Quick note on our next projection tweaks

I am working on an extensive Stock Watch report for tomorrow, but for those who are drafting today, I thought I would do a quick blog post covering the key movers and shakers from this past weekend. Honestly, there aren’t a lot of big moves to be made.

Here’s a quick look at some adjustments we’ll be making:

We’ll have to add some catches to Falcon RB Michael Turner’s total, since it’s clear he will catch more passes under Dirk Koetter. Of course, I might have to take a little from his rushing, since they are struggling in that area.
I’ll give Miami RB Daniel Thomas a few more yards and bump him up a bit, but he’s still pretty low.
Dolphin WR Davone Bess is pretty high now with a good catch total, but I’ll give him a few more grabs.
I’ll bump Patriot RB Steven Ridley up a few spots, since he likely cemented his role as the primary ball carrier. I won’t go nuts because he doesn’t have a huge margin for [...]

Comparing SOS for 2nd tier RBs

Once I get past the top-3 RBs on the board, how the rest of the RBs who are going to make it into my top-20 overall stack up is somewhat up in the air. There is a lot we need to see in the preseason, and it’s mostly due to injury issues. For example, if Darren McFadden shows no sign of trouble, he’ll move up. And if Ryan Mathews shows signs of trouble, he’ll move down.

But another way to differentiate players like Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Mathews, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, and Matt Forte – who are hard to differentiate – is to look at their playoff strength of schedules. SOS can be a solid tie-breaker when you’re trying to decide between players of seemingly equal value, and playoff SOS is obviously especially important.

If you’re drafting toward the end of the first round, I think you have to take a RB with at least one of your first two picks, but deciding between these seven options isn’t easy, so looking at each of their schedules for the critical playoff weeks (13-16) might be the best way to pick the best one, preseason injury red flags or clean [...]

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John Hansen

Specializing in football, Hansen is one of the most connected fantasy writers in the country.

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