What’s interesting about this position is how watered down it is. Because so many backfield are utilizing two (even three) players in a rotation, the number of clear studs is low. And while there are more players these days than usual who do have some value now due to a fairly large role, they’re still in situations that prevent major fantasy production. We’ve also seen fewer legitimate developmental prospects at the position and a lot of players who are kind of in limbo, with little long-term potential and even questionable short-term potential.

I’ll start off this section with the (surprisingly few) players who are clearly slam-dunks for those in keeper leagues: Adrian Peterson (Min, 25), Steven Jackson (Stl, 27), Chris Johnson (Ten, 24), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac, 25), and Ray Rice (Bal, 23).

It's probably a little early to proclaim Ray Rice as a legit fantasy stud for the long-term, but the guy was incredibly impressive in 2009 - and he's very young

These five players are clearly the cream of the crop, and with youth on their side. Rice may not be a legit top-5 overall RB over the next few years, as the [...]]]> Note: Ages are accurate as of midseason 2010.

What’s interesting about this position is how watered down it is. Because so many backfield are utilizing two (even three) players in a rotation, the number of clear studs is low. And while there are more players these days than usual who do have some value now due to a fairly large role, they’re still in situations that prevent major fantasy production. We’ve also seen fewer legitimate developmental prospects at the position and a lot of players who are kind of in limbo, with little long-term potential and even questionable short-term potential.

I’ll start off this section with the (surprisingly few) players who are clearly slam-dunks for those in keeper leagues: Adrian Peterson (Min, 25), Steven Jackson (Stl, 27), Chris Johnson (Ten, 24), Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac, 25), and Ray Rice (Bal, 23).

It's probably a little early to proclaim Ray Rice as a legit fantasy stud for the long-term, but the guy was incredibly impressive in 2009 - and he's very young

These five players are clearly the cream of the crop, and with youth on their side. Rice may not be a legit top-5 overall RB over the next few years, as the team should always look to work a bigger back into the mix. But he was so impressive in 2009 that he simply has to be in this elite realm, especially since he’s so young and versatile. Jackson’s window may be starting to close, but there have been zero signs of slowdown yet, and he should have a couple of peak seasons left in him. Their QB situation is worrisome, but the OL has been built up quite nicely.

The talent and fantasy potential and reliability does drop off a little after this group, but there are certainly still some really attractive options, such as Rashard Mendenhall (Pit, 23), DeAngelo Williams (Car, 27), Michael Turner (Atl, 28), Frank Gore (SF, 27), and Jonathan Stewart (Car, 23). Mendenhall does need to prove he can maintain a high level of play for another season, but if the Steelers get the best out of him, his potential on this good team is actually mind-blowing because he’s very talented. Williams will be a free agent in 2011, but if we’re in the same situation as we are next year with the CBA, he’ll be restricted again and won’t likely go anywhere. He has the obvious problem of playing with Stewart, but Williams is so damn good. He proved to be the real deal in 2009 coming off a dream 2008 season. I think he’s fantastic. Turner’s a guy who could fall off in a couple of years, but keep in mind his workload so far for a 28-year old has been minimal, so he probably still has a good amount of peak time ahead of him. Gore’s starting to build up a lot of touches in his career, and while injuries are a concern, he is still in his prime and should be fine if healthy the next two years at least. Stewart’s in the same boat as Williams. He’s unbelievably good, but in a timeshare. At least for those looking way down the road, that timeshare should extend both player’s careers. I brought that up while interviewing both Williams and Stewart on the radio last year – and they wholeheartedly agreed that the timeshare will extend their careers. Stewart is clearly a stud, and I’ll take my chances on a young stud in a keeper league, even with a timeshare situation.

Based purely on talent and youth, you could argue that Beanie Wells deserves to be considered a top-5 fantasy back for the long-term

While the players mentioned above appear to be the cream of the crop, there are certainly some other very appealing young backs still, such as Shonn Greene (NYJ, 25), Chris Wells (Ari, 22), Jamaal Charles (KC, 23), Knowshon Moreno (Den, 23), and LeSean McCoy (Phi, 22). They’re all very young and in very good situations, so while they aren’t certain slam-dunks, they’re desirable. Greene’s going to be the main ball-carrier on what should be a good team for years to come, but there are others here who will take touches away, at least for the short term (LaDainian Tomlinson and Leon Washington, of course). Wells on talent alone could be considered a top-5 keeper, but he has durability issues and his poor blocking should mean a steady role for Tim Hightower. But Wells has big upside. Speaking of upside, Charles has a ton of it, as evidenced by his ballistic run at the end of 2009. He’s certainly a very nice keeper, but I would just keep expectations realistic in case his lack of size prevents the team from truly committing to him like the Titans have committed to Chris Johnson. The signing of solid veteran Thomas Jones is a sign the team will be somewhat judicious with how they use Charles. Still, he’s a fine keeper given the juice he offers. Moreno’s a little bit of a tough call. He was solid at times last year and he’s a high pick who will get every chance to play a lot, but he also showed some limitations (and that he’s not special) and I’m concerned with injuries considering all the contact he takes. It’s also questionable where this team is going with their best wideout likely heading out of town and the QB situation not exactly good. Moreno needs to improve, bottom line, because he wasn’t good enough to stave off Correll Buckhalter last year, which is a bad sign. Buckhalter looks very much in the mix again this year, and head coach Josh McDaniels looks like a guy who has no qualms using a committee approach. But Moreno is far from a stiff, and he has youth on his side. McCoy certainly showed nice potential in his rookie year, and he should be even better in 2010. It’s great for him how they parted ways with Brian Westbrook, but he’s another guy who’s not exactly a lock to do well the next 2-3 years. At times last year, he didn’t look as quick and decisive as he did in college, so we’ll have to see if that was just his being hesitant and a little unsure of himself. But his role’s obviously expanding big time, even with veteran Mike Bell added.

There’s no question the talent and keeper potential drops a level after the aforementioned players. There are plenty of options, but they all have some sort of issue that appears prohibitive. You have players like Cedric Benson (Cin, 27), Ryan Grant (GB, 27), and Ronnie Brown (Mia, 28), at least, and they are relatively young and have large roles on their teams, so they are solid. You have players who have the talent to produce, but could be limited by a lack of touches, due to the presence of other players on their teams. Examples would be Matt Forte (Chi, 24), Fred Jackson (Buf, 29), Joseph Addai (Ind, 27), Marion Barber (Dal, 27), and Pierre Thomas (NO, 25). Each situation is different, so I’d look hard at these players’ ages, supporting casts, and offensive systems. Forte and Thomas do have youth working in their favor, while Addai and Barber are in good situations. Jackson’s very good, but he’s probably at best a high-end #3, unless the team fully commits to him, which is yet to be determined.

Those looking to be proactive and aggressive should consider Felix Jones one of the best keeper prospects in the league because he has the potential to put up huge numbers if all goes well over the next 3-4 years

Next up, I like the group of young options who have active roles and should have them for years to come, like Felix Jones (Dal, 23), Steve Slaton (Hou, 24), Ahmad Bradshaw, (NYG, 24), Reggie Bush (NO, 25), and Darren McFadden (Oak, 23). Jones is clearly the best of the bunch, and he could even be considered a borderline stud in 7-8 months if he fully takes charge of this backfield. I’ve said for a while now that I think he could potentially be a “lead” back, and if he is and he stays healthy, look out. He actually has more upside than a guy like Jamaal Charles because he’s a bigger and better pure runner. Bradshaw’s a player, so he’s not a bad option at all as a 3^rd back. Bush at least we know will always have a role, and while he’s frustrating, he does make plays. Slaton’s a bit of a wildcard, but at the worst, he should be a guy who gets 35-40% of his team’s touches – unless the Texans hit a homerun in the draft and nabs a productive power guy. As for McFadden, I’m not a fan, but he is very young. At some point, someone has to take advantage of his North-South running ability and solid receiving potential.

A player who doesn’t really have a group is Donald Brown (Ind, 23). He should be, at worst, an active complementary player – but he could be much more than that. He could be the guy in 1-2 years, so he’s very much worth hanging on to. He’s pretty thin and needs to show he can stay healthy, but he’s a very good runner and receiver, and he’s in a great situation.

There are some players next up who I don’t think will be major factors in 1-2 years, but who do have value for right now and could certainly prove me wrong and be top-30 backs over the next two years. Brandon Jacobs (NYG, 28), Jerome Harrison (Cle, 27), Cadillac Williams (TB, 28), and Ricky Williams (Mia, 33) are in this group. Although it’s hardly a lock he’s the lead guy for the next few years, Harrison probably also has the best to chance to surprise over the next few years, while Williams’ value could be nil this time next year, as he might retire. Jacobs and Willliams will have key roles heading into 2010, but they could quickly lose a ton of fantasy value due to injuries, wear and tear, etc. Thomas Jones (NYJ, 32) can be placed in this group as well.

He's probably never going to be a true lead guy, but Justin Forsett was very impressive last year and clearly has a lot to offer, so he's worth a shot

Getting back to the younger guys, we do still have some out there, but none are guaranteed expansive roles, and they could really go either way in the coming years. I do like Justin Forsett (Sea, 24) a lot, so he tops this group, but there’s no real indication the team views him as a major player in their backfield for the long-term, or that they really should (although he showed a lot in 2009). But at the very least, he should be a really nice complementary player. Kevin Smith (Det, 23) is coming off a serious knee injury and shoulder problems, but his biggest issue is his lack of dynamism. That could lead the team to look for an upgrade in the draft soon. Laurence Maroney (NE, 25) continues to fumble away his chances and clearly prevent the team from fully committing to him, and Tim Hightower (Ari, 24), while very solid, will always split time with Wells in Arizona. I’d put Michael Bush (Oak, 26) in this area as well. He may finally get a chance in Oakland now that Justin Fargas is gone. He hasn’t done enough to feel great about him, but on the other hand he’s definitely showed flashes. If he takes control over the “lead” role here, he could be a solid #3 fantasy back/flex starter for the next couple of years.

There’s another group of players who are all pretty young, but whose futures are really up in the air. LenDale White (Ten, 25), Leon Washington (NYJ, 28), Chester Taylor (Min, 30), Marshawn Lynch (Buf, 24), Jason Snelling (Atl, 26), Arian Foster (Hou, 24), Darren Sproles (SD, 27), and Jerious Norwood (Atl, 27) fall in here. Taylor’s going to have some value the next 2-3 years in Chicago, as will Washington wherever he is if healthy, so they are nice back-up types for a larger keeper league. Sproles and Norwood do have some upside, but they’re never going to command a lot of touches. White and Lynch are young and have a chance to resurrect their careers, but they might also continue to do nothing and their 2009 seasons don’t instill much confidence. Foster’s probably not going to be in this group after the draft, as the Texans are a good bet to draft a bigger back because at the end of the day, Foster’s “just a guy.”

Sticking with the younger players, at this point, you can’t truly count on the remaining options – but they’re probably worth stashing away due to their youth and, in many cases, their potential. Tashard Choice (Dal, 25) and James Davis (Cle, 24) are good example, and I really like Choice as a versatile football player. Eventually, he should get his chance. Davis could still be the guy in Cleveland. And while I know for a fact the team doesn’t really view him as a true lead back, Bernard Scott (Cin, 26) is very talented, so worth a shot. If you really want to dig deep and look at younger players, the guys to look at are Andre Brown (NYG, 23), Aaron Brown (Det, 24), Javon Ringer (Ten, 23), Rashad Jennings (Jac, 25), and Mike Goodson (Car, 23). Brown has a chance to replace Brandon Jacobs as their power back some day, the Lions like (Aaron) Brown and he has speed, Ringer’s a nice little back who could replace LenDale White as the #2 soon, Jennings has a chance to be an effective 1^st and 2^nd down back at some point, and Goodson is pretty darn dynamic and could eventually get an opportunity to play.

We’ve yet to cover some bigger names in the business, but that’s likely because their chances of helping you beyond 2010 are in serious question – and they’re hardly locks to contribute this coming year. Players like: Clinton Portis (Was, 29), Willis McGahee (Bal, 28), Julius Jones (Sea, 29), LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ, 31), Derrick Ward (TB, 30), Larry Johnson (Was, 30), Maurice Morris (Det, 30), and Willie Parker (FA, 29) are in this mix. It’s really hard to make a strong case for any of these options in a keeper league, but McGahee is still relatively young without a ton of wear and tear and in a good situation. Ward doesn’t have a lot of wear and tear and could conceivably carry the load for a decent spell (he’s set to split time with Cadillac Williams in ’10). Portis should split time with Larry Johnson in Washington this year, which is a killer because he’s nearing the end and probably has one good year left in him, if that. Jones is probably done in Seattle, and they should draft a back early in April. I’ll also throw Correll Buckhalter (Den, 31) and Earnest Graham (TB, 30) in here. Buckhalter at least looks like he has a role in Denver for another year at least, but Graham’s career appears to be in the toilet right now (through no fault of his own). But that guy’s pretty darn solid and it’s not inconceivable that he gets another chance somewhere, so he might be worth stashing away in a larger keeper or dynasty league.

There really aren't many legit development prospects at the RB position out there right now, but Lex Hilliard could be someone to watch after a pretty impressive showing late in 2009

And this basically brings us to the bottom of the barrel at this position. I will start off by listing some younger players who have caught my eye and appear to at least have a chance, such as Chris Jennings (Cle, 24), Brandon Jackson (GB, 25), Lex Hilliard (Mia, 26), D.J. Ware (NYG, 25), Glen Coffee (SF, 23), and Mike Bell (Phi, 27). Bell’s a little older, but he has a role as a short yardage guy and can score TDs. I really liked what I saw from Hilliard, and he could be the #2 with Ronnie Brown in Miami soon. Jennings did look good in limited time in Cleveland, but there’s a logjam there, and he’s ultimately just a guy. I’m not that impressed with Coffee, but he could be a stop-gap guy for 1-2 years for the 49ers and at the least for now has value in case Frank Gore gets hurt. D.J. (formerly Danny) Ware is an intriguing prospect as well with his good power and receiving ability, but you could argue that he’s 4^th in their pecking order at RB right now.

We’re left with very little at this point, so it’s best to look at players who either have youth or clearly defined roles for 2010. Options like Quinton Ganther (Sea, 26), Mewelde Moore (Pit, 28), Le’Ron McClain (Bal, 25), Kevin Faulk (NE, 34), Peyton Hillis (Cle, 24), Leonard Weaver (Phi, 27), Lynell Hamilton (NO, 25), LaRod Stephens-Howling (Ari, 23) and J.J. Arrington (Den, 27) at least have a chance. Moore has a chance to get consistent touches behind Mendenhall in Pittsburgh, but at this point he needs an injury to a starter to have a chance. Hillis could carve a niche in Cleveland was possibly a goal line back and 3^rd down option. Faulk, Weaver, and Hamilton should have defined roles, at least.

I can’t say the same for Ryan Moats (Hou, 27), Sammy Morris (NE, 33), Ladell Betts (Was, 31), Justin Fargas (FA, 30), Fred Taylor (NE, 34), and Brian Westbrook (FA, 31). Betts is coming off a serious knee injury and could be done, while Morris and Taylor are well over 30 and in a committee. Fargas has some health issues, too. Moats is a decent prospect, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.

And finally, some more players who are at least young and at least deserve a mention: Brian Leonard (26), Kolby Smith (25), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (25), Gartrell Johnson (24), and Marcus Mason (26).

We start with the good teams because to LT it’s all about the ring.

That’s why I think he’d be willing to accept a complementary role on a good team, and what better player to work behind than Adrian Peterson? That’s right, I think LT in Minnesota would be great for both parties (that is, assuming the Vikes lose Chester Taylor).

If the Vikings lose Chester Taylor, grabbing LT for the 2010 season would make a lot of sense for them.

If the Vikings do lose Taylor, they’ll need a #2 back. They’ll need a guy who can excel in short yardage (check), catch the ball well (check), pass protect (check) and carry the load for a few games if Peterson gets hurt (check). It would be great if that guy didn’t fumble (check). Especially if Brett Favre returns, why wouldn’t LT want to play for the Vikings? He’s all about the ring, and one could argue that if the Vikes had just dropped the ball 5 times and [...]]]> We knew that was coming, so now the question is, where will LaDainian Tomlinson end up? We know he wants to keep playing, so he’ll be in the league. So where do we start?

We start with the good teams because to LT it’s all about the ring.

That’s why I think he’d be willing to accept a complementary role on a good team, and what better player to work behind than Adrian Peterson? That’s right, I think LT in Minnesota would be great for both parties (that is, assuming the Vikes lose Chester Taylor).

If the Vikings lose Chester Taylor, grabbing LT for the 2010 season would make a lot of sense for them.

If the Vikings do lose Taylor, they’ll need a #2 back. They’ll need a guy who can excel in short yardage (check), catch the ball well (check), pass protect (check) and carry the load for a few games if Peterson gets hurt (check). It would be great if that guy didn’t fumble (check). Especially if Brett Favre returns, why wouldn’t LT want to play for the Vikings? He’s all about the ring, and one could argue that if the Vikes had just dropped the ball 5 times and not 6 in the NFC Title game, they’d be the world champs.

Here are some other viable fits:

Philadelphia – I can see him here, but not really if Brian Westbrook is back, which he appears to be. We all know what Philly does on offense, so LT even if he was asked to carry the load for a stretch, wouldn’t be relied on much as a runner.

Green Bay – Backup Brandon Jackson has been a disappointment, and this is a really good team. With 1-2 additions on defense and some improvement on the OL, you could argue that the Packers should be one of the four favorites to win it all in 2010.

New England – LT hasn’t been a big fan of this organization, but those types of animosities tend to dissipate when you’re wearing the uniform. If Fred Taylor’s gone, they could certainly utilize Tomlinson in their committee.

Pittsburgh – If the Steelers lose Willie Parker, they’d still have a solid 3^rd down back in Mewelde Moore, but grabbing LT at a low price would be hard for them to pass up, especially since Rashard Mendenhall isn’t exactly a pillar of perfection at his position.

Tennessee – If the team opts to let LenDale White go, this could make some sense. For a good 6-week stretch, the Titans were as dangerous a team as there was in the league, and they have one of the best OLs in the business. The team does need to pull back a little from their usage or Chris Johnson.

There’s no question Tomlinson’s game is falling off fast. In addition to having injury issues, he’s lost a lot of his explosiveness. The first thing that went was the long runs, and that was a couple of years ago. Now that short-area burst (that specifically made him great) is gone and his balance also appears to be nearly shot. It’s a shame he can’t transform into more grinder, a power guy, but that’s not really his game.  But there were flashes last year when he looked like the old LT, and he was still pretty effective near the goal.

It’ll be questionable if LT’s worth having on a fantasy team this year, but I definitely think he can help one of these good teams, even push them over the top.

So here’s what I got at this early stage.

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN – Has to be top dog this year given youth and talent but more action in the passing game would be nice.

2. Michael Turner, ATL – Carried the load all season with great effectiveness in run-heavy offense and was money near the goal so a no-brainer.

3. Maurice Drew, JAC – Major jump in receptions key for 3rd straight strong season and now he truly carries the load plus Holt will help their shaky team.

4. Matt Forte, CHI – Addition of Cutler should help them move the ball and create more opportunities for the slick and productive runner and receiver.

5. LaDainian [...]]]> As the draft quickly approaches, we’re trying to bang out as much of the magazine writeups as we possibly can, and I’ve just completed about the top-50 RBs. Of course, the draft will change a lot of things, so it’s hard to rank any player for certain. We have also not yet plugged in projections, which can change things once you see the raw numbers. But I do have some rankings and comments on the top-50 guys now, and I’m pretty comfortable with this list, knowing it’s very early.

So here’s what I got at this early stage.

1. Adrian Peterson, MIN – Has to be top dog this year given youth and talent but more action in the passing game would be nice.

2. Michael Turner, ATL – Carried the load all season with great effectiveness in run-heavy offense and was money near the goal so a no-brainer.

3. Maurice Drew, JAC – Major jump in receptions key for 3rd straight strong season and now he truly carries the load plus Holt will help their shaky team.

4. Matt Forte, CHI – Addition of Cutler should help them move the ball and create more opportunities for the slick and productive runner and receiver.

5. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD – Concerns about age are legit but offense is too strong to ignore and as bad as he was playing with a bad toe he was still 7th in PPG.

6. Steven Jackson, STL – He’s a horse and they are building offense around him but weak supporting cast won’t do him any favors and creates downside.

7. Chris Johnson, TEN – A special player who commands a healthy number of touches and seriously challenges defenses so the production will continue in run-based offense.

8. Brandon Jacobs, NYG – Injuries always a concern but he was okay last year and his 19 goal line carries were a great sign and no reason to believe he won’t continue to rack of TDs so a very solid starter.

9. Joseph Addai, IND – Colt line and overall offense should be better off plus depth behind him is poor so he will likely bounce back with plenty of touches.

10. Brian Westbrook, PHI – Still very dangerous and Eagle OL beefed up, which helps but should split time more this year and durability is always a major issue.

11. Clinton Portis, WAS – Age and wear and tear are big concerns but he always finds a way to produce and always gets the rock a ton.

12. DeAngelo Williams, CAR – Insanely productive and dynamic last year but numbers are bound to go with the stud-like Stewart commanding a healthy number of touches.

13. Marion Barber, DAL – Too many other qualities backs here but Barber’s role as their bruiser and goal line back is secure so 10+ TDs will be in order.

14. Frank Gore, SF – An elite talent but the production hasn’t been there on a bad team but a terrific #2 back in an offense that will be centered around him and the running game.

15. Reggie Bush, NO – His limitations are clear but was very productive in 2007 when he played and if healthy should be ready to take full advantage of his skills and favorable situation.

16. Steve Slaton, HOU – Texans won’t over-expose him but he’s too versatile and dangerous to keep off the field so a nice #2 back in potentially a potent offense.

17. Ryan Grant, GB – Not a special talent and lack of action in the passing game but good overall offense and he can be the workhorse, so a nice #2.

18. Thomas Jones, NYJ – His OL is solid and he will get the rock a ton, but he’s beyond 30 and with no Favre he’s bound to fall well short of last year’s production.

19. Ronnie Brown, MIA – Should be in better shape two years removed from knee injury and total yardage and TDs should slot him in the top-15 if he can stay healthy despite timeshare.

20. Pierre Thomas, NO – Not a stud and Bush will take away catches but a quality player in a good situation as long as they don’t add another bigger back.

21. Willis McGahee, BAL – Last year was a train wreck but expected to move back into more of a lead role and a good situation under Cameron on a good team.

22. Marshawn Lynch, BUF – Suspended three games for now and RBs Rhodes and Jackson are quality players, but the offense is bound to improve

23. Jonathan Stewart, CAR – Not someone you can count on as a starter but a high-end talent in a good spot so a good bet to finish in the top-25 this year.

24. Darren McFadden, OAK – Still shaky as a runner and an RBBC situation but he will get plenty of touches as runner and receiver and will have upside compared to the others in this range.

25. LenDale White, TEN – No reason to think he won’t be fed the rock near the goal, so the TDs should be there again but very limited otherwise.

26. Derrick Ward, TB – Brought in as a free agent and he’s bigger and more talented than anyone else here so he should get a healthy number of touches and a pretty decent situation.

27. Kevin Smith, DET – Finds a way to produce despite poor situation and team should be better but Mo Morris hurts his value and Smith lacks special qualities so best a #3 fantasy RB.

28. Larry Johnson, KC – Future up in the air but has to go up the list if he’s here still as he averaged 4.5 YPC in 2008 and this could be a solid situation even as he’s not a great fit for their offense.

29. Jamal Lewis, CLE – His 2008 season was closer to his normal production so don’t expect much from an aging back on a bad team but he will carry the load for sure.

30. Cedric Benson, CIN – Nothing special at all but if he carries the load as expected should be serviceable as Palmer is a major upgrade over last year’s QB.

31. Julius Jones, SEA – Production will be sporadic but worth having around for depth as he’ll likely carry the load with Morris gone.

32. Willie Parker, PIT – Production has decreased four years running and Mendenhall and Moore will limit production but he should still be top back.

33. Tim Hightower, ARI – Value a little up in the air with James status but should be considered a good bet to get at least half the carries and most of the goal line carries.

34. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT – Probably a year away from exploding and Parker should still start but he could be a Parker injury away from exploding.

35. Correll Buckhalter, DEN – Total numbers over his last three seasons are impressive so definitely has a chance to excel and stand out above the rest.

36. Earnest Graham, TB – A solid player but the addition of Ward destroys his value yet he will play and would be a nice starter if Ward got hurt.

37. Darren Sproles, SD – He averaged a TD every 15 touches last year so if he gets 10 touches a game he should be worth starting as a flex.

38. Felix Jones, DAL – Impressive yards per carry (8.9) and a TD every 10.7 touches last year so with more touches this year will come more production.

39. Fred Taylor, NE – Won’t carry the load and may not get the goal line carries so despite the good situation won’t likely do anything special.

40. Jamaal Charles, KC – Should at worst be their top receiver out of the backfield and possibly much more as he’s a good fit for a spread attack.

41. Ricky Williams, MIA – Brown trade rumors do bode well for him as he will at worst get 35-40% of the touches.

42. Leon Washington, NYJ – Coming off his best season he’s a threat o get a TD anytime and his role in the passing game is increasing so a nice depth option.

43. Sammy Morris, NE – Addition of Taylor does hurt a lot but he might still be their top goal line back since Taylor’s not a great one.

44. Chester Taylor, MIN – Keeps plugging along and does well with his touches but really need a Peterson injury to have serious value.

45. Fred Jackson, BUF – Nice player and Lynch suspended for three games but addition of Rhodes throws a monkey wrench into his fantasy plan this year.

46. Jerious Norwood, ATL – Had 5.1 yards per carry and a TD every 22 touches last year so he’s a viable flex starter.

47. Le’Ron McClain, BAL – A fine fall back plan again if McGahee falls off again otherwise won’t likely get nearly as many touches at FB this year.

48. Maurice Morris, DET – Quality player and the new regime did bring him in but he won’t likely get many goal line carries.

49. J.J. Arrington, DEN – Should have a role similar to Kevin Faulk’s for McDaniels and has some upside as a depth option for fantasy.

50. Justin Fargas. OAK – He still managed to rack up 853 yards on 219 carries and he’s back so will continue to get carries.

Next up, it’s the RBs.

At first glance, while there is good depth, I notice a little bit of a void when it comes to true studs at the position. So if you’re in a keeper league that retains only 3-4 players, I advise your approach your keepers much like you should have been approaching a standard redraft league the last two years: don’t take a RB just because he’s a RB and take the best players, period. Keep in mind, of course, the pool of attractive options will increase after the draft.

That said about the lack of quality at the top, I’m personally ranking some young guys who I do think are for real very high, even though they’ve really only “done it” for one year.

Let’s take a look at the top guys.

There aren’t many RBs who are clearly their team’s workhorse, so if you have one on your team, and he’s a young stud, then [...]]]> It’s been a few weeks since I broke out my QB Keeper Overviews here, and it’s already time to update them. But before I do that I’m going to try to bang out the other key positions within the next week and catch completely up.

Next up, it’s the RBs.

At first glance, while there is good depth, I notice a little bit of a void when it comes to true studs at the position. So if you’re in a keeper league that retains only 3-4 players, I advise your approach your keepers much like you should have been approaching a standard redraft league the last two years: don’t take a RB just because he’s a RB and take the best players, period. Keep in mind, of course, the pool of attractive options will increase after the draft.

That said about the lack of quality at the top, I’m personally ranking some young guys who I do think are for real very high, even though they’ve really only “done it” for one year.

Let’s take a look at the top guys.

There aren’t many RBs who are clearly their team’s workhorse, so if you have one on your team, and he’s a young stud, then you keep him no matter what. Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Michael Turner, and definitely Maurice Jones-Drew fall into this category. I am worried about Jackson’s situation, but he is a horse, no doubt.

Despite a less-than-stellar situation, Maurice Jones-Drew is clearly one of the best keeper prospects in the league at the RB position.

Then I’d roll with those two young guys who have already proved to me that they are legit, and they are Chris Johnson and Matt Forte. Be happy if you have one of these guys in a keeper league. You can’t be much younger, and you can’t expect a rookie back to show more then these two did in 2008. Next up, we have some players who aren’t perfect in every way, but are still very young, talented, in a good situation, or all of the above. They are: Marion Barber, Joseph Addai, Frank Gore, and Ronnie Brown. Barber’s going to be solid the next 3-5 years by default given his nose for the goal. Addai isn’t a pure stud, but you have to love the situation, while Gore is still an elite talent and young enough, so he deserves the love, despite his injury issues and shaky situation. Brown’s still young, too, and his potential next 2-3 years seems high, now fully healthy. I think the Dolphins needs to focus more on their running game in 2009, and maybe they will with Brown having another full season to return to previous form (although he looked fine to me last year and actually told me in November he was, in fact, 100%).

Things already get a little tricky after these guys, and you next have some quality players who have a lot of wear and tear on them, so they can’t be trusted for more than 1-2 more years. However, things change so quickly in the NFL, so there’s a lot to be said for even one more productive season. So while Clinton Portis, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Brian Westbrook may fade away sooner rather than later, they are worth holding on after the aforementioned younger studs. All three will be integral parts of their offense this year, and they could easily be productive for another couple of seasons. Of the three, Westbrook would be the biggest concern in terms of quickly breaking down.

If you’re looking to go for the gusto and play to win, Steeler RB Rashard Mendenhall would be a great choice.

Youth is a key factor for keeper leagues, of course, not only for the future, but also for the here and now. After all, a young back with fresh legs is always desirable right now. So the next group of players are mostly young, yet they have active roles right now, so they are desirable. DeAngelo Williams, Reggie Bush, Steve Slaton, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Grant, Marshawn Lynch, and Jonathan Stewart. Some of these guys are more desirable than others, like Williams, Slaton, and Stewart, who are good choices for long-term upside. But they might not be as productive this year as Jacobs, Grant, or Lynch. Who you keep from this group has to do with your risk tolerance and expectations, as it typically does in keeper leagues.

My next group of players is also a mixture of (somewhat) safe options for the next 1-2 years and upside choices for the future. If I really wanted to play to win, for example, I’d find a way to retain a guy like Rashard Mendenhall, Felix Jones, Darren McFadden, or even Darren Sproles. I’m not a big McFadden fan, but I do think he’ll get a lot of touches, perhaps similar to how Bush does in New Orleans, and he does have the potential to make explosive plays and put up good yardage numbers as a runner and receiver. I love Mendenhall’s potential, and I think he could be THE sleeper at the position if we’re talking the next 2-3 years or more. Jones and Sproles will likely always share time, especially Sproles, but I love the juice they bring to the equation.

Willis McGahee, Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson, LenDale White, and Derrick Ward should have value the next 1-2 years at least, so for now they look worthy. While Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas, and Tim Hightower may not have big upside or a ton of value right now, all have a good chance to be their team’s lead back, so they are also very worthy.

Next up, some players you probably can’t rely on much longer than for 2009, but they are still worth consideration, especially in larger keeper or dynasty leagues. I’m talking about Willie Parker, Earnest Graham, Jamal Lewis, Cedric Benson, Julius Jones, Correll Buckhalter, Chester Taylor, and Fred Taylor.

Next I’d be looking at players who have the ability and potential in their current situations to surprise with more playing time/production than expected, like Fred Jackson, Jamaal Charles, Ryan Torain, and Tashard Choice. Or I’d settle for a younger player who is solid and should have value in a complementary role, like

Although you'll have to be patient with him, it can sometimes pay in a keeper league to acquire a guy who can flat out play, even if he's on the bench, and Choice can play

Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington, Ray Rice, or Le’Ron McClain.

We’re already about 50 deep here at RB, and it’s certainly hit-or-miss from here in terms of keeper league prospects. If I’m looking for some younger guys from here with some legit potential, then I’d like a guys like Michael Bush, Kolby Smith,

Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Hillis, J.J. Arrington, Brandon Jackson, and Jerome Harrison. None are sure things, but a guy like Smith could actually be a “starter” relatively soon, and guys like Bradshaw, Arrington, and Harrison should have active roles as peripheral weapons. If I’m looking more for the short-term, then there are some viable options for the next 1-2 years, such as Maurice Morris, Sammy Morris, Ricky Williams, Edgerrin James, Justin Fargas, and LaMont Jordan. Laurence Maroney is still worth a shot this late, and Kevin Faulk is always worth something in PPR leagues.

If you’re going deeper than this, you’re probably in a dynasty league and you’re looking for some players who have potential to grow into a more prominent role, and players like Danny Ware, Chauncey Washington, James Johnson, and Xavier Omon are decent options. Ware could be just a Brandon Jacobs injury away from starting for the Giants, while Johnson is a kid the Bengals like and kept on their practice quad this past year; he could factor into their mix soon. Washington could be the bigger back they use with MJD in Jacksonville, while Omon is a player the Bill do like.

Of course, there are still some veterans and some other younger guys who needs to be at least mentioned. Some of these guys are lost causes, but Chris Perry and

Selvin Young are still pretty young, and Dominic Rhodes and Mewelde Moore are still productive but their roles are unclear.

There’s little hope for the rest of the RBs in the league, quite frankly, but if you’re still looking to add a prospect or two you should again look for the younger guys, such as Antonio Pittman, Mike Hart, Jason Wright, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brian Leonard, Garrett Wolfe, DeShawn Wynn, Chris Henry, Clifton Smith, and Justin Forsett.

I really don’t feel good listing any other young guys, but there will be a few guys who emerge as at least viable for fantasy teams that can keep 5-6 RBs, and I will list them here in subsequent updates of this article.

Otherwise, the bottom of the barrel veteran-wise would be guys like Kevin Jones

Deuce McAllister, DeShaun Foster, Chris Brown, Kenny Watson, Tatum Bell, T.J. Duckett, Michael Pittman, Rudi Johnson, and Travis Henry. Some of these guys aren’t even in the league officially, so you know we’re digging deep.

Next up, the WRs. I’ll post that Friday.

First of all, let me say if Brett Favre winds up signing with the Vikings this year it will be a bad idea. I don’t think the guy can play anymore, quite frankly. He had a shoulder/arm injury last year, but who’s to say his arm will ever again be up to par? It certainly wasn’t last year. Favre looked old in 2008, and severely limited. The Jet offense was grounded, and pretty bad with Favre under center.

I had an argument on the radio last summer with a host about Favre, the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers. The host’s contention was that the Packers were crazy to walk away from Favre, whereas I said it was a good idea. Sure, the Packers didn’t make the playoffs, but I didn’t have the luxury of having that information at hand then. My main point was that, if the Packers kept Favre one more year they were banking more so on 2008, whereas if they committed to Rodgers in 2008 they were banking on the next 3-5 years at least. I’d rather have 3-5 cracks at a title than just one more. Besides, Rodgers was and is better than Favre, anyway. [...]]]>

First of all, let me say if Brett Favre winds up signing with the Vikings this year it will be a bad idea. I don’t think the guy can play anymore, quite frankly. He had a shoulder/arm injury last year, but who’s to say his arm will ever again be up to par? It certainly wasn’t last year. Favre looked old in 2008, and severely limited. The Jet offense was grounded, and pretty bad with Favre under center.

I had an argument on the radio last summer with a host about Favre, the Packers, and Aaron Rodgers. The host’s contention was that the Packers were crazy to walk away from Favre, whereas I said it was a good idea. Sure, the Packers didn’t make the playoffs, but I didn’t have the luxury of having that information at hand then. My main point was that, if the Packers kept Favre one more year they were banking more so on 2008, whereas if they committed to Rodgers in 2008 they were banking on the next 3-5 years at least. I’d rather have 3-5 cracks at a title than just one more. Besides, Rodgers was and is better than Favre, anyway. And Green Bay rid themselves of someone who has quickly become one of the more annoying and distracting athletes we’ve seen in quite some time.

I think the same thing applies to the Vikings this year. We know Favre wanted to go there last year, and now it appears as if a move to Minnesota is very doable – as long as both parties want it. That was hardly the case last spring and summer. But while Favre would give the Vikings a better chance to win and go deep into the playoffs than they have now, Minnesota is much better off with a younger player they can build their offense around along with their franchise back.

They supposedly have interest in Patriot Matt Cassel, which makes sense. He’s young, and he showed some game and potential last year. But I’m still not sold on Cassel as a legit quality starter in this league just yet. He threw out of the shotgun a lot last year, so some of his success as a passer can be misleading. Cassel played very well, but he’s not a great thrower. He’s not a player who should definitely be viewed as a team’s “guy” for the future.

And given his high profile situation last year, he’s also going to cost a lot, which is probably the biggest concern of all. I think a much more affordable alternative would be Derek Anderson, who I believe the Vikes should be able to pry from the Browns at a reasonable cost.

Derek Anderson could be the answer to the Vikings' QB woes.

I know Anderson was poor last year, but everything around him crumbled, so it wasn’t all his fault. You don’t account for 32 TDs in a single season with 29 passing, as Anderson did in 2007, if you don’t have some serious skills. I can think of only one QB the last 20 years who put up that kind of numbers and turned out to be a bum, and that’s Scott Mitchell. Anderson’s far from perfect, but his fit in Minnesota could be great. For one, he absolutely has to be in an offense in which the running game is the foundation, and that’s certainly the case in Minnesota with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. They won’t have to ask Anderson to do too much, which is a key because if he has to his erratic issues come to the surface. On the other hand, if the running game behind him is rolling, as it was in 2007 with a lesser player in Jamal Lewis, he can be a very effective passer. This is also a deep passing game in Minnesota, and Anderson has a gun. He may not have much touch on his passes, but he has a great deep arm, and the Vikes have a very good deep threat in Bernard Berrian. Finally, I like Anderson on a team with a good defense. With a good defense, the Vikes are rarely playing from way behind, so they can manage a QB like Anderson much easier. Anderson stands tall in the pocket and is not afraid to stare down the gun barrell, and I dig that about him.

I’m not going to blame the Vikes if they make a hard run at Cassel, but I think Anderson would be a better fit based on his skills and also his price tag. The Vikings absolutely have to get a new QB in 2009, so it had better be one of these two. If it’s Sage Rosenfels or Jeff Garcia, they’re not going to be good enough to get to the next level, and it will be yet another season of frustration for the Vikes.