More mis-pricings (WRs and TEs)

Here’s that follow-up to yesterday’s post with some mis-priced or potentially mis-priced receivers.

Marques Colston – Check his player profile for some reasons to be optimistic on his value in drafts and potential this year.

Braylon Edwards – Again, I think he’s worth the “risk.” You want elite players, game-changers, and Edwards is. If you want to take someone like the slow-ass and far-from-special Jericho Cotchery a couple of rounds later, good luck with that.

Vincent Jackson – He finally added consistency to his repertoire in 2008, and there’s reason to believe he’ll keep that up given his youth, talent, and the play of the QB, with whom he clicks with well.

Anthony Gonzalez – He’s probably not a value but instead he’s a guy who’s draft spot could easily be 1-2 rounds higher in 2010. In this case, you’re targeting a guy who’ll possibly go as low in 2009 as he will for several years to come.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Kind of flying under the radar, but should be solid if the QB is healthy.

Eddie Royal – Don’t be surprised if he leads the team in catches this year. I’m hoping Brandon Marshall plays and if he does I think he’ll take the attention from Royal but won’t match the steady and reliable Royal’s production, given Marshall’s issues.

Santonio Holmes – You can’t dispute he’s a quality player, right? On the heels of so-so year, he’s a nice player to target.

Lee Evans – People probably don’t realize how much TO will help him. He’s the deep threat with the fantasy juice, and he’s the guy who has the chemistry with the QB. I realize there may not be a ton of production to go around, but Evans and TO could account for like 70% of their passing production.

Chad Ochocinco – There’s no question he has the talent to go down as a tremendous value in ’09.

Laveranues Coles – Not getting enough love for a guy who could catch 90 balls.

Torry Holt – Again, I think he’ll be surprisingly solid. He’s not the same player, but this slick and savvy route-runner should be targeted a ton, and he can still get open and haul in the rock. Think Derrick Mason last year (22nd best WR) with a little more juice and upside.

Devin Hester – Still probably my favorite breakout guy this year for obvious reasons. A play-to-win pick you can easily get as your #3.

Kevin Walter – Quality player we were on last year, yet he’s not getting a ton of love.

Mark Clayton – With or without Mason, he’s a nice player with a very good QB. The perfect depth guy and bye-week fill-in.

Ted Ginn – I’m not a big believer, but I do recognize his high-end talent and how he’s slowly but surely progressed. It looks like he’ll take a significant step forward this year.

The Giants used to run the heck out of the ball and then take their shots down the field to WR Plaxico Burress, who was lined up on the outside away from the strongside at the split end position, which oftentimes resulted in single coverage. Thats exactly an environment Hixon may flourish in this year.

The Giants used to run the heck out of the ball and then take their shots down the field to WR Plaxico Burress, who was lined up on the outside away from the strongside at the split end position, which oftentimes resulted in single coverage. That's exactly an environment Hixon may flourish in this year.

Domenik Hixon – People are sleeping on this guy, but he’s a good bet to open the season as their #1. If he continues to improve, he could keep that role all year.

Miles Austin – One of the better breakout candidates this year, no question. Great opportunity and the tools and talent to be a difference-maker if he can handle the attention.

Mike Walker – A very legit breakout candidate as well; wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finished in the top-30 at WR.

Greg Camarillo – A really nice player for this offense, and he’s looked healthy, so worth a look. Only issue is the presence of Bess, who is solid in his own right. Still, getting absolutely no attention in drafts right now.

Devin Thomas – I certainly don’t expect him to bust out, but it could definitely happen, and if he starts he’ll be a nice guy to have for depth and upside.

Brian Robiskie – Should be a PPR machine from day one.

Josh Morgan – Still in the running to start, and they love him. Eventually, my infatuation with Morgan will be proven correct.

Bobby Engram – The new contract KC gave the QB tells us a lot about what they plan to do: they’ll throw it around plenty, and Engram is a young QB’s best friend.

Mark Bradley – On the same team but with more upside potential. I’ve always stated Bradley has the talent to be a #1 in the NFL if he could ever stay healthy.

Chaz Schilens – Might be a decent little possession guy and might be worth a shot.

Louis Murphy – I like Murphy better due to his upside.

Robert Meachem – He’s a guy who could literally move up 50-60 spots if he has a big summer. I’m in more believe-it-when-I see-it mode than anything, but there’s no question he’s in a great spot and has explosive talent.

Demetrius Williams – Unless Mason comes back and/or they sign a veteran, this is it for Williams. He has to stay healthy and come through or else he’ll be working at a Verizon booth at the mall or something. It’s not inconceivable to envision Williams shocking with top-30 numbers if healthy and starting all year.

TEs

Owen Daniels – Once again, he has to be on any list of values. His draft stock has risen the last two years, and rightfully so. But he’s still a nice value. He’s only one of the most talented players at his position, and a huge part of their offense, which is a very good offense. Just 1-2 more TDs for the season and he’s officially a fantasy stud.

Greg Olsen – The best example at the position this year, for sure. No one’s going to take him high, yet he could out-produce Tony Gonzalez, who’ll go 3-4 rounds earlier, at least.

John Carlson – Not exactly getting the love he deserves. I see no reason why he can’t keep the production coming, especially if the QB stays healthy.

Visanthe Shiancoe - Brett Favre struggles a little these days throwing outside the hash marks, so he’s going to be looking for this athletic target a ton. Great upside and value.

Zach Miller – If I told you that you could draft an emerging player who has clearly showed signs of being a high-end guy, is clearly his team’s top receiving target, and who clicks really well with his QB in the 15th round, would you be interested? That’s Miller.

Dustin Keller – The next Dallas Clark should be extremely active for his young QB, who really doesn’t have the arm to test defenses down the field and on the perimeter. So expect Keller to easily finish with top-10 numbers in terms of TE pass targets.

Brent Celek – I’m not 100% on Celek being a breakout guy, but he’s another player it could happen for. They do spread it around and he won’t catch defenses by surprise, but he’s clearly got some juice and overall it’s a nice offense.

Jeremy Shockey – If for no other reason than the fact that fantasy players seem to have written him off, not a bad guy to grab late, especially in a PPR.

Vernon Davis – It’s almost a lock that his career will go down as a disappointment, but he at least has big upside any given week, making him a nice backup option.

Brandon Pettigrew - Might be very solid and he’ll be on the field a ton from day one.

Category: Fantasy Football

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21 Responses

  1. Phil Gecsek says:

    Hey John
    Sure hope your right with these guys, if so ,I should be alright in your showcase league. I have Edwards, Royal and Coles along with A. Johnson. I was planning on playing all four every week. Time will tell.

  2. austin says:

    Is Marshall a stay away from guy this year? He’s a guy I was targeting in the 4th in a 10 team league as a solid #2 who can have #1 upside but his red flags are starting to add up. I’m not worried about the addition of Neckbeard as I don’t think it will affect Marshall’s game much but everything else is causing me to reconsider.

    Gonzalez seems like an ideal guy to grab who will outperform his adp….

    Great work John!

  3. Stretch says:

    John,

    You always mentioning Bad Vibes. Unfornately, this may be happening to the SB Champs Pittsburg Steelers. Big Ben alleged incident is not good going into training camp on July 31.

    I know I should not have a knee-jerk reaction but you may want to avoid or lower your expectations on S. Holmes.

  4. Baller says:

    Chris Henry: mispriced receiver.

  5. John Hansen says:

    That’s a pretty good one, Baller.

  6. Phil says:

    agree with all of them here except for Olsen. reason being, he’s ranked high mostly and i’ve been noticining him going earlier and earlier in mocks. he might bust out big time but don’t know if he fits the “mis-pricing” definition. he’s priced high.

  7. John Hansen says:

    I guess my point with Olsen is, it’s possible he’s drafted in the 4th or 5th round next year. This year, you can get him in the 8th usually.

  8. Baller says:

    John, Olsen’s ADP on fantasyfootballcalculator is 6.10, which is exactly where I see him going in mock drafts. I don’t think I’ve been able to get him in the 8th as of late. Certainly not 3-4 rounds later than Gonzalez. I still like him in the 6th round though, since he is a player to target and reach for.

  9. John Hansen says:

    I’m not sure I believe that to be the case in many drafts. From my experience a guy like Olsen won’t soar 8-9 rounds in 1 year unless he had a huge season the year before, which he did not. People are surely on to him, but I’d still guess he’s a 7th or 8th rounder in most real drafts.

  10. markinsand says:

    We need to keep in mind the players using fantasyfootballcalculator are the diehards. At least 1/3 of your “buddy” leagues etc are not as knowledgeable as everyone doing mock drafts in July on FFC.

  11. Clevage says:

    i would love to get some feedback, if not from the Guru himself, perhaps from anyone else who has participated in a few mock drafts this year.

    i understand the importance of filling your starting lineup, but i have consistently seen teams draft defenses and KICKERS in rounds 8-10 before drafting solid backups for the bench. to me it’s CRAZY to reach for a Minnesota D or a decent kicker like Gostkowski over solid backs at the QB, WR, and/or RB. Defenses and kickers are a dime a dozen.

    with injures and match-ups to consider i like to give myself as much flexibility as possible.

    thoughts?

  12. MGG says:

    Cleavage: I’ve done quite a few draft and outside of a few “Autopicks” and “fill your lineup” guys. I’m seeing defenses being taken in the double-digit rounds by owners drafting, some early reaches but some mockers don’t ave much knowledge of value/players past the first few rounds. As always, an informed owner can always do damage when some guys don’t know what to do. Personally, unless your settings really dictate them to be taken earlier, my K and Def will be taken in the last 2 or 3 rounds. In the past, I’ve gone drafts without taking Kickers and done a 2 for 1 trade to get a better player, and use the extra spot for a Kicker prior to week 1. Good luck.

  13. John Hansen says:

    I’ve been taking my defense in a typical 12-team league about 16 rounds in about the 13th, and that’s only because I’ve been able to get some good ones (Min a few times). PKs, forget, last pick every time. I finally learned my lesson on that.

  14. Clevage says:

    MGG: thanks for your post. Glad we’re on the same page.

    Mr. Hansen: I greatly appreciate you taking the time to post a response. I’m already addicted to this site and a response from the Guru is icing on the cake. You have my subscription for life brother.

    Cheers,

  15. Austin says:

    John who do you see as more likely to bounce back Edwards or Ocho? In a ppr league I’m leaning towards Ocho but its tough as both guys should be #2′s this year with a chance to play like #1′s again. Nice article!

  16. FFRich says:

    John, I’m not sure what to make of yopur TE list. After Witten, Gates, Clark, Gonzalez and Winslow (the top 5 ranked TE’s) you pretty much listed all of the next 9 TE’s that will be drafted.(Pettigrew may be the outlier, although he seems to be rising on draftboards) Do you see one or two of those 9 being more mis-priced than the others or are you just saying all TE’s after the 1st 5 are mispriced, and wait until the 1st 5 are drafted then attempt to get the best value possible from one of the next 9?

  17. Idiot Savant says:

    What is Mark Clayton’s ceiling and floor without Mason in Balt. and assuming Bennett is the last addition at WR in Balt?

    As far as Olson goes…I think not only is the “cat out of the bag”…but owners are drafting him “AS IF” he’s already the 4th-6th best TE in the league (with certainty)… I consistently see him going in the 6th…and in our Guru Mock he went in the 5th round… and in the Analysis auction $200 Cap) league he went for $7 same as Tony Gonzales and Dallas Clark, and Cooley (Daniels went for $8. I paid $11 for Gates, top TE- Witten $13. Shiancoe at $2 seemed the value with other WR’s like Winslow, Scheffler, Carlson, etc.. going $4-$5.

    On ESPN, Yahoo, or FCC mock drafts…Olsen goes around or ahead of Daniels and Cooley often before Tony G…Witten and Gates are the top two then Clark most of the time. I like Olsen…but when guys are seeking him in the sixth round I like more sure things in Gates/ Witten earlier or Shiancoe / Carlson later. If Olsen is there in the 8th to 10th round great. In Gates break out season, you clued me in to his potential and I got him in the 12th or 13th round where the risk/reward was phenomenal. I’d say Olsen has less risk of flopping but higher risk of being overvalued in the draft and probably not the same upside.

  18. Wax Man says:

    It’s hard to disagree with Savant on Olsen. I like that we are finally getting into auction references as 75% of the ones I participate are set up that way. I would love to grab Olsen on the cheap, but will let other owners overpay, while I wait on somebody like Carlson or Zach Miller. This position is very deep this year and I am planning on spending most of my salary cap on top WR’s before they drop off.

  19. John Hansen says:

    Austin: Too early to tell, let’s see the preseason vibes first, but they are close.

    On Olsen, that is a tad out of control. However, toward the end of the preseason, Calvin Johnson was getting a ton of love last year, and deservedly so. I gotta say, Olsen is in that realm in terms of such an obvious breakout guy. I would, however, give him less of a chance to explode and a higher chance to disappoint than Calvin last year.

  20. MI-5 says:

    John: At what point does Tony Gonzalez become mispriced and an extreme value? The mocks I’m seeing have him going in the 8th round or later. At what round would you draft him?

    I’m confused, because for Cutler, I keep hearing “they didn’t get this guy to not let him throw the rock”, yet for Gonzo all I hear is that he will block more. Can’t a case be made that they got a Atlanta got a hundred catch TE to throw him the ball and catch 90+ balls.

    Seems this may be a great value.

    Thoughts please.

  21. Woo says:

    Nate Washington. Should be able to get him in round 15-16. Yes it’s the Titans, but he is the #1 WR and he showed in Pittsburgh he has the ability to play.

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