14-Team Expert Draft today

Note: Sorry, I accidentally deleted yesterday’s post about surprise rookie WRs. The guys listed were: Louis Murphy (Oak), Brooks Foster (Stl), Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle), Patrick Turner (Mia), and Mike Thomas (Jac).

I have a 14-team expert draft today for Yahoo! Sports, which should be of  interest for those in 14-team leagues. I drew the #2 pick, which is okay I guess. The good news is that I set up a mock draft using our new Draft Guru tool, set up the mock to go by ADP (for the computer picks), and checked it all out. In less than 5 minutes, I did the draft, and I think I have my strategy. Check out the results of my team drafted. Pretty solid for a 14-teamer, and I didn’t even really pay too much attention to what I was doing while testing this.

Here are my first 15 picks:

#2: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC
#27: Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
#30: Terrell Owens, WR, BUF
#55: Eddie Royal, WR, DEN
#58: Donovan McNabb, QB, PHI
#83: Devin Hester, WR, CHI
#86: Julius Jones, RB, SEA
#111: Derrick Mason, WR, BAL
#114: Michael Bush, RB, OAK
#139: Zach Miller, TE, OAK
#142: Mike Walker, WR, JAC
#167: Greg Camarillo, WR, MIA
#170: Brent Celek, TE, PHI
#195: Rashad Jennings, RB, JAC
#198: Kerry Collins, QB, TEN

That’s not bad at all, and this is the approach I’m probably taking in this draft, from the #2 slot.

Category: Fantasy Football

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27 Responses

  1. jbeau aka Phish fan do or die says:

    Pretty good team. How many WRs you start?

  2. bearfan says:

    I like the team, the main issue to me is a stronger backup qb is needed given Mcnabb’s injury history.

  3. Fightin' Amish says:

    I usually agree with you but I don’t like your McNabb choice. I would have hoped for Romo to slip or reached for Schaub or Cutler or Palmer. Hell I like Eli and Trent better than than Donovan. McNabb can not read a defense to save his life. His mediocre success as a QB and his passing stats are misleading and inflated because his passing TDs and yardage are usually the result of swing/screen passes to Westbrook. I’m sorry to say: “He is not worth the 58th pick”. Goodluck!

  4. CFP Gator says:

    I don’t know John, it’s certainly not a bad team for a 14-team league, but a lot of uncertainty. Outside of MoJo you could raise some serious questions with the rest of the picks. I realize that’s true for just about any player, but for example: TO is getting older and not exactly in a prolific offense. Pierre is on a good offense but has a lot of other weapons commanding the ball. Royal could easily have a sophomore slump, Jones is hardly an elite RB and Duckett vultures TDs. Hester is a solid reach at #83 but hasn’t exactly proved himself as a WR. You get the idea…

  5. Billy says:

    Maybe I like it more than most. Pierre is a talent that Payton cannot deny the ball. Royal will NOT have a sophomore slump, if anything, he will have a much better year. He is too good of a route runner and pass catcher. Hester and Cutler have looked awesome together in camp. Hester could have a breakout year.

  6. spell says:

    That new Draft Guru program you guys created is great. Although it is definitely going to cut into my free time. Haha. I downloaded it last night and spent the better part of 3 hrs fooling around with. Regarding the computer picks for mock drafts, would you recommend using the ADP as you mentioned above?

    Also, one comment I have to the program is that it would be nice to save different scoring systems for later use.

    Looks like a solid draft for a 14 team league.

  7. John Hansen says:

    For the record, I didn’t draft this team in the league. I did in 5 minutes using the draft guru program. The computer picked guys based on ADP, which makes the most sense in terms of predicting the picks other than yours.

    As for McNabb, he was the pick because there were *25* picks until I picked again, I would have been screwed at QB basically. Don’t be a hater; he was 7th in scoring last year in a down year.

  8. Law Firm says:

    It’s a pretty good draft, considering you used the GURU tool. Pretty bummed there’s no Mac based program. FWIW, I think there might be more than 10% Mac users on this site, but I’m just guessing, so who knows.

  9. Former Army Person says:

    There are a lot of similarities between this type of mock and how I construct a target matrix. http://www.fantasyguru.com/football/subscribers/articles/8-14-09matrix.php

    Not surprisingly, a lot of the players identified on the matrix got drafted by John. For those who’ve never played in a 14 team or larger league, the talent pools get thin really fast. You have to adjust your thinking on what a good team looks like and you can be successful with what would be a fatal weakness in a 12 team league.

  10. Seth says:

    Where is the draft guru located on the site?

  11. The Boots says:

    John, i checked out the guru draft and was 50/50 about it. The computer does not deviate at all from the ADP rankings. I am not sure what I expected, but I knew exactly who would come off the board and who be available for my next pick. I could take the same team over and over if I wanted to. Not sure how much help that would be for my real draft.

  12. Steely says:

    Here’s another Mac User saying “Where is the Love” Guru?

    To use your own words, “Don’t be a hater” it’s a Mac World now, get with the program. I was looking forward to this draft tool and you left us out in the cold.

    BTW, this Pierre Thomas Man-Crush you have reminds me of last year’s crush on Marshawn Lynch. That of course, turned into a ridiculous committee with Fred Jackson and I wasted a 2nd round pick on that bum. Don’t you think you are getting a tad crazy what with all of the other weapons commanding the ball on that offense? Granted if Reggie Bush goes down you’ve got a winner but a 3rd rounder is a big pick to whiff on.

    One last question, I use CBSSportsline as my fantasy football site and they have someone called Guru offering up advice on there. Is that you? They recently posted a piece on Pierre Thomas and recommended taking him in the 3rd round. Coincidence?

  13. Mike says:

    I play in a 14 team league… and the talent does get thin quickly. If it’s a 2rb, 3wr, 1 flex league… you are happy to get 10 points out of the flex.

    If you have 2 strong rbs, you are going to be weak in wr, and vice versa. As far as this mock team, as long as pierre does what John says he will do, and with hester as his wr3… that’s solid. julius as the flex is about right… and if michael bush does what John says he will do, he would be an awesome flex. vulture TD and 10 carries… that’s about right.

    i’m going to run the mock and use john’s picks so i can see what he’s picking from.

  14. John Hansen says:

    Boots, if you don’t like the computer to draft from the ADP, you can have it go off our projections, VBD, or rarity value, so you have 4 options.

    Steely, the problem is we barely got the PC version done in time. I’m not ignoring MAC people; we barely got the thing done for let’s be very conservative and say 80% of our readers. If I had a mac and wanted to use it, I would think I could borrow a friend’s laptop for now.

    I was disappointed in Lynch as well, but you act like he was a complete dog. The fact is, he totaled 1300 yards and scored 9 TDs and was 15th in a typical scoring system. We had him ranked I think 10th.

    As for your other question, I don’t own the term “guru” and while it would be nice, I can’t have a monopoly on the Thomas love.

  15. JM says:

    I think Boots’ comment was less to do with having different lists for the computer to pick from, and more about having some sort of random component so that you cant predict exactly who the computer will pick (and consequently have a 100% certainty who will be around for your next pick).

  16. Josh says:

    Mike – ABSOLUTELY loved the target matrix article last year (haven’t read this year’s yet). It has become my favorite draft prep tool. The ONLY downside is the static nature of the spreadsheet. I learned not to try to update every time a new ranking or ADP update was published. Now I’m focusing on doing it now, formulating a general strategy, and then validating with final ranks/ADPs a night or two before the draft.

    Any chance we could see this tool automated? Sucking in latest ADPs/ranks/and populating cells would be incredible

  17. Erik Hilligsberg says:

    Not too shabby there for a 14 teamer…….I’m assuming Peterson went #1? I personally am torn as I have the #1 in the FFOC Draft (1 of 10 Teams)….Do I go with Peterson or MJ Drew. That scoring sytem is very stupid if you ask me, but for a chance at a million bucks, I’ll deal with it. I really think MJD will post better numbers but I cant ignore the all-world ability from AP, who can go off any play. Anyways John, whaddya think at #1 (no PPR) MJD or AP?

  18. eric says:

    I think this is a phenomenal 14 team draft, but if you ever needed a 3rd rb you might be scuffling a bit. Love the upside in jennings! As an aside, who would you pick up with first draft pick between westbrook/portis/p. thomas/r. grant/g.jennings with my team keeping turner/forte/fitzgerald. League is ppr and starts 2rb/2wr/flex. your help and opinion is VERY valued!!

  19. John Hansen says:

    Here’s what I actually drafted in the yahoo league yesterday. Tough draft, everyone is pretty sharp, which is deadly in a 14-teamer.

    Adrian Peterson – #2
    Clinton Portis
    Wes Welker – .75 PPR
    Laveranues Coles – Not sexy, but need receptions
    Philip Rivers
    Devin Hester
    Felix Jones
    Michael Bush
    Dustin Keller
    Mike Walker
    Chris Chambers
    Jeremy Shockey
    Chicago D
    Robbie Gould

    You have to adjust your thinking in a 14-teamer in terms of how you like a squad, and this was an especially tough draft. That said, I was relatively pleased with this team. Pretty solid combination of good fits for the scoring and upside. On the downside, I’m not sure I got tremendous value with any of the picks. This is a 14-teamer with only 4 bench spots, so the WW is huge. Didn’t even bother drafting a backup QB and several others didn’t either.

  20. Idiot Savant says:

    I’m surprised at the no backup QB…ESPECIALLY in a 14 teamer..if you don’t have a decent back up…i would think the pool gets kind of weak quickly…maybe that is it..you waited too long and didn’t see any worth taking? If an injury pops up you’ll work the waiver wire? Risky strategy IMO if that’s what your doing…hope Rivers stays upright!

    Otherwise…LOVE the squad. Waited on TE obviously. Are you confident in Keller and Shockey?

  21. Rdogg says:

    I like every pick here except for Julius Jones. He’s on a bad team with a qb that’s being held together with Scotch tape. More importantly, JJ doesn’t break any tackles and won’t get the goal-line touches. I’d rather have TJ Duckett.

  22. Fightin' Amish says:

    Hey Jon after reading your reply to my comment regarding McNabb at 58th I realized I should shut-up because I don’t know what the heck I’m talkin’ about. I just did 14 team draft and he went at 36th. You got a steal. Sorry about that. Since I gave you some negative critique: turn about is fair play. Here is my team from that draft. I was picking from the seven-spot. What do you think?

    7. LaDaiian Tomlinson RB1
    22. Greg Jennings WR1
    35. Aaron Rodges QB1
    50. Anthony Gonzalez WR2
    64. Ray Rice RB2
    79. Hines Ward WR3
    92. Laverneous Coles WR4
    107. Baltimore Defense
    120. Shon Greene RB3
    136. Zach Miller TE1
    151. Nate Burleson WR5
    164. Vernon Davis TE2
    179. Michael Bush RB4
    192. Kerry Collins QB2
    **** Kris Brown Kicker

  23. steve benton says:

    I LOVE your draft. My 14 team league came out in the first 5 as:
    ( First pick )
    Peterson
    Jennings
    Jacobs
    Eddie Royal
    Schaub

    I like Schaub better because he hit our bonus ( 250 yards ) 8 times in 11 games. i am buying a passing offense that was number 3 ( excluding the coaching change in denver ) in the NFL. Mcnabb would have been fine, as they were number #5 in passing overall in the NFL last year. Now, Mcnabb hit our bonus 8 times as well, which is as good as Rivers and Manning did last year. 25 picks later. Now, Julius Jones is an AMAZING late pick. Wow, what a mis=priced play he is. You take a coach like Mora, give him a one-cut runner like Jones, and he will get that guy 1,000 yards GUARANTEED. Minimum. You all forgot how good he made Warrick Dunn? Where did Atlanta finish in rushing when he designed their offense? Yep, that would be top 3, kids.

  24. Don says:

    Excellent draft John.

  25. Mike says:

    when will the analysis come out(either here or yahoo?)

  26. Mike says:

    I’m drafting tomorrow 14 tm, 7th pick… this is my perfect draft scenario:

    RB (LT, SJax, CJ)
    WR: no matter what rb is there… i’m taking wr… jennings or whoever… i should get a top 7 wr.
    RB: one of: pierre, grant, reggie, kevin smith, ronnie brown, ward in that order
    QB: if rivers or rodgers is here, i’m taking them, if not, i’ll take bpa (witten or WR/Rb)

    then i’ll go from there. but that 4th round will dictate the rest of my draft. i’m pretty confident the first 3 rounds will go as i envision. i hope i can get qb there.

    but in a 14 teamer, here is what is driving my actions:

    taking top 7 wr vs top12 rb (if top 12 rb is there at #22)… if i take the rb, i’ll be chasing wr the rest of the draft.

    the dropoff in 20th ranked rb to 27th ranked rb is greater than the dropoff from 10th-15th ranked wr to 15th-20th ranked rb.

    i think my wr2 in the 4th will be the same calilber in the 5th

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