NFL.com Expert Mock today at 1pm

I’m doing yet another mock draft today, and this one I’m actually going to do well in as opposed to the last one, when I only did “okay” in. The reason I was distracted while drafting this past Friday was because, just when I started to draft, we got an initial shipment of magazines in the office, and Matt Camp and I had to unload a sh&tload of mags and carry them into the building, so I wasn’t paying attention to the draft.

If you ordered a magazine, you should be getting yours some time next week.

I have the 11th pick, so it should be an interesting study on what to do if you’re drafting late in the first. I’m thinking of testing out taking 2 stud WRs with my first two picks and see what I end up with.

I’ll be posting my picks as the draft starts, starting at 1pm ET.

1:30: I’m doing a little experiment, since this is a mock only and it’s a PPR, I’m going to see what I end up with if I go two stud WRs with my first two picks starting out at the #11 hole. The results so far have been pretty decent.

1st: Andre Johnson – A PPR beast and even has upside from 2009.

2nd: Randy Moss - Took him over Wayne for the upside.

3rd: Reggie Bush – Lucky to get him this late in a PPR, of course he’s a risk.

4th: Derrick Ward – Took him over TJones and Grant simply because I like the juice Ward has compared to those two.

It’s 6 points per TD pass, so I don’t imagine I’ll have a crack at Rodgers, Rivers, or Warner in the 5th, but I’d probably take one of those if I do.

5th: Philip Rivers – Little surpised the QBs didn’t go off the board, but they are going to go quickly, and since I pick almost back-to-back I had to take one with one of my next two picks. I chose Rivers over Warner and Rodgers. I love the Charger offense, and I felt like going for a little more upside and juice, which I feel Rivers has (after last year, he obviously does).

6th: Chris “Beanie” Wells – I’m not 100% sold on him, but I love him as a value player to target right around here, in the 6th round. In this spot, he doesn’t have to go nuts to go down as a solid pick; he only has to stay relatively healthy and be just okay, which he should on this team.

7th: Devin Hester – I’m looking really good here, this is my kind of team. Lots of upside and not going out on too big of a limb to get it.

8th: Torry Holt – Oh, man. Darren Sproles goes 2 picks in front of my or else I would really be loving this draft. Since you can start up to 4 WRs in this league, I felt Holt was a nice pick. Really like that value in the 8th round. There are still some serviceable RBs out there for depth, too.

9th: Jamaal Charles – It was either him or Willis McGahee, and even tho McGahee is probably the better value, I rolled with Charles’ upside, plus I couldn’t stand taking McGahee again.

10thVisanthe Shiancoe – I knew the team picking the double pick at the end of the 9th and top of the 10th wasn’t taking a TE, so I took a chance that John Carlson would fall to me.  I got a little goofy with this pick (took him over Zach Miller and Dustin Keller), but I think it’s about 90% Brett Favre is a Viking. If so, this is a pick that may look like a brilliant one in 4-5 months, in case anyone’s watching. Seriously, look out for Visanthe Shiancoe is Favre is a Viking.

11th: Miles Austin – Wanted Mark Clayton, but he went, as did Tim Hightower for my Wells pick, but he went. So I went with more upside with Austin.

12th: Fred Taylor – I guess I’m the only one who think the Pats got Taylor to actually play him. I do like Sammy Morris, but the more I think about it Taylor’s going to go down as a terrific value this year, I’m thinking 900 yards and 6-7 TDs. That’s pretty good for a 12th rounder.

13th: Dustin Keller – You can actually start a TE as a flex, so this was actually a good value in a PPR league. Who else is catching the ball here?

14th: Minnesota - 4-5 DTs had already been taken, and all the good ones would have been gone with 20+ picks before my next pick, so I was lucky to get them, Williams Brothers suspension and all.

15th: Devin Thomas – I cheated a little because it was a mock and I didn’t take a backup QB, so I was able to add even more upside with Thomas, who defintiely has it.

16th: David Akers – One advantage to picking late in the first round in a 16-round draft is that you get to pick a top kicker, at least I picked one of the top guys from 2009.

Final Analysis – Honestly, I don’t think I paid too big of a price not taking a RB until the 3rd round. I may not do that in a non-PPR and I probably won’t, but in a PPR, this could be the move if you’re drafting late in the first. With a break or two, this team could be downright bursting with potential. As it stands, I like it.

Starting lineup:

QB: Philip Rivers
RB: Reggie Bush
RB: Derrick Ward
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Randy Moss
WR: Devin Hester
Flex: Torry Holt or Beanie Wells
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe or Dustin Keller
PK: David Akers
DT: Minnesota

Rest of the Bench: Jamaal Charles, Fred Taylor, Miles Austin, Devin Thomas

That’s a damn good team in a PPR league, and from the 11th spot.

Category: Fantasy Football

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21 Responses

  1. Stretch says:

    John,

    This is what I am accustom to seeing from you. Now thats how you draft. I luv the 2-WR strategy this year. I am definitely using it, if I have a later pick.

  2. Austin says:

    Very good draft. I like Wells as a flex and insurance if Ward ends up splitting too much time with in Tampa. I would be happy with Bush in the third in a 10 team ppr league so getting him that late is huge. Job well done!

  3. Law Firm says:

    This is the draft I have been waiting for, John. I’m drafting from the same spot in a PPR league w/ Guru brethren, so it’s interesting to see your strategy.

    I’ve had Steve Slaton falling to 11 in some drafts, so I usually grab him then Moss with my second round pick. Reggie Bush usually is there in the 3rd as well. Really surprised Rivers lasted that long for you, he’s been off the board in the 4th in some mocks. Been grabbing Hester in the 8th, so if you feel he’s a good value in the 7th, then I’m golden.

    Yeah, drafting with pros and getting the MInny DEF in the 14th is great value. I’m actually toying with taking Drew Brees in the second round in some mocks (usually I get AJ with the 11th, and Bush with the 3rd pick). Thoughts?

  4. hemdilly says:

    Several weeks ago I did a mock on Football Calculator from the No. 9 position, 10 team, 15 rounds, I didn’t pick a K. I took Fitz R1, R2 Andre Johnson. Final team:
    QB: Ryan, Garrard
    RB: R. Bush, R. Grant, Moreno, C.Benson, L.Charles
    WR: Fitz, Andre, A. Bryant, Hester
    TE: Olsen, Carlson
    DEF: Philly, Jets
    I liked the result. It could work. I picked RB’s R3,4,5.

  5. Vito says:

    I’m in a PPR keeper league where we keep 6 guys, but 3 of them have to be coming off of their first or second seasons. Since we start 3 WRs, I’m strongly considering keeping 4 WRs right now because I really think there is more of a drop at WR than RB. It’s harder to find a top WR on the waiver wire than a RB. I am keeping Adrian Peterson, Rashard Mendenhall, and Eddie Royal as those young guys, so I’m actually thinking of keeping Randy Moss, Steve Smith, and Anquan Boldin over keeping Ronnie Brown (a personal favorite of mine too). I just think w/ PPR and the lack of that many WR studs, one can be much better off having stud WRs and grabbing upside RBs and hoping one or two come through. I’ve read in a couple magazines where they’re advocating going two or even three RBs early and going for all the depth at WR. I actually think it’s the other way around.

  6. jbeau says:

    Nice John. I agree with you about Schiancoe. He is a great TE to grab late, if you want to stock up on other positions. Favre is going there, so he will be agood value. I hate drafting McGahee also, but still would have to grab him, since he is the starter and he is basically your 4th RB.

  7. John Hansen says:

    Vito, I agree with you, and this draft above proves that. I got possibly the best two WRs and I’m still in decent shape in a PPR league.

    It does take a little while to get warmed up with these drafts, and I think I am officially warmed up. The last few years I can remember, almost all of the later drafts (at least in July) I’ve done very well in, but it does take a little time to get focused.

    Firm, I’m not feeling the Brees pick. Think about how bad you’d feel if Rivers or Rodgers fell to even the 5th? Or Warner to the 5th or 6th?

    So far, I think these are the basic tenets for 2009 drafting:

    - Hold off until at least the 5th pick for your QB, if it’s a QB-heavy league maybe bump that up a round or two.

    - Don’t take a back with issues in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th because there will be quality guys (granted, who aren’t perfect) in the 5th, 6th, and maybe even 7th.

    - Getting two stud WRs is ideal because you can easily get great options for your #3 and #4.

    - Target quality backup (fantasy) RBs in the 7th-10th, and there are plenty.

    - Don’t be afraid to wait a long time on a TE. I love Greg Olsen, but people seem to be on to him, so Carlson, Shiancoe, Keller are better values.

    - And it seems, I’m liking the Minn defense as a value. The DTs may be out 4 games, but they are really loaded. I love LB EJ Henderson, he’s one of the best defensive players many have never heard of and he’s back this year.

  8. Law Firm says:

    Okay. Again, just toying with the option in the 11 spot (PPR) so the results are mixed depending on the competition. I’m finding most QBs are going WAY too early, so getting Warner, Rivers or Rodgers isn’t likely by the time I pick in the fifth round (which is late in a serpentine draft). I’m usually having McNabb fall to me in that spot, which isn’t a letdown by any stretch, but with a better defense than New Orleans, they won’t have to throw nearly as much.

    In any case, I’m more inclined to go RB/WR or WR/WR in the 11 hole. I’m usually grabbing a combo of either AJ/R. Moss/ or Calvin.

  9. Steve says:

    Firm,
    Im noticing the same thing with the qb going before the 5th so were do you go after rb/wr or wr/wr? by the time i draft later in August qbs will be going by the 3rd round Just windering what you think.

  10. Steve says:

    Im thinking i might try getting a Witten and or a great Qb early based on so much depth at Rb? I think this year is going to be a little tricky on what the best plan will end up working best by year end . Ithink im going to try a couple different plans Also graet draft Guru

  11. Law Firm says:

    Steve,

    Sure the curve could change greatly by August. Some vets may get injured, some rooks could step up. Trades could shake things a bit. All in all, I still think I go TE late, and possibly go as early as the 4th round for a QB. I can’t see going earlier than that, especially in PPR.

  12. John Hansen says:

    Getting a QB earlier if they fly off the board over a RB may be the play, actually. If you have a chance, however, it would be ideal to get a Rivers, Rodgers, or Warner in the 5th or 6th, McNabb, Cutler, and Romo after that, followed by one of the last lines of defense: Schaub, Ryan, and Palmer.

  13. jbeau says:

    Rivers, Rodgers, and Warner are almost always gone by the 5th in every 12 man draft I have done. Depending on where in the 5th I am drafting of course. At some positions, I have had to reach in the 5th just to grab McNabb. Cutler is underrated at this point I think since he went to Chicago. He is usually the last QB to go in all the QBs John has listed above.

  14. John Hansen says:

    QBs tend to go a little later in my leagues. It does appear as if Cutler is as good a value as anyone. I don’t see him failing to put up at least solid numbers, like 3400-3500 yards and 24-25 TD passes. And that’s without an upgrade at WR, which is still possible.

  15. Simon says:

    John, can you give us a list of players you regard as truly “special?” I loved the advice to your friend to take AP over McGahee last year.

  16. John Hansen says:

    LOL, I luv these comments from these nincompoops about this draft

    http://www.nfl.com/fantasy/story?id=09000d5d810daafe&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true

    I guess I don’t know what I’m doing, never mind the fact that I won this league last year at 11-2 and with the most points scored.

    Thank gawd the vast majority of our readers get it.

  17. Law Firm says:

    John,

    Just read the comments. Had to laugh, because I just did a mock with a fellow FG member (Phishfan) and picked AJ,MOSS, and BUSH in that order, and was pissing myself with glee. For the record, Fabiano can’t hold your jock. He’s been crying “LT will be a bust” all over NFL.com. Can’t wait for that to blow up in his face.

  18. RJC says:

    Did you think about taking Kevin Smith instead of Bush in the third round? I’m not sure what to make of Smith this year; he did come on strong towards the end of last season, but that Lions offense is pretty questionable.

  19. John Hansen says:

    Honestly, I’m not feeling Smith much this year. I see little upside, and a little downside, and I was in his corner to an extent last year and he really didn’t prove me wrong. At the end of the day, I can’t get excited about a guy with limited talents on a bad team, and I think Mo Morris is pretty good. He deserves some respect, but that doesn’t mean I have to target him per se. In a PPR, I didn’t think twice about Bush over Smith.

  20. Baller says:

    You should check out David Sabino’s article on CNNSI talking up his team from your draft. His team is horrible! His No. 2 and 3 receivers are DeSean Jackson and Steve Breaston. His tight-end is Anthony Fasano. LOL.

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