May 24, 2012
I know people have asked for more Dynasty League content, and while I think we cover young and emerging players very well, which can obviously be applied to Dynasty, the fact is I’ve never even played in this format. So when a subscriber and MB poster randomly sent me a tweet to see if I’d be interested in joining a new Dynasty league with all FantasyGuru.com subscribers, I figured I’d give it a shot, specifically to help with our content in this area.
The first step is to cover the draft, which kicked off last night. I will continue to cover this slow draft (16 hour deadline for each pick) throughout the rest of the spring and summer, and as we move along I will cover my team, pickups, drops, etc. Hopefully, this will help me become a little more aware of the whole dynasty thing.
I drew pick 1.03 in this 12-team PPR league. All TDs are 6 points.
My pick was Cam Newton.
This was a really tough call for me because I initially wanted one of the elite RBs, and LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice were there for the taking. Calvin Johnson was a consideration. The first thing I’ve noticed about a dynasty league draft, especially a start-up one, is that Dynasty can cause paralysis by over-analysis. There are a lot of things to consider, and the more I thought about it, the more the RBs concerned me. Even worse, I couldn’t decide between Rice and McCoy. Picking this high, there are a lot of options; too many options. I would have felt better about the pick if passing TDs were 4 points, but 4000+ yards passing as a rookie and 35 TDs are what they are, and those are fantastic totals for a first-year player who didn’t even have a full off-season in his initial NFL campaign.
Here’s a quick overview of why I took Newton:
He’s extremely young – In a league driven by QBs, Newton has a chance to carry this team for over a decade while revolutionizing the position. Rice probably has 4-5 big years left, at the most, and McCoy maybe 1-2 years more than that. With McCoy, I considered the Eagle’s situation at QB. Once Michael Vick is gone, which could actually be as early as 2013 if he doesn’t play well this year, what are the Eagles going to do at QB? I have no idea, and that was something I considered. I’d be worrying about my #1 pick in the coming years if I had taken a RB or WR. With Newton, I’m probably sleeping like a baby for the next decade. In fact, by the time Newton – who was 6 years old when I started this site – starts slowing down, I may not even be in this business anymore. You have to look at the future in a dynasty league, and Newton just turned 23. You also can’t ignore the present, and Newton averaged 27.6 fantasy PPG in 2011.
He’s safe – RBs are obviously more prone to injury than most QBs, and Newton is a huge man who showed zero signs of having durability issues last year. Calvin has definitely had some injury issues, and his success is tied to a guy in Matt Stafford, who has had clear injury concerns.
He’s really good – Although Newton has done it for only one year, this isn’t a reach. This isn’t Vince Young circa 2007 or even Vick. His 14 rushing TDs were great, but he may never duplicate that. This is a player who showed elite qualities as a PASSER in his rookie season. He has a rocket for an arm and he can make all the throws, including timing/rhythm, and touch passes. There are no limitations to his passing whatsoever, and last year he wasn’t afraid to stand tall in the pocket and deliver the ball down the field to his receivers. Obviously, his rushing potential is a huge factor, but for me it starts with his passing. Between his excellent passing and his unique size and running ability, the NFL has never seen a player like Newton, which is why I think he has a chance to revolutionize the position. Hall of Famer Steve Young was a great passer and also a very good runner, but he needed years to develop and wasn’t anywhere near the threat Newton is on top of the goal, given Newton’s great size. Newton’s rookie season may have been the most impressive one in this history of the NFL.
I’m big on not screwing up ones first pick, and while it was very tempting to take a stud RB for right now and target some of the cheaper QBs I like a lot for the long-term later in the draft, I ultimately took Newton because he’s safe – and he also has massive upside. That’s really appealing. It’s actually easy at times to fill in holes at RB, whereas one can be screwed at the QB position, possibly even for multiple years in a dynasty league, so I decided to lock things down at this position for the next decade. I’ll still grab one of those young QBs I love for the long-term, too, and could wind up trading him for another position player. Newton’s supporting cast at receiver may not be fantastic, but his OL is solid and he’s a player who can make his receivers better – possibly a lot better.
Just ask Steve Smith.
So far the draft is
1.01 Rodgers, Aaron
1.02 Foster, Arian
1.03 Newton, Cam
1.04 Johnson, Calvin
1.05 Rice, Ray
1.06 McCoy, LeSean
1.07 Stafford, Matthew
1.08 Green, A.J.
1.09 Richardson, Trent
1.10 Mathews, Ryan SDC RB