I made this decision, based on a suggestion from a reader, who said the blog “isn’t for me.” I don’t agree with that assessment, but what I’ve learned is that the blog isn’t for my busy time. The blog was never meant to be a running Q & A with me having to constantly come back to answer questions. I’m perfectly fine doing that in the offseason, when I actually have time. But I don’t have the time from August-December. The comments were open for other readers to chime and share their thoughts on the topic at hand, even to disagree and offer their own spin for others to think about. But again, this time of the year, it turns into 30-40 people asking me questions on each post, and I can’t keep going back to answer them 5-6 times a day while taking my time away from 99% of our other customers who are content to [...]]]> With the 2011 preseason well underway and the regular season obviously right behind it, I have made a decision to move away from the blog for the rest of the year.

I made this decision, based on a suggestion from a reader, who said the blog “isn’t for me.” I don’t agree with that assessment, but what I’ve learned is that the blog isn’t for my busy time. The blog was never meant to be a running Q & A with me having to constantly come back to answer questions. I’m perfectly fine doing that in the offseason, when I actually have time. But I don’t have the time from August-December. The comments were open for other readers to chime and share their thoughts on the topic at hand, even to disagree and offer their own spin for others to think about. But again, this time of the year, it turns into 30-40 people asking me questions on each post, and I can’t keep going back to answer them 5-6 times a day while taking my time away from 99% of our other customers who are content to simply read and absorb our content. Being a glorified chat session isn’t really what my definition of a blog is, so then I look like a jerk for not answering questions. I do a weekly chat, and I will continue to do a weekly chat the entire year if people have questions for me. In fact, we will do three chats a week this year, just for those who have questions for us. I’m also going to do one more podcast a week during the season than I did in 2010, most likely the weekly review podcast.

The post that got me thinking about this was an ongoing conversation about the delay in my updated Draft Plan, which was posted on the site Saturday afternoon 8/13. I really wanted to get it done before the first kickoff, but I didn’t make it. I did get it up before about a third of the league played a single preseason game, at least.

Obviously, here comes the lockout excuse. But I don’t think people realize how much work it was to basically re-write about 35-40% of the whole site while covering free agency, which usually goes down in 3-4 months. We usually have those 3-4 months to cover it all, make adjustments, and write probably 300,000 words on the upcoming season while also tweaking projections, following news, etc. This year we had about two weeks to do all that. I think we did a good job, but the full draft plan article takes me about 25-30 hours of work, and I didn’t have that for a couple of weeks right when the lockout ended. And I couldn’t really do it before the lockout ended (I actually did, but it was a condensed version).

If a customer doesn’t appreciate some of my business practices, I understand. If he or she doesn’t want to give their business anymore, that’s certainly their prerogative. But I think it’s clear that we’re all busting our asses to maintain a high quality service. These articles we post take a long time to write, and they’re usually very long. We don’t just make stuff up, either. Things have to be researched, and talked through, which also takes a lot of time. It’s been particularly tough given the lockout. There’s a reason people are pissed off if something’s not posted early enough: it’s good stuff, and good stuff takes time to produce, and time has been at a shortage this year.

So anyway, just because I’m not doing the blog doesn’t mean I’m not working. You may notice this year I’m going to put my name on some more things. These are things I’ve always written, but just never put my name on. It seems some people think I’m slacking or something. I assure you, I’m not slacking. The staff is 500% larger than it was 5 years ago, and I’m working more hours now than I did then. I’m not complaining; I’m just pointing out that I’m not slacking. I keep hearing “More Hansen” from people. If I did much more there would be “No Hansen” because Hansen would be dead.

I’m still alive, and I plan to be alive all year and do whatever I can to help you win a championship. But to do that, I need some help myself, and it’s going to help me knowing I don’t have to worry about looking like an A-Hole for not answering all the questions left for me on every blog post.

I wrote in February that this lockout would be difficult for us to get through, but that we would get through it, and we’d be ready to go once it was finally over, and that is the case. We’ve been cranking out a lot of content the last few months/weeks, and we’re currently sitting on extensive player profiles on 300+ offensive players.

But we are navigating through uncharted waters, so we’re going to need a little time before we’re ready to roll out key items such as those player profiles. We’re going to sit back and wait to see how free agency – which will kick off on Friday at 6pm goes – and since we think things will happen fast and furiously and have a major impact on the fantasy landscape, we’re going to let that play out before posting our in-depth profiles and some other key items. Of course, we’re standing by ready to break free agency [...]]]> As you know by now, the longest labor impasse in the history of the NFL is over. Although we were concerned at various stages of the dispute, we were confident that the full 16-game season would be saved, and that’s now the case.

I wrote in February that this lockout would be difficult for us to get through, but that we would get through it, and we’d be ready to go once it was finally over, and that is the case. We’ve been cranking out a lot of content the last few months/weeks, and we’re currently sitting on extensive player profiles on 300+ offensive players.

But we are navigating through uncharted waters, so we’re going to need a little time before we’re ready to roll out key items such as those player profiles. We’re going to sit back and wait to see how free agency – which will kick off on Friday at 6pm goes – and since we think things will happen fast and furiously and have a major impact on the fantasy landscape, we’re going to let that play out before posting our in-depth profiles and some other key items. Of course, we’re standing by ready to break free agency down as it happens, which will take some time on its own.

The challenge we face is due to the fact that we have SO much content on the site or in the can that will need to be updated, so I just wanted to give you a heads-up and let you know that we’re going to move as quickly as we can to follow all the free agency activity and adjust accordingly. My hope is that we’ll return to normalcy around August 5^th and will return to our usual preseason practice of following all the action and updating our various articles and features. We do ask for your patience, however, as it will take a while to fill in the blanks once free agency runs its course, and things may not be “normal” for another 2-3 weeks.

This off-season has also been a difficult one in terms of development, but we still do have some nice enhancements and additions this year. Some of those are:

• The Guru Challenge – We should roll out the revamped prize structure this week. This year, all Season Pass players will be placed in leagues of 40 teams and will compete against the 39 other owners for season league prizes. In addition, players will also compete simultaneously for weekly prizes for putting together the best starting lineup each week. Check the site later this week for more details and where you can get in on the action this year.
• Draft Analyzer software – It will be back in 2011 with our projections, likely this week.
• MyGuru App – We’re working on a new App that will essentially be a mobile version of your MyGuru. This is something that will be a lot more useful for the regular season, given the functionality of Myguru. We’re going to have to do more testing in the coming weeks, but this item will be offered FREE for all 2011 subscribers.
• Player Comparison Tool – We’re wrapping up a new tool that will allow users to compare players in a variety of categories and view charts to put the comparison into perspective.
• Mock Drafts – We will be rolling out a little mock draft engine that utilizes the software of our friends at myfantasyleague.com.
• Weekly Player Projections – We’ve developed this new tool this year, so each Tuesday morning during the season, you can see projections for the upcoming week that are arrived simply being crunching the numbers. For more on this tool, check here.
• Beefed up IDP coverage – We’re excited to beef up our IDP coverage this year, thanks to the addition of a new contributor, Mike “IDP” Monk. Mike’s truly an IDP guru and has operated a popular IDP blog that focused on the IDP WW and his talents will be fully utilized this year.

We’ll certainly have other enhancements this year, and you can always get most of your questions answered about our offerings by clicking on the “Site Help” link on the upper right of each of our pages (that will be updated for 2011 this week). Otherwise, if you’re wondering about what’s going on, make sure you check out the site, our blogs, and our Twitter and Facebook account for updates on our progress, chats, podcasts, blog posts, new articles, and more.

This next month is going to be an absolute nightmare for us to handle, but we’re not complaining. We’re excited and ready to get to work. Most important, we’re more committed than ever to offering the best service and product we possibly can.

Have a great season, and we’ll see you in the playoffs.

#1 – Will DeAngelo Williams stay or go?

Of course this is a huge story because there will be ripple effects. My money’s on Williams being an UFA and signing with Denver. That would have a huge affect on Jonathan Stewart’s value, and also Knowshon Moreno. We’re told the Denver coaches don’t think Moreno is the guy, and John Fox will make the running game the foundation of the offense, with preferably two RBs sharing the workload. Williams is the perfect option for Fox, who obviously knows him well. If this happens, Moreno should be viewed as a flex starter at best, and Stewart would be a rock solid #2.

#2 – Will the Cardinals get a real QB?

It’s a huge question because WR Larry Fitzgerald’s 2011 season [...]]]> It looks like this lockout is going to end no later than the end of the month, so it is time to hit the books and prepare for the mayhem that will be ensuing. The following are the top-25 stories I’ll be following once the lockout is lifted. These only cover the skill positions and offensive production, which just goes to show how much uncertainty overall there is in the league right now.

#1 – Will DeAngelo Williams stay or go?

Of course this is a huge story because there will be ripple effects. My money’s on Williams being an UFA and signing with Denver. That would have a huge affect on Jonathan Stewart’s value, and also Knowshon Moreno. We’re told the Denver coaches don’t think Moreno is the guy, and John Fox will make the running game the foundation of the offense, with preferably two RBs sharing the workload. Williams is the perfect option for Fox, who obviously knows him well. If this happens, Moreno should be viewed as a flex starter at best, and Stewart would be a rock solid #2.

#2 – Will the Cardinals get a real QB?

It’s a huge question because WR Larry Fitzgerald’s 2011 season hangs in the balance. Clearly, the Cardinals are going to upgrade the position this summer, probably immediately after they’re actually able to. You’ve heard the Kevin Kolb rumors, and they are totally legit. The only way it doesn’t happen is if Seattle blows Philly away with an offer. The Seahawks have been enamored with Kolb for some time. Although the lockout and lack of offseason will be really tough on the new QB, having a capable player under center will help their running game, and it looks like the Cards will finally truly commit to the run, which in turn will help the QB. If the team acquires Kolb, rookie Rob Housler will be a great sleeper for the long-term. Kolb seems very comfortable throwing to the TE.

#3 – Will the Colts keep Joseph Addai around?

This is a very key story for obvious reasons. If Addai is an UFA, there’s a chance the team lets him go. That would be risky, but the Colts have set up a contingency plan by drafting Delone Carter, who is a different type of runner than they’re used to. He’s more of a physical interior runner, which could represent a shift in their offense. That shift may have been necessitated by what we saw transpire in 2010, when the QB threw it way too often. I’d guess Addai will be back, but that’s very far from a foregone conclusion.

#4 – Will Cedric Benson return to the Bengals?

I can actually answer this one. Yes, yes he will. If not, they are absolutely screwed because it’s highly unlikely they will find a suitable replacement, someone who can handle a heavy workload and take pressure off their rookie QB. I like backup Bernard Scott, but every single person we’ve talked to close to the team, including their play-by-play announcer Brad Johansen just this week, does not believe Scott can handle a larger workload. Benson will represent their best chance to actually have an NFL offense this year.

#5 – Will the Giants retain Ahmad Bradshaw?

We'd be shocked if the Giants let Ahmad Bradshaw go, but they do have several other FA concerns

Never say never in sports, but I’d be floored if Big Blue didn’t retain Bradshaw’s services. There really aren’t many teams out there whose need at the position would merit his soon-to-be large salary, so I fully expect him back in New York. They really found a great formula with him and Brandon Jacobs last year, and that should be on display again this year. Then again, he does still have to actually sign on the dotted line again with the G-Men.

#6 – Will the Titans acquire a veteran QB?

This is big as it relates to Chris Johnson. For Johnson’s sake, they have to find a way to acquire someone serviceable, like Matt Hasselbeck. But even if they do, there will be a continuity issue, especially with a new coaching staff and offense. Still, Hasselbeck or a Marc Bulger would be a huge upgrade over rookie Jake Locker, who simply isn’t ready to play. If Locker looks like he’s going to get on the field in September that would be very bad for Johnson.

#7 – Will Sidney Rice return to the Vikings?

This is absolutely paramount for the Viking offense, and of course Adrian Peterson. If the Vikings plan on starting rookie Christian Ponder for most of their games – or even if they bring in a decent veteran like Marc Bulger – they absolutely have to have a legit #1, and a sizable one at that, which Rice is. Otherwise, it’s going to be insanely hard for Peterson this year running behind a weak OL. He’ll tough it out and average over 4.0 yards a carry, but he should be over 5.0. If Rice is lured away by another team, that’s very problematic for the offense, and it would do no favors for wideout Percy Harvin, who needs to continue to be a movable chess piece and not a #1 guy on the outside.

#8 – Will James Jones be a Packer?

The answer is “probably not,” and if he isn’t that’s huge news for Jordy Nelson, who would very much be worth drafting as a #4 WR. It’s very possible that he essentially takes over as the “No. 2” wideout here, given Don Driver’s advancing age. And wherever Jones goes, he presumably lands as a starter. He could easily star for Carolina or Jacksonville, for example.

#9 – How will the Jet WRs corps look?

The Redskins are reportedly interested in Santonio Holmes, but Holmes is a major priority for the Jets, and he’ll likely return. The guy to focus on is Braylon Edwards, who was quite solid last year and actually consistent. If Edwards gets a significant offer elsewhere, he’s gone. If not, he could be back. If Edwards is gone, that would be a blow to the Jet passing game, but it would be good news for TE Dustin Keller, and they could replace him with a veteran like Plaxico Burress or Randy Moss.

#10 – Will Carolina trade Steve Smith?

I’ve been disappointed with some of Smith’s antics the last few years, and while I clearly understand his frustrations, he could have been a little more professional with how he’s handled the ugliness. That said, I still love him as a player and firmly believe he still has a lot left in the tank (15 yards a catch in 2009). So I’m very interested to see how his situation in 2011 plays out. If he lands in a good situation like in San Diego, the depth at the WR position as far as I’m concerned improves noticeably, since I think Smith can still put up top-20 numbers, even on a new team.

#11 – Will Reggie Bush be a Saint?

If the Saints let Reggie Bush go, things will really be looking up for Pierre Thomas

Those I talk to continue to believe that Bush won’t be back, and that would be huge news for Pierre Thomas. With Bush gone and Mark Ingram added to this backfield, Thomas can settle into an active complementary role as a guy who gets 6-7 carries a game and a lot of action as a receiver out of the backfield. If that formula results in Thomas actually staying healthy, he’ll be a terrific flex starter. And of course, wherever Bush goes the fantasy depth chart there will be affected.

#12 – Will the Ravens keep RB Willis McGahee?

This is a big story. If the Ravens let McGahee walk, they may opt to give Ray Rice the bulk of the goal-line carries, and Rice may be able to handle that role well. I spoke this week with the Stan White, who is the Ravens’ Radio color analyst, and he was pretty strong with his opinion that Rice can be a good goal-line back. He isn’t MJD, but he’s quite sturdy and physical for a little guy. That would be a huge development, and it might actually prompt us to shockingly move Rice up to #3 in our RB rankings (we’ve already moved him up this past week). That may sound crazy, but where’s the downside for Rice in a good offense if he’s the lead back, the goal line back, and the 3^rd-down back?

#13 – Can the Falcons keep their OL intact?

The Falcon offense still works off the run game and Michael Turner, and with the team hoping to make a run deeper into the playoffs, the offensive line will play a key role. G Justin Blalock, T Tyson Clabo, and G Harvey Dahl are all free agents, and it’s unlikely they’ll all be back. Clabo in particular will command a lot of money, as he’s coming off a Pro Bowl season, and he and Dahl have started the last three seasons. Of the free agents, Blalock appears most likely to return, and it seems that the best hope is to re-sign two of them, with Clabo probably heading elsewhere. The Falcons allowed just 23 sacks last season – 3rd fewest in the league – and offensive line consistency has helped the team’s stability over the last few years.

#14 – Who’s quarterbacking the Seahawks?

Ideally for fantasy, we want it to be Matt Hasselbeck, who had a nice mojo going with WR Michael Williams. Williams doesn’t have a large margin of error because he’s pretty slow and not very sudden, but if he has a quality guy tossing him the rock, he can put up very nice numbers as a volume receiver. All bets are off for him and the whole offense if Hasselbeck is gone, though.

#15 – How will the Charger WR corps shape up?

This is a big story on so many fronts. For one, we have to first see if Vincent Jackson is going to be back for sure (I think so) and relatively happy (that I don’t know). We also have to see if they will let Malcom Floyd leave, which they likely will, along with Leg Naanee. And of course, there’s that dream scenario in which they acquire Panther Steve Smith. That might be too good to be true, but it’s nice to dream. Obviously, they can sign someone off the street and produce with him, so seeing how this WRs corps gets settled is a big story.

#16 – Will the Bears acquire another WR?

I still don’t think a big receiver like Plaxico Burress makes sense for them, since that’s not what this offense is all about. Then again, it did morph into more off a possession passing attack in 2010, due to their poor OL. The best free agent fit here is Santana Moss, and if he goes that’s going to change the Redskin depth chart and obviously affect Johnny Knox and Earl Bennett.

#17 – Will Miami bring in another RB?

They likely will, so the real question is, will this player contend for the lead job? Rookie Daniel Thomas’ fantasy value depends on the type of runner they bring in. If it’s a Darren Sproles type, Thomas is good to go. If it’s DeAngelo Williams, Thomas is hosed.

#18 – Is rookie Andy Dalton the guy for Cincy?

It’s looking like the team is going to give him the chance to open the season atop the depth chart. As rookies go, he’s NFL-ready, but very few rookie are actually “NFL ready,” so this is going to be a tough situation. Tied into this question, of course, is the status of Carson Palmer. Based on the people close to the team we’ve talked to, you can probably drop Palmer from your keeper team now.

#19 – Will the Cowboys release Marion Barber?

While there have been some whispers that Barber will take a pay cut to stay with the club, it’s still almost a foregone conclusion that Barber and his salary of roughly $5 million are gone. That was clear when they drafted DeMarco Murray in the 3^rd round of April’s draft. Barber’s going to find a home – the Broncos could be a possibly if they don’t sign Williams – and affect that team’s depth chart, plus with him out the mix the “starting” job in Dallas will likely be cleared for Felix Jones and Murray to battle for. I think Tashard Choice absolutely should be in the conversation, but the team does not appear to view him as a potential lead guy.

#20 – Who’s under center for the Redskins Week One?

It’s certainly going to be interesting to see how this situation unfolds. And while expectations will likely be low no matter who’s starting, this is obviously one of only 32 teams in the NFL, so it’s a key story. At the very least, for their running game and for TE Chris Cooley it is.

#21 – Will the Pats pick up a veteran wideout?

If the Pats sign someone like #85, that would obviously hurt Deion Branch's value

I continue to hear the name Chad Ochocinco when it comes to the Pats potentially adding a veteran wideout. I understand the interest in one, as youngster Brandon Tate is not ready for prime time, but part of me is hoping they don’t bring in #85 because that would be a monkey wrench when it comes to a guy like Deion Branch. Branch is far from a stud but is worth strong consideration because he’s a clear starter on the outside with Tom Brady, who he clicks well with.

#22 – Will the Raiders sign a veteran WR?

They could use certainly use one, but this point is almost completely tied to second-year guy Jacoby Ford. I love what Ford showed last year, but you always have to handle Raider receivers with kid gloves. You can’t expect the world, but at least with Ford you can hope for it because he’s got a lot to offer, and they like him a lot. But if they bring in a veteran, that would hurt his chances.

#23 – What will the Eagles do at backup RB?

This is big as it relates to starter LeSean McCoy’s value. If we’ve learned one thing about HC Andy Reid and RBs, it’s that he’s hesitant to hand young backs a key role, so you can forget about rookie Dion Lewis making much of an impact this year. One need to keep in mind is Brian Westbrook. He’s a veteran who would love to play on the East Coast, plus he looked pretty darn good last year and obviously knows the system. If they bring BW back, that’s going to affect McCoy’s value.

#24 – Where will veterans Chad Ochocinco, Randy Moss, and Plaxico Burress land?

None of these veterans will command a high pick in fantasy, but what they will do is affect the depth charts on the teams they sign with, so their movement will have fantasy implications, perhaps big ones.

#25 – Will the Rams pick up a veteran wide receiver?

It’s interesting because there’s great quantity here, but we’re not yet sure if there’s quality. I actually think Donnie Avery is a great fit for the new scheme, but the lockout will hurt the implementation of that scheme. If they bring a guy like Burress in, it’s probably because they still don’t trust the talented Danario Alexander. That could also affect their interest in re-signing veteran Mark Clayton.

There have been some reports that there was a “bone-on-bone” issue with his knee, which I actually didn’t ask him about because MJD was pretty darn optimistic on his recovery. And as he said in the interview, he plays fantasy and knows how it is for fantasy players dealing with injuries, so he’s always going to be honest with his status.

Jaguar RB Maurice Jones-Drew told me on 7/1 that he "pretty much" ran for 100+ yards from Weeks 8-13 on one leg.

For one, Jones-Drew said the surgery “wasn’t anything major.” He did say it was a little more than a torn meniscus, and that the doctor’s had to clear up a little more “stuff,” but this was an injury he actually suffered in the summer. He could have had surgery in August and missed some time, but he wanted to play. By midseason or so, it was very problematic, and he told me that he basically played on one leg his final 6-7 games (he went [...]]]> On Friday night, I was able to speak with Jaguar RB Maurice Jones-Drew on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports radio, so I figured I would share what he had to say about his injury status.

There have been some reports that there was a “bone-on-bone” issue with his knee, which I actually didn’t ask him about because MJD was pretty darn optimistic on his recovery. And as he said in the interview, he plays fantasy and knows how it is for fantasy players dealing with injuries, so he’s always going to be honest with his status.

Jaguar RB Maurice Jones-Drew told me on 7/1 that he "pretty much" ran for 100+ yards from Weeks 8-13 on one leg.

For one, Jones-Drew said the surgery “wasn’t anything major.” He did say it was a little more than a torn meniscus, and that the doctor’s had to clear up a little more “stuff,” but this was an injury he actually suffered in the summer. He could have had surgery in August and missed some time, but he wanted to play. By midseason or so, it was very problematic, and he told me that he basically played on one leg his final 6-7 games (he went over 100 yards six straight weeks during this time).

As for his status now, he told me he’s like 80-85% recovered and he’s been working out and running to continue to get stronger with the goal of being 100% by August within reach. I asked him if he gets to 100% if there’s any chance he could aggravate or re injure the knee, and he said there were no concerns there and that “they took care of everything.”

MJD told me that he’s running and cutting well and people watching him say he looks good.

In short, MJD downplayed the injury and seemed pretty darn confident that it’s not going to be an issue going forward. Generally speaking, that’s what you’re looking at with a repaired meniscus. In many cases, the subjects feel even better than before, since they had been slowed or bothered by the injury, as MJD was for most of the 2010 season, if not all of it.

Finally, from a fantasy perspective, I talked to Jones-Drew about his ADP, and he used the word “crazy” to describe how he’s now a late 1^st round pick. Sure, all athletes talk themselves up, but MJD made the point that he did what he did (6^th at RB in points per game) on one leg.

So now that we heard it directly from the horse’s mouth that MJD is probably going to be fine for the season, it is kind of crazy that he can be had late in the 1^st round.

That looks like a value, people.

I’m alive and well, just like the NFL season. Way back in February I promised that we’d be ready to go once the offseason labor drama was settled, and we’re on target for that. We’ve essentially stayed with our usual publishing schedule, and we’ve been putting the finishing touches on well over 300 massive player profiles now. Unfortunately for us, we’ll have to tweak them big time once free agency kicks off, so we’re probably not going to release these profiles for a few weeks, but we’ll be ready and on track, as promised.

We’ve also been working on a few subtle enhancements, as we always are this time of the year. We have a couple of nice new tools to roll out later in the summer, but just yesterday we released a revised Subscriber Index Page. This page is a little less busy, [...]]]> It has been a while since I have posted to this blog, so I figured I should chime in to prove to people that I am still alive. Actually, if you have been reading the last 4-5 big articles we have posted on the site, you should know I am still among the living, since I wrote them.

I’m alive and well, just like the NFL season. Way back in February I promised that we’d be ready to go once the offseason labor drama was settled, and we’re on target for that. We’ve essentially stayed with our usual publishing schedule, and we’ve been putting the finishing touches on well over 300 massive player profiles now. Unfortunately for us, we’ll have to tweak them big time once free agency kicks off, so we’re probably not going to release these profiles for a few weeks, but we’ll be ready and on track, as promised.

We’ve also been working on a few subtle enhancements, as we always are this time of the year. We have a couple of nice new tools to roll out later in the summer, but just yesterday we released a revised Subscriber Index Page. This page is a little less busy, and the big upgrade is the top story scroll. Now, instead of just one top story, our homepage will scroll through 4-6 of the top stories that we feel need to be featured, which is a nice addition. The page otherwise is a little cleaner than it was, so that’s also good.

We also added this week a small thing on each player page. When you check one out now, you’ll see our latest comments on the player from both our projections (updated 2-3 times a week in the preseason and even more often during the season for a particular week) and also from our keeper rankings. So if you’re ever wondering what we think about a player for the season/upcoming week or for the long-term, you can simply look the player up and check that out. I think that’s a nice little addition, and for people who think we produce too much content, if you really want the Cliff Notes version on a player, you can simply look the player up and check out his player page.

Next up, we’ll be getting the Draft Analyzer software back up and running, and we’re working on an iphone/android application for the season, which will be a app version of MyGuru. We’re also working on a mock draft engine that should be good to go this year courtesy of myfantasyleague.com, so users can come to our site and join a mock at any time. They will be continually running, and if leagues aren’t filled those empty teams will be filled by the computer. I’m sure we’ll have a few more surprises. It’s been a tough year to invest in infrastructure and site upgrades, but it wouldn’t be a new season for me without at least a few new things for subscribers to enjoy, and we will have some things this year.

It’s been a tough offseason, but it looks like we’re almost out of the woods and that we will have a full 16-game NFL season. I’m not going to lie and say I was never worried, but I’ve pretty much said that this thing will get done in time to save the full season all along.

It’s going to be a lot more hectic in July and August since free agency will be a wild ride, but you can be damn sure I’m not complaining.

We are in the very early stages of handicapping this year’s OLs, and things could change somewhat dramatically once we see free agency, but since it’s almost June it’s time to at least give a glimpse of how we see the OLs stacking up. These rankings were considered when we did our initial 2011 projections, which were posted this week.

Later on this summer, once this labor mess clears up, we’ll be back with a detailed preview of each line, and we’ll re-rank them based on any key free agent losses or additions, health, and more.

1.  New York Jets Run Grade 95 Pass Grade 91 Total 186 Very good for the run last year and well above average for the pass, so still one of the best lines in the business.

2.  New England Patriots Run Grade 93 Pass Grade 93 Total 186 Extremely effective for the run [...]]]> I have learned over the years that it is very tough to predict the performance of an entire offensive line, unless you are dealing with a line that was exceptionally good or bad the year before. Sometimes, things just come together well for a unit, as they did in Kansas City last year. And sometimes, they don’t.

We are in the very early stages of handicapping this year’s OLs, and things could change somewhat dramatically once we see free agency, but since it’s almost June it’s time to at least give a glimpse of how we see the OLs stacking up. These rankings were considered when we did our initial 2011 projections, which were posted this week.

Later on this summer, once this labor mess clears up, we’ll be back with a detailed preview of each line, and we’ll re-rank them based on any key free agent losses or additions, health, and more.

1.  New York Jets Run Grade 95 Pass Grade 91 Total 186
Very good for the run last year and well above average for the pass, so still one of the best lines in the business.

2.  New England Patriots Run Grade 93 Pass Grade 93 Total 186
Extremely effective for the run last year and very good as usual for the pass and drafting of T Solder will help offset loss of Light.

3.  New Orleans Saints Run Grade 92 Pass Grade 92 Total 184
Did a good job for the run again this year and their pass protection was overall solid as usual, so still look like one of the better OLs in the biz.

4.  New York Giants Run Grade 88 Pass Grade 92 Total 180
They’re trying to get younger but in 2010 they started off slow yet were still well above average for the run and very good for the pass, as Manning was rarely sacked.

5.  Tennessee Titans Run Grade 88 Pass Grade 89 Total 177
Getting older now and shakier for the run this past year, plus Johnson didn’t run as well, but still held up well for the pass and overall this line still stacks up well.

6.  Houston Texans Run Grade 88 Pass Grade 89 Total 177
They have finally figured it out up front and RB Foster’s production in 2010 and QB Schaub’s durability last two years show that, so pretty darn solid all-around

7.  Philadelphia Eagles Run Grade 91 Pass Grade 86 Total 177
Some issues early in season, but a good job blocking for the run. Pass pro was another story, although Vick can make any line look bad at times. #1 pick Danny Watkins plays inside, but he can only help them.

8.  Atlanta Falcons Run Grade 88 Pass Grade 88 Total 176
Graded out well for the run and the pass again in 2010 so this is a pretty stable and solid line.

9.  San Diego Chargers Run Grade 88 Pass Grade 88 Total 176
LT McNeil finally reported last year and the line was decent in blocking for the run and the pass, but they didn’t draft anyone of note.

10.  Kansas City Chiefs Run Grade 89 Pass Grade 87 Total 176
This line wasn’t great in pass pro, but they were outstanding blocking for the run and upgraded their interior with #2 pick Rodney Hudson

11.  Green Bay Packers Run Grade 87 Pass Grade 89 Total 176
Haven’t totally put it together yet but they keep getting younger and now have two #1 picks at T and with a strong RB group in place they should show good improvement.

12.  Dallas Cowboys Run Grade 88 Pass Grade 88 Total 176
Although far from dominant in 2010, they graded out pretty well for the run and the pass and #1 pick Tyron Smith can only help them, so still a respectable line.

13.  Cleveland Browns Run Grade 89 Pass Grade 87 Total 176
Pretty solid for the run as expected but not as good for the pass, yet the personnel could be a factor in that.

14.  Baltimore Ravens Run Grade 88 Pass Grade 86 Total 174
Solid for the run in ’10 but less effective than in the past and have an issue at T as pass pro was worse than usual, although slow receivers didn’t help. 3rd round pick T Jah Reid could help

15.  Carolina Panthers Run Grade 86 Pass Grade 88 Total 174
Talent is there, but injuries hurt them in 2010. If RT Otah is back this year they should be one of the better lines out there, yet you wouldn’t know it from their offensive success.

16.  Detroit Lions Run Grade 86 Pass Grade 88 Total 174
Their rushing stats were bad, but that’s probably not the OL’s fault as they had a poor running game, and they held up very well for the pass and have all five starters back.

17.  Pittsburgh Steelers Run Grade 87 Pass Grade 87 Total 174
Never a team strength but if they are healthier they could improve, and the OL wasn’t a huge weakness for them last year.

18.  Jacksonville Jaguars Run Grade 89 Pass Grade 85 Total 174
They were actually outstanding for the run at times last year, as their high draft picks on the line are helping, but they have room for improvement in pass protection.

19.  Stl Louis Rams Run Grade 86 Pass Grade 88 Total 174
They’re not there yet, but the OL clearly improved as the season wore on and were better for the pass than the run, and at least we can say this OL isn’t a liability.

20.  Cincinnati Bengals Run Grade 86 Pass Grade 87 Total 173
Fell off blocking for the run after a solid 2009, yet improved blocking for the pass after a weak ’09 in that area, so hard to handicap this line.

21.  Indianapolis Colts Run Grade 86 Pass Grade 87 Total 173
Terrible for the run last year and while Manning makes them look much better than they are for the pass, they were weak in that area too, but some help is on the way with their #1 and #2 picks.

22.  Miami Dolphins Run Grade 85 Pass Grade 86 Total 171
Really struggled blocking for the run inside this past year and were average for the pass, but #1 pick Pouncey will help inside and they do have some solid talent.

23.  Denver Broncos Run Grade 85 Pass Grade 85 Total 170
Below average for the run in 2010 and only average for the pass so probably a below-average OL all things considered. #2 pick Orlando Franklin may help depth and performance.

24.  San Francisco 49ers Run Grade 88 Pass Grade 85 Total 173
Better for the run than the pass but they are young and have talent, so they could be slightly above average at worst.

25.  Washington Redskins Run Grade 87 Pass Grade 85 Total 172
We thought their bookend tackles would really help them last year but they were actually much better for the run than the pass in 2010, so fair to skeptical, yet this line isn’t awful.

26.   Oakland Raiders Run Grade 87 Pass Grade 84 Total 171
Not a very talented line and could lose veteran Gallery, but they were fantastic for the run last year at least, yet pass protection is an issue for them.

27.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers Run Grade 86 Pass Grade 85 Total 171
They may be losing some players to FA and this is a line that seems to be slipping in all areas so this is a bit of a red flag for this team.

28.  Minnesota Vikings Run Grade 85 Pass Grade 85 Total 170
Run numbers look better than they should because Peterson is one of the best of all time, and they are pretty bad blocking for the pass, so this is a poor group.

29.  Chicago Bears Run Grade 84 Pass Grade 86 Total 170
New OL coach Mike Tice did get this group to play better after a laughable start, and #1 pick Carimi has to help pass protection, but they are still shaky inside.

30.  Seattle Seahawks Run Grade 85 Pass Grade 85 Total 170
They are certainly trying to upgrade the OL in the draft with two consecutive #1 picks in 2009-2010 but they were still quite shaky in 2010 and it’s fair to remain skeptical.

31.  Buffalo Bills Run Grade 84 Pass Grade 85 Total 169
Still have serious talent issues throughout the line but they actually weren’t awful in 2010 at least.

32.  Arizona Cardinals Run Grade 84 Pass Grade 85 Total 169
Graded out below average for the run and the pass in 2010 and their starting five is up on the air with free agency, so things aren’t looking particularly good.

I picked 3rd, and after doing some stat research on my first pick, I surprised by selecting him over Chris Johnson.

Jamaal Charles – I had just so happened to study some deep stats on Charles yesterday, and everything revealed a budding star in the NFL. We all know he’s good by watching him play, but the stats say he’s beyond good, and the Chiefs are still an ascending team, so I took him. I’m not sure I would have taken him in a real draft, but based on this team and the two player’s performance last year, I do feel better about him than Chris Johnson, who I passed on.

Larry Fitzgerald [...]]]> I did another mock draft last night for another magazine (Lindys Fantasy Football), and while I cannot publish the entire draft, I can list here my team and go over that. This league is a non-PPR league. 12 teams, and the only other scoring nuance of note was that it’s only 3 points per passing TD (and 6 points per rushing/receiving), which devalues the QBs. But I’m usually of the opinion that, if the scoring is the same for everyone, a rule like that can’t devalue the QBs too much.

I picked 3^rd, and after doing some stat research on my first pick, I surprised by selecting him over Chris Johnson.

Jamaal Charles – I had just so happened to study some deep stats on Charles yesterday, and everything revealed a budding star in the NFL. We all know he’s good by watching him play, but the stats say he’s beyond good, and the Chiefs are still an ascending team, so I took him. I’m not sure I would have taken him in a real draft, but based on this team and the two player’s performance last year, I do feel better about him than Chris Johnson, who I passed on.

Larry Fitzgerald – You have to take advantage of any possible value, and it’s always wise to take any “sure things” left on the board, so I find myself targeting Fitzgerald in the 2^nd round. If he had a real QB, he’d be going a little earlier, and I think he will have a real QB at some time this year (Kevin Kolb clearly being the front-runner).

Ahmad Bradshaw – Nothing wrong with this guy, as an inspection of his numbers showed a runner who was rock solid in pretty much every category other than yards per catch in the passing game.

Antonio Gates – I was all set to grab Santonio Holmes as my #2 WR, with the plan being to hold off a little on TE, but be went one pick in front of me. So I went BPA, and played it “safe” with Gates. Granted, he is coming off some problematic injuries, but he was on a ballistic pace last year and there is nice continuity here.

Peyton Manning – The QBs are devalued a little based on the scoring, but Peyton Manning in the 4^th round of a 12-team league is pretty hard to pass up. If you take a QB and TE in the first four rounds, you’ll have a pair of studs most likely, but you better do well with your later picks at RB and WR. I’m not sure I did in this one.

Johnny Knox – I’m not in love with the pick based on the round, but Knox does have some things going for him and I needed a WR, preferably one who was his team’s go-to guy. I know he was my guy last year and he probably let people down. But when you consider most players fall short of expectations in general, he was pretty solid. I certainly wasn’t wrong to argue that he was the guy to get here, and with any luck whatsoever, he could have been a top-20 WR. He may be a little luckier this year, and the Bears have yet to add a WR this offseason.

Ryan Williams – I was set to grab Cedric Benson here, but he went right in front of me, so I reached on Williams. This could be either a wasted pick or my best pick; we’ll just have to see. It was probably 1-2 rounds too early for him. I did also get Bean Wells, but there was no value whatsoever in either. But Williams has the tools and the potential to be borderline special, and I like taking those kinds of risks.

Deion Branch – For some reasons, I keep taking Branch in these mocks drafts and this is three-for-three taking him. But he’s always my #3, and that’s not bad considering his good situation and the fact that the Pats haven’t added a WR. So for now, I’m basically drafting the Patriots’ #1 WR on the outside. The next three WRs drafted were Jordy Nelson, Braylon Edwards, and Julio Jones, and Branch is a safer bet than any of those most likely.

Chris Wells – At this point I’m not tracking the draft as I should and crossing people off my list so I know exactly who the best players available are, so I’m slacking a little bit. Once again, I’m watching 5-year old twins alone while drafting. In a “real” draft, I’d be making some arrangements so I can focus. Anyway, I do have Ryan Williams, so I saw Beanie on the board and secured that backfield. Both players have definite upside, so I just hope one guy clearly emerges. I probably should have taken Mike Tolbert, However.

LaDainian Tomlinson – Looking for some depth in the 10^th round, and LT made some sense here based on his 2010 season and the fact that the Jets seem unwilling to totally commit to Shonn Greene. Other RBs drafted in this round were Donald Brown, Kendall Hunter, and Delone Carter, so LT was a decent and reliable option.

Chad Ochocinco – I’m not in love with this pick for obvious reasons, but having Branch in New England was a factor. Who knows if the Pats will entertain him, but Ochocinco would certainly love to play for them. Come to think of it, I can’t see the Pats doing it, even though he’d made a lot of sense for them. Other WRs taken in this round were Terrell Owens, Lance Moore, Arrelious Benn, and rookie Jonathan Baldwin. Moore was probably the better pick and now that I think about it, I don’t know why the hell I took this pain in the ass Ochocinco over Moore.

Lee Evans – I guess he was a value, but he’s going late for a reason: he stinks for fantasy. At least Ryan Fitzpatrick and back and head coach Chan Gailey has spoken this year about how he’s gotta do a better job getting Evans involved in the intermediate area, and not just downfield.

New York Jets – The last two rounds and the defenses are flying off the board. The Jets were a buzzkill last year for fantasy, so at least this year they don’t cost much. They were the 6^th defense off the board.

Josh Brown – Brown was actually money late last year, and the team is improving, so I like him as an option.

Starting Lineup (no Flex)

QB: Peyton Manning

RB: Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw

WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Johnny Knox, Deion Branch

TE: Antonio Gates

PK: Josh Brown

DT: NY Jets

Final Thoughts: Not a bad team at all, but I clearly have some issues at WR. As usual, if you take a QB and a TE early, you’re going to have a hole somewhere else in an expert league. But if that’s the way the draft flows, that’s the way it flows. It’s more important to get as many impact players/studs as possible early to be the foundation of your team because you know plenty of good options are going to emerge later one. One again, if you look at this team you see a lot of stability and continuity, two huge factors as we navigate in uncharted waters in terms of this whacky offseason.

But this was a damn good draft. 14-teams, non-PPR, and I picked 7th. Starting lineup is 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 DT, and 1 PK.

1.    Rashard Mendanhall, RB – Solid #1 RB, as long as you can look past his unwise comments from last week. As for my fantasy team, however, I couldn’t care less, as long as he produces.

2.    Hakeem Nicks, WR – Some dude on facebook was critical of my pick of Nicks with the 5th pick in the 2nd round in the other mock. Um, he’s a young emerging stud in a good situation and he was #1 in points per game last year in his 13 games. He even came back nearly twice as fast as expected from a serious injury and not only that produced big [...]]]> I am working on a review of a 12-team mock draft that I did last week, but I figured I would post up another mock I did last week as well, since I can only post my team and it’s a much quicker write. The mock was for the Rotowire fantasy magazine, so I don’t want to publish the results until after it’s released.

But this was a damn good draft. 14-teams, non-PPR, and I picked 7^th. Starting lineup is 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 DT, and 1 PK.

1.    Rashard Mendanhall, RB – Solid #1 RB, as long as you can look past his unwise comments from last week. As for my fantasy team, however, I couldn’t care less, as long as he produces.

2.    Hakeem Nicks, WR – Some dude on facebook was critical of my pick of Nicks with the 5^th pick in the 2^nd round in the other mock. Um, he’s a young emerging stud in a good situation and he was #1 in points per game last year in his 13 games. He even came back nearly twice as fast as expected from a serious injury and not only that produced big time when he returned (#10 in PPG Weeks 14-16). He’ll also be needed more than ever with Steve Smith’s status up in the air. Yeah, that was a terrible pick.

3.    Vincent Jackson, WR – I’ve been a big Jackson advocate for a long time, and I fully expect him to be the #1 WR in this great offense. Love the continuity here with the lockout messing a lot of other teams up.

4.    Peyton Manning, QB – That’s how it goes in these Expert Drafts: the QBs stay on the board way too long. Peyton Manning in the 4^th round of a 14-team league? Uh, I’ll take that. I’m all about playing it safe in an unstable environment, but I do love impact players. Manning’s got both covered.

5.    Cedric Benson, RB – Considering the round drafted, not a bad #2 RB in a large league, one that is non-PPR. I fully expect him back in Cincy and they want to run the crap out of the ball.

6.    James Starks, RB – When you’re feeling really good during a draft, you might tend to reach a little, especially when you have a positional need, which explains this pick. It’s a committee/clusterf__ck here potentially, but there is a chance Ryan Grant is released, albeit a slight one. If so, Starks will be a tremendous pick, even though Alex Green is very intriguing here.

7.    Jimmy Graham, TE – This pick may have made my whole draft. The hype machine is about to get started on Graham this year, and while his ADP may rise to an uncomfortable level this summer, he was a really nice value in a 14-team league. By holding off a little on a TE and potentially getting a top-10 producer, my team greatly benefits.

8.    Deion Branch, WR – I guess I’m alone on this one, but Branch was 19^th in fantasy last year during his time with the Patriots. The Pats didn’t add a WR in the draft, so there’s a good chance Branch will be a key target again for Tom Brady in this good offense. I like him as a #3 WR in a deep league.

9.    Mike Tolbert, RB – Nice pick as a backup option, one who could easily be worth starting each week in this larger league. There’s no doubt Ryan Mathews will get a healthier percentage of the touches, but Tolbert’s not going away, and he could still vulture 8-9 TDs from Mathews.

10. Mike Thomas, WR – It’s not a PPR, but this is a value in a 14-team league. The Jags are very high on him, and in fact, he’s the guy at WR for them. I don’t see anyone else stepping in here and getting more action than Thomas, assuming Mike Sims-Walker is gone as expected.

11. Kendall Hunter, RB – I don’t own Frankie Gore, but Hunter is a nice sleeper option for me just the same. If all goes well for him, I can see him getting 8-10 touches a game, and there’s also a chance he takes over for Gore if he gets hurt. Hunter is very highly-regarded.

12. Dustin Keller, TE – That’s a really nice backup TE, and if Braylon Edwards is gone, Keller could easily be not only a top-10 producer, but someone I can use all year if need be.

13. Vincent Brown, WR – Not only do we like Brown a lot on his own, but he can also serve as a handcuff of sorts for Vincent Jackson.

14. New England Patriots, DEF – They were the #1 fantasy defense last year. You can’t count on TDs as a general rule, but they did improve as the season wore on and they do have a good return game.

15. Garrett Hartley, K – Nice option now that he’s pretty much shown he can be relied on.

Starting Lineup

QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Rashard Mendenhall
RB: Cedric Benson
WR: Hakeem Nicks
WR: Vincent Jackson
WR: Deion Branch
Flex: James Starks/Mike Tolbert/Mike Thomas
TE: Jimmy Graham
PK: Garrett Hartley
DT: New England

Well, they just got more complicated for me.

In the past, we’ve only been able to rank keepers on a static page, one that was not tied to our database. Now, our keeper rankings will be presented like our regular projections, and even better I have added some category grades to try to put these players into better perspective. I basically have combined a few criteria (graded from 1-10 with 10 being the highest grade) for each of these two categories. They are:

Talent: This is basically self-explanatory, but I consider not only what the player has to work with physically but also what the player is capable of becoming down the road.

Opportunity: This is where I’m considering a few factors. Obviously, [...]]]> Note: Check out our new Keeper/Dynasty Rankings here. We’ll release our Post-Draft Rookie Report on Friday.

I know people have been asking for more keeper and dynasty content, and I certainly want to appease them. During the season, there are weeks when I’m literally ranking and projecting 1200 players. That occurs when I do updated keeper rankings, update the rest-of-the-season projections, and rankings for the upcoming week within a two day period. These rankings take forever, and the keeper rankings an eternity.

Well, they just got more complicated for me.

In the past, we’ve only been able to rank keepers on a static page, one that was not tied to our database. Now, our keeper rankings will be presented like our regular projections, and even better I have added some category grades to try to put these players into better perspective. I basically have combined a few criteria (graded from 1-10 with 10 being the highest grade) for each of these two categories. They are:

Talent: This is basically self-explanatory, but I consider not only what the player has to work with physically but also what the player is capable of becoming down the road.

Opportunity: This is where I’m considering a few factors. Obviously, role is one of the key ones, but durability falls under this category as well. If you’re unable to play, that hurts your opportunity. I also take into account offensive system and supporting cast.

These grades aren’t perfect, but they should help put these players in better context and offer a bit more than we have been offering.

With our new Keeper/Dyansty League display, our rankings are now offered up in a more dynamic and easier to handle way

Another advantage to this new look is how you can now generate a more printer-friendly page for each position and print out keeper rankings, and of course you can view by each position only, which is better. The one thing I cannot do is rank players overall because there are way too many variables involved in a keeper or dynasty league. I can try doing that for just each upcoming season, but not for the next 2-3 years.

Of course, I still comment on the players, offer upside/downside designations, list players who have moved up or down the list since the last update, and also flag guys as dynasty options. The dynasty option is tough to wrap my head around because anyone near the top of the list is obviously a dynasty option, so basically a dynasty guy is anyone I think has a chance to have a little more value than expected right now, and probably, more importantly, down the road. These are basically younger players I think have a chance, so while I wouldn’t keep them in a keeper league that retained only 4-5 players, I’d consider them viable in a league that kept 15-20 players. It’s tough to qualify everyone because, while I don’t think a guy like Earl Bennett in Chicago is going to be very exciting these next few years, and I don’t think he’s a great long-term prospect, he will likely help the Bears right now, so he is certainly viable in a dynasty league.

I took a ton of time to populate this first dynamic keeper ranking offering, obviously considering all the events of the draft and more, and I will try to update them every two weeks going forward. I’VE COVERED 425 SKILL PLAYERS, SO I THINK I HAVE ANYONE WHO SHOULD BE NOTED, NOTED.

Also, one other cool thing we’re going to get rolling soon: when you go to an individual’s player page, you’ll see our latest keeper/dynasty comment marked by date and also our latest preseason/ in-season comment for whole season and for the upcoming week displayed by date. So if you ever want to quickly see what we think about a player for a keeper league, for the whole season/rest of the season, or for the upcoming week, you can quickly see all that on a player’s page.

My first inclination, as I’ve conveyed a bit in this blog already this year, is that 2011 is not a year to mess around with for obvious reasons (the lockout). I’m not going to try to be a hero, and I’m going to play things a little conservatively. At least I’m going to try to. It might be tough because I’m a play-to-win guy, but I think it would behoove fantasy players to focus on as many stable options as possible, at least in the first 4-6 rounds of a draft. That means eliminating as much risk as possible.

And that’s why I think Michael Vick should not be drafted as the #1 QB in 2011. In fact, I don’t think he should be the second or even the third fantasy QB drafted.  At some point, likely any time in the 2nd round, he is too flashy and exciting to pass up on, but pass on him I might because I think it’s more important to avoid downside this year than it is to [...]]]> I am participating in my first fantasy draft of the year tonight for MyFantasyLeague.com, so I am starting to think about my overall draft strategy for this year.

My first inclination, as I’ve conveyed a bit in this blog already this year, is that 2011 is not a year to mess around with for obvious reasons (the lockout). I’m not going to try to be a hero, and I’m going to play things a little conservatively. At least I’m going to try to. It might be tough because I’m a play-to-win guy, but I think it would behoove fantasy players to focus on as many stable options as possible, at least in the first 4-6 rounds of a draft. That means eliminating as much risk as possible.

And that’s why I think Michael Vick should not be drafted as the #1 QB in 2011. In fact, I don’t think he should be the second or even the third fantasy QB drafted.  At some point, likely any time in the 2^nd round, he is too flashy and exciting to pass up on, but pass on him I might because I think it’s more important to avoid downside this year than it is to go for upside. Vick’s upside is insane, as he proved last year, but he also showed some downside.

Michael Vick was fantastic in 2010, but taking him too high could be playing with fire in 2011

Obviously, I’m talking about the injury factor. While Vick has actually been fairly durable over the course of his career for a guy who runs so much, he’s clearly someone who’s a good bet to miss some time at this point in his career. Last year, Vick missed 3 of 14 possible starts. Back in 2006, his last full season before 2011, Vick didn’t miss a game. But he missed a game in 2005, 2004, and 2002. In 2003, he broke his leg and played in only 5 games.

Vick took a pounding last year, which is a concern. I actually interviewed him by phone earlier in his career and asked him if he was hurting every Monday after taking all the hits he was taking, and he said he was not and felt fine. Not only was he probably lying, but he was also a 22-year old guy at the time. He’ll be 31 next month, so it’s going to get harder and harder to bounce back from those hits. He’ll almost certainly miss some time, and no one’s going to be surprised if he missed 2-4 games this year. The nature of the Eagle offense only compounds the injury risk Vick always presents.

On the other hand, people are going to be shocked if Peyton Manning misses just a single game, and pretty darn surprised if Drew Brees does. They may not be floored if Aaron Rodgers misses a start because of his concussion issues, but Rodgers has made 47 of 48 possible starts the last three years. All totaled, this trio has officially made 143 of 144 possible starts the last three years, with Rodgers’ game missed this past year due to a concussion the only missed start. Going back to 2004, Manning and Brees have made 223 of 223 starts, which is insanely reliable (Brees missed one game because they had locked up their playoff positioning in 2009). I’m not worried about Manning or Brees missing time, that’s for sure.

I am a little worried about Rodgers, but the guy’s obviously fantastic, and his offense is absolutely loaded. Rodgers, of course, can do serious damage with his legs and augment his already great fantasy value, but his passing skills are incredible. Considering he’s in a great situation and does most of his damage throwing the ball and plays on a team that will commit to the run somewhat regularly, his downside doesn’t appear to be significant. That leads me back to Vick. Vick clearly improved greatly last year in terms of setting his feet and looking to pass after scrambling, and he was more relaxed and composed, and pretty darn decisive and accurate. He was clearly receptive to coaching, and that was the difference. However, his accuracy and touch in the middle of the field was still shaky, and by the end of the season he was starting to overreact to pressure. He was too quick to throw or move, and he started to be more erratic with his accuracy, plus he started missing big plays that were on the field. It seemed like he started to revert to previous form, and his instincts started taking over, which isn’t really a good thing for Vick. Finally, he didn’t handle the blitz very well. One needs to look no further than that pivotal Week Sixteen loss against the Vikings for proof of that. The mediocre Viking defense put a lot of pressure on Vick, and while he still put up numbers, his level of play dropped, and at times he even looked a little overmatched. They lost the game, their crack at home field advantage, and the rest is history (the Packers also handled him well in the post-season).

So there were some warning signs from Vick the player on the field later in the season, which is disconcerting. We know Rodgers, Manning, and Brees won’t have any serious issues as long as they’re on the field – and we’re pretty sure they’re going to be on the field.

I’m not so sure Vick will be on the field all 16 weeks, and in fact I’m pretty sure he won’t be, so I’ll probably be passing on him unless most in my draft feel the same way as I do. If so, then Vick’s upside may be too good to pass up in the 2^nd round. But I’m pretty comfortable ranking him at “only” #4 at the QB position this year.