Solution to the picking late in the 1st dilemma


I think I might have come up with a solution to the picking late in the first round dilemma, so if you have a late pick, check out the lead story on the site called “Bottom Feeding.”

Category: Fantasy Football

Tagged:

26 Responses

  1. Waterspout says:

    Thanks for the Bottom Feeding article, John. Picking 8 of 10 and 9 of 10 in my two leagues this year. No luck with the draw but suspect it’s payback for being a constant Top 3 player because of FGuru’s help. Your points should come in handy when drafting next week.

    Does Josh Morgan come into play over Rice or Ginn, based upon your prior blog? Just wondering.

  2. CFPGator says:

    Great stuff John, thanks. Drafting 12th in a 12 team league, I’m currently waiting on my 9th pick and followed (without knowing it) a plan fairly close to yours. Went: Marshawn/T.O/Calvin/Santonio/Cutler/K Smith/Chr Johnson/R Rice. Now that round 9/10 are coming up I might be able to grab Schaub, then probably another RB, and look to WR/TE on the next pass…

  3. chipva says:

    Sweet! Thanks John. I’m 9th in a tough 10-team league. I was praying you would post this before my draft tonight when I read your comment in the normal Draft Plan. You rock!

  4. Jimmerz says:

    Seeing columns like this really reinforces in my mind that an auction is the only way to go. It blows my mind that ANYONE still does straight drafts.

  5. senoromar says:

    Great article, and much needed because unlike you I’ve been very unlucky this year and keep drawing picks 10-12.

    One question though, say you picked at the 12/13 snake where you are guaranteed to get both your guys and TO were available… would you still go RB-RB or in that case go with a lynch/portis/LJ + TO combo?

  6. jm says:

    Getting ready for the WCOFF and thought I would try something different from the 6 spot in a satellite league. Decided to concentrate on WR. Was actually happy with the lineup. Took Moss first, followed by Larry Johnson, then Chad Johnson, Greg Jennings, Edgerrin James, Deangelo Williams, Derek Anderson and Vernon Davis. I finished with QBs: Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme
    RBs: Larry Johnson, Edgerrin James, DeAngelo Williams, Ahman Green, Kolby Smith and Darrn Sproles.
    WRs: Randy Moss, Chad Johnson, Greg Jennings, Deion Branch, Eddie Royal, Josh Morgan, Courtney Taylor and Joe Jurevicius.
    TEs: Vernon Davis and Kevin Boss
    It will be interesting to see if this is another year that the WR position dominates.

  7. trai says:

    Hey, I drafted at the 12 spot last weekend and did exactly this strategy, worked great. Rb-Rb only works at the bottom this year, I got LJ and Ryan Grant. At the 3-4 turn I got Welker (ppr league) and Holt fell to there. At the 5-6 Cotchery and Thomas Jones were available. At the 7-8, Cutler was still on the board as was selvin young. Schuab didn’t make it to the 9-10 in my league, but delhomme was there, and there were plenty of TEs left so I was able to get Daniels. At the 11-12 Sidney Rice was still available, though Ginn Jr. was well gone by then. The only thing I’d consider changing is to consider getting a top end QB at the 3-4. Since I went RB/RB at the top, I didn’t feel free to go wr/wr, I felt obligated to, so I passed up Brees to take Holt/Welker, but if I had waited, I could have gone Cotchery/Bowe at the 5-6, and then had tradebait w/Cutler at 7.

  8. spudballscott says:

    Perfect timing on your article, as my league drafts this Sunday and I’m in the 10 spot (after last year’s championship win, thanks in part to FG.com). It’s a tough league with the same group in place for five years now, so drafting strategy pointers are welcome!

    We’re transitioning out of a snake draft into auction, so we’re running on odd hybrid: first 2 rounds snake, then switch to auction starting round 3.

    I was leaning strongly RB/RB on the 10/11 turn, so your article confirms my plan. Great work in the later round analysis too, I’ll be sure to figure it into my auction strategy.

  9. senoromar says:

    Here’s how I did using this strategy tonight picking from the 12th spot. Overall I think it turned out well. This is a 12 team, non-ppr, 19 round, RB hungry league with 4pt/passing td, -2int, 1QB, 2RB, 1RB/WR, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 1K, and 1 superflex (any offensive player). Not sure how useful my draft results are considering QB’s went flying off much earlier because of the superflex, but here it is anyway:

    RB/RB : LJ + MJD
    WR/WR : Brandon Marshall + Calvin Johnson
    RB/QB : Kevin Smith + Matt Schaub (missed selvin by 2 picks; WR avail: jennings, evans, hines)
    WR/QB : Chris Chambers + Jake Delhomme (RB avail: deangelo)
    WR/RB : Sidney Rice + Maurice Morris
    TE/DEF: Owen Daniels + Dallas Cowboys
    RB/WR : Fred Jackson + Josh Morgan
    Rounds 15-19: misc bench plus K

    Pretty solid, especially once Marshall gets back.

  10. John Hansen says:

    Wow, very solid. The plan worked!

  11. cmv131 says:

    I am 9th in a 10 team draft, but your article almost describes my team entirely. My 1st 10 picks below

    Thoughts? (PPR league, QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,W/R,W/T)

    9 – Barber
    12 – LJ
    29 – Jamal Lewis
    32 – Steve Smith
    49 – Greg Jenninings
    52 – Santonio Holmes
    69 – Bowe
    72 – Hasselbeck
    89 – Heap
    92 – Gallaway

    Hasselbeck was the 9th QB taken and Heap was the 10th TE

  12. sjc3jump says:

    I had the last pick in a 10 team league. I hadn’t read your article before the draft, but this is how my team turned out:

    QB:Matt Shaub
    WR: Terrell Owens
    Steve Smith
    Marvin Harrison
    RB: Marshawn Lynch
    Willis McGahee
    TE: Ben Watson
    K: David Akers
    DEF: Indianapolis

    backup QB: Jon Kitna
    backup WR: Reggie Brown, Jerry Porter
    backup RB: Reggie bush, Felix Jones, Ricky Williams

    I took Lynch and then Owens, and then McGahee and Smith as my first 4.

  13. dhumes0524 says:

    I enjoyed this article. I picked 7th in my 12 team league last week, and after reading this article, feel I have ended up quite alright. I selected the players below in order:
    Clinton Portis
    Marshawn Lynch
    Plaxico Burress
    Antonio Gates
    Torry Holt
    Donald Driver
    Rashard Mendenhall
    Matt Forte
    Jay Cutler
    Matt Shaub
    Javon Walker

    I don’t feel my receivers have the “flash” that many other picks do, but they are still quite steady and reliable, albeit Plaxico and Torry can get the injury bug for a game or two.

    Thanks for the informative article!

  14. jgl52 says:

    Fantastic article/strategy. I read it an hour before drafting last in a 10 team, 15 round draft (public, “competitive” league). I’m pretty jazzed about the results. Here’s what went down:

    1.10/2.1: Barber/Grant
    I was considering taking LJ over Grant but I’m rather skeptical about KC’s O-line so I opt for Grant despite his nagging hamstring soreness.

    3.10/4.1: Plaxico Burress/Jamal Lewis
    Burress is a definite cut above the “1A” WRs you mention and I felt lucky to land him at the end of the third in a league where you start 3 WRs. I’m pretty high on Lewis and think he will outperform 4 of the 5 RBs drafted before him in the third round (MJD*, Maroney, Jacobs, Turner, McGahee).

    5.10/6.1: Hines Ward/Thomas Jones
    Kellen Winslow Jr. was taken one pick before my turn– I would have grabbed him. I think this was a little early for Ward but he certainly wouldn’t be available at the next turn. There were comparable wideouts on the board but I opted for Ward over the likes of Dwayne Bowe (far superior offense, better nose for the end zone) and Marvin Harrison (health concerns). In retrospect, maybe I should have gone WR/WR here but I’m a big fan of running back depth and Jones was simply far too good a deal to pass up at this point in the draft.

    7.10/8.1: Chris Cooley/Selvin Young
    I feel a little bad about settling for Cooley here. Three receivers I was targeting (Evans, Coles, Cotchery) were selected earlier in the round as were three TEs (Clark, Shockey, Davis); I guess I don’t have the faith in Owen Daniels that you do and I got worried about a run on TEs in the following rounds (with Cooley being several notches above those remaining). Really I should have drafted Derek Anderson here (great value) but I estimate his downside to be greater than that of any of the remaining QBs. Selvin Young… that pick was an absolute coup.

    9.10/10.1: Eli Manning/Anthony Gonzalez
    Much to my shock Anderson actually fell into the ninth round but was taken six picks earlier. Had he been available, he would be the obvious choice. Still pleased with Eli though: I think he’s primed for a breakout season and pairing him with Burress could pay great dividends. At this turn it was imperative I draft my 3rd WR. Burleson was taken just a few picks before, and I opted for Gonzo over folks like Donte’ Stallworth and Patrick Crayton who went later in the round.

    11.10/12.1: Philip Rivers/DJ Hackett
    I needed WR depth, especially since Burress and Gonzalez share a bye week. I was hoping to land Berrian or Galloway; I didn’t and figured Hackett to be slightly less of a gamble than the remaining WRs (Ted Ginn Jr. and a bunch of rookies). Without a top-tier QB, I wanted to make sure my back-up could be reliable on a weekly basis. I have my reservations about Rivers but Garrard and Favre were taken, so he was the best available QB. Looking back I could have waited as Jason Campbell fell to the final round and I consider Rivers only marginally better than Campbell.

    13.10/14.1: Chicago/Robert Meachem
    Just filling holes at this point but I was pleased to get the Chicago D so late. I may end up dropping Meachem but I like his upside.

    15.10: Chris Johnson!
    For at least five rounds I was wondering how Johnson was still available. I’m already rich with running backs and I’m without a kicker but there’s no way I could pass on Johnson here.

    While I feel I drafted a solid team (thanks in no small part to your advice), were this league to have a flex position instead of a 2RB/3WR roster, I’d be in like Flynn. I need to upgrade my receiving corp some but that shouldn’t be too difficult to pull off in a trade with my loaded bench of start-worthy RBs. Ideally, I’ll pull off a 2-for-1 before the season starts so I don’t need to drop someone to pick up a kicker. Overall, I have no serious concerns about my team.

    Thanks again for the superb article! Hopefully the above results will lend further creedence to your strat and serve as another viable blueprint for people drafting with late picks. Best regards.

  15. John Hansen says:

    Nice job, man you stole Johnson. Jeez.

  16. Argonauts says:

    I drafted 11th out of 12 managers on Thursday night, prior to reading John’s article, and ended up with a similar team to what he comprised. I used the RB-RB and then WR-WR strategy, but went RB-TE for the 5th & 6th before taking a QB in the 7th.

    1.(11) Marshawn Lynch -Was hoping Lynch/Barber @ 11 & 14, but Barber went 7.
    2.(14) Ryan Grant -LJ went pick before, but still content with Grant.
    3.(35) T.J. Houshmandzadeh -Solid bet to match last years 12 TD’s & 1000+ yds.
    4.(38) Steve Smith -Even w/ 2 game suspension, will see plenty Delhomme to Smith TD’s.
    5.(59) Selvin Young -Ecstatic he was still on the board at 59. Fell into my lap.
    6.(62) Jason Witten -Believe he’ll be most productive TE this year. Had to take him.
    7.(83) Marc Bulger -Not to keen on him, but could be worse.
    8.(86) Donald Driver -Best days are past him; will put up moderate #’s for a WR3.
    9.(107) Dallas -Again Cowboys D slip and I was more than happy to select.
    10.(110) Nate Kaeding -Always seems to be in or around the top 5 K’s.
    11.(131) Ray Rice -With the starting RB ?’s, elated he still on the board here.
    12.(134) Maurice Morris -Please see above comment.
    13.(155) DeSean Jackson -Sleeper pick w/ Curtis & Brown injuries at WR.

    What do you think? Feedback is much appreciated from all Fantasy Junkies, like myself.
    With depth at RB, I could make a move to upgrade QB or WR3.

    Currently on Waivers are Sidney Rice(WR3) & Chris Perry (possible RB starter–Rudi?), both of whom I am going to pay attention to in the coming weeks.

  17. trhawley says:

    I have always been a fan of the RB-RB start, but I will also be drafting 8th today in a 10 team league and finding it hard to pass on Tom Brady in the 1st if he is available or Tony Romo on the 2nd pick

  18. OchoBlinko says:

    John,
    You’re article could not come at a better time. I am drafting 12th in a 14 team league, and I have run through almost all the scenarios in my mind, with a huge one being “Do I go WR/RB” or “RB/WR” or “WR/WR”- hence getting two absolute studs…worst case being “TO/Fitzgerald” however, I didnt EVER consider going RB/RB until I read your article and now, the wheels are moving in this fantasy freak’s minute mind. :)
    Would you still subscribe to your theory if your starting (3)WRs as we are in a 14-team, and people are a bit WR biased in my league? You also have made me reconsider LJ..in my mind, I had, in my rankings:
    Lynch, MJD, Grant, and then LJ, however, now with MJD’s mysterious “sprain” coupled with Freddy T still looking like an ageless beast in JAX, I am thinking that LJ slips in there. Would you take LJ over Grant?
    I am not in a PPR league. I would love to hear your thoughts for a 14-team league and your theory. I am HOPING for Lynch to fall to me, and in our league I have no prayer of getting M.Barber. I do have a SLIGHT chance of getting Portis, because other than the guy drafting 6th, no one else sees Portis’ value. Anyway, if Lynch/Portis/Barber gone, who do you take at 12…Grant? LJ? Lets say we go LJ for kicks, but say Grant and MJD fall to the 13/14/15/16 somewhere, wouldnt it make sense for me to grab one of the stud WR at that point -pick 17- and go RB/WR? If so, would it not make more sense to grab the STUD WR I want first at 12, thus eliciting a run on the WR (which will happen with #14 for sure), and get Grant/MJD on the swing back? It will leave me with probably:
    WR1= TO or Wayne
    RB1= Grant/LJ/MJD

    Thoughts/comments?

  19. kevpaq says:

    John,

    Thanks for your help with my draft this weekend. I am in a 10-team, no ppr, 6pt/TD league. I had the 10th pick, and I was thrilled with what fell to me…early on!!

    1.10/2.1 – Marshawn Lynch/Marion Barber
    3.10/4.1 – T.J. Houshmandzadeh/Santonio Holmes
    5.10/6.1 – Ben Roethlesberger/Selvin Young
    7.10/8.1 – Bernard Berrian/Dwayne Bowe
    9.10/10.1 – David Garrard/Felix Jones
    11.10/12.1 – Tony Scheffler/Randy McMichael
    13.10/14.1 – Justin Gage/Mason Crosby
    15.10/16.1 – Lawrence Tynes/GB Def
    17.10 – NY Jets Def

    I am starting to worry about how thinks will shake out with Young and Bowe. I am also not happy with my TEs. Luckily, I think I have a pretty solid group of starters at QB, RB and WR.

    Should I try and skim the list of non-drafted players before the season starts, or stick with this crew?

  20. Outwatcher says:

    Great article John!

    Is there anyway you could mock a 2 QB draft and give a writeup about it?

    It seems to be the only thing missing from the site and these type of leagues are getting increasingly popular.

    Thanks!

  21. ddlewis7 says:

    Great article; I actually drafted 10th in a 12 team league just before reading this. To be honest, I am not a fan of the RB-RB approach, but I was very tempted to employ it this year… LJ was very tough to pass on at the 15th pick, I ended up taking Wayne instead. Anyway, this is my resulting squad, I think I have a solid team, but I would greatly appreciate your thoughts / comments:

    1. (10) Marion Barber
    2. (15) Reggie Wayne
    3. (34) Laurence Maroney
    4. (39) Anquan Boldin
    5. (58) Lee Evans
    6. (63) Kellen Winslow
    7. (82) Kevin Smith
    8. (87) Anthony Gonzalez
    9. (106)Derrick Mason
    10.(111)David Garrard
    11.(130)Reggie Williams
    12.(135)Chris Johnson
    13.(154)Justin Gage
    14.(159)Kurt Warner
    15.(178)Indianapolis
    16.(183)Rob Bironas
    17.(202)Detroit

  22. bomaboma says:

    Thank you John !!!

    I was picking 11th in a Twelve team draft. We followed your strategy and I think it worked out:

    Gore
    Portis
    A. Johnson ( Can’t believe he was still available end of third.)
    S. Holmes
    B. Marshall
    M. Schaub
    C. Johnson
    N.Folk ( I know it was early but I wanted him.)
    N.Burleson
    R. Williams
    M.Morris
    T.Hightower
    R.Meachem
    Z.Miller
    C.Pennington
    Jets D

    Thanks again for your advice.

  23. vferrari says:

    Great advice! Followed to the letter as the 10th pick, and here’s how it turned out, in draft order:

    M. Lynch
    M. Barber (yes, was still there, really!)
    S. Holmes
    B. Marshall (hope the suspension gets reduced, Calvin was gone)
    D. Bowe
    S. Young
    Chambers (up to now, pretty much right on plan!)
    Rivers (QB’s went early so had to stop messin’ around)
    M. Harrison (I talked him down and he stuck around until the 8th!)
    A. Rogers (Like I said, QB’s were done)
    K. Walter (10th round gift)
    M. Morris (Sound familiar?)
    A. Vinetieri (dummies were grabbing kickers now)
    Draft Ended

    Picked up JAX defense, Fred Jackson to handcuff Lynch, and Trent Edwards to round out my steller QB corps.

    Wuddya think?

  24. narcotico says:

    Believe it or not I read this article AFTER picking the team below. Our strategies(and favored targets) we’re almost identical!

    1. (12) Frank Gore
    2. (13) Clinton Portis
    3. (36) Wes Welker
    4. (37) Calvin Johnson
    5. (60) Thomas Jones
    6. (61) Jerricho Cotchery
    7. (84) Owen Daniels
    8. (85) Brett Favre
    9. (108) Dallas
    10. (109) Robert Meachem
    11. (132) Maurice Morris
    12. (133) Jon Kitna
    13. (156) Rob Bironas
    14. (157) Ladell Betts
    15. (180) Chris Brown
    16. (181) Jabar Gaffney

    Really stoked to have Gore/Portis there at 12/13

  25. slacks28 says:

    coincidentally I used almost your exact bottom feeding plan for my draft on the 23rd and tonight was the first time I read your post about it. This is how my draft went.

    12 Team League, #10 draft slot:

    1. (10) Clinton Portis RB
    2. (15) Maurice Jones-Drew RB
    3. (34) Plaxico Burress WR
    4. (39) Ben Roethlisberger QB
    5. (58) LenDale White RB
    6. (63) Roddy White WR
    7. (82) L.J. Smith TE
    8. (87) Santana Moss WR
    9. (106) Felix Jones RB
    10. (111) Ted Ginn Jr. WR
    11. (130) Eddie Royal WR
    12. (135) Philip Rivers QB
    13. (154) Derrick Ward RB
    14. (159) Andre Hall RB
    15. (178) James Hardy WR
    16. (183) Randy McMichael TE
    17. (202) Jeff Reed K
    18. (207) Jesse Chatman RB
    19. (226) Houston DEF
    20. (231) Michael Bennett RB

    Since then I have dropped michael bennett and picked up Lamont Jordan (who will be the #2 in NE) I have also dropped Jesse Chapman and picked up Antonio Pittman (who was #1 until SJ reported and re-signed. Last but not least, I dropped Randy McMichael in favor of Anthony Fasano, I just like the fact that Miami has no depth at WR and C. Pennington doesn’t have the strongest arm in the league which really bodes well for the TE position, plus they have a running game.

    Over-all I would say that I had a pretty darn good draft and I am feeling really good about this season. The only two places I am trying to Upgrade are Def and TE, but I am in no hurry, I think I am pretty solid up and down.

  26. waszer says:

    John,

    Just drafted the night before the season starts. After reading the article I hoped to get a late round slot. I got the 10th and was happy. This was a non ppr, 12 man league drafting 16 rounds. Other than the 2 glaring picks (D and K) I followed your template and I feel that I have one of the strongest teams (other than at TE and I can make a move if Tony does not start strong). Heck I got 3 of your “Fantastic Four”! I will save this article for next year…I have a short attention span!

    Thanks!

    Gore, Frank SFO RB
    Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
    Marshall, Brandon DEN WR
    Johnson, Calvin DET WR
    Holmes, Santonio PIT WR
    Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB
    Chargers, San Diego SDC Def
    Johnson, Chris TEN RB
    Morris, Maurice SEA RB
    Folk, Nick DAL PK
    Scheffler, Tony DEN TE
    Galloway, Joey TBB WR
    Ginn Jr., Ted MIA WR
    Walter, Kevin HOU WR
    Morris, Sammy NEP RB
    Booker, Lorenzo PHI RB

Leave a Reply