Favre fallout (ok, maybe there will be fallout)

As many are reporting this morning, QB Brett Favre has informed the team that he will NOT be returning for a 20th season in 2010. According to various sources, Favre has said that his injured ankle simply isn’t responding to treatment.

The concern I have is that it’s only August 3rd, so it’s still early. The shift now goes to whether or not Favre will change his mind. But the reality is the possibility of Tarvaris Jackson starting for the Vikings in ’10 is very real.

We’re going to let this story unfold for at least another day or two before making any dramatic changes in our projections, but the obvious moves involve their receivers; it’s bad news for all of them, and all need to be downgraded. Here’s what we’re thinking:

-      Sidney Rice – Lower-end #2 WR.

-      Percy Harvin – Lower-end #3 (his versatility does help his cause)

-      Bernard Berrian – #4 WR

-      Visanthe Shiancoe – Low-end starter/high-end backup

We have to point out that these receivers could potentially (or will definitely) go from playing with one of the best QBs in the history of the league, and the best red zone QB in the league last year, to a QB who leaves a ton of plays on the field, still has mechanical problems, plays too fast, and lacks timing and anticipation.

As for Jackson, while the Vikings desperately need to find a way to get back to running the ball more effectively if Favre is gone, they’ve also formed a talented receiving corps, so Jackson should try to take advantage of that. I’m not optimistic on Jackson overall, but if he’s the guy all season he could produce top-20 totals, helped by his rushing. Of course, if Jackson struggles Sage Rosenfels could get a chance, just as Gus Frerotte did in Jackson’s last season as the starter (2008). Rosenfels has fallen out of favor, but unless Jackson has made dramatic strides that we don’t know about, I think Rosenfels may be a better option, so we can’t advocate Jackson as a strong fantasy backup. We’ll just have to see how the next 2-3 weeks unfold.

The biggest key for the Vikings, of course, is their running game. The OL did gain experience in 2009, so they could be better this year. LG Steve Hutchinson is also healthy (he was not last year), which helps. We expect the OL to block better for Adrian Peterson, but their depth is poor, which is a concern. As for Peterson, his value gets a boost, for sure. He’ll get a few more carries, and he’ll be used a lot in the passing game. This is also good news for rookie Toby Gerhart because Peterson cannot do it all on his own. We can see Gerhart getting 6-8 touches most weeks as long as he’s up-to-speed with the offense and doing well in pass protection. We probably won’t be moving Peterson up to #1 at RB because of the shaky state of the OL.

Again, this could all potentially be a moot point in a few weeks if Favre changes his mind, but it’s certainly time to prepare for life without Favre in Minnesota.

Category: Fantasy Football

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16 Responses

  1. eric says:

    I think Sidney Rice takes the biggest hit with this, given his already troublesome hip injury which will likely linger and affect his production to some degree. Shiancoe may still be ok as I’d expect Jackson to use him as a safety valve when he may not see the rest of the field. The guy in my keeper league who traded away Jonathan Stewart(8th round pick/keeper) in favor of keeping Sidney Rice (16th round pick/keeper) is NOT going to be happy!

  2. Austin says:

    Mike Mayock thinks AP gets 400 touches if Favre is gone. I think this might push AP ahead of CP if he wasn’t already. Am I crazy? We play ppr but also have 3 pt bonus for 100 yards. I don’t see any real talent gap between the two runners and I trust the Minn. offense more. Also Childres has come out and said that AP will be the third down back. Is 60 catches a reasonable number to expect regardless of the Favre situation? Great work guys. I draft Aug. 5th and your site has helped a ton!

  3. Brent says:

    Great info, great site. Your new radio slot (2-5 pm) sucks tho. Some of us have to work, ya know. Really gonna miss the Friday night show.

  4. [...] Favre fallout (ok, maybe there will be fallout) [Fantasy Guru] [...]

  5. John Hansen says:

    We bumped AP up to 55 catches a week or so ago, 60 might be possible. But I do worry about him holding up and the OL is not very good. Johnson’s OL is much better. It sounds crazy since CJ is do dynamic, but I think he might be safer with AP having more upside this year.

    Brent, I do have to say I’m looking forward to having Friday nights off (tho I’m never fully “off” work) from Aug-Dec for the first time since 2003. It’ll help me stay fresh, since I might actually feel I have a little break over the weekend.

  6. Austin says:

    John,

    Thanks a ton for the quick response. I think I might go with a play to win mentality and pick AP. I didn’t notice you bumped his catches up but it makes sense. I’ve seen other sites list him around 35 catches and that makes zero sense. Anyways the site continues to be the best!

  7. Jack says:

    So confusing…So John, Gun to your head in a PPR league (6 points td’s, .1 point for each yard and -2 for turnovers) what order would you personally pick the top 3 back in? (CJ28, AP, MJD)

    Thanks for giving us the best site ever. Since I have joined I have been way ahead of the league in picking players no one even had on the radar!!!!

  8. john says:

    Are we absoutley sure it will be Jackson and not Sage Rosenfels?

  9. PackFan says:

    No need to update anything just yet – unless you enjoy making changes. The Vikes don’t kick off until September 9th.

    This dog & pony show is only warming up.

  10. MinneMatt says:

    I couldn’t agree more in that this show is a month from being over. My prediction is that he WILL be back, but at about $16-18 million in the uncapped year. Not bad for a farewell salary. If he doesn’t show up, I hope they don’t kill Peterson with overuse-too bad we weren’t able to hold onto Chester Taylor.

  11. Burton says:

    John, Horn’s recent article “A Snapshot of an Average Draft” is great stuff! I consider this required analysis every year for anyone serious about winning. Go read the article and soak in the information. John and Horn, please do this article every year.

    I have been analyzing my league’s drafts in exactly this way for many years. I feel it gives me an edge up on the competition, especially when developing a draft plan and quickly adjusting to a dynamic draft.

    This works well for me since the owners in my league don’t turn over much at all. Every year I do last year’s Draft Snapshot analysis based on last year’s draft as a starting point. Then I look back to see how last year compared to years prior.

    The next thing I do is develop a Predicted Draft Snapshot for this year. (I will use Horn’s analysis as a reference as well this year.)

    In absence of a 10-team specific Top 200 list developed/adjusted from current 10-team Draft Snapshot analysis, I have been simply making tick marks on the Top 200 list using my Predicted Draft Snapshot analysis that provides a visual reference specific to my league. This can help anyone not in a 12-team league, since the Top 200 is developed for 12-team leagues.

    Since my league is a keeper-by-round league I also have to factor in the keepers. For example Ray Rice is going to be kept as a 8th round pick this year. So I have to predict every team’s keepers and factor that into my Predicted Draft Snapshot in addition to noting the specific beginning/end of draft rounds on the Top 200 list.

  12. jeremy says:

    guru, when will you be updating your “draft plan” article? Can’t wait….

  13. Nick says:

    New Draft Plan would be great. Also, could you write something (maybe in this blog) about how to draft against you (John)? Most of the people in my league read your draft plan, so I would like some thoughts on drafting against your draft plan. (Hope that makes sense…)

  14. John Hansen says:

    Expanded Draft Plan will be up no later than Monday morning. Been working on it for quite some time, but wanted to get some vibes from training camp and see some ADPs settle in.

  15. Don says:

    If there is any way that the new draft plan can get posted earlier that would be great as I draft tomorrow night! lol But seriously, great site and great info!

  16. John Hansen says:

    send an e-mail (contact us form) don, i might be able to get you a raw version of it.

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