12-Team Mock Draft Review

I did another mock draft last night, this one for Lindys magazine, which will be on newsstands in roughly 6-8 weeks. I cannot post the whole draft, but I can quickly review my picks with some thoughts. As usual, I lost interest toward the end and stopped crossing guys off my list, but it was a pretty solid draft, nevertheless.

This was a 12-team mock, non-PPR, 6 points for rushing/receiving TDs and 4 points for passing TDs. I had the 3rd overall pick.

1st round – I took Ray Rice over LeSean McCoy even though it’s a non-PPR and McCoy scored 20 TDs. I don’t think McCoy comes close to that number this year, whereas Rice scored 15 TDs and had more rushing and receiving yards in 2011.

2nd round – Looking for impact players, I gladly take Jimmy Graham, who I apparently reached for in the previous draft at 12 overall.

3rd round – Still looking for studs, preferably young ones, I took A.J. Green over Michael Vick, who I felt had a chance to slip to me in the 4th (missed him by one pick).

4th round – I don’t want to get pinched at QB, so I grabbed the usually reliable Tony Romo, who is very consistent when he plays. Dallas is looking pretty solid on paper this year.

5th round – I’m not in love with the pick, but it’s hard to argue with Dwayne Bowe in the 5th round of a 12-teamer. The guy was solid with the terrible Tyler Palko starting games for them last year.

Although he kind of looks like a frog in this picture, Bronco WR Eric Decker looks like a great example of a player taken in the middle rounds who goes down as a value.

6th round – Here’s where I look to steal some values and potential impact players, so I took a tiny bit of a reach with Eric Decker. It’s not a PPR, but he can be a very good red zone threat for Peyton Manning. I continue to be fascinated by the fact that seemingly every time I hear Manning talk this year, he’s saying the name “Eric Decker.”

7th round – I kind of waved the white flag in this round looking for a back I could rely on by taking BenJarvus Green-Ellis (again). He’s clearly going to be the guy unless they bring someone else in capable of pushing him for time, so he was somewhat appealing. But this pick is hardly “Gurrific.” It does help that this is a non-PPR, although I think Law Firm will catch 30-35 balls this year.

8th round – I’ve been holding off on RB in my drafts and now I’ve taken BJGE and Peyton Hillis twice. It’s a non-PPR, but Hillis could certainly be the goal line back for what should be a good offense. I know Hillis went a little crazy last year, but when he was healthy he looked good, and with a one-year deal he has every reason to play well. He should get 200 carries here and some catches. The main problem with holding off on addressing RB is you always have to take some shakier options in the middle rounds. Then again, if one of them comes through, you’re golden. And as I’ve said for years, RB is the easiest position to “fix” on the WW each year.

9th round – Looking for upside, I grab my guy Greg Little, who had his issues last year but all things considered did a solid job after being thrown into a bad situation. This is not a PPR, so his upside may not be great, but I still like him as a potential breakout guy. However, since he has a new rookie QB, a breakout may only happen, say, in the second half of the season. But he’s an ascending player, no doubt, and that’s what I look for in the later rounds.

10th round – Honestly, I’m not crossing guys off my list at this point, so I’m not keeping track as I should. But again, still looking for RBs who have a chance to help me, so I take former 1st round pick Donald Brown, who was definitely improved last year. I’m not high on him this year by any stretch, but he does have a chance. I do think the Colts will have to throw it a ton, and he’s decent in pass pro and can catch the ball.

11th round – I was ready to grab the Niner defense, but I missed them by 1 pick, so I settled for the Green Bay defense. That’s probably not a great idea, to take a defense other than SF before the last 1-2 rounds, but GB’s defense has been pretty solid the last few years, and while they weren’t a great weekly starter last year (but strong overall in terms of scoring), they will be healthier and they’ve addressed their pass rush.

12th Round – Here’s where I’m totally looking for upside, and I was surprised to scan the RB list and see David Wilson still available, so I grabbed him. If he’s ready to play and Ahmad Bradshaw has issues, this is a home run. If he’s ready to play and Bradshaw doesn’t have issues, it’s still a great pick, since Wilson should get 10 touches a game. The question is whether or not he’s truly ready to play, which no one knows. He’s a #1 pick, but if he’s not doing everything he needs to do, he won’t play.

13th round – I passed on a few solid QBs to get Jake Locker. Really, I did so to prove a point. Does anyone think a guy like Joe Flacco is going to net much in a trade? Locker’s certainly a risk, but if he’s in the starting lineup, he’ll likely produce healthy digits on this team, so he could be a great trade option. It’s not crazy to think that if Locker is starting, I might be able to trade Romo for a really nice option at another position.

14th round – I was a little surprised to see Dan Bailey still available with one of the last picks of the draft. He was arguably the best kicker in fantasy last year after David Akers. Through Week 15, he was #2 behind Akers.

Drafting in early May is ridiculous, especially this year, with a ton of situations unsettled and to be determined. But there’s no other choice in the magazine world, and this draft was for a magazine. It’s merely an exercise, and this was a decent one for me. The first three picks were fantastic, and the next three picks were rock solid, but things fell off a little after that. I did finish strong with some nice upside picks late, although the 49er defense would have been huge for this team. Still, in a 12-team league, this is a good starting lineup:

QB: Tony Romo
RB: Ray Rice
RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis
WR: A.J. Green
WR: Dwayne Bowe
WR: Eric Decker
Flex: Peyton Hillis/Greg Little
TE: Jimmy Graham
PK: Dan Bailey
DT: Green Bay

Bench
Jake Locker
Donald Brown
David Wilson

Category: Fantasy Football

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8 Responses

  1. Luke Shepherd says:

    I could see Graham dropping there in some drafts in non ppr(no way he drops that low in ppr). I think Hillis could be a decent sleeper this year. look at what Thomas Jones did along side Charles a couple years ago. I think Bowe is way undervalued going into this season also. Looks like a pretty solid draft for a 12 team league in my opinion.

  2. rob says:

    Drop jimmy pick up nicks / white =better.

  3. Crowbar718 says:

    John, I know most magazines are outdated come draft time /late August, but I like having 1 on hand for easy access thru the summer. In your experience working with them, do you have 1 that usually supplies the best projections, most accurate, & worth slapping $10 down on? Thanks

  4. PackFan says:

    A solid first pick in Rice; picking 3rd out of 12, you got a top shelf stud RB in your one chance to do so. Plus, you obeyed the old adage “don’t screw up your first pick.” Great choice in Graham at pick #22; a very good chance he would not have been there for your next pick at #27 – and, should the Saints bother to sign Brees, Jimmy should catch a lot of passes this year (especially in the red zone).

    With 26 players off the board, your 3rd pick at #27 certainly has the potential to be a stud, especially if the Bengals’ red headed QB is able to avoid the sophomore jinx. Without being able to see the draft, I’ll certainly give you the benefit of the doubt that you got the potential stud value you were looking for.

    I commend you for holding off until Round 4 to grab your QB – it had to be tempting, especially at 4 points per TD pass instead of 3 – I’m sure more than a few of your fellow drafters dipped into that pool well before you did, and at this point, you may have 1 more stud in your arsenal than they do – plus you still get a dangerous QB. I’m guessing that either one or both of the guys drafting at #1 and #2 still didn’t have a QB … so you took Romo at #46 instead of gambling he’d be here at #51. Romo has weapons, and he has the potential to have a very productive year.

    And heck, I think you got a top 5 defense in the Packers. Not only did they fill holes in the front line, LB and DB … but overall they are a very young team that, if healthy – should have a great season. I’m thinking (hoping, actually) that the lockout had a big effect on Sam Shields and other defenders last year – how else do you explain them having great rookie seasons, and mediocre sophomore stints? Plus, they get Neal back in Week 5 and Hardaway in Week 9 (after the bye, actually) – which could POTENTIALLY make the defense even stronger. Ironically, they play the 49ers at Lambeau in Week 1. Who would you rather have – Aaron Rodgers at home – or Alex Smith on the road, with a 3:15 kickoff – and all those shadows that cross the field as the sun goes down? I know I’m biased, but I’m putting my nickle on the Packer defense against Smith.

    Well, that’s it for me … the 4th round is about as deep as I go in May .. for me the rest is just watch, read and learn. Thanks for publishing these drafts – and your rationale for picking whom you did – this is very valuable food for thought. Too bad you couldn’t publish the entire draft, but that would be like skimming the cream off the top of Lindy’s mag – so that’s understandable.

  5. Luke Shepherd says:

    Dont agree on the nicks/roddy comment. Roddy was probably gone and decent chance nicks was also. And I would rather get equivalent production to those guys out of my TE spot.

  6. Ian from PA says:

    I think RB is easily the hardest position to draft this year. Each year there are more and more “Shanahan” backfields and this year is even worse. How many teams have a true #1? Five? BJGE is definately not Gurrific, but he produced for Fantasy on a “Passing” Team. I think as a number 2, you couldve done worse. The Donald Brown pick is a nice sleeper. Looked decent last year, and with a Rookie QB, Rookie Head Coach, I gotta think Brown/Running Game gets used plenty as well as in the flat.

    Just my opinion. Cant wait for the The Daily Fantasy Show to come back on SiriusXM 210!

  7. stoney curtis says:

    Guru,
    You couldn’t be more right about the manlove between Decker & Manning. Always a high fantasy indicator. D.Thomas hasn’t even practiced with Manning, and is coming off finger surgery. Decker will be a top 15 WR this year; great pick in 6th!

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