Fantasy Guru Blog

Sleeper alert: Bilal Powell

John Hansen — Sun, 02 Jun 2013 16:33:36 +0000

After closely studying the initial ADPs this year for the ADP article we posted on Friday and seeing how fantasy owners are scarfing up RBs like it’s going out of style, one of my main missions this year is to find some RBs who have a chance to be impactful but aren’t getting any love, and I have one in AFC East.

With veteran Mike Goodson having an ugly off-season that includes a May 17 arrest in New Jersey on drug and weapons charges, which could result in prison time, and a new paternity suit being filed this week (and he has others), it’s time to start talking about a potential sleeper RB for the Jets: Bilal Powell.

Goodson is still on the roster and has the speed they need in their backfield, but between his off-field issues and injury history, he’s very hard to count on. They obviously brought former Saint Chris Ivory in to be their lead back, and Ivory does run very hard and has good explosiveness for power back. But he’s also dealt with a multitude of injuries, despite never coming close to carrying the load for a rushing attack.

Bilal Powell was a solid goal line back in 2012, but he can also catch the ball and produce in the passing game.

At 5’10, 204 pounds, Powell is the incumbent here, and while his career hasn’t blown anyone away thus far, he’s not a bad player. In 2012, he emerged as an effective goal line back, and for a time in the second half of the season last year, he emerged as the goal line back over Shonn Greene. Powell had five carries inside the 10 yard line last year, and he scored on three of those carries. If he got the ball inside the 5 in 2012, he scored a TD. He had six games last year in which he had double-digit carries, and he averaged a solid 4.2 yards per carry in those games. In addition, Powell can catch the ball and pose a threat in the passing game. Although his catch rate for the season was a miserable 47.2% (keep in mind the Jets were horrendous on offense), he did improve greatly in the second half of the season and posted a solid 68.4% catch rate. He was able to average a very serviceable 8.2 yards per catch on his 17 grabs in 2012.

Powell hasn’t proven to be an iron man thus far, so injuries are slight concern (he missed two games last year), but they’re a greater concern for Ivory. If Goodson isn’t in the mix this year for the Jets, I have to think Powell will be a large factor in this offense, especially since Ivory has only 3 career receptions in 24 career games. Keep in mind former Eagle coach Marty Mornhinweg is the new OC for the Jets, so they should be throwing the ball to their backs. Even if Goodson is on the roster, Powell has better size for short-yardage work, and Goodson himself also has durability issues. I’m sure Ivory will be the main guy, and I’m sure he’ll be on the field running violently come September. But will he be able to hold up in the process? That is a major question.

I’m not saying Powell is a great breakout candidate, but especially for those in larger and deeper leagues, it’s time to put him on the radar as a legitimate deep sleeper and a guy who could easily be very handy for fantasy in 2013.

10 Draft Tips for 2013

John Hansen — Tue, 21 May 2013 16:35:28 +0000

The NFL and fantasy landscapes change quickly these days, so if you have a draft strategy, it had better be year-specific. I have already done several mock and real drafts for various publications, and the 2013 trends are pretty clear – so they dominate the following 10 draft tips.

Try to hold off a little before drafting a QB – To summarize the best 2013 draft approach in a word, it’s “patience,” and that specifically applies to the QB position. Just 2-3 years ago, I was all about getting as many impact players as possible, regardless of position, and QB was a big part of that approach. After the passing game bonanza that we saw in 2011, you’d think that I’d be all over the signal-callers as rock-solid early picks. I do still believe in the BPA approach (best player available), and the top QBs are almost always safe and extremely productive options. But in 2013, it doesn’t make nearly as much sense taking a QB early as it did even just one year ago. There are many paths to a championship, and there’s nothing wrong with using a No.1 pick on Aaron Rodgers, or a 2^nd-round snag of Drew Brees. But obviously, there’s no value in it, either. I’ve seen Cam Newton slip to the 7^th round of a 10-team draft this year, for example, which is outrageous. And great options like Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, and Russell Wilson will cost much less than the top dogs. Ultimately, your best chance for domination is clearly holding off a bit on drafting a QB while loading up on talent at the other skill positions. If you hit on those picks and slam it out of the park with a guy like Luck or Kaepernick, then you’ll have formed a fantasy all-star team.

Going RB-RB with your first two picks is more viable than it’s been in quite some time – The key, of course, is picking the right two players – two options who are very deserving of such a high pick. That might not be viable for those who draft near the top of Round One, since the talent level at the RB position does dry up considerably after the first 13-15 backs are off the board. But for those drafting near the end of the first round, kickin’ it old school and going RB-RB looks like a great play this year. Again, that is due in large part to the outstanding depth at QB and WR, but also due to the quality at the top of the RB position. It’s entirely possible, for example, to grab a Marshawn Lynch and an Alfred Morris with your first two picks this year, or a LeSean McCoy and a Matt Forte, and both would be great starts to a draft. There’s almost always a hole left at RB or WR if you take a QB or TE very early, so the best plan is to not do that, especially since QB is so deep and WR is deep enough to still get at least two excellent options in the 3^rd-5^th rounds.

TE is not a position to invest heavily in – Ironically, the lone exception is New Orleans’ Jimmy Graham, who I think is worth a top-15 pick this year. I do because the number of high-end options at this position in 2012 has fallen off, due in large part to the questionable status of Patriot Rob Gronkowski. An advantage can be gained this year if you dominate TE production with a stud like
Investing in TE Jimmy Graham early could pay off big in 2013, but you will have to make up for it by drafting well in the middle rounds to make sure you’re strong at RB-WR.

Graham, but you do have to make up for using a high pick on a TE while others are loading up on stud RBs and WRs. If you do by drafting well in the middle rounds, then your team just might be devastating with a major positional edge at TE. If you fail to hit on 1-2 mid-round picks, however, drafting Graham could leave you with a fairly significant hole on your roster. And since there are some appealing TE options who should be available in the middle rounds (I really like Dennis Pitta as one of them), holding off on TE is just as viable as drafting Graham early and is probably a little safer.

Reaching for players is not advisable – An overriding theme of this article is the ridiculous depth available at all skill positions other than TE. Whenever the viable player pool is larger than we’re used to, that makes reaching for a player with some issues – durability, inexperience, etc. – even riskier. With great depth at QB, RB, and WR, fantasy players have options and can be flexible. Although it pains me to write this because I’m an aggressive player, they can also be conservative. So that means trying to be a hero by drafting Giant RB David Wilson, who still has to earn the trust of the coaches, in the 3^rd round is not advisable. With so much talent to be had, the best plan is to sit back and let the draft – and hopefully some values – come to you.

Remember the outstanding depth at WR – Again, I focus on depth, and this time it’s the WRs. It’s a deep group this year, so while you might be feeling slick taking three stud wideouts in the first 4-5 rounds, you might feel like a fool when there are still some really nice WRs available in the 6^th and 7^th, and you’re looking at Vick Ballard as your #2 RB. Calvin Johnson is in a class by himself and is comparable to most RBs, but otherwise there are plenty of strong options – roughly 40 of them this year plus sleepers – so it’s not a position one needs to be overinvested in.

Durability is more important than ever – I believe there are more viable fantasy options at the skill positions in 2013 than ever before. That might mean you’ll be able to overcome a key injury or two, but more likely it means you took an unnecessary risk by selecting Darren McFadden in the 3^rd round when you could have had a reliable stud in Demaryius Thomas instead. With more desirable options to choose from than usual, players with serious durability issues have to be downgraded, plain and simple.

Strength of schedule isn’t as critical as it used to be – Each year I do a very extensive SOS analysis and 2012’s wasn’t nearly as accurate as it’s been in years past. This is likely due to the decrease in shut-down defenses in the league, but also a slight decrease in “get-well” defenses that are easy matchups. There is more “sameness” when it comes to NFL defenses these days, so it’s harder than usual right now to handicap a team’s schedule. In short, strength of schedule is still a factor to consider, but it’s only one of many factors and shouldn’t be given too much weight.

Handcuffing your studs isn’t as practical as it used to be – For one, due to the great depth at RB and WR, you might be passing on a productive player in favor of a guy who’s a backup for a reason (he’s not starter material). Furthermore, it’s just harder than ever to find a must-have handcuff. The top one last year was Ben Tate, and he was being selected as high as the top-75 in drafts in 2012. He ended up being completely worthless. At this point, handcuffing your studs appears to be more of an unneeded luxury than a necessity.

Forget about drafting a defense until one of the final rounds – At this juncture, most fantasy players know the defenses have been an absolute farce and have been impossible to handicap on a year-to-year basis, so this tip isn’t very profound. But just in case you’re tempted to grab the Bear D a few rounds from the end of your draft based on last year, give it up. You certainly do want to get one of the more appealing options with one of your final picks, but let’s not forget that more than half of last year’s top-12 finishers at DT were Waiver Wire pickups, so you’re more likely to fetch a solid unit off the scrap heap than you are to draft one.
Prepare for an active Waiver Wire – And finally, with all this great depth at most key positions, we should prepare for a WW that is very fruitful in 2013. There are many jobs and roles up for grabs in training camps this year, but most likely a lot of those situations will still be fairly fluid come Week One, so fantasy owners will probably leave a lot of viable options undrafted this year. That’s also true simply because there are more viable options than usual. So in the final rounds of your draft, you should be able to focus a little more on upside potential and not worry too much about drafting a player who’ll be an obvious cut after a couple of weeks. In fact, you might prefer having a player or two to release with no worries because appealing options will be emerging on the wire.

12-team Non-PPR mock draft review

John Hansen — Thu, 09 May 2013 20:52:51 +0000

In about a month, I will be whipping up my initial and early Draft Plan, which will simply cover all the positions and how to approach them. In the summer, I’ll tweak that and quadruple the size of the article, as I always do in the summer. That will cover a plan of action by position, go pick-by-pick through the first 10 rounds, and much more.

But in order to formulate my Draft Plan, I have to actually draft, and I have been doing that this month. Today I did my second mock draft for a magazine, this one for USA Today’s fantasy magazine. I can’t share all the results, but I can share my picks and some general thoughts.

As you may recall, I thought last year a good way to zig when everyone zagged in a draft was to, as I put it, “kick it old school” and go RB-RB. That actually might have been bad advice, thanks to some RB injuries/poor play from namely Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray. But I always try to be ahead of the curve, and it appears I was because going old school looks like a great way to go this year, since QB and WR are so deep. RB is pretty deep, too, but the quality falls off considerably after the top-15 or so RBs.

So knowing that I had to try my best to hold off on QB at least a little and focus on RB if at all possible, this draft went pretty well for me. Here’s a quick review:

Round 1

4. Fantasy Guru – Doug Martin RB, TAM

Young back who proved a lot last year and is not sharing the ball, plus his OL should be much better with those two starting guards back. So I obviously liked the pick.

Round 2

9. Fantasy Guru – Dez Bryant WR, DAL

Little risky taking him over a Demaryius Thomas and a Larry Fitzgerald, but I’m usually all about juice and upside.

Round 3

4. Fantasy Guru – Stevan Ridley RB, NWE

I have to have two high-end RBs, and Ridley was top-10 in a non-PPR last year. He’s a borderline stud, so I’m not worried about Leg Blount at all, because Blount stinks.

Round 4

9. Fantasy Guru – Dwayne Bowe WR, KAN

Not a sexy pick, but Bowe is rock solid and will get much better QB play this year, plus Andt Reid certainly helps.

Round 5

4. Fantasy Guru – Colin Kaepernick QB, SFO

I was at this playoff game and saw first-hand how deadly Colin Kaepernick can be.

I couldn’t hold out any longer on a QB and got my guy Kaepernick. This was a very good spot for him and I got the best of both worlds holding off a little, but still getting someone with top-3 potential

Round 6

9. Fantasy Guru – Vick Ballard RB, IND

Another non-sexy pick, but Ballard should be reliable as the main guy in what should be a good offense. I had to get some stability there for my third RB spot and he was the final stable option available.

Round 7

4. Fantasy Guru – Greg Jennings WR, MIN

I considered Danario Alexander here, but that knee still scares me. Jennings should be fine as the clear #1 WR here. If Christian Ponder flops, they at least have Matt Cassel, who threw 15 TD passes to Bowe a few years ago.

Round 8

9. Fantasy Guru – Kyle Rudolph TE, MIN

In a non-PPR, I feel okay about Rudolph and have to think he will have more consistency this year – or at least fewer goose eggs. He did score 9 TDs last year.

Round 9

4. Fantasy Guru – Danario Alexander WR, SDG

Whenever someone is available two rounds after you seriously considered him, you take him.

Round 10

9. Fantasy Guru – Justin Blackmon WR, JAC

Starting to get a little lazy, but Blackmon is going to get the ball when he returns and he knows one more strike and he’s out. Worthy gamble this late as my 5^th WR.

Round 11

4. Fantasy Guru – Ahmad Bradshaw RB, NYG

Not a bad sneaky option for some RB depth. He’s going to play somewhere, that’s for sure.

Round 12

9. Fantasy Guru – Johnathan Franklin RB, GNB

I was still looking for RB depth, and some upside, so he made sense.

Round 13

4. Fantasy Guru – Green Bay Packers Def/ST, GNB

I actually thought the draft was 14 rounds (long story), so I took a DT. Believe it or not, there was already a little run on defenses. Green Bay is usually decent.

Round 14

9. Fantasy Guru – Phil Dawson K, SFO

Again, I thought this was my last pick, and I was glad to get a guy who could easily boot 35 FGs in this great situation. In fact, at his 2012 clip and if he was on the 49ers, he would have approached 50 FGs in 2012 if you can believe that.

Round 15

4. Fantasy Guru – Mike Gillislee, RB, Mia

Now that I see I have two more picks, I’m all about upside. In Miami, this rookie might actually have to only beat out a guy who has 50 career carries in Lamar Miller, so he’s worth a look.

Round 16

9. Fantasy Guru – Michael Floyd, WR, ARI

Not a bad depth pick in the final round, since he’s a 1^st round talent whose QB situation just got a lot better.

Starting lineup:
QB – Kaepernick, Colin QB (SFO 9)
RB – Martin, Doug RB (TAM 5)
RB – Ridley, Stevan RB (NWE 10)
WR – Bryant, Dez WR (DAL 11)
WR – Bowe, Dwayne WR (KAN 10)
TE – Rudolph, Kyle TE (MIN 5)
K – Dawson, Phil K (SFO 9)
D/ST – Packers, Green Bay D/ST (GNB 4)
Flex – Ballard, Vick RB (IND 8)

Bench
Jennings, Greg WR (MIN 5)
Alexander, Danario WR (SDG 8)
Blackmon, Justin WR (JAC 9)
Bradshaw, Ahmad RB (NYG 9)
Franklin, Johnathan RB (GNB 4)
Mike Gillislee, RB, Mia
Michael Floyd, WR, ARI

I wasn’t watching this mock draft like a hawk, but overall I felt this was a good draft and that my team includes a lot of young players who are proven and in good situations. It’s not a completely accurate look at how I would draft in real life because I have no backup QB or TE, but it’s a good exercise. 1-2 more of these and I should be ready to formulate my initial 2013 Draft Plan.

Very, very, very, early rookie keeper rankings

John Hansen — Sun, 28 Apr 2013 19:23:13 +0000

5/1 Edit: I have made a few small but key changes to the early rankings, as expected, so I’ve removed them in case someone stops by here and thinks these are the latest and (at least for now) final rankings. You can find our updated keeper rankings, including all the rookies, here:

http://www.fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/ftdb.php?page=keepers&position=QB&print=N

Quick thoughts on the 2013 schedule

John Hansen — Fri, 19 Apr 2013 21:43:18 +0000

There have been years in the recent past when our SOS analysis has been really strong and looking at strength of schedule has been very useful for fantasy purposes. This is always an element to inspect closely, but I have to say that looking back at least year’s coverage, the impact of SOS in 2012 was negligible. I’d say in terms of accuracy that it leaned to the positive, but overall the schedule’s impact was minor last year.

But certainly, inspecting each team’s schedule is something that absolutely has to be done, especially the key playoff weeks, when 1-2 good or bad matchups can mean the difference between merely making the fantasy playoffs and winning it all.

As we always do, we project the upcoming season’s SOS by assigning a number grade for each defense against the run and the pass. We then compare those grades for all 32 teams’ 16 matchups and attempt to predict SOS rather than go strictly off of 2012’s numbers.

We’ll do that after the draft, when we can properly grade each defense against the run and the pass, but for now here are some quick thoughts on the 2013 schedule.

Arizona – Their SOS will be tougher simply due to their four games against SF/Sea so it won’t rank high, but otherwise there are a number of favorable matchups, especially against the pass, which could be good news for Carson Palmer and their receivers.
Weeks 13-16: A mixed bag against Phi, Stl, Ten, and SF.

Atlanta – The Falcons have had a good schedule the last couple of years, but it will check in as one of the hardest this year, most likely due to four tough matchups. The good news is I see eight good matchups for the pass, so Matt Ryan should be helped by the schedule (and his division).
Weeks 13-16: Pretty solid against Buf, GB, Was, and SF

Baltimore – Their schedule won’t rank as being particularly favorable, but it doesn’t look particularly prohibitive and looks more favorable against the pass than not.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty good against Pit, Min, Det, and NE

Buffalo – The schedule looked tough for the Bills last year, but it definitely looks better this year and should rank in the top 50% for both the run and the pass. That should help, since they need assistance in their first year in a new system and with a new coaching staff.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty darn good against Atl, TB, Jac, and Mia

Carolina – They have four tough matchups against the run and zero favorable ones (as of now), but it does look better against the pass. I see Cam Newton as going up against eight weak pass defenses this year, which could definitely help.
Weeks 13-16: Overall, pretty good against TB, NO, NYJ, and NO

Chicago – The Bear schedule looks very favorable overall. They have only one tough matchup against the run (Pit) and that might not be as tough as it’s been. They also have what I view as seven favorable matchups against the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Nothing scary against Min, Dal, Cle, and Phi

Cincinnati – The Bengal schedule looks unusually easy this year, thanks to some hits the Steelers and Ravens have taken on defense (although Balt could still be very good). They rank in the top 50% against the run and pass.
Weeks 13-16: It could be particularly good against the pass versus SD, Ind, Pit, and Min

Cleveland – The Brown schedule also looks easier than usual with only one tougher matchup against the run (Pit, but they also get Pit again Week 17) and one against the pass (NYJ Week 16). But that matchup will look better if CB Revis is no longer a Jet.
Weeks 13-16: About average against Jac, NE, Chi, and NYJ

Dallas – I actually do not see a single tough matchup for them against the run or the pass, so that’s good news for their players. It’s especially good for the passing game, as I see nine favorable matchups for Tony Romo.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty darn good against Oak, Chi, GB, and Was

Denver – Thanks to their weaker division and some luck, the Bronco schedule looks fantastic. I don’t see a tough matchup on the schedule for run or pass, and I see Peyton Manning with a whopping 10 favorable matchups.
Weeks 13-16: It’s good overall against KC, Ten, SD, and Hou

Detroit – Nothing particularly scary here, but it is a little tougher against the run than the pass due to a couple of tough matchups against the run.
Weeks 13-16: Average or even slightly above average against GB, Phi, Bal, and NYG

Green Bay – They have two tough matchups against the run, but otherwise the schedule looks pretty good and it’s a little easier overall against the pass. In other words, the schedule looks negligible.
Weeks 13-16: Nothing concerning against Det, Atl, Dal, and Pit

Houston – The Texans usually have a good schedule in recent years, and 2013 is no exception. It’s particularly favorable against the pass, which will help because they need all the support they can get throwing the ball.
Weeks 13-16: Well above average against NE, Jac, Ind, and Den

Indianapolis – The Colts will likely come in below average against the run and the pass when we do our numbers, but overall their schedule doesn’t look very prohibitive. It’s going to be skewed a bit due to matchups against SF and Sea.
Weeks 13-16: About middle-of-the-road against Ten, Cin, Hou, and KC

Jacksonville – Their schedule is probably below-average against the run and the pass, but overall it doesn’t look too bad. We’ll have a better idea about their opponents after the draft, of course.
Weeks 13-16: Looks pretty good against Cle, Hou, Buf, and Ten

Kansas City – They have several matchups in the NFC East that could be tougher, but given the 2012 state of the Eagle, Giant, and Redskin defense, it does look very good for the run and the pass – and playing the Raiders twice a year doesn’t hurt.
Weeks 13-16: Nothing scary at all overall against Den, Was, Oak, and In

Miami – There are definitely some problem areas, but the schedule looks at worst above average against the run and the pass. It looks particularly favorable against the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Pretty decent against NYJ, Pit, NE, and Buf

Minnesota – Playing against Pit, Bal, and Sea doesn’t help and knocks them down in the bottom half against the run and the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Not that great against Chi, Bal, Phi, and Cin

New England – They have had some great schedules in the past, but this year’s looks below average, thanks to several matchups against top-10 NFL defenses. It looks little harder for the run than the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Not that great on paper against Hou, Cle, Mia, and Bal

New Orleans – They will likely rank low against the run and the pass due to a certain few matchups, but overall things don’t look overly prohibitive.
Weeks 13-16: About average against Sea, Car, Stl, and Car

NY Giants – Playing the AFC West and in a weaker (for now) NFC East should mean the Giants will land in the top-10 in terms of ease of schedule against the run and the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Not bad at all against Was, SD, Sea, and Det

NY Jets – Their schedule looks average or even a little worse against the run, but it’s one of the easiest schedules against the pass I can recall in recent years. Of course, that’s kind of a moot point for this team.
Weeks 13-16: Very favorable against Mia, Oak, Car, and Cle

Oakland – They will likely land around the middle of the pack in our projected 2013 SOS, but other than a couple of problematic matchups, the schedule looks pretty good for the Raiders, especially against the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Nothing scary against Dal, NYJ, KC, and SD

Philadelphia – Playing in a shakier NFC East and against the AFC West helps, and overall the Eagle schedule looks favorable against the run and especially the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Favorable overall against Ari, Det, Min, and Chi

Pittsburgh – The Steelers usually have a very favorable schedule, and that should be the case this year, especially if they can avoid Darrelle Revis playing for the Jets this year.
Weeks 13-16: Not wonderful against Bal, Mia, Cin, and GB but nothing to panic about

San Diego – The Chargers haven’t finished high in the standings for a while and playing in a weaker division, so their schedule has been pretty good the last few years. That is definitely the case this year, and they should wind up in our top-12 against the run and the pass this year.
Weeks 13-16: Could possibly be a little tough against Cin, NYG, Den, and Oak

San Francisco – It looks like they will be middle-of-the-pack or worse against the run and the pass, with the run matchups looking a little tougher.
Weeks 13-16: Not too bad against Stl, Sea, TB, and Atl

Seattle – It looks pretty tough against the run (SF twice doesn’t help) and below average against the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Could be below-average overall against NO, SF, NYG, and Ari

St. Louis – The Rams had a really tough schedule last year, thanks mainly to their division, and they are certainly looking at a tough schedule on paper this year. It’s a little tougher against the run and could wind up being the hardest run schedule in the league.
Weeks 13-16: Probably leans to the tougher side against SF, Ari, NO, and TB

Tampa Bay – It’s about average against the run and could be a little easier and overall favorable against the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Probably below-average against Car, Buf, SF, and Stl

Tennessee – Despite playing four games against the Colts and Jags, the Titans had a tougher schedule in 2012, and it looks like they do again. It looks a little tougher against the pass.
Weeks 13-16: Not too bad against Ind, Den, Ar, and Jac

Washington – Overall, the Redskins schedule looks above average, and it looks easier against the pass than the run.
Weeks 13-16: Nothing too scary against NYG, KC, Atl, and Dal

For Fitzgerald, the cavalry has arrived

John Hansen — Fri, 05 Apr 2013 18:26:09 +0000

It is amazing how quickly fantasy fortunes can change for those in keeper or dynasty leagues. Just a few days ago, those who owned wideout Larry Fitzgerald really did not know what they had in the future Hall of Famer, which was a sad statement because he is still in his prime and is, you know, a future Hall of Famer.

I’m not saying his new QB Carson Palmer is unquestionably a savior, but Palmer landing in Arizona is pretty news for this offense. Yes, the OL is a major concern, but let’s keep in mind it was pretty bad in Oakland, too, and Palmer managed to throw for over 4000 yards with a lesser receiving corps and a crappy running game.

I particularly like the fit with Bruce Arians, who is as proven an offensive coordinator as there is in the league. Arians has had particular success with big, strong-armed QBs like Palmer in Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck. Palmer doesn’t move as well as those two, but he’s not a total statue in the pocket, either. And I LOVED what Arians did last year with Reggie Wayne, particularly how he moved him around to find good matchups. I said on the radio last summer that Wayne could catch 100 balls, but I was still a little surprised that he actually did it (106). Luck was obviously quite good, but Wayne in 2012 was brilliant with Arians pulling the strings, and there’s reason to believe Fitzgerald can quickly turn his shaky fantasy status around with Arians and Palmer in the fold. I also think it’s a case of addition by subtraction with Ken Whisenhunt out of Arizona. He’s a good coach who got them to the Super Bowl, but let’s be honest: Whisenhunt is not exactly known as a creative or particularly effective offensive guy, and it was Kurt Warner and OC Todd Haley who should have been given the most credit for the team’s success early in Wiz’s career in the desert.

If you’re a Larry Fitzgerald owner, you’re feeling a lot better about your guy this week

You can certainly make some pretty strong arguments against Palmer this year, but you can say that about roughly two-thirds of the players drafted in fantasy football. Overall, Palmer’s numbers were merely solid last year, but for fantasy purposes, I usually look at completion percentage and yards per attempt, and Palmer’s in 2012 (61.1 and 7.1, respectively) were, again, solid. Palmer back in 2010 looked like a player who might be slipping quickly, but I felt he has thrown the ball well the last two years; it’s come out of his hand well and with good velocity. He has fallen into the trap of trying to do too much, which tends to lead to some bad decisions, but that might not be a huge problem with a stud like Fitzgerald and a great offensive coach like Arians supporting him.

The Raider receiving corps last year, while talented on paper, was shaky. Denarius Moore is a player I like a lot, and we’ve pushed him pretty hard, but he lost his way last year. Clearly, he was not on the same page as Palmer, and most disconcerting was how that was case as the season wore on. I don’t know the real story there, but Palmer has been a big Moore supporter, so I have to assume most of the blame should go to the young wideout, and not the veteran QB. Again, I know the OL is a problem, but if they can give him a semblance of protection (keep in mind former #1 pick Levi Brown will be back this year at LT, and he missed all of 2012), there is really nice potential with this passing game, much like there was in Indy last year with Arians running the offense. It could very well be a complete passing game with last year’s #1 pick Michael Floyd – who Arians told me at the combine he thinks is a rising star – and Andre Roberts. This looks perfect because Roberts is probably best cast as a slot receiver, yet his versatility and production last year (64/759/5) was excellent, considering the circumstances. And the icing on the cake could be TE Rob Housler. We’ve pushed Housler pretty hard the last two years as a great sleeper candidate, almost entirely because of his high-end speed and athleticism. He caught a sneaky 45 passes last year, but his YPC average of 9.3 was bad (he tied fossil Dallas Clark and was around 45^th at the position among all TEs with 20 or more grabs last year). He also has yet to score a TD in the NFL. That’s disconcerting, but I specifically remember Kevin Kolb missing him running wide-ass open down the seam for two potential scores in 2011, and I’m pretty sure Kolb (or someone else) missed him on one in 2012. Granted, a lot of Palmer’s production with TE Brandon Myers last year was in garbage time, but Palmer is clearly a big upgrade at QB, and in his “magical” third season, Housler could be poised for a coming out party. The Cardinal defense is top-12 in the league, so Palmer might not pad his stats with GTP this year, but let’s not forget that Arians loves to throw the ball. This guy’s never seen a passing play he didn’t like. I can still see Palmer throwing it about 550 times this year, and I see his completion percentage sticking in the 61-62% range, with 63-64 a possibility. Palmer back in 2011 actually averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, so I can see him bumping his 2012 number of 7.1 up to about 7.5, which would give him 4,125 yards. New RB Rashard Mendenhall isn’t a great goal line back, so when they are in tight, I can see them looking to throw plenty, so 25 TDs should be attainable for Palmer, and there’s upside if – all goes perfectly well for him – to hit 30 in this passing league. 25 TDs with that yardage would give Palmer about 310-315 fantasy points (I’m giving him 10 points for rushing, and he has scored 1 TD on the ground the last two years). Back in 2005, that would have netted Palmer a top-3 finish at QB, but things have changed considerably in the NFL and in fantasy. These days, around 300 points is usually a top-12-14 finish, which is around where he finished in 2012.

But unlike 2011 and 2012 in Oakland, there’s upside for more in Arizona with what could be a surprisingly-strong receiving corps. The backfield isn’t exactly set, but there’s talent here for sure with Mendenhall and Ryan Williams on the roster, and William Powell showed some promise last year as a changeup and potential 3^rd down back (he had a 6-catch game last year). Palmer won’t command a lot of respect in fantasy drafts, so he should be a nice choice as a backup due to value and potential. As for Fitzgerald, he’s obviously back in the conversation as a top-5 wideout. Although the Cards have other options, he’s still one of the few true #1 WRs – a guy Arians will gameplan to get the ball to a TON, and he will do so EVERY WEEK.

Again, it’s easy to find warts with almost any player who’ll be taken outside of the top-25 in a typical fantasy draft. Palmer will be 34 in December, the shabby OL is a problem, and this is a very tough division, one with three good secondaries. But when I add up and compare the positives and negatives, I really like Palmer in Arizona, and with Arians. The cavalry has arrived finally for Fitzgerald, and with a true pro at QB who can actually play, we should see significant development from their young receivers, specifically Floyd and Housler.

Projected 2013 rankings:

Carson Palmer – 13-15 at QB
Larry Fitzgerald – 6-10 at WR
Michael Floyd – 45-50 at WR
Rob Housler – 20-25 at TE

Vikings had to trade Percy Harvin

John Hansen — Mon, 11 Mar 2013 21:54:42 +0000

This past Friday night, I hosted a special off-season addition of SiriusXM Fantasy Football, and my FB question of the night asked if the Vikings should try to stick with Percy Harvin or go another route with a marquee free agent receiver like Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings. Of course, most people said “both,” but that was not an option given to readers/listeners because I didn’t see Minnesota retaining Harvin and signing a top free agent at his position as being possible.

And apparently, it wasn’t an option for the Vikings, who will (as soon as tomorrow) officially trade Harvin to Seattle for the 25^th overall pick in this year’s draft plus a 7^th-round selection this year and a mid-round pick in 2014.

Percy Harvin is a flat-out stud, but the Vikings had to move him now

We all know Harvin is a unique and versatile athlete who can produce for a team in three ways: as a receiver, a runner, and a return man. The running is the least important element to his game, but the former high school tailback is certainly capable of helping an offense by rushing the ball. He’s a stud; we all know this. But he’s also been a pain in the ass for the Vikings who, keep in mind, took a bit of a chance on him with the 22^nd overall pick of the 2009 draft. Harvin played well for Minnesota, but ultimately he did little to pay back the franchise for believing in him when some NFL teams were scared away due to his maturity issues. It’s rare we see a team give up on a young and elite talent like Harvin, but I don’t think the Vikings had a choice.

Asking how Harvin can help the Seahawk offense is like asking what kind of scoring system one can implement in his or her fantasy football league; the main limitation is ones imagination. Obviously, he’s a dynamic (and vertical) threat inside, so he’s primarily a slot receiver. But he can also certainly line up and make plays (and vertical plays) outside. There is definitely some familiarity here, since Harvin played under Seahawk OC Darrell Bevell for two seasons from 2009-2010.

Although he had missed only three games in three years going into 2012 (he missed 7 games this past year), Harvin’s availability had been in doubt from time-to-time over the years with the Vikings. Fortunately for Harvin, the situation with his migraines seems to have improved considerably. You would think that once he signs his new contract with the Seahawks, Harvin will be able to focus only on football, and if so Seattle’s offense just got a whole lot better. Even if Harvin still has some issues on and off the field, it’s impossible to be critical of Seattle for acquiring such a difference maker. Harvin’s versatility will work extremely well with QB Russell Wilson’s game, which includes the read-option. Harvin will make defending this offense – Wilson and the running game with Marshawn Lynch – a lot harder, so the move is at least good news for Wilson’s fantasy value. If there was still doubt as to whether or not Wilson was a viable fantasy starter in a 12-team league, that doubt should be gone now. Clearly, despite his lack of ideal height, Wilson will be able to get Harvin the ball all over the field due to his movement and ability to see the whole field. I’d have to also believe the presence of Harvin will help Lynch as well. The only real issue I have with this move is that I’m not sure there’s an active enough role now for all their other weapons. Harvin has played with veteran Sidney Rice, and with Rice being a tall receiver who can stretch the field from the outside, it’s a good pairing. But I don’t see much left over for guys like Doug Baldwin (who could be traded) and Golden Tate, and we might have to forget about the playoff emergence of TE Zach Miller, who finally came on late in 2012 and was the team’s leading receiver in both playoff games this past season. Miller is a volume type of player at the TE position, but it’s hard to envision a huge role for him every week with Harvin around. Still, it’s not like anyone’s fantasy fortunes are going to be tied to Baldwin, Tate, or Miller.

Harvin will also help Seattle’s fantasy defense, since he’s a deadly return man and should be a good bet to take 1-2 kicks back for scores every year.

As for Harvin’s fantasy value, I think it’s fair to keep expectations at least a little tempered. He is moving on to a new team, but most importantly he’s on a team that attempted the fewest passes in the league in 2012. Yes, they were breaking in a new rookie QB, but they were only 22^nd in pass attempts the year before. This has been Marshawn Lynch’s offense, and he will continue to handle a large workload. Harvin had a similar situation with the Vikings and Adrian Peterson, but Minnesota had literally nothing other than Harvin. In Seattle, they do have some other solid players on offense. This is also a team that has a darn good defense, and I don’t see them pushing the envelope too much by throwing the ball all over the field if they are holding a lead in the second half of their games. Again, I can’t really be too critical of such a dangerous player, but between his new environment, his previous issues on and off the field, and the run-heavy approach we’ve seen in Seattle the last two years, I’d prefer to consider Harvin as a #2 fantasy wideout in 2013. Calling Harvin a top-10 or top-12 fantasy WR, even in a PPR, seems to be pushing it, at least for this year.

Obviously, this move makes the Vikings major players in the wide receiver market both in free agency and in the draft. I can see them using significant resources for a wideout for both. For example, I can see them signing either Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings and also using one of their two #1 picks on a wideout. They do have 2012 rookie Jarius Wright, whose emergence I’m sure helped the team make the decision to move Harvin, at least a tiny bit. Wright is no Harvin, but he’s a natural slot receiver whose value is about to rise because he should replace Harvin in several ways, mainly as their top inside receiver (but we’ll see who else they bring in). Losing Harvin is a shame for QB Christian Ponder, who clicked well with Harvin this year, but this move had to be done, and the Vikings deserve credit for getting so much for a player who was likely gone after 2013, anyway (and Harvin in Minnesota in 2013 could have been ugly). Ponder wasn’t going to be a hot fantasy pick with Harvin, so it’s not really worth delving into the ramifications for Ponder, or for that matter, Peterson.

Alex Smith an upgrade for Chiefs, but hardly a slam dunk

John Hansen — Wed, 27 Feb 2013 18:50:21 +0000

With the news coming down today that the Chiefs have agreed to a deal to acquire QB Alex Smith from the 49ers, and confirmed by two reporters who seemingly never get a story wrong (Adam Schefter and Jay Glazer), I thought this would make for a good first blog post of the 2013 season, even though the deal won’t be official for about two weeks, when the league year officially begins on March 12^th.

New head coach Andy Reid is high on Smith, and I get it – to a point. Reid certainly knows a lot more about football than I do, but a Smith-Reid marriage does seem a little odd.

Alex Smith is an upgrade for the Chiefs at QB, but he doesn’t exactly appear to be an Andy Reid QB

Let me first focus on the positives with Smith. Clearly, he’s a “professional” QB, and a guy a team can win with if the pieces around him are in place. He’s shown he can play well in big games. He’s mobile and fairly athletic, very efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over, and he has experience in the west coast offense. He’s a veteran, a good leader, he’s tough, he’s a gamer, etc.

The Chiefs reportedly gave up the 34^th overall pick in the 2013 draft for Smith, plus a later pick (possibly a conditional pick). That seems high to me, since I do see a potential identity crisis with this pairing. We all know that Reid loves the forward pass, yet Smith is a guy who’s at his best when he’s being limited in an offense. Back in 2011, by far his best season, Smith for example averaged only 27.8 pass attempts per game, which was the second-lowest number for QBs who played every week that year. Smith isn’t a game-manager per se (whatever that is), but he’s at his best when he’s in an offense that focusses on the running game. San Fran was perfect for him in ’11 because of their extremely active running game but also their great defense. The Chiefs do have some promising players on defense, but unless Reid’s offense is going to undergo a seismic shift, asking Smith to drop back 35+ times per game seems like a shaky proposition. In 2012, Reid’s offense averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game, and that seems high for Smith. Smith’s arm isn’t very strong, and while he’s made some nice throws for the 49ers under Jim Harbaugh, a lot of them came on designed big plays against defenses that were more so gearing up to stop the run. He’s also in the past been considered a bit of a slow-blinker, and if you’re going to throw the ball 35+ times a game, a QB must have a great clock in his head and be able to process information quickly. Smith has improved in this area, but I’m not sure he’s a great fit for a pass-happy system.

The other element that seems odd here is how we know Reid loves the deep ball, and Smith clearly has a mediocre arm. Now, I’ve always felt that Reid adapted his offense to the strengths (and weaknesses) of his QBs, namely Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, by implementing more of a deep ball passing game. Smith should be a good fit in a traditional WCO, but I do still think Reid loves the deep ball, and I don’t see Smith have a lot of success throwing the ball 30-40+ yards down the field. In fact, I can count on one hand the number of Smith completions in 2011 that traveled more than 35 yards in the air.

The conservative nature of the 2011 49er offense is shown by Smith’s ultra-low INT rate (1.1%, best in the league) and high sack rate (9.0%, worst among the QBs who played every game). Clearly, he was coached to minimize turnovers and eat the ball if necessary – the sack rate was his worst since his rookie year and his INT rate was a career best. That really doesn’t seem like a Reid QB. He also in 2011 registered a career best in completion percentage, 61.4%, and YPA 7.1, which were nothing special. Typically, Reid QBs are at about 8.0 yards per attempt, and I really don’t see Smith in that territory.

So again, I understand the move to upgrade the QB position, and Smith definitely represents one over the sluggish Matt Cassel, who will likely get cut. But you’ll have to excuse me for not getting too excited. Also, other than 2011, let’s be honest: Smith’s body of work in the NFL has been shaky.

However, I am excited for Jamaal Charles. I actually had a chance to ask Reid about Charles and how he fits into his offense at the combine last week. Reid gave a fairly generic answer and basically said Charles can fit into any system. But the look on his face clearly told me that he feels very fortunate to have the electrifying Charles on his side and that he’s going to give him the ball and let him loose. The acquisition of Smith clearly helps that cause and improves Charles’ value. With the efficient Smith at the helm, the coaches should not only be more consistently committed to the running game, but they should be able to run off more plays, since Smith rarely turns the ball over.

We’ll see about the UFA Dwayne Bowe, but this could also help in terms of his return. Reid was high on him when he came out of LSU six years ago, and Bowe could feel more inclined to stick with Reid in town and a QB upgrade in place in Smith. Also, with KC acquiring Smith it definitely means that QB Geno Smith is off the board for KC with the 1^st overall pick. I would be shocked if Smith made it past Oak, Cle, Ari, and Buf, so Smith should still be a top-8 pick, so it’s not a tragedy for him. And finally, this move doesn’t help Nick Foles’ future fortunes. Another team could step in and trade for Foles, but Foles doesn’t appear to be a major player in Chip Kelly’s future plans, and the thought was that Reid could look to acquire him.

So to summarize the implications of Alex Smith the Chiefs, here’s a quick fantasy stock watch for their key players, including Smith:

Alex Smith – Upgrade, but still a lower-end backup
Matt Cassel – Downgrade; you can cut him now in your keeper league
Jamaal Charles – Definite upgrade
Dwayne Bowe – TBD, but slight upgrade if he sticks in KC
Tony Moeaki – Holding steady at worst
Jonathan Baldwin – Holding steady at worst

Just missed it: Week Ten

John Hansen — Thu, 15 Nov 2012 22:26:39 +0000

Here are more close calls for big plays and TDs from Week Ten. Again, I think this stuff is valuable if you are not able to watch the games because almost scoring or making a big play is a lot better than not even coming close to doing so. As always, these are fairly random in order and not exactly crafted like a wordsmith would. This is merely an FYI.

QB Tom Brady had WR Wes Welker for a sure TD, but Welker dropped it running toward the endzone.
Pass to Patriot TE Rob Gronkowski in the endzone, and PI on the defense was called on the play.
Pass to WR Brandon Lloyd in the endzone, but it was broken up. Later, he had a pass thrown to him deep in the endzone, and defensive PI was called.
Pass to Torrey Smith in the endzone, could have had it, but incomplete. Later, he had another ball thrown to him in the endzone that was very close to a score, but it was incomplete. He did eventually score 2 TDs.
Pass to TE Brandon Myers in the endzone; he was wide open for the TD but it was too high and offensive PI was called on the play, anyway.
Pass to Tony Gonzalez in the endzone, but Gonzo unable to haul it in. He obviously scored 2 TDs in the game.
WR Andrew Hawkins just missed a second TD on endzone catch, but he caught the ball out of bounds.
TE Martellus Bennett caught a pass in the endzone, but he didn’t get both feel in for the score.
Pass to WR Steve Johnson in the endzone just before the half, but it was incomplete. He later had two passes in the endzone on a drive, one pass he caught but he was out of bounds, but it was very close to a TD.
Giant WR Victor Cruz dropped a sure TD running into the endzone.
RB C.J. Spiller just missed a TD on a play in which he stepped out inside the five streaking into the endzone.
RB Michael Turner got stuffed late in the game on carry right on top of the goal.
Pass to WR Deion Branch in the endzone late, but it was incomplete.
TE Scott Chandler almost made a great one-handed catch to potentially win the game, but it was a no go.
Cowboy CB Orlando Scandrick just missed a pick-6 against QB Nick Foles. Of course, they did score two defensive TDs.
Pass down the field to WR Brandon Marshall in the endzone, was a sure TD, but he couldn’t hold on.
Deep pass to WR Mike Wallace streaking into the endzone, and he couldn’t haul it in. He did score on the drive.
WR Dwayne Bowe had a nice little TD catch that was called back for holding.
Pass to WR Emmanuel Sanders in front of the endzone, but it really didn’t have a chance.
Steeler S Ryan Clark failed to catch a sure INT that he probably would have taken to the house in the 4th quarter.
RB Jonathan Stewart had a 62-yard catch and run called back.
Pass to TE Jacob Tamme’s direction in front of the endzone, but Peyton Manning was hit as he threw it and it was incomplete.
Deep pass to Demaryius Thomas on the right side, it was a little overthrown or it might have been a long TD. Thomas later caught a long pass running to the endzone but was knocked out at the 4.
Deeper pass in the endzone to Panther WR Armanti Edwards, was incomplete.
Pass to WR Kenny Britt in the endzone, but he was double covered
Pass to WR Brian Hartline in the endzone, but good covered and broken up.
WR Donald Jones caught a pass inside the 5 and almost rolled into the endzone, but was down inside the 1. Fred Jackson scored on the drive.
RB Fred Jackson fumbled on a run inside the 1 late in the game.
Pass to WR TJ Graham in the endzone at the end of the game was picked to ice the win for the Patriots.
Deep ball to WR Denarius Moore early in the game streaking into the endzone, but incomplete and well covered.
RB Ray Rice missed a TD by about a foot early in the game on a run, and Joe Flacco snuck it in on the next play.
Pass to WR Anquan Boldin in the endzone, incomplete. They faked a FG for a TD on the next play.
Deep pass in the endzone to Raider WR Derek Hagan, but off his fingertips.
WR AJ Green just missed a jump-ball in the endzone for what would have been his second TD in the first quarter. He had another pass thrown to him in the endzone on the next play.
WR Roddy White on their first drive caught a long pass and was knocked down at the 1, pretty close to a score. He also had a goal line pass thrown to him in the endzone late in the game that was broken up. At the end of the game, Roddy has some space for game-winning TD, but he seemed to stop too soon and/or wasn’t on the same page at the QB.
Short pass to Julio Jones in the endzone in the 4^th quarter; he got his hands on it, but it was incomplete.
Pass to WR Marques Colston in the endzone was broken up; this was after his early TD.
Viking Rookie Jarius Wright came very close to scoring on a deep ball, one he caught was came down with at about the 1. He scored on that drive.

Just missed it: Week Nine

John Hansen — Thu, 08 Nov 2012 22:38:31 +0000

I may have missed a few more near TDs than usual this week, but here is what I got from Week Nine in terms of passes in the endzone, near scores, and more.

Pass to WR Dwayne Bowe running to the endzone, was incomplete. On the same drive, he was open for a TD but it didn’t happen.
Pass to TE Dante Rosario in the endzone, but it was incomplete.
WR Calvin Johnson just missed the endzone on a 38-yard catch, but he was once again down at the one. Pass to Calvin later near the endzone, but it was incomplete.
Pass to WR TY Hilton in the endzone, but it was broken up. He also had a long TD, but he couldn’t hang on to it. He did eventually score, of course.
Pass to TE Jared Cook in the endzone was caught, but he was out of bounds.
Pass to WR Kenny Britt in the endzone, incomplete, this was before he scored.
Pass to Kendall Wright in the endzone, incomplete.
QB Peyton Manning’s endzone INT was intended for Eric Decker in the endzone; looked like the throw was slightly off.
Pass to WR James Jones in the endzone after his TD, but it was incomplete.
Pass to Bengal WR Muhammad Sanu in the endzone, but it was incomplete.
Pass to Panther WR Steve Smith in the endzone, incomplete but defensive pass interference on the play.
Brown WR Josh Gordon had a TD taken off the board, and it was actually a shorter slant pass, not down the field.
WR Andre Johnson caught a pass running to the endzone, but he was brought down inside the 5 and Foster scored on the next play. He later had a nice pass thrown to him for what would have been a TD but it was overthrown, he was open.
QB Robert Griffin III had a TD run taken off the board and on the same drive he had a TD pass to Leonard Hankerson taken off the board.
WR Leonard Hankerson also had a deep pass thrown to him in the endzone, but it was incomplete.
Pass to WR Roddy White in the endzone late in the game, but it was incomplete.
Pass to Eagle WR Jeremy Maclin in the endzone late in the game, but it was too high.
WR Josh Morgan had a pass thrown to him in the endzone, but it was broken up.
WR Armanti Edwards’ 82 yard TD could have easily been a 92 YD TD, but he was caught and brought down by the 1 defender who had a prayer.
WR Steve Smith had a 40-yard bomb thrown to him in the endzone; he almost caught it, but he had a defender on him and it was incomplete.
Pass to WR Michael Floyd in the endzone, but it was too high.
RB LaRod Stephens-Howling had a carry inside the 3 late in the game, but he was stopped
QB Matt Stafford had WR Titus Young wide open in the endzone for TD in the endzone, but it was slightly overthrown
Pass to Jaguar WR Laurent Robinson in the endzone late, but it was incomplete.
Pass to TE Marcedes Lewis in endzone late, but it was too high.
Bear WR Devin Hester came very close to returning punt for TD.
CB Charles Tillman was 3-4 yards away from giving the Bears their third defensive TD against the Titans.
WR AJ Green came close to a second TD on a catch-and-run, but was down at the 3. QB Andy Dalton also had AJ Green for a possible 70-yard TD, but there was defensive holding.
Pass to WR Demaryius Thomas in the endzone, incomplete. Dreessen scored on that drive.
Pass to TE Anthony Fasano at about the 2, probably would not have scored, but it would have been close as he was open.