Thoughts on LT and the Jets

Once again, I am sorry for the lack of updates here. I have been going out of my mind keeping up with all the content this month. My goal is to have the site ready every day of this month for anyone who has a draft, so I want the site as up-to-date as possible because I know people are drafting throughout the month. Obviously, we can’t update everything, but this has been our best year in terms of preseason coverage, and the blog has suffered.

But again, we’re covering everything on the site on a daily basis, so everything’s on the site.

But I did want to chime in on one situation: the Jet RBs.

Yes, LaDainian Tomlinson looks REALLY good, but I feel the need to warn people about him. I love the guy, and my interview with the 25-year old LT in 2004 for our magazine is still my favorite interview of all time. However, I feel the need to point something out; just because he looks great it doesn’t mean he’s poised for a big season. Since he clearly looks like he’s 27 or 28 years old this summer, that’s proof that the last 2-3 years he’s been slowed due to injury – and that’s the problem. At his advanced age of 31, and it’s been the case since he was in his late-20s, LT clearly has serious issues with injuries. These aren’t serious injuries, but his body at this point doesn’t appear to be able to handle the rigors of daily wear and tear, and he suffers some sort of malady. So don’t be surprised if he has some issue, and if that issue once again robs him of the explosiveness he seems to have regained.

And here’s another angle. Let’s say the Jets totally recognize what I’ve outlined above and limit LT’s touches, which is exactly what they should do. That won’t likely translate to a ton of fantasy production. We’ll likely move him up a little from #45 on Monday, but that’s about right: LT should be a #4 fantasy RB. I might bump him a little in PPR, but he’s at best a low-end #3 in PPR. We have him for 38 catches as of today, and we’ll probably bump him up to the low-40s in catches. That might be a tad low, but we’re incorporating LT’s long history of injuries with that.

And here’s another factor to consider: Shonn Green’s looked just fine this summer. This guy’s a heck of a power back, and with QB Mark Sanchez continuing to struggle a little, he still needs to be the foundation of this offense. If anything, the LT hype this summer has helped increase Greene’s value, so I’m more than fine with him.

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24 Responses

  1. J.BIttner says:

    Any other news that you may have heard on MJD other than his agent saying no surgery?; I think im taking him @ 3 and if he’s hurt so be it. Draft Kicks off at 4pm.

    Which TWO of the 4 do you like better: G. Jennings, Colston, Steve Smith & Steve Smith

  2. rollback says:

    An update on any info on MJD would be greatly appreciated.

  3. Keyser soze says:

    Has it crossed your mind that LT might have been stuck in a bad situation the last year or two? Did you see the rushing numbers from other RBs not named Tomlinson on the Chargers last year? Not only could the Chargers (due to injury) absolutely NOT run block, but LT was used in such a ridiculous and predictable way that there was no way he could produce (yet he did in fantasy). predictably the experts all piled on with the “LT is done, LT is shot, LT is finished” talk… Of course he lost a step, likely two… What RB past 30 hasn’t? But he lost 2 steps from being the best RB in the league by a mile. I debated this topic last year and stand by my argument that his poor numbers last year were more connected to his ankle being rolled up on early in the season vs the Raiders (in a way that many 23 year old RB ankles get rolled up on) and the previous reasons (OL play and poor usage by Norv) than anything that had to do with LT.

    In a good situation, he still has enough juice left to be a very productive NFL RB and fantasy RB. I find it interesting watching people backtrack on their LT bashing now. Not saying you (Hansen) as much as the many other “experts” who were much more personal about it.

  4. cheese says:

    Jon – Will there be an updated draft plan today? (Aug 28) Thanks for your work

  5. Could it be LT is running behind a better O line this year ????

  6. Jeremy Rotan says:

    If I have Shonn Greene and wanted LT as a handcuff. Would you trade Malcom Floyd for LT?

  7. Jeremy Rotan says:

    An add on to my previous comment, I have good WR depth with R White,G Jennings, M Crabtree, J Knox and M Floyd

  8. JB says:

    @ Slumpbuster:

    Draft Results: Kept CJ2k and Brees from 2009:

    1) MJD # 3
    2) G. Jennings # 18
    3) Brees – Kept above
    4) Steve Smith – Car
    5) Javid Best
    6) Marion Barber
    7) Joe Flacco
    8) B. Jacobs
    9) C. Portis
    10) Donald Brown

    A little later I took Jabar Gaffney
    WR’s are stellar but solid i guess

    Chris Cooley is my T/E.
    What do you think?

  9. steely says:

    John,
    It seems last year that there were more Mock Drafts that you YOURSELF participated in. I am only seeing staff members mock drafts lately. Am I missing them?

    I liked to use them last year to get a ‘feel’ of the guys you liked. It helped me grab guys like Vincent Jackson and others who you were a bit ahead of the curve on.

  10. Joe says:

    Hey John, I’d like to get your thoughts on Dwayne Bowe now that he’s had two solid preseason games in a row. Have you considered adding him as a player to target since you already have Cassel on it?

    Was able to draft the following roster this weekend in a 14 team league – non-PPR, 6pts every TD and -2 for all turnovers. Every roster spot is on the players to target list except Bowe. Main risks were Bowe and Floyd with Maclin and Knox available each time.

    QBs – Kolb (3rd rnd – 10th QB taken), Cassel (10)
    RBs – Mathews (1st – pick 7), Mendenhall (2), B. Wells (5), Harrison (8), Hardesty (9)
    WRS – Bowe (4), Floyd (7), L. Robinson (11), L. Murphy (12)
    TE – Z. Miller (6)
    K – Gould (14)
    D – Redskins (13)

    Thoughts?

  11. jay says:

    REALLY!? A BLOG ABOUT LT WITH THE REG SEASON RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER? THANKS CAPT OBVIOUS GURU. WHO CARES ABOUT HIM. LET PPL WHO ARE STILL IN LOVE WITH THE NAME TAKE HIM.

  12. Erok says:

    No updates & no answers to anyone’s questions????

    The Guru’s head is slightly elevated right now & he is too busy rubbing elbows with Snoop Dog and Ashton Kutcher.

    By the way, I haven’t heard you touting Kevin Kolb anymore after two awful preseason games. I see we have now moved on to the new flavor of the week in Joe Flacco.

    Dont forget your roots Mr. Guru.

  13. Burton says:

    Jay, I think it is perfectly reasonable, if not down right expected, that the Guru comment on LT’s performance especially considering he has shown signs of the burst that has been long lost.

  14. Slump Buster says:

    JB-

    Look @ it this way, Brandon Jacobs & Jahvid Best would be solid starter backs & they’re you’re 3rd & 4th backs? Plus Portis & Donald Brown to boot??? Looking smooth…… Keep an eye on MJD. Scout Rashard Jennings as a handcuff… Otherwise you are sittin’ pretty. Nice job and keep the questions coming… I still like Gaffney, but is Massaquoi picked up? Or how about Legedu Naanee? Keep it up and stay on top of the waiver wire…

  15. riverjags says:

    this isn’t forum for John to review your drafts and provide commentary….need to put on Message Boards where they belong

  16. Burton says:

    I must be old school since I don’t know the rules of relatively new technology…
    please someone explain to me what should go on the Blog versus what should go on the Message Boards?

    p.s. I am not being sarcastic. I really want to know, and think others could benefit as well.

  17. John Hansen says:

    All I know is it’s by blog and I can post whatever I want.

    Erok,
    I did a 3-hour radio show in Vegas and watched snoop perform for 16 minutes outside my room. Otherwise, I was in my room working and on a plane working, if you must know. Don’t know if you noticed, but we’ve never been all over everything in the summer like we are this summer. I’m not the site. We have other people who have been properly trained and brought up to speed who know more than anyone else in this industry who are doing a fantastic job.

    I’m overwhelmed keeping the site as up to date as possible for literally 99.8% of our subscribers who aren’t asking questions on the blog. If I had time to answer everything, I would, but I don’t right now. I should probably just close the blog off from comments because it looks bad when I don’t have time to answer but I can’t do everything. If if makes you happy, I’m working about 18 hours a day.

  18. Erok says:

    I bought your Kolb theory in early drafts I did. So far, he has looked jittery & the line has looked terrible. I know it may still all work out, but I dont like how you have abandoned Kolb and jumped on this Flacco band wagon. You also never seem to admit you made a mistake or that you were wrong about anything.

  19. John Hansen says:

    I’m adjusting to what I see in the preseason. That’s what the preseason is for. It would be wrong if I held my opinion from May deep into August even if what I saw concerned me. I’ve loved Flacco from day one and all he is doing is rising up the board based on, again, the preseason.

    I also wouldn’t call moving Kolb from #10 to #12 “abandoning” him.

  20. Matt says:

    John,

    Love the blog! I like that it can hit on a hot topic. Like how LT looks great in the preseason what are your thoughts on the rb situation for the Jets. I think you covered it well. I would have to agree that if he is used right, and not overworked he could be a decent #3 flex guy this year.

    About the other stuff, just make it known that you don’t have time to answer questions other than the blog topic. No need to argue with Erok, on Kolb and his poor pre-season on a blog about LT and the Jets running attack.

    We all know (or should know) that Kolb has 2 games under his belt, and has some risk. All great upside picks do. Philly throws the ball, maybe more than anyone. That won’t change as long as Andy is there. He will struggle at times, he will produce big numbers at times too. It’s as much the nature of the offense as it is Kolbs apparent skills. You were right to hype, and right to caution your readers after two poor performances.

    Keep up the good work!

  21. Erok says:

    Fair enough. I respect you guys & all you do…..have for years, you guys know that. Just know its ok to admit when you make mistakes…..I gotta keep you on your toes!

  22. The Outlaw says:

    Who to start in week 1?

    Michael Turner @ Pittsburgh
    Shonn Greene vs NY Jets
    Arian Foster vs Indianapolis
    Ahmad Bradshaw vs Carolina
    Marion Barber @ Washington

  23. The Outlaw says:

    Oops that would be Shonn Greene vs Baltimore

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