smith lacks special qualities so best a #3 fantasy RB.

28. Larry Johnson, KC – Future up in the air but has to go up the list if he’s here still as he averaged 4.5 YPC in 2008 and this could be a solid situation even as he’s not a great fit for their offense.

29. Jamal Lewis, CLE – His 2008 season was closer to his normal production so don’t expect much from an aging back on a bad team but he will carry the load for sure.

30. Cedric Benson, CIN – Nothing special at all but if he carries the load as expected should be serviceable as Palmer is a major upgrade over last year’s QB.

31. Julius Jones, SEA – Production will be sporadic but worth having around for depth as he’ll likely carry the load with Morris gone.

32. Willie Parker, PIT – Production has decreased four years running and Mendenhall and Moore will limit production but he should still be top back.

33. Tim Hightower, ARI – Value a little up in the air with James status but should be considered a good bet to get at least half the carries and most of the goal line carries.

34. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT – Probably a year away from exploding and Parker should still start but he could be a Parker injury away from exploding.

35. Correll Buckhalter, DEN – Total numbers over his last three seasons are impressive so definitely has a chance to excel and stand out above the rest.

36. Earnest Graham, TB – A solid player but the addition of Ward destroys his value yet he will play and would be a nice starter if Ward got hurt.

37. Darren Sproles, SD – He averaged a TD every 15 touches last year so if he gets 10 touches a game he should be worth starting as a flex.

38. Felix Jones, DAL – Impressive yards per carry (8.9) and a TD every 10.7 touches last year so with more touches this year will come more production.

39. Fred Taylor, NE – Won’t carry the load and may not get the goal line carries so despite the good situation won’t likely do anything special.

40. Jamaal Charles, KC – Should at worst be their top receiver out of the backfield and possibly much more as he’s a good fit for a spread attack.

41. Ricky Williams, MIA – Brown trade rumors do bode well for him as he will at worst get 35-40% of the touches.

42. Leon Washington, NYJ – Coming off his best season he’s a threat o get a TD anytime and his role in the passing game is increasing so a nice depth option.

43. Sammy Morris, NE – Addition of Taylor does hurt a lot but he might still be their top goal line back since Taylor’s not a great one.

44. Chester Taylor, MIN – Keeps plugging along and does well with his touches but really need a Peterson injury to have serious value.

45. Fred Jackson, BUF – Nice player and Lynch suspended for three games but addition of Rhodes throws a monkey wrench into his fantasy plan this year.

46. Jerious Norwood, ATL – Had 5.1 yards per carry and a TD every 22 touches last year so he’s a viable flex starter.

47. Le’Ron McClain, BAL – A fine fall back plan again if McGahee falls off again otherwise won’t likely get nearly as many touches at FB this year.

48. Maurice Morris, DET – Quality player and the new regime did bring him in but he won’t likely get many goal line carries.

49. J.J. Arrington, DEN – Should have a role similar to Kevin Faulk’s for McDaniels and has some upside as a depth option for fantasy.

50. Justin Fargas. OAK – He still managed to rack up 853 yards on 219 carries and he’s back so will continue to get carries.

RB Keeper Overviews

John Hansen — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 19:38:47 +0000

It’s been a few weeks since I broke out my QB Keeper Overviews here, and it’s already time to update them. But before I do that I’m going to try to bang out the other key positions within the next week and catch completely up.

Next up, it’s the RBs.

At first glance, while there is good depth, I notice a little bit of a void when it comes to true studs at the position. So if you’re in a keeper league that retains only 3-4 players, I advise your approach your keepers much like you should have been approaching a standard redraft league the last two years: don’t take a RB just because he’s a RB and take the best players, period. Keep in mind, of course, the pool of attractive options will increase after the draft.

That said about the lack of quality at the top, I’m personally ranking some young guys who I do think are for real very high, even though they’ve really only “done it” for one year.

Let’s take a look at the top guys.

There aren’t many RBs who are clearly their team’s workhorse, so if you have one on your team, and he’s a young stud, then you keep him no matter what. Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, and definitely Maurice Jones-Drew fall into this category. I am worried about Jackson’s situation, but he is a horse, no doubt.

Despite a less-than-stellar situation, Maurice Jones-Drew is clearly one of the best keeper prospects in the league at the RB position.

Then I’d roll with those two young guys who have already proved to me that they are legit, and they are Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. Be happy if you have one of these guys in a keeper league. You can’t be much younger, and you can’t expect a rookie back to show more then these two did in 2008. Next up, we have some players who aren’t perfect in every way, but are still very young, talented, in a good situation, or all of the above. They are: Marion Barber, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, and Ronnie Brown. Barber’s going to be solid the next 3-5 years by default given his nose for the goal. Addai isn’t a pure stud, but you have to love the situation, while Gore is still an elite talent and young enough, so he deserves the love, despite his injury issues and shaky situation. Brown’s still young, too, and his potential next 2-3 years seems high, now fully healthy. I think the Dolphins needs to focus more on their running game in 2009, and maybe they will with Brown having another full season to return to previous form (although he looked fine to me last year and actually told me in November he was, in fact, 100%).

Things already get a little tricky after these guys, and you next have some quality players who have a lot of wear and tear on them, so they can’t be trusted for more than 1-2 more years. However, things change so quickly in the NFL, so there’s a lot to be said for even one more productive season. So while Clinton Portis, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Brian Westbrook may fade away sooner rather than later, they are worth holding on after the aforementioned younger studs. All three will be integral parts of their offense this year, and they could easily be productive for another couple of seasons. Of the three, Westbrook would be the biggest concern in terms of quickly breaking down.

If you’re looking to go for the gusto and play to win, Steeler RB Rashard Mendenhall would be a great choice.

Youth is a key factor for keeper leagues, of course, not only for the future, but also for the here and now. After all, a young back with fresh legs is always desirable right now. So the next group of players are mostly young, yet they have active roles right now, so they are desirable. DeAngelo Williams, Reggie Bush, Steve Slaton, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch, and Jonathan Stewart. Some of these guys are more desirable than others, like Williams, Slaton, and Stewart, who are good choices for long-term upside. But they might not be as productive this year as Jacobs, Grant, or Lynch. Who you keep from this group has to do with your risk tolerance and expectations, as it typically does in keeper leagues.

My next group of players is also a mixture of (somewhat) safe options for the next 1-2 years and upside choices for the future. If I really wanted to play to win, for example, I’d find a way to retain a guy like Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Darren McFadden, or even Darren Sproles. I’m not a big McFadden fan, but I do think he’ll get a lot of touches, perhaps similar to how Bush does in New Orleans, and he does have the potential to make explosive plays and put up good yardage numbers as a runner and receiver. I love Mendenhall’s potential, and I think he could be THE sleeper at the position if we’re talking the next 2-3 years or more. Jones and Sproles will likely always share time, especially Sproles, but I love the juice they bring to the equation.

Willis McGahee, Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson, LenDale White, and Derrick Ward should have value the next 1-2 years at least, so for now they look worthy. While Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, and Tim Hightower may not have big upside or a ton of value right now, all have a good chance to be their team’s lead back, so they are also very worthy.

Next up, some players you probably can’t rely on much longer than for 2009, but they are still worth consideration, especially in larger keeper or dynasty leagues. I’m talking about Willie Parker, Earnest Graham, Jamal Lewis, Cedric Benson, Julius Jones, Correll Buckhalter, Chester Taylor, and Fred Taylor.

Next I’d be looking at players who have the ability and potential in their current situations to surprise with more playing time/production than expected, like Fred Jackson, Jamaal Charles, Ryan Torain, and Tashard Choice. Or I’d settle for a younger player who is solid and should have value in a complementary role, like

Although you'll have to be patient with him, it can sometimes pay in a keeper league to acquire a guy who can flat out play, even if he's on the bench, and Choice can play

Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Ray Rice, or Le’Ron McClain.

We’re already about 50 deep here at RB, and it’s certainly hit-or-miss from here in terms of keeper league prospects. If I’m looking for some younger guys from here with some legit potential, then I’d like a guys like Michael Bush, Kolby Smith,

Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Hillis, J.J. Arrington, Brandon Jackson, and Jerome Harrison. None are sure things, but a guy like Smith could actually be a “starter” relatively soon, and guys like Bradshaw, Arrington, and Harrison should have active roles as peripheral weapons. If I’m looking more for the short-term, then there are some viable options for the next 1-2 years, such as Maurice Morris, Sammy Morris, Ricky Williams, Edgerrin James, Justin Fargas, and LaMont Jordan. Laurence Maroney is still worth a shot this late, and Kevin Faulk is always worth something in PPR leagues.

If you’re going deeper than this, you’re probably in a dynasty league and you’re looking for some players who have potential to grow into a more prominent role, and players like Danny Ware, Chauncey Washington, James Johnson, and Xavier Omon are decent options. Ware could be just a Brandon Jacobs injury away from starting for the Giants, while Johnson is a kid the Bengals like and kept on their practice quad this past year; he could factor into their mix soon. Washington could be the bigger back they use with MJD in Jacksonville, while Omon is a player the Bill do like.

Of course, there are still some veterans and some other younger guys who needs to be at least mentioned. Some of these guys are lost causes, but Chris Perry and

Selvin Young are still pretty young, and Dominic Rhodes and Mewelde Moore are still productive but their roles are unclear.

There’s little hope for the rest of the RBs in the league, quite frankly, but if you’re still looking to add a prospect or two you should again look for the younger guys, such as Antonio Pittman, Mike Hart, Jason Wright, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brian Leonard, Garrett Wolfe, DeShawn Wynn, Chris Henry, Clifton Smith, and Justin Forsett.

I really don’t feel good listing any other young guys, but there will be a few guys who emerge as at least viable for fantasy teams that can keep 5-6 RBs, and I will list them here in subsequent updates of this article.

Otherwise, the bottom of the barrel veteran-wise would be guys like Kevin Jones

Deuce McAllister, DeShaun Foster, Chris Brown, Kenny Watson, Tatum Bell, T.J. Duckett, Michael Pittman, Rudi Johnson, and Travis Henry. Some of these guys aren’t even in the league officially, so you know we’re digging deep.

Next up, the WRs. I’ll post that Friday.

2008′s Lesson Learned

John Hansen — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 19:12:28 +0000

I’m still trying to catch up with a ton of things just getting back from the Super Bowl late Monday night, but I’ll be starting to blog 2-3 times a week going forward, so if you’d like feel free to hook up the RSS feed for the blog so you can quickly see if I’ve made a new post.

One thing I’d like to do this year and re-post some of my whole articles to the blog, this way those who want to comment or chime in can. First up, here’s my annual “Lessons Learned” article posted on the site today.

2008′s Lessons Learned
Published, 2/4/09

I recently started perusing a certain social networking site, and while I’ve been catching up with long-lost friends and acquaintances from high school and years gone by, one thing is clear to me: I’m old.

It’s true. I was in my mid-20s when I started this site, and it’s been a 15-year expedition that has seen its share of ups and downs. From proclaiming Isaac Bruce the next Jerry Rice in the summer of ’95 to an embarrassingly bad ranking of Kevin Jones in ’05, one that I’ll never truly live down, I’ve learned plenty of lessons over the years (I’ll also contend to the grave that Jones wasn’t the same player in ’06 that he was in ’05).

The upside to getting older is that, of course, with age comes wisdom, and since I’m well on my way toward obsessing about this particular activity for two decades, I’ve got the wisdom market cornered – at least when it comes to fantasy football.

I have certainly learned that I can’t be correct about everything, and while I do whatever I can to minimize my margin of error, striving for flawlessness in this realm is, in many ways, an exercise in futility. But that constant struggle for excellence and precision has definitely made me a better analyst, so I’m certainly going to continue to scratch and claw my way to perfection. 2008 was, overall, a good year, and there were some key lessons learned. They will be added to my fantasy football arsenal of intelligence, and I truly believe that, with them in hand, I’ll be better off going forward.

So here are the lessons I learned – or ones that were seriously reaffirmed – this past year. I’m going to be harder to beat in 2009 because of them, and so will you.

It’s all about knowing who to target and when.

Everyone wants to see rankings, and cheat sheets, and Excel files populated with projections and comments – and I totally understand why – but ultimately, it’s more about knowing which players to target, and when.

You’ll find no better examples from 2008 than rookie RBs Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. We loved both players, and we glowingly praised them this summer, repeatedly. I thought about being bold and ranking them higher than we did, but it simply didn’t make sense to go “all in” on these guys and ranking them, say, in the late-teens. Both had some issues, with Johnson’s a timeshare with LenDale White, and Forte in what seemed to be an unfortunate situation in Chicago. Moreover, both were unproven rookies. We would have been heroes had we daringly ranked them, but I don’t think there’s a strong need to be haphazard when it comes to ranking questionable players. Bottom line, if you liked one or both based on our input or your own instincts, they could have easily still been yours, at a very fair price. So in their case, it was simply a case of being sold on the player’s abilities and being informed enough to target them in drafts, and doing so at about the right time. I know a ton of our readers got them, anyway, so while our ranking of them both might not seem great with the ’08 in our rearview mirror, our coverage of Johnson and Forte was a success. Both were being drafted in the 5-7^th rounds, and that’s right around where we had them slotted (late 5^th, early 6^th), but the difference is we had them as guys to snap up at this point. Guys to seriously consider.

As I’ve mentioned many times before, fantasy players, many of whom obsess over ADP in the preseason, are usually conditioned to take certain players in certain spots, so even though Johnson showed some serious game in the preseason and was climbing up draft boards as August faded, he was still a great value. In an expert league for NFL.com conducted in mid-August, I was feeling very strong in the 5^th round, and I took Johnson. That was a little early based on his ADP, and the pick caused some chatter in the draft room. But while I was (admittedly) a little distracted while making the pick, I saw Johnson on the board, and I was sold on him as a play-to-win pick. I took him, and I did win it all.

In the preseason, we produced (and will continue to produce) a top-200 overall listing of players, as we always do. Looking back at the list now, of course, it appears to be a little hit-or-miss, as these types of lists always do once the season is played out. We ranked Joey Galloway, for example, a few spots ahead of Kevin Walter. But on this list, we highlighted for easy access the players that we suggested readers target at various points of a draft. Walter was ranked 81^st overall, which was pretty solid, but he was highlighted as a player to target, whereas Galloway was not. We liked Walter, and we were pretty sold on him, so a lot of readers in the 8^th, 9^th, or 10^th round likely saw Walter standing out like a sore thumb, highlighted, and they took him. That’s exactly why we created this highlighted cheat sheet.

I know there have been a lot of people who’ve gone completely off our ranking sheet and done quite well, but it’s really impossible to create a perfect cheat sheet or overall ranking of players. There are so many factors to consider, such as when the players are generally being drafted, when they should be drafted, and if they should be drafted at all. So while I wish we ranked RBs like DeAngelo William (72), Steve Slaton (102), Tim Hightower (148), Derrick Ward (145), and Pierre Thomas (144) higher, they were really ranked about where they should have been ranked, based on where they were going in should have been going in drafts. The difference for these players and many others like them was they were flagged as players to target, and those who did target and draft them got great values.

Scouting trumps everything else.

I love how fantasy football parallels the NFL in so many ways. That’s one of the main reasons I’m not a fan of auctions. I fully comprehend the appeal, but in 2001 the Chargers didn’t bid higher than the other 31 teams to get LaDainian Tomlinson; it was a draft, he fell to their pick, and they wisely took him. On the other hand, if you do scout the players well, being in an auction, you can guarantee that you get those you like, which is good.

I’ve always fancied myself more of an NFL and personnel guy more than a numbers guy, and in 2008 I became even more mindful of how important effective player scouting can be. At the NFL scouting combine, there are players who are off-the-charts by the numbers, like Vernon Davis was in 2006. But Davis can’t play, at least he still can’t now. He’s a freak physical talent, but as an NFL player, he stinks.

When I draft, I prefer not to have a laptop on me, and I don’t need to utilize a program that uses some sort of algorithm to spit out the desired pick for me. Hell, I don’t even know what an algorithm is. Whenever I’m asked about my strategy for a

fantasy draft, I usually smarmily say that I “like to draft good players.” But in 2008, although always pretty obvious, that was certainly the way to go. I, of course, target players in good situations with good vibes in the preseason, but I had a very good year because I simply drafted a lot of good players. In the Rotobowl draft, I used one sheet of paper and drafted Brian Westbrook, Tony Romo, Brandon Marshall, Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe, Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Kevin Walter, Chris Cooley, Pierre Thomas, and John Carlson. They’re all good players, so it was relatively easy for me to pull the trigger on all of them, especially since some of them fortunately fell to me.

Participant preparation for fantasy drafts has never been more intense then it is right now, but those who focus on the numbers and don’t scout the actual player’s talent – and how that talent translates to the NFL – risk making the same mistake the 49ers made with Davis, who likely sold the Niners on numbers and his potential running and jumping in shorts at the combine. I’m certainly not going to let statistics tell me I should draft a player; I need, first and foremost, to see if the player has what it takes to excel on the field.

Here are some scouting tips we should have learned from 2008:

Runners need to make people miss – This summer we criticized Darren McFadden for his inability to do this consistently, and we praised Chris Johnson and Matt Forte for their ability to – and we’re glad we did both. You can succeed in the NFL if you fail to make unblocked defenders miss, but a RB will never be truly special if he cannot.

Smaller backs who play bigger than they are – I certainly realized that rookie Steve Slaton had a chance to make an impact in Houston, given the weak talent there. But I definitely had some questions about his ability to handle a larger workload in the NFL, since he was a smaller runner projected as a 3^rd-down back. But what many scouts missed and what we saw right away in the preseason, was that Slaton played much bigger than he is, and he was much tougher than others expected. Maybe he won’t be able to handle 18-20 carries a game going forward, but this is definitely why he was able to have sustained success in 2008. This is attribute is what we need to look at when analyzing smaller backs going forward.

Young receivers need to do everything right – From the moment Bronco wideout Eddie Royal got on the field for the Broncos in the minicamps and OTAs, he did everything right. He picked up the offense quickly, showed excellent route-running ability, and he exhibited great hands. We learned in 2008 that it’s still a steep learning curve for most rookie receivers, like Devin Thomas, for example, but excelling from Day One is certainly doable. Players like DeSean Jackson and Donnie Avery had success, mainly because they were needed playmakers for their team, but Royal was the true sleeper rookie receiver this year. In fact, he was THE sleeper receiver of the year, period. He was as a rookie because he did everything right and well.

TEs need to have some juice – I’ve been a pretty big supporter of Redskin TE Chris Cooley in the past, but I have to say, I’m not exactly enamored with the guy now. He could score 7-8 TDs any given season, so he’s still a solid fantasy option, but I was pretty taken aback this year watching him play. The guy looked slow to me, sluggish, and I did not like what I saw. Granted, it’s rare to see a TE who can really run well, but if there are any to be had, they’re the ones I’ll be targeting. That’s why I’ll continue to get behind Owen Daniels, even though he doesn’t score, and to an extent Tony Scheffler. I’m till enamored with their speed. Not so much with Marcedes Lewis, who runs like he has a piano on his back. I’ll look at Greg Olsen, Dustin Keller, and Visanthe Shiancoe, who can run. And I’ll avoid guys like Jeremy Shockey and Todd Heap, who really cannot anymore.

Understanding your scoring system and the tendencies of your league, drafting for value, analyzing a player’s system and supporting cast, and understanding ADP are all important elements to a successful fantasy draft, but properly scouting the actual players and understanding how their skills translate to the NFL, good and bad, is priority #1 to me.

Good vibes, bad vibes remain paramount.

This was another lesson reaffirmed in ’08, and not only that, it was slammed home. We busted our asses last summer producing as much content as a fantasy freak can consume, but the reality is that all we, in fact, had to do was profile all the good vibes, and warn everyone about the bad vibes, and that alone would have been an excellent preseason primer, as things turned out.

I’d like to take all the credit for telling subscribers to steer clear of high-end players like Steven Jackson and Willis McGahee, but the fact is that they simply had bad vibes surrounding them this summer, so to me they were to be avoided. Easy call. No one really foresaw the excellent season logged in by the Falcons, but if you look back and read my “Good Vibes/Bad Vibes” article from the summer, you’ll see the vibes in Atlanta were actually pretty damn good, and after re-reading that coverage, I’m not as surprised they did so well. The vibes in Cleveland started off just fine as camp opened, and then they progressively got worse. The vibes deteriorated so badly in August, that it truly ruined their season – and cost head coach Romeo Crennel his job. Luckily, for me, I avoided their players for the most part, and the one time I did take the plunge with QB Derek Anderson because he was an apparent value in the 7^th round, he was the cornerstone of my worst fantasy team of the season. In Anderson’s case, we didn’t back off him enough due to the bad vibes because the risk-reward still seemed palpable and acceptable. But if the vibes are horrific, there’s a good chance you’re going to have issues, so the affordability of the fantasy commodity means little. That’s a lesson learned for me.

After 2008, I think the Good/Bad Vibes thing needs to be elevated from a general fantasy tip and axiom, to a major rule of thumb or a law. The vibes in New England weren’t that good this past summer, for example. They weren’t good in Indianapolis, either. And if players like Tom Brady and Joe Addai (and even to an extent Reggie Wayne) can fall victim to the whole vibe deal, then we’re dealing with a serious trend in fantasy football. And forget about the Bengals, Rams, and Seahawks. As chronicled by us all preseason, the vibes there were terrible – as were their players this year as fantasy picks.

It still all starts up front.

I could talk here about the importance of the offensive lines every year, and the topic would be relevant. I usually do, but some years it’s more apparent than others, and it was very much so in 2008. We know the offensive lines are hugely important, and that we need to temper expectations for any offense when there are obvious issues up front, but here are two less obvious concepts culled from the ’08 experience that needs to be covered.

For one, it’s never that easy to project and anticipate a young or unproven line to come together beautifully, but it does happen each year for a few teams. This year, the best example was the Carolina Panthers. This young line was solidified by the addition of #1 pick LT Jeff Otah, and they added some quality depth elsewhere. They came together incredibly well, and this group was a key reason their running game dominated all season. In Denver, their OL was a huge question mark heading into the season, but they also came together well, thanks mainly to the addition of LT Ryan Clady, who quickly emerged as one fo the AFC’s better left tackles. The OLs in Baltimore, Atlanta, and even Chicago came together well and exceeded expectations. So the lesson I’ve learned is to study and analyze these OLs even more going forward. In fact, I’m thinking of approaching these units the way I approach single players in terms of projecting breakout success. Had I had this focus this past summer, I might have tabbed Carolina as “the” breakout OL unit, and I would have been even more encouraged by their running game. Seriously, accurately projecting a breakout line or two might be more important and useful to readers than, say, giving them the next Eddie Royal, so I’ll be looking for these potential breakout lines in the future.

On the negative side, it’s clear that some of the teams that disappointed this year offensively did so because of issues on the offensive line. We couldn’t really project it because most of their issues were in-season injuries, but the Jag line basically fell apart this past year, and their players disappointed because of it. RB Maurice Jones-Drew proved his mettle and value by still putting up good numbers, but he would have done even better had the line been in better shape. Even in Indy, the offense wasn’t nearly as dynamic, and they did struggle at times, due in large part to some injury problems up front. I, along with many analysts, projected the Bills to have a very good line, but thanks to the holdout of LT Jason Peters and some overall lackadaisical play, they underachieved, and that didn’t do RB Marshawn Lynch and the entire offense any favors. So the lesson here is to put even more stock into bad preseason vibes when it comes to the offensive lines, and to be a little more proactive when it comes to projecting the effectiveness and production of the skill players on teams with issues up front.

Rookies can and will do well.

If you’re one of those old school fantasy players who makes it a rule not to draft rookies, you missed out this year, big time. Falcon QB Matt Ryan’s first professional pass was a 62-yard TD strike to WR Michael Jenkins. He wasn’t a fantasy juggernaut, but he was much better and more productive than we’re accustomed to for a rookie, and Joe Flacco wasn’t that bad, either. They enjoyed excellent coaching and a solid supporting cast, but they did prove that a rookie QB can play at an elite level. When I asked Flacco about his development this past December, he interestingly said that it was best for his development to start right away. Some players at his position do need time, but the special ones are usually better off playing right away, and Flacco’s definitely special.

We’re used to rookie runners having success, and that was definitely the case this year. One interesting development is how the trend of committee backfields helped the rookies. In Tennessee, Chris Johnson was greatly aided by the presence of LenDale White, a bigger back who handled plenty of the tough inside running. Steve Slaton was in a bit of a committee early one, which helped him. Jonathan Stewart wasn’t a fantasy stud, but he did score 10 TDs, and it certainly didn’t kill him that he was playing behind DeAngelo Williams.

There were several receivers who did well, too, like Wideouts Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Donnie Avery, and TE John Carlson.

Overall, we’re likely seeing a trend in the NFL in that competition is so fierce that teams need contributions from young players sooner than ever. For many teams allowing a young player to sit on the bench for a year or two and learn is a luxury they simply cannot afford, so expect more young players at all the skill positions to continue to be very helpful for fantasy. Don’t stick to an antiquated fantasy axiom of year’s past that states rookies should be generally avoided; get these guys on your radar each summer.

Poor or inexperienced coaching can kill you.

I know I’m in the minority here, and some may think I’ve lost it, but I have to say, I think a little less of QB Tom Brady here in January of 2009 compared to September 2008. Just a tiny bit less. Not his fault at all, though. The guy’s obviously one of the all-time greats, one of the smartest players at the position of all time, and a big-time winner. But Matt Cassel this past year looked more and more like Brady as the season progressed. Cassel, before this year, hadn’t started a single game since high school, yet he was, dare I say, Brady-like down the stretch in ’08.

I don’t need to delve any deeper into this concept because the point is simple: Coaching is hugely important to a player’s success. The coaches in New England have had a large hand in Brady’s development, and he had better thank them at his Hall of Fame induction speech. And it was obviously good – check that, great – coaching that enabled Cassel to excel this past year, despite not starting a single game in the NFL or, for that matter, college, before stepping into the starting lineup for the Pats. Rookie QBs Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan were incredible stories this year, and it’s no surprise that both had veteran offensive coordinators in Cam Cameron and Mike Mularkey, who were absolutely instrumental in their rapid development. Even in Kansas City, the offense was surprisingly productive, and there’s no question that the experience of new OC Chan Gailey was one of the main reasons why. In Miami, this was a gimmicky offense that surprised a lot of people, but it was still run by a long-time offensive coach in Dan Henning. And finally, yet another good example, the Titan offense, while not exactly prolific, was very effective, and it was run by a veteran offensive coach in Mike Heimerdinger.

On the other hand, we’re seeing the progression of Raider QB JaMarcus Russell slowed – if not stifled – by poor coaching, and Redskin QB Jason Campbell hasn’t exactly blossomed yet, likely due to a lack of continuity from a coaching standpoint. In Detroit, we learned that we should not trust new offensive coordinators, especially former line coaches, who don’t have a great track record running offenses. Jim Colletto, who ran Detroit’s offense in 2008, didn’t have much of a track record, period, other than coaching the offensive line, and his offense was basically dreadful in 2008.

Overall, while there were a few surprises on offense this year, most of those teams that exceeded expectations did so with veteran coaches/coordinators, or in proven systems. Most of the offenses that got it done in 2008 were run by proven coordinators, like for the Green Bay Packers, which helped QB Aaron Rodgers a lot. Most of the teams that stumbled offensively had some coaching issues and/or were running systems that weren’t exactly proven.

We always do extensive overviews of each year’s coaching changes, but we’ll be breaking this year’s moves down even more in-depth because there have been and will be a lot of changes (almost a third of the league). There will be a lot of coaches with questionable credentials, too, so recalling the lesson learned in 2008 of how important good coaching is will be an incredibly huge key to your fantasy success in 2009.

If possible, look for someone special

We all want someone special in our lives, right? Well I want that, and for fantasy I always want to draft someone who is special on the field, particularly someone who isn’t exactly a proven commodity and is, therefore, a value.

Last year, the example was RB Adrian Peterson. We practically begged people to draft him, and that was a very easy call because he was obviously very special. His special qualities certainly came to the surface last year, and quickly. You’ll find no better example from this past year than Lion WR Calvin Johnson. I loved the guy’s potential this summer – because he’s obviously a special player – but I have to admit that I was floored that he continued to produce week after week, despite the horrendous situation in Detroit. It didn’t matter who was throwing him the ball, and four different QBs did. That’s a great example of why it’s always advisable to target players who are special or potentially special because, while a guy like Marques Colston is very good, I’m not sure he’d be scoring weekly with the likes of Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper (in the system for merely weeks before getting onto the field in 2008) tossing him the pill, as Johnson did.

In 2008 we learned to be very aggressive when it comes to drafting special talents, like Calvin Johnson

And next year, I’ll have no qualms drafting Titan RB Chris Johnson in the 1^st round, even though he’ll likely still be sharing the ball with LenDale White. Johnson’s truly special, so he’ll be more than fine. I’m usually not thrilled with taking my TE too early, but snagging Charger Antonio Gates can never be considered a bad pick, simply because he’s special, he’s the cream of the crop at the position. I used to think Panther RB DeAngelo Williams was special, but while I didn’t discredit him this summer, I backed off that opinion after his first two (so-so) seasons in the league. The Panthers did, too, and that’s why they drafted Jonathan Stewart in the first round last year. They didn’t know Williams would be that good, there is no debate, or else they wouldn’t have used a #1 pick on a back. But Williams did turn out to be special, and I did get him in several leagues because I did still think he at least had upside potential, given my initial feelings that he was, in fact, special.

It goes without saying that drafting elite players is ideal, but the lesson learned here is to take a leap of faith with players who aren’t exactly proven but potentially special, like the two Johnson’s in 2008. More often than not, when you do, you’re rewarded handsomely, so if you see someone special, don’t get too caught up in hi ADP numbers. If you want him, take him, even a round too early; play to win.

The lesson is to also be at least somewhat wary of players who really aren’t special. Although he finished very close to where we had him projected in the preseason at his position, Bill RB Marshawn Lynch was really a bit of a disappointment. He wasn’t awful, of course, and his line let him down a little bit, but ultimately his problems this year stem from the fact that he’s simply not special. Detroit’s Kevin Smith isn’t, either, and neither is Green Bay’s Ryan Grant and Seattle’s Julius Jones. You can expect only so much from players who don’t truly challenge defenses with serious raw talent.

It’s probably best to hold off on your QB.

I preached holding off on drafting your QB for literally a decade, and the one time I strayed from this approach, around the turn of the century (2000, of course; I’m not that old), I got burned by drafting Kurt Warner in the 1^st round. Lately, though, I’ve warmed up to picking a stud – as long as it’s not too high. I mean, no one who took Saint QB Drew Brees late in the 2^nd or third round was complaining, right? Cowboy QB Tony Romo, however, didn’t work out so well. Peyton Manning was his usual solid self, so targeting a “stud” QB wasn’t such a bad idea, as long as it wasn’t in the first or even early in the second round. Of course, as we know, those who just couldn’t pass on Patriot QB Tom Brady got burned.

Brady made plenty of sense coming off his monster year, but the problem with drafting Brady or any QB in the first round is that someone else has a good chance to draft a player at this position who equals or exceeds your guy’s numbers – about 6-7 rounds later, or more. We can probably assume each year that there will be a running back or two who is drafted late and puts up big numbers, but it’s rare when a RB is drafted beyond the 6^th or 7^th round and puts up huge numbers from day one, very rare. Not the case with the quarterback position, however, which is the main reason it’s “probably” wise to hold off on a QB. In early July Adam Caplan and I did a podcast on breakout players, and we featured three guys who could potentially break out and put up starter’s numbers despite being later picks. As it turned out, all three players – Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Schaub – put up very healthy numbers and were quite valuable. Not only that, but Philip Rivers and Kurt Warner put up spectacular numbers and weren’t even on anyone’s radar this summer until at least the 7^th round, likely later.

I’m still all about grabbing nothing but impact players in the first few rounds, even if it is a QB, and I did this past year win four leagues in which I took my QB early (2^nd or 3^rd), but there’s no question that, at the very least, there is absolutely no reason to overextend yourself by taking one of the elite players at the position too early. As for taking a QB with your first pick, as always, I highly advise against it.

You are what you are.

You get to a point in the NFL at which you are what you are. Saint RB Reggie Bush isn’t a featured back, for example. It’s not happening, and it’s never going to happen. He can be very deadly, and he could very well be a fantasy stud next year, but he’ll most likely be a much better PPR player more than anything else the rest of the way because he is what he is: a satellite player. And while I definitely still like Matt Schaub, he, too, is what he is. The guy was 7^th in the league in fantasy points per game, and he put up very healthy numbers in 9 of his 11 games, but he’s flimsy and can’t stay healthy, and he needs things around him to be ideal. Maybe Schaub’s protection improves and he logs a monster season or two with 30+ TD passes – he’s certainly capable of that – but based on what we’ve seen from him his last two seasons, we can’t expect great things over the long haul like we can for a guy like, say, Jay Cutler. Cutler is what he is, too; he’s a player who comes around too infrequently in the NFL: He’s a stud.

Sometimes, an average player looks better than he is due to an excellent situation around him, and sometimes a better player looks average due to a poor one. But for all NFL players, at some point, with at least a couple of years in the league, we have to say they are what they are, and the lesson here is to not get too carried away with a player and hope you can will him to produce for you if he doesn’t have it in him. For example, with Schaub, I still like him, but it’s time to assume going forward, at least for now, that he’s probably not someone you can trust. And this past year, probably my biggest mistake was trying to will Bronco RB Selvin Young into being a fantasy producer. I still think the guy’s got some serious game, and he really was solid when he played, but even after his lone 2007 season, I should have realized he was what he was, and that was not a true lead back in the NFL. The Mike Shanahan factor certainly didn’t help him, either, and getting behind a Bronco back (again) was probably my biggest miscalculation of all.

Quarterbacks need to be consistent.

It’s always ideal to have consistency with your players, obviously, but it’s worth noting in 2008 that there were basically the QBs who were very consistent, and those who were not. There were various factors that enabled these consistent players to put up solid numbers each week – like Kurt Warner’s savvy and excellent receivers – but we clearly had a line in the sand this year separating the guys you could count on and the guys you were not able to count on.

Cowboy QB Tony Romo has a lot of juice for fantasy, but we should have ranked Drew Brees over him simply because Brees is more consistent, period. At this point, a sparking Super Bowl performance aside, we should question whether or not Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger can be consistent, since he’s been up-and-down the last three seasons. I’ll definitely consider the fluctuations in his play and production when ranking and projecting him in 2009. Bronco QB Jay Cutler is very desirable for many reasons, and his consistency this year was very good, so to me he’s emerged as an elite fantasy option. And I was really, really impressed with Packer QB Aaron Rodgers’ consistency in 2008. I’m totally sold on Rodgers as a consistent QB we can count on, so I love him in 2009. I have struggled in the past with Charger QB Philip Rivers’ consistency, and I’m not 100% sure he’s going to keep it up in 2009 and beyond, but you have to be impressed with the incredible consistency he showed this past year, so he deserves a lot of love in 2009. I will continue to like Houston QB Matt Schaub, too, even though he’s not perfect. But he has the ability and potential to be very consistent, and he generally was in 2008. They may not have been great fantasy guys, but I think it bodes well for QBs Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco that they were so consistent. So most likely, I will target one of those guys this coming year over, say, Jake Delhomme, who is Mr. Inconsistency. I’m not 100% sold on Chief QB Tyler Thigpen yet, and he does have to show he can play effectively under center, but I really liked his consistency this year. He challenged opposing defenses each week, and he dictated to them as opposed to vice versa, so he’s also on my short list of young QBs who have a chance to be impact players.

On the other hand, other than some big-name vets I haven’t listed, such as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, and even Donovan McNabb, the jury is still out on just about all the other QBs in the league when it comes to consistency, and I learned in 2008 to be wary of those guys. I just don’t want someone who is erratic, like Derek Anderson proved to be in 2008. I don’t want a player who can’t consistently sit in the pocket and see the whole field and make quick decisions and throw the ball from the pockets. Basically, I don’t want Jeff Garcia, or anyone like him. And in the future, I’m going to give even more respect to those players who have proven to be consistent.

Positional depth is something to look at.

Everyone kind of caught on to the notion that RBs haven’t been quite as desirable for a number of reasons lately, namely the proliferation of backfield committees. But the main reason I wasn’t all about the running backs early in drafts this year was simply because I saw incredible depth at RB, and also because I figured others were catching on and devaluing the backs more than ever before. The best example for me was in the Rotobowl league. I didn’t exactly pounce on the wideouts, but I did take three with my first five picks. Amazingly, I was still able to draft an excellent trio of backs in Brian Westbrook, Matt Forte, and Chris Johnson. In other years, I wouldn’t have dared to wait until the 6^th round to take my #2 RB, but I saw excellent positional depth, and I looked to take advantage.

So each year, it’s important to analyze the position depth, or the position scarcity, and draft accordingly. Doing this is one more thing you can do to give yourself an advantage over your fellow drafters, and gaining as many advantages as possible is always ideal.

Rent-a-players rule.

Unless you’ve had the draft of a lifetime, there’s usually at least a hole or two on your fantasy roster, likely a third receiver or a flex starter, but while 2008 wasn’t a great year for waiver wire pickups who were golden all season, there was a ton of players who put up nice numbers for a decent spell, and I found myself rotating these guys in and out of my lineup all season in many of my leagues, and with a lot of success.

If a player is rolling with the production, I’m all about riding the guy for as long as I can, and this past year we saw guys like Peyton Hillis score four weeks in a row, so he was very helpful for fantasy owners who needed a lift at RB. Saint RB Pierre Thomas was absolute money the final six games of the season, so riding him while he was hot paid even bigger dividends.

But the best example of effective rent-a-players in ’08 was at the WR position. Because of the nature of the position and the general inconsistency we typically see with #2 and #3 wideouts, this position was a great source of temporary production. For example, when Chris Chambers was hurting around mid-season, I picked up Malcom Floyd and used him while I could. He scored in two of the three games I used him, and then I discarded him like a mushy banana peel. I really liked what I saw from Raven wideout Mark Clayton this year, so I picked him up in a bunch of leagues. The one week I needed him, he came through big time with 5/164/1 against the Bengals. And when I needed a third wideout to produce for him in a few of my leagues, I turned to 49er Isaac Bruce, who came through for me down the stretch with six solid games.

The WW is, of course, hugely important for fantasy, and we all like to get a guy who’s picked up and then who blows up, like Buc WR Antonio Bryant this past year. But rental players are the next best thing. More important, the lesson learned is to target rent-a-players for a short-term fix who are in good situations. Floyd was handy, but only for a few weeks. But Saint wideout Lance Moore was looking like the best example of a productive rent-a-player this year while Marques Colston and Reggie Bush missed time, yet he was much more than that. So these quick-fixes can be very helpful, if not the key to fantasy glory. So even if you don’t need help at a particular position, and if you have some roster space, it’s always wise to look into these types of players and if possible snap them up, just in case.

Forget about DTs, and this time I mean it.

We’ve done a good job over the years of uncovering some value defensive teams, but I have over the last few years become somewhat enamored with selecting an elite fantasy D, as a knockout blow. Like if I feel I’m killing it in the draft, I’ve said recently that I have no qualms going for the gusto, and selecting a top tier fantasy defense, to assemble the best possible starting lineup. In years past I usually advised against taking a DT too early.

Forming the most devastating starting lineup as possible can never be considered a bad thing, so as long as you’re not over-extending yourself and paying too hefty a price, like people have done in the recent past with the Bear defense, targeting an elite fantasy defense isn’t exactly a bad idea.

The problem is, in 2008, there really wasn’t an elite fantasy D. Not only that, it was a brutal season for fantasy defenses overall. It’s hard enough to project success for an individual player, let alone a whole unit, so I think we’re much better off simply holding off on the position and targeting the potential values. That’s a little hit or miss, but if you hit on a unit we liked, like the Eagle defense this past year, you’re golden. If you miss, like the Cowboy defense, you can still find an option on the WW, or simply go with the group that is or has a chance to get the job done for a decent stretch. The Cowboys disappointed me greatly, but they were actually the 4^th best fantasy defense in the second half of the season, so they were eventually a worthy starter in ‘08.

Especially if current trends prevail, there’s simply no reason to overpay for a defense. For example, we had the Bear and Jet defense as values to target later, and both finished in the top-5 in a typical scoring system. They weren’t all that, but they were still better than the Chargers and Vikings, the consensus top two fantasy Ds. And in such a bad year for the defenses, most fantasy players will back off on taking a fantasy defense too early in ’09, so that’s yet another reason to hold off on the position. If your pick doesn’t work out, there will surely be solid options on the WW.

League setups can drive you crazy.

And finally, a soapbox item to close out the 2008 season. Fantasy can be frustrating enough, even with an ideal league setup and scoring system, so I have no idea why some fantasy players seem to be perfectly willing to abuse themselves by playing in lame leagues. I may be a pretty good fantasy player, but if I’m asked any particular week who I’d rather start between Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, and Brandon Marshall, I’d like to cop out and say all of them. I noticed a lot this year, subscribers having stacked teams with a roster strong enough to field two competitive starting lineups, and I was stuck in this fantasy quagmire myself in a league I was running for a friends of mine. Each week, I had to decide to start two of the following: Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Steve Slaton. It was usually a nightmare, and I made several bad lineup decisions. But those decisions could have been avoided if only the league had a little more flexibility. For one, you have to play in a league that has a flex starter, and I actually prefer two, like they allow in the Rotobowl league. There’s no reason a team that drafts well should be punished; that’s no fun, so I’m a big proponent of expanding starting lineups. You still have to deal with lineup decisions, injuries, and the byes, but I’d prefer to be rewarded for drafting well rather than punished.

I’m also big on the whole PPR thing, as I’ve said for damn near a decade, at least for WRs and TEs. Let’s face it; wideouts and tight ends disappoint more often than not, but a great equalizer can be the PPR format. If a receiver is a good player, he’ll get targeted a ton, and he’ll catch a lot of passes, so if you draft a good receiver, you almost always get rewarded in this format, even if he doesn’t score a ton of touchdowns. For example, Viking wideout Bernard Berrian scored 141 points in a standard yardage/TD league this past year, which was 2 more fantasy points than Eddie Royal. But don’t you think Royal was a better player this year? He was, and he was more consistent, so in a PPR league, if you drafted Royal over Berrian, you would have been rightly rewarded. Berrian was 18^th in a standard scoring system with Royal 20^th. In a PPR league, Royal was 16^th, while Berrian was only 26^th. Berrian didn’t even catch 50 passes this year (48), so for him to be ranked higher than Royal, who caught 91, was a little out of whack.

In short, since my favorite aspect of fantasy football is selecting good players, preferably undervalued and sleepers, and having a successful draft, the last thing I want to do is be frustrated because of league setup limitations. Frustrated because I did, in fact, actually draft too many good players.

Well that’s what I have for the 2008 season in terms of lesson learned. It was a good year, but that actually makes me nervous. The NFL and fantasy can by very cyclical. It was such a bad year for RBs in 2007, for example, that we were bound to see a lot of surprises in 2008, and we did. But expectations are up now for 2009, so we’re bound to see some disappointments, perhaps a lot of them.

Rest assured I’m not going to take anything for granted this coming year. I’m going to carefully consider all the lessons learned in ’08 in and in years past. I’m going to do everything I can to make the best calls possible because the greatest lesson of all I’ve learned in my 15 years covering fantasy is that the NFL truly does stand for the National Fake-You-Out League.

We can’t hope to be lucky; we must prepare to be successful.