May 25, 2012
Today it was time for me to make my second pick in this startup Dynasty Draft. Already in this league the young and productive impact players without issues are dwindling down, and with a QB taken in the First Round (Cam Newton), the two young, stud TEs (Graham and Gronk) gone, and a ton of good WRs still on the board, I wanted to lock up a RB I can hang my hat on.
Of course, the RB depth falls off a cliff quickly, even in 2012 redraft leagues this year, so finding a great back even 20 or so picks in isn’t that easy these days.
My choice was down to Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson. Forte would appear to be the safer choice, based on his health, but he’s got some issues for 2012 and for the long-term. The Bears aren’t paying Michael Bush the type of money they are (four-year deal worth $14 million, including $7 million guaranteed) to just be a backup, so I would imagine he will play a lot and cut into Forte’s production. And that’s assuming Forte’s contract impasse doesn’t get very ugly with a long holdout here in 2012. Going forward, I just don’t see Forte and the Bears coming together for a long-term deal, so his value is in limbo.
Peterson just turned 27, so realistically we’re looking at 3-4 more good years. A good year for AP is a great year for most, as we know. The Viking offense also has a chance to be pretty darn good the next few years if QB Christian Ponder continues to develop and they find a legit #1 WR to go along with their intriguing TEs and Percy Harvin. It’s not like AP’s situation on the Vikings for the next few years looks bleak.
Peterson still doesn’t know if he’ll be ready for Week One, but his recovery is going very well. That fact coupled with the fact that he’s arguably one of the five best backs in the history of the league – and still in his prime – made this seemingly tough call fairly easy: Adrian Peterson had to be the pick. He would have gone in the top-5 if healthy.
If you want my gut feeling, one based on zero medical experience but plenty of years of intense NFL observation, it’s that Peterson is going to recover from this ACL well and remain an elite back. He might be a little bit more of a grinder this year as opposed to a laterally explosive beast, but if he’s on the field he’ll gain 4.0 yards a carry, and he will continue to excel and produce near the goal. The upside is that he returns to previous form no later than 2013, and then I have a top-3 fantasy back for 2-3 years.
He’s a risk, but people are already taking risks in this draft (Darren McFadden went before AP), and if I’m going to take a risk, I want to bet on one of the hardest workers and most determined individuals to ever suit up in the NFL.
You can follow the draft here.