The NFL and fantasy landscapes change quickly these days, so if you have a draft strategy, it had better be year-specific. I have already done several mock and real drafts for various publications, and the 2013 trends are pretty clear – so they dominate the following 10 draft tips.
Try to hold off a little before drafting a QB – To summarize the best 2013 draft approach in a word, it’s “patience,” and that specifically applies to the QB position. Just 2-3 years ago, I was all about getting as many impact players as possible, regardless of position, and QB was a big part of that approach. After the passing game bonanza that we saw in 2011, you’d think that I’d be all over the signal-callers as rock-solid early picks. I do still believe in the BPA approach (best player available), and the top QBs are almost always safe and extremely productive options. But in 2013, it doesn’t make nearly as much sense taking a QB early as it did even just one year ago. There are many paths to a championship, and there’s nothing wrong with using a No.1 pick on Aaron Rodgers, or a 2nd-round snag of Drew Brees. [...]
I am participating in my first fantasy draft of the year tonight for MyFantasyLeague.com, so I am starting to think about my overall draft strategy for this year.
My first inclination, as I’ve conveyed a bit in this blog already this year, is that 2011 is not a year to mess around with for obvious reasons (the lockout). I’m not going to try to be a hero, and I’m going to play things a little conservatively. At least I’m going to try to. It might be tough because I’m a play-to-win guy, but I think it would behoove fantasy players to focus on as many stable options as possible, at least in the first 4-6 rounds of a draft. That means eliminating as much risk as possible.
And that’s why I think Michael Vick should not be drafted as the #1 QB in 2011. In fact, I don’t think he should be the second or even the third fantasy QB drafted. At some point, likely any time in the 2nd round, he is too flashy and exciting to pass up on, but pass on him I might because I think it’s more important to avoid downside this year than it is to [...]
In case you missed it, we put up our initial projections on Friday. It’s really early in the game and there’s a ton of uncertainty, but I thought it would make for an interesting post to submit some of the rankings that I’m most intrigued by and offer some reasoning behind them.
I’m sure anyone looking at these projections has some questions or comments, and if you do on any of these players listed below feel free to chime in and I’ll do my best to address them.
Aaron Rodgers at #1 – I think it’s the right thing to do because of his running ability. That’s an element for fantasy he really has over the other elite players at the position. 115 rushes and 9 rushing TDs over the last two years is nothing to sneeze at. And I feel a heck of a lot better about the OL, which was the only concern for Rodgers in 2009. He did get in a funk last year, but after seeing him work himself out of it, he’s now officially elite in my eyes.
Kevin Kolb at #10 – It was a very tough call between and Jay Cutler for that 9th spot. [...]
In case you missed it, as first reported yesterday by our guy Adam Caplan for Scout.com, the Eagles yesterday extended QB Kevin Kolb through the 2011 season.
Let me say for the record right now that we’re very high on Kolb’s fantasy value in 2010. Being from the Philly area, we’re at an advantage in that we’re very knowledgable when it comes to the team. And not only that, Mr. Caplan regularly attends Eagle practices. Our own Joe Dolan worked for the Eagles in their media department in 2008 as an on-air talent and reporter, so he’s all over the Eagles as well. I am, of course, very familiar with the team, since it’s the local team in my area. But we’re not “fans” or “homers” as we’re sometimes accused of. In fact, the Eagles weren’t even “my team” growing up, and they still aren’t. Truth be told, I’ve always kind of disliked them, mainly due to the obnoxious segment of their fan base (it’s not everyone, but I’ve spent time in the old 700 level at Vet, and it was pretty scary/comical up there). But over the last decade, I have come to respect how they do business, and how [...]
Note: Ages are accurate as of midseason 2010.
I’m a little behind breaking these out, but I did want to wait until the bulk of the free agent action took place. I’ll be busting my ass to offer similar overviews for RB, WR, and TE in the next 4-5 days. My goal’s to have them all up by next Wednesday, so we can move on to the NFL Draft and our pre-draft rookie stuff.
Here’s my take on the QB landscape for those in keeper leagues:
Given his youth, supporting cast, and what he's shown so far Packer QB Aaron Rodgers is about as appealing as it gets at the QB position for those in keeper leagues
The QB position in the NFL isn’t exactly bursting with young talent, so if you have a stud like Drew Brees (31), Peyton Manning (34), Aaron Rodgers (26), or Philip Rivers (28), then you’re doing really well at this position in your keeper or dynasty league. If you’re in a dynasty league or don’t have any restrictions in terms of the number of years you can keep a player, Rodgers (who will be 27 in December) and Rivers (who will be 29 in December) may [...]