It’s always difficult to evaluate any acquisition involving a troubled player or anyone with issues off the field, but if we can assume the Dolphins did as much due diligence as possible and that Marshall’s going to make minimal waves for Bill Parcells and head coach Tony Sparano, this is an excellent move for Miami. Especially since their division rival in New York added wideout Santonio Holmes this week, the Dolphins simply had to find a way to add a legit #1 receiver for their offense, and they certainly did so by bringing Marshall into the fold.

Starting QB Chad Henne is a work in progress, but he has all the tools to be a nice NFL starter for years to come. He has a strong arm, showed the ability last year [...]]]> The Broncos today traded WR Brandon Marshall to the Dolphins for a 2^nd round pick in next week’s draft, along with what is reportedly another 2^nd round pick in 2011’s draft. Marshall was a restricted free agent until yesterday, when he signed his $2.521 million tender from the Broncos, which facilitated the trade. And today, he signed a massive 4-year, $47.5 million extension with Miami, which included $24 million guaranteed.

It’s always difficult to evaluate any acquisition involving a troubled player or anyone with issues off the field, but if we can assume the Dolphins did as much due diligence as possible and that Marshall’s going to make minimal waves for Bill Parcells and head coach Tony Sparano, this is an excellent move for Miami. Especially since their division rival in New York added wideout Santonio Holmes this week, the Dolphins simply had to find a way to add a legit #1 receiver for their offense, and they certainly did so by bringing Marshall into the fold.

Starting QB Chad Henne is a work in progress, but he has all the tools to be a nice NFL starter for years to come. He has a strong arm, showed the ability last year to throw the ball in the right place, where only his receiver can catch it, and there is a calmness and poise to his game. He just looked comfortable, and he should be even more comfortable with a dominant and physical presence in Marshall on the field with him. Marshall has the size they needed at receiver, and while he’s not a dynamic game breaker, there’s no question he’s a receiver who can carry an offense on his back, and he’s the type of player who can make a young QB better because he’s such an imposing weapon to a defense and an appealing target for a QB due to his great size and physicality. Henne was pretty efficient last year, and he was much more accurate in the short area than expected, so I like the fit.

Despite being new to the team and playing with a young QB, there's a lot to be said for the heavy volume Brandon Marshall will handle as the new go-to guy in Miami's passing game, so he's still pretty desirable

Marshall will clearly improve their passing game greatly, and now their collection of #2 and #3 WRs will look much better with Marshall taking on the #1 spot. For example, Davone Bess can now focus entirely on his work in the slot, and WRs Brian Hartline and Greg Camarillo – both pretty solid but miscast as top targets – can battle for playing time alongside Marshall. Neither may be ideal #2s, but they should be good enough for now. This move also helps TE Anthony Fasano, who came on a little once Henne took over the job last year. Miami isn’t exactly set now on offense, but they have the ingredients needed to have more of a complete offense, especially if they keep Ted Ginn and find a way to take advantage of his speed and playmaking ability, even in a limited role. In addition, this move is yet another step toward moving more toward a conventional offense. We’ll probably see some Wildcat at times, but our contention has always been that they resorted to trickery on offense because they didn’t have the personnel to run a “real” offense. They probably do now. This move certainly helps the values of RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. They may not be used quite as much, but Marshall will help them move the ball and extend more drives and score more TDs. Miami actually led the league in plays from scrimmage in 2009, but they threw only 15 TD passes and were only 20^th in passing yards.

Expectations do need to be lowered a little for Marshall, but he’s still a viable #1 fantasy receiver. He’s not perfect and comes with some red flags (he could be facing a suspension if he has any other issues), but there’s a lot to be said for how much of a go-to guy he should be here. Like a lead back who truly carries the load for his team (like Cedric Benson in Cincy), Marshall’s volume should be extremely high, and he can handle it. If healthy all year he’ll easily finish in the top-10 in the league in terms of pass targets. And I see no reason why he can’t put up about 85/1100/8 in his first season here. Henne’s still only a fantasy backup, but he has a chance to finish in the top-15 if healthy now that he has Marshall. He’s probably just a top-20 guy, but that’s not a bad backup. Bess should be quite active and productive in the slot and should be good for 65-70 receptions even with Marshall commanding a ton of pass targets each week. Camarillo and Hartline probably aren’t worth drafting while Fasano is a decent backup TE. Although their touches should go down a tad, I wouldn’t downgrade RBs Brown or Williams based on this move.

As for the Broncos, they are obviously left with a major hole in their offense and they should be in the WR business in next week’s draft, and early in the draft. This is a team that should lean heavily on its running game, so that’s decent news for RBs Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter. But right now an offense led by Kyle Orton (or, gulp, Brady Quinn) featuring a collection of aging #3 WRs (Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley, and Brandon Lloyd) does not excite me at all. If there is a big winner here, it has to be WR Eddie Royal. He should be a good fit for this system, and even if they draft a WR in the 1^st round, I have to believe Royal’s going to be extremely active. Orton is serviceable in the short to intermediate passing area, so Royal could be poised to haul in a ton of balls this year, perhaps as many as 85-90 if all goes well. So Royal’s value looks to be on the rise in PPR leagues. He should be a nice option as a #3 coming off his horrendous 2009 season.

Here’s how I’d rank the fantasy values of the key players on both teams.

Miami

1. Brandon Marshall
2. Ronnie Brown
3. Ricky Williams
4. Davone Bess
5. Chad Henne
6. Anthony Fasano
7. Brian Hartline
8. Ted Ginn
9. Greg Camarillo

Denver

1. Knowshon Moreno
2. Eddie Royal
3. Correll Buckhalter
4. Jabar Gaffney
5. Kyle Orton
6. Tony Scheffler (we’ll have to see where he stands in the summer here)
7. Brandon Lloyd

There's no doubt he's been frustrating, but those in keeper leagues have to recognize Calvin Johnson's special talent and act accordingly. Having a legit QB in the fold also helps.

You would think there would be more slam-dunks at the top of this position, but other than Andre Johnson (Hou, 28), Calvin Johnson (Det, 24), Reggie Wayne (Ind, 31), and Larry Fitzgerald (Ari, 27) there aren’t many obvious no-brainers. These four guys are, based on their talent (especially Calvin) and their good situations.

There are certainly some other highly desirable options like Greg Jennings (GB, 26), Roddy White (Atl, 28), and Miles Austin (Dal, 26). It may [...]]]> The WR position is a little different than the QB and RB positions in that there’s a lot more depth. You can go at 100+ deep at the position and still find viable options. Of course, with great depth will come fewer true studs, so a higher priority should be placed on the elite options at the position, the serious go-to guys. In addition, your scoring system can greatly affect the fantasy landscape at this position, and those in PPR leagues will find certain players are much more attractive than those in non-PPR leagues.

There's no doubt he's been frustrating, but those in keeper leagues have to recognize Calvin Johnson's special talent and act accordingly. Having a legit QB in the fold also helps.

You would think there would be more slam-dunks at the top of this position, but other than Andre Johnson (Hou, 28), Calvin Johnson (Det, 24), Reggie Wayne (Ind, 31), and Larry Fitzgerald (Ari, 27) there aren’t many obvious no-brainers. These four guys are, based on their talent (especially Calvin) and their good situations.

There are certainly some other highly desirable options like Greg Jennings (GB, 26), Roddy White (Atl, 28), and Miles Austin (Dal, 26). It may be premature to list a guy like Austin among the truly elite, but I think he’s the real deal, and I like his youth and the mojo he has with his QB. Jennings is in a great situation with QB Aaron Rodgers, while White’s clearly a legit #1 NFL wideout with a nice option at QB in Matt Ryan.

The next players are a notch below the guys listed above, but they’re still highly desirable. Players like Vincent Jackson (SD, 27), Brandon Marshall (Den, 26), DeSean Jackson (Phi, 23), Marques Colston (NO, 27), Randy Moss (NE, 33), and Sidney Rice (Min, 24). Moss is getting up there, but until he really falls off, you have to be encouraged with his potential. I really like Rice as an emerging stud, but he’s being held back here due to the potential issues at the QB position. Even if Brett Favre plays in 2010, Rice has got an issue in 2011 because Favre won’t be there (we think). But he’s still an excellent keeper. (Vincent) Jackson’s got some character issues, but he’s a young stud in a great situation if he stays in SD. Obviously, Marshall’s a major wildcard. Talent-wise he’s a top-5 guy, and he’s very young, but his future is up in the air, and until further notice, you worry about off-field implosions. But he’s hard to pass up based on his potential to be dominant. Also, (DeSean) Jackson’s clearly a very good prospect. It looks like the Birds will be set at the QB position for years to come, so given his explosive potential, he’s obviously a really nice option. Colston’s not a beast talent, but he’s more attractive playing with QB Drew Brees, and he’s obviously a fine keeper.

He doesn't have a set role and his QB situation could be weak in the near future, but Percy Harvin's simply too good to pass up in a keeper league

Next up we have a combination of older players still getting it done, like Chad Ochocinco (Cin, 32), Steve Smith (Car, 31), Anquan Boldin (Bal, 29), Wes Welker (NE, 29), Hines Ward (Pit, 34), and Donald Driver (GB, 35) and young guys who look very promising, like Santonio Holmes (Pit, 26), Steve Smith (NYG, 25), Michael Crabtree (SF, 22), Dwayne Bowe (KC, 25), Mike Sims-Walker (Jac, 25), Robert Meachem (NO, 25), Jeremy Maclin (Phi, 21), Percy Harvin (Min, 22), Hakeem Nicks (NYG, 22). Whom you keep from this group depends on your expectations for the short-term and the long-term. If you’re ready to seriously challenge for a title now, guys like Ochocinco, Smith, and Boldin are great options (Welker obviously is, too, but his injury situation is a major concern for now). Even Ward and Driver, although not quite as appealing as those other players, are attractive, despite their age, because they are in good situations and are still playing at a high level. I do tend to target young studs, of course, and Crabtree, Meachem, and Harvin really stand out there. Crabtree isn’t the finished produce and doesn’t have the greatest QB throwing him the ball, but he has #1 NFL wideout written all over him. Meachem’s a legit upside guy with tons of talent, and Harvin looks like a do-it-all player who could be special. Holmes, Sims-Walker, Bowe, and Maclin may not have the potential to be truly elite, but they are very solid, and young, so they are fine keepers. Holmes and Bowe are very talented, but they have some concerns due to some inconsistencies in their careers thus far – and possibly some character issues. Maclin looks like a really nice player who showed a lot as a rookie, but he does have to show he can produce on a consistent basis over the course of a full season. I also really like Nicks, so while he has a lot to prove still as well, I’m comfortable placing him in this high-end group. He has the potential to be comparable to what Boldin’s been over the last 4-5 years, which is an excellent #2 fantasy wideout who at times produces like a #1.

If you’re looking for some viable guys who can (probably) rely on for production for the short-term, Antonio Bryant (Cin, 29), Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ, 28), Braylon Edwards (NYJ, 27), Terrell Owens (FA, 36), Derrick Mason (Bal, 35), Lee Evans (Buf, 29), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Sea, 32), and Bernard Berrian (Min, 29) are decent options. I don’t feel really great about any of them, honestly, but Bryant’s talented, Cotchery underrated, and Mason is still productive. Edwards and Owens could certainly be helpful, but Edwards’ career seems to be stuck in mediocrity, and the aged Owens doesn’t even have a team as of this writing (3/29). Houshmandzadeh and Berrian are really just #3 fantasy WRs (at best) for the next 1-2 years. Evans is a good player, but he has been stifled by poor QB play. At least he’ll be the unquestioned #1 in Buffalo for the near future.

You're taking a leap of faith on an unproven player, but Devin Aromashodu showcased excellent potential and there could be a clear path to a starting job in Chicago due to his size - plus the team is high on him

I’d be more inclined to go for some of the younger options in their tier or realm of players, with guys like Pierre Garcon (Ind, 24), Kenny Britt (Ten, 21), Steve Breaston (Ari, 27), Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle, 23), Eddie Royal (Den, 24), Donnie Avery (Stl, 26), and each of the three Bear guys in the mix for starting jobs: Devin Aromashodu (Chi, 26), Devin Hester (Chi, 27), and Johnny Knox (Chi, 23). I’m high on Garcon, in part due to his talent and what he showed in 2009, but also because of his excellent situation. If he can retain a starting job on the outside (to be determined), he should only get better. Britt has elite tools and could be a nice #1 NFL wideout, but his production may be somewhat limited in Tennessee and with the erratic Vince Young under center. Breaston’s a nice player, but he has to prove he can excel on the outside – and with the shaky Matt Leinart at QB. Massaquoi looks like a solid prospect, but he’s probably best cast as a #2 for the Browns (who are looking for speed opposite him). For now, though, he’s their top guy, and he should be helpful. Royal’s obviously coming off a dreadful season, but if Brandon Marshall departs, Royal’s role should increase greatly, plus you don’t catch 90+ balls as a rookie and not be legit (unless your name is Michael Clayton, who actually caught only 80 balls as a rookie in 2004). Avery’s pretty decent, and if he can get better QB play, I can see him settling in as a really nice #2 fantasy wideout, a guy who’s routinely ranked in the low-20s for fantasy each season. As for the Bear guys, I actually like Knox the best, based on the elite potential I saw from him last year. But he might be stuck as their #3 under Martz. If that’s the case, then Aromashodu should start. I’m not down on Hester, but I feel Aromashodu, at this point, has better starter potential in that he has better size and also good speed. He projects as a starter, and if he’s starting for Mike Martz and continues to grow, he could be this year’s Miles Austin. The Bears are high on him, so I’d seriously consider him if possible. Hester’s a little hard to get a handle on. He still has excellent potential, but other than (surprisingly) showing an ability to be an effective possession guy in 2009, his overall performance left me a little flat. He’s at best a #3 fantasy wideout for the long-term. From there he could go either way. He could grow into being a viable #2, or he could fade a little and be nothing more than a fantasy backup. It really depends on what Martz and head coach Lovie Smith have planned for him, and it’s still early to know what that is.

Next up, we have some viable veterans, but guys who also have issues. Roy Williams (Dal, 28), Kevin Walter (Hou, 29), Malcom Floyd (SD, 29), Santana Moss (Was, 31), and Chris Chambers (KC, 32) are in this mix. Of these five, I probably like Floyd best for his upside, but even that’s limited on a Charger team that has two other great weapons. Walter looks decent for the next couple of years in Houston, but he’s coming off a down season. Moss can still play, but he’ll fall off soon, and injuries and poor QB play are issues. Williams has been a train wreck, and it’s not inconceivable that he’s replaced as a starter in Dallas in the next 1-2 years, so he’s shaky. Chambers is really a year-to-year guy, but he’s at least back in KC, where he has a starting job solidified.

Considering the devastating knee injury suffered by Wes Welker and a great need in NE, keeping Julian Edelman around should be a wise move if at all possible

I’d be more inclined to look at the younger guys, like Julian Edelman (NE, 24), Laurent Robinson (Stl, 25), Austin Collie (Ind, 24), Mario Manningham (NYG, 24), Mike Wallace (Pit, 24), Chaz Schilens (Oak, 24), Anthony Gonzalez (Ind, 25), Jordy Nelson (GB, 25), Josh Morgan (SF, 25), and Davone Bess (Mia, 24). None of these guys are sure things, but Edelman’s play in 2009 was promising, and the Welker injury definitely helps him. Robinson’s a major injury concern, but he showed some promising game early in 2009 and has the tools to be a nice player. Collie’s a really nice option in a PPR, even if Gonzalez re-establishes himself in Indy. Wallace may not be more than a complementary player the next 1-2 years, but he has a key role, and he showed major playmaking ability as a rookie. Nelson’s progress has been slow, but he could easily still replace Driver in 1-2 years and emerge as a really nice option in this favorable situation. Morgan’s been a disappointment, but they are still pretty committed to him as a starter in SF, and he has the ability to produce like a decent #3 for the long-term if he can continue to grow and get good QB play. Bess, in a PPR, looks like a nice guy to have around, since his role as a key receiver from the slot should be secure, even after they find 1-2 new starters on the outside. I’m not sure about Manningham with the two other solid receivers here, but he certainly did prove to be quite an explosive weapon in 2009, so there has to be a place for him. As for Gonzalez, his future is a little up in the air based on what transpired in 2009, and his slotting has been adjusted accordingly. He’s a very solid player, though, and still in a good situation.

Most of your other options are younger players, and these are guys you’re just hoping pan out because none of them seems destined to come through. Brandon Tate (NE, 22) has the tools to replace Randy Moss in New England, but he has to stay healthy. Devin Thomas (Was, 23) may get another chance in Washington, but his seemingly appealing talents have not come to the surface yet. Louis Murphy (Oak, 23) is a definite talent, but he’s not even starting yet – and it’s the Raiders. Early Doucet (Ari, 24) should be a productive slot guy for the Cards, while Deon Butler (Sea, 24) and Brandon Gibson (Stl, 23) have youth, potential, and a chance to possibly play key roles for their teams.

Also in this realm are some older players who don’t have anything in terms of juicy upside potential, but do still have some value now, such as Nate Washington (Ten, 27), Nate Burleson (Det, 29), Jason Avant (Phi, 27), Devery Henderson (NO, 28), and Mark Clayton (Bal, 28). Washington and Burleson do still start, while the other players look like mediocre #4 WRs in 2010, so they’re nothing special at this point.

Once again, this deep, it makes more sense to look to the younger guys who have a chance to emerge as contributors. Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oak, 23), Brian Hartline (Mia, 23), Andre Caldwell (Cin, 25), Lance Moore (NO, 26), Ted Ginn (Mia, 25), Jacoby Jones (Hou, 26), Earl Bennett (Chi, 23), Brian Robiskie (Cle, 22), Malcolm Kelly (Was, 23), James Jones (GB, 26), and Maurice Stovall (TB, 25) are viable. I’m not enamored with any of them, quite frankly. Heyward-Bey can fly, so you have to give him a chance, but things could not have possibly looked grimmer for him than they did in his 2009 rookie season. Ginn has talent, but he should almost be written off at this point as a wideout, so he’s worth keeping just in case a light bulb goes on for him. Caldwell and Moore are pretty decent, but have limited potential, since they’re really #3s for their respective teams. (Jacoby) Jones is probably out of luck in Houston, but he is a playmaker who can score any time he touches the ball. Bennett’s going to be “just a guy” in Chicago. Robiskie didn’t get a chance to show anything this past year, which isn’t a good sign, but he could still develop into a solid PPR guy. Stovall’s had plenty of chances, which isn’t a great sign, but he should get another one this year, and if he can develop some chemistry with young QB Josh Freeman, Stovall may have a chance to be the best of this group.

Back to some older guys who have a chance, we have Justin Gage (Ten, 29), Jabar Gaffney (Den, 29), Brandon Lloyd (Den, 29), Patrick Crayton (Dal, 31), Michael Jenkins (Atl, 28), Reggie Brown (TB, 29), and Donte Stallworth (Bal, 29). None of these guys does anything for me, but Gaffney could be a decent PPR guy this year, Lloyd could play a lot more if Brandon Marshall is gone, and Jenkins does still start. Brown may now start in Tampa, for what it’s worth (probably not much).

Those looking for a sleeper keeper in a PPR league should take a look at Jag WR Mike Thomas, who quietly caught 48 passes last year and whose role should be expanding in 2010

As for the rest of the keeper options, we’re strictly looking at long-shots, so we’re focusing in on younger players like Josh Cribbs (Cle, 27), Derrick Williams (Det, 24), Harry Douglas (Atl, 26), Mike Thomas (Jac, 23), Demetrius Williams (Bal, 27), Steve Johnson (Buf, 24), Dwayne Jarrett (Car, 24), Dexter Jackson (Car, 24), Sammie Stroughter (TB, 24), Chansi Stuckey (Cle, 26), James Hardy (Buf, 24), Limas Sweed (Pit, 26), and Danny Amendola (Stl, 24). Of this group, Williams and Thomas intrigue me the most. They may just be slot guys their whole careers, but both have potential to move into a starting role on the outside eventually. Cribbs is really tough to get a handle on, and he’s obviously worth a lot more if you include his return production into the equation. Williams is talented, but he’s been a bust for the Ravens, and it’s almost time to give up on him. Johnson is someone to keep an eye on because he’s got some size and speed, unlike Hardy, who is slow and soft. Sweed’s time in Pittsburgh may be over soon, so he might not even be worth listing. Amendola’s not a sexy name, but he could be a nice little slot guy for the Rams for years to come, which is worth noting for those in PPR leagues.

Some other youngsters worth listing are Juaquin Iglesias (Chi, 23), Jerome Simpson (Cin, 24), Lavelle Hawkins (Ten, 24), Brooks Foster (Stl, 24), Kenneth Moore (Car, 25), Johnny Lee Higgins (Oak, 27), Ramses Barden (NYG, 24), Kevin Ogletree (Dal, 23), and Patrick Turner (Mia, 23). There’s not much to get excited about here, but Hawkins could be a decent slot guy for the Titans, while Foster (who missed most of 2009 with an injury) does have the talent to be a difference-maker. Barden is a huge receiver with some intrigue, but there’s a major logjam at WR on the Giant roster, so I’m not expecting much. Turner may actually get a chance to start this year, so he’s probably higher on someone else’s list. He’s low on mine because he’s painfully slow, so we’re thinking they’ll have to find someone else. The Cowboys are pretty high on Ogletree, who appears to be about where Miles Austin was here a couple of years ago. If Roy Williams is jettisoned or phased out, Ogletree could get a shot.

And finally, we have some older guys who, at best, may be worth picking up at some point in the near future for depth – but don’t count on that for anyone here between

Josh Reed (30), Bryant Johnson (29), Brandon Stokley (34), Deion Branch (31), Brandon Jones (27), Roscoe Parrish (28), Sam Aiken (29), Kelley Washington (31), Dennis Northcutt (32), Antwaan Randle El (31), and Torry Holt (34).

That said, I still have some thoughts on what’s gone down the last 5-7 days or so, and here’s a quick review. If you’re interested, we are keeping up on all the moves each day with our 2010 Free Agent Tracker.

The Chester Taylor signing by Chicago still boggles my mind a little bit. I understand you can never have too many quality veterans like Taylor, but let me put it this way: I don’t think he would have been much better than a healthy Matt Forte behind that terrible [...]]]> It’s been a fairly quiet and pretty anticlimactic free agent period so far. The one thing I’ve learned over the years about free agency is that its impact is pretty top-heavy, and overall overrated – at least when it comes to fantasy football. There are usually 3-4 major moves that have big impacts, and there are always a few moves that appear to be under-the-radar, yet wind up being key. But for the most part, the excitement some people feel in March and April dwindles down to next to nothing come September.

That said, I still have some thoughts on what’s gone down the last 5-7 days or so, and here’s a quick review. If you’re interested, we are keeping up on all the moves each day with our 2010 Free Agent Tracker.

The Chester Taylor signing by Chicago still boggles my mind a little bit. I understand you can never have too many quality veterans like Taylor, but let me put it this way: I don’t think he would have been much better than a healthy Matt Forte behind that terrible line and on a shaky overall Bear offense last year. So considering Forte is six years under than Taylor, it makes little sense to me. Solid backup/changeup RBs are a dime a dozen in this league right now, so their money could have been better spent elsewhere.

There was a thread on our MB wondering about our somewhat conservative ranking of Jamaal Charles for keeper leagues. I love the guy, and we were talking him up all off-season in 2009, but while he’s small guy who was surprisingly effective running inside late in 2009, he is still a small guy. I was waiting to see if they added a quality “bigger back” and it appears they have in Thomas Jones. That’s a pretty major monkey wrench in the 2010 Jamaal Charles plan. Jones can still play, and he’ll certainly get carries, so Charles has to slip down to the mid-to-late 20s at the RB position. He’s still unproven, as evidenced by the team’s signing of Jones.

The addition of WR Anquan Boldin is certainly good for QB Joe Flacco. I’m pretty sold on Flacco, and I think his issues last year had a lot to do with his receiving corps, not Flacco taking a step back. I’d like to see Derrick Mason back for 1-2 more years, and that’s not a lock now, and Boldin is a pretty major injury risk, but Flacco’s long-term value is on the rise. Clearly, the team (finally) understands he needs more help.

I really like Detroit’s signing of Nate Burleson. Sure, they overpaid for him, but that’s not my concern, really. The fact is Burleson is a really nice complement to Calvin Johnson. He is an injury risk, but he’s a smooth route-runner with great hands and he’s an ideal guy in terms of taking advantage of the coverage Johnson commands. Burleson should help Calvin, and he will definitely help Matthew Stafford.

The rumors of LaDainian Tomlinson to Minnesota are starting, and this is something I brought up two weeks ago. LT is a great fit, and if he goes there you can probably lock it in that Brett Favre will return. If not Favre, then a trade for Donovan McNabb. Basically, if Tomlinson signs with the Vikings, it’s a lock that he’ll be playing with either Favre or McNabb. To put it another way, I don’t think LT will be a Viking if Tarvaris Jackson is the QB.

The Bengals need to sign either Terrell Owens or Antonio Bryant because their receiving corps is horrible right now and they’re starting to really waste an elite passer in Carson Palmer (granted, Palmer’s slipped the last couple of years).

By bringing back Kevin Walter on the heels of a down season, it’s now clear the Texans don’t have much confidence in Jacoby Jones. Oh well, on to the next young prospect with upside.

I suppose bringing Chris Chambers back was a good idea for the Chiefs, but I don’t think he’s a great answer. He’s never been very precise, and watching him play late in the season I think he just made a few big plays in garbage time, not exactly in the flow of the offense.

Granted, they were lower-end moves, but can the Steelers possibly have more talent and versatility in their receiving corps now that they have Antwaan Randle-El back and also Arnaz Battle? Their depth is excellent, and they should find ways to take advantage of both in special teams. Now all they need is the serious criminal charges against their QB to stop.

Bronco WR Brandon Lloyd may be a sleeper this year if the Broncos lose Brandon Marshall, which appears to be a formality. I don’t have a lot of trust in Lloyd or QB Kyle Orton for that matter, but I’ve always felt that Lloyd was better than anyone gave him credit for.

The addition of veteran Brandon Manumaleuna and of course the arrival of Mike Martz is not good news for Greg Olson, who might be my least favorite player in the league right now after his terribly uneven 2009 season. As it stands now, I’m really hoping I can find 12 guys at his position to rank over him for 2010.

I’m okay with the Giants’ acquisition of Antrel Rolle. I know he’s been toasted at times, but they desperately needed help, and he’s a playmaker. If that front seven can return to form, he’s going to make a lot of big plays for them.

I loved the addition of Dunta Robinson for the Falcons. Yes, he’s an injury risky, but they really needed a potential #1 corner, and Robinson is just that. Those guys don’t grow on trees, so that was a very worthwhile risk.

First up, for the Bears. It’s always a risk to mortgage your future for any one player, but unless Cutler implodes off the field, this move has little downside for a franchise and fan base that has been without an elite passer since WWII. I’m big on building a team, or at least an offense, from the QB position up, and the Bears now have immediate credibility on the offense. They now have something to truly hang their hat on offensively, and they haven’t had that for a long time.

We get access to tidbits of information all the time, and one thing we heard late last year was that the Bears had come to the realization that Kyle Orton wasn’t the answer. He’s not bad, but unless you have the 2000 Raven defense on the field with him, he’s just not good enough. He’s limited as a passer, particularly his ability to hang in the pocket and deliver the ball down the field for big plays. I saw several times last year when WR Devin Hester was open deep, yet Orton couldn’t get him the ball. The Bears really had no [...]]]> Okay, here’s my spin on the big trade from yesterday.

First up, for the Bears. It’s always a risk to mortgage your future for any one player, but unless Cutler implodes off the field, this move has little downside for a franchise and fan base that has been without an elite passer since WWII. I’m big on building a team, or at least an offense, from the QB position up, and the Bears now have immediate credibility on the offense. They now have something to truly hang their hat on offensively, and they haven’t had that for a long time.

We get access to tidbits of information all the time, and one thing we heard late last year was that the Bears had come to the realization that Kyle Orton wasn’t the answer. He’s not bad, but unless you have the 2000 Raven defense on the field with him, he’s just not good enough. He’s limited as a passer, particularly his ability to hang in the pocket and deliver the ball down the field for big plays. I saw several times last year when WR Devin Hester was open deep, yet Orton couldn’t get him the ball. The Bears really had no other alternatives this off-season, so they were ready to roll with Orton for at least one more year – but they obviously pounced when Cutler became available.

The Bear OL is decent, and it got better this week when they also added veteran Orlando Pace. Pace is on his last legs and injuries have dogged him, but he does improve their line and their depth on their line. They will likely move 2008 #1 pick Chris Williams to RT, and they also added veteran Kevin Schaffer. They have at the very least replaced veteran John Tait, who is gone.

Devin Hester couldn't have asked for a better QB to help him develop his game and get the most out of his ability than Jay Cuter

The Bears have been a run-first team, but you don’t trade for Jay Cutler (who great up a Bear fan, by the way) and just hand the ball off, so they will pass it more than we’ve seen in a decade. They are still thin at receiver, but this is fantastic new for WR Devin Hester. We’ve written for well over a year how the team is VERY high on Hester the WR, and we saw that play out in 2008 with his role at that position and the lack of action he saw as a returner. Hester’s probably a year away from fully reaching his potential as a receiver, maybe even two, but I’m telling you right now that he’s really improved his route-running and he’s exhibited some serious upside. He’s obviously very dangerous after the catch, and I think he’s shown some serious potential as a deep threat. He couldn’t ask for a better QB, quite frankly. Cutler’s a gunslinger who will fire him the ball all over the field, and he can throw it 60 yards down the field while scrambling to his left, almost impossible for a right-handed QB. Forget about the cold and wind in Chicago; Cutler’s gun will slice through that.

One thing’s for sure: Cutler will not stifle Hester’s development, as Orton definitely did. Cutler will do just the opposite, as he did for Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, who was a rookie in 2008.

I understand some people are skeptical with Hester. That’s your prerogative if you are. I personally play to win, so I’m going to be high on Hester’s potential this year, even in Cutler’s first year. Keep in mind Ron Turner’s offense in Chicago is about running the ball and taking shots deep, they will do so with Hester – a lot. I’m not sure if I’ll view Hester as a very low #2 fantasy WR or a high #3, but he’s in that range. I think Hester has a chance to be special with Cutler in, so I’m going to target him. The skeptics can hold off and select only ‘proven’ commodities, but I like to be proactive and get the breakout guy on the cheap before his price goes way up.

This is also fantastic news for TE Greg Olsen, another guy I like a lot. Olsen runs like a WR, and he’s one of the best downfield threats at the TE position. Given how thin the Bear receiving corps is, you can bet Olsen will be a huge part of their passing game, along with Desmond Clark. Olsen to me is a viable starter at this point, no question. I can see 800-900 yards and 6-7 TDs.

If I were the Bears, I would bring Brandon Lloyd back in 2009. He was actually pretty darn good before getting hurt, and he’ll come cheaply. They also need to invest a draft pick in a bigger receiver, and they may be interested in Torry Holt. I’d also be looking into Drew Bennett right now if I were Chicago. He has the size they need, the experience, and he fits in pretty well in Chicago.

As for Matt Forte, I have absolutely no problem with his fantasy value, even if he won’t carry the ball quite as much. He wore down a little last year, anyway, and he’s a very good receiver out of the backfield, very smooth. They will still run him 15+ times per game, and he’ll get 5-6 ball thrown to him a game, at least. Given the threat Cutler brings to the table, and his ability to move the ball consistently, Forte’s value gets a boost, even if it’s a small boost.

In Denver, the outlook offensively isn’t quite as rosy. They do at least get a serviceable player in Orton. I actually don’t think Orton starting for Denver is a tragedy for Marshall. Orton can excel throwing in the intermediate area, and that’s where the physical Marshall tends to make his money. Orton is pretty accurate on shorter passes, and there is a sustaining element to Orton’s game, so Marshall’s catch and yardage totals should be okay. I have to look at all the other players at WR closely to determine if Marshall is still a legit #1 fantasy WR, though. Most likely, he is only in a PPR league. I’m not as encouraged with Eddie Royal. Royal can do well in the intermediate area, but he’s their deep threat (if they have one), and I don’t see him connecting on many deeper balls with Orton, so Royal’s potential takes a hit. He’s probably more of a fill-in starter at this point, and #3-#4 fantasy wideout. Keep in mind they have some other guys who excel in the intermediate area, like Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney. Orton will take full advantage of his TEs, too, but the problem is, I see Daniel Graham being more of a factor now, since he’s a more complete TE. He won’t be anything special because he’s too valuable a blocker, but he could limit Tony Scheffler’s potential. Scheffler is a playmaker, though, and they need all the help they can get with Orton under center.

Orton should be okay for this year in Denver – provided he plays like he did before his ankle injury in 2008. Before that injury, he was actually razor sharp, and very effective. Afterward, not so much. He’s not an ideal franchise QB, so the Broncos will be targeting QB Mark Sanchez in the draft, for sure. Sanchez played in a pro style offense at USC, and even though he started only one year, that’s one more year than Matt Cassel did at USC. Sanchez would likely sit the bench for a season, and be given a chance to start for Denver in 2010. If he is a Bronco, that should help his fantasy value, since the system would be very QB-friendly and a good fit for him.

One final point: the Broncos has better run the ball and fully utilize all their backs this year with Orton in. I look for Correll Buckhalter to get the first crack, and I think J.J. Arrington will be an intriguing weapon, similar to Kevin Faulk in New England.

When we’re talking about the best of the best at WR, we’re talking about guys like

Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Calvin Johnson. These guys are young, in mostly good situations, and are clearly elite, if not dominant. I’d view keeping him as a top priority, and I’d only keep a handful of RBs over them.

Chief WR Dwayne Bowe may not be a freak talent, but he is on the cusp of being considered elite and could be the next "stud" at the position, especially with his QB position upgraded this off-season.

There’s nothing wrong with the next tier of top receivers, and I also view them a studs: Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, Braylon Edwards, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens. These guys aren’t all perfect, like Edward for example, but they are either [...]]]> It’s time to take a look at the WRs for keeper leagues. This position is tough because there’s always a huge drop-off after the true studs, and players can quickly go from being very productive to fantasy afterthoughts. That said I would place a premium on the studs at the position, especially the best of the best.

When we’re talking about the best of the best at WR, we’re talking about guys like

Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne, and Calvin Johnson. These guys are young, in mostly good situations, and are clearly elite, if not dominant. I’d view keeping him as a top priority, and I’d only keep a handful of RBs over them.

Chief WR Dwayne Bowe may not be a freak talent, but he is on the cusp of being considered elite and could be the next "stud" at the position, especially with his QB position upgraded this off-season.

There’s nothing wrong with the next tier of top receivers, and I also view them a studs: Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, Braylon Edwards, Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Randy Moss, and Terrell Owens. These guys aren’t all perfect, like Edward for example, but they are either young and in good situations (Jennings, White, Colston, Marshall) or are proven all-time greats who should produce at least 1-2 more years (Smith, Moss, and Owens). Bowe should be in this group, even though he’s not clearly a must-have. He’s young, could be stud-like, and his situation looks promising.

After these guys you’re already dealing with some guys who would be shaky keepers in leagues that keep only 2-3 players, but in larger leagues, they are the next best things. Again, these guys are far from perfect, which makes the players mentioned above look more desirable, but these guys are viable: Roy Williams, Wes Welker, Santonio Holmes, Lee Evans, Anthony Gonzalez, Plaxico Burress, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bernard Berrian, Chad Johnson, Eddie Royal, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Bryant. How you rank these guy depends on your team needs, expectations, and also your scoring system. Welker, for example, is money in a PPR league, and a must-have. Holmes, Evans, Gonzalez, Royal, and Jackson are young, so they look like strong long-term options. Williams is the #1 now in Dallas, so you have to be encouraged, even though he’s erratic and a little shaky. Burress’ status is up in the air, of course, while guys like TJH, Berrian, and Johnson aren’t standing out now as must-haves, but should be worth hanging on to if possible.

The deeper we go down the list, the more your expectations and league setup needs to be considered. For example, if you’re content playing for the here and now, then players like Hines Ward, Santana Moss, Laveranues Coles, Torry Holt, Derrick Mason, and Donald Driver are okay choices. All of them should start in 2009 (we’ll see about Holt, though), and they can still produce. Kevin Curtis and Chris Chambers are in this realm as well, but they are a little younger than the other guys in this group. Coles and Mason look like good PPR options, and Driver’s still playing well, and I like his situation.

If you’re looking to go on the younger side, then players like Kevin Walter, Jerricho Cotchery, and Mark Clayton stand out a little as more youthful options who have value now and the potential to be relevant for 3+ years. I like Walter a lot, and I think Clayton will be more than fine with Joe Flacco and his big arm on his side. Cotchery’s no spring chicken, but he’s under 30 and should be active as his team’s only viable starter.

Bear wideout Devin Hester needs better play from his QB but his improvement is very noticeable, and the team views him as a cornerstone of their receiving corps.

If you’re more inclined to place an even higher priority on youth, then Donnie Avery, Devin Hester, and DeSean Jackson look attractive. Avery’s a playmaker who is clearly his team’s #1, and I like Hester’s development and think he could be a strong #2 fantasy wideout for years to come, provided his team’s QB play is acceptable. Jackson’s never going to be a stud, and his attitude could get in his way at some point (he’s very cocky), but he’ll be a large part of what they do in Philly, and they throw the ball in Philly more than anything else.

We’re already about 40 deep at the position, and at this point I would likely focus on youth and upside potential, and there are a lot of guys in this group who fit the part. If you’re looking to go young for the future, then look at Steve Breaston, Jordy Nelson, Devin Thomas, and Josh Morgan. Breaston would need Boldin to depart, however. I LOVE Nelson and think he’ll be very good, but not until 2010 most likely. I don’t think Morgan is truly special because he’s not a burner and his hands are shaky, but he’s definitely someone who could develop into a nice #2 fantasy wideout, as a key part of their passing game. Thomas is very intriguing. Of all the receivers drafted in 2008, he best projects as a “#1 NFL WR,” so he’s someone to consider getting now. He hasn’t shown enough to assume he’ll bust out in 2009, but by 2010 he could be ready and he has the size and speed to excel.  I view Thomas kind of like I view RB Rashard Mendenhall. If you’re willing to be patient, you could have a stud on your hands in 1-2 years.

To back up a moment, Lance Moore and Ted Ginn are young and should play a lot, so they are also viable. But we’ll see if Moore is re-signed by the Saints, and I haven’t seen enough from Ginn. He’s very talented, so worth a shot, but he might not be better than a slot receiver, and they have a pretty good one in Miami in Davone Bess.

Guys like Robert Meachem, Sidney Rice, and Domenik Hixon are also young, but they have some issues. Meachem has all the talent, but he’s been too slow off the mark, and that the team re-signed the speedy Devery Henderson may not bode well for him in ’09. If they don’t re-sign Moore, then I’d feel better. But if Moore and Henderson are in their long-term plans, that’s not good for Meachem. Rice I do likely, but he’s ultimately only a #2 NFL receiver, and I’m not sure he’s good enough to be a good one. Maybe if he played opposite a beast-like #1, but he doesn’t. Still, this deep, he’s someone to look at because as of right now he’s the #2 in Minnesota, and he should be much healthier than he was in ’08. As for Hixon, I do like him and think he’s viable, but his hands were suspect this past year, and his future role and potential is a little up in the air due to that and the situation with Burress.

Next up, there are some younger guys who have a shot to help you, but I’m not exactly enamored with any of them. Players like Nate Washington, Mark Bradley, Greg Camarillo, and Justin Gage are right now starters, so they are viable in larger leagues. I do like Camarillo a lot in a PPR league, but I’m not sure he’ll be relevant in a few years. But in a PPR league, he’s worthy of a little more love than I’m giving him here.

There are some older players this deep who have some value, but not much upside, and their roles are a little up in the air for even the next 1-2 years. Nate Burleson

Marvin Harrison, Deion Branch, Patrick Crayton, Javon Walker, Bryant Johnson, Michael Jenkins, Jerry Porter, Joey Galloway, and Bobby Engram lead the list.

If you're looking for a sleeper keeper at the WR position, look no further than Mike Walker, who is probably the team's best overall wideout right now.

But this deep, I’d rather target the younger guys with the upside potential, and there are a few of them: Mike Walker, Demetrius Williams, Brandon Jones, Davone Bess, Limas Sweed, Malcolm Kelly, Miles Austin, Marcus Smith, Malcom Floyd, and Jerome Simpson stand out. Walker could be the #1 in Jacksonville this year, actually, and while he’s not a burner, he looks solid in every other area. Willliams could still (finally) come through and emerge as a deadly downfield threat for QB Joe Flacco. Bess is a viable guy in a PPR league. Jones is a pretty good player, and now he’s a start in SF. Sweed is a work in progress, but he could still be the eventual replacement for Ward in Pittsburgh. Kelly’s a physical possession receiver who should eventually be the #2 in Washington. Austin may start in Dallas alongside Roy Williams. Smith is a dark horse starter in Baltimore, kind of an Anquan Boldin type, and Floyd is a big man who can run, so he may move on to a new team soon and start. Simpson’s been a big disappointment, but he could still replace Chad Johnson in Cincy.

We’re about 70 deep now at the position, so you obviously can’t expect much from the rest of the players listed below. But if you’re looking for depth or legit prospect in a larger keeper or dynasty league, there are some guys. It’s just when digging this deep to know which players at least have a chance to help you.

Andre Caldwell, for example may start in Cincy soon, and in fact he’s ahead of Simpson right now (although not as talented). Keenan Burton could be a factor in S. Louis, where they are hurting at the position. Chaz Schilens is someone the Raiders like, and Will Franklin could eventually be the #2 in KC. Johnny Lee Higgins is raw, but he did make some big play for the Raiders last year and is worthy this deep. Steve Johnson is a bigger receiver who saw the field for the Bills last year. And at some point, guys like Dexter Jackson (TB), Jacoby Jones (Hou), Mario Manningham (NYG), and Roy Hall (Ind) could see the field a lot for their teams. I’m not a big James Hardy fan, and T.O. in Buffalo hurts him, but he’s in the mix, as is Jason Hill, who could see more time in SF if Morgan and/or Jones disappoint for the Niners. He’s been a bust so far, but I did actually see Dwayne Jarret make a few plays for the Panthers last year, so he’s not totally a lost cause.

Otherwise, we’re looking at a ton of veteran guys who really don’t excite me, but they at least are worthy of being mentioned. Matt Jones, D.J. Hackett, Chris Henry, Reggie Williams, Reggie Brown, Devery Henderson, Michael Clayton, and Brandon Lloyd fit the bill. Jones’ career is up on the air, but he could find another home if he wants it, while Hackett does have the talent to be a solid #2, but his career has taken a turn for the worse. I actually kind of like Clayton to surprise a little the next 1-2 years, but he’s done nothing the last 2-3 years to cause any faith.

Some other options who are a little older than the guys listed above, and can’t be counted on for much more than the next 1-2 years, are Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer, Drew Bennett, Brandon Stokley, Antwaan Randle El, Jabar Gaffney, Andre Davis, Josh Reed, Justin McCareins, and Bobby Wade. Most of these guys do have roles, if not starting jobs, but they don’t conjure up much excitement.

If you really need to dig deep, it's time to look at role players at the position, and we like Atlanta's Harry Douglas to make noise as a dynamic slot receiver.

There are some other younger players, but they’re either major reaches, or will have only a complementary role these next few years, so they don’t have too much value. But I do like Steve Smith, Harry Douglas, Chansi Stuckey, Early Doucet, and Earl Bennett as productive slot guys. Doucet would need Boldin to leave and Breaston to move to the #3 slot, but Doucet is a good fit as a slot guy. And while they are major reaches, Maurice Stovall, Lavelle Hawkins, and Adrian Arrington may still factor into their team’s plans.

Well, that’s over 100 players listed, and that’s enough for now. As the weeks and months go by I will tweak this list and add players who are looking more viable than they do now.